21:09 UTC
Downtrend from August high, momentum stalling near 60 · RSI 38 · price 61.313
Lower highs since Aug 28; September floor broken, basing 59.7–62.1.
The Aug 28 peak at 71.17 started a sequence of lower highs at 68.31 and 67.53 along the lower-high line. The 62.30–63.06 September floor gave way on Sep 28, and price has since spent eight sessions compressing between the 59.68 swing low and the 62.07 rally cap, below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI near 38. The post-NFP bounce failed under the rally cap, and the hawkish FOMC Minutes reinforced the yield-driven pressure behind the Aug–Oct decline.
Support: 59.676, 56.557, 54.756
Resistance: 62.07, 64.06, 67.529
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 59.68 swing low extends the decline toward the 56.56 august low, then the 54.76 july low
- Daily close above the 62.07 rally cap opens the fib 38.2 at 64.06 and puts the broken September floor back in play
- A daily close above the 67.53 lower high would break the lower-high line and invalidate the downtrend read
- Waller and Jobless Claims Thu, then UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri, could shift yields and this read