The three-week 157.50–158.60 range broke lower in the Oct 20-22 yen-buying burst to a month low at 156.08, but the breakdown did not hold and a sequence of higher lows has carried price back into the range. The post-Fed bar printed a rejection at 158.35 and closed back at 157.85 as USD eased on Warsh's 'tightening is working' line, leaving price on the rising support line with the swing low at 157.65 just below. ATR(14) near 29 pips has compressed from the selloff, and EMA20 and EMA50 are flat and converging just under price, so the range top at 158.60 and the prior high at 158.95 still cap the structure.
Support: 157.65, 157.21, 156.08
Resistance: 158.35, 158.60, 158.95
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 158.60 range top, which has capped since early October, would end the range read and expose the 158.95 prior high
A break below the 157.65 swing low and the rising support line would put the fib 50% at 157.21 back in play, with the 156.08 month low behind it
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~15.5h) could reprice December Fed hike odds and shift this read
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision plus Ueda presser Fri 03:00 UTC are the JPY-side risk into the range top
MoF intervention rhetoric toward 160 remains a cap above the 158.95 prior high
Higher lows since 156.075, retesting old 158.00-158.60 range.
USD/JPY spent most of the window boxed between 157.00 and the 158.60 prior high before yen buying broke the range lows to the 156.075 oct low. The V-shaped recovery since then has carried a clean higher-low sequence along the recovery trendline, helped by solid US data and a soft yen, and price is back above both EMAs, which have flattened together near 157.6. RSI near 72 and a contained ATR show a steady grind rather than an expansion, with price now pressing back into the old range ceiling.
Support: 157.652, 157.00, 156.075
Resistance: 158.599, 158.946
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh presser within the next bar could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 158.60 prior high clears the range ceiling and brings the 158.946 window high into view
Break of the recovery trendline and the 157.652 swing low ends the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 157.00 round number reopens the 156.075 oct low
BoJ decision and Ueda guidance on Friday, with Tokyo CPI on Thursday, are the next major yen risk
13:02 UTC
Recovery from Oct 22 low, stalling under prior range floor · RSI 63 · price 157.902
Higher lows since 156.08; price retesting the broken 157.8-158.0 range floor from below.
USDJPY spent most of the window in a 157.8-158.6 range. Risk-off yen buying broke the range floor and drove a slide to the 156.08 swing low on Oct 22. The V-shaped recovery since has printed steady higher lows on a firm USD and has now reached the 61.8% retracement of the 158.95 swing high to 156.08 decline. Price is capped just under the old range floor at 158.04, with ATR(14) contracting to around 29 pips and EMA20 and EMA50 converging near 157.60 ahead of today's FOMC decision.
Support: 157.55, 157.00, 156.08
Resistance: 158.04, 158.60, 158.95
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 158.04 range floor reclaims the old range and opens 158.60 range top, then the 158.95 swing high
Break below the 157.55 pullback low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 157.00 psych level
Loss of 157.00 puts the 156.08 swing low back in play
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser could materially shift this read
BoJ decision Friday ~03:00 UTC and Tokyo CPI Thursday add event risk to the retest
V-recovery from 156.08 stalling at 61.8% retrace below lower-highs line.
The risk-off flush to the 156.08 swing low has been fully reversed toward the 157.00-158.60 range. Firmer US data and December Fed-hike pricing lifted USD, while fading AI worries removed the yen's safe-haven bid. The rebound now sits at the 61.8% fib of the 158.95-156.08 decline, with the 158.05 swing high capping just under the descending lower-highs line from the window high. ATR(14) has contracted through the grind higher, EMA20 is converging on EMA50 from below, and price is only marginally above both.
Support: 157.55, 157.00, 156.08
Resistance: 158.05, 158.60, 158.95
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
H4 close above 158.05 and the lower-highs line opens the range top at 158.60
Failure to hold the 157.55 pivot low exposes the 157.00 range floor
Rising-lows line from 156.08 near 157.00 would mark a deeper unwind if broken
BoJ decision Fri 03:00 UTC and Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC are the next yen-side risk
05:02 UTC
Recovery leg, momentum fading near range top · RSI 66 · price 157.951
Higher lows from 156.08 swing low; lower highs capping since 158.95.
The break below the 157.55–158.60 multi-week range ran to a 156.08 swing low and then reversed. A higher low at 156.65 and a steady four-session climb have since put price back inside the range, helped by a firmer USD and oil-driven yen weakness ahead of today's FOMC. The recovery is now pressing into the 158.04 recovery high, where it meets the lower-highs line from 158.95, while ATR(14) has compressed to about 30 pips and EMA20 is converging on EMA50.
Support: 157.80, 156.65, 156.08
Resistance: 158.04, 158.60, 158.95
What it said to watch
H4 close above 158.04 and the lower-highs line reopens the 158.60 prior high and 158.95 window high
Loss of the 157.80 pivot exposes the 50% fib of the recovery leg near 157.06 and the 156.65 higher low
A break below the 156.08 swing low turns the false break into a confirmed lower-low sequence
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC today and BoJ Fri ~03:00 UTC could materially shift this read; MoF intervention rhetoric caps upside nearer 160
01:02 UTC
Recovering within a broad range after a failed breakdown · RSI 64 · price 157.946
Higher lows since 156.08, price back inside the 157.55-158.95 range.
USDJPY spent most of the window in a 157.55-158.95 range. The Oct 22-23 AI-related yen bid broke the range floor and drove price to the 156.08 swing low. Since then a steady run of higher lows, including 156.65, has pulled price back above the range floor and the 61.8% retracement of the 158.60-156.08 drop. That turns the breakdown into a false break, helped by a firmer dollar into FOMC. ATR has contracted from the selloff spike to around 31 pips, and price sits above both EMAs, though EMA20 has not yet crossed back over EMA50.
Support: 157.55, 156.65, 156.08
Resistance: 158.34, 158.60, 158.95
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 158.34 lower high clears the way to the 158.60 swing high, then the 158.95 range high
A drop back below the 157.55 range floor revives the breakdown read, with the 156.65 higher low next
Loss of the rebound higher-low trendline and 156.65 puts the 156.08 swing low back in focus
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC, Tokyo CPI Oct 29 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision ~03:00 UTC Oct 30 could materially shift this read
An H4 EMA20/EMA50 cross would confirm the recovery from the false break