The Tuesday–Thursday rally from 156.82 stalled twice at 159.03 on Thursday. Friday's reversal built through Asia and London, then accelerated into the early NY session on Katayama/Trump yen jawboning, taking out the 157.80 thursday low and the 61.8% retracement of the rally. Price is now consolidating between the 156.94 friday low and the 157.47 bounce high, below EMA(20) at 157.66 and near the 78.6% level, with RSI(14) around 31 and the 156.82 tuesday low the next structural reference.
Support: 156.94, 156.82
Resistance: 157.47, 157.66, 157.80
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above 157.66 (ema20 / 61.8%) and the lower-highs trendline would ease the downtrend read
Reclaiming the 157.80 thursday low negates the double top breakdown
Repeated caps at the 157.47 bounce high keep the post-drop consolidation intact
Failure to hold the 156.94 friday low exposes the 156.82 tuesday low and a near-full retrace of the rally
BoJ minutes (Sun 23:50 UTC) and ongoing MoF intervention rhetoric could shift the read at the weekly open
Double top at 159.03 broken, lower highs through Friday.
USD/JPY reversed from the twin 159.03 highs set Thursday. Friday's slide started in the Asia session and accelerated into the NY open on FM Katayama's intervention warnings, reaching a 156.94 fri low about 210 pips off the top. Since then price has compressed in a roughly 30-pip band under the 157.47 bounce high, with RSI(14) oversold near 24 and both EMAs overhead; the ema20 near 157.70 lines up with the 38.2% of the Friday drop fib and the lower-highs line. Tuesday's London-open tue low at 156.82 is the next support below.
Support: 156.94, 156.82
Resistance: 157.47, 157.70, 157.80
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 156.82 tue low marks a fresh window low and extends the Friday drop
Recovery through the 157.47 bounce high and the ema20 / 38.2% zone near 157.70 would test the lower-highs line; the 157.80 thu low sits just above
Weekend intervention headline risk and BoJ Minutes (Sep 27 23:50 UTC) could gap the open away from the fri low
Next week's ADP and PCE (Wed 12:15/12:30 UTC) and the Tankan (Sep 30 23:50 UTC) can reshape the post-reversal structure
USD/JPY was rejected just above 159.00 on Thursday. Friday's selling then ran from the Asia session through London and accelerated into the NY open to the 156.94 fri low, driven by Katayama's intervention warnings and reports of US concern over yen weakness. That move has unwound nearly all of the Wed-Thu rally from the 156.82 week low. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 28, and has compressed into a 156.94-157.47 range. The range top is the rebound high, just above the 78.6% fib at 157.29, while the 61.8% fib at 157.66 lines up with Friday's London low.
Support: 156.94, 156.82
Resistance: 157.29, 157.47, 157.66
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 156.94 fri low and 156.82 week low would erase the week's gains and extend the lower-high sequence
Recovery through the 157.47 rebound high and the 61.8% fib at 157.66, where the Friday lower-highs trendline also sits, would shift the read toward a corrective bounce
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC and any MoF or rate-check headlines could materially move this read; BoJ minutes land Sunday
The run from Tuesday's London-open week low at 156.82 to Thursday's 159.03 high has been almost fully unwound. Friday's slide started in the Asia session and accelerated into the first hour of NY as Katayama's intervention warnings and talk of US-Japan coordination hit the pair. Price has since compressed in a 156.94–157.45 band during NY hours, sitting just above the Friday low and about 81% back into the week's rally. It is trading below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with the broken higher-low line and the 157.60 broken supp now overhead.
Support: 156.94, 156.82
Resistance: 157.60, 158.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 156.82 week low turns the Friday reversal into a full retrace of the week's rally
Reclaim of 157.60 broken supp and the broken higher-low line would ease the reversal read; the 158.00 round number sits above as the next cap
Hold of the 156.94 friday low alongside the week low would leave a second test of the 156.8–156.9 area in place
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC and any fresh Japanese intervention or rate-check headline could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 159.03 peak, now probing the week's lows near 156.82–156.94.
The NY-session rejection just above 159.00 on Thursday gave way to a steady run of lower highs through Asia and London today. The slide accelerated into the first hour of NY, reaching a 156.94 friday low as Katayama's intervention warnings turned the tape despite firm US durables and sentiment data. Price trades below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 28, the bounce has stalled at the 157.47 bounce high just under the 23.6% retrace, and the tuesday low at 156.82 is the last structural floor from this week's advance.
Support: 156.94, 156.82
Resistance: 157.47, 157.74, 158.29
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 38.2% fib at 157.74 would be the first break in the lower-highs sequence
Reclaim of the 158.29 lower high invalidates the downtrend read from 159.03
Failure to hold the 156.94 friday low and the 156.82 tuesday low confirms a lower-low below this week's structure
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC and any weekend MoF intervention or rate-check headlines could materially shift this read
Friday reversal from 159.03 high, lower highs, back in Tuesday range.
USD/JPY was rejected at Thursday's 159.03 high and has shed about 210 pips since the Asia open. FM Katayama's intervention warnings and Iran-related USD profit-taking drove the move, and the heaviest leg came in the London-NY transition. That selloff broke the thu low at 157.80 and the 157.50 broken low from earlier in London. Price now sits well below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 23. The fri low at 156.94 is just above the tue low at 156.82, the floor of Tuesday's range.
Support: 156.94, 156.82
Resistance: 157.50, 157.80, 157.98
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 156.82 tue low extends the lower-low sequence beyond this week's range floor
A recovery through the 157.50 broken low brings the thu low at 157.80 and the fib 38.2–50% zone (157.74–157.98) into focus for rejection or break
A reclaim of the fib 50% at 157.98 would neutralise Friday's lower-high structure
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC and weekend Japanese intervention headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Thursday's 159.03 top; 157.80 swing low broken.
USD/JPY was rejected twice at the 159.03 week high in Thursday's NY session. It has since unwound the whole Thursday rally, with Friday's slide starting in Asia and accelerating through London as Japanese intervention jawboning lifted the yen. Price has broken the 157.80 prior low and sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of the 156.82–159.03 week rally, well below EMA(20). RSI(14) is oversold near 24 and the 158.29 lower high from London caps the sequence.
Support: 157.37, 157.29, 156.82
Resistance: 157.80, 158.29, 159.03
What it said to watch
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 157.80 prior low would mark the break as failed
Failure to hold the 157.37 session low and the 157.29 fib 78.6 exposes the 156.82 week low
Reclaiming the 158.29 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence; intervention or rate-check headlines could extend the yen move sharply
13:02 UTC
Downtrend from 159.03, oversold · RSI 21 · price 157.515
Lower highs since Thursday's week high; Wed–Thu rally unwound.
The week's dominant leg ran from Tuesday's London-session flush to the 156.82 week low up to a 159.03 week high on Thursday, driven by strong US PMIs and hawkish Fed pricing. It stalled with a rejection just shy of the 159.00 zone where intervention risk is flagged. Friday has printed steady lower highs from Asia through London. The drop accelerated into the London-NY transition as FM Katayama's warnings and Iran-diplomacy USD profit-taking hit. Price has broken back below Thursday's Asia-session thu low (157.84) and the 61.8% retracement at 157.67. It now sits under EMA(20) near 158.20 with RSI(14) near 21, testing the 157.37 session low.
Support: 157.37, 157.22, 156.82
Resistance: 157.84, 158.20, 159.03
What it said to watch
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (1-yr f/c 4.6%) could materially shift this read; Hammack speaks at 18:00 UTC
Failure to hold the 157.37 session low exposes the 78.6% retracement near 157.29 and the Monday low (mon low) at 157.22
H1 close back above the thu low at 157.84 and the Friday lower highs trendline would challenge the downtrend read
Recovery of EMA(20) around 158.20 would neutralise the oversold unwind; the 156.82 week low marks the full retracement of the rally
Unscheduled MoF intervention remains a gap risk for JPY
Lower high at 158.29 and lower low below Thursday's 157.80 swing low.
USD/JPY climbed from Tuesday's 156.82 week low to a 159.03 week high into Thursday's NY session. That high drew a rejection, and Friday's Asia-to-London selling erased most of the leg as Katayama's intervention warnings and Iran-diplomacy USD profit-taking lifted JPY. Price has broken the Thursday low at 157.80 and sits below the 61.8% retracement of the Tue-Thu rally near 157.67 and both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 24 and oversold; the session low at 157.49 is the first shelf, then the Monday low at 157.22.
Support: 157.49, 157.22, 156.82
Resistance: 157.80, 158.29, 159.03
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 157.80 thu low would turn Friday's break into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.49 session low exposes the 157.22 monday low, the 78.6% fib near 157.29 and the 156.82 week low
Lower-high trendline from the 159.03 week high runs through the 158.29 lower high; a close above 158.29 negates the lower-high sequence
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC, UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read, as could any MoF rate-check headlines
Higher-low sequence broken; lower highs since Thursday's peak.
The advance from Tuesday's 156.82 London-session low ran on strong US PMIs and stalled in a double top at 159.03 on Thursday. Intervention fears and Katayama's reminder that the joint FX principles remain in effect then drove yen buying through Friday's Asia and London sessions, breaking the rising trend from the week low. The drop tagged the friday low at 157.66, the 61.8% fib of the week's impulse, where demand stepped in; price now sits below the ema20 near 158.36 under a line of lower highs, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s.
Support: 157.93, 157.66, 156.82
Resistance: 158.36, 158.48, 159.03
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 50% fib at 157.93 exposes the friday low at 157.66; losing that 61.8% level reopens the week low at 156.82
A recovery above the ema20 (158.36), the prior pivot at 158.48 and the lower highs line would revive the uptrend read toward the double top at 159.03
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A MoF rate check or intervention headline remains the dominant tail risk for a sharp yen spike through the week low
Tue-Thu higher-low sequence broken Friday; pullback into 50-61.8% of the rally.
USDJPY climbed from Tuesday's London-open week low at 156.82 to the 159.03 week high on Thursday, and Wednesday's US PMI beat carried it through 158.00 during NY hours. Friday's Asia session reversed that leg on MoF intervention warnings and USD profit-taking tied to the Iran talks. Price broke the Tuesday rising line and slipped below EMA(20) near 158.37, then a London wick to the 157.66 Friday low tagged the 61.8% of the Tue-Thu rally before closing back near the fib 50% at 157.93. RSI(14) sits near 37, and a lower high at 158.29 is capping the bounce.
Support: 157.93, 157.66, 156.82
Resistance: 158.29, 158.37, 159.03
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 158.29 lower high and ema20 at 158.37 would restore the Tue-Thu rally structure
Failure to hold the 157.66 Friday low breaks the 61.8% and exposes the 156.82 week low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and the UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A retest of the 159.03 week high brings intervention risk back into play near 159-160
Higher lows since Tuesday; rising trendline broken in Friday Asia.
USDJPY climbed from Tuesday's 156.82 week low to 159.03 on Thursday. Wednesday's NY-session leg came on the US PMI beat, and two failed tests of 159.00 then formed a tight double top as Tokyo intervention warnings and softer oil and yields weighed. Friday's Asia session erased about 90 pips and broke the rising trendline off Tuesday's low, dropping price below EMA(20) at 158.41 with RSI(14) near 32. The low stalled at 157.95, just above the 50% fib of the Tue–Thu rally.
Support: 157.93, 157.80, 156.82
Resistance: 158.29, 158.41, 159.03
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 50% fib at 157.93 exposes the Thursday low at 157.80 and the 61.8% level at 157.67
A recovery through the London high at 158.29 and EMA(20) at 158.41 would put price back at the 200-day SMA zone at 158.47-158.50
A return to the week high at 159.03 re-enters intervention-alarm territory; MoF rate checks or joint action are gap risk
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Uptrend, correcting from 159.03 week high · RSI 44 · price 158.126
Higher lows from Tuesday broken; pullback into 50% zone.
The week's dominant leg ran from Tuesday's 156.82 week low after the London-open flush, through the Wednesday NY session on the US PMI beats, to a 159.03 week high in NY on Thursday as hawkish Fedspeak and higher yields lifted the dollar. Twin rejections at 159.03 formed a small double top. Asia-session selling on Friday, as Katayama's FX warnings and reported Trump concern over yen weakness hit the tape, took price back below the 158.40 Wed high, both EMAs and the rising trendline from Tuesday's low. The Friday low at 157.95 sits on the 50% fib of the 156.82–159.03 leg, just above the 157.80 Thu low, with RSI(14) back in the mid-40s from near 70 on Thursday.
Support: 157.95, 157.80, 156.82
Resistance: 158.40, 158.85, 159.03
What it said to watch
H1 close below 157.80 (thu low) breaks the higher-low sequence and opens the 156.82 week low
Recovery above 158.40 (wed high) and then the 158.85 ny close would put price back inside Thursday's range
Williams 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A return toward the 159.03 week high brings MoF intervention headline risk into play near 159–160
07:02 UTC
Uptrend, correcting from 159.03 · RSI 41 · price 158.079
Higher lows intact, pullback into 38.2-50% fib.
USD/JPY ran from the 156.82 week low, set at Tuesday's London open, to a 159.03 week high during NY hours Thursday, a leg built on the US PMI beats and the surge in Treasury yields. Intervention nerves after Katayama's comments drove a 108-pip Asia-session fade to a 157.95 session low. That took price below EMA(20) at 158.47, which sits near the 200-day SMA, and into the 38.2-50% fib zone of the weekly advance. The higher-lows trendline from Tuesday is being tested, and Thursday's low at 157.80 is the last higher low in the sequence.
Support: 157.95, 157.80, 156.82
Resistance: 158.47, 159.03
What it said to watch
An hourly close below the 157.80 thu low breaks the higher-low sequence and the higher-lows trendline, exposing the 61.8% fib near 157.67
A recovery back above ema20 at 158.47 would restore the uptrend read; the 159.03 week high sits inside the 159-160 MoF intervention zone
Loss of the 156.82 week low would unwind the entire weekly advance
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods at 12:30 and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 could materially shift this read, as could any MoF rate-check headlines
06:03 UTC
Uptrend, correcting from 159.03 · RSI 34 · price 158.22
Double top at 159.03, rising trendline broken, testing 38.2% fib.
USD/JPY climbed from 157.06 on Monday to a 159.03 week high in Thursday's NY session. Wednesday's PMI beats and Thursday's yield surge drove the main legs, and the rising trendline off Tuesday's 156.82 London-open low held every dip until Friday. Two failed pushes at 159.03 formed a double top, and a roughly 90-pip Asia session slide after Katayama's intervention-principles remarks broke the 158.62 neckline, ema20 (158.54) and the rising trendline. Price now sits on the 38.2% fib of the week's impulse at 158.19, just above Thursday's 158.07 swing low, with RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 158.19, 158.07, 157.80
Resistance: 158.54, 158.62, 159.03
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 158.07 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 50% retracement at 157.93, then the 157.80 thu asia low
Reclaim of ema20 at 158.54 and the 158.62 neckline would negate the double top read and put the 159.03 week high back in focus
Williams (09:15 UTC) and UoM 1-yr inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could shift US yields and this read materially
Escalating MoF/Katayama rhetoric near 159–160 remains an unscheduled tail that could extend the pullback
05:02 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 41 · price 158.415
Higher lows since Tuesday; Asia pullback testing trendline and 50% fib.
USD/JPY has built higher lows since Tuesday's London-open flush to 156.82. Wednesday's NY-hours leg came on the US PMI beat, and Thursday's London-NY push printed the 159.03 week high. The Friday Asia session has unwound roughly half of Thursday's impulse on intervention-talk profit-taking, putting price below the ema20 and on the 50% fib, with the asia low at 158.28 sitting near the 61.8% as RSI(14) cools to ~41 against the rising trendline.
Support: 158.28, 158.07, 157.80
Resistance: 158.58, 159.03, 160.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 158.28 asia low (61.8% fib) breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 158.07 higher low
Loss of 158.07 opens Thursday's 157.80 swing low and would end the higher-low sequence
Recovery above the ema20 near 158.58 puts the 159.03 week high back in play, with 160.00 psych as the flagged intervention line
Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift yields and this read
MoF/Katayama rhetoric on any approach to 159-160 is an unscheduled tail that could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Tuesday; pullback between 23.6% and 38.2% of week leg.
Higher lows since Tuesday's 156.82 London-session low, with Wednesday's NY PMI beats and Thursday's hawkish-Fed and yield bid lifting the pair to a 159.03 week high, where it was capped twice in rejection near the 159.00 intervention zone. Friday's Asia session pulled back to the 158.31 Asian low on US-Iran diplomacy hopes and Katayama's weak-yen remarks. That leaves price below EMA(20) at 158.59 and the 200-dma near 158.50, sitting on EMA(50) with RSI(14) at 44 and the higher-low line near 158.27 just underneath.
Support: 158.31, 158.19, 157.80
Resistance: 158.50, 158.59, 159.03
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 158.31 Asian low and the higher-low line near 158.27 exposes the 38.2% fib at 158.19
Recovery back above the 200-dma at 158.50 and EMA(20) at 158.59 restores the uptrend sequence toward the 159.03 week high
Failure to hold the 157.80 Thu low breaks the higher-low structure from Tuesday
Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC, US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Escalating MoF language on any push back toward the 159.03 week high raises intervention risk
03:02 UTC
Uptrend, pullback from week high · RSI 46 · price 158.462
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday; pullback into the Wed high zone.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows each day since Tuesday's London-session drop to 156.82. Wednesday's US PMI beat and Thursday's clean US data sweep drove NY-hours legs up to a week high of 159.03, where two attempts were capped. Friday's Asia session pulled back after Katayama's comments, slipping below EMA(20) near 158.63 and retesting the Wed high at 158.40 (50% of Thursday's impulse), with the Asia low at 158.33 sitting just above EMA(50) and RSI(14) cooling to about 46 from the 60s.
Support: 158.40, 158.33, 157.80
Resistance: 158.63, 158.85, 159.03
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 158.33 asia low and the higher-lows trendline exposes the 61.8% of Thursday's impulse near 158.27, then the thu low at 157.80
A recovery back above EMA(20) and the 158.85 ny close reopens the 159.03 week high, where supply has capped price twice
US Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift October hike pricing and this read
Any MoF escalation to rate-check language near 159–160 is the main tail risk for a sharp, gap-style drop
Higher lows since Tuesday, twin highs near 159.03.
USDJPY has printed higher lows all week, from Tuesday's London-open drop to 156.82 through Thursday's Asia-session swing low at 157.80. Thursday's leg then ran through the London-NY transition to a week high at 159.03, helped by hawkish Fed talk and a run of US data beats. Twin highs near 159.03 have capped price since, and early Asia Friday has slipped back below EMA(20) at 158.66 with RSI(14) easing to the low 40s. Price sits on the 38.2% retracement of Thursday's leg, with the prior high at 158.40 and the rising higher-lows line converging just below.
Support: 158.40, 157.80
Resistance: 158.66, 159.03, 160.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 158.40 prior high and the higher-lows line breaks the week's rising structure, exposing the 157.80 swing low
Recovery above EMA(20) and a close through the 159.03 week high resumes the uptrend toward 160.00 psych
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Official yen-buying remains the dominant tail risk as price approaches 160.00 psych
Higher lows since Tuesday; tight 158.60–159.03 band below week high.
Higher lows from Tuesday's 156.82 London-open flush and Thursday's Asia dip to the 157.80 thu low have carried the pair to a 159.03 week high. The Tuesday-to-Thursday impulse came in two legs: Wednesday's NY session on the US PMI beats, then Thursday's London-NY run as jobless claims beat and Fed talk leaned hawkish. Since Thursday's NY session price has compressed in a 158.60–159.03 band, holding the NY low but slipping just under EMA(20), with RSI(14) easing to the mid-40s from the 70s and EMA(50) near 158.40 lining up with Wednesday's high.
Support: 158.60, 158.40, 157.80
Resistance: 159.03
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 158.60 NY low exposes the 158.40 wed high and the higher-low trendline near 158.35
Loss of the 157.80 thu low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 38.2% of the Tue-Thu impulse (158.19) behind price
H1 close above the 159.03 week high opens the path toward the 160 psych line, the zone flagged for possible MoF intervention
Any MoF/Katayama escalation or rate check near 159–160 could trigger a sharp yen spike through this structure
Fri 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could shift October Fed-hike pricing and this read
Higher lows since Tuesday, tight range under week high.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows all week, from Tuesday's 156.82 flush to Thursday's Asia-session dip at the 157.80 thu low. The main legs came into the NY open Wednesday on the US PMI beats, then through London-NY Thursday as hawkish Fed talk and soft Japan PMIs outweighed the JGB-yield spike. Price has since compressed between the 158.61 range low and the 159.03 week high, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooled to the mid-50s, while the wed high at 158.40 sits on the 50% fib of Thursday's leg.
Support: 158.61, 158.40, 157.80
Resistance: 159.03, 160.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 158.61 range low exposes the wed high at 158.40, near the 50% fib and the 158.47 200-day SMA
Sustained break of the 159.03 week high brings the 160.00 psych level into view, where MoF intervention risk rises sharply
Failure to hold the 157.80 thu low breaks the higher-low sequence and the rising support line
US durables (12:30 UTC), UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams/Hammack could materially shift this read