21:02 UTC
Downtrend after range break, rebounds fading · RSI 37 · price 156.825
Lower highs since breakdown, compressing above week low.
USDJPY spent two weeks in a 157.55–158.95 band before breaking through the range floor midweek on safe-haven yen demand, printing a week low at 156.08. Since then price has compressed into a pennant of lower highs from 157.36 to the 157.16 lower high and a higher low at 156.31. Rebounds have stalled near the 38.2% retracement of the breakdown leg around 157.04, with EMA20 now crossed below EMA50. ATR(14) expanded to roughly 50 pips on the drop, but recent bars are narrowing ahead of the FOMC and BoJ.
Support: 156.31, 156.08
Resistance: 157.16, 157.57, 158.95
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 157.16 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 157.57 range floor in play as resistance
- Reclaim of 157.57 returns price inside the prior range, with the 158.95 range high as the upper edge
- Failure under the 156.31 higher low and the 156.08 week low resolves the pennant lower and exposes 155.50/155.00
- Fed decision Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a no-guidance hold leaves crowded USD longs exposed
- Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision Fri 03:00 UTC are a second volatility window for the pennant