21:03 UTC
Downtrend from July peak, stalling into a range · RSI 46 · price 157.538
Lower highs since 163.99; higher low at 156.08; 156.08–159.03 range.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since the late-July 163.99 peak, with the September drop bottoming at the 152.89 sept low. Since late September the pair has rotated inside a 156.08–159.03 range, capped by a flattening, slowly declining EMA(50) near 158.09. Tokyo yen buying on Oct 22–23 pushed price to the 156.08 range low, the first higher low of the sequence. Roughly half of that drop has been reclaimed, leaving price at the 61.8% retracement of the sept drop fib near 157.52, with RSI mid-cycle around 46.
Support: 156.08, 155.23, 152.89
Resistance: 158.09, 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 159.03 range high breaks the lower highs line and opens the 160.39 sept high, near the 160 area where intervention risk is flagged
- Repeated rejection at the ema50 (~158.09) keeps the range read intact below the lower highs line
- Daily close below the 156.08 range low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 155.23 aug low, then the 152.89 sept low
- FOMC Wed Oct 28 and the BoJ decision plus Ueda presser Fri Oct 30 could materially shift this read