Lower highs from 67.53; retesting the 58.49–58.88 low zone.
Silver has printed a sequence of lower highs since the 67.53 late-September peak, with the latest rebound capped at the 61.43 lower high before rolling over to a fresh 58.88 swing low. Price is back below both EMA20 and EMA50, which are stacked bearishly, and is retesting the 58.49 two-month low zone as near-5.2% 10y yields and a firm USD weigh. ATR(14) near 580 pips sits below the late-September expansion but is widening again on the latest down-leg.
Support: 58.88, 58.494
Resistance: 60.00, 60.721, 61.435
What it said to watch
Wed 12:30 UTC US CPI: the core m/m print against the 0.2% forecast could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 58.49 two-month low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 60.00 psych level and the 60.72 swing high would put the 61.43 lower high back in focus
H4 close above 61.43 breaks the lower-highs trendline and invalidates the downtrend read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 67.53 top; price back near the lows.
Silver has printed a steady run of lower highs since the 67.53 top, stepping down through 65.08, the 62.02 swing high and the 61.43 cap, while lows have extended to the 58.494 2-month low. Last week's rebound to the 61.173 friday high came on softer oil and Iran-talk headlines, but it stalled below the falling lower-highs trendline. Price has since slipped under the 60.721 lower high and both EMAs, and now sits just above the 58.98 pivot low. ATR has eased from the late-September expansion, so the coil looks more contained into US CPI.
Support: 58.98, 58.494
Resistance: 60.721, 61.173, 62.022
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC: a core beat at 0.3% or more m/m could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 58.494 2-month low extends the lower-low sequence
Hold of the 58.98 pivot low keeps a range between there and the 60.721 lower high in play
H4 close above the 61.173 friday high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, which puts the 62.022 swing high back in view
Holding below the swing fib 61.8% near 60.57 keeps the rebound framed as corrective
13:05 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near the lows · RSI 50 · price 60.371
Lower highs from 67.53; 59.55–61.44 range inside.
Silver has printed lower highs since the 67.53 peak, through 65.08, the twice-tested 62 cap (62.07/62.02) and the 61.44 swing high. Hawkish FOMC minutes and firm yields drove the leg to the 58.49 2-month low, and the rebound has since faded. Price is now near the 60.00 psych pivot, under the fib 61.8 at 60.70, and just below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50. This week's 59.55 swing low sits above 58.49, a tentative higher low, while ATR(14) has compressed to about 560 pips from roughly 900+ earlier in the window ahead of US CPI.
Support: 60.00, 59.555, 58.494
Resistance: 60.704, 61.435, 62.07
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 61.44 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and brings the 62 cap back into view
Failure to hold the 59.55 swing low voids the higher low and reopens the 58.49 2-month low
Repeated holds above 60.00 psych keep the 59.55–61.44 range read intact
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC: core m/m vs the 0.2% forecast could resolve the compression either way out of the range
Lower highs from 67.53 and coiling between 59.56 and 61.17.
Silver has printed a clean lower-high sequence since the 67.53 peak, with the hawkish FOMC Minutes driving the break to a 58.49 2-month low before a yield pullback lifted price to the 61.17 rebound high. The latest lower high at 61.44 sits under the 62.02 prior high, and price is now compressing between the 59.56 higher low and that 61.17 rebound high. It is pivoting around the psych 60.00 area and between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the 62.02–58.49 leg. ATR(14) has eased to roughly 520 pips from 800+ during the late-September selloff, and price is hugging flat EMA20/EMA50 with the 20 still beneath the 50.
Support: 60.00, 58.494
Resistance: 61.173, 61.435, 62.022
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC, core m/m vs 0.2% forecast, could materially shift this read
H4 close above the lower-high trendline and 61.44 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens 62.02 prior high
Failure to hold the 59.56 higher low exposes the 58.49 2-month low
Repeated closes around psych 60.00 inside the 59.56–61.17 box keep the compression read intact
09:06 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a range · RSI 53 · price 60.561
Lower highs from 67.53; first higher low at 59.56 inside a 59.5–61.4 box.
Silver has printed lower highs since the 67.53 peak, with the 62.02 lower high and the 61.44 swing high forming a descending lower-high line now near 61.3. Hawkish FOMC minutes and firm yields drove the break to the 58.49 2-month low. Friday's rally on softer yields stalled at the 61.17 Friday high, and the pullback held a 59.56 higher low with demand around the 60.00 psych pivot. Price sits near the 61.8% of the 62.02–58.49 fib, above EMA20 but just under a flattening EMA50, and ATR(14) has compressed from earlier in the window, so the 59.5–61.4 range is narrowing into the next catalyst.
Support: 60.00, 58.494
Resistance: 61.173, 61.435, 62.022
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 61.44 swing high breaks the lower-high line and the downtrend sequence, exposing the 62.02 lower high
Failure to hold the 59.56 higher low reopens the 58.49 2-month low
Repeated rejection at the 61.17 Friday high keeps the range read intact
US September CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 67.53; rebound off 58.49 capped at a 61.44 lower high.
Silver has printed lower highs since the 67.53 peak. Those highs stepped down through the 62.07 prior high and 62.02, and the latest lower high came in at 61.44 after the FOMC-minutes break took price to the 58.49 2-month low. The Friday rebound stalled near the 78.6% retracement of the 62.02–58.49 leg. Price is now compressing around the $60 psych pivot, holding a swing low at 59.56, with EMA20 still below EMA50. ATR(14) near 570 pips has contracted from late-September levels, which fits pre-CPI compression rather than trend extension.
Support: 60.00, 58.494
Resistance: 61.435, 62.07
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, where the core print could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 60.00 psych pivot and the 59.56 swing low would expose the 58.49 2-month low
A break of the 58.49 2-month low would extend the lower-low sequence
A close above the 61.44 lower high and the trendline from 62.02 would break the lower-highs structure and bring the 62.07 prior high into play
Lower highs and lower lows since 67.53; bounce from 58.49 capped at 61.44.
Silver has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 67.53 peak. Each recovery has been capped below the prior one, from 65.08 to the 62.07 range top to Monday's 61.44 lower high. Friday's short-covering bounce from the 58.49 swing low came as yields corrected. It peaked at the 76% retracement of the 62.02–58.49 drop, and price has since faded back to the 50% fib near 60.25, just above the 60.00 psych pivot. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with EMA20 under EMA50. ATR(14) is around 540 pips and easing from Wednesday–Thursday's expansion, leaving the lower-highs trendline and 60.00 as the nearby structure into CPI.
Support: 60.00, 59.68, 58.494
Resistance: 61.435, 62.07
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC (MoM f/c 0.6%, core 0.2%) could materially shift this read. A 10Y push through 5.35% has been the main pressure channel.
An H4 close below 60.00 psych reopens the late-September range floor at 59.68 and the 58.49 swing low.
A loss of the 58.49 swing low extends the lower-low sequence.
An H4 close above the 61.44 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline. That would put the 62.07 range top back in play.