Higher lows since Tuesday; tight 158.60–159.03 band after Thursday's impulse.
The week opened near 156.99. Tuesday's London-open drop to 156.82 was fully reversed, and Wednesday's strong US PMIs took price through 158.00 during NY hours. Thursday's Asia dip to the thu low at 157.80, on the JGB yield jump and Katayama comments, set another higher low along the rising lows line. Fed-hike talk and firmer US yields then drove a London-NY impulse to the 159.03 week high. That high has capped two tests since, and price is holding just above EMA(20) at 158.69 with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s. The wed high at 158.40 lines up with the 50% retracement of the thu impulse.
Support: 158.69, 158.40, 157.80
Resistance: 159.03, 160.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 159.03 week high opens the path toward the 160.00 psych level, where MoF intervention risk is concentrated
Failure to hold ema20 and the 158.60 area exposes the wed high at 158.40 (50% of the thu impulse)
A break below the rising lows line and the 157.80 thu low would undo the higher-low sequence
Fri US data (durables 12:30 UTC, UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC) and Fed speakers Williams and Hammack could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Tuesday; tight range under 159.03.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows since Tuesday's London-open flush to 156.82. Wednesday's NY session cleared Tuesday's 157.77 high after blowout US PMIs, and Thursday's Asia-session dip to the 157.80 asia low on record JGB yields and Katayama's comments reversed as Fed-hike talk lifted yields, driving a 159.03 week high in NY hours. Since then price has compressed into a 158.62–159.03 range above EMA(20), with RSI(14) easing into the low 60s rather than pushing to fresh extremes.
Support: 158.62, 158.19, 157.80
Resistance: 159.03, 160.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 158.62 range low opens the fib 38.2 near 158.19 and the rising higher-lows trendline
A close above the 159.03 week high extends the move toward 160.00 psych, where MoF intervention risk is concentrated
Loss of the 157.80 asia low breaks the higher-lows sequence from Tuesday
Friday US durables (12:30 UTC), UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams and Hammack could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows each day this week; tight NY range capped at the week high.
USD/JPY has printed a higher high and a higher low every day since Monday's 156.81 open. Wednesday's PMI beats during NY hours and Thursday's London session carried the rally to a 159.03 week high. The Asia-session dip to the 157.80 Asia low on the JGB-yield and Katayama headlines was fully reclaimed on hawkish Fed talk. NY has since held a range from the 158.62 session low to the week high, above EMA(20), with RSI(14) easing from ~70 into the low 60s.
Support: 158.62, 158.27, 157.80
Resistance: 159.03, 160.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 158.62 session low exposes the 61.8% fib of Thursday's impulse at 158.27, near the higher-lows trendline
Close above the 159.03 week high resumes the higher-high sequence toward the 160.00 psych level, where MoF intervention risk is concentrated
Failure to hold the 157.80 Asia low breaks the week's higher-low structure
Fri 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations, plus Williams and Hammack, could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's 156.82 low.
USDJPY has climbed from Monday's 156.81 open in a steady run of higher highs and higher lows. Tuesday's London-open flush to 156.82 was fully retraced, and Wednesday's US PMI beats lifted price through 158.00 during NY hours. Thursday's Asia dip to the 157.80 thu low on the JGB yield jump reversed as hawkish Fed talk pushed US yields higher, taking price to a 159.03 week high. Price is now holding a tight 158.60–159.03 range in the NY session, with the ema20 rising just below and RSI(14) at 65, short of overbought.
Support: 158.62, 158.40, 157.80
Resistance: 159.03, 160.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 159.03 week high extends the higher-high sequence toward 160.00 psych, where MoF intervention risk is concentrated
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 158.40 wed high exposes the higher lows trendline and the 38.2% fib near 158.19
A break below the 157.80 thu low ends the higher-low structure
Fri: Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC, US durable goods 12:30 UTC and Hammack 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; any pushback on an October hike is the main downside risk to USD
19:01 UTC
Uptrend, stretched near week high · RSI 70 · price 158.956
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday; breakout above Wednesday's high holding.
USDJPY is about 215 pips above Monday's 156.81 weekly open on a rising-lows sequence of 156.58, 156.82 and 157.80. Thursday's Asia low at 157.80 came as JGB yields jumped. The London session then drove the breakout through Wednesday's 158.40 prior high, and NY pushed on to a 159.03 week high after the US claims beat. The pullback to the 158.62 NY low held above EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 70 and the 38.2% of the Thursday rally fib sitting just below.
Support: 158.62, 158.40, 157.80
Resistance: 159.03, 160.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.40 prior high (near the 50% of the Thursday rally fib) would return price to Wednesday's range
Failure to hold the 157.80 Asia low breaks the rising-lows trendline
H1 acceptance above the 159.03 week high leaves the 160.00 psych level, where MoF intervention risk is concentrated, as the next reference
Fri US durables, UoM inflation expectations and Williams/Hammack Fedspeak could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended near week high · RSI 66 · price 158.799
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday; trading above the 158.40–158.48 breakout area.
USD/JPY has built higher highs and higher lows since Monday's 156.81 open. Wednesday's NY-session PMI beat and Thursday's London-NY push off the 157.80 asia low carried price through the wed high and the 200-day area near 158.48, up to a 159.03 week high. Price holds above EMA(20) near 158.54 with RSI(14) near 66, the NY session low at 158.61 has held so far, and the 23.6% fib of the 156.82–159.03 leg sits near 158.51, well above the weekly trendline from Tuesday's low.
Support: 158.605, 158.398, 157.795
Resistance: 159.032, 160.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.61 session low exposes the 158.40 wed high and the 23.6% fib near 158.51
Loss of the 157.80 asia low breaks the weekly higher-low sequence and puts the weekly trendline (~158.15) in play
Rejection at the 159.03 week high versus a close above it; the 160.00 psych level is the flagged MoF intervention line
Escalated MoF/Katayama warnings near 159–160 could trigger a sharp yen spike against this structure
Friday's Williams (09:15 UTC) and Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) could shift US yields and materially change this read
17:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing week high · RSI 66 · price 158.799
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's 156.82 low.
From the 156.81 weekly open, the pair has built higher lows off Tuesday's London dip to 156.82. The Tuesday-to-Thursday impulse gained pace after Wednesday's US PMI beats lifted it through 158. Thursday's Asia yen bid on the JGB yield spike and Katayama's comments held the 157.80 asia low and faded, and London cleared the 158.40 wed high. NY printed a 159.03 week high before a pullback to the 158.62 ny low, with price holding above EMA(20) and RSI(14) in the mid-60s.
Support: 158.62, 158.40, 157.80
Resistance: 159.03, 160.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.40 wed high would turn Thursday's breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.80 asia low breaks the higher-lows trendline and the week's uptrend sequence
A close above the 159.03 week high brings the 160.00 psych level, where intervention risk sits, into view
Loss of the 158.62 ny low exposes the 158.40 retest zone
Fri durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Uptrend, higher highs and higher lows all week · RSI 69 · price 158.925
Stepwise higher lows from 156.82; fresh week high at 159.03.
Up roughly 210 pips from Monday's 156.81 weekly open. Tuesday's London-open flush to 156.82 was fully retraced, and the dominant legs came in NY hours Wednesday after the blowout US PMIs and in London today. Today's Asian dip to the 157.80 swing low faded on soft Japan PMIs, and price then cleared Wednesday's 158.40 prior high before a 159.03 week high in NY after the claims beat. Price sits above an ema20 near 158.52 that has not been retested since the London breakout, with RSI(14) near 69, elevated but not overbought, and ATR(14) around 25 pips.
Support: 158.52, 158.40, 157.80
Resistance: 159.03, 160.00
What it said to watch
An hourly close back below the 158.40 prior high would turn today's breakout into a false break and put the ema20 pullback in question
Failure to hold the 157.80 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence traced by the trendline and the Tue–Thu impulse
Acceptance above the 159.03 week high brings the 160.00 psych level into view, the flagged zone for MoF intervention risk
Friday's Durable Goods and UoM inflation expectations, plus Fed's Williams and Hammack, could materially shift this read
15:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing week high · RSI 69 · price 158.882
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday; 158.40 breakout holding.
USD/JPY has built higher highs and higher lows since Monday's 156.81 open. Wednesday's PMI beats in the NY session drove the break above 158.00, and today's firm US claims and new home sales extended it to a week high at 158.90. Today's Asia-session dip to 157.80 on Katayama's intervention remarks was absorbed by London. Price now sits roughly 40 pips above the EMA(20) at 158.47, with RSI(14) near 69, just short of overbought.
Support: 158.47, 158.40, 157.80
Resistance: 158.90, 159.00
What it said to watch
Holding the 158.40 Wed high and the 158.47 ema20 keeps the breakout intact; an H1 close back below reopens the 157.80 Asia low
H1 close above the 159.00 round number extends the week-high sequence; a stall at 158.90 with RSI failing to confirm would flag bearish divergence
A break of the higher-low trendline and the 157.80 Asia low (near the 50% fib of the Tue low–week high leg) ends this week's higher-low sequence
MoF intervention rhetoric in the 158.50–160 zone is unscheduled risk; Friday's Durable Goods and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at week high · RSI 64 · price 158.727
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday, compact range under 158.885.
From the 156.81 weekly open, the pair has printed higher lows. Tuesday's London-open drop to 156.82 was absorbed, and the beat on the S&P PMIs lifted it through 158.00 into Wednesday's NY session. Thursday's Asia low at 157.80 came on the brief JGB-yield yen bid and held above the rising trendline. London then cleared the 158.49 breakout lvl to a week high of 158.885, the top of the 156.82 to 158.885 impulse. Since the firm claims print, price has stalled in a narrow band above EMA(20). RSI(14) is near 64 and ATR is compressing to about 25 pips, while Japanese intervention language keeps supply capping the highs.
Support: 158.49, 158.07, 157.80
Resistance: 158.885, 159.00, 160.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 158.49 breakout lvl would turn the London push into a failed extension.
Failure to hold the 158.07 higher low, and then the 157.80 asia low near the 50% retracement of the week's impulse, would break the higher-lows sequence.
A close above the 158.885 week high opens the 159.00 round number, with 160.00 psych the level most sensitive to MoF intervention.
Trump-Xi summit headlines today, or any escalation in Japanese FX rhetoric, could materially shift this read.
Friday's Durable Goods and UoM inflation expectations are the next scheduled test for the USD leg.
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, easing off the week high · RSI 62 · price 158.665
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday; London extension now pausing above the 158.49 breakout level.
USDJPY has printed higher highs and higher lows since the 156.81 weekly open. Tuesday's London-open flush to 156.82 was bought, and Wednesday's PMI beats lifted the pair through 158.00 into the NY session. This morning London cleared the 158.49 breakout level to a 158.885 week high, after Thursday's Asia low at 157.80 held near EMA(50) despite record JGB yields; price is now easing back with EMA(20) at 158.37 just beneath and RSI(14) cooling to 62 from the high-60s.
Support: 158.49, 158.37, 157.80
Resistance: 158.885, 159.00, 160.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 158.49 breakout level and EMA(20) at 158.37 would signal the London extension is failing
A break of the higher-lows trendline and Thursday's Asia low at 157.80 would put the 38.2% retracement of the week impulse near 158.00 in play
Acceptance above the 158.885 week high exposes the 159.00 round number; the 160.00 psych level is where MoF intervention risk concentrates
Fed's Paulson (13:00 UTC) and New Home Sales (14:00 UTC) could shift this read during NY hours
Any MoF or Katayama intervention escalation would materially change the structure
12:01 UTC
Uptrend, higher highs and higher lows all week · RSI 66 · price 158.835
Stair-step higher lows from 156.58; Wed range top broken in London.
Since Monday's Asia session low at 156.58 near the weekly open, USD/JPY has printed successive higher lows. The NY-hours break through 157.90 on Wednesday came on the blowout US PMIs and yields pushing past 5%. The Asia low at 157.80 marked the yen's bounce on Katayama's remarks and was bought back quickly, and London extended through the 158.40 prior high to a 158.885 week high. Price holds above a rising EMA(20) and the rising trendline, with RSI(14) near 66 and not yet overbought.
Support: 158.40, 158.07, 157.80
Resistance: 158.885, 159.00, 160.00
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read within the hour
H1 close back below the 158.40 prior high puts price back inside Wednesday's range
Break of the rising trendline and the 158.07 swing low would mark the first lower-low since Tuesday
Advance past the week high toward the 159.00 round number and 160.00 psych runs into elevated MoF intervention risk
11:01 UTC
Uptrend, extending to week high · RSI 64 · price 158.735
Higher lows since Monday, London breakout above 158.40.
USDJPY has climbed from Monday's 156.58 low. The dominant leg came in Wednesday's NY session on the US PMI beat and Treasury yields pushing through 5%. After an Asia-session dip to the 157.80 asia low as Tokyo reopened, London today cleared Wednesday's 158.40 prior high and printed a 158.80 week high, with price holding above EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 64, short of overbought.
Support: 158.40, 157.95, 157.80
Resistance: 158.80, 159.00, 160.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.40 prior high would turn today's breakout into a false break
A move through the higher-low trendline and the 157.80 asia low ends the higher-low sequence; the fib 38.2 at 157.95 sits just above
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC plus Fed's Hammack and Paulson could materially shift this read
The 159.00 round number and the 160.00 psych level are where MoF intervention risk intensifies
10:02 UTC
Uptrend, extending to fresh week high · RSI 64 · price 158.77
Higher lows each day since Monday; London break above 158.40 prior high.
USD/JPY has carved higher lows every day since the 156.58 Monday low. Wednesday's blowout US PMIs lifted the pair through 158.00, and London today cleared the 158.40 prior high to a fresh week high at 158.78 after Thursday's Asia low at 157.80 held the 50% retracement of the week's impulse, even with Katayama's intervention reminder in the background. Price sits above a rising EMA(20) near 158.24, which caught the early-London pullback, with RSI(14) in the mid-60s and no divergence against the new high.
Support: 158.40, 158.24, 157.80
Resistance: 158.78, 159.00, 160.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.40 prior high would turn the London breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.80 Asia low breaks the higher-lows trendline and the week's sequence
A loss of EMA(20) near 158.24 on a closing basis would break the pullback rhythm seen this week
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC plus Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Stretch toward the 159.00 round number and 160.00 raises intervention risk; firmer MoF language could produce a sharp reversal
09:02 UTC
Uptrend, fresh week high in London · RSI 65 · price 158.567
Higher lows since Tuesday, breakout above 158.40.
From the 156.81 weekly open, Tuesday's London-open drop to 156.82 was bought back, and Wednesday's NY-session leg on the US PMI beat carried price to the 158.40 prior high. The Thursday low at 157.80 came in the Asia session after Katayama's intervention reminder. That dip held near the 38.2–50% fib of the Tuesday-to-week-high impulse and above the higher-low trendline, and London has since pushed to a 158.59 week high above EMA20 (~158.17) with RSI(14) at 65.
Support: 158.40, 158.17, 157.80
Resistance: 158.59, 159.00, 160.00
What it said to watch
H1 closes back below the 158.40 prior high would turn this breakout into a false break and put the ema20 near 158.17 in focus
Loss of the 157.80 thu low breaks the higher-low trendline and the fib 50% zone, ending the higher-low sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC plus Hammack/Paulson from 12:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Any sharper MoF/Katayama rhetoric as price approaches the 159.00 round number and the 160.00 intervention zone could trigger abrupt downside bars
08:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at week high · RSI 53 · price 158.212
Higher lows from Tuesday, rejection at 158.48 cap.
USDJPY has printed higher lows since Monday's Asia low near 156.58 and the 156.82 Tuesday low. The dominant leg came during NY hours Wednesday after the US PMI beats and weak 5y auction lifted yields, and a second push early Thursday set a week high at 158.48 against the 200-day SMA. Supply capped that test into the London open, near the Wed high cluster at 158.40, and price has slipped back to EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 53. The thu low at 157.80 sits on the 38.2% retrace of the Tuesday-low impulse, with the rising higher-lows trendline just beneath near 157.94.
Support: 157.80, 157.65
Resistance: 158.40, 158.48
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.48 week high / 200-DMA zone breaks the two-test cap
Loss of ema20 and the higher-lows trendline puts the 157.80 thu low back in play
Break below 157.80 thu low opens the 50% fib at 157.65 and weakens the higher-low sequence
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
MoF/Katayama intervention rhetoric near 158.50 risks a sharp gap-style drop through structure
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday; testing week high.
USD/JPY has built higher highs and higher lows since Monday's 156.575 low. The dominant leg came in Wednesday's NY session, when the US PMI beats lifted Fed hike odds and cleared 158.00. Thursday's Asian dip on Katayama's FX remarks found demand at the 157.795 asian low, near the 38.2% of the 156.82–158.48 impulse, and the pair has since pushed back above EMA(20) at ~158.17 to a new week high at 158.484. That marginal new high above Wednesday's 158.398 prior high came with RSI(14) near 60 versus the low-70s at Wednesday's peak, a bearish divergence.
Support: 158.398, 158.17, 157.795
Resistance: 158.484, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.398 prior high would turn the break into a false break
Loss of the 157.795 asian low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low sequence
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and jobless claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 201K) could shift hike pricing and this read
MoF escalation or rate checks on a push beyond the week high toward the 159.00 round number carries intervention risk
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday; Asia dip held at the 38.2% fib.
Since Monday's 156.81 weekly open, USDJPY has printed higher lows. Demand returned at Tuesday's London-open swing low of 156.82, and Wednesday's hot US PMI beat drove the NY-session breakout to a 158.40 week high. Thursday's Asia pullback on the JGB-yield jump and Katayama's intervention remarks stalled at the 157.80 asia low, the 38.2% fib of the 156.82–158.40 leg, and price has since reclaimed EMA(20) near 158.20. RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-50s without a divergence against the new high.
Support: 157.80, 157.61, 156.82
Resistance: 158.40
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.80 asia low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the fib 50% at 157.61
A close above the 158.40 week high extends the higher-high sequence, with MoF intervention rhetoric likely to intensify on any approach toward 160
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
Any sudden yen spike like Tuesday's London-open drop would put the 156.82 swing low back in focus
05:02 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 47 · price 157.851
Higher lows since Monday; Asia pullback testing 38.2% at 157.80.
USDJPY has stepped up through a series of higher lows since the week opened near 156.81. Tuesday's London-hours dip to 156.82 marked the last deep low, and the US PMI beats in the first hour of NY on Wednesday lifted price through 158.00 to a 158.40 week high. Tokyo's reopening brought an 8bp jump in 10y JGB yields to 3.055% and Katayama's restated intervention principles, which knocked price back to an asian low at 157.80. That level is the 38.2% retracement of the 156.82–158.40 leg and sits at EMA(50). Price now trades below EMA(20) near 158.00, the asian high at 158.10 capped the bounce, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 47.
Support: 157.80, 157.61, 156.82
Resistance: 158.10, 158.40
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.80 asian low breaks the rising trendline from Tuesday's low and exposes the 50% fib at 157.61
Recovery above the 158.10 asian high and EMA(20) puts the 158.40 week high back in focus
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K), then Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read
Any escalation in MoF/Katayama intervention rhetoric could force an abrupt unwind toward the tuesday low at 156.82, near the week open
04:02 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after Asia pullback · RSI 48 · price 158.044
Higher lows since Monday; pullback retesting the 158.00 breakout area.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows since Monday's 156.81 open. Tuesday's London-open drop to the 156.82 tuesday low was fully reversed, and the US PMI beat in Wednesday's NY session drove the break above 158.00 to a 158.40 week high. The Asia pullback on the JGB 10y surge and Katayama's intervention reminder met demand at the 157.80 asia low, the 38.2% retracement of the Tuesday-Wednesday advance. Price is now pinned at EMA(20) near 158.05, with RSI(14) back to 48 after holding in the 60s through the breakout.
Support: 157.795, 157.233, 156.82
Resistance: 158.05, 158.398
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.80 asia low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 157.23 swing low
H1 close above the 158.40 week high re-tests the 158.44–159.53 zone, where MoF intervention rhetoric has escalated before
Failure to reclaim EMA(20) at 158.05 keeps the retest of the breakout area in play
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K), then Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read
Any escalation in MoF/Katayama language risks a sharp yen spike toward the tuesday low region
03:02 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 41 · price 157.873
Higher lows since Monday; Asia pullback testing 38.2% of Tue–Wed impulse.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows from Monday's 156.58 week low. The NY-session breakout after Wednesday's hot US PMIs cleared Friday's 158.05 high and set a week high at 158.40. Asia session selling on the 10y JGB jump to 3.055% and Katayama's intervention reminder has since pulled price below EMA20, into the 38.2% fib of the Tuesday–Wednesday impulse at the 157.80 Asia low, with RSI(14) easing to about 41.
Support: 157.795, 157.61, 156.82
Resistance: 158.07, 158.398
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.61 fib 50% weakens the higher-low sequence and exposes the 156.82 Tue low
Recovery back above EMA20 near 158.07 reopens the week high at 158.40, the zone flagged for MoF intervention rhetoric
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then US Initial Jobless Claims (f/c 201K) at 12:30 UTC with Hammack and Paulson could materially shift this read
Any escalation in MoF or Katayama FX language would pressure the higher-lows trendline
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 47 · price 157.869
Higher lows since Monday; retracing the Tue–Wed leg below EMA(20).
The week opened near 156.81 and has printed higher lows at Monday's 156.58 and Tuesday's 156.82. Tuesday's yen spike on rate-check and Hormuz headlines was fully unwound, and Wednesday's hot US PMIs carried the pair through Friday's 158.05 prior high into the NY session. That run peaked at a 158.40 week high. Tokyo's return from Silver Week this Asia session has pushed price back below EMA(20) (~158.03) to the 157.83 asian low, just above the 38.2% of the Tue–Wed leg, with RSI(14) easing to ~47 and EMA(50) near 157.75 underneath.
Support: 157.83, 157.61, 156.82
Resistance: 158.05, 158.40
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 158.05 prior high and EMA(20) restores the breakout read, with the 158.40 week high the next cap
Failure to hold the 157.83 asian low exposes the fib 50% at 157.61 and the higher lows trendline beneath
A break below the 156.82 tue low would end this week's higher-low sequence
Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
MoF verbal escalation as Tokyo liquidity returns carries sharp yen-spike risk
Higher lows since Monday; post-PMI breakout consolidating 158.10–158.40.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows since Monday's 156.58 Asia-session low. Tuesday's London-open slide stopped at 156.82 and was retraced. Wednesday's NY-session PMI beat then drove price through Friday's 158.05 prior high to a 158.40 week high. Since then price has held a tight 158.10–158.40 band above a rising EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 63. The higher lows line and the 38.2% fib of the Tuesday low–week high impulse converge near 157.80.
Support: 158.05, 157.80, 157.51
Resistance: 158.40, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.05 prior high would turn the PMI breakout into a false break
Loss of 157.80 (38.2% fib / higher lows line) breaks this week's rising structure, exposing the wed low at 157.51
Sustained trade above the 158.40 week high opens the path to the 159.00 round number
Tokyo reopens today: MoF/BoJ intervention rhetoric or a rate check could trigger a sharp yen spike
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening near week high · RSI 66 · price 158.281
Higher lows since Monday, post-breakout consolidation 158.10–158.40.
USDJPY has printed higher lows since Monday's Asia-session low at 156.58 near the weekly open. Tuesday's London-open flush to 156.82 was fully retraced during the thin Silver Week grind, and Wednesday's NY-session PMI beat drove price through Friday's prior high at 158.05 to a week high at 158.40. Since then price has held a tight band above EMA(20) at 158.10, with Tuesday's high at 157.77 as the deeper pullback reference and RSI(14) easing from near 70 into the mid-60s.
Support: 158.10, 158.05, 157.77
Resistance: 158.40, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 158.05 prior high and the higher-lows trendline near 158.15 would undercut the breakout, exposing Tuesday's high at 157.77 and the 38.2% fib of the weekly impulse at 157.70
A clean break of the 158.40 week high, flagged as the intervention tripwire, opens the path to the 159.00 round number
MoF jawboning or rate-check headlines as Tokyo reopens Thursday could trigger a sharp, multi-big-figure reversal
Thursday 12:30 UTC jobless claims (f/c 201K) and Williams/Hammack/Paulson remarks could materially shift this read