Multi-month downtrend off the late-February peak near 96.37, an unbroken chain of lower highs and lower lows that bottomed at the 61.50 YTD low last week. Price has staged a sharp three-session V-bounce to 70.31 as the US-Iran ceasefire and Hormuz reopening drained the haven/inflation bid, but it remains below both the EMA20 and the 50-day around 74.83, keeping the broader structure heavy. The bounce off 61.50 came with RSI lifting from oversold while price held a higher low, a divergence that tempered the slide.
Support: 65.32, 61.50
Resistance: 72.70, 74.83
What it said to watch
Daily close above 72.70 swing high would break the lower-high sequence
Hawkish FOMC dots Wed 18:00 UTC could pressure back toward the 67.25 area
Failure to hold the 68 pivot reopens 65.32 swing low and the 61.50 ytd low
Dominant trend is down since the late-February peak near 96.37, a slide that bottomed at the 61.50 ytd low this month. The last four sessions have staged a sharp V-recovery back above 70, with silver retaking roughly 13% as the US-Iran ceasefire/Hormuz reopening drained the haven and inflation premium. Price remains below the 50-day ema near 74.55 and the falling-wedge break is still working off the lows.
Support: 67.25, 61.50
Resistance: 74.55
What it said to watch
FOMC decision + dots Wed 18:00 UTC is the swing factor for this read
Daily close back below 67.25 (200-day) re-exposes the 61.50 ytd low
Close above 74.55 (50-day ema) would confirm the recovery extending