22:07 UTC
Downtrend, rebound pressing falling trendline · RSI 43 · price 53.325
LH/LL chain since Sep 9; base 48.60-48.95, bounce capped near 53.5.
Two-month downtrend of lower highs and lower lows from the 68.31 Sep 9 peak, with price below a falling EMA(50) and RSI back to ~43 after a sub-25 oversold reading on the Oct 30 flush toward the 48.60 1yr low. The midterm-driven rebound stalled at the 53.45-53.53 weekly high, and silver absorbed Friday's NFP beat with the friday low at 51.18 holding and dojis forming around the 52.00 psych pivot. Monday's 53.33 close sits on the 23.6% retracement of the Sep-Nov decline and just above the downtrend line from the September highs, though the horizontal cap has not yet given way.
Support: 52.00, 51.181, 48.603
Resistance: 53.525, 54.605, 56.131
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 53.53 weekly high would confirm the break of the downtrend line and expose the 54.61 prior high, then the 38.2 fib at 56.13
- Close back below the 52.00 psych pivot and the 51.18 friday low would frame the bounce as a lower high, with the 48.60 1yr low back in view
- US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT (core MoM f/c 0.2%), preceded by Fed's Waller, could decide a 53.50 break or a 51.25 retest
- Price remains below EMA(20) near 54.27; a sustained hold above it would mark the first shift in the swing structure since September