The broader H4 sequence is a downtrend that swept the $61.50 YTD low before exploding ~10% higher into the mid-$67s, with the rebound driven by softer core CPI/PPI prints and US-Iran de-escalation. Price is now testing the $67.25 200-day SMA pivot, sitting above EMA20 but capped well under EMA50 near $70. ATR(14) near 1,940 pips marks a violent expansion regime rather than a clean trend.
Support: 66.00, 61.50
Resistance: 69.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 69.00 opens the path toward $70.00
Failure to hold 66.00 reopens the $61.50 ytd low retest
FOMC dot plot Jun 17 18:00 GMT is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
H4 has been a clean downtrend from ~77, collapsing to a YTD low of 61.49 before a violent ~10% rebound on US-Iran de-escalation. Price is now retracing roughly 80% of that final leg and testing the 200-day SMA pivot at 67.25, with 69.00 the next supply zone; structure sits above EMA20 but still below EMA50. The hot CPI/PPI backdrop versus Iran headlines leaves a headline-driven, two-way tape into the FOMC dots.
Support: 67.25, 66.00, 61.50
Resistance: 69.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 67.25 keeps the 69.00 resistance in play
Failure back below 66.00 reopens the 61.50 YTD low
FOMC dot plot Jun 17 18:00 GMT is the dominant catalyst
Close above 69.00 would clear the potential H&S neckline
Lower highs into 61.50, bounce capped at 200d sma.
The dominant H4 structure is a downtrend that flushed to an 11-week low of 61.49 before a violent rebound on Iran ceasefire hopes lifted price back to ~67. That recovery stalled directly under the 200-day SMA at 67.25, where supply has capped the last several bars, while ATR(14) near 1800 pips marks an expanded, headline-driven volatility regime. Rising lows since 61.49 hold the bounce together, but price sits below the EMA50 and into clear overhead resistance.
Support: 65.30, 63.50, 61.50
Resistance: 67.25, 67.94, 68.88
What it said to watch
H4 close above 67.25 (200d sma) opens the path toward 67.94 then the 68.88 9-day ema
Failure to hold the 65.30 rising-lows zone risks a retrace toward 63.50 support and the 61.50 ytd low
Michigan Sentiment + UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Strait of Hormuz / Iran ceasefire headlines remain the dominant intraday driver
Lower lows into 61.49, recovering toward 200-day SMA.
Multi-week downtrend remains intact after the slide through the 200-day SMA to an 11-week low at 61.49, but a violent +6% relief bounce on Iran ceasefire headlines has lifted price back toward the 67.25 200-day SMA. That level is capping the recovery, with the 68.88 9-day EMA above as the next barrier; ATR(14) stays elevated, reflecting the headline-driven two-way volatility around the YTD low. A twin low near 61.5 anchors the bounce, but price remains below the EMA50.
Support: 63.50, 61.49, 60.00
Resistance: 67.25, 68.88, 70.00
What it said to watch
Repeated rejection at 67.25 200-day SMA keeps the bearish read; a clean H4 close above opens 68.88 then 70.00
Failure to hold 63.50 support re-exposes the 61.49 ytd low and 60.00
Michigan Sentiment + UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via Fed-hike pricing
Multi-week downtrend dragged silver from the high-70s to an 11-week low at 61.02, breaking the 200-DMA before a Trump/Iran de-escalation sparked a +6% snapback toward 67.9. That bounce has stalled under the 200-DMA at 67.25 and price has eased back to 66.33, leaving the broader bearish structure intact despite the recovery.
Support: 64.04, 61.49
Resistance: 67.25, 67.94, 70.00
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 67.25 200-dma opens the path to 70.00
Loss of 64.04 swing low re-exposes the 61.49 ytd low
Michigan sentiment + inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs since $78; bounce off YTD low capped under 200-DMA.
Silver remains in a clear H4 downtrend after slicing the 200-DMA, bottoming at the $61.49 YTD low before a sharp Iran-ceasefire-driven bounce to $67.94. That recovery has stalled and faded under the 200-DMA at $67.25, with price now back at $66.33 below the EMA50. ATR is elevated — the move is volatile and headline-driven rather than orderly.
Support: 64.00, 61.487
Resistance: 67.25, 67.943, 68.88
What it said to watch
H4 close above 67.25 200-dma reclaims and opens the 68.88 area
Failure to hold 64.0 prior consol exposes the 61.49 ytd low
Michigan sentiment + inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Weekend Iran headlines carry gap risk into next week
Multi-week downtrend dropped silver from ~$78 to a $61.49 YTD-area low, with the slide accelerating on hawkish-Fed pricing and USD haven flows. Price is now staging an oversold short-cover bounce on US-Iran ceasefire hopes and softer core PPI, testing the $67.25 200-DMA cap from below. EMA50 remains well above price, confirming the broader bearish swing structure despite the rebound.
Support: 64.00, 61.49
Resistance: 67.25, 70.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 67.25 200-DMA opens the path toward 70.00
Failure to hold 64.00 reopens the 61.49 swing low
UoM Michigan Sentiment 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Silver remains in a multi-week downtrend after the slide from the $77 region, but the $61.49 swing low was swept and has driven a sharp short-cover bounce back to the $67.25 200-DMA cap, helped by US-Iran ceasefire hopes and a softer core PPI print. Price now sits above EMA20 yet below the EMA50, and the rebound stalls right at the 200-DMA — the key multi-day pivot. ATR remains elevated, signalling the move off the lows is still expanding.
Support: 64.00, 61.487, 61.02
Resistance: 67.25, 70.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 67.25 200-DMA opens the path toward 70.00
Failure to hold above 64.00 reopens the 61.49 swing low and 61.02 ytd low
Michigan sentiment + inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Silver collapsed from ~$80 to a $61.49 YTD low this week, breaking below the 200-day SMA (~$67.25) as hawkish-Fed repricing on the in-line 4.2% CPI trumped any safe-haven bid. Price is now staging a corrective bounce straight into the $66-67.25 cap; lower-high/lower-low structure remains intact and ATR(14) is elevated, reflecting the trend's expansion phase. The recovery off $61.49 alongside a higher RSI low hints at a bullish divergence, but the move is corrective until the 200-day SMA reclaims.
Support: 64.00, 61.49
Resistance: 67.25
What it said to watch
H4 close above 67.25 200d sma needed to neutralize the bearish setup
Failure to hold 64.00 swing low reopens the 61.49 ytd low
Michigan Sentiment Fri 14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs / lower lows, recovering from YTD-low region.
Silver remains in a steep multi-week downtrend after the breakdown below the 200-day SMA (~67.25), with hawkish-Fed repricing on sticky CPI (4.2% YoY) driving the collapse from ~80 toward the 61.49 YTD-low region. Price has staged a sharp corrective bounce off 61.49 and is now retesting the 67.25/68.00 cap from below — the 200-day SMA area the digest flags as needing reclaim. ATR is elevated, reflecting an expanding, volatile regime rather than compression.
Support: 64.00, 61.50
Resistance: 68.00
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 68.0 (200d sma) would neutralise the bearish structure
Rejection at the 68.0 cap keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Loss of 64.0 swing low reopens 61.5 ytd low
Fri 14:00 GMT UoM Michigan + inflation expectations could materially shift this read