Double bottom at 48.85/48.60, neckline 51.26 cleared; testing 61.8% retracement.
The late-October liquidation carved lower highs from 58.59 to a year low at 48.60. That low formed a double bottom with 48.85, and the midterm-driven USD drop pushed price through the 51.26 neckline and the lower-high line. The rally has stalled at the 52.44 swing high, just under the 61.8% retracement of the 54.61 range high to 48.60 leg at 52.31. ATR(14) is expanding near 880 pips, and price trades back above both EMAs.
Support: 51.26, 48.60
Resistance: 52.44, 53.50, 54.61
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 53.50 channel top breaks the multi-week lower-high sequence and puts the 54.61 range high in play
Failure to hold the 51.26 neckline reopens 49.00 and the 48.60 year low
Rejection at the 52.44 swing high / 61.8% zone keeps the move a counter-rally inside the downtrend
Fri 13:30 UTC NFP (f/c 65K) and AHE could materially shift this read; Thu claims and Fed's Hammack add earlier risk
Lower highs from 58.59; double bottom at 48.85/48.60 with neckline cleared.
Three weeks of lower highs from 58.59 took silver into a double bottom at 48.85/48.60. The post-midterm USD slide drove a 2.6-dollar bar through the 51.26 neckline and the lower-high line drawn off 54.6. Price is now stalling just under the 52.31 fib 61.8 of the 54.6–48.6 leg, with ATR(14) expanded near 880 pips. EMA20 still sits below EMA50, so the broader downtrend structure has not been reversed yet.
Support: 51.26, 50.00, 48.60
Resistance: 52.31, 53.50, 54.60
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 52.31 fib 61.8 opens the 53.50 prior range floor, then the 54.6 swing high
Loss of the 51.26 neckline would flag the breakout as a false break back toward 50.00 psych
EMA20 crossing above EMA50 would be the first swing-level confirmation of the double bottom
A break below the 48.6 one-year low resumes the lower-low sequence
NFP and AHE Fri 13:30 UTC, plus Thu jobless claims, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 58.59 intact; double bottom at 48.60-48.85 with neckline break.
Silver has made lower highs since the 58.59 peak, with the October slide bottoming in a double btm at 48.60-48.85. The Democratic midterm sweep hit USD and yields and drove a squeeze through the 51.26 prior high and the lower-highs trendline. Price is now stalling just under the fib 61.8 at 52.31 of the 54.605 swing high to 48.60 drop. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 850 pips, and price is pressing the EMA50 near 52.0 with EMA20 still below it, so there is no bullish cross yet.
Support: 51.26, 50.00, 48.60
Resistance: 52.31, 53.50, 54.605
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8) could materially shift this read; a hot print with firm Prices Paid would test the bounce
H4 close above the fib 61.8 at 52.31 and the 52.50 cluster opens the prior range floor at 53.50
Acceptance above 53.50 brings the 54.605 swing high into view and would break the lower-highs sequence
Close back below the 51.26 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break, with the 50.00 round number next
Loss of the 48.60 double btm resumes the downtrend to fresh lows
Lower highs since 58.59; double-bottom break above 51.26.
Silver has carved lower highs from 58.59 through 54.61 and 51.26. The Democratic midterm sweep and a weaker USD then drove a ~2,900-pip H4 spike off a 48.60–48.85 double-bottom base, closing above the 51.26 prior high. The move stalled at the descending lower-high trendline, with price sitting at the 50% retracement of the 54.61–48.60 leg near 51.60 and the ema50 near 52.00 and fib 61.8 at 52.35 overhead. ATR(14) has expanded to ~950 pips. The prior cap at 50.55 is the next shelf below if the spike unwinds the way Monday's bounce did.
Support: 51.26, 50.55, 48.60
Resistance: 52.00, 52.35, 54.60
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 52.35 fib 61.8 and the ema50 would break the lower-high sequence from 58.59, with 54.60 lower high next in view
Slip back below the 51.26 prior high would mirror Monday's faded bounce, exposing the 50.55 prior cap
Break below the 48.60 swing low voids the double bottom and resumes lower lows
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from 58.59; basing attempt above 48.60.
Silver has made lower highs and lower lows from the 58.59 peak. The 53.0-54.6 shelf broke into a slide to the 48.60 one-year low, driven by firm December Fed-hike pricing and tech risk-off. The rebound to 51.26 reversed after the Qeshm strike headlines, and the latest bounce was rejected at the falling trendline near 50.55. Price is below both EMAs, and ATR(14) near 750 pips shows an expanding regime rather than compression.
Support: 48.60
Resistance: 50.55, 51.26, 52.30
What it said to watch
A close below the 48.60 one-year low extends the lower-low sequence.
A close above the 50.55 trendline breaks the lower-high pattern and brings the 51.26 swing high and the 38.2% fib near 50.89 into view.
The 52.30 breakdown zone is the upper limit of any short-covering squeeze.
ADP (13:15 UTC), ISM Services and prices paid (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read via Fed-hike odds.
Lower highs from 54.61 to 51.26; base forming 48.60-50.55.
Silver broke out of the late-October 53.00-54.60 range and printed a lower high at the 51.26 swing high before retesting the 48.60 yearly low, as hawkish Fed pricing and US data beats kept pressure on the metal. Since then, price has been held in a 48.60-50.55 band, with the 50.55 cap rejected twice and price sitting just under EMA20, while EMA50 is well overhead. ATR(14) near 730 pips is expanded versus the earlier range phase, so swings within the base stay wide.
Support: 49.37, 48.60
Resistance: 50.55, 51.26, 52.32
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 48.60 yearly low resumes the lower-low sequence
Loss of the 49.37 minor low puts the yearly low back in play
H4 close above the 50.55 cap breaks the base higher and exposes the 51.26 swing high and the lower-highs trendline
Fib 61.8 retracement of the 54.61-48.60 leg at 52.32 coincides with prior breakdown resistance
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) Wednesday plus midterm results could materially shift this read