Lower highs below 62 since the 67.53 peak; 60-62 range with a failed break lower.
Lower highs since the 67.53 late-September peak, with the 62 rejection zone capping three times (62.07, 62.02, 61.85) as price has ranged roughly 59.7–62 for two weeks. Thursday's dip to the 58.49 two-mo low on hawkish FOMC minutes and firmer yields was fully reversed as yields and oil eased, putting price back above the 60 psych, the ema50 near 60.80 and the 61.8% retracement of the 62.02–58.49 drop. EMA20 (~60.22) still sits below EMA50, and ATR(14) near 765 pips has eased from the late-September expansion.
Support: 60.80, 58.50
Resistance: 61.85, 62.05
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 61.85 lower high and the 62 rejection zone breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the ema50 near 60.80 and the 60 psych reopens the 58.50 two-mo low
Close below 58.49 two-mo low confirms a fresh lower-low and turns the false break into a range break
US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 67.53; bounce off 58.49 low into 50–61.8% fib.
Silver has printed a sequence of lower highs since the 67.53 peak, most recently 62.07/62.02 and 61.85, with Wednesday's hawkish FOMC minutes driving the breakdown bar through 59.21 and on to a two-month swing low at 58.49. The rebound on easing yields and oil has reclaimed the 60.00 psych level and EMA20 and now sits between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the 62.02–58.49 leg. Price is pressing the prior high at 60.60 just beneath the falling lower-high trendline near 60.80, while EMA50 overhead keeps the bounce corrective within the broader downtrend; ATR(14) stays elevated near 725 pips.
Support: 60.00, 59.21, 58.494
Resistance: 60.60, 61.85, 62.05
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 60.60 prior high and the lower-high trendline breaks the descending sequence and opens 61.85, the latest lower high
Rejection at the 61.8% fib near 60.67 and a close back below the 60.00 psych level reasserts the downtrend
Loss of 59.21, the breakdown bar low, re-exposes the 58.49 swing low
Only a recovery above the 62.05 swing high zone, capped twice, would neutralise the lower-high structure
Lower highs and lower lows since 67.53; 60–62 range broken lower, now retesting the floor.
Silver has printed lower highs since the 67.53 peak. The 62.07 / 62.02 / 61.85 sequence capped the 60–62 range before hawkish FOMC minutes and firm yields cracked the range floor and set a 2-month low at 58.494. The bounce on the oil and yield pullback has reclaimed EMA20 and sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 62.02–58.49 leg, pressing into the old range floor at 60.60 while still below EMA50. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 730 pips after the range compression, which fits a trend-extension regime rather than a basing one.
Support: 59.21, 58.494
Resistance: 60.60, 62.022
What it said to watch
H4 closes back inside the range above the 60.60 range floor and the 61.8% fib (60.67) would neutralise the range-break read
Rejection at the range floor followed by a loss of the 59.21 breakdown low puts the 58.494 2-month low back in play
A break of the 2-month low extends the lower-low sequence; the descending lower-high trendline near 62.0 stays the structural cap
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read via yields
Silver has printed a clean sequence of lower highs (67.53, 65.08, the 62.07 prior high, then the 61.85 lower high) and lower lows down to the 58.49 2-month low. Hawkish FOMC minutes and yields near two-decade highs drove the midweek break through 60.00. The current bounce on softer oil is retesting the 60.00 psych pivot from just above, with price back over EMA20 but still under the ema50 near 60.70, which aligns with the 61.8% fib of the 62.07-58.49 leg. EMA20 remains below EMA50, and ATR(14) near 720 pips shows no compression.
Support: 60.00, 59.21, 58.494
Resistance: 60.70, 61.853, 62.07
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 60.00 psych pivot returns focus to the 59.21 swing low and the 58.49 2-month low
Rejection at the ema50 / 61.8% fib near 60.70 keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
A move through the 61.85 lower high and 62.07 prior high invalidates the downtrend read
Break of the 58.49 2-month low extends the lower-lows trendline toward 56.57
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations today 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs from 67.53; 60.00-62.07 range broken lower, price back under the range floor.
Silver has printed lower highs since the 67.53 late-September peak, and the 60.00-62.07 range that held for nearly two weeks gave way after the hawkish FOMC minutes, with price sliding through the oct 7 low to a 2-month low at 58.49. Price is now edging back toward the broken range floor near 60.00 from below. EMA20 sits under EMA50, and ATR(14) near 720 pips points to a mid-range volatility regime rather than compression. The 38.2% fib of the 67.53-58.49 drop lands at 61.95, just under the range top.
Support: 58.494
Resistance: 60.00, 60.58, 62.07
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 60.00 range floor would neutralise the range-break read
Rejection at 60.00-60.58 (lower high) keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Failure to hold the oct 7 low and 2-month low at 58.49 extends the downtrend; the digest cites 56.57 as the next level beyond that
Michigan sentiment and UoM inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) plus 10Y yields vs 5.35% could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the range top at 62.07 and the 38.2% fib would break the lower-highs structure