Higher lows Mon–Wed; post-FOMC drop has breached the higher-low line.
The week opened at 157.03 after Friday's 156.08 low and printed a higher low each day: 156.65 on Monday, 157.42 on Tuesday and the 157.65 swing low in Wednesday's London session. London-NY hours drove each leg up to a 158.35 high. That fomc high came on the Fed decision and reversed within the hour as USD sold the fact on Warsh's hawkish hold, a false break of 158.00. Price is now back below the ema20 and the higher-low line, sitting on the 38.2% fib near 157.70 with RSI(14) down to 42.
Support: 157.65, 157.42, 157.03
Resistance: 157.90, 158.04, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.65 swing low breaks the week's higher-low sequence and exposes the tue low at 157.42
Loss of 157.42 opens the 157.03 weekly open, where Monday's opening gap sits
Recovery above the ema20 near 157.90 and the 158.04 prior high would neutralise the post-FOMC rejection; the 158.35 fomc high remains the cap
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision Fri 03:00 UTC are the next JPY risks
Higher lows since Monday; post-Fed pullback testing the higher-low line.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows since Monday's Asia low at 156.65, with the London and NY sessions driving each push to a new week high. The Fed's hawkish two-dissent hold spiked price to the fed high at 158.35, but Warsh's 'tightening is working' line knocked it back about 60 pips to the post-fed low at 157.75. Price is now back under EMA(20) near 157.94 with RSI(14) near 45. The pullback sits on the higher-low line from Tuesday's and Wednesday's lows, close to the 38.2% retracement of the week advance fib (157.70), with the wed low at 157.65 just beneath.
Support: 157.75, 157.65, 157.42
Resistance: 158.00, 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close below the wed low at 157.65 breaks the higher-low line and the week's higher-low sequence, exposing the tue low at 157.42
Reclaim of the 158.00 round number and EMA(20) puts the fed high at 158.35 and the 158.60 range top back in focus
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision Fri 03:00 UTC are the next JPY-side risks
Higher lows since Monday; failed push above 158.00 leaves price back on rising support.
From the 157.03 weekly open, Monday's Asia dip to 156.65 marked the low, and the London and NY sessions drove the leg through 157.50. Tuesday and Wednesday then built a series of higher lows above EMA(20). The FOMC hold with two hawkish dissents spiked the pair to a 158.35 week high, but Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser reversed it back below 158.00 and the ema20 near 157.97. Price now rests on EMA(50) around 157.80 with RSI(14) back at 47, just above the day low at 157.65 and the 38.2% retracement of the week's impulse near 157.70.
Support: 157.65, 157.42, 157.03
Resistance: 157.97, 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.65 day low and the higher-lows line (~157.73) breaks this week's sequence and exposes the 157.42 tue low and 50% retrace near 157.50
H1 close back above the ema20 / 158.00 re-exposes the 158.35 week high and the 158.60 range top
A move back toward the 157.03 weekly open would retrace most of the week's gain
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision with Ueda's presser Fri 03:00 UTC are the next JPY-side risk
Higher lows since Monday; pullback testing rising trendline.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows since Monday's 156.65 Asia session low, with most of the week's gains built during Monday's London and NY sessions above the 157.03 weekly open. The hawkish Fed hold with two hike dissents spiked the pair to the 158.35 FOMC high, but the move was rejected within the hour. Price is back below EMA(20) near 157.98 and pressing the rising trendline, with RSI(14) cooled to ~48 and the 38.2% fib at 157.70 sitting just above Wednesday's London low at 157.65.
Support: 157.65, 157.42, 157.03
Resistance: 157.98, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close below the rising trendline and the 157.65 wed low would break this week's higher-low sequence
Failure to hold the 157.42 tue low exposes the 61.8% fib near 157.30 and the 157.03 weekly open
Recovery above EMA(20) at 157.98 and a close through the 158.35 FOMC high would negate the rejection
Thu 12:30 UTC US GDP/core PCE, then Tokyo CPI and the Fri BoJ decision, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday, new week high wicked back.
USD/JPY has built a clean sequence of higher lows since Monday's 156.65 Asia-session low. It reclaimed the 157.03 weekly open at Monday's London open and cleared 157.80 on Tuesday, and the hawkish Fed hold with two hike dissents then drove a spike to a fresh week high at 158.35. That FOMC bar was rejected back to 158.00, but its 157.86 low held the higher-lows trendline. Price now sits on EMA(20) just under Wednesday's Asia high at 158.04, with RSI(14) cooled to ~56, and Wednesday's London low at 157.65 sits near the 38.2% retrace of the week impulse.
Support: 157.86, 157.65, 157.03
Resistance: 158.04, 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close below the fomc low at 157.86 breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the london low at 157.65
Close above the 158.35 week high opens the path to the 158.60 range top
Failure to hold 157.65 puts the 157.03 weekly open back in focus
Warsh presser in progress, then Thu 12:30 UTC GDP and core PCE, could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's Asia low.
USD/JPY has climbed steadily from Monday's Asia low at 156.65 after a small gap up at the 157.03 weekly open. A firmer USD into the Fed and higher crude have weighed on JPY, and each session has printed a higher low. Wednesday's London dip held the 157.65 wed low, which aligns with the 38.2% fib of the week's leg, before buyers stepped in through the London-NY transition and broke the 158.04 prior high to a 158.28 week high. RSI(14) near 67 sits just under overbought, with price well above EMA(20).
Support: 158.04, 157.65, 157.03
Resistance: 158.28, 158.60
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the 158.04 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Break of the 157.65 wed low and the higher-low trendline would end the week's higher-low sequence
Extension above the 158.28 week high toward the 158.60 range top (UOB) brings MoF intervention rhetoric into play
17:03 UTC
Uptrend, fresh week high · RSI 61 · price 158.158
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's Asia low; 158.00 cleared.
USD/JPY has climbed steadily from Monday's Asia-session low at 156.65, gapping above Friday's close and printing a series of higher lows. It cleared 158.00 in the first hours of NY on Wednesday to reach a week high at 158.25. Wednesday's London-open dip held the 157.65 area, close to the 38.2% retracement of the week's leg, and EMA(20) has caught each pullback while RSI(14) sits near 61 rather than stretched. The advance tracks a firmer USD into the Fed and higher crude weighing on the yen.
Support: 158.04, 157.65, 157.42
Resistance: 158.25, 158.60
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's 18:30 UTC press conference, about an hour away, could materially shift this read
Holding above the prior high at 158.04 keeps the 158.00 breakout intact; a slip back below it would mark a false break
An H1 close above the 158.60 range top would extend the breakout into the zone where MoF intervention rhetoric has tended to intensify
Failure to hold the wed low at 157.65 and the higher-low trendline would expose the tue low at 157.42
Tokyo CPI (Thu 23:30 UTC) and the BoJ decision (Fri 03:00 UTC) are the next yen catalysts after the Fed
16:02 UTC
Uptrend, fresh week high into FOMC · RSI 65 · price 158.221
Higher lows since Monday; 158.00 broken in NY.
Since Monday's weekly open at 157.03, price has printed a steady higher-low trendline from the 156.65 Asia low. The dominant legs came in London/NY hours, and today's NY session cleared the 158.00 psych level to a 158.25 week high, with RSI(14) near 65 and price holding above both EMAs. The firmer USD into the Fed and higher crude underpin the move, and the London-open dip held at 157.65 (wed low), close to the 38.2% retracement of the week impulse.
Support: 158.00, 157.652, 157.034
Resistance: 158.249, 158.60
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the 158.00 psych level would turn the breakout into a false break
Break of the 157.65 wed low and the higher-low trendline ends the sequence; the weekly open at 157.03 is next structural reference
Extension through the week high toward the 158.60 range top brings MoF intervention rhetoric into play; BoJ Fri 03:00 UTC
15:02 UTC
Uptrend, fresh week high · RSI 63 · price 158.191
Higher lows since Monday, breakout above 158.04.
USD/JPY has printed a steady run of higher lows since Monday's Asia-session low at 156.65, climbing from the weekly open mainly in London and NY hours on a firm dollar into the Fed and higher crude. Wednesday's London dip held the 157.65 swing low near the 38.2% retracement, and the first hours of NY broke the 158.04 prior high to a fresh week high at 158.23. Price sits above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 63, short of overbought.
Support: 158.04, 157.65, 157.03
Resistance: 158.23, 158.60
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read within hours
H1 close back below the 158.04 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 157.65 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and the week's sequence
Extension toward the 158.60 range top brings MoF intervention rhetoric into play
A return under the 157.03 weekly open would unwind the week's gains; Tokyo CPI (Thu 23:30 UTC) and BoJ (Fri 03:00 UTC) add event risk
Higher lows since Monday; Asia high at 158.04 cleared.
The V-shaped rebound from Friday's 156.08 low has built a clean higher-low sequence since Monday, with the main leg higher running through Monday's London-NY transition on a firm USD. Wednesday's London-open dip held the 157.65 london low, in line with the 23.6% of the rebound. The run into the NY session cleared the 158.04 prior high to a 158.13 week high ahead of the FOMC. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 63, firm but short of overbought, and the 158.60 range top sits above.
Support: 158.04, 157.65, 157.42
Resistance: 158.13, 158.60
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a dovish lean on December puts the 157.65-157.42 zone back in play
H1 close back below the 158.04 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 157.65 london low breaks the higher lows; below the 157.42 tuesday low the rebound structure is in question
Range top at 158.60 is the next level to watch for rejection or break
BoJ decision and Ueda presser Fri ~03:00 UTC, with Tokyo CPI late Thursday, are the next yen-side risk
Higher lows from 156.65 week low; tight 157.65–158.04 range at the highs.
USD/JPY has climbed from the 156.65 week low set in Monday's Asia session. Monday's London and NY sessions drove most of the advance, and a late-Tuesday push printed the 158.04 week high as the USD firmed into today's FOMC. Since then the pair has flattened into a 157.65–158.04 consolidation under the 158.00 psych level. Today's London-open dip to the 157.65 London low held the higher-low line, just below the 23.6% retrace of the week rally near 157.71. Price is back above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) cooled to the mid-50s as the advance stalls rather than reverses.
Support: 157.88, 157.65, 157.03
Resistance: 158.04, 158.60
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's 18:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read; a hawkish surprise puts the 158.60 range top in play
An H1 close above the 158.04 week high breaks the consolidation and opens the path toward the 158.60 range top
Failure to hold the 157.65 London low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 50% retrace of the week rally near 157.34, then the 157.03 weekly open
H1 closes back below EMA(20) near 157.88 would extend the sideways phase toward the lower end of the range
Higher lows since Monday, flattening into a 157.65–158.04 band.
The Monday rally from the 156.65 Asia-session low ran through London and stair-stepped higher lows into a 158.04 week high in Wednesday's Asia session, retracing the Oct 22-23 yen-buying drop on a firm dollar and oil above $100. Since Tuesday's NY session the advance has flattened into a 157.65–158.04 band, with price hugging EMA(20) near 157.85. RSI(14) has eased to ~54 after peaking lower on the 158.04 push than on Tuesday's London high, a mild bearish divergence.
Support: 157.85, 157.65, 157.03
Resistance: 158.04, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.65 wed low breaks the rising support line and the higher-low sequence, exposing the monday rally fib 38.2% near 157.51 and the 157.03 weekly open
H1 close above the 158.04 week high opens the path to the 158.60 range top
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI (Thu 23:30 UTC) and the BoJ decision (Fri ~03:00 UTC) are the next yen-side risks
Higher lows from week low; flat 157.65–158.04 consolidation since Tuesday.
USDJPY has climbed roughly 140 pips from the 156.65 week low set in Monday's Asia session. Monday's London and NY sessions drove most of this week's rally, as firm US data and pre-FOMC USD demand reversed last week's yen bid. Since late Tuesday the rally has stalled into a 157.65–158.04 consolidation, with RSI(14) back near 52 and price hugging EMA(20) at 157.86. Today's London-open dip to the 157.65 day low held above the higher-lows trendline from the week low and recovered back into the range.
Support: 157.86, 157.65, 157.03
Resistance: 158.04, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.04 week high breaks the consolidation; the 158.60 range top is the next structure above
Failure to hold the 157.65 day low and the higher-lows trendline would mark the first lower-low since Monday
A deeper pullback would bring the 50% retracement of this week's rally near 157.34, then the 157.03 weekly open, into view
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 GMT and the BoJ decision Fri ~03:00 GMT add further event risk
USD/JPY has retraced the 156.08 low from last Friday's Asia session, with the Monday leg off 156.65 carrying through Tuesday's London and NY sessions on firm USD into the Fed before topping at the 158.04 week high after the NY close. Since then it has compressed in a 157.65–158.04 band, slipping just under the EMA(20) near 157.87 while RSI(14) eases into the high-40s and fails to confirm the latest high. The higher-low sequence from Monday is still intact, with today's London dip to 157.65 holding above Tuesday's 157.55 lows.
Support: 157.65, 157.55, 157.03
Resistance: 157.87, 158.04, 158.60
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below 157.55 (tue low and 38.2% of the Monday leg) breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 157.03 weekly open
H1 close back above the ema20 at 157.87 and then the 158.04 week high reopens the 158.60 range top
Continued failure to clear 158.04 alongside softer RSI keeps the consolidation read in place
Higher lows from Monday intact; lower highs forming under the week high.
USD/JPY climbed from Monday's Asia-session low at 156.65 to a 158.04 week high late Tuesday, with London and NY hours carrying the rally on firm US data and pre-FOMC dollar demand. Since then a string of lower highs under 158.00 and a London-open slide have taken price below EMA(20) to 157.69, sitting on EMA(50) and the 23.6% fib of the rally, with RSI(14) near 41 after a bearish divergence at the week high. Tuesday's 157.55 low remains the last higher low, with the weekly open at 157.03 further below.
Support: 157.55, 157.03
Resistance: 157.82, 158.04, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.55 tuesday low breaks the week's higher-low sequence and exposes the 157.34 fib 50% level
Recovery above EMA(20) at 157.82 and a close beyond the 158.04 week high would put the 158.60 range top back in view
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Thursday's US PCE and Tokyo CPI, then the BoJ decision Fri 03:00 UTC, are the next event risks for the structure
The week's impulse ran from Monday's Asia low at 156.65 to a 158.04 week high in Wednesday's Asia session. Most of the gain came in London-NY hours on Monday and Tuesday, as high oil and a firm dollar into the FOMC weighed on the yen. Over the last 14 bars price has been capped below 158.00 and has slipped under the ema20, with RSI(14) back near 47. It now sits on the latest higher low at 157.75, which coincides with the 157.80 pivot flagged in the digest. The 157.51 fib 38.2 sits beneath it, and the weekly open at 157.03 frames the deeper part of the move.
Support: 157.75, 157.51, 157.03
Resistance: 157.88, 158.04
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.75 higher low breaks the rising trendline and opens the fib 38.2 at 157.51
Reclaiming the ema20 at 157.88 and closing above the 158.04 week high resumes the higher-high sequence
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Powell at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
BoJ decision Fri 03:00 UTC and Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC; MoF rhetoric escalates as price approaches 158–160
A break back below the weekly open at 157.03 would erase the week's impulse
Higher lows since Monday low, compressing under week high.
USD/JPY has climbed about 140 pips from Monday's 156.65 Asia low, with most of the advance in Monday's London and NY sessions as firm US data and high oil weighed on the yen. Since Tuesday's London session the move has compressed into a 157.75–158.04 band, with the week high capping Wednesday's Asian push and demand stepping in twice near the 157.80 UOB pivot. Price sits just above EMA(20) with RSI(14) flattening near 53. The higher-lows trendline from Tuesday remains intact.
Support: 157.80, 157.748, 157.584
Resistance: 158.038
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 157.75 today low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 157.58 swing low
Failure to hold the 157.58 swing low puts the 38.2% retracement of the Monday-low-to-week-high fib near 157.51 in play
Sustained trade above the 158.04 week high extends the uptrend, with MoF intervention rhetoric likely to intensify toward 160
The FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Powell's press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday, flat Asian range under week high.
USD/JPY has climbed steadily from Monday's Asia dip at 156.65 to a 158.04 week high early Wednesday, with London and NY sessions driving each leg on a firm USD and oil-driven yen weakness, well clear of the 157.03 weekly open. Since the week high, price has held a tight 157.75–158.00 Asian range and slipped back under EMA(20) and the rising tl from Tuesday's lows, with RSI(14) cooling to around 50. The 157.58 swing low and the 38.2% fib near 157.51 mark the first structural tests below the Asia low.
Support: 157.75, 157.58, 157.03
Resistance: 158.04
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.58 swing low breaks the week's higher-low sequence and exposes the 50% fib near 157.34
Sustained trade back above EMA(20) and through the 158.04 week high resumes the uptrend read
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Powell presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
BoJ decision Fri ~03:00 UTC and MoF intervention rhetoric as price approaches 160
Higher lows from 156.08; compressing under 158.04.
USD/JPY has climbed steadily from Monday's 156.65 low, well above the 157.03 weekly open, as a firmer USD into FOMC and oil-driven yen weakness extended the recovery from Friday's 156.08 low. The advance peaked at a 158.04 week high into Wednesday's Asian open, but RSI(14) did not confirm that higher high and has eased to ~51. Price is now inside a 157.79–158.04 band, slipping just under EMA(20) near 157.86 and the rising trendline from Monday's low.
Support: 157.79, 157.55, 157.03
Resistance: 157.86, 158.04
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 157.79 asia low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the tuesday low at 157.55, near the 38.2% fib of the Mon low–week high move
Deeper retracement toward the 157.03 weekly open would unwind most of the week's rally
Reclaiming EMA(20) and a close above the 158.04 week high resumes the uptrend out of the compression
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Powell's presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI late Thu and BoJ on Fri are the next yen-specific risks
Higher lows since Monday, compressing under the week high.
USD/JPY has stepped higher since Monday's 157.03 weekly open, adding to last week's recovery from the 156.08 low. Each pullback has held above the rising trendline from Monday's 157.24 low, and the yen stayed under pressure on Tuesday's US durables beat, a firm USD into the Fed and oil near $100. The Asian session tagged a 158.04 week high, then pulled back to the 157.79 swing low, and price is now coiling in a 15-pip band just above the ema20 with RSI(14) near 61 and hourly ranges contracting.
Support: 157.89, 157.79, 157.03
Resistance: 158.04, 158.50
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.04 week high extends the higher-high sequence, with the 158.50 round number next in view
Loss of the 157.79 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low structure
An H1 close back below the ema20 at 157.89 signals the stall under 158.00 is turning into a pullback
A deeper retracement toward the 157.03 weekly open would retrace most of the week's gain
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Thu core PCE and Fri BoJ decision with the Ueda presser carry follow-through risk
Higher lows since Monday, tight range below week high.
USD/JPY has climbed steadily from Monday's Asia-session low at 156.65, printing higher lows on each London and NY dip as a firm USD, oil near $100 and improving risk appetite weighed on the yen. Price now sits about 85 pips above the 157.03 weekly open. Since late NY yesterday the advance has compressed into a 157.79–158.04 band just above the 158.00 round number, with price hugging EMA(20) and RSI(14) flattening near 54 as momentum cools. Pullbacks have stayed well above the 38.2% fib of Monday's rally (157.51), and the Tuesday low at 157.58 is the last swing in the higher-lows sequence.
Support: 157.79, 157.58, 157.03
Resistance: 158.00, 158.04
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 157.79 Asia low and the higher-lows trendline breaks the sequence, exposing the Tuesday low at 157.58
H1 close above the 158.04 week high extends the four-day run; MoF intervention rhetoric tends to intensify as price nears 160
Loss of the Tuesday low at 157.58 and the 38.2% fib at 157.51 would shift the read toward a deeper retracement of Monday's rally
Higher lows since Monday, compressing under the week high.
USD/JPY has printed steady higher lows since Monday's Asia-session low at 156.65. It cleared the weekly open at 157.03 and ground into the 158.00 area through Monday and Tuesday's London and NY sessions, helped by firm US data (Durable Goods 1.8% vs 0.6%) and a soft yen tone. Momentum has faded at the 158.04 week high, with hourly ranges compressing and RSI(14) near 59; the early-Asia dip to the 157.79 asia low tagged the rising trendline and recovered, keeping price above EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 157.79, 157.58, 157.03
Resistance: 158.04, 158.50
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the rising trendline and the 157.79 asia low would break the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 157.58 swing low exposes the 38.2% week leg fib near 157.51 and the weekly open at 157.03
Acceptance above the 158.04 week high opens the path toward the 158.50 round number
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC today (presser 18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI (Thu 23:30 UTC) and BoJ (Fri 03:00 UTC) are the next yen-side risk events
01:03 UTC
Uptrend since Monday, momentum slowing near highs · RSI 56 · price 157.864
Higher lows off 156.65, Asia pullback from week high testing rising trendline.
USD/JPY has climbed steadily from Monday's 156.65 Asia low, printing higher lows through the London and NY sessions. The climb came as the AI risk-off behind Thursday's slide to 156.08 faded and the dollar firmed into the FOMC. The advance met rejection at a 158.04 week high early in Asia, just shy of Thursday's 158.10 prior high, and the pullback has held the 157.79 Asia low near the 157.80 pivot and the rising trendline from Tuesday's lows. Price is sitting on EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 56, with momentum softer than on Tuesday's push.
Support: 157.79, 157.58, 157.03
Resistance: 158.04, 158.10
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.79 Asia low and the rising trendline exposes Tuesday's 157.58 swing low
A deeper retrace toward the 38.2% rebound fib near 157.29 and the 157.03 weekly open would break the higher-low sequence
Close above the 158.04 week high and 158.10 prior high extends the rebound beyond the window's range
Fed decision 18:00 UTC today and the 18:30 UTC press conference could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI (Oct 29 23:30 UTC) and the BoJ decision (Oct 30 ~03:00 UTC) are the next yen-side risk
Since dipping to 156.65 in Monday's Asia session, USD/JPY has stacked higher lows. The Monday rally ran through London and NY, and Tuesday's NY session cleared the 157.80 pivot as the yen stayed soft and USD firmed into FOMC. Early Asia printed a 158.04 week high, close to the 158.17 prior high that capped the window's start. RSI(14) is in the mid-60s, below its Monday peak, and hourly ranges are compressing while price rides the higher-lows line and holds above EMA(20).
Support: 157.70, 157.42, 157.03
Resistance: 158.04, 158.17
What it said to watch
H1 close below the higher-lows line (~157.95) and the 157.70 swing low would break the sequence of higher lows
Close above the 158.04 week high opens the path to the 158.17 prior high
Loss of the 157.42 tuesday low, near the 38.2% of the Monday rally, puts the 157.03 weekly open back in view
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC with presser at 18:30 could materially shift this read
MoF intervention rhetoric gains weight as price extends above 158.00