Higher highs / higher lows off the reopen low, still capped under Friday's late-session supply.
Early Asia reopened with a small gap below Friday's 156.87 close, then ground out a chain of higher lows from 156.72 back to 157.05, where price is pressing the session high at 157.11 and the EMA50. Friday's move was the dovishly-delivered BoJ hike that spiked the pair to 158.05 before it bled back to the 156.60 low; ATR(14) at just 8 pips reflects thin reopen liquidity rather than genuine compression.
Support: 156.90, 156.72, 156.60
Resistance: 157.11, 157.44, 158.05
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.11 session high puts Friday's 157.44 swing back in play
A close below the 156.90 pullback low breaks the rising higher-low sequence off the reopen low
Loss of 156.60 friday low would confirm the gap-down as directional rather than liquidity noise
No Japanese data in the coming session; post-FOMC Fedspeak is the only scheduled catalyst and could reprice the pair quickly in thin Asian hours
23:33 UTC
Mild intraday uptrend off the reopen low, capped at session high · RSI 55 · price 156.993
Higher lows since the Sunday reopen, first push rejected under 157.11.
Friday's 158.05 spike on the dovish BoJ delivery was fully retraced into a 156.60–156.90 base, and the Monday Asia reopen has ground back above the friday close with EMA20 at 156.90 now under price. The 157.11 session high sits on the 38.2% fib of the Friday decline and capped the first attempt; RSI(14) ~55, ATR(14) ~10 pips in thin liquidity.
Support: 156.90, 156.867, 156.604
Resistance: 157.108
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.11 session high / fib 38.2 would extend the higher-lows sequence
Close back under 156.867 friday close returns price into the 156.60–156.90 base
Break of the rising higher-lows line from the 156.72 reopen low flattens the intraday grind; loss of 156.604 friday low confirms a lower low
Fed's Goolsbee 10:30 UTC is the only scheduled driver before London and could reset this read
23:18 UTC
Post-spike pullback, now flat · RSI 52 · price 156.939
Friday NY reversal base, Asia grinding inside 156.60-157.11.
Friday's dovishly-delivered BoJ hike spiked the pair to 158.05 before NY handed the entire move back into a 156.60-156.90 base. Thin Monday Asia trade poked the session high at 157.11 and was rejected straight back to 156.94, leaving price pinned between ema20 and ema50 with RSI(14) at 52 and ATR(14) near 10 pips.
Support: 156.89, 156.72, 156.60
Resistance: 157.11, 157.51
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 157.11 session high would extend the Asia break toward friday supply at 157.51
Loss of 156.72 asia low re-opens the 156.60 friday low and the base lows
Liquidity is thin this early in Asia; Fed's Goolsbee later today is the first scheduled event risk
Basing under 157.00 after Friday's drop; HH/HL chain in Asia.
Friday's dovish-delivered BoJ hike spiked the pair to 158.06 before a sharp unwind to 156.60, leaving a 156.60–157.01 base that has held all session. The Monday Asia open gapped slightly lower at 156.81 and has ground higher in a HH/HL chain to press the 157.01 range top, with EMA50 near 157.03 capping and RSI(14) at 58 — price back above EMA20 at 156.83. ATR(14) is a thin 9 pips in early-Asia liquidity.
Support: 156.83, 156.72, 156.60
Resistance: 157.01, 157.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.01 range top and EMA50 at 157.03 puts the 157.51 swing high back in play
Loss of the 156.72 asia low reopens the 156.60 friday low and the range base
Liquidity is thin this early in Asia — first London flows can invalidate the current micro-structure
Fed's Goolsbee (10:30 UTC) is the first event risk for the USD side of the read
156.60-156.94 range after the 158.05 rejection, marginally rising lows.
Friday's dovish BoJ delivery spiked the pair to 158.05 before a full reversal into a 156.60-156.94 range for the rest of the NY session. Monday's Asia open gapped a few pips lower, held the 156.72 asia low and is now pressing the 156.94 session high with RSI(14) at 44 and ATR(14) around 8.5 pips — no structural break yet.
Support: 156.72, 156.60
Resistance: 156.94, 157.03, 157.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.03 prior high would end the range read and put the 157.44 swing high back in focus
Failure to hold the 156.60 friday low confirms a lower low and breaks the rising lows
Liquidity is thin in early Asia; Fed's Goolsbee (10:30 UTC) is the first scheduled driver of this session
22:18 UTC
Range, no directional impulse at the open · RSI 45 · price 156.88
Friday's BoJ spike to 158.05 fully unwound; basing between 156.60 and 156.90.
The dovish BoJ delivery drove Friday's spike to 158.05, but the NY session reversed the entire move down to 156.60, leaving a 30-pip base into the close. Monday's Asia open gapped a few pips lower and is now pressing the 156.90 range top with RSI(14) back at 45 and ATR compressed to ~9.5 pips in thin liquidity.
Support: 156.60
Resistance: 156.90, 157.07
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.90 range top puts the 157.07 swing high back in play
Loss of the 156.60 range floor confirms a lower low versus Friday's base
Thin early-Asia liquidity is deflating ATR; Fedspeak later in the day can reset the range
Lower high then 156.60–156.90 range; thin weekend reopen.
Friday's BoJ-driven squeeze to 158.05 was fully unwound in late NY: an 80-pip slide off 157.89 into 156.60, then a flat 156.60–156.90 range for the last ~20 bars. Sunday reopened with a 5-pip gap lower at 156.81 and near-zero-range bars; RSI(14) at ~41, ATR(14) compressed to ~10 pips.
Support: 156.60, 156.50
Resistance: 156.90, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.90 range top would put the 157.16 swing high back in play
Loss of the 156.60 range low exposes the 156.50 swing low
Thin Asia-reopen liquidity can exaggerate the first moves; Fed's Goolsbee (Mon 10:30 UTC) is the first scheduled driver
156.60–156.90 range after a failed push to 158.05.
Friday's post-BoJ spike to 158.05 unwound through the NY session, leaving price compressed into a 156.60–156.90 range that has retraced roughly 57% of the week's rally. The new week opened thin, gapping about 6 pips below Friday's close to 156.81 — above the ema20 but still capped by the range top, with the 156.60 base defended twice into the close.
Support: 156.60, 156.75
Resistance: 156.90, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.90 range top would put the 157.16 swing high back in play
Loss of the 156.60 base confirms a lower low and voids the range read
Early-Asia liquidity is minimal — the first prints of the week are unreliable; Fed's Goolsbee at 10:30 UTC is the next scheduled driver
Tight range after a sharp decline off 158.05; lower highs capped, floor holding.
USDJPY spiked to 158.05 on the dovishly-delivered BoJ hike to 1.25%, then gave back roughly 145 pips into the NY close and has since ground sideways between 156.60 and 156.90. The new week opens with near-zero-volume bars at 156.81 — mid-range, above EMA20 but still under EMA50, RSI(14) mid-50s and ATR near 9 pips.
Support: 156.60, 156.50
Resistance: 156.90, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.90 range top would end the consolidation read and put 157.16 swing high back in play
Loss of the 156.60 range floor exposes the 156.50 fri low
Liquidity is thin until Asia proper; the opening gap bars carry little structural weight
Fed's Goolsbee at 10:30 UTC is the first event risk capable of shifting this range
The dovishly-delivered BoJ hike drove the Asia-session spike to 158.05, but NY hours faded the whole move and price has spent the last three hours pinned in a 156.60–156.92 range on shrinking ranges into the close. Last bar at 156.867 sits at the range top with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR(14) around 9 pips — compression, not direction.
Support: 156.60
Resistance: 156.92, 157.16
What it said to watch
A 15m close above 156.92 invalidates the range read and reopens 157.16 prior swing
Loss of the 156.60 range floor confirms continuation of the NY downswing
Thin JPY docket — Fedspeak (Goolsbee) is the first catalyst able to shift this read