Lower highs since Wed. Post-breakdown range 156.31–157.08 after the 156.08 low.
USDJPY gave up the Tue–Wed range in Thursday's Asia-into-London session and extended to a week low at 156.08 after Japan's hotter CPI, consistent with the safe-haven yen bid in the digest. Since then the pair has compressed between the 156.31 swing low and the 157.08 Friday high, with Friday's US flash PMI beat lifting it off lows in NY hours. Sunday's gap up to the weekly open faded back to EMA(20) near 156.85, and price is still capped below the 38.2% fib of the 158.34–156.08 leg, with RSI(14) flat near 52 and EMA(50) overhead around 157.10.
Support: 156.85, 156.31, 156.08
Resistance: 157.08, 157.36, 157.84
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.08 fri high and the lower-highs line would break the sequence, with the 157.36 lower high next
Failure to hold the 156.31 swing low reopens the 156.08 week low
157.84 range floor from Tue–Wed is the breakdown level any recovery would meet
US durables Tue 12:30 UTC, FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC, Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and BoJ Fri 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Impulse lower then converging lower highs and higher lows.
USDJPY held a 157.84–158.39 band through Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday's selloff during the Asia session into the London open broke that range floor, and the move extended to a 156.08 week low after the hot Japan CPI print, as yen safe-haven demand built. Since then price has compressed between lower highs from 157.36 and a Friday higher low at 156.31; the Friday PMI beat lifted it back toward the range top near 157.16. The Sunday reopen is holding above EMA(20) but below EMA(50), with RSI(14) back near 52 at the 38.2% retracement of the 158.34–156.08 leg.
Support: 156.31, 156.08
Resistance: 157.16, 157.36, 157.84
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.16 range top and the lower-highs line would open the 157.36 lower high and the 157.57 cap
Failure to hold the 156.31 higher low exposes the 156.08 week low; a close below extends the downtrend
Recovery to 157.84 (old range floor) would mark a retest of Thursday's breakdown point
Tue US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) ahead of Wed FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
BoJ decision Fri 03:00 UTC, preceded by Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC
Lower highs and higher lows coiling under 157.16 after Thursday's breakdown.
The Tuesday–Wednesday 157.8–158.6 range gave way in Thursday's Asia session, with the breakdown from 157.59 extending through London on risk-off and softer US yields. Friday's hot Japan CPI print sent the pair to a week low of 156.08 in early Asia, but a sharp rebound followed and the NY-open dip held a higher low at 156.31. Since then a pennant has formed, with lower highs from the 157.36 Thursday NY high to 157.16 and 157.08. Price sits just under a flattening EMA(20) near 156.84, and RSI(14) is neutral at ~45.
Support: 156.31, 156.08, 156.00
Resistance: 157.16, 157.36, 157.59
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.16 lower high breaks the pennant and puts the 157.36 thu high and 157.59 breakdown shelf back in play
Failure to hold the 156.31 higher low exposes the 156.08 week low and the 156.00 psych level
A close below 156.08 resumes the downtrend toward 155.50
Tue Oct 27 US Durable Goods / Consumer Confidence (12:30–14:00 UTC) can test the pennant boundaries
FOMC Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC; a no-guidance hold could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI and BoJ (Thu 23:30 / Fri 03:00 UTC) are the next JPY catalysts