21:09 UTC
Recovery uptrend off the July low, momentum flat · RSI 50 · price 66.249
Lower highs since the late-Aug 71.17 peak, base carved at 62.30.
Silver based at 54.76 in mid-July and rallied for six weeks into the 71.17 aug high, and the last three weeks have been a corrective phase of lower highs — 69.26, 68.31 — into a 62.30 swing low printed midweek. That low came on the hawkish Fed hike and lifted dot path, but the break under the 64.15 neckline was not sustained: two sessions of roughly 3% gains on the yield and oil unwind reclaimed it and closed the week at 66.25, back above both EMA20 and a gently rising EMA50. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 50, so the daily sequence is still consolidation between 62.30 and the 67.30 prior high rather than a resumed trend.
Support: 64.15, 62.30, 60.00
Resistance: 67.30, 68.31, 71.17
What it said to watch
- US flash PMIs Wed 23 Sep are the week's only high-impact print and can reset October hike pricing, the main driver of this move
- A daily close above the 67.30 prior high and then 68.31 swing high would end the lower-high sequence off 71.17
- A daily close back under the 64.15 neckline re-opens the 62.30 swing low and turns the reclaim into a failed retest
- Loss of 62.30 confirms a lower low with 60.00 the next round number reference