Lower highs and lower lows from 58.59; basing in a 48.60-51.26 band.
Silver has printed a clean sequence of lower highs from 58.59 to 54.61, 51.26 and 50.55, and broke the old 52.66-54.6 range floor on the hawkish-Fed repricing and hot US data. Price is now consolidating between the 48.60 swing low and the 51.26 prior high. Monday's short-covering pop was rejected at the descending lower-high trendline near 50.55, and price is still below both EMA20 and EMA50, which remain bearishly stacked. ATR(14) near 790 pips is elevated rather than compressing, so the swings inside the band are wide.
Support: 48.599, 48.851
Resistance: 50.547, 51.26, 52.657
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 50.55 lower high breaks the trendline and puts the 51.26 prior high and the 38.2% fib near 50.89 in play
Failure to hold the 48.60 swing low and the 48.85 prior low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the 52.66 range floor, near the 61.8% fib at 52.31, would undo the October breakdown read
US midterm results overnight and Wed ADP / ISM Services could materially shift this read; a soft print risks an outsized short-covering spike
Lower highs and lower lows from 58.59; tight 48.60-51.26 base.
Lower highs and lower lows have held since the 58.59 peak. The leg from the 54.61 lower high broke the 52.00 shelf and extended to a swing low at 48.60, with hawkish Fed pricing and US data beats such as JOLTS weighing. Price has since based between 48.60 and the 51.26 lower high, below both EMAs, and ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 840 pips. The last bar's rebound from the swing low stalled at the 50.55 bounce high, keeping price inside the base.
Support: 49.00, 48.599
Resistance: 50.547, 51.26, 52.31
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 48.60 swing low extends the lower-low sequence into the yearly-low zone; the 49.00 round number is the first test
Acceptance above the 50.55 bounce high and then the 51.26 lower high would break the lower-high trendline from 54.61
Fib 61.8 retracement of the 54.61-48.60 leg sits at 52.31, the upper cap of any short-covering extension
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) Wednesday, plus overnight midterm results, could materially shift this read
Lower-high sequence below falling trendline; bounce rejected near 38.2% fib.
Silver has printed lower highs since the 58.59 peak. The break of the 52.66 range floor after a hawkish Fed repricing extended the slide to a 48.85 swing low. Monday's oil-led bounce stalled at the 51.26 bounce high, just above the 38.2% fib of the 54.61-48.85 leg, and has fully reversed back toward the swing low. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50. ATR(14) near 790 pips shows the selloff is still in an expanding-range regime rather than compressing.
Support: 48.851, 48.47
Resistance: 50.00, 51.26, 52.66
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 48.851 swing low confirms a fresh lower low, with the 48.47 ytd low next in view
Recovery back above the 50.00 psych level and the falling trendline would ease the lower-high read
Acceptance above the 51.26 bounce high reopens the 52.66 range floor as resistance
RSI near 31 is close to oversold; a higher RSI low on a new price low would flag bullish divergence
JOLTS today 15:00 GMT, ADP and ISM Services Wed, and midterm results could materially shift this read via Fed hike odds
Lower highs and lower lows since 58.59; range floor broken.
Silver broke the 52.66 range floor after a week of 53.0–54.6 consolidation and slid to a 48.851 swing low, with EMA20 well below EMA50 and ATR(14) expanding to roughly 810 pips. Monday's de-escalation-led short-covering bounce stalled at 51.26, just above the 38.2% retracement of the 54.605 range top to swing-low leg, and faded after the Qeshm strikes revived oil-driven Fed-hike pricing. Price is now back under 50.00 and testing the Monday low, with the lower-high sequence intact.
Support: 49.333, 48.851
Resistance: 51.26, 52.657, 54.605
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 51.26 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 52.657 range floor back in play as resistance
Failure to hold the 49.333 Monday low exposes the 48.851 swing low; a break there confirms a lower low with the 48.47 yearly low next
Reclaim of the 52.657 range floor would turn the move into a false break and point back toward the 54.605 range top
US midterm results and JOLTS (Tue 15:00 UTC), then ADP and ISM Services (Wed), could materially shift this read via Fed-hike odds
Lower highs from 58.59; 53.0-54.6 range broken lower, bounce off 48.85 swing low.
Silver has printed lower highs since the 58.59 peak. The multi-day 53.0-54.6 consolidation gave way after the hawkish Fed hold, and the slide ran to the 48.85 swing low. The short-covering bounce on a softer USD stalled at the 51.26 bounce high, just above the 38.2% fib of the 54.61-48.85 leg and at the EMA(20), with EMA(20) still below EMA(50). ATR(14) near 780 pips shows an expanding regime, not compression.
Support: 50.00, 48.85
Resistance: 51.26, 52.00, 53.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 51.26 bounce high and the 52.00 prior shelf (near the 50% fib) would mark the first higher high since the breakdown
A return toward the old 53.00 range floor and the lower highs trendline would test whether the range break holds
Failure to hold the 50.00 round number reopens the 48.85 swing low
US midterm results overnight and ADP / ISM Services on Wed could materially shift this read via Dec hike odds