USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Monday, 26 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:03 UTC
Downtrend from range break, corrective rebound · RSI 54 · price 157.514
Broke below 157.50 range floor; higher low at 156.65 now retesting it.
USDJPY held a 157.50–158.95 range for most of the window, with the range top at 158.95. Last week's risk-off yen bid broke the range floor and drove a sharp leg to the 156.08 swing low. The rebound has printed a higher low at 156.65 and is now retesting the old range floor near 157.60, where the EMA50 and the 61.8% retracement of the 158.60–156.08 drop converge. EMA20 sits back under EMA50 after the breakdown cross, and ATR(14) near 46 pips is easing from the selloff peak.
Support: 157.28, 156.65, 156.08
Resistance: 157.60, 158.34, 158.95
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 157.60 range floor and EMA50 reopens the 158.34 lower high and puts the range top at 158.95 back in view
Loss of the ema20 at 157.28 and then the 156.65 higher low exposes the 156.08 swing low again
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a patient, noncommittal statement leaves the 157.60 cap more exposed to rejection
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and BoJ Fri 03:00 UTC are the main risks for a break of the 156.65–157.60 band
Range break lower, higher lows off 156.08, retesting old floor.
USDJPY spent two weeks in a 157.55–158.60 range with lower highs at 158.95 and 158.60, then broke down on 22 Oct as risk-off and softer UST yields drove a slide to the 156.08 swing low, pulling EMA20 below EMA50. The USD rebound into the FOMC has since built recovery lows at 156.31 and 156.65 and cleared the 157.20 prior high. Price is now retesting the old range floor near 157.62, where EMA50 and the 61.8% fib of the 158.60–156.08 drop converge. ATR(14) near 48 pips has eased from the breakdown expansion but remains above the range-phase regime.
Support: 157.20, 156.65, 156.08
Resistance: 157.62, 158.60
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 157.62 range floor reclaims the broken range and opens 158.20–158.60 range top
Rejection at the range floor followed by a break of the 156.65 higher low restores the lower-high sequence toward the 156.08 swing low
Failure to hold the 157.20 prior high puts the recovery lows trendline in focus
FOMC Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC: a walk-back of priced December hike odds could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI Thu 29 Oct 23:30 UTC and BoJ Fri 30 Oct 03:00 UTC: a hawkish December signal would put the 156.08 swing low back in play
Broke below the 157.55 range floor; higher lows at 156.08 and 156.65, now retesting the broken floor from below.
The two-week 157.55–158.95 range gave way after the prior high near 158.60, as risk-off and lower UST yields drove haven yen demand to a swing low at 156.08. Since then the pair has printed a higher low at 156.65 and is pushing back into the broken range floor, where the 61.8% retrace and EMA50 (~157.61) converge. EMA20 has crossed below EMA50 and ATR has expanded to about 50 pips from the low-30s seen during the range.
Support: 156.65, 156.08
Resistance: 157.55, 158.60, 158.95
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the range floor at 157.55–157.65 (61.8% and EMA50) would negate the breakdown read and reopen the prior high at 158.60
Rejection at the range floor followed by a break of the 156.65 higher low would point back to the 156.08 swing low
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and BoJ decision Fri 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a reclaim of the range high at 158.95 sits well beyond current structure
09:01 UTC
Downtrend after range break, rebound stalling · RSI 42 · price 157.098
Lower highs below the broken 157.60-158.60 range, basing above 156.08.
The multi-week range between the 157.60 range floor and the 158.60 range top, already capped by lower highs off 158.95, gave way on Oct 20. Risk-off and sliding UST yields drove yen buying to a 5-week low at 156.08, with ATR(14) expanding to around 52 pips. Since then price has consolidated between the 156.31 swing low and the 157.35 break cap. EMA20 has crossed below EMA50, and the rebound is stalling near the 38.2% retracement of the 158.60-156.08 drop.
Support: 156.65, 156.31, 156.08
Resistance: 157.35, 157.60, 158.60
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 157.35 break cap and back through the 157.60 range floor would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 156.65 recent low and 156.31 swing low exposes the 5-week low at 156.08; a close below confirms a lower-low
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC: a December-hike signal vs neutral guidance could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and BoJ decision Fri 03:00 UTC are a second event cluster for the 156.08 floor
01:03 UTC
Downtrend after range break, momentum basing · RSI 34 · price 156.787
Lower highs below the broken 157.57 range floor; consolidating above the 156.08 week low.
The two-week 157.57–158.60 range gave way mid-week as geopolitical risk-off, lower UST yields and a hotter Japan CPI drove the yen bid. The decline printed a 156.08 week low, and price has since rotated between that low, the 156.31 swing low and a 157.16 lower high, with rebounds capped near the 38.2% retracement of the drop. EMA20 has crossed below EMA50 and ATR has expanded to roughly 50 pips from the ~30-pip range regime.
Support: 156.31, 156.08, 156.00
Resistance: 157.16, 157.57, 158.60
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 156.08 week low and the 156.00 round number confirms a lower low and extends the downtrend
Recovery through the 157.16 lower high and the lower-highs trendline weakens the downside structure
Reclaiming the 157.57 range floor, near the 61.8% of the drop fib and EMA50, would mark the break as a false break
FOMC Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish hike signal targets the range floor
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and BoJ decision Fri ~03:00 UTC are a second volatility event for the 156.00 area