Silver remains in a multi-month downtrend off the late-February $96 peak, shedding roughly a third of its value into the early-June $61-63 base. A double bottom near $63 sparked a bounce to the $71 swing high, but Wednesday's hawkish Fed hold and a hot Retail Sales print faded the rally back under $68. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), now testing the lower end of the $66-70 range.
Support: 63.30, 61.49
Resistance: 70.00
What it said to watch
Daily close below 63.30 negates the double bottom and reopens the 61.49 swing low
Reclaim of the 70.00 pivot needed to challenge the descending highs
Core PCE (Jun 25) and S&P Global PMIs (Jun 23) are the key catalysts for metals
15:04 UTC
Downtrend, basing attempt · RSI 45 · price 68.509
Lower highs since late-Feb, double bottom near 63.
Silver has been in a multi-month downtrend off the late-February peak near 96.37, carving lower highs and a string of weekly declines into a 63 low earlier this month. Monday's ~4% rally reclaimed the 200-day region near 68.59 and built a double bottom, helped by the US-Iran/Hormuz de-escalation and softer dollar, but the bounce has stalled below the 70.00 pivot as a hawkish-hold Fed and hot retail sales cap upside. Price now sits back at the reclaimed level after fading from 71.54, with the EMA(20) and EMA(50) still overhead and pointing lower.
Support: 66.81, 63.40
Resistance: 70.00, 71.54, 74.55
What it said to watch
Daily close above 70.00 pivot would extend the basing attempt toward the 50d ema near 74.55
Loss of 66.81 support reopens the 63.40 swing low and negates the double bottom
S&P PMIs (Jun 23) and Core PCE (Jun 25) could materially shift the USD/silver read
Four-month downtrend off the late-February ~96.37 peak, a steady chain of lower highs and lower lows into the early-June 61.49 low. Price has since bounced ~12% to print a double bottom and reclaim the 68.59 area, aided by Monday's US-Iran/Hormuz haven rally, but the move stalled under the 70.00 pivot after a hawkish-hold Fed and hot retail sales. With price still below EMA50, the recovery reads as corrective for now.
Support: 66.81, 61.49
Resistance: 70.00, 71.54
What it said to watch
Daily close above 70.00 opens the path toward the 71.54 swing high
Failure to hold 66.81 support reopens the 61.49 double-bottom low
S&P PMIs (Jun 23) and Core PCE (Jun 25) could shift the USD path driving silver