HH/HL chain from the 157.70 NY swing low; fresh break above 158.00 in thin pre-Tokyo trade.
USD/JPY has printed a session high at 158.02 ahead of the Tokyo open, extending a higher-low chain from the 157.70 NY swing low along rising support after London cleared the 157.42–157.83 Asian range. The pair is tracking a firm USD into FOMC and a soft yen. RSI(14) is around 65, so the break is not stretched, but ranges are thin at roughly 4 pips per bar.
Support: 158.00, 157.85, 157.70
Resistance: 158.02
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.00 round number would turn the push into a false break
M15 close below the 157.85 higher low breaks rising support and the HL chain
A break of the 157.70 NY swing low would invalidate the intraday uptrend read
Tokyo open liquidity and any MoF/Katayama escalation above 158.00 could reverse the move quickly
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 157.42 Asian low to 157.99, now pressing 158.00 in early Asia.
A steady chain of higher lows (157.58 London, 157.70 NY, 157.85 late NY, 157.89 at rollover) has lifted USD/JPY through the Asian range high and the 157.80 UOB pivot. The move comes as the yen stays soft and USD firms into Wednesday's Fed. Early Asia is now grinding into the 158.00 round number on thin ranges, with RSI(14) at 63 and ATR(14) near 4 pips; the session high at 157.99 is the immediate cap.
Support: 157.886, 157.851, 157.80
Resistance: 157.989, 158.00
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 158.00 round number would leave the 157.99 session high as a cap and turn the grind into consolidation
Loss of the 157.89 rollover low, then the 157.85 swing low near 38.2% of the NY leg fib, breaks the HH/HL chain
A drop back below the 157.80 uob pivot near the 61.8% fib undercuts the rising lows line and the breakout
Katayama intervention rhetoric near the highs and the Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
23:17 UTC
Uptrend, compressing near highs · RSI 61 · price 157.972
Higher lows since London; pressing session high in early Asia.
USD/JPY built higher lows through London and NY (157.58, the 157.70 ny low, then the 157.85 swing low) as the yen stayed soft into the Fed. Early Asia is pressing the 157.985 session high just under the 158.00 round number, with ATR(14) compressed near 4 pips after the rollover low at 157.886.
Support: 157.886, 157.851, 157.698
Resistance: 157.985, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 round number extends the higher-high chain beyond the session high
Break below the 157.886 rollover low and 157.851 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and puts the fib 38.2% near 157.83 in view
Loss of the 157.70 ny low unwinds the rising support from NY hours
Fresh MoF intervention rhetoric near 158 could disrupt the grind; Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger event risk
Higher lows from 157.58 London low; compressing under 158.00.
A higher-low chain from the 157.58 London low through NY has carried price to the 157.98 session high in thin early Asia trade. Price sits just under the 158.00 round number, with the 157.85 swing low and 157.89 rollover low as the nearest higher lows. Yen softness into the Fed and BoJ keeps the pair above the 157.80 area.
Support: 157.886, 157.851, 157.698
Resistance: 157.981, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 round number extends the higher-high chain; a rejection there leaves a tight cap at the session high
Break of the 157.85 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 157.70 NY low
A retracement of the London low-high leg through the 38.2% fib at ~157.83 would weaken the grind
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and BoJ on Friday could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain since London low, pressing 158.00.
Higher lows since London's 157.584 dip, through the 157.698 NY low, 157.851 swing low and 157.886 rollover low, carried price above the 157.80 range-top flagged in the yen digest, on a softer JPY and a firm USD into the Fed. Thin post-rollover trade printed a 157.981 24h high just shy of the 158.00 round number before slipping back to 157.93, sitting on the rising trendline. RSI(14) near 57 and ATR around 4 pips reflect quiet late-day conditions.
Support: 157.886, 157.851, 157.698
Resistance: 157.981, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.886 rollover low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 157.851 swing low
Loss of the 157.698 NY low would undo the NY-session advance
Close above the 24h high at 157.981 and the 158.00 round number extends the higher-high sequence
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the main event risk; Katayama intervention rhetoric remains a headline risk for JPY
Higher highs and higher lows since the London low, price at the 24h high.
A higher-low chain from the London low at 157.58 through the NY low at 157.70 and the late-NY swing low at 157.85 has lifted price to a fresh 24h high at 157.98 in thin early Asia trade, just under the 158.00 round number. Yen softness into the Fed and BoJ keeps the pair above the 157.80 area. RSI(14) near 66 is not stretched, and ATR around 4 pips reflects quiet post-rollover conditions.
Support: 157.85, 157.70, 157.58
Resistance: 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 round number extends the higher-high sequence
A break below the 157.85 swing low and the higher-low trendline ends the rising structure from London
Loss of the 157.70 NY low, near the 50% fib of the London-low rally (157.78), exposes the london low at 157.58
Tokyo open liquidity could widen the range from the current ~4-pip ATR
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC (hold f/c) and Powell at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since London, compressing under the session high post-rollover.
Higher lows at 157.584, the 157.698 NY low and the 157.851 swing low carried USD/JPY to a 157.97 session high late in NY, as the firm USD into the Fed and a soft yen held price above the 157.80 area. The London-NY leg has barely retraced. Post-rollover trade is thin and compressed just under the session high, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 157.851, 157.698
Resistance: 157.97, 158.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.851 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 157.698 NY low
A close above the 157.97 session high opens the 158.00 round number
A London-NY leg retracement deeper than 61.8% (~157.73) would undercut the uptrend read
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain since London; late-NY compression under 157.97.
Yen softness and a firm USD into Wednesday's FOMC carried USD/JPY through London and NY on higher lows (157.58, 157.70, 157.85), clearing the 157.80 range top to a 157.97 session high. Late NY has compressed into a 157.85–157.97 band with RSI(14) near 51 and ATR about 4 pips. The thin rollover dip to 157.89 held above the swing low.
Support: 157.851, 157.80, 157.698
Resistance: 157.97, 158.00
What it said to watch
A break of the 157.85 swing low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 157.80 range top
Failure to hold the 157.80 range top shifts focus to the NY swing low at 157.70
A close above the 157.97 session high opens the 158.00 round number
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Asia session liquidity thin until then
Higher lows from London through NY, tight 157.85–157.97 range into rollover.
USD/JPY stepped higher on firmer USD and soft yen, building rising lows from the 157.58 london low and the 157.70 ny low to a 157.85 swing low, and printing a 157.97 session high late in NY. Price is now compressed just under the session high and the 158.00 round number after the rollover, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and ATR(14) around 4.5 pips. The fib of the London-low-to-high leg puts 50% near 157.78.
Support: 157.85, 157.70, 157.58
Resistance: 157.97, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.85 swing low breaks the rising lows sequence and exposes the 157.70 ny low
Close above the 157.97 session high and the 158.00 round number extends the higher-high chain
Asia session open could set a new range off the 157.85–157.97 box
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asian low, pressing session high.
Clean higher-low sequence from the 157.42 Asian low (157.58, 157.70 ny low, 157.85 swing low) as USD firmed into FOMC. The pair cleared the 157.80 range top and printed a 157.97 session high in late NY. RSI(14) ~58 and ATR ~5 pips point to compressed, low-liquidity drift just under the 158.00 round number.
Support: 157.851, 157.80, 157.698
Resistance: 157.97, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.85 swing low and the higher-low trendline breaks the HH/HL chain, putting 157.80 range top and the 157.70 ny low back in play
Acceptance above the 157.97 session high and the 158.00 round number extends the higher-high sequence
A slip back under the 157.80 range top would turn the move into a false break; the fib of the 157.58–157.97 leg (157.82/157.73) marks the retracement zone
Pre-FOMC positioning and any MoF/Katayama intervention rhetoric during the Asia session could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows from the London low, pressing day high.
Higher-low chain from the 157.584 London low through the 157.698 NY low and 157.851 swing low has carried price to a fresh day high at 157.963 after NY close, just under the 158.00 round number, with yen softness into FOMC behind the move. RSI(14) near 62 and ATR around 5 pips show a compact, orderly late-session grind along the rising trendline.
Support: 157.851, 157.698, 157.584
Resistance: 157.963, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 round number extends the day high breakout into Asia session
Break below the 157.851 swing low ends the higher-low chain; the 157.698 NY low is next
Rising trendline near 157.92: a loss of it signals the grind stalling
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London, compressing under day high.
USDJPY cleared the 157.83 Asian high in London and has printed higher lows at 157.58, the 157.70 NY low and the 157.85 swing low. It now sits just under the 157.96 day high in late NY. Yen softness on better risk sentiment and firm US data keeps price pressing the 158.00 round number. RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 5 pips point to tight post-NY compression rather than an extended move.
Support: 157.851, 157.83, 157.698
Resistance: 157.956, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.85 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline
Acceptance above the 157.96 day high puts the 158.00 round number in play
Loss of the 157.70 NY low, near the 61.8% of the 157.58–157.96 rally, would undo the post-London structure
FOMC on Wed 18:00 UTC is the next event that could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain intact since Asia open; price above 157.80 pivot.
Higher lows from 157.421 in Asia through London and NY, with the firm USD tone lifting price through the 157.80 pivot to a 157.956 session high. The 19:00 UTC rejection at the high stalled at the 157.851 swing low, near the 38.2% of the NY swing fib and above the rising trendline. Price is drifting below the high into the NY close; RSI(14) is neutral near 58.
Support: 157.851, 157.80, 157.698
Resistance: 157.956, 158.00
What it said to watch
A break of the 157.851 swing low and the rising trendline would end the higher-low chain and expose the 157.80 pivot
A return below the 157.80 pivot toward the 157.698 NY low would undo the break of the digest's 157.80 level
An M15 close above the 157.956 session high opens the 158.00 round number
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the next major risk; MoF/Katayama rhetoric near 158 could jolt this read
19:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, late-NY pause below day high · RSI 57 · price 157.906
Higher-low chain since London dip; holding above Asian high.
USD/JPY cleared the 157.832 Asian high and the 157.80 pivot on a firm dollar into FOMC. Higher lows ran from 157.584 to the 157.698 NY low and then the 157.851 swing low, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the 157.698–157.956 leg. Late NY is drifting just under the 157.956 day high, RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 157.851, 157.832, 157.698
Resistance: 157.956, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.851 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and opens a return to the 157.832 Asian high
Loss of the 157.698 NY low unwinds the NY leg back into the 157.80 range
Break of the 157.956 day high exposes the 158.00 round number
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC can reset intraday structure; the Asia session is likely to stay thin before then
19:32 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near highs · RSI 55 · price 157.903
HH/HL chain since Asia open; late NY holding above 157.80.
Higher lows have stepped up all day from 157.42 at the Asia open, and London broke the Asian range high. The NY high at 157.924 failed after the 14:00 UTC data and pulled back to the 157.698 swing low. Price then set a fresh day high at 157.956 as firm US data and pre-FOMC USD demand kept the pair above 157.80. The 19:00 UTC dip held the 157.85 higher low near the fib 38.2% of that leg, with the rising trendline intact underneath.
Support: 157.85, 157.698, 157.584
Resistance: 157.956, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.85 higher low breaks the latest HL in the chain
Loss of the 157.698 swing low and the rising trendline undoes the NY-session leg; london low 157.584 is next
Day high 157.956 and the 158.00 round number cap the move; a close above extends the HH sequence
Asia session MoF/Katayama FX rhetoric near these levels could interrupt the grind
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back off highs · RSI 51 · price 157.864
HH/HL chain from the 157.584 London low; late-NY pullback from the session high.
Higher lows through London and NY, at 157.584 and then the 157.698 ny swing low, carried price to a session high at 157.956 late in NY as a firm USD and fading haven demand weighed on the yen. The 18:30 UTC bar's rejection knocked 10 pips off the top, back to the 38.2% fib at the 157.84 micro base, still above the 157.80 uob pivot.
Support: 157.84, 157.80, 157.698
Resistance: 157.924, 157.956, 158.00
What it said to watch
A close back above the 157.924 ny open high and the 157.956 session high resumes the HH chain, with the 158.00 round number next
Failure at the 157.84 micro base and the 157.80 uob pivot exposes rising support near 157.81, then the 157.698 ny swing low
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the next major risk; thin late-NY and Asia session trade may limit follow-through before it
Higher lows at 157.58 and 157.70; tight late-NY consolidation under the session high.
Higher lows at 157.58 and the 157.70 swing low carried price through the London high and the asian high at 157.83, with the NY leg topping at the 157.96 session high. A firm USD into FOMC and fading yen haven demand back the grind. Late-NY bars are compressing above the 157.84 pullback low, with RSI(14) near 64 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 157.84, 157.83, 157.698
Resistance: 157.956, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.96 session high opens the 158.00 round number
Loss of the 157.84 pullback low and the asian high at 157.83 puts price back inside the London-NY range
Break below the 157.70 swing low violates the higher-low trendline and the NY leg fib 61.8% near 157.80
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; positioning into it is already USD-heavy
18:47 UTC
Uptrend, steady grind into late NY · RSI 63 · price 157.918
Higher lows from the London low, session highs stepping up.
Higher lows from the 157.584 London low through the 157.698 NY low carried the pair above the 157.80 pivot to a 157.956 session high late in NY, helped by firm US data and a soft yen. RSI(14) near 63 and ATR around 5.5 pips point to steady, unstretched momentum, with the 157.84 pullback low the nearest floor on the higher-low trendline.
Support: 157.84, 157.698, 157.584
Resistance: 157.956, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.84 pullback low puts the 157.77 50% retrace of the London-NY leg in play
Failure to hold the 157.698 NY low breaks the higher-low trendline and the HH/HL chain
Session high at 157.956 and the 158.00 round number: area to watch for rejection or break
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and MoF/Katayama intervention rhetoric could materially shift this read
18:32 UTC
Uptrend, steady grind into late NY · RSI 63 · price 157.943
Higher highs and higher lows through London and NY.
USDJPY has built higher lows at 157.584 in London and the 157.698 NY swing low. Late NY cleared the 14:00 UTC prior high at 157.924 and printed a session high at 157.956, holding above the 157.80 level as firm US data and a soft yen carry into FOMC. The 158.00 round number sits just overhead, and RSI(14) near 63 is not stretched.
Support: 157.924, 157.84, 157.698
Resistance: 157.956, 158.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 157.84 pivot lows would break the rising trendline and stall the higher-low chain
A loss of the 157.698 NY swing low would invalidate the HH/HL sequence and expose the 61.8% London-NY fib near 157.73
Rejection at the 158.00 round number or session high would point to a late-session range, while acceptance above extends the breakout
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and any escalation in MoF/Katayama FX rhetoric could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asia low; late-NY consolidation just under session high.
Higher lows at 157.42 (Asia), the 157.58 London low and the 157.70 NY low carried price through 157.80 to a session high at 157.945 after London close, with the USD bid into FOMC. Price is holding just under that high in late NY, with the 157.84 pullback low below.
Support: 157.84, 157.70, 157.58
Resistance: 157.945, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.84 pullback low puts the 157.945 high at risk of a failed break
Loss of the 157.70 NY low breaks the higher-low trendline and the HL chain
Acceptance above the 157.945 session high brings the 158.00 round number into play
A drop under the 157.58 London low would undo today's push above 157.80
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the next major USD event and could reset this structure
Higher lows since NY low; marginal break above session high.
Late NY session. USDJPY printed a fresh session high at 157.945, clearing the 157.92 post-data spike high after demand stepped in at the 157.70 NY low. A higher-low chain since then has the pair holding above the 157.80 pivot, which coincides with the fib 38.2% of the London-low swing, as firm USD into FOMC keeps the yen on the back foot. Asian range top 157.87 and London's 157.88 failure are now below price.
Support: 157.84, 157.80, 157.70
Resistance: 157.945, 158.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.84 higher low breaks the NY higher-low trendline
M15 close back below the 157.80 pivot puts the breakout at risk of a false break
Rejection at the session high 157.945 and 158.00 round number would signal another failure at the highs
Late-NY thinning into the 21:00 UTC rollover; FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the next major risk
Higher lows (157.58 → 157.70), compressing under the 157.92 session high.
Late NY session, USD/JPY is holding above the 157.80 pivot after the NY low at 157.70 printed a higher low versus the 157.58 London low. Firm USD into Wednesday's FOMC and fading yen haven demand have it compressing just under the 157.92 session high. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR(14) about 7 pips.
Support: 157.80, 157.698, 157.584
Resistance: 157.924, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.92 session high opens the 158.00 round number
Return below the 157.80 pivot puts price back inside the prior range
Break of the 157.70 NY low snaps the higher-low chain toward the 157.58 London low
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, consolidating under high · RSI 58 · price 157.892
The 12:30 UTC durables beat lifted the pair off the rising trendline from the 157.58 London low to a 157.92 session high. The pullback held the 157.70 NY swing low, and price is now consolidating just under the high after London close, holding above the 157.80 area flagged in the yen digest. RSI(14) is near 58 and ATR is about 7 pips.
Support: 157.842, 157.698, 157.584
Resistance: 157.924, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.92 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 158.00 round number
Loss of the 157.84 micro low puts the 157.70 NY swing low and the rising trendline back in play
Break below the 157.58 London low invalidates the intraday uptrend read
Pre-FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) positioning may keep late-NY ranges compressed
After London close, USD/JPY is holding above the 157.80 pivot. Firm US data (CB Confidence 91.7, new home sales beat) lifted the pair to a 157.92 session high, but that high was rejected and the pullback retraced about two-thirds of the NY leg to the 157.70 ny swing low. Higher lows from the 157.58 london low keep a rising trendline intact beneath a 157.90–157.92 cap, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR(14) about 7 pips.
Support: 157.80, 157.698, 157.584
Resistance: 157.924, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.80 pivot exposes the 157.70 ny swing low and the rising trendline
Break of the 157.92 session high opens the 158.00 round number
Loss of the 157.58 london low negates the higher-low sequence
Wed FOMC (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; post-London liquidity is thin until then
17:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 58 · price 157.888
Higher lows at 157.584 and 157.698, price holding above 157.80.
Firm US data (durables beat, CB Confidence 91.7) lifted the pair to a day high of 157.924 in the first hours of NY. The pullback held the NY low at 157.698 near the 61.8% retracement of the London low–day high leg, and the late-NY recovery is back above the 157.80 breakout lvl. RSI(14) sits at a neutral 58.
Support: 157.80, 157.698, 157.584
Resistance: 157.924, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.924 day high opens the 158.00 round number
Failure to hold the 157.80 breakout lvl puts the move back inside the prior range
Break below the 157.698 ny low ends the higher-low chain from the 157.584 london low and voids the rising support
MoF/Katayama FX rhetoric and positioning into Wednesday's FOMC could shift this read
HL chain from 157.58, retesting 157.92 session high.
Firm US data lifted the pair through the 157.83 Asian high to a 157.92 session high. The 15:00 UTC pullback found demand at the 157.70 NY low, extending the rising lows from the 157.58 London low. Late in NY, price is retesting the session high with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 157.83, 157.70, 157.584
Resistance: 157.924, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.92 session high opens the 158.00 round number
Slip back below the 157.83 Asian high returns price to the 157.70–157.92 session range
Break of the 157.70 NY low and the rising lows trendline ends the higher-low chain toward the 157.58 London low
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows at 157.58 and 157.70 under a 157.92 session high, now retesting the high.
USD/JPY climbed from the 157.42 Asia-open low and set a 157.584 London low. The durables beat at the NY open pushed it back above the 157.80 pivot, and it printed a 157.924 session high after CB Confidence. The pullback held a higher low at 157.698 on the rising trendline, and price is now retesting the session high with RSI(14) near 58, not stretched.
Support: 157.80, 157.698, 157.584
Resistance: 157.924, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.924 session high opens the 158.00 round number
Slip back below the 157.80 pivot puts the breakout above UOB's range top in doubt
Break of the 157.698 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 157.584 London low
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the next event risk and could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from the London low, pressing the session high.
USD/JPY is back at the 157.92 session high, set during the US data run, after the mid-NY dip held a higher low at 157.70, well above the 157.58 London low. Firm US prints and a softer yen have the pair holding above the 157.80 pivot into the London close, and RSI(14) near 61 is not stretched.
Support: 157.80, 157.698, 157.584
Resistance: 157.924, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.92 session high opens the 158.00 round number
Failure to hold the 157.70 higher low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 157.58 London low
Slip back below the 157.80 pivot returns price to the earlier intraday range
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the next major event risk and could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the Asia low, consolidating just under the session high.
Higher lows all day from the 157.42 Asia low, and the beat in US Durable Goods at the NY open lifted price through the london high to a 157.924 session high. The later NY dip held the 157.698 ny swing low above the rising lows line, and price is back over the 157.80 pivot at 157.86 after London close, RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 157.80, 157.698, 157.584
Resistance: 157.881, 157.924
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.924 session high extends the HH/HL chain beyond the london high cap
Loss of the 157.80 pivot and the rising lows line exposes the ny swing low. A break of the 157.584 london low ends the higher-low sequence
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asian low; pullback held near 61.8%.
Higher lows since the 157.421 Asian low. The headline Durable Goods beat at 12:30 UTC pushed price through the 157.80 pivot, and NY printed a 157.924 session high before a pullback to the 157.698 swing low, near the 61.8% retracement of the move from the 157.584 London low. Price is back at 157.83 and retesting the pivot from above, RSI(14) at 61.
Support: 157.80, 157.698, 157.584
Resistance: 157.881, 157.924
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.698 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence
M15 close back below the 157.80 pivot turns the retest into a rejection
Clearing the 157.881 London high and 157.924 session high extends the higher-high chain
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC: pre-decision positioning could compress or jolt this range late in NY
15:32 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 55 · price 157.782
Higher-low chain intact; NY rejection from 157.924 held at 157.70.
Higher lows have stepped up from Monday's 157.37 NY trough through Asia and London. The firm USD and US data pushed price to a 157.924 day high, which was rejected back to the 157.70 NY low. Price is now back at the 157.80 pivot flagged in the yen digest, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 157.698, 157.584
Resistance: 157.80, 157.881, 157.924
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.80 pivot reopens the 157.881 london high and 157.924 day high
Break of the 157.70 ny low and the higher-lows line exposes the 157.584 london low and ends the HL chain
No scheduled risk in the next 8h; the FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
False break above Asian high, pullback to 61.8% of London-low rally.
The Durable Goods beat lifted price through the asian high at 157.88 in the first hours of NY, but the 157.92 session high drew a rejection that pulled price back under the 157.80 breakout lvl. Mid-NY, price is testing the fib 61.8 near 157.70, below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) at 45.
Support: 157.70, 157.584, 157.421
Resistance: 157.80, 157.88, 157.924
What it said to watch
M15 close below the fib 61.8 at 157.70 confirms the false break and exposes the london low at 157.58
Failure at 157.58 opens a return toward the asian low at 157.42
Recovery above the 157.80 breakout lvl puts the asian high and 157.92 session high back in play
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled driver; no listed releases in the coming 8h
14:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling after NY rejection · RSI 47 · price 157.763
Higher lows since Asia; rejection at 157.924 session high, pullback to 61.8%.
London extended the Asian-range break, and the US Durables beat lifted the pair to a 157.924 session high in early NY hours before a rejection. The drop stalled at the 157.704 pullback low, near the 61.8% retracement of the London low rally. Price is now holding just under the 157.80 pivot, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and price slipping below EMA20.
Support: 157.704, 157.584
Resistance: 157.80, 157.881, 157.924
What it said to watch
Close back above the 157.80 pivot and the 157.881 london high reopens the 157.924 session high
Failure to hold the 157.704 pullback low and the rising lows trendline exposes the 157.584 london low
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the next major USD risk, and pre-decision positioning may keep NY ranges contained
14:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling after a failed push higher · RSI 55 · price 157.778
Higher lows from Asia into NY, with a false break above the London high.
Firm-USD tone ahead of FOMC carried USD/JPY through the 157.80 pivot to a 157.924 session high in early NY. The 14:15 UTC bar then rejected back to a 157.75 spike low, a false break above the 157.88 London high. Price now sits on the 20-EMA near the 50% retracement of the London low–session high leg, with RSI(14) neutral around 55.
Support: 157.75, 157.676, 157.584
Resistance: 157.80, 157.88, 157.924
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.80 pivot and the 157.88 London high would neutralise the false-break read; a close above the 157.924 session high extends the higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 157.75 spike low (50% retracement) exposes the 157.676 higher low
A break of the 157.584 London low and the rising-lows line would end the intraday higher-low sequence
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst; no listed events in the next 8h
HH/HL chain above Asian range; capped below 157.92 session high.
USD/JPY cleared the 157.83 Asian range high and is holding above the 157.80 break level, with higher lows at the 157.584 London low and 157.676 into the London-NY transition as the firmer USD and soft yen tone carry into Wednesday's Fed decision. The 14:00 UTC data window spiked price to a 157.924 session high that was rejected. Price now sits just under the 157.88 London high, with RSI(14) near 65.
Support: 157.80, 157.676, 157.584
Resistance: 157.881, 157.924, 158.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 157.80 break level puts price back inside the prior range.
Losing the 157.676 higher low breaks the intraday HL chain and exposes the 157.584 London low.
A close above the 157.924 session high and the London high opens the 158.00 round number.
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and pre-event USD positioning could materially shift this read.
14:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since London · RSI 62 · price 157.913
Higher-low chain off 157.58; NY breakout above London high.
Early NY broke above the London high at 157.88 and is pressing the 157.92 session high, extending a higher-low chain from the 157.58 London low that picked up after the 12:30 UTC durable goods beat. The Asian range (157.42–157.83) has been cleared to the upside, and the UOB pivot at 157.80 now sits below price, with the 158.00 round number next overhead.
Support: 157.88, 157.80, 157.584
Resistance: 157.916, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the london high at 157.88 would turn the breakout into a false break
Break of the higher-low trendline near the 157.80 uob pivot ends the HL chain; the london low at 157.58 is the next structural floor
Rejection at the 157.92 session high or the 158.00 round number keeps the move capped below the figure
Consumer Confidence / New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC, printing now, could jolt the session high test
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant event risk and could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the London low, pressing the session high.
USDJPY rallied from the 157.42 Asia session open low to a 157.88 session high around London open. It then dipped to a 157.58 London low and has stepped up through higher lows, the latest at 157.68. Price is back at the session high after the 12:30 UTC durable goods beat, holding just above the 157.80 UOB pivot as MoF jawboning fails to lift the yen.
Support: 157.80, 157.68, 157.58
Resistance: 157.88, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.88 session high opens the 158.00 round number
Break below the 157.68 higher low, and the higher-low line, ends the intraday HH/HL chain; 157.58 London low next
Loss of the 157.80 UOB pivot returns price to the London pullback range
US Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Higher lows from 157.58 pressing the 157.88 London-open high.
The Tokyo rally from 157.42 topped at the 157.88 session high on the London open. The late-London pullback held 157.58, the london low, close to the 61.8% retracement. A chain of higher lows has carried price back above the 157.80 UOB pivot into the NY open, with yen weakness persisting despite Katayama's jawboning.
Support: 157.80, 157.68, 157.58
Resistance: 157.88, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.88 session high clears the day's top and opens the 158.00 round number
Break of the 157.68 higher low and the higher-lows trendline puts the 157.58 london low back in focus
Slipping back under the 157.80 UOB pivot returns price to the London range
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, about 30 minutes out, is the next event risk
Higher lows since London low, capped under 157.88.
Asia lifted the pair off 157.42 to a session high of 157.881 at the London open. London's pullback held the 157.584 London low, and a higher low at 157.676 followed. The Durables headline beat in early NY pushed price back onto the 157.80 UOB pivot, but the NY high at 157.849 sits just under the session high, so price is compressing between a rising trendline and lower highs.
Support: 157.80, 157.676, 157.584
Resistance: 157.849, 157.881
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.881 session high breaks the compression and extends the Asia-London advance
Loss of the 157.80 UOB pivot puts the rising trendline and 157.676 higher low back in play
Break below the 157.584 London low ends the higher-low sequence
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst, with FOMC risk building into Wednesday
13:02 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London dip · RSI 59 · price 157.815
Higher-low sequence pressing back toward the 157.88 session high.
London's dip from the 157.88 session high held 157.58 (london low), and higher lows at 157.68 have carried price back to the 157.80 UOB pivot into the London-NY transition. JPY stays offered into Fed/BoJ week, with Katayama's warnings not slowing the move, and RSI(14) at 59 shows the push is not stretched.
Support: 157.80, 157.68, 157.58
Resistance: 157.88, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.88 session high clears the London top and opens the 158.00 round number
Failure to hold the 157.80 uob pivot returns price to the 157.68–157.58 band
Break below 157.68 higher low invalidates the higher-low trendline; a loss of 157.58 london low resets the structure
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC is a pre-FOMC sentiment check that could jolt the NY session range
12:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off london low · RSI 57 · price 157.818
157.58–157.88 session range, price back at range top.
London faded the 157.881 session high to a 157.584 london low. Higher lows have printed since at 157.622 and 157.676, and the 12:30 GMT Durable Goods slot added a 12-pip pop back onto the 157.80 range top. RSI(14) sits near 57, with no extreme, while the firm-USD tone into FOMC is supporting the rebound.
Support: 157.80, 157.676, 157.584
Resistance: 157.881, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.881 session high breaks the range and brings the 158.00 round number into view
Failure back below 157.80 keeps the range top capping, as it did through London
A break under the 157.676 higher low ends the rising sequence, exposing the 157.584 london low
Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 14:00 GMT could shift this read early in NY
MoF jawboning on approach to 158.00 could cap extensions
Lower highs from 157.88 against higher lows from 157.58, contracting band.
London open pushed to a 157.88 session high, just through the 157.80 range top, but price was rejected back into a 157.58–157.80 band. Since 10:45 UTC, lower highs and a higher low at 157.68 have compressed price onto the EMA20. Firm USD into FOMC and soft JPY ahead of the BoJ keep the pair pinned near the range top.
Support: 157.676, 157.584, 157.548
Resistance: 157.80, 157.881
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 GMT lands on the current bar, and a pop of 10+ pips (over 1x ATR) would decide which side of the contracting band gives way
An M15 close above the 157.88 session high clears the 157.80 range top and voids the rejection read
A break of the 157.68 higher low, then the 157.58 swing low, opens the 157.55 asian low
Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT and Wednesday's FOMC could materially shift this read
12:17 UTC
Sideways after London high, lower highs forming · RSI 51 · price 157.731
157.58–157.88 range since London open, highs compressing lower.
Firm USD on Fed hike bets lifted the pair from the 157.42 asian low to a 157.88 session high early in London, where it met rejection just above the 157.80 range cap. Since then it has ranged with a lower high at 157.78, while the 157.58 london low held near the 61.8% retrace of the Asia-London leg and a higher low formed at 157.62. RSI(14) is neutral near 51 and ATR(14) is about 8.5 pips going into the NY open.
Support: 157.62, 157.58, 157.42
Resistance: 157.78, 157.88
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.88 session high clears the 157.80 cap and the lower highs trendline, ending the range read
Break below the 157.62 higher low, then the 157.58 london low, opens a move back toward the 157.42 asian low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could break the London range early in NY hours
12:02 UTC
Asian uptrend stalled, London ranging · RSI 50 · price 157.753
Lower highs under 157.88, range 157.58–157.80.
The Asian session rally from the 157.42 asian low on firm USD stalled at a 157.88 session high at London open. That is just above the 157.80 range cap flagged in the digest, and London has since printed lower highs on a descending line. Price is chopping inside 157.58–157.80 with RSI(14) flat near 50. Demand stepped in at the 157.65 swing low twice, and at the 157.58 session low, near the 61.8% of the Asian leg fib.
Support: 157.65, 157.58, 157.42
Resistance: 157.80, 157.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.80 range cap and the descending line reopens the 157.88 session high
Break of the 157.58 session low exposes the 157.42 asian low and fails the Asian leg fib
Loss of the 157.65 swing low after a fresh lower high confirms a lower-high, lower-low sequence
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC, in the first hours of NY, could break the London range
11:47 UTC
Intraday up from Asia, stalling below 157.80 · RSI 50 · price 157.741
Lower highs since 157.88 session high; 157.58–157.80 range in London.
A firm USD lifted the pair from the 157.55 pre-London low through the 157.80 range cap to a 157.88 session high at London open. That extension failed, and London has since printed lower highs inside 157.58–157.80. RSI(14) sits near 50 with price pinned to EMA20, a mid-range consolidation late in the London session.
Support: 157.58, 157.55
Resistance: 157.80, 157.88
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.80 range cap breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 157.88 session high back in play.
Failure to hold the 157.58 London low exposes the 157.55 pre-London low and confirms a lower low.
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could break the range around NY open.
Fed on Wednesday and BoJ on Friday keep 157.80 contested; MoF jawboning adds headline risk on any push higher.
11:32 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asia rally · RSI 41 · price 157.646
Lower highs since London open, London low at 157.58.
The Asia rally from the 157.42 asian low, carried by the firm USD, topped at the 157.88 session high on the London open. It met rejection there and has faded into lower highs under the UOB 157.80 range top, the latest at 157.72. Mid-London, the 157.58 london low is holding around the 61.8% retrace of the Asia leg, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 157.584, 157.548, 157.421
Resistance: 157.72, 157.80, 157.881
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.58 london low and the 157.55 asia swing confirms a lower-low and exposes the 157.42 asian low
M15 close above the 157.72 lower high and the 157.80 range top negates the London lower-high sequence
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read into NY open
11:17 UTC
Asia-session rally stalled, London pulling back · RSI 42 · price 157.682
London open pushed through the Asian high at 157.83 to a 157.88 session high but could not hold it, and has printed lower highs since. Price found demand at the 157.58 london low, near the 61.8% retrace of the move from the asian low, and is now mid-range under ema20 with RSI(14) near 42. The firm-USD digest tone is cushioning dips ahead of the US data.
Support: 157.584, 157.421
Resistance: 157.797, 157.881
What it said to watch
M15 close below 157.58 london low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 157.42 asian low
Close above the 157.80 lower high breaks the descending trendline and puts the 157.88 session high back in focus
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Asian uptrend stalled, London printing lower highs · RSI 41 · price 157.609
False break of Asian high, London low at 157.65 giving way.
London pushed through the Asian high to a 157.881 session high, just above the 157.80 cap flagged in the yen digest, then failed. The lower high at 157.797 and the slip through the 157.65 london low have brought price to the 61.8% fib of the Asian leg, with RSI(14) near 41 and USD firmness pausing before US data.
Support: 157.597, 157.548, 157.421
Resistance: 157.65, 157.797, 157.881
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 61.8% fib at 157.60 exposes the 157.55 asia swing, then the 157.42 asian low
Recovery back above the 157.65 london low and the 157.80 lower high neutralises the failed-break read
A break of the lower-highs line above 157.88 would put the session high back in play
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could reset the NY session range
FOMC on Wed and BoJ on Fri keep event risk elevated; MoF intervention rhetoric caps upside sentiment
Failed London break above cap, compressing 157.65–157.80.
London opened with a push through the 157.80 range cap to a 157.881 session high on the firm USD tone. The push failed and price retraced to a 157.65 swing low near the 61.8% fib of the 157.548–157.881 leg. Now compressing in 157.65–157.80 with lower highs against rising support, and RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 157.65, 157.548
Resistance: 157.80, 157.881
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.881 session high invalidates the false-break read
Break below the 157.65 swing low exposes the 157.548 higher low and breaks rising support
Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could move USD before the NY open settles
Fed decision Wed is the main event risk for this structure
Asian higher-low chain intact; London range 157.65–157.88 under the 157.80 pivot.
London cleared the Asian high to a 157.88 session high and was rejected. The pullback found demand twice at the 157.65 London low, the 50% retrace of the Asia leg off 157.42. Yen softness meets Katayama's verbal pushback, leaving price compressing just under the 157.80 range pivot with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 157.65, 157.548
Resistance: 157.80, 157.881
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.88 session high breaks the London range and the 157.80 range pivot
Loss of the 157.65 London low breaks rising support and exposes the 157.55 swing low
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could shift the NY-session read
Any escalation in Japanese official FX rhetoric near 157.80–157.88
Failed London break above 157.80; lower highs over a 157.65 base.
The London open pushed through the Asian high and the 157.80 pivot to a 157.88 session high, but the move faded back to the 157.65 london low, the 50% fib of the Asia leg, which held twice. Price is coiling under a lower-highs line near 157.75 with RSI(14) neutral at 48. Yen softness persists, but Katayama's intervention warnings are capping follow-through.
Support: 157.65, 157.55, 157.42
Resistance: 157.80, 157.88
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 157.80 pivot and the lower-highs line reopens the 157.88 session high
Failure to hold the 157.65 london low exposes the 157.55 swing low, then the 157.42 asian low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Escalation in MoF or Katayama FX rhetoric near 157.80–157.88 could trigger a sharp yen bid
False break of Asian high, lower highs from 157.881, testing 157.65.
London pushed through the 157.832 Asian high and the 157.80 cap to a 157.881 london high, then rejected, in line with MoF warnings capping the pair; a lower high followed at 157.78. Late in the London morning, price is retesting the london low at 157.65, where the 50% retrace of the Asia-London leg meets the rising trendline from the 157.421 asian low.
Support: 157.65, 157.548, 157.421
Resistance: 157.78, 157.881
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.65 london low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 157.548 asia swing
Close back above the 157.78 lower high and 157.80 cap reopens the 157.881 london high
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC in NY hours could shift this read
Higher lows since Asia open; London false break above 157.80 range top.
London cleared the Asian high and the 157.80 range top to a 157.881 session high. It was rejected back under 157.80 as MoF intervention warnings cap the yen sell-off. Demand held the 157.653 london low near the 61.8% fib, keeping the higher-low trendline from the Asian open intact, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 157.653, 157.548
Resistance: 157.80, 157.881
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 157.80 range top, then 157.881 session high, would turn the false break into a breakout
Loss of 157.653 london low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes 157.548 asian low
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC during NY hours could shift this read; FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger event risk
Higher lows from the Asian low; failed hold above 157.80 range top.
Late Asia cleared the 157.76 Asian high and London extended to a 157.881 session high on a firm USD. The push above the 157.80 range top, the level UOB and MoF intervention warnings point to, faded twice and price is back to 157.72–157.76. Higher lows from the 157.42 Asian low remain intact on rising support, RSI(14) ~56 and ATR ~8 pips.
Support: 157.717, 157.548
Resistance: 157.80, 157.881
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.717 london low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 38.2% fib near 157.70, then the 157.548 swing low
Sustained M15 closes back above the 157.80 range top negate the false-break read, with the 157.881 session high the next reference
Break of the rising support from the Asian low would end the intraday uptrend structure
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Conference Board Confidence (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read during NY hours
Escalation in MoF language beyond 'decisive steps' could change the read on any approach toward 158
09:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling after London open · RSI 55 · price 157.755
Asia higher-low chain; London open false break above 157.80, now compressing 157.72–157.80.
Asia built higher lows from 157.42 on a firm USD into FOMC, and the London open pushed through the 157.80 range top to a 157.88 session high before rejection. Price is holding the 157.72 london low, just above the 38.2% of the Asia–London leg fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 157.72, 157.64, 157.55
Resistance: 157.80, 157.88
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.80 range top reopens the 157.88 session high; MoF jawboning risk rises as price approaches 158
Failure to hold the 157.72 london low and the 38.2% fib exposes yesterday's 157.64 prior high, then the 157.55 swing low near the asia trendline
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's Fed
08:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 58 · price 157.732
HH/HL chain from Asian low; London open rejection at 157.88, testing 157.72 swing low.
The Asian high at 157.76 broke late in Asia. The London open then printed a session high at 157.88, and a rejection there has pulled price back onto the 157.72 swing low and EMA20. The higher-low chain from 157.42 through 157.55 is intact, with soft JPY and pre-FOMC dollar short-covering behind the rebound and MoF jawboning in the background.
Support: 157.723, 157.651, 157.548
Resistance: 157.759, 157.881, 158.00
What it said to watch
A close below the 157.72 swing low breaks the higher-low line and leaves a double top at 157.87–157.88, putting the fib 50% at 157.65 and the 157.55 higher low in focus.
Reclaiming the 157.76 asian high and closing above the 157.88 session high opens the 158.00 round number.
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Conference Board Confidence (14:00 UTC) in the NY session could reset the intraday range.
Escalation in MoF intervention rhetoric near the 158.00 round number could trigger a sharp snap-back.
08:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at London highs · RSI 58 · price 157.732
HH/HL chain from the Tokyo-open low; London rejected twice at 157.87–157.88 and price has slipped back below the Asian high.
A higher-low climb from the 157.421 Tokyo-open low, helped by broad JPY softness and a firmer USD into FOMC, cleared Monday's 157.641 prior high and the 157.759 Asian high. London has twice been rejected at the 157.881 session high. Price is back below the Asian high, testing the 157.723 London low and ema20 near the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib.
Support: 157.723, 157.641, 157.548
Resistance: 157.759, 157.881, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.723 London low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 157.641 prior high near the 50% fib
Loss of the 157.548 higher low and the Asia HL trendline would undo the session's rally structure
A close back above the 157.881 session high reopens the 158.00 round number, where MoF intervention rhetoric is in focus
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Conference Board Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
08:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, at session high · RSI 71 · price 157.865
Higher lows at 157.42, 157.55 and 157.72; new session high at London open.
Asia broke above yesterday's NY prior high at 157.64 and ranged 157.55–157.76 before the Asia leg from 157.42 extended to a 157.872 session high. London open is pressing that high off a 157.72 swing low, with RSI(14) near 71. The grind higher tracks firm USD short-covering into FOMC, with Katayama's intervention warnings hanging over the move toward 158.
Support: 157.723, 157.641, 157.548
Resistance: 157.872, 158.00
What it said to watch
Break below the 157.72 swing low and the higher-low trendline ends the HL chain and exposes the 157.64 prior high, near the Asia leg 50% fib.
Close above the 157.872 session high puts the 158.00 round number in play. Any sharper move there sits in the zone where MoF rhetoric has been escalating.
Loss of the 157.55 asian low invalidates the intraday uptrend read.
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Conference Board Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift USD tone during NY hours.
07:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 58 · price 157.727
Higher lows through Asia; London-open high rejected.
The late-Asia leg off the 157.548 swing low cleared the 157.759 tokyo high, ran to a 157.872 session high at London open and was rejected. Price is now back near the 50% fib of that leg at 157.73, RSI(14) has cooled to ~58, and yesterday's 157.64 ny high sits below. The yen-softness move has stalled under MoF's 'decisive steps' warning.
Support: 157.64, 157.548, 157.421
Resistance: 157.759, 157.872
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.759 tokyo high reopens the 157.872 session high
Failure to hold the 157.64 ny high (61.8% fib zone) exposes the 157.548 swing low; below that, the 157.421 asian low
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Conference Board confidence 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF rate-check or intervention headlines are a tail risk for sharp reversals
07:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from high · RSI 58 · price 157.744
Higher lows through Asia, Asian-high breakout now being retested.
Asia built higher lows off the 157.42 asia low. A late-Asia push cleared the Asian high at 157.76 and tagged a 157.87 session high, before the 07:15 UTC bar snapped back to retest the breakout at the 38.2% fib. The move tracks a firm USD into FOMC and a soft yen, while MoF 'decisive steps' warnings hang over the 158.00 round number.
Support: 157.76, 157.55, 157.42
Resistance: 157.87, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.76 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.55 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and the Asia structure
Close above the 157.87 session high reopens the 158.00 round number, where MoF rhetoric adds two-way risk
London open in ~30 min, then US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range high broken ahead of London open, HH/HL chain intact.
Asia extended Monday's rebound on broad yen softness. Higher lows at 157.42 (asian low) and 157.55 (swing low) set up a break of the 157.76 asian high, with a session high at 157.87 ahead of London open. RSI(14) near 66 is firm but not stretched, the 158.00 round number sits overhead, and MoF's 'decisive steps' warning remains a live headline risk.
Support: 157.76, 157.55, 157.42
Resistance: 157.87, 158.00
What it said to watch
Holding the 157.76 asian high as a retest keeps the breakout read intact; a slip back inside the range turns it into a false break
An M15 close below the 157.55 swing low (61.8% asia rally fib area) breaks the higher-low chain
Rejection at the 157.87 session high or the 158.00 round number, where MoF intervention rhetoric could intensify
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) could reset NY session direction
Loss of the 157.42 asian low unwinds the entire Asia rally
Higher lows through Asia, early-Asia high cleared before London open.
Asia session cleared the 157.641 Monday high, put in a higher low at 157.548, then broke the early-Asia high at 157.759 into London open. The session high at 157.832 is capping for now. The pair's firm tone tracks broad yen softness ahead of the Fed and BoJ, and RSI(14) at 66 is not stretched.
Support: 157.759, 157.641, 157.548
Resistance: 157.832, 158.00
What it said to watch
Session high at 157.832 and the 158.00 round number: area to watch for rejection or extension during London session
M15 close back below the 157.759 asia high would mark the breakout as a false break
A break of the rising support line from the 157.421 Asia-open low, and loss of the 157.548 higher low, ends the intraday higher-low chain
38.2–50% of the Asia leg (157.72–157.69) sits just above the 157.641 monday high and is the first retracement zone
Katayama's escalated FX rhetoric: intervention or rate-check headlines near 158.00 could abruptly reverse the move
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC during NY hours could shift the read
HH/HL chain; late-Asia break above Asian range high.
A late-Asia push cleared the Asian high at 157.759 and printed a session high at 157.832 ahead of London open. That extends the rising lows from the 157.421 Asia low, with RSI(14) near 59 and not stretched. Yen softness into Fed/BoJ week is behind the bid, with Katayama's escalated FX warnings in the background.
Support: 157.759, 157.641, 157.548
Resistance: 157.832, 158.00
What it said to watch
Close back below the 157.759 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 157.548 swing low breaks the rising lows and the HH/HL chain
Failure to hold Monday's 157.641 prior high on a London pullback puts the 61.8% fib near 157.58 in play
Session high 157.832 and the 158.00 round number: area to watch for rejection or extension
MoF rate-check or intervention headlines near 158.00 could abruptly reverse the move
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift the read in NY hours
06:31 UTC
Uptrend, fresh window high · RSI 65 · price 157.826
Late Asia session pushed through the 157.76 Asian high to a 157.83 session high ahead of London open, extending the higher-low chain off the 157.42 Tokyo low and the 157.55 swing low as USD firms into FOMC. RSI(14) near 65 is warm, not stretched. The rising trendline and the fib of the late-Asia leg sit just below.
Support: 157.76, 157.55, 157.42
Resistance: 157.83, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 157.76 asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 157.55 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
158.00 round number above the session high; Katayama/MoF intervention headlines are the main brake on extension
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC could shift the read in NY; FOMC Wed is the larger risk
Pullback holding the 50–61.8% fib of the late-Asia leg (~157.69–157.66) keeps the breakout structure intact
06:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 63 · price 157.779
Higher lows from 157.42, late-Asia break above prior high 157.76.
Late Asia session pushed through the 157.76 prior high to a 24h session high at 157.78, building on higher lows from the 157.42 Asian low and the 157.55 swing low, with RSI(14) near 63 and not stretched. The move fits the firm-USD, soft-JPY tone into Wednesday's FOMC.
Support: 157.76, 157.55, 157.42
Resistance: 157.78, 158.00
What it said to watch
Hold above the 157.76 prior high on a retest keeps the breakout intact; slipping back below reverts to the 157.55–157.76 range
M15 close below the 157.55 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the trendline from the Asian low
158.00 round number is the next reference if the session high gives way into London open
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 58 · price 157.743
Asian range 157.55–157.76 above broken prior high, higher lows intact.
USD/JPY cleared Monday's 157.64 prior high early in Asia, with firm pre-FOMC USD demand behind the move, and has held a 157.55–157.76 range since. The late-Asia push is now testing the Asian high after the range low held twice. RSI(14) near 58 is not stretched.
Support: 157.64, 157.55, 157.42
Resistance: 157.76, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.76 Asian high opens the path to the 158.00 round number
Slip back below the 157.64 prior high returns price to the 157.55 range low
Break of 157.55 and the Asia higher-lows trendline exposes the 157.42 Asian low
London open in ~2h, US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC; FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating below Asian high · RSI 56 · price 157.684
Break of prior-day high, then range 157.55–157.76.
USD/JPY cleared the 157.64 prior high at the Tokyo open and printed a 157.76 Asian high, with the yen still soft into the Fed/BoJ week. Late Asia is compressing between the 157.55 swing lows and the Asian high, while the rising support line from yesterday's 156.93 low stays intact. RSI(14) is neutral near 56 and price sits above both EMAs ahead of London open.
Support: 157.64, 157.55, 157.42
Resistance: 157.76, 158.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 157.76 Asian high resumes the HH chain and opens the 158.00 round number
Failure to hold the 157.55 swing lows puts the 157.64 prior high retest at risk and exposes the 157.42 asia low near the day-rally fib 38.2%
A break of the rising support line from 156.93 shifts the read to a deeper correction
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
Lower highs off the 157.76 session high; swing low 157.55 holding.
The Tokyo open extended the London–NY grind from 156.93 to a 157.76 session high on firm USD into the FOMC, but every bounce since has topped out lower, the latest at 157.64. Late Asian hours have price compressed above the 157.55 swing low, near the 50% fib of the 157.37–157.76 leg, with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 157.55, 157.42
Resistance: 157.64, 157.76
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.55 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 157.42 Asian low
A close back above the 157.64 lower high reopens the 157.76 session high
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could break the range ahead of Wednesday's FOMC
05:17 UTC
Uptrend over 24h, pulling back in late Asia · RSI 41 · price 157.559
Lower highs off the Asian high, holding the 157.55 floor.
Late in the Asia session, the pullback from the 157.76 Asian high has printed lower highs at 157.73 and 157.64. Price is sitting on the 157.55 intraday low, which is also the 61.8% retracement of the Asia leg and roughly the ema50. The 24h structure of higher lows from 156.93 is intact on a firm USD into FOMC, and RSI(14) at 41 shows no extreme.
Support: 157.548, 157.50, 157.421
Resistance: 157.635, 157.759
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.55 intraday low exposes the 157.50 round number and the 157.42 Asian low, and breaks the Asia leg
A close above the 157.64 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 157.76 Asian high back in play
London open near 07:00 UTC and US durable goods at 12:30 UTC could reset the session range
FOMC on Wednesday could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, pullback within Asia range · RSI 46 · price 157.597
Lower high at 157.73 under 157.76 session high, testing Asian low.
The Tokyo open dip to the 157.42 tokyo low was bought into a 157.76 session high, clearing the 157.64 prior high as the yen stays soft into Fed/BoJ week. Since then, a lower high at 157.73 has formed and price has slipped back to the 61.8% fib near the 157.55 Asian low. Price is just below the EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 157.55, 157.42, 157.37
Resistance: 157.64, 157.73, 157.76
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 157.55 Asian low confirms a lower low and exposes the 157.42 tokyo low, then the 157.37 NY low
Reclaiming the 157.64 prior high and the lower-highs trendline at 157.73 reopens the 157.76 session high
US durable goods at 12:30 UTC and consumer confidence at 14:00 UTC are the last pre-FOMC data and could reset the intraday range
Fed decision Wed Oct 28 caps follow-through; USD/JPY is still holding the 157.20–157.50 former-support zone
04:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, Asia pullback under way · RSI 40 · price 157.561
Lower high at 157.73 beneath 157.76 asian high; testing 61.8% fib.
Asia session lifted through Monday's NY prior high at 157.64 to an asian high of 157.76 as the yen stayed soft into Fed/BoJ week, but a lower high at 157.73 has turned the session back down. Price is now testing the 61.8% fib of the Tokyo-open rally near 157.55. It is sitting on EMA50 below EMA20, with RSI(14) at 40.
Support: 157.55, 157.43, 157.38
Resistance: 157.64, 157.73, 157.76
What it said to watch
M15 close below 157.55 (61.8% fib) exposes the tokyo low at 157.43, then the ny low at 157.38
Reclaim of the 157.64 prior high would undo the lower-high sequence and put the 157.76 asian high back in focus
US durable goods at 12:30 UTC, the last data before FOMC, could materially shift this read
04:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, lower high in Asia · RSI 41 · price 157.583
Asian range 157.42–157.76, lower high at 157.73, price pressing the 157.56 swing low.
The dollar's pre-FOMC bounce carried into the Asia session. USD/JPY spiked from the 157.42 Asian low to a 157.76 session high, then printed a lower high at 157.73. Price has slipped back below Monday's NY prior high at 157.64 and sits at 157.58, near the 50% retrace of the Tokyo leg, on the EMA50 and just above the 157.56 swing low, with RSI(14) at 41.
Support: 157.556, 157.421, 157.375
Resistance: 157.641, 157.733, 157.759
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.56 swing low (61.8% of the Tokyo leg) exposes the 157.42 Asian low, then the 157.38 NY low
Reclaim of the 157.64 prior high puts the 157.73 lower high and 157.76 session high back in play; a break of the lower-high trendline negates the stall read
London open in ~30 min typically tests the Asian range edges
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC; FOMC Wed could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below Asian high · RSI 52 · price 157.642
Higher high from 157.42, now a tight range with a lower high under 157.76.
Monday's broad yen weakness carried into Asia, with USD/JPY lifting from the 157.42 Asian low at the Tokyo open to a 157.759 Asian high before stalling. Price is now compressing on Monday's NY prior high at 157.64, holding above the 157.556 swing low but printing a lower high at 157.733, with RSI(14) flat near 52.
Support: 157.641, 157.556, 157.421
Resistance: 157.733, 157.759
What it said to watch
A close below the 157.556 swing low, near the 61.8% of the Asian leg, exposes the 157.42 Asian low
Clearance of the 157.733 lower high and the 157.759 Asian high resumes the higher-high sequence
London open in about 3h, then US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Wednesday's FOMC, could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below Asia high · RSI 52 · price 157.636
Higher lows from 156.86 intact; late-Asia compression 157.56–157.73.
Monday's broad dollar rebound into the FOMC carried USD/JPY to a 157.759 Asia high after the Tokyo-open dip to the 157.421 tokyo low drew buyers, keeping the higher-low chain from 156.86 and the rising support intact. Late in the Asia session price is compressing between the 157.556 swing low (61.8% of the Tokyo leg) and a 157.733 lower high, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 157.556, 157.421, 157.375
Resistance: 157.733, 157.759, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.759 asia high resumes the advance and opens the 158.00 round number
Break of the 157.556 swing low exposes the 157.421 tokyo low and the rising support near 157.45
Loss of the 157.375 ny low breaks the higher-low sequence from Monday
London open in ~3h, then US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC, could shift this read ahead of Wednesday's FOMC
Higher low at 157.56 after Tokyo leg; compressing 157.56–157.73 under 157.76 session high.
Tokyo opened with a dip to the 157.42 Asian low, then ran 34 pips to a 157.76 session high, extending the yen-weak, short-USD-covering rally above the 157.20–157.57 cap. Since then price has compressed between the 157.56 pullback low, near the 61.8% of the Tokyo leg fib, and 157.73, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 157.56, 157.42, 157.37
Resistance: 157.76, 158.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 157.56 pullback low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low sequence, putting the 157.42 Asian low back in play
A sustained break of the 157.76 session high opens the 158.00 round number
Loss of 157.42 exposes the 157.37 NY low from Monday's afternoon pullback
US durable goods and Consumer Confidence in NY hours, then FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asia broke NY high; HL at 61.8% now pressing session high.
Mid-Asia session, USDJPY cleared Monday's NY prior high at 157.641 from the 157.421 asian low and set a session high at 157.759, extending a third up day as the yen stays soft into Fed/BoJ week. The pullback held at the 157.556 swing low near the 61.8% retracement and price is back near 157.71 testing the high, RSI(14) around 68.
Support: 157.641, 157.556, 157.421
Resistance: 157.759, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.759 session high extends the higher-high chain and opens the 158.00 round number
Failure to hold 157.556 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 157.421 asian low back in play
Slip back under the 157.641 prior high turns the Asia breakout into a false break
London open in ~3.5h, US durable goods today; FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tokyo breakout above Monday's NY high, consolidating below session high.
Tokyo session cleared Monday's NY prior high at 157.64 and printed a session high of 157.76 as USD short-covering into the FOMC extended. The pullback held the 157.56 swing low near the 61.8% retrace of the leg up from the 157.42 Asia low, and price is consolidating just above the prior high with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 157.64, 157.556, 157.421
Resistance: 157.759, 158.00
What it said to watch
Close back below the 157.64 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 157.56 swing low breaks the rising-lows trendline and the HH/HL chain
Clearance of the 157.76 session high opens the 158.00 round number
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Wednesday's FOMC could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above Monday high, HL chain holding.
Broad USD firmness into the FOMC carried into Tuesday's Asia session: after an early dip to the asian low at 157.421, price cleared the Monday high at 157.641 and printed a 157.759 session high. The pullback held the swing low at 157.556, the 61.8% of the Asian leg, and price is pressing the highs again with RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 157.641, 157.556, 157.421
Resistance: 157.759, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the monday high at 157.641 would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the swing low at 157.556 breaks the higher-low chain; asian low at 157.421 is next
Close above the 157.759 session high opens the 158.00 round number
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Wednesday's FOMC could materially shift this read
Asia session broke above Monday NY high; higher low at 157.556 holding.
Mid-Asia session: USD/JPY dipped to an asia low of 157.42 at the Tokyo open, then broke the Monday NY prior high at 157.64 to a session high of 157.76 as JPY softened for a third day. The pullback held a swing low at 157.556, near the 61.8% of the Asia rally, along a rising Asia trendline. RSI(14) is 62, no extreme.
Support: 157.64, 157.556, 157.42
Resistance: 157.759, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 157.64 prior high puts price back inside Monday's range
Failure to hold 157.556 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low chain and the Asia trendline
Clean break of 157.76 session high opens the 158.00 round number
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Wednesday's FOMC could materially shift this read
Higher lows; Asia broke NY high, now retesting it.
Mid-Asia session, the pair cleared Monday's NY prior high at 157.64 and tagged a 157.76 session high, extending the risk-on yen weakness ahead of the Fed and BoJ. The pullback held the 157.56 swing low near the 61.8% fib of the leg from the 157.42 Asian low, and price is now holding just above 157.64 with rising lows intact.
Support: 157.64, 157.556, 157.421
Resistance: 157.759, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.64 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 157.56 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 157.42 Asian low
Close above the 157.76 session high opens the 158.00 round number
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Wednesday's FOMC could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 62 · price 157.635
Early in the Tokyo session, price pushed through yesterday's NY prior high at 157.64 to a 157.76 session high as risk-on yen weakness carried over. It then retraced about 61.8% of the Asian leg to a 157.56 pullback low and is back testing the prior high from above. Higher lows at 157.38 and the 157.42 Tokyo low keep the intraday uptrend intact, with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 157.556, 157.421
Resistance: 157.641, 157.759, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.56 pullback low exposes the 157.42 Tokyo low
Failure to hold 157.42 breaks the higher-low chain and the uptrend read
Close above the 157.76 session high opens the path to the 158.00 round number
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC, then FOMC Wed and BoJ Fri, could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 157.375; Monday's high broken in Tokyo, now being retested.
Buyers absorbed a dip to the 157.42 tokyo low at the Tokyo open. Price then cleared Monday's NY prior high at 157.64 to a 157.76 session high as risk-on kept JPY soft. It now sits back on 157.64 near the 38.2% of the Tokyo leg, with the higher-lows line from the 157.375 swing low intact and RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 157.64, 157.42, 157.375
Resistance: 157.76, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.64 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break, back inside Monday's range
Loss of the 157.42 tokyo low breaks the higher-lows line from the 157.375 swing low
Clearance of the 157.76 session high opens the 158.00 round number
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Wednesday's Fed decision could reset the intraday range
01:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since Monday NY · RSI 63 · price 157.687
Tokyo-open breakout above Monday's 157.64 high, first pullback held.
Demand absorbed the dip to the 157.42 tokyo low at the Tokyo open, and the pair cleared Monday's 157.64 prior high to a 157.76 session high, extending the risk-on yen softness from Monday. The first pullback dipped through the prior high to 157.58, near the 50% retrace of the leg, and closed back above. RSI(14) at about 63 is not stretched, with the higher lows intact.
Support: 157.64, 157.58, 157.42
Resistance: 157.76, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.64 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.58 50% retrace exposes the 157.42 tokyo low
A break of the 157.42 tokyo low snaps the higher lows chain
A close above the 157.76 session high opens the 158.00 round number
US Durables (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) later today, then FOMC Wednesday, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain; Asian session broke above Monday's high.
The Tokyo open dipped to the 157.42 asian low and then rallied through Monday's 157.64 prior high to a 157.76 session high, extending Monday's risk-on, yen-weak bid. Higher lows at the 157.375 ny low and 157.42 hold the rising trendline. RSI(14) near 63 is not stretched.
Support: 157.64, 157.42, 157.375
Resistance: 157.76, 158.00
What it said to watch
Close back below the 157.64 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 157.42 asian low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Close above the 157.76 session high puts the 158.00 round number in play
FOMC on Wed (18:00 UTC) and BoJ on Fri could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Uptrend, fresh session high · RSI 67 · price 157.708
Higher lows from 157.375; Monday high broken in Tokyo.
Buyers stepped in at the 157.421 swing low near the Tokyo open. Price then broke Monday's 157.641 prior high to a 157.736 session high as risk-on Yen weakness extends. Higher lows from the 157.375 NY low remain intact, and RSI(14) near 67 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 157.641, 157.421, 157.375
Resistance: 157.736, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.641 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 157.421 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 157.375 NY low back in view
Acceptance above the 157.736 session high leaves the 158.00 round number as the next reference
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and the FOMC decision Wednesday could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Uptrend, testing prior high · RSI 64 · price 157.642
Higher low at 157.42 above NY swing low, marginal break of Monday high.
The Tokyo-open dip held the asia low at 157.42, then reversed to a session high at 157.665, just above Monday's NY prior high at 157.64 as risk-on Yen softness carries over. The higher lows above the NY swing low at 157.37 keep the HH/HL chain intact, and RSI(14) near 64 shows no extreme.
Support: 157.553, 157.421, 157.374
Resistance: 157.665, 158.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 157.64 prior high would turn the session-high poke into a false break
Pullbacks that hold the fib 38.2 near 157.55 keep the move off the Tokyo-open dip intact
Failure to hold the 157.42 asia low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 157.37 NY swing low
Acceptance above the 157.665 session high opens the 158.00 round number
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Wednesday's FOMC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from the 157.37 NY low; early Tokyo above the Asian range top.
Monday's risk-on yen selling and USD short-covering lifted the pair from 156.65 to a 157.64 NY high, and higher lows have held since. Early Tokyo dipped to the 157.42 asia low, then cleared the Asian range top and the 157.57 prior cap. Price is now pressing the prior high, with RSI(14) at 61 and no stretch.
Support: 157.57, 157.42, 157.37
Resistance: 157.64, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.64 prior high extends the HH chain toward the 158.00 round number
A slip back below the 157.57 prior cap returns price to Monday's 157.37–157.64 range
Loss of the 157.42 asia low and 157.37 ny low breaks the higher-lows trendline
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift this read ahead of Wednesday's FOMC
Range 157.38–157.64 above the 23.6% fib of Monday's rally.
USD/JPY has held a 157.38–157.64 range since the Monday high, after a near-100-pip climb off the 156.65 Asia low on USD short-covering and risk-on yen selling. Price held above the 23.6% fib, and the Tokyo-open dip to the 157.42 tokyo low was bought back within one bar. Price is now pressing the 157.59 range cap again, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 157.42, 157.375, 157.24
Resistance: 157.59, 157.64
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.64 monday high breaks the range and clears the 157.57 cap flagged in the digest
Loss of the 157.42 tokyo low, then the 157.375 ny low, would turn the range into a deeper pullback toward the 38.2% fib at 157.24
Third failure at the 157.59 range cap during the Asia session would confirm it as near-term resistance
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Wednesday's FOMC could materially shift this read
157.38–157.64 range since NY; lower high at 157.59.
Monday's rebound from the 156.65 Asian low peaked at the 157.64 Monday high in NY, as USD shorts were trimmed into the FOMC, and price has since held a 157.38–157.64 range. Tokyo open produced a rejection from a 157.59 session high (a lower high) back to the 157.42 session low, with RSI(14) near 45 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 157.42, 157.375, 157.24
Resistance: 157.59, 157.64
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.42 session low exposes the 157.38 ny low, then the 157.24 swing low near the 38.2% fib of Monday's rebound
Recovery through the 157.59 session high and 157.64 Monday high breaks the lower-high sequence
Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and the Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight 157.43–157.59 band in early Asia with higher lows above the NY pullback low.
USD short-covering into FOMC lifted the pair from the 156.65 Asian low through the 157.20–157.50 pivot during London. NY set the monday high at 157.64, and the pullback held at the 157.37 ny low near the 23.6% fib. Early Tuesday Asia is compressing between the 157.43 swing low and the 157.59 asia high, with higher lows, RSI(14) flat near 51 and price hugging both EMAs.
Support: 157.431, 157.374, 157.243
Resistance: 157.593, 157.641, 157.79
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.64 monday high opens the 157.79 week open
Failure to hold the 157.43 swing low and the higher-lows line exposes the 157.37 ny low
Break of the 157.24 london low would undo the London breakout and reopen the 38.2% fib near 157.26
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read