USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 24 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Uptrend stalled, flat into Asia open · RSI 44 · price 158.826
Range 158.73–158.94 below a 159.03 double top.
The pair reversed from the 157.80 Asian low, set as JGB yields spiked, to 159.03 on broad USD strength and hawkish Fed talk. NY then printed a double top at 159.03 just above the 159.00 psych mark, and price has held a tight 158.73–158.94 range since, with the range top capping the late-NY bounce. Price is pinned to flat EMAs and RSI(14) is near 44 into the Asia open. The late low at 158.73 lines up with the 23.6% fib of the Asia-NY leg.
Support: 158.73, 158.62
Resistance: 158.94, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.03 double top reopens 159.00+ price discovery, where MoF intervention risk rises sharply
Failure to hold the 158.73 late low exposes the 158.62 NY low; a break of the NY low confirms the double top
Range top at 158.94 is the first cap inside the current range
Asia session: yen headlines or a rate check can gap price through the range at any time
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could shift the read during London
23:16 UTC
Uptrend stalled, drifting lower off the highs · RSI 38 · price 158.76
Double top at 159.03, lower highs since late NY, holding above 158.60.
Fed-hike talk and higher US yields drove the London-NY rally from the Asian low near 157.80 into a double top at 159.03, rejected twice. Since NY close, price has drifted in a thin range with a lower high at 158.94 and now sits on the 158.73 session low near the 23.6% fib, RSI(14) at 38.
Support: 158.73, 158.60
Resistance: 158.94, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.73 session low opens the 158.60 swing low and 38.2% fib near 158.56
Reclaim of the 158.94 lower high reopens the 159.03 double top; a break there resumes the HH chain
Tokyo open liquidity may extend the current range
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
Double top at 159.03, compressing 158.75–158.94 after NY.
USD/JPY reversed the Asia dip to 157.80 as Fed-hike talk and higher US yields took over, and it tagged 159.03 twice during NY hours. Both tests were rejected, leaving a double top. Since the NY afternoon it has compressed between the 158.75 late low and the 158.94 range top. The last close sits on the range floor, just above the 23.6% fib at 158.74, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR about 6–7 pips in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 158.75, 158.62, 158.56
Resistance: 158.94, 159.03
What it said to watch
Break of the 158.75 late low exposes the 158.62 swing low, the double top neckline
Loss of the 158.62 swing low opens the 38.2% fib at 158.56
M15 close above the 158.94 range top, then 159.03, negates the double top read
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durables at 12:30 UTC could shift this read; intervention rhetoric risk rises toward 160
HH/HL chain off the 157.80 Asia low, now a flat range under a double top.
The Asia yen bid to 157.80 on the JGB spike and Katayama remarks fully reversed as Fed-hike talk and higher US yields drove a HH/HL climb. That climb stalled at a 159.03 double top during NY hours. After the NY close, price is drifting in thin trade on the 158.76 range low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 40 and the range top at 158.94 capping.
Support: 158.76, 158.61, 158.56
Resistance: 158.94, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.76 range low exposes the 158.61 ny low and the fib 38.2 at 158.56
Break of the 158.61 ny low ends the higher-low sequence
Close above 159.03 double top reopens the push toward 160 and intervention rhetoric
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
Any MoF/Katayama escalation on levels risks a sharp JPY spike
HH/HL rally capped by a double top at 159.03; post-NY consolidation with lower highs.
USDJPY climbed from the 157.80 Asian low, set as the JGB yield spike briefly lifted JPY, to the 159.03 day high. Fed hike talk and US claims/home sales beats drove the rally, but two rejections at 159.03 during NY hours left a double top, and price has since drifted in a 158.76–158.94 consolidation with lower highs into the Asia session. RSI(14) near 45 and ATR around 7 pips reflect thin, post-NY conditions.
Support: 158.76, 158.62
Resistance: 158.945, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.76 range floor exposes the 158.62 swing low, the double top neckline
Break under 158.62 confirms the double top and puts the 38.2% fib of the day rally near 158.56 in play
Close above the lower highs at 158.945 and then the 159.03 day high invalidates the double top read
MoF/Katayama intervention headlines during Asia could trigger a sharp JPY spike
158.62–159.03 range after Asia-to-NY rally; lower highs since.
USD/JPY rallied from the 157.80 Asia low, where the yen briefly firmed on the JGB yield jump and Katayama's intervention remarks, to 159.03 on Fed-hike talk and US data beats. Two rejections at the 159.03 double high have since capped price inside a 158.62–159.03 range. The rollover is quiet near 158.83, with a late high at 158.94 above and a late low at 158.77 below, and RSI(14) flat at 48.
Support: 158.77, 158.62, 158.56
Resistance: 158.94, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.03 double high breaks the range and brings the 160 intervention zone into view
Loss of the 158.77 late low exposes the 158.62 NY low; a break there opens the fib 38.2 at 158.56
Late high at 158.94 has capped the last two pushes; clearing it relieves the lower-high sequence
MoF/Katayama headlines during the Asia session could produce an outsized JPY spike versus the 7-pip ATR
Range 158.76–158.94 below double rejection at 159.03 session high.
The Fed-hike-driven leg off the Asia low at 157.80 was rejected twice at the 159.03 session high during NY, while the 158.62 NY low held on the sharp spike lower. Late NY is ranging between the 158.76 range low and 158.94 range top, with RSI(14) flat near 46 and price just under both EMAs.
Support: 158.76, 158.62
Resistance: 158.94, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.62 ny low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 158.56 38.2% retrace of the asia low to session high move
Close above the 159.03 session high reopens the path toward 160, where MoF intervention rhetoric becomes the dominant risk
Holding the 158.76 range low vs losing it defines the Asia session starting point
Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC and US durables 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
Asian range cleared in London; double top at 159.03, range 158.76–158.94.
The Asia dip to 157.80 on the JGB yield jump reversed through London and NY as Fed-hike talk lifted USD. Price cleared the Asian range and was capped twice at the 159.03 double top. Since the second rejection it has ranged between the 158.76 swing low and the 158.94 range top into the thin rollover, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 158.76, 158.61
Resistance: 158.94, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.76 swing low exposes the 158.61 twin lows, the double top neckline; the 38.2% fib of the Asia-NY rally sits just under at 158.56
Close above the 158.94 range top reopens the 159.03 double top
MoF intervention rhetoric into 159–160 is a headline tail risk; Williams (09:15 UTC) and Durables (12:30 UTC) are the next USD drivers
HH/HL chain from Asian low, twin tops at 159.03, late-NY compression.
USDJPY climbed from the 157.80 Asian low to a 159.03 session high through London and NY. Fed-hike talk and beats on US claims and new home sales drove the move. Price was rejected twice at 159.03, forming a double top with the 158.62 NY low between them, and late-NY trade is compressing 158.76–158.94 above a higher low, RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 158.76, 158.62
Resistance: 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.03 double top clears the session high and resumes the uptrend
Break of the 158.76 higher low exposes the 158.62 NY low; a close below that confirms the double top
Any MoF/Katayama intervention rhetoric as price nears 160 is the headline tail risk into the Asia session
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling, sideways late NY · RSI 47 · price 158.848
Range 158.62–159.03 below twin highs, well above Asian range.
USDJPY recovered the Asia-session dip to 157.80, which came on the JGB yield spike and Katayama's intervention comments. It then climbed through London on Fed-hike talk and firm US claims, clearing the Asian high at 158.48. NY hours saw two rejections at 159.03, a possible double top above the 158.62 NY low, and late-NY trade is compressing between the 158.76 swing low and the 158.945 minor high, with RSI(14) flat near 47.
Support: 158.76, 158.62, 158.48
Resistance: 158.945, 159.03
What it said to watch
A close below the 158.62 NY low confirms the double top and exposes the 158.48 Asian high.
Loss of the 158.76 swing low, near the 23.6% fib of the Asia-to-NY leg, puts the range floor in play.
An M15 close above the 158.945 minor high retests the double top at 159.03. Acceptance above it opens the 159–160 area, where MoF intervention rhetoric is the tail risk.
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read.
HH/HL chain from Asia low, now compressing under a double top.
The Asia dip to 157.80 on the JGB yield jump reversed through London and NY on Fed-hike talk, building higher highs and higher lows up to 159.03. That double top has capped price twice during NY hours. Price is now drifting in a tight range after the NY close, holding the 158.76 higher low, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 8-9 pips.
Support: 158.76, 158.62, 158.48
Resistance: 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.03 double top resumes the HH chain toward the 160 psych level, where MoF intervention headline risk rises
Break of the 158.76 higher low and then the 158.62 swing low would confirm the double top and end the intraday HH/HL sequence
Loss of 158.62 exposes the 158.48 london high, near the 38.2% retracement of the 157.80–159.03 leg
Thin post-NY liquidity into Asia leaves price exposed to Katayama/MoF headlines. Friday's Williams remarks and Durables are the next scheduled USD risk
HH/HL chain from the Asia low, now a 158.61–159.03 range.
The JGB-driven yen bid in Asia bottomed at the 157.80 Asia low. Fed-hike talk and beats in US claims and home sales then drove a HH/HL climb through London and NY, which stalled at the 159.03 day high, rejected twice (15:30 and 18:00 UTC). Late in the NY session price is rotating inside 158.61–159.03 and holding the 158.76 swing low, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 10 pips.
Support: 158.76, 158.61, 158.56
Resistance: 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.03 day high breaks the twin rejection and resumes the HH chain
Loss of the 158.76 swing low exposes the 158.61 NY low; a break there completes a double top and opens the 38.2% fib near 158.56
Fri: Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC and durable goods 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; MoF rhetoric is a headline risk with price this close to 160
HH/HL from London low 158.07, now ranging under a 159.03 double top.
Asia sold to 157.80 on the JGB-yield and Katayama headlines. Fed-hike talk then drove the London leg from 158.07 up to a double top at 159.03, where NY was rejected twice; the 16:15 UTC spike low at 158.62 was bought back. Late NY is compressing between the 158.76 swing low and the 158.94 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 158.76, 158.62
Resistance: 158.94, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.03 double top invalidates the rejection read
Break below the 158.62 spike low (near the 38.2% of the London leg) confirms the double top
Hold of the 158.76 swing low keeps the late-NY range intact; a close above the 158.94 lower high reopens 159.03
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durables at 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
MoF/Katayama rhetoric as price approaches 159-160 carries headline spike risk
HH/HL chain from the Asia low; late-NY compression under twin day-high rejections.
The Asia dip to 157.80 on the JGB-yield and Katayama yen bid reversed into a HH/HL chain through London and NY, as firm US claims and Fed-hike talk lifted USD. Two rejections at the 159.03 day high form a possible double top. Late NY is compressing between the 158.76 swing low and the 158.94 lower high, with rising lows intact, RSI(14) near 52 and ATR around 11 pips.
Support: 158.76, 158.62
Resistance: 158.94, 159.03
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 159.03 day high negates the double top read
A break of the 158.76 swing low and the rising lows exposes the 158.62 spike low, the double top neckline
Loss of 158.62 opens the 38.2% fib of the Asia low rally near 158.56
MoF/Katayama rhetoric into 159-160 is the headline tail risk; Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC Fri is the next scheduled driver
USD/JPY reversed the Asian low at 157.80, set on the JGB-yield spike and Katayama remarks, and climbed through London on Fed-hike repricing and US data beats. The pair was rejected twice at 159.03 during NY hours, forming a double top. Late NY, price holds a higher-low chain at 158.76 above the 158.61 swing low, and RSI(14) is neutral near 53.
Support: 158.76, 158.61
Resistance: 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.03 double top breaks the NY cap and extends the Asian-low rally
Break of the 158.76 higher low flattens the structure; loss of the 158.61 swing low confirms the double top
MoF/Katayama intervention headlines as price presses the 159–160 zone could trigger a sharp JPY spike
Fed-speak (Williams 09:15 UTC Fri) and US Durables (12:30 UTC Fri) are the next scheduled US-side risk
19:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 46 · price 158.832
Higher lows from the Asian low, two tops capping at 159.03.
USD/JPY climbed about 120 pips from the 157.80 Asian low and broke above the Asian range in London, driven by hawkish Fed repricing, beats in US claims and PMI data, and higher yields. NY has twice been rejected at 159.03, forming a double top; the 158.61 neckline and the 158.76 swing low are intact, and price sits just under EMA20 late in the NY session.
Support: 158.76, 158.61, 158.48
Resistance: 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.61 neckline confirms the double top and exposes the 158.48 prior high near the day's-rise fib 38.2%
Holding the 158.76 swing low keeps the higher-low sequence from 158.61 intact
Close above the 159.03 double top invalidates the reversal read; MoF rhetoric risk builds on any approach toward 160
Williams Fedspeak (Fri 09:15 UTC) could shift the read at the next Asia-London transition
HH/HL chain from Asia low, twin highs capping late NY.
The Asia dip to 157.80 on the JGB-yield and Katayama yen bid fully reversed as London and NY built higher lows on hawkish Fed repricing and strong US data. Late NY printed twin highs at 159.03, with rejection just above the 159.00 handle. Price is now holding 158.86, above the 158.76 late low and the 158.62 NY low, with RSI(14) back to 48.
Support: 158.76, 158.62, 158.56
Resistance: 159.03
What it said to watch
Loss of the 158.76 late low exposes the 158.62 NY low; a close below 158.62 turns the twin highs into a double top
M15 close above the 159.03 twin highs resumes the HH chain toward 160, where MoF intervention rhetoric risk rises
Below 158.62, the fib 38.2 at 158.56 and rising support from the London low are the next structural test
Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) and US durables (Fri 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:46 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 45 · price 158.798
HH/HL chain from Asia low, capped by double top at 159.03.
The pair reversed the Asia-session yen bid from 157.80, driven by the JGB yield jump. Beats in US jobless claims and new home sales plus Fed-hike repricing then carried it through the prior high at 158.48 and the London low at 158.07 rising trendline to a double top at 159.03, with the 18:00 UTC retest rejected. Late NY, price is slipping back under the ema20 near 158.83, with RSI(14) at 45 and buyers having defended the 158.62 swing low twice since 13:00 UTC.
Support: 158.62, 158.48, 158.07
Resistance: 158.83, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.03 double top invalidates the rejection read and exposes the 159.00-handle extension
Failure to hold the 158.62 swing low, and the rising trendline there, breaks the HL chain and opens the 158.48 prior high / 50% fib area
Any MoF or Katayama intervention rhetoric could trigger a sharp, headline-driven JPY spike regardless of structure
Fedspeak from Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) and US Durables (Fri 12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts for yields
18:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 159.03 · RSI 48 · price 158.838
HH/HL chain from Asia low; double top forming at 159.03 in late NY.
The Asia dip to 157.80 on the JGB-yield jump and Katayama comments fully reversed as Fed-hike repricing and US data beats lifted the pair through London and NY. Late in NY, a second push at 159.03 was rejected, leaving a possible double top above the rising trendline from the 158.07 swing low. RSI(14) has cooled to 48 and price is sitting on EMA20.
Support: 158.62, 158.48, 158.07
Resistance: 159.03, 160.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 158.62 NY low confirms the double top and breaks the rising trendline
A close above 159.03 negates the double top and opens the 160.00 psych level, where MoF intervention risk sits
A deeper pullback toward the 158.48 prior high would test the 38.2% fib of the Asia-to-NY rally
Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) and Durable Goods (Fri 12:30 UTC) could shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asian low; late-NY recovery after sharp dip.
Higher highs and higher lows from the 157.80 Asian low carried through London and NY on the US claims beat. The move topped at the 159.03 session high. A sharp 41-pip flush at 16:30 UTC then held the 158.62 ny swing low, between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib, and late-NY price has recovered to 158.92, just under the 159.00 round number, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 158.62, 158.48
Resistance: 159.00, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.03 session high extends the HH chain toward the 160 psych line, where MoF intervention risk rises
Failure to hold the 158.62 ny swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 158.48 asian high
Tokyo open MoF/Katayama rhetoric near 159 can trigger an abrupt yen spike that overrides the structure
Higher highs and lows since London; 158.61 swing low held on the 16:15 UTC dip.
USD/JPY broke above the Asian range (157.80 to asian high 158.37) into London and extended through NY on beats in US claims and new home sales. The move printed a session high at 159.03, then a sharp rejection to 158.62. That dip held the 13:00 UTC swing low at 158.61 and the 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg; a 158.68 higher low followed, and price sits at 158.92 late in NY, just under the 159.00 round number.
Support: 158.683, 158.605, 158.366
Resistance: 159.00, 159.032
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.03 session high extends the higher-high chain; a second rejection there leaves a double top in play
Failure to hold the 158.68 higher low returns focus to the 158.61 swing low
Break below the 158.61 swing low ends the London-NY higher-low sequence and exposes the 158.37 asian high
MoF/Katayama intervention rhetoric near 159–160 can trigger sharp yen spikes, amplified in thin Asia session liquidity
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) and US Durables (Fri 12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled USD drivers
17:46 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows intact after a pullback from 159.00 · RSI 57 · price 158.863
HH/HL chain from the Asian low; false break above 159.00 retraced to twin lows, now retesting the swing high.
After the Asian dip to 157.80 on the JGB yield spike and Katayama's comments, London broke above the asian high at 158.48 and NY extended to a session high at 159.03 as US yields stayed firm. The false break of 159.00 was absorbed at twin lows near 158.61, and price is back at the 158.90 swing high late in NY with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 158.61, 158.48
Resistance: 158.90, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.03 session high resumes the HH sequence
Failure to hold the 158.61 twin lows breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 158.48 asian high
MoF intervention rhetoric near 159–160 could trigger a sharp yen spike
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC Fri) and US durables (12:30 UTC Fri) could shift the read
17:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalled after rejection · RSI 54 · price 158.796
HH/HL chain from Asia low; 158.62–158.90 range after 159.03 rejection.
An Asia yen bid to 157.80 faded, and the pair climbed through London on broad USD strength. It extended to a 159.03 session high in NY after firm claims and home sales. A sharp 16:15 UTC rejection found buyers at the 158.62 NY low, above the 38.2% fib, and price now sits near 158.80 just under EMA20 as the post-London range compresses.
Support: 158.62, 158.56
Resistance: 158.89, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.62 NY low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% fib at 158.56
Close above the 158.89 prior high reopens the 159.03 session high and the 159.00 round number
Any MoF or intervention headlines as price nears 159–160 could trigger an outsized yen move
Thin post-London liquidity; next scheduled USD risk is Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC Fri
Higher-low chain from 157.80 intact, latest pullback held above 158.61.
A higher-low chain off the 157.80 Asia low ran through London and NY on firm US claims and home sales, printing a 159.03 session high before a rejection after London close. The drop found demand at 158.62, just above the 158.61 swing low and inside the 38.2–50% zone of the London rally fib. Price now sits just under EMA20, and RSI(14) is neutral near 51.
Support: 158.61, 158.48
Resistance: 158.89, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.89 prior high puts the 159.03 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 158.61 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 158.48 asian high
MoF or intervention headlines as price nears 159–160 could snap the structure abruptly
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC Fri) and US durables (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalled after rejection at 159.03 · RSI 51 · price 158.799
HH/HL chain from the Asia low intact; 158.60 higher low tested twice.
A brief Asia-session yen bid set the 157.80 low. Price then climbed through London and NY on firm US claims and home sales data, but was rejected at the 159.03 session high. A sharp drop after London close found the 158.62 swing low, in line with the earlier 158.60 low and above the fib 38.2 at 158.56, and price has recovered to 158.80 with RSI(14) near 51.
Support: 158.62, 158.56, 158.48
Resistance: 158.90, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.60 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the fib 38.2 at 158.56, then the 158.48 prior high
Reclaim of the 158.90 pivot reopens the 159.03 session high
Unscheduled MoF intervention rhetoric as price nears 159-160 could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Uptrend, first sharp pullback · RSI 48 · price 158.72
Higher-low chain from 158.07 intact, intraday trendline broken.
London broke above the Asian range (157.80–158.17) and built a higher-low chain, reaching a 159.03 session high after the US new home sales beat. A 27-pip drop at 16:15 UTC, after London close, broke the intraday trendline and printed a rejection at the 159.00 psych, but price is holding just above the 158.60 swing low with RSI(14) back to ~48.
Support: 158.60, 158.49
Resistance: 158.89, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.60 swing low breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 158.49 London break level and the 50% fib near 158.55
Recovery above the 158.89 prior high reopens the 159.03 session high
MoF intervention risk rises on any approach to 159–160. Fed's Williams on Fri at 09:15 UTC could shift October-hike pricing
16:31 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 51 · price 158.807
HH/HL chain from Asian low 157.80, now retracing below EMA20.
A brief Asia-session yen bid to 157.80, as JGB yields spiked, faded into a London-NY rally of higher lows to a 159.03 session high after US claims and new home sales beat. Price has been rejected at that high and is back under the 158.89 prior high after London close. RSI(14) has cooled to ~51 and price sits just above the 158.66 higher low, the 38.2% retracement of the London-NY leg.
Support: 158.66, 158.50
Resistance: 158.89, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.66 higher low breaks the intraday HH/HL chain and exposes the 158.50 round number, where rising support from the Asian low converges
Reclaim of the 158.89 prior high puts the 159.03 session high back in play
MoF level warnings or intervention headlines as price presses toward 159–160 could trigger a sharp yen rebound
Higher-low chain from Asia low; breakout above 158.88, now retesting.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows since the 157.80 Asia low. Strong US claims and home sales data pushed NY hours through the 158.88 prior high to a 159.03 session high at 15:30 UTC. After London close, price is holding a shallow retest of that prior high, above the rising trendline and both EMAs, with RSI(14) cooled to around 61.
Support: 158.87, 158.60, 158.48
Resistance: 159.03, 159.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.87 prior high returns price to the 158.60–158.87 congestion
Loss of the 158.60 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain; the Asia high at 158.48 and the rally fib 38.2% near 158.56 sit below
Acceptance above the 159.03 session high extends the breakout toward the 159.50 round number
MoF intervention headline risk rises into 159–160 and could trigger a gap-style JPY rebound
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and Friday's US durables and UoM data could shift the read
16:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 159.00 · RSI 62 · price 158.934
HH/HL chain from London low; rejection wick at session high.
The London leg from the 158.07 low carried through the NY session after sub-200K claims kept yields bid. It printed a higher low at the 158.61 swing low and a new session high at 159.03. The latest bar was rejected back under the 159.00 round number, with RSI(14) near 62 and not stretched.
Support: 158.885, 158.605
Resistance: 159.00, 159.032
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 158.885 prior high would neutralise the breakout and point to the rising trendline near 158.82.
Failure to hold the 158.605 swing low, close to the 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg, breaks the HH/HL chain.
An M15 close above the 159.03 session high extends the leg. MoF intervention headline risk rises into 159–160 and could gap the pair lower.
15:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 63 · price 158.976
HH/HL chain since London, higher lows 158.61/158.66 in NY.
The Asia dip to 157.80 on the JGB/Katayama yen bid faded. London broke above the Asian range, and upbeat US claims and new home sales kept the move going through NY. Dips held at the 158.61 swing low and the 158.66 higher low, and price is now at the 158.99 session high, just under the 159.00 round number, with RSI(14) ~63 and not stretched.
Support: 158.885, 158.658, 158.605
Resistance: 158.986, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.00 round number extends the HH chain; rejection there leaves a session high cap
Close back below the 158.885 prior high puts the 158.66 higher low and 158.61 swing low back in play
Break of the NY higher-low trendline would end the HL sequence
MoF rhetoric or intervention headlines near 159–160 could produce an abrupt yen spike irrespective of structure
HH/HL chain from Asia low; London range 158.60–158.89 broken higher in NY.
USD/JPY broke above the 158.60–158.89 London range during NY hours and set a session high at 158.985, after US claims and new home sales both beat. The higher-low chain and rising support from the 157.80 Asia low are intact, and price is pressing the 159.00 round number with RSI(14) near 63, not stretched.
Support: 158.89, 158.66, 158.48
Resistance: 158.985, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.89 breakout level would turn the NY push into a false break inside the London range
Loss of the 158.66 swing low would break the higher-low chain and the rising support line
Rejection at the 158.985 session high / 159.00 round number with RSI divergence would flag momentum stalling
MoF intervention rhetoric could trigger a sharp yen rebound; 158.48 prior high and the 38.2% fib near 158.53 are the next reference zone
15:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 58 · price 158.88
Higher lows since Asian low; Asian range broken above, NY holding near highs.
The rally from the 157.80 Asian low broke the asia high at 158.48 in London. NY is pressing the 158.90 session high after the 158.60 ny low and a 158.66 higher low held around the US claims and home sales beats. Rising lows remain intact, and RSI(14) near 58 shows no stretch.
Support: 158.66, 158.60, 158.48
Resistance: 158.90, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.66 higher low and 158.60 ny low breaks the rising lows
Acceptance above the 158.90 session high puts the 159.00 round number in play
A drop back through the asia high at 158.48 would retrace a large part of the rally from the Asian low
Unscheduled MoF intervention headlines in the 158.50–160 zone could reverse this read abruptly
15:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 60 · price 158.896
HH/HL chain since the London open, Asian range broken higher.
London cleared the Asian range high near 158.34 off a 157.80 low. A higher-low chain along rising lows has since carried USDJPY to a fresh session high at 158.90, with the 158.61 swing low holding after today's US claims and new home sales beats. RSI(14) near 60 is not stretched, and the 159.00 round number sits just overhead with intervention rhetoric in the backdrop.
Support: 158.66, 158.605, 158.484
Resistance: 158.898, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.61 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising lows trendline
Rejection at the 158.90 session high plus loss of the 158.66 higher low turns this into a 158.60–158.90 range
Failure at the 158.48 prior high (London high) exposes the 50% fib of the day's move near 158.35
159.00 round number is next overhead; MoF/intervention headlines could reverse the move sharply
Fed's Williams speaks Fri 09:15 UTC; US Treasury yields holding above 5% remain the dominant driver
HH/HL chain from Asian low; NY holding a tight 158.60–158.88 range.
USD/JPY climbed from the 157.80 Asian low, broke the 158.48 prior high in London and set a 158.885 session high. Early NY is compressing below that high with flat tops and higher lows near 158.60–158.66, and the strong US claims and new home sales drew a muted reaction. RSI(14) near 57 is neutral.
Support: 158.658, 158.605, 158.484
Resistance: 158.885, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.885 session high opens a test of the 159.00 round number
A break of the 158.66 swing low and rising support near 158.73 would signal the NY range resolving lower
Failure to hold the 158.60 ny low exposes the 158.48 prior high, which aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the Asian low to session high move
MoF intervention headlines in the 158.50–160 zone carry gap risk, and Trump-Xi summit headlines land today
HL chain from 157.795 Asia low, now a 158.60–158.89 range.
USD/JPY climbed from the 157.795 Asia low through the London session to a 158.885 session high, carried by firm US yields and soft Japan PMIs. Price has since ranged 158.60–158.89 into the first hour of NY, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 54. Strong US claims left little mark, and a second probe at 158.87 was rejected.
Support: 158.605, 158.48
Resistance: 158.885, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.885 session high breaks the range and opens the 159.00 round number
Failure to hold the 158.605 swing low exposes the 158.48 asia high, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the Asia low to session high move
MoF or intervention headlines in the 158.50–160 zone could trigger an abrupt yen rebound that overrides the intraday structure
14:16 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling · RSI 50 · price 158.70
Higher lows since Asia low; NY rejected near session high.
USDJPY recovered from the Asia dip to 157.80 on yen carry demand and firm US data, then cleared the 158.48 london high near the 200-day SMA. NY set a session high at 158.885, and the 13:45 UTC bar was rejected from 158.87. Price is holding above the 158.60 ny low and the rising trendline, with RSI(14) back to neutral.
Support: 158.605, 158.484
Resistance: 158.885, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.60 ny low and rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the 158.48 london high (38.2% fib) returns price to the pre-breakout zone
Clearance of the 158.885 session high puts the 159.00 round number in play
MoF intervention rhetoric or Trump-Xi headlines could materially shift this read
US New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC falls in the current bar
HH/HL chain from Asia low; 158.60–158.89 consolidation since London.
USDJPY based twice near 157.80 in Asia, then broke the Asian high at 158.48 into London. It printed a session high at 158.885, helped by firm US claims and UST yields above 5%. Since then it has held a 158.60–158.89 consolidation into early NY, with the 158.605 swing low sitting on the rising trendline and RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 158.605, 158.48, 158.40
Resistance: 158.885, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.885 session high extends the HH chain toward the 159.00 round number
Break of the 158.605 swing low and rising trendline exposes the Asian high at 158.48, the 38.2% fib zone
Loss of the 158.40 prior high would undo the London breakout
New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and unscheduled Trump-Xi or Japanese intervention headlines could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London open; tight 158.60–158.89 range in the first hour of NY.
The Asia session dip to 157.80 reversed hard. London broke the Asian high at 158.48 and cleared the ~158.50 200-day SMA as strong US data and yields above 5% kept the dollar bid. In the first hour of NY, price is compressing between the 158.605 swing low and the 158.885 session high, with intervention talk and a mid-50s RSI keeping momentum muted.
Support: 158.605, 158.484, 158.066
Resistance: 158.885, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.885 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 159.00 round number
Failure to hold the 158.605 swing low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 158.484 asian high
A loss of 158.48 reopens the 50% fib near 158.34 and the 158.066 london low
New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and Trump-Xi or MoF intervention headlines could abruptly shift this read
HH/HL from 158.07 low; lower-high pullback inside 158.60–158.89.
London cleared the Asian range and the 158.40 prior high, running to a 158.885 session high as USD tracked yields above 5%. Early NY is carving a lower-high flag beneath that peak. The 13:00 UTC dip to the 158.605 swing low was rejected just above the 38.2% fib of the 158.07–158.89 leg.
Support: 158.605, 158.48, 158.40
Resistance: 158.885, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.885 session high breaks the lower-high trendline and resumes the HH chain toward the 159.00 round number
Failure to hold the 158.605 swing low breaks the HL sequence, exposing the 158.48 breakout level and the 158.40 prior high
Paulson Fedspeak and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Any MoF intervention headline is an unscheduled risk of a sharp yen snapback
13:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back in early NY · RSI 44 · price 158.671
London HH/HL leg from 158.07 to 158.885; NY printing lower highs into the swing low.
London broke the Asian high at 158.48 and the London leg ran to a 158.885 session high on firm US yields and October hike talk. The first hour of NY has seen rejection there, with lower highs pressing the 158.64 swing low. Price is below EMA20, above EMA50 and RSI(14) is near 44, so the London advance is being retraced but not yet broken.
Support: 158.642, 158.484, 158.066
Resistance: 158.885, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.64 swing low confirms a lower low and opens the 50% fib of the London leg at the 158.48 Asian high
Loss of the 158.48 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the 158.07 London low
M15 close back above the 158.885 session high resumes the HH chain toward the 159.00 round number
Fed's Paulson (13:00 UTC) and New Home Sales (14:00 UTC) land in this session; hawkish Fedspeak or MoF intervention headlines could materially shift this read
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 44 · price 158.671
London HH/HL chain above Asian range, testing last higher low.
Yield-driven USD demand carried London through the Asian high at 158.48 and the 200-day SMA zone to a session high of 158.885, but price has faded into the NY open and now sits on the 158.64 swing low with RSI(14) near 44. Below that, the 50% fib of the London leg lines up with the Asian high around 158.48.
Support: 158.642, 158.484
Resistance: 158.885, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.64 swing low breaks the London HH/HL chain
Asian high at 158.48 (50% fib) is the retest zone for the London breakout
Reclaim of the 158.885 session high reopens the 159.00 psych level
Fed's Paulson at 13:00 UTC and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
MoF intervention headlines remain an unscheduled risk as price nears 159
Higher-low chain from 158.07 since London open; Asian range cleared to the upside.
Asia based twice near 157.80–157.84. London then built a higher-low chain from 158.07, clearing the 158.40 prior-day high and the 158.48 prior high on firm US yields and October Fed-hike bets. Price is holding just under the 158.88 session high as Claims print, with RSI(14) near 64 and not stretched.
Support: 158.64, 158.48, 158.40
Resistance: 158.885, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.64 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the 158.48 prior high would put the breakout above the prior-day high at 158.40 back in question
Claims reaction plus Hammack (12:50 GMT) and Paulson (13:00 GMT) could extend the 9-pip ATR range
A push through the session high toward the 159.00 round number raises MoF intervention headline risk
A break below the rising lows trendline would end the London higher-low chain
HH/HL chain off the 157.80 Asia low; London broke the yday high and 200d sma, now a tight 158.64–158.89 box.
London cleared the 158.40 yday high and the 158.48 200d sma on firm US yields, extending higher lows from the 157.80 Asia low to a 158.885 session high. Price is now holding a tight box above the 158.64 swing low with RSI(14) near 71, going into US jobless claims and Fedspeak.
Support: 158.64, 158.48, 158.40
Resistance: 158.885, 159.00
What it said to watch
Jobless claims (12:30 GMT), then Fed's Hammack 12:50 and Paulson 13:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 158.64 swing low, which is also below the rising lows trendline, breaks the HH/HL sequence
Loss of the 158.48 200d sma, where the 38.2% fib of the Asia low to session high move sits, and then the 158.40 yday high would turn the London breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 158.885 session high opens the 159.00 round number; MoF intervention rhetoric is a headline risk as price grinds higher
HH/HL chain above Asian range; session high 158.885.
London broke the Asian range high near 158.35 and yesterday's 158.40 prior high. Price then built a higher-high/higher-low chain from the 158.07 London low to a 158.885 session high, backed by the yields-driven USD bid. RSI(14) near 74 is flattening just under 158.90, with the 158.64 swing low and the 158.49 breakout lvl marking the higher-low structure into the NY open.
Support: 158.642, 158.49, 158.398
Resistance: 158.885, 159.00
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Fed's Hammack/Paulson at 12:50–13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 158.64 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 158.49 breakout lvl, near the 50% of the London leg fib
Failure to hold the 158.40 prior high puts price back inside Wednesday's NY range and breaks the rising London trendline
Acceptance above the 158.885 session high brings the 159.00 round number into view; MoF intervention rhetoric remains a tail risk on extension
12:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended into session high · RSI 75 · price 158.853
HH/HL chain since the 157.84 higher low; breakout above prior highs holding.
The Asia dip to 157.80 on Katayama's remarks found a higher low at 157.84. Price then broke above the 158.40–158.49 prior highs through London as US yields held above 5%, printing a session high at 158.87 late in London. The HL chain is intact above the 158.64 range low, with RSI(14) near 75: hot, but not extreme.
Support: 158.64, 158.49, 158.07
Resistance: 158.87, 159.00
What it said to watch
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, followed by Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read; the digest flags USD/JPY as most exposed to a soft print.
An M15 close below the 158.64 range low breaks the HL chain and puts the 158.49 breakout level (38.2% fib) up for retest.
Losing the 158.07 swing low would unwind the London breakout.
A close above the 158.87 session high brings the 159.00 round number into play, where MoF rhetoric risk rises.
London HH/HL chain; tight range 158.64–158.80 after breakout above prior high.
London lifted USD/JPY out of the 157.80–158.35 Asian range and through yesterday's 158.40 prior high and the ~158.50 200-day SMA, as the digest ties the move to US yields holding above 5%. Late in the London session, price is compressing in a 15-pip box between the 158.64 range low and the 158.80 session high. RSI(14) is near 73 and cooling, and rising support from the 158.07 pullback low is intact.
Support: 158.64, 158.40, 158.07
Resistance: 158.80, 159.00
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack/Paulson from 12:50 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 158.64 range low exposes the 158.40 prior high, near the 38.2% fib
Close above the 158.80 session high opens 159.00 round number; MoF/Katayama rhetoric risk rises with each push higher
Loss of the 158.07 pullback low breaks the London higher-low sequence
Higher lows from the Asia low; tight 158.70–158.80 range after the London breakout.
London cleared the 158.40 prior high and the 158.49 breakout zone, printing a 158.80 session high as US yields held above 5% after Wednesday's PMI beat. Since 09:30 UTC price has compressed in a 158.70–158.80 range, with RSI(14) easing to ~70 late in the London session.
Support: 158.706, 158.49, 158.398
Resistance: 158.798, 159.00
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K), then Hammack and Paulson from 12:50, could materially shift this read at the NY open
M15 close above the 158.80 session high opens the path to the 159.00 round number
Loss of the 158.70 range low exposes the 158.49 breakout level, near the 38.2% fib of the London leg
A drop back below the 158.40 prior high would turn the London move into a false break
Rising support from the Asia low (157.80) through the London low (158.07) stays intact well below price
MoF intervention rhetoric remains an unscheduled snap-back risk for the pair
HH/HL chain from the 157.84 low; tight consolidation above the 158.48 breakout.
USDJPY reversed the Tokyo dip to 157.80 and printed higher lows at 157.84 and the 158.07 swing low. During London it broke through the 158.48 prior high to a 158.80 session high, carried by firm US yields. Mid-London, price is compressing in a 158.71–158.80 band with RSI(14) near 72, and the 159.00 round number sits just overhead.
Support: 158.71, 158.48, 158.07
Resistance: 158.80, 159.00
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K), then Hammack 12:50 and Paulson 13:00, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 158.71 range low opens a retest of the 158.48 prior high
Failure to hold 158.48 and the higher-low trendline undercuts the breakout
Acceptance above the 158.80 session high brings the 159.00 round number into play, where MoF intervention rhetoric adds headline risk
Fib 38.2% of the 157.84–158.80 leg sits near 158.43, just under the prior high
11:01 UTC
Uptrend, pausing at session high · RSI 70 · price 158.754
HL chain from Asia low; tight consolidation below 158.80.
USDJPY broke the Asian range top before London, then cleared yesterday's 158.40 prior high and the 158.47–158.50 200-day area. That lifted price to a 158.80 session high as US yields above 5% keep the dollar bid. Price is now compressing between the 158.71 micro low and the session high, RSI(14) near 70, with the rising trendline from the Asia low intact.
Support: 158.71, 158.49, 158.40
Resistance: 158.80, 159.00
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson from 12:50 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 158.71 micro low ends the consolidation and brings the 158.49 breakout level into retest
Failure to hold the 158.40 prior high returns price into yesterday's range and weakens the breakout
A clean break of the 158.80 session high puts the 159.00 round number in play, with MoF rhetoric risk rising toward 160
A break of the rising trendline from the Asia low ends the higher-low chain; the london leg fib 50% sits near 158.43
10:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 70 · price 158.776
HH/HL chain from Asia low 157.80; London broke above Asian range.
London cleared the Asian high at 158.48 and the 158.50 area, extending the higher-low chain off 157.84 and the 158.07 London low to a session high at 158.80 on firm USD/yield tone. Price is compressing in a 7-pip band under the session high with RSI(14) near 70, ahead of US Jobless Claims.
Support: 158.63, 158.49, 158.07
Resistance: 158.80, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.80 session high opens the 159.00 round number
M15 close back below the 158.49 asian high (38.2% fib zone) returns price to the Asian range
Loss of the 158.63 swing low breaks the micro HL sequence
Failure to hold the 158.07 london low breaks the intraday higher-low trendline
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read
MoF intervention headlines near these levels could override structure, as Katayama's remark did in the Asia session
HH/HL chain since Asian low; broke above Asian range and prior high.
Pre-London buying cleared the Asian range high, and the London leg from the 158.07 swing low pushed through the 158.40 prior high and the 200d sma near 158.49 to a session high at 158.80, backed by hot US PMIs and higher yields. The last four bars have stalled under 158.80 with RSI(14) near 69, and the HH/HL chain is intact.
Support: 158.49, 158.40, 158.07
Resistance: 158.80, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 200d sma at 158.49 would flag a false break toward the 158.40 prior high
Loss of the 158.07 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and the rising lows trendline
Hold above the 158.80 session high opens the 159.00 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read
MoF intervention headlines remain a risk for a sharp JPY spike
10:16 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling under session high · RSI 74 · price 158.754
HH/HL chain from 157.84; London broke the Asian range and the prior-day high.
The post-PMI USD bid carried into London. USD/JPY cleared the Asian range, the prior-day high at 158.40 and the pre-London high at 158.48, then printed a session high at 158.78 after the dip to the 158.07 London low was bought. RSI(14) near 74 is stretched, and the last two bars are stalling just under 158.78 with the rising lows intact.
Support: 158.48, 158.40, 158.07
Resistance: 158.78, 159.00
What it said to watch
A pullback that holds the pre-London high at 158.48 (the 38.2% fib of the London leg) keeps the breakout structure intact
An M15 close back below the prior-day high at 158.40 would read as a false break
A clean break of the session high at 158.78 exposes the 159.00 round number
A break of the rising lows trendline, then the 158.07 London low, would end the HH/HL sequence
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack/Paulson from 12:50 could materially shift this read
Price is pressing into the zone where MoF intervention warnings tend to escalate, which is a source of headline-driven spike risk
Higher lows from the Asian low; London broke above the prior high.
London built a higher low at 158.07 (the london low), then cleared the 158.48 prior high to print a session high at 158.77, well off the 157.80 Asian low. The rising trendline from that low is intact, and the London leg's 38.2% retrace sits on the prior high. RSI(14) near 74 is hot but not extreme, with USD still bid on post-PMI Fed-hike pricing.
Support: 158.48, 158.07
Resistance: 158.77, 159.00
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson from 12:50 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 158.48 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 158.07 london low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Session high at 158.77 and the 159.00 round number are areas to watch for rejection or extension; intervention headlines are a tail risk
Mid-London, the post-PMI USD bid resumed after a higher low at the 158.07 London low. Price cleared yesterday's 158.40 prior high and the 158.48 Asian high to print a session high at 158.73. RSI(14) near 68 is firm but not stretched, and the Asian high lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the London leg.
Support: 158.48, 158.40, 158.07
Resistance: 158.73, 159.00
What it said to watch
Holding above the 158.48 Asian high keeps the higher-low chain intact; losing it re-exposes the 158.40 prior high
An M15 close below the 158.07 London low and the higher-lows trendline negates the London leg
Session high at 158.73 is the area to watch for rejection, or for extension toward the 159.00 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read; MoF intervention rhetoric is an unscheduled risk
09:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending at session high · RSI 68 · price 158.655
Higher lows from 157.80 Asian low; Asian range high broken during London.
After the Katayama-driven slide to the 157.80 Asian low, USD/JPY built higher lows. The London open dip to the 158.07 London low was absorbed, and price then broke through the 158.48 Asian high and yesterday's 158.40 prior high to a 158.68 session high. That puts it back above the 158.47 200-day SMA zone in play since the PMI beat, with RSI(14) near 68, hot but not extreme.
Support: 158.484, 158.398, 158.066
Resistance: 158.675, 159.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.48 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break back toward the 158.40 prior high
An M15 close below the 158.07 London low breaks the higher-low trendline structure
Pullbacks holding above the 38.2% of the Asian low fib (~158.34) keep the London extension intact
Price is 32 pips from the 159.00 round number, inside the zone where MoF/Katayama intervention headlines raise event risk
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson from 12:50 UTC could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending in London · RSI 67 · price 158.559
HH/HL chain from 157.80, Asian range high broken.
Early London cleared the Asian range high at 158.48 and yesterday's post-PMI prior high at 158.40, printing a session high at 158.59. The higher-low chain from the 157.80 Asia low, where Katayama's intervention reminder had knocked price back, now runs through the 158.07 London low. RSI(14) is near 67, firm but not stretched.
Support: 158.48, 158.40, 158.07
Resistance: 158.59, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 158.48 (asia high) turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 158.07 london low breaks the higher-low chain and the rally fib structure
Rejection at the 158.59 session high vs extension toward the 159.00 round number
MoF/Katayama rhetoric above 158.50 could trigger an abrupt yen spike
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend from the Asia low, momentum moderate · RSI 63 · price 158.391
Higher lows since 157.80; London pullback held 158.07, price back at the prior high.
The Asia session dip on Katayama's FX comments bottomed at the 157.80 Asian low, and firm US yields then lifted the pair to a 158.48 session high. The London open pullback held the 158.07 London low near the 61.8% fib of that rally. Price is back testing yesterday's 158.40 prior high with rising lows intact and RSI(14) around 63, not stretched.
Support: 158.07, 157.84, 157.80
Resistance: 158.40, 158.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.48 session high breaks the current cap and extends the higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 158.07 London low and the rising-lows line breaks the intraday uptrend and exposes the 157.84 higher low
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then Hammack (12:50) and Paulson (13:00), could materially shift this read
Any escalation in Japan FX intervention rhetoric could produce an abrupt move through the 157.80 Asian low
Higher lows from 157.80 Asia low; rejection at 158.48 session high, pullback held 158.07 london low.
The Tokyo-hours drop on Katayama's FX comments bottomed at the 157.80 asia low. A higher low at 157.84 then fed a pre-London run to a 158.48 session high at the 200-day SMA zone. That high was rejected, and the early-London pullback held 158.07, the london low near the 61.8% retrace, with price rebuilding to 158.30 under yesterday's 158.40 prior high.
Support: 158.07, 157.84, 157.80
Resistance: 158.40, 158.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.48 session high clears the 200-day SMA rejection and the 158.40 prior high
Break below 158.07 london low puts the rising lows line and 157.84 higher low in play
Loss of 157.80 asia low reverses the higher-low sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack/Paulson at 12:50–13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF/Katayama intervention headlines are a spike risk near the session high
Failed break above prior high, back inside 157.80–158.48 range.
Late-Asia rally from the 157.84 swing low cleared yesterday's 158.40 prior high to a 158.48 session high at the 200-DMA, then supply capped it into London open and price has retraced past the 50% fib to 158.12. Katayama's intervention reminder keeps offers near 158.50; RSI(14) ~53 and ATR ~12 pips, with the 158.00 round number just below.
Support: 158.00, 157.84, 157.80
Resistance: 158.40, 158.48
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 158.00 round number and 61.8% fib exposes the 157.84 swing low and 157.80 asian low
M15 close back above the 158.40 prior high negates the false break read
Any MoF escalation near the 158.48 session high could trigger a sharp yen spike
Higher lows off Asian low; rejection at 158.48 session high.
The Asian dip to the 157.84 asia lows on Katayama's intervention reminder was fully reversed. The late-Asia rally carried through the 158.40 prior high to a 158.484 session high at the 200-dma before rejecting. Early London has eased back to 158.34, only a shallow retracement of that leg, and RSI(14) has cooled to ~62 from the high-60s.
Support: 158.315, 158.16, 157.84
Resistance: 158.40, 158.484
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 158.484 200-dma opens the 158.50 intervention-sensitive zone; any MoF rhetoric risks a sharp reversal
Failure to hold the 158.315 pullback low exposes the 158.16 breakout area, near the 50% fib
A move back below 158.16 would put the 157.84 asia lows back in play
HH/HL from 157.84 swing low, retesting the broken 158.40 prior high.
A pre-London rally off the 157.84 swing low carried into London open, clearing yesterday's post-PMI highs near 158.40 to a 158.48 session high as the Fed-hike repricing reasserted over Katayama's Asia-session FX remarks. Price is now holding just above the 158.35 Asia high, with RSI(14) cooling to about 65 from overbought.
Support: 158.35, 158.16, 157.84
Resistance: 158.48
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.35 Asia high marks the 158.40 break as a false break
Loss of the 158.16 shelf (50% retracement) breaks the higher-low sequence on the higher lows trendline
Close above the 158.48 session high extends the uptrend into the 158.40-160 intervention zone
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF/Katayama escalation near 158.40+ is an unscheduled spike risk
Higher low at 157.84 after Asia dip; pre-London break above prior high 158.40, now retesting it.
The Asia-session dip to 157.80 on Katayama's FX remarks left a higher low at 157.84. Price then cleared the Asian range and yesterday's post-PMI prior high at 158.40 in the hour before London open, printing a 158.48 session high. The first London bar is back on 158.40, which also sits at the lower edge of the 158.40–160 intervention-risk zone.
Support: 158.40, 158.16, 157.84
Resistance: 158.48, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 158.40 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 158.16 swing low, the 50% of the 157.84–158.48 rally fib, exposes the 157.84 higher low
Acceptance above the 158.48 session high opens the 159.00 round number
Williams at 08:10 UTC and claims at 12:30 UTC; stronger MoF rhetoric near 158.40–160 could trigger a sharp JPY spike
07:01 UTC
Short-term uptrend, fresh day high · RSI 70 · price 158.43
Higher low at 157.84 held; breakout above Asian range and prior high.
Into London open, USD/JPY cleared the Asian range high at 158.37 and yesterday's post-PMI prior high at 158.40, printing a 158.48 day high after a higher low at 157.84 held above the 157.80 Asia low. RSI(14) is near 70. The push runs into the 158.40–160 area flagged for MoF intervention risk after Katayama's remarks capped Asia earlier.
Support: 158.40, 158.22, 158.00
Resistance: 158.48, 159.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.40 prior high back inside the Asian range reads as a false break
Loss of the 158.22 breakout base and the rising trendline from the 157.80/157.84 lows exposes the 158.00 round number
Acceptance above the 158.48 day high leaves the 159.00 round number as the next reference, though intervention rhetoric could interrupt it
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Uptrend off Asian low, testing highs · RSI 71 · price 158.397
Higher highs since 157.80 double bottom; pressing 158.40 cap.
Asia sold USD/JPY to the 157.80 asian low after Katayama's FX warning, but a double bottom at 157.80/157.84 held and the 158.10 neckline broke in the last Asian hours. Price is now at the 158.40–158.42 session high zone, matching yesterday's post-PMI highs, with RSI(14) near 71 and ATR around 11 pips.
Support: 158.16, 158.10, 157.80
Resistance: 158.416, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.416 session high opens the 158.50 round number
Rejection at 158.40 with a break of the 158.16 swing low puts the neckline at 158.10 back in play
Loss of the 158.10 neckline negates the double bottom and exposes the 157.80 asian low
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF intervention rhetoric is a standing risk with price at the 158.40 zone
06:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher highs and higher lows off Asia low · RSI 70 · price 158.262
HH/HL chain from 157.80; pressing the Asia high zone.
Late Asia, just ahead of London open. USDJPY has retraced most of the Asia-session drop that followed Katayama's FX remarks and the JGB yield jump. That drop bottomed at the 157.80 Asia low; a higher low at 157.84 then held, and price has cleared the 158.10 break level. RSI(14) is near 70 as price tests the 158.37 Asia high, with the 158.40 prior high from the post-PMI push just above.
Support: 158.10, 157.84, 157.80
Resistance: 158.37, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.40 prior high would extend the higher-high chain beyond the post-PMI range
Failure to hold the 158.10 break level puts the 157.84 higher low back in focus
A break below the 157.80 Asia low negates the recovery structure
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
MoF/Katayama escalation near 158.40 is a standing unscheduled risk for a sharp yen spike
06:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off Asia low · RSI 60 · price 158.215
Late Asia session, ahead of the London open. USD/JPY has retraced most of the Tokyo drop, the sell-off driven by the JGB yield jump and Katayama's intervention remarks. Price held a higher low at 157.84 above the 157.795 Asia low and broke the 158.10 neckline, and now sits near the 78.6% retracement just under the 158.24 session high. The Asia high at 158.35 and the 158.40 prior high from yesterday's PMI spike cap the move above.
Support: 158.096, 157.841, 157.795
Resistance: 158.243, 158.346, 158.398
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.10 neckline negates the double bottom breakout
Loss of the 157.84 higher low reopens the 157.795 Asia low
Close above the 158.40 prior high clears the post-PMI top; MoF rhetoric risk grows on any push toward 160
Williams at 08:10 UTC and US claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher low in place · RSI 66 · price 158.175
Late-Asia rebound from 157.80 low, reclaiming 158.10 swing high.
The Asia-open selloff from the 158.35 Asia high to the 157.80 Asia low came on the JGB yield jump and Katayama's intervention remarks. The drop has since been retraced: a 157.84 higher low held and the late-Asia push cleared the 158.10 swing high, putting price back above the 61.8% retrace ahead of London open.
Support: 158.10, 157.84, 157.80
Resistance: 158.35, 158.40
What it said to watch
Close back below the 158.10 swing high turns the push into a false break
Loss of the 157.84 higher low and the rising trendline reopens the 157.80 Asia low
158.35 Asia high and 158.40 NY high are the next caps; intervention headlines are a two-way spike risk into that area
Williams 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Pullback from 158.40, basing late in Asia · RSI 51 · price 157.975
Lower highs from 158.35 against higher lows off 157.80, compressing.
The PMI-driven NY spike stalled twice at the 158.40 prior high. The Tokyo reopen and the JGB yield jump then drove a slide to the 157.80 Asia low. The rebound capped at the 50% fib near the 158.10 swing high, and late Asia is compressing between falling highs and a 157.84 higher low just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 157.84, 157.80
Resistance: 158.10, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.84 higher low exposes the 157.80 Asia low and breaks the rising-lows line
Close above the 158.10 swing high clears the falling-highs line and the 50% fib, reopening the 158.40 prior high
London open in ~1.5h, Williams 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could break the compression
Any abrupt yen spike on MoF headlines would override the intraday structure
05:31 UTC
Post-Tokyo pullback, compressing late Asia · RSI 51 · price 157.93
Lower high 158.10 over higher low 157.84 after the swing low at 157.80.
Tokyo open knocked USDJPY off the 158.40 prior high as JGB yields jumped and Katayama restated the intervention principles, with the drop bottoming at a 157.80 swing low. The rebound stalled at the 50% fib near the 158.10 lower high, and late Asia is now coiling between the 158.00 round number and a 157.84 higher low, just under EMA20.
Support: 157.84, 157.80
Resistance: 158.00, 158.10, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.80 swing low breaks the higher-low line and resumes the Tokyo decline
Close back above the 158.10 lower high and the 50% fib reopens the 158.40 prior high
Acceptance above the 158.00 round number shifts the compression higher into London open
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Any fresh MoF/Katayama intervention rhetoric could drive an abrupt break of the 157.80 swing low
05:16 UTC
Downtrend since Asia open, lower highs · RSI 41 · price 157.848
Post-PMI 158.10–158.40 range broken lower; lower high at 158.10, retesting Asian low.
The post-PMI 158.10–158.40 range broke lower as Tokyo reopened, with the JGB yield spike and Katayama's intervention reminder driving the move. The Asia rebound stalled at the 50% fib of the session high-to-Asian low leg, leaving a lower high at 158.10. Price is back pressing the 157.80 Asian low with RSI(14) near 41, below the 158.00 psych level and both EMAs.
Support: 157.795, 157.767
Resistance: 158.00, 158.096, 158.398
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.80 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.77 pre-pmi low
Reclaim of the 158.00 psych level and the 158.10 lower high negates the breakdown read and puts the 158.40 session high back in view
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Any MoF or intervention headline carries unscheduled downside gap risk
05:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower high in place · RSI 42 · price 157.848
Lower-high sequence from 158.35, retesting Asian low.
The post-PMI range at 158.15–158.40 broke lower in the Asia session as the 10y JGB yield jumped and Katayama restated the intervention principles. The rebound off the 157.795 Asian low stalled at 158.096, a lower high near the 54% retracement of the Asia sell-off, and price is back pressing the lows late in Asia, below both EMAs.
Support: 157.795, 157.767
Resistance: 158.00, 158.096
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.795 Asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.767 pre-PMI low
Reclaim of the 158.00 round number and the 158.096 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
London open in ~2h may set a range outside the Asian range
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; MoF rhetoric is an unscheduled tail risk
04:46 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower high in place · RSI 45 · price 157.975
Lower high at 158.10 below the post-PMI high; mid-range between 157.80 and 158.10.
The post-PMI leg to 158.40 unwound at the Tokyo open, as Katayama's intervention remarks and the JGB yield jump drove a drop to an Asian low of 157.795. The rebound stalled at the 158.096 swing high near the 50% retracement. Late in the Asia session, price is back under the 158.00 round number, holding just above the 157.95 pullback low with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 157.951, 157.795, 157.767
Resistance: 158.00, 158.096, 158.398
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.096 swing high negates the lower-high read and reopens the 158.40 pmi high
Break of the 157.95 pullback low exposes the 157.80 asian low and the 157.77 pre-pmi low
Holding back under the 158.00 round number keeps the 50% retracement rejection intact
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could reset the session range
MoF/Katayama intervention rhetoric is an unscheduled risk for abrupt downside moves
Asia broke the NY range floor; lower high at 158.10 below 158.37.
Tokyo reopening reversed the post-PMI bid. USD/JPY broke the NY range and slid from 158.37 to an asia low of 157.80 as Katayama restated the intervention principles and JGB yields jumped. The rebound was rejected at the 158.10 bounce high, near the 50% retrace, and price is back under the 158.00 psych level with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 157.80, 157.77
Resistance: 158.00, 158.10, 158.40
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.80 asia low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 157.77 pre-PMI low, the base of the US PMI spike
M15 close back above the 158.10 bounce high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 158.40 NY high
Holding below the 158.00 psych level keeps the 50% retrace rejection intact
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, or any further MoF intervention rhetoric, could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Asia down leg from 158.35, now rebounding · RSI 48 · price 158.049
Higher lows off 157.80 Asian low, back above 158.00 and stalling under 158.10.
USD/JPY slid from 158.35 at the Tokyo open on the JGB 10y jump to 3.055% and Katayama's intervention reminder. The Asian low at 157.80 held just above the pre-PMI low at 157.77. Higher lows have since pushed price back to the 158.00 round number, with the rebound high at 158.10 stalling between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the Asia drop; RSI(14) is neutral near 48 and price is sitting on EMA20.
Support: 158.00, 157.795, 157.767
Resistance: 158.096, 158.312, 158.398
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.00 round number re-exposes the Asian low at 157.80 and the pre-PMI low at 157.77
M15 close above the 158.10 rebound high and the 61.8% fib (158.14) opens the 158.31 breakdown area, then the 158.40 NY high
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF/Katayama intervention headlines remain a two-way risk as price nears the 158.40 NY high
04:01 UTC
Recovering from Tokyo sell-off, momentum neutral · RSI 50 · price 158.082
Higher lows off 157.80 session low, back above 158.00 and at the 50% retrace of the Tokyo drop.
The Tokyo open sold off from the 158.35 tokyo high to a 157.80 session low on the JGB 10y jump and Katayama's intervention reminder, erasing most of the post-PMI NY gains that ran to the 158.40 ny high. Price has since broken above the 157.80–157.99 Asian range on a chain of higher lows along the rebound line, reclaiming the 158.00 round number. It now sits at the 50% retrace with the 61.8% fib at 158.14 overhead; RSI(14) is neutral near 50.
Support: 158.00, 157.80
Resistance: 158.14, 158.35, 158.40
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 158.14 opens a retest of the tokyo high at 158.35 and the ny high at 158.40
A close back below the 158.00 round number and the rebound line puts the 157.80 session low back in play
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF or Katayama headlines remain a live risk into 158.40
03:46 UTC
Asia down leg, late-session rebound · RSI 45 · price 158.031
Lower lows to 157.80, asia downline broken, testing 158.00.
Asia session unwound part of yesterday's PMI-driven rally, selling from 158.35 to the 157.80 asian low on the JGB 10y jump to 3.055% and Katayama's reminder that the post-intervention FX principles remain in effect. A three-bar late-Asia rebound broke the asia downline and is testing the 158.00 round number, level with EMA20 and the 38.2% fib. RSI(14) is recovering to 45.
Support: 158.00, 157.795
Resistance: 158.13, 158.398
What it said to watch
A close back below the 158.00 round number returns focus to the 157.80 asian low.
Acceptance above the 158.13 breakdown shelf, which aligns with the 61.8% fib, reopens the 158.40 ny high, where intervention rhetoric is a live risk.
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (forecast 201K) could materially shift this read.
Lower lows from 158.37 since Tokyo open, basing 157.80–157.99 under 158.00.
Tokyo open selling erased most of the post-PMI NY gains, driving USD/JPY from 158.37 to an asia low at 157.795 as the 10y JGB jumped to 3.055% and Katayama restated the FX principles. Price is now back at 157.94, just under 158.00 psych and the 38.2% fib, below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 157.795, 157.512
Resistance: 158.00, 158.13, 158.398
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.00 psych and the 38.2% fib opens a deeper retracement toward the 158.13 break level (61.8%)
Loss of the 157.795 asia low extends the lower-low sequence, with 157.51 prior low the next reference
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
MoF intervention language remains live on any return toward the 158.40 ny high
Tokyo-open range break lower, lower highs above 157.795.
The Tokyo-open selloff broke the 158.20–158.40 range as the 10y JGB hit 3.055% and Katayama repeated the FX principles. That erased the rally to the 158.398 pmi high and returned price to the pre-PMI band. The Asian session is now carving lower highs from 157.99 down toward the 157.795 asia low, with RSI(14) near 33 and ATR around 13 pips.
Support: 157.795, 157.767, 157.512
Resistance: 157.99, 158.08, 158.398
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.795 asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.767 pre-pmi low, then the 157.51 day low
M15 close above the 157.99 lower high and 158.00 breaks the Asia sequence; the fib 50% of the Tokyo selloff sits at 158.08
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; any escalation in MoF language remains live
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 32 · price 157.859
Tokyo selloff erased post-PMI break; lower highs above 157.80.
Tokyo session unwound the whole post-PMI leg, sliding from 158.35 to a 157.80 session low after the JGB 10y jump to 3.055% and Katayama's FX warning. Yesterday's break above 158.00 now reads as a false break. Price is compressing under a lower-highs line capped by the 157.99 bounce high, with RSI(14) at 32.
Support: 157.80, 157.77
Resistance: 157.99, 158.13, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.99 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line; the 38.2% fib at 158.02 sits just above
Failure to hold the 157.80 session low exposes the 157.77 pre-PMI low and a full retrace of the PMI break
Reclaim of the 158.13 ny low is needed before the 158.40 pmi high comes back into view
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, and any MoF escalation could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia open; the NY PMI rally is almost fully retraced.
The Asia session unwound most of the NY PMI spike. The Tokyo drop from 158.35 to 157.80 came on Katayama's FX remarks, and price is now pressing the pre-PMI base at 157.77 with RSI(14) near 33. Lower highs have held since the Asia open, and bounces are stalling just under the 158.00 round number.
Support: 157.77, 157.51
Resistance: 158.00, 158.10, 158.40
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.77 pre-PMI base exposes the day low at 157.51
An M15 close above the 158.00 round number breaks the lower-highs chain; the NY low at 158.10 is next, near the 50% of the Tokyo drop
The 158.40 double top from the NY session remains the ceiling of the day's range
Any escalation in MoF language or reports of BoJ rate checks could extend the drop
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-PMI 158.10–158.40 range broken lower; tight 157.82–157.99 base in Asia session.
Katayama's FX remarks early in the Asia session broke the 158.10–158.40 post-PMI range under the 158.40 double top. The drop retraced roughly 75% of the PMI leg to a 157.82 session low. Price is now compressing in a 157.82–157.99 band just below the pre-PMI high, with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 157.82, 157.77
Resistance: 157.99, 158.13, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.99 pre-PMI high, then the 158.13 breakdown level, would signal the Katayama drop is being absorbed
Failure to hold the 157.82 session low exposes the 157.77 pre-PMI low and a full retrace of the PMI leg fib
Escalating MoF/Katayama rhetoric could extend the yen move; Williams at 08:10 UTC is the next USD risk into London
Lower highs and lows since Tokyo open; NY range low broken.
Tokyo's return from Silver Week brought a sharp yen bid in the Asia session. It erased the whole post-PMI rally from the 158.40 PMI high and broke the NY range low at 158.10. Price is pressing the 157.83 session low with RSI(14) near 32, and the bounce was capped below the 158.00 psych level.
Support: 157.834, 157.767, 157.512
Resistance: 158.00, 158.105, 158.398
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.83 session low exposes the pre-PMI low at 157.77, then the prior low at 157.51.
A recovery above 158.00 psych and the 158.10 NY range low (50% fib of the Asia drop) would neutralise the breakdown.
Any MoF verbal warnings as Tokyo liquidity returns could materially shift this read.
Williams at 08:10 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could also shift it.
Asia-session breakdown from the 158.10–158.40 post-PMI range; lower highs, basing near 157.84.
Price slid about 50 pips from 158.34 to 157.84 as Tokyo liquidity returned from Silver Week. That broke the 158.10–158.40 post-PMI range, set up since the 158.398 session high, and retraced roughly 88% of yesterday's PMI leg. Soft Japan PMIs gave the yen no fundamental lift, yet bounces have stalled under 158.00, and RSI(14) near 30 sits below both EMAs.
Support: 157.841, 157.767
Resistance: 158.00, 158.105, 158.398
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 158.00 round number and the 158.105 ny low would negate the Asia breakdown and put price back inside the range
Break of the 157.84 asia low exposes the 157.77 pmi base, a full retrace of the PMI leg
Retest of the 158.398 session high only if the range is reclaimed; that is the 158.40 cap flagged in the digest
MoF rhetoric risk with Tokyo back; Williams 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-PMI range broken lower; lower highs and lows since Tokyo open.
After two rejections at the 158.40 session high, the post-PMI range broke lower as Tokyo returned from Silver Week. A 50-pip Asia-session slide to the 157.84 Asia low came despite soft Japan PMIs and has retraced about 70% of the PMI leg. Price is steadying just under the 158.00 round number with RSI(14) near 33, and the 158.10 lower high caps the bounce so far.
Support: 157.84, 157.77
Resistance: 158.00, 158.10, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.00 round number and 158.10 lower high would neutralise the breakdown and put price back inside the PMI range
Failure to hold the 157.84 Asia low exposes the 157.77 pmi low, a full retrace of the PMI-leg fib
Any MoF or intervention rhetoric during Tokyo hours can extend yen spikes beyond the ~11-pip ATR
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-PMI range broken lower at Tokyo open; lower highs through Asia session.
Tokyo's reopen after the holiday brought a sharp yen bid, breaking the 158.11–158.40 post-PMI range low and slicing through the 158.00 round number to a 157.84 session low. That erases about 85% of the PMI rally from 157.77. RSI(14) near 28 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 157.84, 157.77, 157.51
Resistance: 158.00, 158.11, 158.40
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.77 pmi low fully unwinds the PMI rally and exposes the 157.51 prior low
M15 close back above the 158.00 round number and the 158.11 range low would mark the break as a false break
MoF/BoJ intervention rhetoric during the Tokyo session could extend the yen spike
Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the read on Fed-hike pricing
Prior high at 158.40 caps the upside while price stays below the range
01:16 UTC
Post-PMI uptrend stalled, sharp pullback at Tokyo open · RSI 37 · price 158.037
Overnight 158.20–158.37 range broken lower; wick to 157.90 recovered.
Tokyo's post-holiday reopen knocked USD/JPY out of the 158.20–158.37 overnight range. A spike to the 157.90 tokyo low swept the 158.02 pmi low before price recovered to 158.04, near the 61.8% retrace of the PMI leg. Price is below both EMAs, RSI(14) is around 37, and the 158.40 day high has capped the pair since the flash PMI beat.
Support: 158.02, 157.90, 157.77
Resistance: 158.20, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.20 range floor puts price back inside the overnight range and negates the break
Acceptance below the 157.90 tokyo low exposes the 157.77 pre-pmi low and a full retrace of the PMI leg
158.40 day high remains the cap; a retake resumes the post-PMI higher-high sequence
MoF/BoJ intervention rhetoric during Tokyo hours and Williams at 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
Sideways 158.02–158.40 box after the PMI breakout; Asian range forming inside it.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC broke USD/JPY out of the sub-158.00 range. Price has since boxed between the 158.02 post-PMI low and the 158.40 range top, which capped twice during NY hours. The Tokyo reopen dip held the 158.13 asian low, just above the 38.2% retrace of the PMI leg. Price sits mid-Asian range below the 158.37 asian high, with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 158.13, 158.08, 158.02
Resistance: 158.37, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 range top (UOB resistance) breaks the box toward the 158.44–159.53 zone
Failure at the 158.13 asian low exposes the 50% fib at 158.08 and the 158.02 post-pmi low
MoF/BoJ rhetoric or rate-check reports during Tokyo hours could trigger a sharp JPY spike
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC is the next scheduled USD driver
The blowout US flash PMIs lifted USD/JPY from 157.77 into a 158.10–158.40 range, capped at the 158.398 prior high through NY hours. At the Tokyo open, a push to the 158.35 tokyo high reversed sharply to a 158.134 tokyo low. Price now sits below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 42, just above the 38.2% fib of the PMI leg.
Support: 158.134, 158.105, 158.02
Resistance: 158.35, 158.398
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.105 swing low breaks the range floor and exposes the 158.02 pmi low and the 50% fib near 158.08
Close above the 158.398 prior high clears the range top into the 158.40–158.44 resistance zone
Tokyo reopening brings MoF intervention or rate-check headlines that could move the pair sharply
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift October hike pricing
00:31 UTC
Post-PMI step higher, now flat and compressing · RSI 49 · price 158.32
Range 158.19–158.40 above the PMI breakout.
The US PMI beat lifted USDJPY out of its 157.47–157.99 range. Price has since held a 158.19–158.40 box through late NY and early Asia, with the ny high at 158.40 rejecting twice. Tokyo is back from holiday, RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and ATR is about 7 pips, with no directional break in play.
Support: 158.19, 158.105, 158.02
Resistance: 158.40, 158.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 ny high breaks the range and brings the 158.44 zone base into view
Failure at the 158.19 range low exposes the 158.105 ny swing low, then the 158.02 pmi low near the 61.8% of the PMI leg fib
MoF commentary or rate-check headlines now that Tokyo has reopened could produce an outsized yen spike
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, could shift this read
The US PMI beat drove USD/JPY from 157.77 to a 158.40 NY high. Price has since compressed inside 158.10–158.40, holding near the 23.6% of the PMI leg. Early Asia has set a 158.19 asian low and a 158.37 asian high, with price mid-range just under ema20.
Support: 158.19, 158.10, 158.02
Resistance: 158.37, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 ny high opens the 158.44–159.00 zone, where MoF intervention rhetoric is the main risk
Loss of the 158.19 asian low exposes the 158.10 ny low; below the 158.02 post-pmi low the range read gives way to a deeper retrace of the PMI leg
Tokyo reopen flows and Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could break the current range
158.10–158.40 range after PMI breakout, higher lows.
The US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC drove a breakout from 157.98 to a 158.40 session high, where supply capped twice during NY hours. Since then price has held a 158.10–158.40 consolidation with higher lows off the ny low and the late low, RSI(14) flat near 51 into the Asia session.
Support: 158.19, 158.105, 158.02
Resistance: 158.398
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 session high breaks the range and brings the intervention zone into play as Tokyo reopens
Loss of the 158.19 late low and the rising trendline puts the 158.105 ny low back in focus
Break of the 158.02 post-pmi low (near the 61.8% fib) would retrace most of the PMI leg
MoF jawboning or rate-check headlines during the Asia session could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled USD risks