11:47 UTC
Downtrend from the 163.99 top, corrective rebound in progress · RSI 52 · price 157.487
Lower highs since mid-cycle peak, but higher lows off 152.89 over the last two weeks.
The dominant D1 structure is still the two-stage decline from the 163.99 swing high — first the single-day 580-pip break, then the second leg that bottomed at the 152.89 cycle low — but the last ten sessions have built a chain of higher lows back to the 158.05 prior high. Price sits above a rising EMA(20) near 156.73 yet has failed to close above EMA(50) around 157.98, leaving the rebound inside the upper half of the 152.89–163.99 fib range. The BoJ's dovish hike and hawkish Fed repricing are the stated drivers of the recovery in the pair, with RSI(14) back at a neutral 52 after the oversold washout at the lows.
Support: 156.58, 155.29, 152.89
Resistance: 158.05, 159.52
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 158.05 prior high would extend the higher-low sequence toward the 159.52 swing high
- Rejection at the 158.05 area keeps the rebound corrective within the downtrend from 163.99
- Failure to hold the 156.58 swing low on a daily close breaks the rising-lows structure and re-exposes 155.29
- Tokyo intervention headlines above 158 are the main event risk to a multi-week rebound read
- US flash PMIs and Fed commentary this week are the near-term driver behind the dollar leg of this move