21:05 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce into resistance · RSI 52 · price 157.38
Lower highs / lower lows since late July; half-retrace of the July-September leg.
Two-month downtrend off the 163.99 high in late July, marked by lower highs at 160.27 and 158.05 and a lower low at 152.89 on 8 September. The last six sessions have retraced roughly half of that dominant swing — the 50% fib sits at 158.44 — with last week's BoJ hike to 1.25% and its dovish 7-2 vote lifting price to 158.05 before a reported rate check knocked it back under the falling EMA(50) at 158.03. Price holds above EMA20 at 156.67 and RSI has cycled back to ~52 from the early-September washout, so the weekly cadence is a recovery inside an intact lower-high chain.
Support: 156.67, 155.30, 152.89
Resistance: 158.03, 158.44, 160.27
What it said to watch
- A daily close above 158.44 breaks the chain of lower highs and invalidates the downtrend read
- Failure to hold 155.30 prior lows would confirm the rising base off 152.89 has given way and re-open the cycle low
- US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT and any MoF/BoJ intervention headline could materially shift this read