USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 25 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:46 UTC
Downtrend paused, late-NY range · RSI 49 · price 157.267
Range 156.94–157.47 after selloff, lower highs.
Katayama's 'bold action' yen warning drove a London-to-NY slide from 158.29 through the Asian range low near 157.95 to a 156.94 session low. Since then price has held a 156.94–157.47 range with lower highs at the range top and 157.37, now sitting mid-range near the 23.6% fib of the London-NY leg, just above the 157.11 swing low, with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 157.11, 156.94
Resistance: 157.37, 157.47, 157.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.37 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; above the 157.47 range top opens the prior supp at 157.60
Loss of the 157.11 swing low puts the 156.94 session low back in play
Thin late-Friday liquidity; BoJ minutes Sep 27 23:50 UTC and any MoF intervention headlines carry gap risk into the next open
Lower highs from 157.47 and higher lows from 156.94 forming a pennant into the Friday close.
USDJPY bled from 158.90 through Asia and London, and the NY-session leg reached a 156.94 day low, extending the slide from 159.00 on Katayama's intervention warnings. A double bottom at 156.94/156.97 held, and late NY has compressed between a 157.37 lower high and a 157.11 swing low. Price sits just above the EMA20 in thin pre-close trade, with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 157.11, 156.94
Resistance: 157.37, 157.47, 157.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.37 lower high breaks the pennant top and brings the 157.47 bounce high (38.2% fib) into play
Failure to hold the 157.11 swing low reopens the 156.94 day low and double bottom
The 157.66 london low sits just above UOB's 157.60 support, now overhead as the pivot back toward the recovery zone
Weekend MoF/US Treasury FX headlines and BoJ minutes (Sep 27 23:50 UTC) carry Monday gap risk
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, now pausing in late NY · RSI 55 · price 157.246
Lower highs and higher lows since the 156.94 low; compression below 157.37.
USD/JPY bled from 158.94 through Asia and London as Katayama's 'bold action' yen warnings weighed, and the NY-open flush printed a 156.94 session low. Since then it has compressed between the 157.11 swing low and the 157.47 NY high, with a falling lower-highs line capping and a rising higher-lows line underneath in thin late-Friday trade.
Support: 157.11, 156.94
Resistance: 157.37, 157.47, 157.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.37 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 157.47 NY high, then the 157.60 UOB level
Failure to hold the 157.11 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and reopens the 156.94 session low
Weekend gap risk on MoF intervention or rate-check headlines; BoJ minutes Sun 23:50 UTC
Asian low broken in London; NY low at 156.94 followed by a 156.94–157.47 range with a lower high.
USD/JPY lost the Asian low at 157.95 during London and ran to a 156.94 day low in NY as the yen firmed on Katayama intervention jawboning and softer oil. The NY rebound was rejected at the fib 38.2% (157.47). Price is now drifting just above the 157.11 session low, below EMA20, in thin post-London trade.
Support: 157.11, 156.94
Resistance: 157.37, 157.47, 157.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.37 lower high, then the 157.47 fib 38.2%, breaks the lower-high sequence
Recovery through 157.47 puts the UOB level at 157.60 (prior London support) back in play
Failure to hold the 157.11 session low exposes a retest of the 156.94 day low
Weekend intervention headlines from Tokyo, or BoJ minutes Sep 27 23:50 UTC, could gap this read at the open
Lower highs inside a 156.94–157.47 range after the NY-hours low.
USDJPY fell ~200 pips from the 158.90 area during Asia as the yen outperformed on Katayama intervention jawboning, printing a 156.94 NY low. Price has since held a 156.94–157.47 range, with rejection near the fib 38.2 and a lower high at 157.37, and is now sitting just above the 157.11 late-NY low into the Friday close.
Support: 157.11, 156.94
Resistance: 157.37, 157.47, 157.66
What it said to watch
Break below the 157.11 late-NY low exposes the 156.94 NY low and a lower-low extension
Close above the 157.37 lower high and fib 38.2 at 157.47 breaks the lower-highs trendline and tilts the range read higher
Reclaim of the 157.66 London low would signal the NY-hours slide has fully stalled
Thin Friday-close liquidity plus live intervention rhetoric raise gap risk; BoJ minutes Sep 27 23:50 UTC
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late-NY range · RSI 45 · price 157.147
Lower highs capping a 156.94–157.47 range after the day's selloff.
USD/JPY slid from 158.94 through the Asian range low and on through London as Katayama intervention jawboning and softer oil weighed, printing an NY low at 156.94 before a double test near 156.97. Since then price has held a 156.94–157.47 range, with a lower high at 157.37 under the descending trendline. Late in the NY session it sits just above the 157.11 swing low, with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 157.11, 156.94
Resistance: 157.37, 157.47
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.94 ny low resumes the downtrend
Close above the 157.37 lower high and descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the 157.47 ny high is next
Failure to hold the 157.11 swing low puts the range floor back in play
Thin Friday-close liquidity and any weekend MoF intervention headlines could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late NY range · RSI 40 · price 157.145
Lower highs inside a 156.94–157.47 range after the day's selloff.
USDJPY slid from 158.29 through London to a 156.94 day low in the first hours of NY after Katayama's intervention warning lifted the yen. Since then it has ranged, with rejection at the 157.47 NY high (38.2% fib) and a lower high at 157.37. Price is leaning on the 157.11 late low into the weekly close, RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 157.11, 156.94
Resistance: 157.37, 157.47
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.11 late low exposes the 156.94 day low; a close beneath it resumes the downtrend
M15 close above the 157.37 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and puts the 157.47 NY high / 38.2% fib back in play
Weekend intervention headline risk (Katayama/MoF) and BoJ Minutes Sep 27 23:50 UTC could open the week with a gap through this range
Thin liquidity into Friday's close can exaggerate moves around the range edges
Lower highs capping bounces above a 156.94 double-test low.
Katayama's intervention warning drove a ~190-pip slide from the Asian high near 158.85 to the 156.94 swing low during NY hours. A 16:00 UTC retest near 156.97 held that low. Late-NY bounces are now fading under lower highs at 157.47 (ny high) and 157.37, near the 23.6% fib, and price is drifting back toward the 157.11 late low into the weekly close.
Support: 157.11, 156.94
Resistance: 157.37, 157.47, 157.66
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.11 late low reopens a test of the 156.94 swing low
Close below 156.94 breaks the double-test and extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 157.47 ny high breaks the lower-high trendline and exposes the fib 38.2 at 157.66
Intervention headline risk persists over the weekend and could gap this read
Lower highs from 157.47 compressing over 157.14–156.94 lows.
Katayama's intervention warnings drove a steady slide from the Asian range above 158.80 through London to a session low at 156.94 in the first hour of NY. The low was retested at 156.97 and held, but the bounce stalled at the fib 38.2 near 157.47, and late-NY trade is compressing under a lower high at 157.37 with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 157.14, 156.94
Resistance: 157.37, 157.47, 157.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.37 lower high breaks the descending line; clearing 157.47 (fib 38.2) confirms the double bottom
Loss of the 157.14 swing low reopens the 156.94 session low
Reclaiming 157.60 ex-support would neutralise the downtrend read
Weekend gap risk on MoF/US Treasury yen headlines; BoJ Minutes Sun 23:50 UTC
18:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late NY · RSI 54 · price 157.274
Lower highs capping a 156.94–157.47 range after 200-pip slide.
Yen strength on Katayama's intervention warnings drove a steady slide from 158.94 through Asia. London broke the Asian low at 157.95 and early NY flushed to a 156.94 session low. Since then price has held twin lows near 156.94–156.97 and ranged below a 157.47 range top, which lines up with the 61.8% of the NY drop, with lower highs forming into thin late-Friday trade.
Support: 157.13, 156.94
Resistance: 157.47, 157.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.47 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 157.77 prior pivot
Loss of the 157.13 swing low returns price to the session low at 156.94; a break there resumes the downtrend
BoJ Minutes (Sun 23:50 UTC) or any MoF/rate-check headline over the weekend could gap the open
Lower-high chain from 158.94 to 156.94, now basing in a 156.94–157.47 range.
USD/JPY slid about 200 pips from the 158.94 Thursday high through Asia, London and early NY, as Katayama's intervention warnings and talk of US-Japan action lifted the yen, before bottoming at the 156.94 session low. Since then, late NY has been confined below the 157.47 range top. Twin lows at 156.94/156.97 and a higher low at 157.10 hold under price, and price is sitting on rising support near 157.25 just below the EMA20.
Support: 157.10, 156.94
Resistance: 157.37, 157.47, 157.60
What it said to watch
M15 close back below rising support near 157.20 puts the 157.10 higher low back in play
Failure to hold the 156.94 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Close above the 157.37 recent high and then the 157.47 range top turns the twin lows into a double bottom; the 157.60 broken low and the 157.41 decline fib 23.6% level sit overhead
Thin liquidity after London close into the weekend; any MoF or US Treasury yen headline can gap the pair
18:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late NY range · RSI 43 · price 157.272
Lower highs from Asia into NY; 156.94–157.47 range since 13:45 UTC.
USD/JPY fell from the 158.85 Asian high through the Asian low in London, then broke the 157.60 prior supp in the first hour of NY after the mixed durables print, bottoming at the 156.94 ny low as intervention jawboning kept the yen bid. Since then price has held a 156.94–157.47 range: the retest of the low held and left a double bottom, while the range top has capped twice near the 61.8% of the ny drop fib, with price now mid-range at 157.27, just under EMA20.
Support: 157.08, 156.94
Resistance: 157.47, 157.60
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read in the late NY session
M15 close above the 157.47 range top opens a retest of 157.60 prior supp
Loss of the 157.08 higher low puts the 156.94 ny low back in play; a break there resumes the downtrend
Japanese intervention or rate-check headlines can gap the pair through the range
17:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into NY range · RSI 52 · price 157.305
Lower highs through London, NY range 156.94–157.47 with twin lows.
Katayama's intervention jawboning drove a yen bid through Asia and London. The pair fell from 158.83 through the 157.60 breakdown level to a 156.94 session low at the London-NY transition. Since then NY has held a 156.94–157.47 range, with twin lows at 156.94/156.97 and price after London close at 157.30, below the range top that caps at the 38.2% fib of the London high–session low drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR(14) is about 18 pips.
Support: 157.13, 156.94
Resistance: 157.47, 157.60, 157.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.47 range top turns the twin lows into a double-bottom base. The 157.60 breakdown level (50% fib) and the 157.77 lower high (61.8%) are next.
Loss of the 157.13 swing low puts the 156.94 session low back in play; a break there resumes the lower-low sequence.
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC, and any Japanese intervention or rate-check headline, could gap the pair out of this range.
Lower highs from 158.85; double bottom near 156.95, bounce capped at 157.47.
USDJPY bled from 158.85 through Asia and London, then broke lower in NY hours on Katayama's 'bold action' warning and talk of coordinated US-Japan action, printing a 156.94 session low. Twin lows at 156.94/156.97 have held, and late in the NY session, after London close, price is mid-range near the 50% retrace of the NY selloff fib, capped by the 157.47 lower high near the 61.8%.
Support: 157.08, 156.94
Resistance: 157.47, 157.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.47 lower high opens the 157.77 breakdown area where the NY selloff began
Failure to hold the 157.08 swing low exposes the 156.94 session low and puts the double bottom at risk
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift USD tone into the close
Any MoF or rate-check headline can gap the pair lower regardless of structure
17:16 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY flush · RSI 46 · price 157.25
Asia and London ground USD/JPY from 158.85 to 157.49, and the NY-hours flush to the 156.94 session low came as Katayama's intervention warnings and US-Japan coordination talk lifted the yen. A second low at 156.97 and a higher low near 157.10 have price at 38.2% of the NY drop, but the rebound stalled at the NY high of 157.47, the broken London low, with price under both EMAs.
Support: 157.10, 156.94
Resistance: 157.47, 157.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.47 NY high completes the double bottom and exposes the 157.77 breakdown point
Loss of the 157.10 higher low returns focus to the 156.94 session low; a break there extends the downtrend
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC and weekend intervention or US-Iran headlines could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a NY range · RSI 46 · price 157.25
Lower highs from 158.29; NY range 156.94–157.47 with a double low at the base.
Asia and London extended the slide through the Asian low near 157.95 as Katayama's intervention warnings and talk of coordinated US-Japan action lifted the yen. NY printed a session low at 156.94 twice and has since chopped between 156.94 and the 157.47 range top, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg. Price sits just under ema20 at 157.33, above the 157.13 swing low.
Support: 157.13, 156.94
Resistance: 157.33, 157.47, 157.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.47 range top breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 157.60 breakdown area near the 50% fib
Loss of the 157.13 swing low puts the 156.94 session low back in play; a close below it confirms a fresh lower-low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC and any Japanese intervention or rate-check headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 159.03; NY-open flush to 156.94, now ranging 156.94–157.47.
Steady selling through Asia and London on Katayama's intervention warnings and talk of US-Japan coordination, then a breakout below 157.60 prior supp at the NY open that ran to a 156.94 session low. The rebound stalled at 157.47, the 61.8% retrace of that final leg. Price is now back near the 157.00 round number, with a second low at 156.97 holding just above the session low.
Support: 157.00, 156.94
Resistance: 157.47, 157.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below 156.94 session low confirms a fresh lower low and extends the downtrend
Close above the 157.47 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and brings 157.60 prior supp back in play
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC and any MoF or rate-check headlines could gap price through the range
16:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a range · RSI 40 · price 157.114
Lower lows through Asia and London; NY range 156.94–157.47 since the 13:30 UTC low.
Yen strength on Katayama's intervention warnings carried USD/JPY through the Asian range and London lows, and the pair broke 157.60 support in the first hour of NY to a 156.94 session low. Since then a 156.94–157.47 range has held: the range top capped three rebounds at the 61.8% fib of the NY drop, and the 16:00 UTC bar retested the session low near the 157.00 round number.
Support: 157.00, 156.94
Resistance: 157.47, 157.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.94 session low extends the lower-low sequence; the 157.00 round number is the first test
M15 close above the 157.47 range top reopens the broken 157.60 support
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC, or any MoF intervention or rate-check headline, could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through all sessions · RSI 37 · price 157.125
Lower-high chain from Asia to NY; NY bounce capped near 157.47.
Yen strength on Katayama's intervention warnings kept USD/JPY printing lower highs. Price broke the Asian low near 157.95 in London, then slipped through 157.60 (now broken supp) in NY to a 156.94 NY low. The rebound stalled twice at the 157.45–157.47 bounce high, around the 38.2% fib of the London-high-to-NY-low leg. After London close price is back at 157.13, just above the 157.00 round number, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 157.00, 156.936
Resistance: 157.468, 157.60
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.00 round number and the 156.94 NY low confirms a fresh lower-low
An M15 close above the 157.47 bounce high and 38.2% fib opens a retest of 157.60 broken supp
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift USD tone into the weekend close
Japanese intervention or rate-check headlines can gap the pair lower in thin late-Friday trade
16:01 UTC
Downtrend, bounce faded · RSI 36 · price 157.128
Lower highs and lower lows from 159.03; post-low range 156.94–157.47, lower high at bounce high.
Katayama's intervention warnings drove a steady slide from the Asian range high near 158.85. London broke the 157.66 London low, and the NY-hours leg printed a 156.94 day low. The bounce stalled at the 157.47 bounce high, right at the 38.2% fib, and price is now back on the 157.13 higher low after London close with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 157.13, 156.94
Resistance: 157.47, 157.66
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.13 higher low leaves the 156.94 day low as the next reference
A break of the 156.94 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the 157.47 bounce high and the falling trendline would neutralise the lower-high read; the london low at 157.66 sits above
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC and any MoF or rate-check headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.29; NY sell-off to 156.94, now compressing 157.13–157.47.
Japanese jawboning drove a stepwise slide from 158.84 through Asia and London. NY hours then broke the 157.60 breakdown area to a 156.94 session low. The rebound capped at the 157.47 bounce high, near the 61.8% of the NY drop, and price is now coiling above a 157.13 higher low, below EMA20 and the falling trendline.
Support: 157.13, 156.94
Resistance: 157.47, 157.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.47 bounce high and the falling trendline reopens the 157.60 breakdown area
Failure to hold the 157.13 higher low exposes the 156.94 session low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC and any MoF / rate-check headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.29; Asian range broken lower; higher low forming off 156.94.
USD/JPY broke the Asian range low near 157.95 in London and extended to a 156.94 session low in the first hour of NY. Japanese intervention jawboning kept the yen bid through the old 157.60 area. The rebound has twice stalled near the 157.47 bounce high, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg, ema20 and the descending trendline, while the 157.13 higher low holds.
Support: 157.13, 157.00, 156.94
Resistance: 157.47, 157.61, 157.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.47 bounce high and descending trendline opens the fib 50% at 157.61, then the 157.77 ny open high
Failure to hold the 157.13 higher low exposes 157.00 psych and the 156.94 session low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC or any MoF/rate-check headline could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from 158.29; NY bounce off 156.94 capped at 38.2%.
The yen outperformed on Katayama's intervention warnings and reports of US concern over yen weakness. The pair broke below the 158.28 Asian range low and then the 157.60 prior supp level in London, before the NY session printed a 156.94 session low. The NY bounce stalled at the 157.47 bounce high, the 38.2% retracement, and price is back near 157.15, below the 157.77 swing high and the descending trendline.
Support: 157.00, 156.94
Resistance: 157.47, 157.60, 157.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.47 bounce high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold 157.00 round number and 156.94 session low extends the lower-low sequence
157.60 prior supp is now overhead; rejection there keeps the breakdown read intact
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift USD tone
Any MoF rate-check or joint US-Japan action headline could gap the pair lower
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce in NY · RSI 44 · price 157.412
Lower highs since London; bounce testing broken London low.
Early NY broke the London low at 157.49 and ran to a session low of 156.94 on renewed Katayama intervention warnings and Iran-driven USD profit-taking. The 53-pip bounce has stalled at 157.47, where the fib 61.8 of the 157.77 lower high to session low leg meets the falling trendline and the old london low. Price sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 157.20, 157.00, 156.936
Resistance: 157.47, 157.493, 157.768
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.50 (london low / falling trendline) breaks the lower-high sequence toward the 157.77 lower high
Loss of the 157.20 bounce base reopens psych 157.00 and the 156.94 session low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC and weekend intervention headlines could materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, early NY rebound testing resistance · RSI 45 · price 157.444
Lower highs and lower lows from Asia through London; NY bounce retesting broken London low.
USDJPY slid steadily from Asia through London, and early NY extended the move to a 156.94 session low. Per the digest, the driver was Katayama's intervention warnings alongside USD profit-taking. The rebound that started around the 14:00 UTC UoM release has recovered roughly 50 pips into a cluster at 157.45–157.52: the 38.2% fib, the broken London low at 157.49, EMA20 and the falling trendline.
Support: 157.00, 156.94
Resistance: 157.49, 157.61, 157.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the falling trendline and the 157.49 london low breaks the lower-high sequence, exposing the fib 50% at 157.61 and the 157.77 swing high
Rejection at 157.49–157.52 keeps the downtrend intact; a break of the 156.94 session low and the 157.00 round number extends the leg
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC and any MoF intervention headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.29; Asian range low broken in London, early-NY extension.
Lower highs all day. The Asian range low at 157.95 gave way in London, and early NY extended to a 156.94 session low as Katayama's intervention warnings and Iran-related USD profit-taking weighed. The 14:00 UTC bar bounced off the 157.00 round number to a 157.29 bounce high, still beneath the 157.49 London low and the falling trendline.
Support: 157.00, 156.94
Resistance: 157.29, 157.49, 157.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.49 London low and the lower-high trendline would stall the downtrend read
Break of the 156.94 session low extends the lower-low sequence; the 157.00 round number has held twice
Recovery to the 157.77 swing high, the 61.8% fib of the London-NY decline, would neutralise the NY leg
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC and MoF intervention headlines could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Downtrend, stretched after NY breakdown · RSI 29 · price 157.116
Lower highs and lower lows from 159.03; NY broke the 157.49 prior low.
USDJPY has printed lower highs all day. London capped at 158.29, then NY broke the 157.49 prior low and ran to a 156.94 session low as the yen firmed on intervention jawboning. RSI(14) near 29 with a small bounce holding the 157.00 round number, while the descending trendline and the breakdown-leg fib sit overhead.
Support: 157.00, 156.936
Resistance: 157.352, 157.493, 157.768
What it said to watch
Break below the 156.94 session low extends the lower-low chain
Retrace into the 157.35 fib 50% of the breakdown leg, then the 157.49 prior low, tests former support as resistance
M15 close above the 157.77 swing high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC print) and Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh FX remarks or rate-check headlines from Japan could accelerate the move
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 159.03; Asian range broken lower.
Lower highs run from Thursday's 159.03 top through the 158.29 London high. Intervention jawboning kept JPY bid, London broke the 157.95 Asian low and the first hour of NY extended to a 156.97 session low with the 157.00 psych under test. RSI(14) sits near 24, and the 157.49 London low lines up with the 38.2% fib as first resistance.
Support: 156.97
Resistance: 157.49, 157.77, 157.95
What it said to watch
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 156.97 session low extends the lower-low chain
Recovery above the 157.77 swing high (61.8% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 157.95 Asian low would neutralise the range-break read
Hammack at 18:00 UTC and any rate-check or intervention headlines
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, stretched after NY flush · RSI 26 · price 157.12
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia; Asian range broken lower.
A lower-high/lower-low sequence since the Asia session took price through the Asian low near 157.95 in London. The NY open then flushed 70 pips to a 156.97 session low as Katayama's intervention warnings kept the yen bid. RSI(14) is near 26 with the first bounce stalling at 157.12, while the 157.50 breakdown level (38.2% of the London-NY leg fib) and the falling trendline cap above.
Support: 156.97
Resistance: 157.50, 157.77
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.50 breakdown level would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Recovery through the 157.77 lower high breaks the falling trendline
Failure to hold the 156.97 session low extends the lower-low chain below 157.00
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Unscheduled MoF rate checks remain live event risk for the yen
LH/LL chain from the 158.29 London high; fresh session low at 157.31 in early NY.
USDJPY has held a lower-high chain from the 158.29 London high through the first hour of NY, printing a fresh session low at 157.31 as Katayama's intervention warnings keep the yen bid. The asian low at 157.95 gave way early London and the 157.50 prior low broke after the 157.77 ny high capped; RSI(14) near 31, heavy but not yet oversold.
Support: 157.311, 157.00
Resistance: 157.50, 157.768, 157.948
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.50 prior low would stall the lower-low sequence
Break below the 157.31 session low exposes the 157.00 round number
Close above the lower-high trendline near the 157.77 ny high breaks the downtrend structure; the 38.2% retracement of the London high fib sits near 157.69
Reclaim of the 157.95 asian low would neutralise the session-long selloff
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF rate-check or intervention headlines remain an unscheduled volatility risk
Yen strength on Katayama's intervention warnings drove the Asia session slide. London then broke the Asian range low near 157.95 and carved lower highs at the 158.29 london high, 158.12 swing high and 157.77 lower high. The first hour of NY probed a fresh 157.37 session low, where demand pulled the bar back to 157.53, with RSI(14) near 33, soft but not oversold.
Support: 157.366, 157.00
Resistance: 157.768, 158.118, 158.292
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.77 lower high breaks the LH/LL sequence and opens a retrace toward the 158.12 swing high
Acceptance below the 157.37 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.00 round number
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC and Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Any MoF rate-check or Katayama headlines could accelerate the move beyond ATR-sized swings
Hold above the 158.29 london high would neutralise the intraday downtrend
LH/LL sequence since Asia open; London leg extending below the Asian low.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since the Asia open. London broke the 157.95 Asian low, and the London leg from the 158.29 London high has since stepped down through 158.12 and the 157.77 lower high as JPY firms on Katayama's intervention warnings. The latest bar swept the 157.49 swing low to a 157.37 session low and closed back near 157.53, with RSI(14) at 34, soft but not oversold, into the NY open.
Support: 157.49, 157.37, 157.00
Resistance: 157.77, 157.95, 158.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.77 lower high and the trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Acceptance below the 157.37 session low extends the sequence toward the 157.00 round number
Reclaim of the 157.95 Asian low (London leg fib 61.8%) would negate the London breakdown
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Unscheduled MoF intervention headlines can gap price regardless of structure
Lower-high chain from 159.03; basing at 157.49–157.54.
Steady lower highs since yesterday's 159.03 NY-session high, with JPY bid on MoF intervention warnings. London extended the Asia breakdown to a 157.49 session low, and price is now basing on a minor higher low at 157.54 as Durable Goods lands at 12:30 UTC.
Support: 157.54, 157.49
Resistance: 157.80, 157.86, 158.12
What it said to watch
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 157.86 lower high and the lower-high trendline breaks the descending chain; 158.12 swing high is next
Fib 38.2 near 157.80 sits on the trendline, the first area to watch for rejection
Failure to hold 157.49 session low extends the London leg lower
Lower highs and lower lows since 159.03; Asian low broken in London.
USD/JPY has made lower highs since the 159.03 top. London broke the 157.95 Asian low and extended to a 157.49 session low as JPY firmed on MoF intervention warnings. Into the London-NY transition price is holding a 157.54 higher low, with RSI(14) near 37 and a falling trendline from the London leg near 157.83 capping it.
Support: 157.54, 157.49
Resistance: 157.87, 157.95, 158.12
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 157.87 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the 157.95 Asian low (near the 61.8% of the London leg fib) and the 158.12 swing high sit above
Failure to hold the 157.54 higher low and the 157.49 session low extends the lower-low sequence
LH/LL chain from 158.29; Asian low broken in London.
USD/JPY extended the Asian slide through London, breaking the Asian low at 157.95. It has printed lower highs and lower lows down to a 157.49 session low as intervention warnings and Iran-diplomacy USD profit-taking lifted JPY. RSI(14) is near 30 with price below both EMAs heading into the London-NY transition, and the latest lower high at 157.86 sits on the trendline.
Support: 157.49, 157.00
Resistance: 157.86, 157.95, 158.12
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 157.86 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline
Failure to hold the 157.49 session low extends the sequence toward the 157.00 psych level
Reclaim of the asian low at 157.95 (61.8% fib zone) and the 158.12 swing high would neutralise the downtrend read
Lower-high/lower-low chain below the broken Asian low, basing near the session low.
After stalling twice near 159.03 yesterday, USD/JPY lost the 157.948 Asian low in London and has printed a lower-high chain from the 158.118 swing high down to a 157.545 session low. The move tracks the JPY bid on Katayama's intervention warnings and Friday USD profit-taking. RSI(14) sits near 31 and price is pinned under the descending trendline as NY approaches.
Support: 157.545, 157.50
Resistance: 157.87, 157.948, 158.118
What it said to watch
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC, in the first hour of NY, could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 157.87 lower high and trendline breaks the lower-high chain; reclaiming the 157.948 Asian low exposes the 158.118 swing high
Failure to hold the 157.545 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.50 round number
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC and any MoF rate-check headlines add two-way event risk
Asian range broken lower in London, LH/LL chain from 158.29.
London broke the Asian low at 157.95. The London drop from 158.29 has since printed successive lower highs down to the 157.59 session low, with RSI(14) near 31 and not yet oversold. JPY strength on Katayama's intervention rhetoric, plus softer US yields, extended the slide from the 159.00 cap.
Support: 157.586, 157.50
Resistance: 157.857, 157.95, 158.118
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.86 lower high (38.2% of the London drop) interrupts the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 157.95 Asian low shifts the read toward a range
Close above the 158.12 swing high and the lower highs trendline breaks the downtrend structure
Break of the 157.59 session low exposes the 157.50 round number
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain below broken Asian low, holding 157.73 swing low.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs since the 159.03 double top in yesterday's NY session. London broke the 157.95 Asian low as Katayama's intervention warning and easing US yields weighed. A sweep to the 157.66 session low drew a bounce, and price is now holding the 157.73 swing low beneath the lower-high trendline, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 157.729, 157.662
Resistance: 157.948, 158.118, 158.292
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.12 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 158.29 swing high into view
Failure to hold the 157.73 swing low exposes the 157.66 session low
Reclaim of the 157.95 Asian low would put price back inside the Asian range
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF rate-check or intervention headlines can override the intraday structure
Asian range broken lower in London; lower-high, lower-low sequence with price pressing the latest swing low.
USDJPY slid through the Asian session as intervention fears bid JPY. London broke the Asian low at 157.95 and printed a 157.66 London low. Bounces stalled at lower highs of 158.29 and 158.12, and mid-London price is back on the 157.73 swing low with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 157.73, 157.66
Resistance: 157.95, 158.12, 158.29
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.95 Asian low would signal the range break is failing
M15 close above the 158.12 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; 158.29 London high is next
Loss of the 157.66 London low extends the lower-low sequence
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Unscheduled MoF intervention or rate-check headlines remain a tail risk for sharp yen moves
10:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 38 · price 157.826
Asian range broken lower; lower highs and lower lows since 158.29.
USDJPY extended its Asia-session slide in London, breaking the asian low at 157.95 and spiking to a 157.662 swing low as intervention jitters kept JPY bid after the stall at 159.00. The rebound capped at 158.118, a lower high at the 38.2% of the Asia-London fib, and price has drifted back toward the 157.79 recent low mid-London, RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 157.79, 157.662
Resistance: 157.95, 158.118, 158.292
What it said to watch
A break of the 157.79 recent low puts the 157.662 swing low back in play
Close back above the 157.95 asian low and the 158.118 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 158.292 london high
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Unscheduled MoF/intervention headlines remain the dominant tail risk for outsized yen spikes
LH/LL chain from 158.85 Asia open; mid-London, holding near lows.
Yen strength on intervention fears drove a steady Asia-session slide from 158.85 to 157.95. London extended it to a 157.66 session low. The rebound stalled at a 158.12 lower high, right on the 38.2% of the Asia drop fib, and the pair now sits at the 157.82 recent low under 158.00 psych and the 158.29 london high, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 157.82, 157.66, 157.50
Resistance: 158.00, 158.12, 158.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.12 lower high, and then the 158.29 london high, breaks the lower-high sequence and the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 157.82 recent low exposes the 157.66 session low, then the 157.50 round number
Reclaiming 158.00 psych would put price back above the fib 38.2% zone
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Unscheduled MoF action or rate-check headlines are the dominant tail risk for a sharp yen move
10:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after London sweep · RSI 44 · price 158.027
Lower highs from 158.85; sweep of Asian low rejected.
Lower highs since the 158.85 Asia open peak. JPY was bid on intervention jawboning and Iran-linked USD profit-taking. London swept the asian low at 157.95 down to the 157.66 sweep low, then snapped back above 158.00, with the bounce high at 158.12 and the 158.29 london high capping below the falling lower-highs line.
Support: 157.95, 157.66
Resistance: 158.12, 158.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.29 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the trendline
Bounce high at 158.12 is first resistance, an area to watch for rejection or break
Failure to hold the asian low at 157.95 puts the 157.66 sweep low back in play
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Unscheduled MoF intervention or rate-check headlines are the dominant tail risk
10:01 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off a sweep low · RSI 37 · price 157.963
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia open; London swept below the Asian low, then rejected.
The slide from Thursday's 159.03 highs ran through Asia and London as intervention jawboning and USD profit-taking on Iran headlines lifted JPY. London broke the 157.95 asian low and swept to the 157.66 session low before a sharp rejection. Price is back at 157.95, near the 50% retrace of the 158.29–157.66 leg, with RSI(14) at 37 and the falling highs line intact.
Support: 157.95, 157.66
Resistance: 158.00, 158.29
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 158.00 round number and a break of the 158.29 london high ends the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.95 asian low reopens the 157.66 session low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and the UoM inflation expectations revision at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Any MoF rate-check or intervention headline is the tail risk for an outsized yen spike
Asian range low broken in London, lower-high/lower-low chain.
The Asia-session slide from 158.85 came as Katayama reaffirmed the joint US-Japan FX principles. London extended it, putting in a lower high at 158.29 before breaking the Asian low at 157.95 to a 157.90 session low. Price sits below the 158.00 round number with RSI(14) near 35, not yet oversold.
Support: 157.90
Resistance: 158.00, 158.29
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.00 round number would turn the Asian-low break into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.90 session low extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 158.29 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence
US Durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; unscheduled intervention headlines remain gap risk
Lower highs since 158.85 Asia high; twin lows at 157.95, bounce capped at 38.2%.
USD/JPY slid through the Asia session from 158.85 and printed twin lows at 157.95 around London open, as Katayama's FX warning and Trump's reported yen concern pulled the pair off 159.00. The London bounce was rejected at 158.29, the 38.2% retrace of the Asia drop, and price sits back under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 158.00, 157.95
Resistance: 158.29, 158.42
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.95 london low extends the lower-low chain; the 158.00 round number is the first test
M15 close above the 158.29 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the 38.2% cap, putting the 158.42 breakdown level in play
Williams (09:15 UTC) and Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) could shift US yields and materially change this read
Tokyo intervention headlines remain gap risk that can override intraday structure
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce faded · RSI 43 · price 158.116
Lower highs from Asia open; 157.95 low tested twice; rebound capped at 38.2%.
USDJPY broke the Asian range base near 158.28 before London open and made a session low at 157.95, which held on a second test at the open. The rebound was rejected at the 158.29 swing high, the 38.2% fib of the Asia drop. Price is back below ema20 as intervention warnings and softer US yields support JPY.
Support: 158.00, 157.95
Resistance: 158.29, 158.45
What it said to watch
Williams at 09:15 UTC could shift yields and this read
Failure at the 158.00 round number and the 157.95 session low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 158.29 swing high and the 38.2% fib reopens the 158.45 breakdown zone
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Tokyo intervention headlines are gap risk for the NY session
Asia lower-high chain from 158.85; tight 157.95–158.17 base in early London.
USD/JPY bled about 90 pips through the Asia session, from 158.85 to a 157.95 session low. The drop came as USD profit-taking on US-Iran talk and Katayama's FX-principles reminder weighed, with a clean chain of lower highs. Early London is basing above 157.95 and the 158.00 round number, with price pressing the descending trendline near 158.15 and RSI(14) around 39.
Support: 158.00, 157.95
Resistance: 158.27, 158.42, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.27 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 158.42 breakdown level, then the 61.8% fib near 158.50
Failure to hold the 157.95 session low and 158.00 round number extends the Asia downtrend
Rejection at the descending trendline keeps the Asia sequence of lower highs intact
Williams at 09:15 UTC and Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; intervention headlines remain a live tail risk
08:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing at lows · RSI 37 · price 158.116
Lower highs from 159.03, basing above 157.95.
Rejection at 159.03 in NY hours was followed by a steady chain of lower highs through the Asia session. The slide reached a 157.95 session low as USD eased on Hormuz-talk headlines and Katayama's FX warnings. Early London is compressing between the 158.02 london low and the 158.16 london high, with RSI(14) near 37 and off oversold.
Support: 158.02, 157.95
Resistance: 158.16, 158.27, 158.36
What it said to watch
Break of the 157.95 session low extends the lower-low sequence below 158.00
Close above the 158.27 swing high breaks the lower-high chain, and the 38.2% fib at 158.36 is the next reference
London low at 158.02 giving way puts the session low straight back in play
Williams at 09:15 UTC and Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could shift USD tone into NY
Any MoF rate-check or intervention headline would override the intraday structure
Lower highs through Asia; 157.95 low retested at London open.
After the 159.03 double top during NY hours, Asia sold off steadily in a chain of lower highs. The drop came as Katayama's FX warnings and Iran-talk USD profit-taking weighed. London open retested the 157.95 session low and held, with a shallow bounce capped at the 158.16 micro high, just above the 158.00 round number.
Support: 158.00, 157.95
Resistance: 158.16, 158.27, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.16 micro high, then the 158.27 lower high, breaks the Asia lower-high chain
A move back into the 158.45 breakdown area also tests the 38.2% fib retrace near 158.36
Failure to hold the 157.95 session low and 158.00 round number extends the downtrend
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durables at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Japan intervention or rate-check headlines remain a gap risk
Lower highs/lower lows since 159.03 double top; Asian range broken lower, basing near 157.95.
The fade from Thursday's NY double top at 159.03 carried through the Asia session. Lower highs formed through the Asian range, and the pre-London push broke the prior low at 158.07. Price is basing at the 157.95 session low into London open, just above the 158.00 psych, with RSI(14) near 35 and Katayama's FX warnings plus Iran-related USD profit-taking behind the slide.
Support: 158.00, 157.95
Resistance: 158.07, 158.27, 158.36
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.95 session low and the 158.00 psych extends the lower-low chain
M15 close back above the 158.07 prior low, then 158.27 lower high, breaks the lower-high sequence; fib 38.2 at 158.36 sits above
Williams at 09:15 UTC, US durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF or intervention headlines can trigger sharp, gap-style yen moves
07:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 35 · price 158.095
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 159.03 double top; holding just above 158.00.
A double top near 159.03 during yesterday's NY session gave way to a steady Asia-session slide, with intervention nerves and USD profit-taking pressing the pair to a 157.95 session low. The lower-high sequence is intact into London open, with the latest lower high at 158.27 and the 158.00 round number just below price. RSI(14) sits near 35 and is not yet at an extreme.
Support: 158.00, 157.948
Resistance: 158.27
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.27 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence; the 158.45 swing high is next
Failure to hold the 158.00 round number and the 157.95 session low extends the lower-low chain
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF/Katayama rate-check or intervention headlines can produce outsized spikes beyond the ~12-pip ATR
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 158.85; sweep of prior low at 157.95 then reclaim.
The Asia session stepped down from the 158.85 high in a clean chain of lower highs as Katayama's intervention-principle remarks and Iran-diplomacy profit-taking weighed. The 157.95 session low briefly undercut yesterday's 158.07 London prior low before closing back above it, while the 158.27 lower high and the Asian trendline sit just overhead with RSI(14) at 34, soft but not oversold.
Support: 158.066, 157.948
Resistance: 158.27
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.27 lower high breaks the Asian trendline and the lower-high chain; the 38.2% fib of the Asian decline sits near 158.29, with the 158.45 range top above
Failure to hold the 158.07 prior low, and a close below the 157.95 session low, extends the lower-low sequence
London open inside the next bar; Williams at 09:15 UTC and Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Escalating MoF wording or rate-check reports remain the unscheduled downside tail
06:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 27 · price 158.018
Double top at 159.03 broken, lower-high/lower-low chain below London low.
The NY-hours double top at 159.03 gave way in the Asia session. A break of the 158.62 neckline and a chain of lower highs took price through yesterday's london low at 158.07 to a session low at 157.98, as intervention jitters after Katayama's joint-action remarks prompted profit-taking. RSI(14) near 27 is stretched but not extreme, with price sitting on the 158.00 round number ahead of London open.
Support: 158.00, 157.98
Resistance: 158.07, 158.27, 158.46
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 158.00 round number and the 157.98 session low extends the lower-low sequence into London open
M15 close back above the london low at 158.07 and the 158.27 lower high would break the lower-highs line
Recovery above the 158.46 prior swing neutralises the Asia sell-off structure
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could shift this read; MoF yen rhetoric is the unscheduled tail
Lower highs from the 159.03 double top; session low 158.11 holding above prior London low.
The Asia session extended the slide from the 159.03 double top in a chain of lower highs, reaching a 158.11 session low just above yesterday's London low at 158.07. Katayama's intervention remarks and Iran-talk profit-taking sit behind the move. RSI(14) is near 39 and the bounce is capped under the falling trendline, with the 38.2% fib at 158.46 aligned with the last lower high.
Support: 158.113, 158.066, 158.00
Resistance: 158.455, 158.605
What it said to watch
Close back above the 158.455 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the Asia downtrend read
Loss of the 158.11 session low exposes the 158.07 london low and the 158.00 round number
Reclaim of 158.60 breakdown level would neutralise the double top
Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Unscheduled MoF intervention headlines remain the dominant tail risk
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 36 · price 158.202
Stair-step lower highs and lows from 159.03; late-Asia stall at 158.11.
USD/JPY has printed a chain of lower highs from the 159.03 high, with the Asia session slide from 158.85 accelerating after Katayama's comments on intervention principles and Iran-driven USD profit-taking. The 05:00 UTC bar broke the 158.28 broken low of the Asian consolidation, and price is now holding just above the 158.11 swing low with RSI(14) near 36. London open is about an hour away.
Support: 158.11, 158.07, 158.00
Resistance: 158.28, 158.46
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.28 broken low returns price to the 158.28–158.46 consolidation
A move through the 158.46 lower high, near the 38.2% of the 159.03-158.11 retrace, breaks the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 158.11 swing low exposes yday low at 158.07 and the 158.00 round number
Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durables at 12:30 UTC could shift the read via yields
Any escalation in MoF wording or rate-check reports could extend the yen move sharply
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia after a double top at 159.03.
Asia session extended the slide from the NY double top at 159.03. A 05:00 UTC drop broke the 158.28–158.50 consolidation, printed a 158.11 session low and kept the lower-highs sequence intact, with RSI(14) near 29. Katayama's reiteration of the joint-intervention principles and USD profit-taking on Iran-diplomacy hopes frame the move; price now sits just above yesterday's 158.07 low.
Support: 158.11, 158.07, 158.00
Resistance: 158.28, 158.50
What it said to watch
Break of the 158.07 yday low exposes the 158.00 round number
Recovery above the 158.28 swing low, back into the Asian consolidation, weakens the breakdown read
158.50 range high sits near the 38.2% fib of the 159.03–158.11 drop; rejection there keeps the lower-highs chain intact
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline (~158.40) ends the sequence
Williams at 09:15 UTC, durables at 12:30 UTC and any MoF intervention headlines could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after range break · RSI 24 · price 158.139
Lower highs through Asia; 158.28–158.50 consolidation broken lower.
USDJPY capped twice at 159.03 during NY hours (double top) and has slid through the Asia session on Katayama's joint-intervention remarks and US-Iran profit-taking. The 05:00 UTC bar broke the Asian consolidation between the asian low at 158.28 and the asian high at 158.50. Price now sits on yesterday's london low at 158.07 with RSI(14) near 24.
Support: 158.066, 158.00
Resistance: 158.281, 158.497
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 158.28 would mark the break as a false break
Loss of the london low at 158.07 exposes the 158.00 round number
Asia lower highs trendline near 158.40 and the asian high at 158.50 cap rebounds; clearing both negates the lower-high sequence
Williams at 09:15 UTC and Durables at 12:30 UTC; unscheduled MoF/intervention headlines remain the sharp tail
Lower highs off 159.03 double top; tight range 158.28–158.50.
A double top at 159.03 during yesterday's NY session gave way to a lower-high sequence. The Asia session broke down through 158.61 to a 158.28 session low as Katayama's intervention-principles remarks and US-Iran hopes prompted USD profit-taking. Price is now compressing between the session low and a 158.50 range top late in Asia, with RSI(14) near 34 and not stretched.
Support: 158.28, 158.07
Resistance: 158.50, 158.61, 158.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.50 range top, then the 158.61 breakdown level, would break the lower-high chain and bring the fib retrace zone at 158.57–158.66 into play
Failure to hold the 158.28 session low opens yesterday's 158.07 swing low
Recovery through the 158.85 asian high would neutralise the double top read
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Any MoF rate-check or escalated verbal intervention headline is an unscheduled tail risk for sharp downside extension
Double top at 159.03, Asia breakdown, tight 158.28–158.50 range.
USD/JPY double-topped at 159.03 during NY hours. Asia then broke the 158.60 breakdown shelf on Katayama's intervention-principles remarks and Trump's yen concerns, printing a 158.28 session low. Late in the Asia session, price is compressing in a 158.28–158.50 range below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 35 and ATR around 10 pips.
Support: 158.28, 158.07
Resistance: 158.50, 158.60, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.50 range top brings the 158.57 fib 38.2% and 158.60 breakdown level into play
Failure to hold the 158.28 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 158.07 swing low
London open and Williams at 09:15 UTC could break the Asian range
Fresh MoF or intervention headlines could produce an outsized move relative to the 10-pip ATR
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Tokyo break · RSI 35 · price 158.386
Double top at 159.03 resolved lower; Asian range broken, lower-high chain below 158.50.
Twin NY-session highs at 159.03 formed a double top after Katayama's intervention reminder. The Asian range broke lower in Tokyo hours, and a 70-pip slide printed a 158.28 session low. Price is now grinding under a lower high at 158.50 and below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 35 and not yet stretched.
Support: 158.28, 158.07, 158.00
Resistance: 158.50, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.50 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 158.60 shelf and the fib 38.2% near 158.57 sit just above
Loss of the 158.28 session low exposes the 158.07 swing low and the 158.00 round number
London open and Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could shift the read; UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC are the likeliest USD mover
Any escalation in MoF/Katayama yen language would reinforce the double top structure
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 28 · price 158.334
Broke below Thursday's 158.60–159.03 range; lower-high chain into session low.
After a double top at 159.03 and Katayama's intervention reminder, Asia session broke the 158.61 prior low and stepped down to a 158.28 session low, with each bounce capped by a lower high near 158.50. RSI(14) sits near 28, soft but not extreme, and price is below both EMAs heading into London open.
Support: 158.28, 158.07
Resistance: 158.50, 158.61, 159.03
What it said to watch
Recovery above the 158.50 lower high (38.2% of the Asian decline) would stall the lower-high chain
A reclaim of the 158.61 prior low puts price back inside Thursday's range
Failure to hold the 158.28 session low exposes the 158.07 swing low from Thursday's London dip
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift USD tone; intervention headlines remain the tail risk near the 159.03 double top
Double top at 159.03 broken; lower highs through Asia, tight 158.30–158.50 range.
The 159.03 double top gave way in the Asia session. The 02:00 UTC breakdown through 158.61 printed a 28-pip bar as profit-taking on US-Iran diplomacy hopes and Katayama's weak-yen remarks hit the pair. Price is now compressing between the asia low at 158.31 and the range top near 158.50, with RSI(14) near 27, soft but not at extremes.
Support: 158.306, 158.066
Resistance: 158.497, 158.61, 158.846
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.30 asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 158.07 swing low
Recovery above the 158.61 breakdown level, near the 38.2% fib of the double top drop, negates the breakdown read
Only a return to the 158.85 asia high would neutralise the Asia lower-high sequence
London open in ~3h and Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could break the 158.30–158.50 range
Unscheduled MoF intervention or yen rhetoric remains a sharp downside tail risk
04:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after Asia drop · RSI 31 · price 158.41
Lower highs from 159.03 double top; tight base 158.33–158.50.
Thursday's double top at 159.03 capped the NY session. Late Asia broke the 158.61 prior low and flushed to a 158.33 Asia low on the 02:00 UTC drop, tied to profit-taking on US-Iran hopes and Katayama flagging Trump's weak-yen concern. Price is now compressing below the 158.50 range top, with RSI(14) near 31 and under both EMAs, about three hours before London open.
Support: 158.33, 158.07
Resistance: 158.50, 158.61, 159.03
What it said to watch
Close back above the 158.50 range top, then the 158.61 prior low, would undo the Asia breakdown
Loss of the 158.33 Asia low exposes Thursday's 158.07 London low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could reset the intraday read
Any MoF rate-check or intervention headline could extend the yen move sharply
Lower-highs line from the 159.03 double top stays intact while under ~158.73
Lower highs off 159.03 double top; Asia range break, now tight consolidation 158.33–158.50.
Asia session broke below Thursday's 158.72–158.94 NY range and dropped to the 158.33 Asia low. The move followed Katayama's note on Trump's weak-yen concern and US-Iran diplomacy hopes, extending the lower-highs trendline off the 159.03 double top. Price is now consolidating between 158.33 and 158.50, with RSI(14) near 32 and the range top capping bounces so far.
Support: 158.33, 158.07
Resistance: 158.50, 158.61, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.61 breakdown shelf (near the 38.2% fib) negates the range break read
Failure to hold the 158.33 Asia low exposes the London low at 158.07
A break of the lower-highs trendline would signal the pullback from the double top has run its course
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, and any MoF/Katayama intervention headlines, could materially shift this read; Durable Goods follows at 12:30 UTC
Lower highs from the 159.03 double top; tight consolidation 158.33–158.50 after Asia breakdown.
Yesterday's NY double top at 159.03 gave way to a mid-Asia breakdown through 158.61 to an Asia low at 158.33. The drop came as Katayama flagged Trump's concern over the weak yen and US-Iran diplomacy hopes weighed on the dollar. Price is now compressing below the 158.50 range top, which sits at the 23.6% fib of the 159.03–158.33 leg, with RSI(14) near 27 and the descending trendline from the double top capping rebounds.
Support: 158.33, 158.07
Resistance: 158.50, 158.61, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.50 range top opens a retest of the 158.61 breakdown level (38.2% fib)
Failure to hold the 158.33 Asia low exposes the 158.07 swing low from Thursday's London session
MoF/Katayama intervention rhetoric remains the main tail risk for a fast yen spike
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could shift USD pricing before the NY data slate
03:16 UTC
Downtrend from 159.03 double top, stalling at Asia low · RSI 34 · price 158.461
Lower highs through Asia; NY-session floor at 158.60 broken, basing 158.33–158.46.
The NY-session double top at 159.03 gave way to Asia lower highs. The 02:00 UTC bar broke the 158.60 prior lows to print a 158.33 Asia low, as US-Iran diplomacy hopes and Katayama's weak-yen remarks lifted the yen. Price is now basing just under the 158.50 half figure, with RSI(14) near 34 and the Asia lower highs line intact.
Support: 158.33, 158.07
Resistance: 158.50, 158.60, 159.03
What it said to watch
A M15 close back above 158.60 prior lows, also the 38.2% of the 159.03-158.33 fib, would negate the break
Loss of the 158.33 asia low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 158.07 swing low
A hold under the 158.50 half figure keeps the Asia lower highs line in control
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durables at 12:30 UTC could shift this read; unscheduled MoF comment is the tail risk
Lower highs through Asia after a double top; NY low broken.
Two NY-session rejections near 159.03 formed a double top. The Asia session has since sold off from the 158.85 Asia high, with lower highs on the descending line. The 02:00 UTC bar cut through the ny low at 158.60 to a session low of 158.33, as Katayama kept verbal intervention warnings alive. Price is stalling around 158.40 with RSI(14) near 24 and ATR about 9 pips.
Support: 158.33, 158.07
Resistance: 158.60, 158.85, 159.03
What it said to watch
Recovery and hold back above 158.60 (the broken ny low, near the 50% fib) negates the range break
Failure to hold the 158.33 session low exposes the 158.07 london low
Break of the descending line from the 158.85 asia high would end the lower-high sequence
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Double top at 159.03 broken below 158.60, lower highs into a fresh lower low.
The 159.03 double top from NY hours gave way in the Asia session. A roughly 28-pip drop at 02:00 UTC, after Katayama's Friday remarks flagged Trump's concern over the weak yen, cut through the 158.60 broken low and the 61.8% fib of the 158.07–159.03 swing. Price sits near the 158.33 session low with RSI(14) around 22, and the lower-highs trendline from 159.03 is capping bounces.
Support: 158.33, 158.07
Resistance: 158.60, 158.85, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.60 broken low negates the double top break
Failure to hold the 158.33 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 158.07 swing low
A break of the lower-highs trendline and the 158.85 asia high would restore the prior range read
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and any escalation in MoF rhetoric could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Short-term downtrend after the rejection at 159.03 · RSI 28 · price 158.451
Double top at 159.03 and a neckline break at 158.62, with lower highs since.
Two rejections at the 159.03 double top in NY hours gave way in the Asia session. The 02:00 UTC bar flushed 28 pips through the 158.62 neckline to a 158.33 session low, and RSI(14) sits near 28. The break came with no Japan data out, as USD/JPY hovers just below the 159–160 zone where MoF intervention warnings are concentrated. Price is now well under the 158.85 asian high.
Support: 158.33, 158.07
Resistance: 158.62, 158.85, 159.03
What it said to watch
A close back above the 158.62 neckline negates the break and points to a false break.
Failure to hold the 158.33 session low exposes Thursday's 158.07 london low.
The lower-high trendline from 159.03 caps rebounds unless the 158.85 asian high is reclaimed.
Any escalation in MoF wording on rate checks could extend the move sharply.
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could shift the read in the London and NY sessions.
02:16 UTC
Pullback from double top, lower highs in Asia · RSI 30 · price 158.563
Double top at 159.03 with Asia breaking the 158.60 neckline.
Thursday's Fed-driven rally stalled with a double top at 159.03 during NY hours, and Friday's Asia session has slipped from the 158.85 Asian high through the 158.60 neckline. Price is sitting on the 38.2% fib of the 157.80–159.03 leg, and RSI(14) is near 30 as lower highs hold under the descending trendline.
Support: 158.48, 158.41, 158.07
Resistance: 158.62, 158.85, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.62 neckline negates the double top break
Sustained trade below 158.56 exposes the 158.48 prior pivot, then the 50% fib at 158.41
Loss of 158.41 puts the 158.07 swing low from Thursday's London dip in view
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and any MoF/Katayama escalation could materially shift this read
Double top at 159.03, lower-high sequence into Tokyo morning.
Thursday's Fed-driven rally stalled at a double top near 159.03, and a falling trendline of lower highs has carried price down to a 158.61 Asia low in early Tokyo trade, RSI(14) near 37. Price holds below both EMAs, with the 38.2% fib of the 157.80–159.03 move at 158.56 just underneath and the 158.85 Asia high capping.
Support: 158.61, 158.56
Resistance: 158.85, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.61 Asia low and the 38.2% fib at 158.56 extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 158.85 Asia high breaks the falling trendline and neutralises the pullback read
Retest of the 159.03 double top brings MoF intervention rhetoric toward 160 into play
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Intraday pullback within a broader up-leg · RSI 40 · price 158.698
Double top at 159.03, lower highs into early Asia session.
The London-NY run from 157.80 stalled in a double top at 159.03, with the 159.00 psych line capping twice as Tokyo intervention risk offsets hawkish Fed pricing. The early Asia session has faded from the 158.85 Asia high to a 158.61 session low, just above yesterday's 158.60 swing low, and sits between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the up-leg. RSI(14) is near 40 and ATR is about 6 pips.
Support: 158.61, 158.48
Resistance: 158.85, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.61 session low exposes the 38.2% fib at 158.56 and the 158.48 prior high
Recovery above the 158.85 Asia high and the lower-highs line neutralises the pullback read
Close above the 159.03 double top reopens the 160 area, where MoF intervention headlines are the dominant tail risk
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could shift the USD leg of this read
01:31 UTC
Range after rally, momentum fading · RSI 31 · price 158.638
Double top at 159.03, testing 158.60 range floor in early Asia.
The hawkish-Fed rally from 158.07 was capped twice at 159.03 during NY hours, leaving a double top above the 158.60 range floor. Early Asia has slipped from the 158.85 Asian high to retest that floor, which coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the rally fib, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 158.61, 158.50
Resistance: 158.85, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.60 range floor completes the double top and exposes 158.50 psych
Recovery above the 158.85 Asian high reopens the 159.03 double top
MoF/Katayama rhetoric near 159–160 is the dominant headline risk; Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could shift this read
Double top at 159.03, lower highs through Asia, pressing neckline.
The NY session formed a double top at 159.03 after the 159.00 touch, and the Asia session has printed lower highs from the 158.85 Asia high. Price is now pressing the 158.61 neckline, level with the 38.2% fib of the London-low rally. RSI(14) is near 30 as the Fed-driven USD bid meets Tokyo's intervention warnings near 159–160.
Support: 158.61, 158.50, 158.07
Resistance: 158.72, 158.85, 159.03
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 158.61 neckline confirms the double top and exposes the 158.50 round number near the 50% fib
A recovery above the 158.72 breakdown level and the 158.85 Asia high negates the lower-highs sequence
A break of the 158.07 london low would retrace the whole rally that started at London open
MoF/Katayama rhetoric escalation near 159–160 is the dominant unscheduled risk; Williams speaks at 09:15 UTC
Double top at 159.03 with price pressing the 158.60 neckline.
USD/JPY capped twice at 159.03 through NY hours, forming a double top, as Tokyo intervention risk near 159–160 offset hawkish Fed-hike pricing. Lower highs through the Asia session have dragged price to 158.64, into the NY low at 158.605 and the 38.2% level of the London-NY rally, with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 158.605, 158.484, 158.066
Resistance: 158.745, 158.846, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.605 ny low confirms the double top and opens the 158.48 asia high, with the 158.066 london low the base of the London-NY rally
Reclaim of the 158.745 lower high and 158.846 session high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC or any escalation in MoF/Katayama rhetoric near 159 could materially shift this read
Double top at 159.03, lower highs into early Asia.
The London-led climb from 158.07, backed by hawkish Fedspeak, was rejected twice at 159.03 during NY hours, forming a double top at the 159.00 intervention-watch zone. Early Asia is sliding along a line of lower highs below the 158.94 NY range top to a 158.72 Asia low, near the 23.6% fib of the Asia-to-high move, with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 158.72, 158.61, 158.56
Resistance: 158.94, 159.03
What it said to watch
Break below the 158.61 swing low completes the double top neckline and exposes the 38.2% fib at 158.56
M15 close above the 158.94 NY range top invalidates the lower-highs sequence
MoF/Katayama rhetoric or rate-check headlines near 159–160 could trigger a sharp yen spike
Williams (09:15 UTC) comments on October hike pricing could shift the read
Fed-hike bets carried the pair from the 157.80 Asia dip to a double top at 159.03 during NY hours. Supply has capped the psych 159.00 area since, with lower highs forming. Early Asia is holding a tight 158.73–158.85 range near the 23.6% fib of the rally, and ATR is compressed to about 6 pips.
Support: 158.73, 158.61
Resistance: 158.85, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.85 asian high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the drift-lower read
Failure to hold the 158.73 session low exposes the 158.61 swing low and the 38.2% fib near 158.56
Break of the 159.03 double top puts the 160 intervention zone in focus; MoF rhetoric or a rate check near 159 could trigger a sharp reversal
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could materially shift this read
The rally from the 157.80 Asia low, driven by hawkish Fedspeak and US data beats, met rejection twice at 159.03 during NY hours, leaving a double top just above 159.00. Early Asia trade is compressed between the 158.73 range low and the 158.94 range top, with RSI(14) near 44 and price flat around the EMAs.
Support: 158.73, 158.62
Resistance: 158.94, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.03 double top invalidates the rejection read; MoF intervention risk rises into 159–160
Failure to hold the 158.73 range low exposes the 158.62 ny low and the 38.2% fib near 158.56
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durables at 12:30 UTC could break the range
158.62–159.03 range since NY, lower highs overnight.
Hawkish Fed talk and the claims beat drove a rally from the 157.80 Asia low through the Asian range, but 159.03 was rejected twice during NY hours, forming a double top. Price has since compressed between the 158.73 late low and the 158.94 evening high into the Asia session, RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 6 pips, still above the 158.62 neckline.
Support: 158.73, 158.62
Resistance: 158.94, 159.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.62 neckline confirms the double top and opens the 50% fib of the rally near 158.41
M15 close above the 159.03 double top breaks the range, with MoF intervention risk rising toward 160
Loss of the 158.73 late low puts the neckline in play
Evening high at 158.94 is the first cap inside the range
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durables at 12:30 UTC could shift this read