Post-PMI consolidation 158.19–158.40 with higher lows.
The US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC broke the 157.77–157.99 London range. NY stalled at the 158.40 session high, and since the NY low at 158.105 price has held a tight 158.19–158.36 consolidation with rising lows. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 into the Tokyo reopen, with price pressing the range top and holding above the 23.6% of the PMI leg fib.
Support: 158.192, 158.105, 158.02
Resistance: 158.365, 158.398
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 session high clears the range top and brings the 158.50 psych level into view
Loss of the 158.19 rollover low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 38.2% PMI leg fib near 158.16, then the 158.105 ny low
A break below the 158.02 post-pmi low would retrace most of the PMI breakout
Tokyo reopens from 00:00 UTC and MoF capacity returns; intervention jawboning near 158.40–160 could sharply shift this read
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC is the next USD catalyst ahead of US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC
Range 158.10–158.40 after NY impulse; early Asia inside it.
The S&P Global PMI beat drove a NY-session leg from 157.77 to 158.28, and the session high at 158.40 capped twice after that. Price has since held a 158.10 range low to 158.40 range, and early Asia is rotating between the 158.19 asia low and the 158.35 asia high, just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 158.19, 158.10, 158.02
Resistance: 158.35, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.40 session high breaks the range and opens the 158.44–159.53 zone flagged for intervention risk
Failure to hold the 158.10 range low exposes the 158.02 post-pmi low and the 50% pmi leg fib near 158.08
Tokyo reopen could bring MoF jawboning near these levels, and Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could shift the read
A break of the asia low at 158.19 or the asia high at 158.35 sets the direction of the Asian range
158.10–158.40 range after PMI breakout; rising lows, capped at 158.40.
The US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC drove the PMI leg from 157.77 to the 158.398 session high, clearing the 158.00 round number. Supply capped the 158.40 area twice during NY hours. Price has since held a 158.10–158.40 range, with rising lows from the 158.105 swing low to the 158.19 overnight low in thin early Asia trade.
Support: 158.19, 158.105, 158.00
Resistance: 158.398
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.398 session high breaks the post-PMI range, but it runs into the 158.40 area JPY desks flag as the start of the intervention tripwire zone
Tokyo reopen and any MoF jawboning could shift the read sharply
Loss of the 158.19 overnight low and the rising-lows trendline exposes the 158.105 swing low
A break of the 158.105 swing low reopens the 158.00 round number, near the PMI leg fib 50%
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC can move US yields before London
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC broke the pair out of its 157.77–157.99 London range. Price has since held a 158.10–158.40 NY band, capped at the 158.398 session high. It is now drifting near EMA20 in thin early-Asia trade (Japan holiday), with RSI(14) flat at 50 and ATR near 6 pips.
Support: 158.192, 158.105, 157.97
Resistance: 158.398
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 session high opens the 158.44–159.53 resistance zone
Loss of the 158.19 late low exposes the 158.105 NY low, near the 50% of the PMI leg fib
Break back below the 157.97 pmi base would unwind the breakout
Williams at 08:10 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF/BoJ intervention headlines as Japanese desks return could trigger a sharp yen spike
PMI breakout, then 158.10–158.40 range with rising lows.
The US flash PMI beat drove a 30-pip breakout from the London high near 157.99. Price has since held a 158.10–158.40 range, with the NY high at 158.40 capping twice and rising lows at the 158.02 pmi low, the 158.10 swing low and the 158.19 late low. Early Asia is flat at 158.28, sitting on EMA20 near the 38.2% fib of the PMI leg, RSI neutral near 51.
Support: 158.19, 158.10, 158.02
Resistance: 158.36, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 ny high breaks the range and the UOB resistance
Failure of the 158.19 late low and the rising support line exposes the 158.10 swing low and the 38.2% fib
Repeated rejection at the 158.36 range cap keeps the range intact
A loss of the 158.02 pmi low would erase most of the PMI breakout
MoF/BoJ intervention headlines as Japanese desks return from Silver Week could gap price lower
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC Thu could shift this read
Post-PMI range 158.19–158.40 above prior Asian range.
London cleared the 157.42–157.67 Asian range, then the US flash PMI beat lifted the pair ~25 pips through 158.00. The 158.40 session high rejected price twice in NY, and the pair has since held a 158.19–158.40 range into thin early-Asia trade. The ny swing low at 158.10 sits between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the PMI leg, and RSI(14) is neutral near 52.
Support: 158.19, 158.105, 158.02
Resistance: 158.398, 158.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 session high opens the 158.44 resist band flagged as the next cap
Break of the 158.19 rollover low exposes the 158.10 ny swing low, then the 158.02 pmi dip low near the 61.8% fib
Japanese desks return from Silver Week; MoF verbal-intervention headlines could jolt the pair
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC Thu could shift the read
22:16 UTC
Post-PMI breakout, now sideways · RSI 48 · price 158.292
158.10–158.40 range with higher lows under a flat session high.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC drove a breakout from 157.77 to 158.28. NY then capped twice at the 158.40 session high and price settled into a 158.10–158.40 range. Early Asia is holding a higher low at the 158.19 rollover low, with price flat on EMA20 and RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 158.19, 158.10, 158.02
Resistance: 158.40, 158.44
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.40 session high breaks the post-PMI range and puts the 158.44 band in play
Loss of the 158.19 rollover low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 158.10 swing low, then the 158.02 pmi low
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) on Thursday could materially shift this read
MoF or BoJ intervention headlines as Tokyo desks return from Silver Week could trigger a sharp yen spike
22:01 UTC
Post-PMI uptrend, stalling into a range · RSI 45 · price 158.259
158.02–158.40 range after breakout; lower highs under the session high.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC broke USD/JPY out of the 157.42–157.71 Asian range. Since then price has held a 158.02–158.40 range: the 158.40 session high was rejected twice, and a lower high near 158.36 formed into the rollover. Price sits at 158.26 in thin post-NY trade, just above the 158.22 late low, with the 158.10 swing low near the 38.2% of the PMI leg.
Support: 158.22, 158.10, 158.02
Resistance: 158.36, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 session high opens the 158.44–159.53 resistance band
Break of the lower-high trendline from 158.40 invalidates the stalling read
Loss of the 158.22 late low, then the 158.10 swing low, exposes the 158.02 post-PMI low
Tokyo desks returning after Silver Week: MoF/BoJ intervention rhetoric could trigger a sharp yen spike
21:46 UTC
Post-PMI breakout, now consolidating · RSI 48 · price 158.24
158.10–158.40 range since the PMI spike, drifting to lower half.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC broke the pair out of the 157.43–157.68 Asian range and London's 157.99 top. Since then it has held a 158.10–158.40 range, with the session high at 158.40 capping twice during NY hours. After the rollover it has slipped to the late low near 158.22, below the 23.6% level of the PMI leg fib, with RSI flat near 48.
Support: 158.22, 158.10, 158.02
Resistance: 158.36, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.10 swing low opens the post-pmi low at 158.02 and the 38.2% PMI leg fib near 158.16–158.08
Close above the 158.36 range top and the 158.40 session high (UOB resistance) extends the breakout
Loss of the 158.22 late low in thin Asia session trade keeps price in the lower half of the range
Tokyo reopening after Silver Week: any MoF intervention rhetoric could trigger a sharp snap-back
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could reset the range
PMI breakout into a 158.10–158.40 consolidation, tightening late NY.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC lifted USD/JPY through the 157.99 pre-PMI high. The move stalled at a 158.40 session high that was tested twice, and the 17:30 UTC dip held the 158.10 swing low near the 38.2% of the PMI leg fib. Price is now compressing between the 158.24 range low and a 158.36 lower high in thin post-NY trade, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 158.24, 158.105, 157.99
Resistance: 158.365, 158.398
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 session high clears the double test and brings the 158.44 zone into view
Break of the 158.24 range low exposes the 158.10 swing low, then the 157.99 pre-PMI high
Tokyo reopening after Silver Week: any MoF intervention rhetoric in the Asia session could produce a sharp yen snap-back
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday could shift the read
Post-PMI breakout, tight range under session high.
The strong US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC lifted the pair clear of the 157.43–157.71 Asian range and through 158.00. The session high at 158.40 capped two tests during NY hours, and the 158.105 swing low held near the 50% retracement of the 157.77–158.40 leg. Price has since compressed in a 158.25–158.40 band into the rollover, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 158.25, 158.105, 158.02
Resistance: 158.40, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 session high, also the base of the flagged 158.40–158.44 cap, opens the 158.50 psych level
Loss of the 158.25 range low exposes the 158.105 swing low and higher-lows line; below the 158.02 PMI low the breakout read fails
MoF or intervention headlines in thin Asia session liquidity could trigger a sharp JPY snap-back
Williams (08:10 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 201K) Thursday could materially shift this read
Post-PMI range 158.10–158.40 after breakout above Asian range.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC pushed USD/JPY out of the 157.43–157.71 Asian range and through the 157.99 London high. NY then capped twice at the 158.40 session high, just under the 158.44 UOB cap, and late-NY trade is compressing between 158.25 and 158.36. The 158.10 swing low held near the 38.2% fib of the post-PMI leg, and RSI(14) is neutral around 54.
Support: 158.105, 158.02, 157.767
Resistance: 158.398, 158.44
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.40 session high puts the 158.44 UOB cap in play, where intervention risk rises
A break of the 158.10 swing low exposes the 158.02 post-PMI low and the 157.77 pre-PMI low
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
MoF rate-check or intervention headlines in thin Asia session liquidity could override the range structure
20:46 UTC
Post-breakout uptrend, flattening in range · RSI 51 · price 158.315
PMI breakout, then 158.10–158.40 range.
The hot US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC broke the London high at 157.998 and ran price to a 158.398 session high. The pullback to the 158.105 swing low held near the 50% fib of the PMI leg. Since then NY has held a flat 158.10–158.40 range, with late-session price at 158.32 and RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 158.105, 158.02, 157.998
Resistance: 158.398, 158.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.398 session high and the 158.44 cap zone opens the 159.53 area, where MoF intervention headline risk rises
Failure to hold the 158.105 swing low exposes the 158.02 spike low and the 157.998 London high
Williams (08:10 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
Any MoF or rate-check headline in thin post-NY liquidity could produce an outsized JPY move relative to the 8–9 pip ATR
Post-PMI consolidation 158.10–158.40, rising lows into the cap.
The hot US flash PMIs sparked a 30-pip leg from 157.77 to the 158.40 session high, taking the pair clear of the Asian range (157.43–157.71). Two rejections at 158.40 since then have held price in a late-NY consolidation, with higher lows at 158.105 and 158.25 building on a rising-lows trendline and price holding in the upper half of the PMI leg fib.
Support: 158.25, 158.105, 158.02
Resistance: 158.40, 158.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 session high and the 158.44 cap opens the upper end of the zone flagged for intervention risk
Break of the 158.25 higher low and the rising-lows trendline puts the 158.105 swing low back in play
Loss of 158.02 pmi low retraces most of the PMI leg fib
Any MoF or rate-check headline could snap the pair lower in thin late-NY/Asia liquidity
Williams at 08:10 UTC Thu on October hike odds could shift this read
Post-PMI range 158.10–158.40, higher lows into late NY.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC broke USDJPY out of the London range below 157.99. NY has since held a 158.10–158.40 band, with the session high rejected twice at 158.398; the 17:30 swing low sat between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the PMI leg. Late NY is building higher lows along a rising trendline, and price is back just under the session high with RSI(14) at 57.
Support: 158.246, 158.105, 158.02
Resistance: 158.398, 158.44
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.398 session high clears the double rejection and exposes the 158.44 cap zone, where intervention sensitivity rises.
Losing the 158.246 higher low breaks the rising trendline and puts the 158.105 swing low back in focus, with the 158.02 pmi dip low below.
Thin post-NY and Asia liquidity leaves the pair open to MoF or rate-check headlines; Williams speaks at 08:10 UTC Thursday, ahead of jobless claims at 12:30 UTC.
The US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC broke price out of the London range near 157.99. Since then, late-NY trade has held between the 158.105 swing low and a flat 158.40 session high, with rejection there on three tests. Higher lows off the 158.02 post-PMI low and a hold of the 38.2% fib keep price just under the 158.40–158.44 cap zone, RSI(14) neutral at 56.
Support: 158.246, 158.105, 158.02
Resistance: 158.398, 158.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 session high and 158.44 cap zone breaks the flat top; intervention headlines grow more likely on a push through
Loss of the 158.246 micro low returns price to the 158.105 swing low
Break below 158.105 ends the higher lows read and exposes the 158.02 post-PMI low
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
Any MoF rate-check or verbal intervention headline in thin late-NY/Asia liquidity
Post-PMI range 158.02–158.40, lower high attempts capped.
USD/JPY broke out of the 157.43–157.71 Asian range in London, and the strong US PMI beat drove a spike off the pre-pmi base at 157.97 to 158.28, extending to a double high at 158.396/158.398. Late NY is now ranging mid-way, with supply capping just under the 158.44 zone base and the 17:30 UTC swing low at 158.105 sitting near the 50% fib of the PMI leg. RSI(14) is flat near 48.
Support: 158.105, 158.02, 157.97
Resistance: 158.398, 158.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.40 double high and the 158.44 zone base opens the 158.44–159.53 resistance band
Failure to hold the 158.105 swing low exposes the 158.02 pmi dip low and the 61.8% fib of the PMI leg
A break below the 157.97 pre-pmi base would unwind the PMI breakout
MoF verbal warnings or rate-check headlines in thin Asia session liquidity could reverse the move sharply
Post-PMI range 158.10–158.40 above a higher-low chain from Asia.
London broke above the Asian range and the US PMI beat drove a 50-pip leg from the 157.77 pre-PMI low. Twin rejections at the 158.40 session high have since capped the pair, while buyers defended the 158.10 swing low near the 50% fib. Late NY is ranging inside 158.10–158.40 with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 158.105, 158.02, 157.767
Resistance: 158.398, 158.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 session high puts the 158.44 cap in play, the zone where intervention rhetoric typically escalates
Failure to hold the 158.10 swing low opens the 158.02 pmi low and the 61.8% fib
Loss of the 157.767 pre-pmi low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
Any MoF or rate-check headline near 158.40–160 could trigger a sharp JPY snap-back
Post-PMI range 158.02–158.40, higher low at 158.105.
The US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC carried the pair through the London high near 158.00 to a 158.40 session high. Supply capped that level twice during NY hours. Late NY is now ranging inside 158.02–158.40 above a higher swing low at 158.105, with RSI(14) back to neutral and price hugging EMA20.
Support: 158.105, 158.02, 157.998
Resistance: 158.398, 158.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 session high and the 158.44 cap breaks the range top
Failure to hold the 158.105 swing low exposes the 158.02 post-pmi low and the 157.998 London high
MoF/intervention headlines in thin late-NY/Asia liquidity could snap the pair lower fast
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and jobless claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday could shift this read
Post-PMI range 158.02–158.40, higher low at 158.10.
USD/JPY cleared the Asian range early in London and gapped through 158.00 on the US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC. Through NY hours it has held a 158.02–158.40 range. The session high at 158.40 capped twice just below the UOB cap at 158.44, while the 17:30 dip held a swing low at 158.10, above the post-PMI low. RSI(14) is neutral near 51.
Support: 158.10, 158.02, 157.99
Resistance: 158.40, 158.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 session high and the 158.44 UOB cap extends the post-PMI breakout
Failure to hold the 158.10 swing low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 158.02 post-pmi low
A break under 158.02 puts the 157.99 London high and the 50% fib retrace back in play
MoF / rate-check headlines near 158.40–160 could reverse this read abruptly
Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC on Thu are the next scheduled risk
158.02–158.40 range after breakout, twin highs capping.
The 13:45 UTC flash PMI beat lifted USD/JPY from the 157.767 pre-PMI low through Friday's 158.05 high. Price has since held a range in NY hours. The session high at 158.40 was rejected twice, just under the zone base at 158.44, while the 158.105 swing low held between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the PMI leg. RSI(14) is mid-range near 56 late in the NY session.
Support: 158.105, 158.02, 157.767
Resistance: 158.398, 158.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.44 zone base clears the double rejection at the 158.40 session high
Break of the 158.105 swing low exposes the 158.02 post-pmi low and the 50% fib
Loss of the 158.02 post-pmi low reopens the 157.767 pre-pmi low
MoF or rate-check headlines near 158.40+ could trigger a sharp JPY snap-back in thin Asia liquidity
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
NY breakout above 158.00, then a double top at 158.40 with a pullback to 158.10.
Hot US flash PMIs drove the NY break above the 157.99 pre-NY high and the 158.05 two-week high, then price stalled twice at 158.40, a double top at the UOB cap. A 17:15 UTC drop found a 158.105 pullback low near the 38.2% of the NY leg; late NY, price sits back at the 158.21 neckline, below ema20, with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 158.105, 158.02, 157.99
Resistance: 158.25, 158.398
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 double top opens the 158.44–159.53 intervention-risk zone
Recovery through the 158.25 minor high puts the double top back in question
Loss of the 158.105 pullback low and rising-lows trendline confirms the double top, exposing the 158.02 ny low
Failure at 158.02 puts the 157.99 breakout level and the 61.8% fib retracement at 158.01 back in play
Tokyo returning from Silver Week raises MoF jawboning / rate-check headline risk in the Asia session
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
Double top at 158.40, first lower high at 158.25, pulling back into the PMI leg.
The hot US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC drove USD/JPY through the 158.05 two-week high. NY hours then capped it with a double top at 158.396/158.398, right at the 158.40 intervention-risk zone. The late-NY drop to the 158.10 swing low leaves price below EMA20, sitting on the 38.2% of the PMI leg fib, with RSI(14) around 45.
Support: 158.105, 158.02, 157.767
Resistance: 158.251, 158.398
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.10 swing low exposes the 158.02 pmi low and the 50% PMI leg fib near 158.08
Staying capped under the 158.25 lower high keeps the double top at 158.40 in play; a close above 158.40 invalidates it
Loss of the 157.77 pre-pmi low would unwind the whole PMI breakout
Tokyo returns from Silver Week in the coming Asia session; MoF jawboning or rate-check headlines could spike JPY
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and jobless claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday could shift this read
Post-PMI HH/HL chain broken by drop through 158.21 neckline.
The US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC drove a breakout from the 157.77–157.99 London range, through the 158.05 two-week high. Two tests of 158.40 printed a double top near the UOB cap after London close. The 17:30 bar broke the 158.21 neckline to a 158.10 swing low, and price now sits near the 38.2% of the PMI leg with RSI back at 53.
Support: 158.10, 158.02, 157.77
Resistance: 158.21, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.21 neckline negates the double top read
Loss of the 158.10 swing low exposes the post-PMI low at 158.02 and the 61.8% of the PMI leg
Break under 158.02 puts the pre-PMI low at 157.77 back in view
Clean close above 158.40 moves price into the 158.44–159.53 intervention-risk zone
Tokyo jawboning or rate-check headlines could trigger a sharp JPY snapback
Fed's Williams (Thu 08:10 UTC) and Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled USD risk
Post-PMI breakout, now ranging 158.21–158.40 with higher lows.
London broke the Asian range top at 157.71, and the US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC drove price from the 157.77 pre-PMI low through the 158.05 prior high. A 158.02 wick retested that level and held. Late NY is now ranging between the 158.21 swing low and a flat 158.40 session high, tagged twice, just under the 158.44 intervention zone. RSI(14) is neutral near 58.
Support: 158.21, 158.05, 157.77
Resistance: 158.40, 158.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 session high puts price into the 158.44 intervention zone, where MoF/BoJ jawboning risk rises
Failure to hold the 158.21 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 158.05 prior high
Loss of 158.05 would put most of the post-PMI leg back in play toward the 157.77 pre-PMI low
Tokyo returning from Silver Week in the Asia session raises rate-check headline risk
17:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 62 · price 158.385
Post-PMI breakout, higher lows under 158.40.
USD/JPY cleared the 158.05 prior high on the 13:45 UTC US PMI beat. The 14:45 UTC dip to 158.02 held as a retest, and the 158.21 swing low has kept the higher-low chain intact through NY hours. After London close, price is testing the 158.40 session high a third time with RSI(14) near 62, not stretched.
Support: 158.21, 158.05, 157.77
Resistance: 158.40, 158.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 session high puts the 158.44–159.53 intervention zone in play
Failure to hold the 158.21 swing low breaks the post-PMI higher-low chain
Loss of the 158.05 prior high unwinds the breakout toward the 157.77 pre-PMI low
MoF/BoJ jawboning or rate-check headlines as Tokyo returns could reverse the PMI leg sharply
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC Thu is the next scheduled USD risk
The flash PMI beat drove a range break above 158.00 and the 158.05 two-week high, after an Asian range capped near 157.71. Since then NY hours have printed higher lows at the 158.02 breakout lvl and the 158.21 swing low beneath the 158.40 session high. RSI(14) is near 66 and ATR is about 10 pips, with the 158.44 interv zone directly overhead.
Support: 158.212, 158.02, 157.767
Resistance: 158.396, 158.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 session high puts price into the 158.44 interv zone, where MoF jawboning and rate-check risk rise as Tokyo returns
Loss of the 158.21 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 158.02 breakout lvl, near the 50% of the PMI leg
A move back below the 157.77 pre-pmi low negates the breakout read
Unscheduled intervention headlines in thin Asia session liquidity are the main near-term risk; Williams and jobless claims come on Thursday
17:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 71 · price 158.377
Higher lows since PMI spike, capped at 158.40.
The beat on the US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC broke USD/JPY through the 158.05 prior high from a 157.77 pre-pmi low. The 158.02 dip held and was retested. After London close, price is back at 158.38, just under the 158.40 session high, with the 158.21 swing low marking the latest higher low and RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 158.21, 158.05, 157.77
Resistance: 158.40, 158.44
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.40 session high puts price into the 158.44 interv zone, where Tokyo intervention risk is highest.
Failure to hold the 158.21 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 158.05 prior high.
A loss of the 158.05 prior high puts the PMI leg back toward its 61.8% retracement and the 157.77 pre-pmi low.
MoF/BoJ jawboning or rate-check headlines as Tokyo returns from Silver Week could reverse the PMI leg sharply.
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC Thursday could shift the read.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC cleared the 157.99 london high and Friday's 158.05 area. The pair then printed a session high of 158.396, just under the 158.40 cap. In late NY hours it is holding 158.24–158.40 after demand stepped in at the 158.02 pmi dip low, with the 24h trendline from 157.23 still rising well below price.
Support: 158.02, 157.99, 157.767
Resistance: 158.396, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.02 pmi dip low and 157.99 london high would put the breakout back inside the pre-PMI range, exposing the 157.767 ny swing low.
Acceptance above the 158.396 session high and 158.40 cap moves price into the zone where Tokyo intervention risk is highest.
Tokyo returns from Silver Week in the coming Asia session; MoF jawboning or rate-check headlines could reverse the PMI leg sharply. The 50% and 61.8% levels of the pmi leg fib sit at 158.08 and 158.01.
A break of the 24h trendline would end the higher-low sequence in place since yesterday's NY session.
London broke above the 157.43–157.71 Asian range. The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC then drove a 30-pip breakout through Friday's 158.05 prior high. A 14:45 UTC dip to 158.02, near the 61.8% of the PMI leg fib, held before a new session high at 158.40, and price is now compressing just below it into the London close with RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 158.165, 158.05, 157.77
Resistance: 158.396
What it said to watch
A close back below the 158.165 swing low exposes the 158.05 prior high and 61.8% PMI leg fib retest zone
Acceptance above the 158.40 session high moves price into the 158.44–159.53 zone where intervention risk is flagged
A break of the 157.77 pre-PMI low and rising trendline would invalidate the intraday uptrend read
Unscheduled MoF/BoJ jawboning or rate-check headlines as Tokyo returns from Silver Week could snap the structure
PMI-driven range break, holding above reclaimed prior high.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC broke the pair out of its 157.77–157.99 London range, taking it through the 158.05 prior high. A dip to 158.02 found demand near the 61.8% retracement, and NY hours have since stalled just under the 158.40 session high. RSI(14) is easing to around 62.
Support: 158.05, 157.99, 157.77
Resistance: 158.40, 158.44
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.05 prior high and the 158.02 dip low would mark a failed retest and put the 157.99 London high back in play
Clearance of the 158.40 session high brings the 158.44 interv zone into play, where MoF/BoJ rate-check headlines are more likely
Loss of the rising lows from the 157.77 NY open low exposes the pre-PMI range
Tokyo's return from Silver Week and Thursday's US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since London open, post-PMI breakout retested.
London broke the Asian range high near 157.67. The blowout US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC then drove USD/JPY through the 158.05 prior high, and the dip to 158.02 held as a retest near the 61.8% of the PMI leg fib. Price is now stalling just under the 158.40 session high late in NY hours, with RSI(14) near 67 and ATR around 12 pips.
Support: 158.05, 157.77
Resistance: 158.40, 158.50
What it said to watch
Session high at 158.40 is the zone to monitor for rejection or break; a clean M15 close above it opens the 158.50 round number
M15 close back below the 158.05 prior high would negate the breakout retest
Loss of the 157.77 pre-pmi low and the rising intraday support line would break the London HH/HL chain
Tokyo intervention or rate-check headlines in the 158.40+ zone could trigger a sharp reversal
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC Thu) could shift the read as Asia hands over to London
Breakout above 158.00, higher low at 158.17, retesting session high.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC drove USD/JPY through its 157.99 pre-pmi high and the 158.05 prior high. The 14:45 UTC flush to the 158.02 spike low was bought within the bar, and a 158.17 higher low followed. Price is back at the 158.364 session high late in NY hours, far above the 157.43–157.71 Asian range, with RSI(14) near 65 and not stretched.
Support: 158.17, 158.02, 157.99
Resistance: 158.364, 158.40, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.364 session high puts the 158.40 resistance and then the 158.50 round number in play; the digest flags this area as intervention-rhetoric territory
Break below the 158.17 higher low exposes the 158.02 spike low; losing that and the 157.99 pre-pmi high would undo the breakout read
Tokyo returns from holiday Thursday: MoF/BoJ verbal warnings or rate-check headlines could reverse the leg sharply at any time
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC Thursday could shift the read if he hedges on an October hike
HH/HL chain; breakout above 158.05 retested and held.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC pushed price through 158.05 to a session high of 158.36. The pullback low at 158.02 held near the 50–61.8% retracement of the PMI leg, and price is back at 158.28 with RSI(14) at 65. London and NY have both traded well above the 157.43–157.71 Asian range, and the rising support from the Asian-session lows remains intact.
Support: 158.02, 157.77
Resistance: 158.36, 158.44
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.02 pullback low reopens the 157.77 pre-PMI low and the rising support line
Close above the 158.36 session high brings the 158.44 intervention zone into play; MoF/BoJ headlines can reverse moves sharply as Tokyo returns Thursday
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC Thu and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asian low; breakout above 158.00 holding on first retest.
USD/JPY broke above the 157.43–157.71 Asian range in London, then spiked through 158.00 on the 13:45 UTC US flash PMI beat to a 158.36 session high. The first NY-session pullback held the 158.02 pmi dip low near the 61.8% of the PMI leg fib. RSI(14) has cooled to ~61 and rising support from the Asian low is intact.
Support: 158.02, 157.77, 157.71
Resistance: 158.36, 158.44
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.02 pmi dip low puts price back inside the pre-data range and exposes the 157.77 pre-pmi low
Break of the 157.77 pre-pmi low and the rising support line would return focus to the 157.71 asian high
Push through the 158.36 session high runs into the 158.44 interv. zone, where MoF/BoJ jawboning risk rises
Unscheduled intervention or rate-check headlines could reverse the breakout sharply
Hot US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC drove a breakout through the 158.00 round number, extending a London climb that had already cleared the 157.43–157.71 Asian range. The NY session high printed at 158.36, just shy of the 158.44 mof zone. Price is holding near 158.25 above the 38.2% fib at 158.13, with RSI(14) near 67 and ATR(14) about 10 pips, and the pre-release dip held the 157.77 swing low.
Support: 158.13, 158.00, 157.77
Resistance: 158.36, 158.44
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 38.2% fib at 158.13 puts the PMI leg under pressure, with the 158.00 round number and 61.8% retrace just below
Acceptance above the 158.36 session high brings the 158.44 mof zone into play, where Japanese intervention and jawboning risk rises
Failure to hold the 157.77 swing low unwinds the PMI breakout
Unscheduled MoF rate-check or intervention headlines could materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended after data spike · RSI 70 · price 158.31
HH/HL chain from Asian low; PMI breakout above 158.00.
London broke the 157.43–157.71 Asian range higher and ground up to 158.00. The 13:45 UTC US flash PMI beat then drove a 30-pip breakout through the pre-PMI high, printing a 158.36 session high early in the NY session. RSI(14) sits near 70 just under the 158.40 intervention zone flagged in the yen digest, and ATR has roughly doubled on the release.
Support: 158.13, 158.00, 157.77
Resistance: 158.36, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.13 post-pmi low (38.2% fib) signals the breakout is fading
Failure to hold the 158.00 pre-pmi high (61.8% fib) returns price to the London range
Rising trendline support near 157.80, above the 157.77 pre-pmi low, marks the intraday HL chain
Rejection or break at the 158.36 session high and 158.40 intervention zone
MoF rate-check or intervention headlines could reverse the move sharply
Higher lows since London; spike high at 158.279, holding near highs.
London broke the Asian range (157.43–157.71) higher. The sharp US flash PMI beat then pushed the pair through the 157.998 prior high to a 158.279 pmi high, and early NY is holding 158.13–158.25 above the spike low with RSI(14) near 71. Price now sits inside the 158.05–158.40 zone where the digest flags intervention risk.
Support: 158.127, 157.998, 157.767
Resistance: 158.279, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.127 spike low exposes the 157.998 prior high and the 50% retrace of the pmi leg fib near 158.02
Loss of the 157.767 pre-pmi low breaks the intraday trend support and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 158.279 pmi high brings UOB resistance at 158.40 into play
MoF/BoJ verbal intervention or rate-check headlines as Tokyo returns Thursday could reverse the move sharply
HH/HL chain off Asian range, breakout above 158.00.
The US flash PMI beat lifted the pair from the 157.77 pre-PMI low to a 158.28 session high early in NY. That cleared the 158.00 round number and the 158.05 2-week high after a steady London grind above the Asian range. The current bar is easing to 158.18 with RSI(14) near 65, inside the flagged 158.05–158.40 intervention zone.
Support: 158.05, 158.00, 157.77
Resistance: 158.28, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.00 round number puts the PMI spike's 61.8% fib (~157.96) in play and marks the breakout as failing
Hold above the 158.05 2-week high keeps the breakout intact; a close above the 158.28 session high opens the 158.40 intervention cap
Loss of the 157.77 pre-PMI low unwinds the full PMI spike
MoF/BoJ intervention language or rate-check reports as Tokyo reopens Thursday could reverse this read sharply
14:01 UTC
Uptrend, breakout extending on PMI bar · RSI 65 · price 158.087
Higher lows since Asia, Asian high broken in London, 158.00 cleared.
USDJPY broke the Asian range high at 157.71 in London and kept printing higher lows into NY. A 13:30 UTC sweep to the 157.77 swing low, near 61.8% of the Asia-low leg, was reclaimed, and the flash-PMI bar then pushed through the 158.00 round number and Friday's 158.05 two-week high to a 158.12 session high. RSI(14) is near 65, not stretched, with the 158.40 intervention zone overhead.
Support: 158.00, 157.767, 157.712
Resistance: 158.122, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.00 round number would turn the PMI push into a false break
Loss of the 157.77 swing low breaks the uptrend line and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 158.12 session high opens the 158.40 intervention zone
Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC, or any MoF/BoJ intervention language, could materially shift this read
13:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, sharp pullback into NY · RSI 47 · price 157.794
London HH/HL chain to 157.99; 157.88 higher low broken.
London broke above the 157.43–157.71 Asian range and built a higher-high chain to a 157.99 session high on the broad USD bid. The 13:15 UTC bar was rejected just under 158.00 and dropped 17 pips through ema20 and the rising trendline, back to the 157.77 London swing low near the 38.2% fib, with ema50 just below at 157.75.
Support: 157.77, 157.75, 157.71
Resistance: 157.88, 157.99, 158.05
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 157.75 ema50 and the 157.74–157.77 swing low zone breaks the London higher-low structure and exposes the Asian high at 157.71
Recovery above 157.88 (ema20) reclaims the broken higher low. A close above the 157.99 session high would bring the 158.05 2-week high into play, where intervention headline risk rises
Higher-low chain since London open; latest bar rejected session high.
London broke the Asian high at 157.71 and built rising lows to a 157.99 session high, pausing just under the 158.05 two-week high as USD stays bid on hawkish-Fed pricing. The first NY bars rejected that high and dipped below EMA20, with RSI(14) cooling to about 54 ahead of the flash PMIs.
Support: 157.774, 157.712
Resistance: 157.991, 158.05
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 157.99 session high exposes the 158.05 two-week high, the start of the intervention-sensitive zone
Failure to hold the 157.77 swing low breaks the rising lows chain, putting the 157.71 Asian high in play
Retracement toward the 50% fib of the move to the session high (~157.75) would test the London breakout
HH/HL chain since the London break of the Asian range high; first NY pullback in progress.
London broke the Asian high at 157.71 and built higher lows, including a swing low at 157.77 that aligns with the 38.2% fib. The hawkish-Fed USD bid carried price to a 157.98 session high. The first hour of NY brought a pullback to 157.88, RSI(14) has cooled to ~56, and price sits just above EMA20 beneath the 158.05 two-week high.
Support: 157.881, 157.774, 157.712
Resistance: 157.983, 158.05, 158.40
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 157.98 session high puts the 158.05 2-week high in play; 158.05–158.40 is the zone where MoF intervention risk rises
Failure to hold the 157.88 NY pullback low exposes the 157.77 swing low and the rising trendline
Break below 157.71, the Asian high and 50% fib, would negate the London breakout structure
HH/HL chain since the Asian range break, stalling below the session high.
London broke the Asian high at 157.71 and has built higher lows since, most recently the 157.774 swing low, as the hawkish-Fed dollar bid kept JPY heavy. Price is compressing just under the 157.973 session high and 158.00 psych level with RSI(14) near 64 and ATR around 6 pips. The rising support line from the Asian low still holds.
Support: 157.884, 157.774, 157.712
Resistance: 157.973, 158.00, 158.05
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Barr at 14:05 UTC could materially shift this read
A clean break of 158.00 psych brings the 158.05 2wk high into play
A close below the 157.884 micro low would signal the grind is stalling
Failure to hold the 157.774 swing low breaks the HL chain and puts the 157.71 asian high back in focus
Asian range broken higher in London, higher-high/higher-low chain intact.
London broke the 157.43–157.71 Asian range to the upside and ground out higher highs and higher lows to a 157.97 session high as the hawkish-Fed dollar bid held. Price sits just under the 158.05 2-week high into the London-NY transition. RSI(14) near 64 is firm but not stretched, and the rising trendline from the Asian low is intact.
Support: 157.88, 157.77, 157.71
Resistance: 157.97, 158.05, 158.40
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 158.05 2-week high opens 158.40, where intervention risk is flagged
A break of the 157.88 micro hl and the rising trendline brings the 157.77 swing low and the 38.2% fib into play
Loss of the 157.77 swing low ends the HH/HL chain and turns the 157.71 Asian high into the retest level
12:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 67 · price 157.961
Chain of higher highs and higher lows, at session high.
Steady London-into-NY grind: USDJPY has printed higher lows since the Asian low at 157.23 and is closing at the session high, with the hawkish-Fed dollar bid keeping the pair pinned to its upper range. RSI(14) near 67 is hot but not extreme; 158.00 round number and the 158.05 two-week high are the immediate area to watch for rejection or break, ATR(14) ~6 pips.
Support: 157.77, 157.51, 157.23
Resistance: 158.00, 158.05, 158.40
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC is the main near-term driver and can break or reject 158.05 within the next few bars
A 15m close back below the 157.77 intraday low breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the 157.51 swing low invalidates the intraday uptrend read
Approach to 158.40 raises MoF intervention headline risk
Price has ground higher through London into the first hours of NY, printing a fresh session high at 157.97 on the hawkish-Fed/stronger-dollar repricing, with RSI(14) near 65 — firm but not stretched. Pullbacks have been shallow, holding the 157.77 swing low and staying above ema50 around 157.73; ATR(14) is just 6 pips, so this is a low-volatility drift rather than an impulse.
Support: 157.77, 157.73
Resistance: 157.97, 158.05
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT plus Fed's Barr shortly after can materially reprice this read within the next few bars
Acceptance above the 157.97 session high opens the 158.05 2wk high as the next reference
A close back below the 157.77 swing low and ema50 breaks the higher-low chain
11:46 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 68 · price 157.914
Higher highs and higher lows since the London open.
Steady HH/HL chain through the London session has taken USDJPY to a session high of 157.944, price holding above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 68 — hot but not extreme. The 157.80 intraday base absorbed four tests during the London-NY transition build-up; below that, 157.74 swing low and 157.51 prior low mark the last clean pivots. Hawkish Fed repricing and the post-BoJ yen backdrop remain the driver behind the drift toward the 158.05 two-week high.
Support: 157.80, 157.74, 157.51
Resistance: 157.944, 158.05, 158.40
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 157.944 session high opens the path to the 158.05 two-week high and the 158.40 major cap
Loss of the 157.80 intraday base and then 157.74 swing low would break the higher-low chain
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT and Fed's Barr at 14:05 GMT land within the next two bars and can reset this range
Intervention-headline risk rises the closer spot trades to 158.00, which would invalidate the grind-higher read fast
Higher highs and higher lows, now consolidating just under the session high.
London hours extended the grind from the Asian range, taking out the 157.70 london shelf and printing a session high at 157.916 as the Dollar held 7-week highs on hawkish Fed rhetoric. Last six bars are coiling 157.774–157.916 with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR(14) around 6 pips — pausing, not reversing.
Support: 157.774, 157.70, 157.512
Resistance: 157.916, 158.40
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC plus Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC land inside the next bar block and can reprice this range immediately
Acceptance above the 157.916 session high extends the uptrend toward the 158.40 uob cap, where intervention headlines become live
A close back under the 157.774 swing low breaks the higher-low chain; loss of the 157.700 london shelf turns the read to range
157.512 london low is the last reference before the Asian range is back in play
Higher highs into London, now coiling under session high.
London took out the Asian range top at 157.697 and extended to a session high of 157.916 before stalling, with the hawkish-Fed DXY at seven-week highs behind the grind. The last five bars are pinned in a 157.774–157.87 range floor/ceiling band, RSI(14) back to a neutral 53 and ATR near 6 pips — no fresh structure since the 09:30 UTC high.
Support: 157.774, 157.697
Resistance: 157.916, 158.00
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC can reset this intraday read within one bar
A close below the 157.774 range floor puts the 157.697 breakout base back in play
Reclaim of the 157.916 session high opens the 158.00 psych level, where intervention rhetoric becomes live
11:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening near session high · RSI 62 · price 157.847
Higher highs / higher lows since the overnight low, last 6 bars stalling under 157.92.
London hours carried USDJPY from the 157.51 session low through the overnight range to a session high of 157.92, the grind higher tracking the hawkish-Fed dollar bid into 7-week DXY highs. Price is now consolidating in a 157.77–157.92 band with RSI(14) easing to ~62 and ATR(14) at roughly 6 pips.
Support: 157.77, 157.69, 157.51
Resistance: 157.92, 158.00
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the immediate risk to this read; a stall here would test the 157.77 swing low
M15 close above 157.92 session high opens the 158.00 round number
Loss of 157.69 prior high breaks the higher-low chain and invalidates the intraday uptrend read
Higher highs / higher lows, stalling under session high.
London hours ground USDJPY higher in a clean HH/HL chain to a session high at 157.92, with the hawkish-Fed DXY at 7-week highs the driver behind the grind. The last four bars have faded off that high into a tight 157.77–157.90 consolidation, RSI(14) ~63 and price still above ema50 at 157.67; ATR(14) ~6 pips keeps expected bar range small.
Support: 157.76, 157.67, 157.51
Resistance: 157.92, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.92 session high opens the 158.00 round number
Loss of the 157.76 swing low breaks the rising support line off the 157.51 london low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC, roughly three hours out, can reset this intraday read
Intervention rhetoric becomes live as price grinds toward 158.00
10:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling near session high · RSI 66 · price 157.829
Higher highs and higher lows since the London low, now stalling.
Steady grind higher through the Asian range and into London, USDJPY topping at a 157.916 session high before easing back into the 157.82 area with RSI(14) around 66. The higher-low chain off the 157.512 London low is intact — 157.744 is the last defended swing low — with the dollar underpinned by hawkish Fed commentary flagged in the digest. ATR(14) near 6 pips keeps ranges tight ahead of the US data slot.
Support: 157.744, 157.673, 157.512
Resistance: 157.916, 158.00
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC can reprice this intraday structure quickly
A 15-minute close above the 157.916 session high opens the 158.00 round number
Loss of the 157.744 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and turns focus to the 157.673 prior swing
Rejection repeating under 157.916 would mark a session-high cap rather than continuation
Higher highs and higher lows since the 157.23 low; last 5 bars stalling under the session high.
Steady HH/HL grind through the Asia range into London, price now consolidating in a 157.77–157.92 band just under the session high with RSI(14) at 66 and ATR(14) only ~5.8 pips. The drift is USD-led — dollar sitting at seven-week highs on hawkish Fed pricing — and price is holding well above EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 157.774, 157.669
Resistance: 157.916, 158.00, 158.40
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC plus Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC can reprice this intraday read quickly
A 15m close above the 157.916 session high opens the 158.00 psych level and the 158.40 firm cap
Loss of the 157.774 swing low, then 157.669 prior swing, breaks the higher-low chain
Intervention headlines out of Tokyo remain the gap risk the closer price trades to 158.00
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 73 · price 157.875
HH/HL chain into fresh session high, no distribution yet.
London took out the asian high at 157.70 and extended to a session high of 157.92, with price holding an unbroken HH/HL chain off the 157.51 swing low as the dollar trades at seven-week highs on hawkish Fed pricing. RSI(14) near 73 is hot but consistent with the trend; the last four bars have stalled in a 5-pip band under 157.92, with the london low at 157.77 the nearest shelf.
Support: 157.77, 157.70, 157.51
Resistance: 157.92, 158.00
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC plus Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC land inside the next few bars and can reprice this intraday read
Acceptance above the 157.92 session high opens the 158.00 psych level
A M15 close back below 157.77 london low, then 157.70 asian high, breaks the HH/HL chain
Intervention headlines from Tokyo are the main two-way risk the closer price gets to 158.00
HH/HL chain since Asia low, session highs being extended.
Price broke the Asian range high (157.854) into the London open and has extended to a session high of 157.898, holding a clean chain of higher lows above EMA20 and EMA50 — consistent with the hawkish-Fed repricing that pushed DXY to a seven-week high. RSI(14) near 73 is hot but not extreme for this kind of low-volatility grind, with ATR(14) only ~5 pips per bar.
Support: 157.76, 157.68, 157.51
Resistance: 157.90, 158.00, 158.40
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.76 swing low would print the first lower low of the London leg
Acceptance above the 157.90 session high opens the 158.00 round number, then the 158.40 cited cap
A slip back under the 157.68 ema50 would put the 157.51 asia low back in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC can reprice this intraday structure quickly
Higher highs and higher lows, London extending above the asia high.
London hours broke above the asia high at 157.70 and price is now pinned at the 157.890 session high, with hawkish-Fed repricing keeping the dollar bid through the window. Pullbacks have been shallow — the 157.744 swing low held on the last dip and the sequence of higher lows tracks the rising support off yesterday's 156.82 base; RSI(14) near 74 is hot but not extreme, ATR(14) about 5.6 pips.
Support: 157.744, 157.697
Resistance: 157.89, 158.00, 158.40
What it said to watch
US S&P Global flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC (services f/c 56) — the driver behind this grind and the main near-term repricing risk
Close above the 157.890 session high opens the 158.000 psych level and the 158.400 cited cap
Loss of the 157.744 swing low and then the 157.697 asia high would break the higher-low chain and the rising support
MoF intervention rhetoric as the pair presses multi-week highs
London session has ground USD/JPY up to a fresh window high of 157.878, with an unbroken HH/HL chain since the 157.51 swing low and dips absorbed at the rising ema20 near 157.76 — consistent with the hawkish-Fed repricing keeping JPY offered post-BoJ. RSI(14) near 70 and ATR(14) about 6 pips: extended but not stretched, with the 157.90 round number the immediate cap.
Support: 157.76, 157.66, 157.51
Resistance: 157.878, 157.90
What it said to watch
M15 close below 157.66 prior high breaks the higher-low chain
Acceptance above 157.90 round number opens the path toward the upper 157.90s
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr 14:05 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of 157.51 swing low invalidates the intraday uptrend structure
09:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into London · RSI 72 · price 157.869
Higher highs and higher lows, Asian range broken to the upside.
London opened with a clean break of the 157.71 asia high, extending the grind off yesterday's 157.23 low to a session high at 157.88 with RSI(14) at ~72 — hot but consistent with trend. The leg is driven by hawkish Fed repricing keeping the dollar at seven-week highs while JPY stays offered post-BoJ; ATR(14) is only 5.4 pips, so this is a low-volatility drift rather than an impulse.
Support: 157.71, 157.51
Resistance: 157.88, 158.40
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the main lever on this read within the next few hours
Loss of 157.51 asia low would break the higher-low chain and invalidate the breakout
Rejection into the 158.40 desk cap area would keep the 157.10-157.90 range intact
MoF intervention or rate-check headlines as Tokyo returns would gap this structure lower
08:46 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 73 · price 157.808
Higher highs and higher lows since the Asia session low, no break of structure.
Steady HH/HL chain through Asia into the London open, with the 157.62 prior range top broken and the session high printed at 157.854 as DXY holds seven-week highs on hawkish Fed pricing. Price is consolidating in the top of the range just under that high, RSI(14) around 73 — hot but consistent with the grind, and ATR is only ~6 pips per bar.
Support: 157.744, 157.62
Resistance: 157.854, 158.00
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC can materially reprice this move
Acceptance above the 157.854 session high opens the path toward the 158.00 psych area
Loss of 157.744 intraday low then 157.62 prior range would break the higher-low chain
Japanese intervention rhetoric remains a two-way risk in thin conditions
08:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 72 · price 157.836
HH/HL chain above broken Asian range.
London hours extended the grind to a session high at 157.854, with the Asian range (157.333 asia low to ~157.50) broken upward and not retested; USD is at seven-week highs on hawkish Fed pricing. RSI(14) ~71.5 is hot but not extreme, ATR(14) ~6 pips, and the higher-high/higher-low chain holds above the 157.70 prior high.
Support: 157.70, 157.512, 157.333
Resistance: 157.854, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 157.70 prior high breaks the higher-low chain; loss of 157.512 swing low ends the intraday uptrend read
Acceptance above the 157.854 session high opens the 158.00 round number
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC (~5h) are the next catalyst for this move
Per the JPY digest, MoF intervention risk is live above 157.70 and would produce a violent reversal of this structure
08:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into London · RSI 72 · price 157.775
Chain of higher highs and higher lows off the 156.85 spike low; London open extension.
Steady one-way grind through the Asia session took price off the 157.43 asian low and through yesterday's 157.76 high, with the London open printing a session high at 157.854 before a shallow fade to 157.775 — RSI(14) at 72 is hot but not extreme, ATR(14) only ~6 pips. The push is rate-driven, in line with DXY at seven-week highs on hawkish Fed pricing; price is holding above the rising ema20 near 157.67.
Support: 157.67, 157.512, 157.433
Resistance: 157.854, 158.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.854 session high opens the 158.00 round number
A close back below the 157.512 swing low breaks the ascending support chain and the higher-low sequence
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the session's main event risk for this read
Japan intervention chatter is live above 157.70 and would cut the grind sharply
Higher highs and higher lows since the London low, fresh window high.
After the early-London flush to 156.85 a day ago, USDJPY has ground back up in a tight channel through NY and Asia and has now cleared the prior high at 157.67 and yesterday's 157.79 area, printing a session high at 157.854 in the London morning — consistent with the hawkish-Fed, seven-week-high USD tone in the digest. RSI(14) near 72 is hot but normal for this kind of grind; ATR(14) only ~6 pips, so the advance is incremental rather than impulsive.
Support: 157.67, 157.512, 157.333
Resistance: 157.854, 158.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.854 session high opens the path toward the 158.00 round number
Loss of 157.67 prior high would break the higher-low chain; 157.512 asia low is the next reference below
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr shortly after can reprice USD inside the next few bars
Japan intervention risk is live above 157.70 — any sudden wick lower toward the 157.333 ny low would be mechanical, not structural
Higher highs and higher lows since the Asia low, fresh session high on the close.
Early London has pushed USDJPY to a fresh session high at 157.81 on the closing bar, extending a slow grind off the 156.85 Asia low with an intact chain of higher lows (157.33, then 157.51). RSI(14) near 69 is hot but not extreme, and ATR(14) is a thin 5.7 pips — the move is drift, not impulse, driven by hawkish Fed repricing keeping the dollar bid.
Support: 157.51, 157.33
Resistance: 157.81, 158.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.81 session high opens the 158.00 round number
Loss of 157.51 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and turns the read to range
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the main intraday catalyst for this pair
Japanese intervention rhetoric remains a two-way risk in thin conditions
07:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 61 · price 157.755
Higher highs and higher lows since the overnight low; fresh session high at London open.
USDJPY ground higher through a thin, Tokyo-holiday Asia session and the first bars of London took out the overnight range with a fresh session high at 157.787, the hawkish-Fed dollar repricing still the driver. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 60 — firm but not stretched — and the rising support line off 157.333 and 157.512 remains intact.
Support: 157.512, 157.333
Resistance: 157.787, 158.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.787 session high keeps the 158.00 psych level in range
Loss of the 157.512 swing low breaks the rising support chain and neutralises the uptrend read
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the main intraday catalyst and can reset this structure
Any MoF/BoJ intervention rhetoric near 158 would produce an outsized reversal in minutes
07:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into window high · RSI 60 · price 157.717
Higher highs / higher lows since the 156.85 flush; price at top of the rising channel.
Steady 24-hour recovery grind off the 156.85 flush low, with thin Tokyo-holiday liquidity and a firmer USD on hawkish Fed repricing keeping the channel intact; price is pressing the window high at 157.77 as London comes in. RSI(14) near 60 with ATR(14) only ~5 pips — slow, low-volatility drift rather than an impulsive break.
Support: 157.51
Resistance: 157.77
What it said to watch
15m close above the 157.77 prior high extends the channel; repeated wicks there without a close flags rejection
Loss of the 157.51 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising channel support
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT plus Fed's Barr can materially reset this intraday read
Sustained trade above 157.70 keeps MoF intervention headlines a two-way risk, which would void the channel read fast
Higher lows since 156.85 spike low, pressing the session high.
Steady recovery off the 156.85 spike low, with a chain of higher lows through Asia hours and price now pinned just under the 157.712 session high; Tokyo's holiday has kept ranges thin at ~6 pips ATR. Price holds above the ema20 at 157.62 as the hawkish-Fed dollar bid from yesterday's speaker block persists.
Support: 157.62, 157.512, 157.233
Resistance: 157.712, 157.774, 158.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.712 session high puts the 157.774 prior high and the 158.00 psych level in play
Loss of 157.512 session low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes 157.233 swing low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT and any MoF intervention rhetoric could materially reset this intraday read
Higher highs / higher lows since the 157.23 swing low.
Steady grind higher through Asian hours off the 157.512 session low, with price now pressing the 157.711 session high into the London handover; RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 5 pips keeps this a low-volatility drift rather than an impulse. Yesterday's Hormuz-headline flush to 156.85 has been fully retraced, the BoJ's lack of hawkish follow-through leaving JPY soft.
Support: 157.512, 157.433
Resistance: 157.711, 157.774
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.711 session high opens the 157.774 prior high
Loss of the 157.433 swing low breaks the higher-low chain built off 157.23
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT and any MoF intervention headline are the two-way risk into NY
06:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into session high · RSI 58 · price 157.704
Higher lows since the spike low, price at top of Asian range.
The Hormuz-headline spike to 156.85 was fully unwound and USDJPY has ground back up through Asia hours, now printing the session high at 157.71 with RSI(14) at 58 — hot but not stretched. Chain of higher lows intact off 157.23, with the ema20 at 157.62 holding on each dip; prior high at 157.774 and the 157.80 range top are the next areas to watch for rejection or break.
Support: 157.62, 157.512
Resistance: 157.71, 157.774, 157.80
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the session's main risk to this read
Close back below the 157.512 session low breaks the higher-low chain
Acceptance above 157.774 prior high would extend the range top toward 157.80
Japanese intervention headlines remain a two-way gap risk with Tokyo desks thin
Higher lows since the spike low, now coiling under the session high.
The sharp Hormuz-headline flush to 156.85 has been fully unwound; Asia has ground back up in a chain of higher lows to 157.633, now pressing the session high at 157.678 on very thin Silver Week volume. RSI(14) is mid-range at ~52 and ATR(14) just 5 pips — a slow, low-range drift rather than an impulse.
Support: 157.512, 157.233
Resistance: 157.678, 157.774, 158.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.678 session high opens the 157.774 prior high and the 158.00 psych level
A close below the 157.512 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and reopens the 157.233 range low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC plus Fed's Barr are the next scheduled catalysts and could reset this range
Any MoF/BoJ verbal escalation into thin liquidity would invalidate the grind-higher read quickly
06:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into session high · RSI 56 · price 157.667
V-recovery off 156.85 spike low, chain of higher lows, price at top of a tight Asia range.
A 70-pip air pocket to 156.85 at yesterday's London open — crude/Hormuz headlines lifting JPY — has been fully retraced, with price building higher lows through NY and into thin Silver Week Asia hours. Last bars are coiled in a 157.515–157.674 band, price pressing the session high with RSI(14) mid-50s and ATR(14) just over 5 pips, so ranges are compressed.
Support: 157.515, 157.45
Resistance: 157.674, 157.775, 158.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.674 session high opens the path to the 157.775 prior high and the 158.00 psych level
Loss of the 157.515 session low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 157.45 swing pivot back in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC are the next catalysts capable of resetting this intraday range
Higher lows since the 156.852 flush, capped under 157.67.
The Hormuz-headline flush to 156.852 has been fully retraced during thin Asia hours with Tokyo shut, price now pressing the 157.673 session high inside a shallow rising channel. RSI(14) is flat near 53 and ATR(14) is just ~5 pips, so the grind is liquidity-starved rather than impulsive.
Support: 157.512, 157.233, 156.852
Resistance: 157.673, 157.774, 158.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.673 session high opens the 157.774 prior high, then the 158.00 round number
Loss of the 157.512 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 157.233 session low back in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and MoF intervention risk as Tokyo reopens could reset this intraday read
Range between 157.43 and 157.67 after full retrace of the London flush.
The London-morning flush to 156.85 on the Hormuz reopening headlines has been fully retraced, and price has spent the Asia session grinding in a tight 157.43–157.67 range on holiday-thin volumes. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and ATR(14) has compressed to ~5 pips, with the asia high at 157.673 capping the last four hours and price hugging EMA20.
Support: 157.433, 157.342
Resistance: 157.673, 157.774
What it said to watch
A 15m close above 157.673 asia high puts the 157.774 prior day high back in play
Loss of the 157.433 range base would break the Asia-session rising support and reopen 157.342 swing low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the session's main event risk and can invalidate this compression read
Higher lows off the spike low, now a tight 157.51-157.67 band.
The Hormuz-reopening headline drove a fast sweep to 156.852 in yesterday's window, fully retraced through NY and the Asia session with Tokyo still shut for Silver Week. Price is now pinned in a 157.51-157.67 band just under the session high, RSI(14) flat near 51 and ATR(14) only ~6 pips — no expansion in play.
Support: 157.512, 157.36
Resistance: 157.674, 157.774, 158.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.674 session high opens the path to the 157.774 prior high and the 158.00 psych area
Loss of the 157.512 session low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes 157.36 swing low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the only high-impact print and could materially shift this intraday read
MoF/BoJ intervention headlines remain a headline risk in thin holiday liquidity
Asia range inside yesterday's London-NY range; last push to 157.673 rejected.
Yesterday's London session dumped the pair from 157.774 to 156.82 on the Hormuz reopening headline; price has since ground back up and spent the Asia session boxed between 157.423 and the 157.673 asia high. The last bars rejected 157.673 and slipped back under the ema20 near 157.59, RSI(14) at 46 with ATR only ~6 pips in holiday-thinned liquidity.
Support: 157.423, 157.233
Resistance: 157.59, 157.673, 157.774
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.673 asia high reopens the 157.774 prior day hi
Loss of the 157.423 asia low puts the 157.233 ny low back in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the session's main event risk for this read
Failure to reclaim the ema20 keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Higher lows off 156.82, coiling under session high.
Yesterday's London-hours spike lower to 156.82 on the Iran/Hormuz reopening headline was fully retraced through NY, leaving a chain of higher lows back into 157.67. Asia is grinding in a 12-pip box under that session high with Tokyo out for Silver Week; RSI(14) at 54 has flattened while price held its highs, and ATR(14) is a thin 7.5 pips.
Support: 157.56, 157.43
Resistance: 157.67, 157.77, 158.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.67 session high puts the 157.77 prior high and the 158.00 psych level back in play
Loss of the 157.56 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and re-opens 157.43 session low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the only high-impact print and can override this intraday range read
Intervention-headline risk rises as Tokyo returns Thursday — a squeeze would invalidate the recovery structure quickly
04:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into session high · RSI 64 · price 157.653
Higher highs and higher lows since the 157.23 swing low; price at top of Asian range.
The Hormuz-headline flush to 156.85 has been fully retraced and USD/JPY is pressing the session high at 157.67 in thin Silver Week Asian liquidity, holding above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 64. Micro-structure is a clean higher-high/higher-low chain off the 157.23 swing low, with the grind base at 157.58 so far unbroken.
Support: 157.58, 157.43, 157.23
Resistance: 157.67, 157.77, 158.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.77 prior high would extend the uptrend toward the 158.00 psych level
A close back under the 157.58 grind base, then 157.43 asian low, breaks the rising support chain
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the only high-impact print and could reprice this intraday read
Intervention-style verbal headlines as Tokyo returns Thursday would invalidate the drift higher
Higher lows since the London flush, coiling under the asia high.
The Hormuz-reopening headline flushed the pair from 157.77 to 156.85 in early London, but the move was fully retraced and Asia has ground back up in a chain of higher lows to the 157.662 asia high. Price is now pinned in a tight 157.573–157.662 range with RSI(14) near 64 and ATR just over 6 pips — thin Silver Week liquidity, no fresh impulse.
Support: 157.573, 157.443, 157.333
Resistance: 157.662, 157.774
What it said to watch
Repeated failure at the 157.662 asia high would flag stalling in the Asia grind
A close below the 157.573 range floor puts the 157.443 prior swing back in play
Loss of 157.333 asia low breaks the higher-low chain built off the 156.85 flush
Acceptance above 157.662 opens the 157.774 prior day high
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and intervention headlines as Tokyo reopens can reset this range quickly
Higher lows since the 156.85 spike low, now coiling under the session high.
The Hormuz-reopening headline drove a 90-pip flush to 156.85 during the London-NY window, but the entire leg has been retraced in a chain of higher lows back to 157.66. Asia is holding a tight 157.58–157.66 coil above EMA20 on thin Silver Week liquidity, RSI(14) mid-band at 58 with ATR near 6.5 pips.
Support: 157.43, 157.50, 157.23
Resistance: 157.66, 157.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.66 session high opens the path to the 157.77 prior day high
Loss of the 157.43 asia low breaks the rising support chain and puts 157.23 swing low back in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT and intervention headlines as Tokyo reopens could reset this read
03:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into Asia · RSI 64 · price 157.625
Higher highs / higher lows since the 156.852 spike low; tight late-session consolidation.
The headline-driven flush to 156.852 during London hours has been almost fully retraced, with early Asia building a higher-low chain off the 157.433 session low and stalling under the 157.662 session high. Ranges have collapsed to 3-5 pips per bar in thin Silver Week liquidity, ATR(14) ~7 pips, RSI(14) at 64 with price holding above EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 157.433, 157.233, 157.00
Resistance: 157.662, 157.774
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.662 session high opens the 157.774 prior high
Loss of the 157.433 session low breaks the higher-low chain and re-exposes the 157.233 swing low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT are the session's main catalyst and could reset this range
Intervention or rate-check headlines remain a two-way risk into the 157.00 psych area
03:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in thin Asia liquidity · RSI 66 · price 157.631
Higher highs and higher lows since the 156.852 flush low; full retrace of that drop.
The Hormuz-reopening headline flush to 156.852 has been fully retraced — price broke out of the 157.43–157.50 Asian coil and is pressing the 157.662 session high with RSI(14) near 66. Structure is a clean higher-low chain off 157.23, ATR(14) around 8 pips in thin Silver Week conditions.
Support: 157.43, 157.23
Resistance: 157.662, 157.774
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.662 session high exposes the 157.774 prior high
Loss of 157.43 asian low breaks the higher-low chain and reopens 157.23 swing low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT are the session's main catalyst for this read
MoF/BoJ intervention headlines remain a two-way spike risk into the 157.77+ area
03:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding recovery off the spike low · RSI 65 · price 157.629
Higher lows since 156.82, pressing 24h range top.
The Hormuz-reopening headline knocked the pair from 157.77 to 156.82 during the prior NY session, but the entire leg has been retraced through thin Asia hours with Tokyo out for Silver Week. Price is at 157.629 having stacked higher lows off 157.23 and 157.43, RSI(14) around 65 and ATR(14) near 7 pips; session high 157.66 is the immediate cap ahead of the pre-drop high at 157.77.
Support: 157.43, 157.23, 157.00
Resistance: 157.66, 157.77
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.66 session high opens the path back to the 157.77 pre-drop high
A close back below 157.43 breaks the swing-low chain and puts 157.23 back in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT are the session's main catalyst and could reprice the read
Intervention or rate-check headlines in thin liquidity remain a two-way risk around the 157.00 psych level
02:46 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into Tokyo · RSI 66 · price 157.612
Higher highs and higher lows since the London flush; NY high cleared.
Tokyo has ground above the NY session high, printing a session high at 157.662, fully reversing the London flush to the 156.852 prior day low on the Hormuz/oil headlines. Higher-low chain intact from the 157.233 swing low, with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR at ~7 pips keeping bar ranges tight.
Support: 157.433, 157.233, 156.852
Resistance: 157.662, 157.774
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 157.662 session high puts the 157.774 prior day hi in play
Close back under 157.433 tokyo low breaks the higher-low chain built off 157.233 swing low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT are the session's main catalyst and can reset this range
MoF/BoJ intervention headlines as Tokyo returns from Silver Week could sharply change the read
02:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, grinding higher in thin Asia liquidity · RSI 66 · price 157.632
Higher highs / higher lows since the NY swing low, price pinned to the top of the Asian range.
USDJPY has ground up through the Tokyo morning from the 157.233 swing low, tagging a session high at 157.662 before easing to 157.632 — yen still soft after last Friday's dovish-toned BoJ hike, with Silver Week thinning flow. RSI(14) near 66 and ATR(14) around 6.6 pips confirms a slow, low-volatility drift rather than an impulsive leg; the 157.473 asia pivot has been the retest floor on each pullback.
Support: 157.473, 157.333, 157.233
Resistance: 157.662, 157.774
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.662 session high opens the path back toward the 157.774 london high
Loss of the 157.473 asia pivot would break the higher-low chain and put the 157.333 asia low back in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT plus any MoF/BoJ intervention headline could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the spike low; full recovery of the Hormuz-headline drop.
The mid-window flush to 156.85 on Hormuz-reopening headlines has been fully unwound, and price has built a clean chain of higher lows through NY into the Tokyo-holiday session, printing 157.66 before easing to 157.599. Thin liquidity (last bars sub-100 volume) is doing much of the work; RSI(14) near 69 is hot but not extreme, ATR(14) around 7 pips.
Support: 157.43, 157.23, 156.85
Resistance: 157.66, 157.77
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.66 session high opens the path to the 157.77 prior high
Loss of the 157.43 range base breaks the higher-low chain and re-opens 157.23 swing low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT are the session's main catalyst and could reset this range
MoF rate-check/intervention headlines remain the tail risk into the 157.60s
Higher lows since the 156.85 flush; retracing the drop from 157.77.
USDJPY flushed 90 pips to 156.85 during the NY session on the Hormuz reopening headlines, then ground back up in a chain of higher lows through thin Asia hours; last print 157.631 with RSI(14) near 66 and price above both EMA20 and EMA50. The 157.43 asia base held on the way up and the session high at 157.66 is the immediate cap, with the 157.77 prior high the unfilled part of the drop.
Support: 157.43, 157.23, 156.85
Resistance: 157.66, 157.77, 158.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.66 session high opens the path back to the 157.77 prior high and the 158.00 round number
Loss of the 157.43 asia base breaks the higher-low chain and re-exposes 157.23
Thin Silver Week liquidity is exaggerating both legs; US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT are the next catalyst for this read
MoF intervention headlines remain an event risk that would invalidate the grind higher
The Hormuz-headline flush to 156.82 during NY hours has been fully retraced — price has chained higher lows (156.82, 157.23, 157.33) and has now broken the thin Asia range top at 157.50 into the early Asia session, trading 157.634. RSI(14) at 68 with ATR ~8 pips; the 157.77 prior high from before the drop is the last intraday supply shelf.
Support: 157.50, 157.33, 157.23
Resistance: 157.66, 157.77
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 157.50 on a close puts the 157.33 asia low back in play
Close above the 157.77 prior high would complete the retrace of the NY flush
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC plus Fed's Barr could reset this intraday read
Thin Silver Week liquidity is exaggerating both legs; MoF headline risk remains a two-way factor
01:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in thin Asia liquidity · RSI 66 · price 157.583
Higher lows off 157.23, pressing session high.
Thin Asia-session tape (Tokyo out for Silver Week) has produced a steady chain of higher lows off the 157.23 swing low, with the 157.45 shelf broken and retested successfully into the last four bars; last close 157.583, just under the 157.604 session high. The underlying driver is unchanged — USD at two-month highs on hawkish Fedspeak against a JPY still digesting the dovish 1.25% BoJ hike — while the earlier Hormuz-driven flush to 156.82 has been fully reclaimed. RSI(14) at 66 is hot but not extreme; ATR(14) is compressed at ~7.6 pips.
Support: 157.45, 157.33, 157.23
Resistance: 157.604, 157.774
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.604 session high opens the path back to the 157.774 prior high
Loss of the 157.45 shelf and the 157.33 200-dma area would break the higher-low chain
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC plus Fed's Barr could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 157.23, retracing the Hormuz spike down.
Price collapsed from 157.774 to 156.852 during NY hours on the Hormuz reopening headline, then retraced almost the entire move — a false break lower that has now been unwound. Thin Asia trade with Tokyo out for Silver Week has ground the pair back into the 157.60 session high, with higher lows at 157.33 and the 157.43 asia low forming the rising support chain; RSI(14) near 69.
Support: 157.43, 157.33
Resistance: 157.60, 157.774
What it said to watch
A close above the 157.60 session high opens the path back to the 157.774 24h high
Loss of the 157.43 asia low breaks the rising support chain and re-opens 157.33 swing low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC (services f/c 56) are the next catalyst; thin holiday liquidity can exaggerate both legs
Tight Asian range above the 157.23 swing low, higher lows since NY close.
The Hormuz-reopening headline drove the 157.77-to-156.82 flush during London hours, and price has since clawed back roughly 70% of that leg, grinding along a rising sequence of higher lows off 157.23. Asia is thin with Tokyo away, holding a 157.43-157.56 range floor and session high; RSI(14) near 63 with ATR(14) about 7 pips.
Support: 157.43, 157.33, 157.23
Resistance: 157.56, 157.60, 157.77
What it said to watch
A 15m close above the 157.56 session high would extend the recovery toward the 157.60 ny high
Loss of the 157.43 range floor and then the 157.33 asia low would re-open the 157.23 swing low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the next scheduled catalyst and could void this low-volatility range read
Thin Silver Week liquidity exaggerates both directions until Tokyo returns
Asia hours are thin with Tokyo out for Silver Week — volumes under 400 a bar — and price has drifted up in a higher-low chain from 157.23 through 157.33 to sit at 157.507, just under the 157.56 session high tagged on the last impulse candle. The 92-pip flush to 156.82 on the Hormuz-reopening headline earlier in the window has now been retraced roughly three-quarters, with RSI(14) at 60 and ATR(14) near 7 pips.
Support: 157.44, 157.33, 157.23
Resistance: 157.56, 157.60, 157.77
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close above 157.56 puts the 157.60 prior high and the 157.77 range high back in play
Loss of the 157.44 ema20 and then 157.33 session low breaks the higher-low chain
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the next scheduled catalyst and could reset this range read
Liquidity remains thin until Tokyo returns, so single-bar spikes like the 157.56 print can distort levels
00:16 UTC
Recovered off the flush, now flat · RSI 62 · price 157.495
Tight consolidation under session high after full retracement of the 156.82 spike low.
The sharp flush to 157.02 and the 156.82 prior low on Hormuz reopening headlines was fully unwound, and price has since coiled into a 157.33–157.51 band through thin pre-Tokyo Asia hours. RSI(14) ~62 with price above EMA20 and EMA50; ATR(14) ~7 pips, session high 157.505 still capping.
Support: 157.33, 157.233, 157.02
Resistance: 157.505, 157.60, 157.774
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.60 prior high would re-open the 157.774 day high
Loss of the 157.33 session low puts the 157.233 swing low back in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the next catalyst capable of breaking this range
Silver Week liquidity keeps spike risk elevated in both directions until Tokyo returns
Tight 157.33-157.50 balance after V-shaped recovery from 156.85.
The window's defining move was the vertical flush from 157.77 to the 156.85 spike low on the Hormuz-reopening headline, fully retraced through the NY session back to 157.60 prior high. Price is now grinding in a 157.33-157.50 band in early Asia hours with Tokyo shut for Silver Week — volumes collapsed to double digits, ATR(14) down to ~6 pips, RSI(14) mid-range at 58.
Support: 157.33, 157.23, 156.85
Resistance: 157.50, 157.60, 157.77
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.50 session high reopens the 157.60 prior high and the 157.77 window high
Loss of the 157.33 session low puts the 157.23 swing low back in play and breaks the rising support off the NY lows
US flash S&P Global PMIs 13:45 UTC plus Fed's Barr are the next catalysts; thin Asia liquidity means headline spikes can exceed the 6-pip ATR read