Lower highs from 71.17 to 61.17, two-week range 58.49–62.07 under falling EMAs.
Silver has printed a lower-high sequence since the 28 Aug rejection at 71.17, through 68.31 and 67.53. The 28 Sep drop through the 62.30 September low moved price below both EMAs, and EMA(50) near 62.80 is now rolling over. Hawkish FOMC minutes and 10y yields near 5.2% pushed silver to a two-mth low at 58.49 last Thursday. Friday's rebound stalled at the oct 9 high of 61.17, leaving a two-week range capped by the 62.07 lower high, where EMA(20) also sits. RSI near 40 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 58.494, 56.557, 54.756
Resistance: 61.173, 62.07, 62.80
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC: a core print at or above 0.3% versus the 0.2% forecast could materially shift this read
A daily close below the 58.49 two-mth low extends the lower-low chain and exposes the 56.56 aug low, then the 54.76 july low
A daily close above the 62.07 lower high and EMA(20) breaks the two-week range. That opens the ema50 at 62.80 and the 38.2% aug-oct fib near 63.33
Repeated failure at the 61.17 oct 9 high keeps the range capped below the lower-high line
Lower highs from 71.17; Sept range broken, basing above 58.49.
Silver has been in a downtrend since the 71.17 late-August high. A lower-high chain through 68.31 and 67.53 preceded a range break below the 62.30 September floor on 28 Sep. Since then price has held a two-week consolidation between the 58.49 swing low and the 62.07 lower high, below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI in the high 30s. The hawkish FOMC Minutes drove the 8 Oct swing low, and Friday's yield-led rebound has stalled beneath the recent high at 61.44.
Support: 58.494, 56.557, 54.756
Resistance: 61.435, 62.07, 63.334
What it said to watch
A daily close above the 62.07 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the fib 38.2 at 63.33 into view
A daily close above the recent high at 61.44 would end the October consolidation
Failure to hold the 58.49 swing low extends the downtrend toward the august low at 56.56, with the july low at 54.76 beneath
US CPI (Sep), Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read; core MoM against the 0.2% forecast is the swing factor