USD/JPY AI Live Scan, daily chart, Monday, 21 September 2026

Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.

21:04 UTC

Downtrend, corrective bounce in progress · RSI 51 · price 157.201

Lower highs since late July; two-week rebound off the 152.89 low, still capped under EMA(50).

The four-month picture is a chain of lower highs: the late-July slide from 163.99 stalled into a five-week 157.5–160.2 range, that range broke lower in early September and price bottomed at 152.89, the 4-mo low, on 8 September. The last two weeks have retraced a little over a third of that decline, helped by the hawkish FOMC dot-plot lift and the BoJ's dovishly delivered hike to 1.25%, but the 158.05 prior high and the still-falling ema50 at 158.10 have capped the rebound and Friday's reported rate check knocked the pair back under 157. RSI has cycled from oversold back to 51, price sits above ema20 at 156.60 while remaining below ema50 — a corrective, not yet trend-reversing, configuration.

Support: 156.60, 155.29, 152.89

Resistance: 158.05, 158.10, 160.19

What it said to watch

  • Daily close above the 158.05 prior high and the 158.10 ema50 would break the lower-high chain that has defined the last two months
  • Loss of the 156.60 ema20 and then the 155.29 prior low would resume the September leg toward the 152.89 4-mo low
  • Wed 23 Sep US S&P Global PMIs (Services f/c 56.0, Manufacturing f/c 53.5) are the week's only top-tier data and can reset this read
  • Unscheduled MoF/BoJ intervention or further rate-check headlines remain the sharpest single-day risk in the 158–160 area

11:46 UTC

Downtrend, corrective bounce underway · RSI 52 · price 157.201

Lower highs since the late-July peak; two weeks of higher lows off 152.89.

The dominant D1 structure has been lower since the 163.98 peak in late July, with a second leg down in early September that bottomed at the 152.89 sept low; EMA(50) near 158.3 is still falling and price sits below it. The last two weekly cycles have built a chain of rising lows and price has reclaimed EMA(20), with Friday's dovishly-delivered BoJ hike to 1.25% and soft core CPI squeezing the crowded long-yen book up to a 158.05 prior high before a reported rate check pulled the close back under 157. Recovery is now testing the underside of the broken July-August range, the area where supply capped repeatedly through August.

Support: 155.33, 152.89

Resistance: 158.05, 158.42, 160.00

What it said to watch

  • A daily close above the 158.05 prior high and the 158.42 intervention tripwire would confirm the corrective leg extending toward the 160.00 round number, with MoF headline risk rising into it
  • Failure to hold the 155.33 swing low would break the rising lows sequence and re-expose the 152.89 sept low
  • US flash PMIs Wed 23 Sep are the week's key print for the carry leg; a soft services number would remove the yield support behind this bounce

All markets that day · Today’s USD/JPY Live Scan in the terminal