21:03 UTC
Downtrend since July, sharp counter-rally underway · RSI 56 · price 158.25
LH/LL from the Jul 23 peak; rebound testing 50% retrace.
Since the 163.99 peak on Jul 23, D1 has printed lower highs and lower lows. Two abrupt breaks, in late July and early September, set the 152.89 Sep 8 low. The past two weeks have retraced about half of that July–September decline, driven by Fed October-hike repricing and 10y/30y yields above 5%. Price is now pressing the 50% fib at 158.44, where the falling trendline off the July and Sep 2 highs converges with the ~158.47 200-day SMA flagged in the digest. Price sits just above a flattening ema50 near 158.10, with RSI around 56, well short of overbought.
Support: 158.10, 155.33, 152.89
Resistance: 158.44, 159.75, 160.39
What it said to watch
- A daily close above the 50% fib at 158.44 and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 61.8% fib at 159.75 next
- The sep 2 high at 160.39 sits inside the 160 intervention zone; MoF warnings or rate checks there could reverse the rebound abruptly
- Failure to hold the ema50 near 158.10, then the 155.33 higher low, would put the sep 8 low at 152.89 back in play
- Fri US durables, UoM inflation expectations and Williams/Hammack remarks could shift the Fed-hike pricing behind this leg
- Q3 Tankan on Sep 30 is the main scheduled JPY-side risk to the read