21:04 UTC
Lower highs since July, flat range since late September · RSI 51 · price 157.949
156.1–159.0 range after a lower-high decline from the 163.99 July peak.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs from the 163.99 July peak through the 160.39 Sep high, but the 152.89 Sep low has held. Since late September price has ranged between the 159.03 range top and the 156 area, roughly inside the 38.2%–50% retracement of the July–September decline. Last week's yen bid on intervention fears and risk-off undercut the range to the 156.08 Oct low before being retraced, and price now sits just under a flattening EMA(50) near 158.00 with RSI neutral around 51.
Support: 156.08, 155.23, 152.89
Resistance: 158.00, 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
- A daily close above the 159.03 range top opens the path to the 160.39 Sep high, near the 160 area flagged for MoF intervention risk
- Failure to hold the 156.08 Oct low would reopen the 155.23 Aug low and the 152.89 Sep low
- Daily closes holding above the EMA(50) near 158.00 would shift trade toward the upper half of the range
- Thu 12:30 UTC core PCE/GDP and the Fri 03:00 UTC BoJ decision plus Ueda presser could materially shift this read