19:07 UTC
Downtrend since Jan 2026 blow-off top, below EMA50 · RSI 38 · price 57.219
Lower highs from 121.63 peak; price retesting the 54.76-55.39 july low zone.
Silver has been in a downtrend since the late-January 2026 spike top at 121.63. It has printed a sequence of lower highs at 96.37 in March, 89.36 in May and 71.17 at the aug high, and has now given back more than 61.8% of the 2025-26 rally (around 66.0). Price slipped back below the W1 EMA50 near 61.72 in late September after a failed August reclaim. This week it probed 55.39, just above the 54.76 july low, before steadying into the close on lower Treasury yields and a softer USD. Re-accelerating US inflation and a near-fully priced December Fed hike keep the macro backdrop heavy, with RSI at ~38 sitting mid-range rather than oversold.
Support: 54.756, 50.90
Resistance: 61.72, 71.165
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the 54.76 july low confirms a fresh lower-low and exposes the fib 78.6 retracement near 50.90 and the 50.00 round number
- Weekly close back above the ema50 near 61.72 would challenge the downtrend read
- Reclaiming the 71.17 aug high would break the lower-high sequence from the 121.63 peak
- Late-October FOMC and December hike pricing, plus Oct 23 S&P Global PMIs, could materially shift this read via yields and the USD