Lower highs since 61.44; 57–58.6 range broken, fresh low at 53.02.
Silver has printed a sequence of lower highs since 61.44, and the midweek rejection at the 58.03 range top gave way to a range break. Oil-driven Fed-hike repricing and firmer yields pushed price through the 55.39 prior low to a 53.02 YTD low, with price below both EMAs and EMA20 under EMA50. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 850 pips from near 500 during the range. RSI(14) sits near 33.5 after dipping to about 23 on the first push through 53.5, a mild bullish divergence as the ytd low printed on a long lower wick.
Support: 53.016, 50.00
Resistance: 54.557, 58.028
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 54.56 bounce high would mark the first higher high since the breakdown
Reclaim of the 55.39 prior low (near the 38.2% fib of the 58.59–53.02 leg) would weaken the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 53.02 ytd low confirms a lower-low and puts the 50.00 psych level in view
58.03 range top and the lower-highs trendline cap the broader structure
Durable Goods Tue Oct 27 and FOMC Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 64.785; range breakdown below 57.
Silver has printed successive lower highs from 64.785 through 61.435 and the 58.592 lower high, and a falling lower-high trendline caps every rebound. Thursday's break of the 57-58.60 range came on surging oil, firm yields and broad de-risking, and it carried price to a fresh ytd low at 53.446. RSI(14) near 28 sits in oversold territory, and ATR(14) has expanded to about 800 pips, so the leg is extended rather than compressing. Price trades below both EMA20 and EMA50, which are stacked bearishly.
Support: 53.446
Resistance: 54.557, 55.385, 58.592
What it said to watch
An H4 close below the 53.446 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the $50 psych level in view
The 54.557 bounce high is the first cap; reclaiming it would show the post-low bounce gaining traction
A recovery to the 55.385 prior low, which aligns with the 38.2% fib of the 58.59-53.45 leg, would test former support as resistance
A close above the 58.592 lower high and the falling trendline invalidates the downtrend read
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with the Fed decision Wednesday
09:04 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 27 · price 53.829
Lower highs and lower lows; 57-58.6 range broken lower to a fresh YTD low.
Silver has printed a lower-high sequence from 62.02 down to the 58.59 lower high. The ~57-58.6 consolidation broke lower this week on oil-led inflation fears and firm December Fed-hike pricing, sending price to a 53.45 YTD low with price below both EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) near 815 pips shows an expanding range, while RSI in the high 20s marks an oversold read and the 54.56 bounce high is capping the first rebound.
Support: 53.446, 50.00
Resistance: 54.557, 55.385, 58.592
What it said to watch
Today's 13:45 UTC flash PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 53.45 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 50.00 psych level
A recovery through the 54.56 bounce high brings the 55.38 prior low, which sits near the fib 38.2%, back into play as resistance
Only a move back above the 58.59 lower high and the descending trendline would break the downtrend structure
Next Wednesday's Fed decision is the larger catalyst for the multi-day structure
05:04 UTC
Downtrend, extending into oversold · RSI 23 · price 53.762
Lower highs from 65.08; 57-58.6 range broken to the downside.
Silver has printed lower highs from 65.08 to 62.02 and then the 58.59 swing high. This week's 57-58.6 range broke down as oil-driven Fed hike fears firmed, slicing through the 55.385 prior low to a fresh 53.446 swing low. RSI(14) near 23 is oversold, ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 800 pips, and price sits well below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50.
Support: 53.446, 50.00
Resistance: 55.385, 56.019, 58.592
What it said to watch
US PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
An H4 close back above the 55.385 prior low would mark the breakdown as stalling
Failure to hold the 53.446 swing low leaves the 50.00 round number as the next reference
A rebound into the fib 50% at 56.02 or the lower-high trendline would test whether supply still caps rallies
The 58.592 swing high remains the level that defines the lower-high sequence
Next week's Fed decision is the dominant event risk for this structure
01:06 UTC
Downtrend, extension leg in progress · RSI 24 · price 54.51
Lower highs and lower lows, fresh breakdown below the prior low.
Lower-high sequence intact across the window (62.07, 61.44, then the 58.59 lower high). This week's drop from 58.59 broke the 55.39 prior low and printed a fresh window low at 54.47, as oil-driven inflation fears and firm December Fed-hike pricing weighed on silver. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, RSI is in oversold territory near 24 and ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 700 pips, consistent with a trend leg extending rather than compressing.
Support: 54.47, 54.00
Resistance: 56.37, 58.592
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 55.39 prior low would mark the breakdown as a failed break
Failure to hold the 54.47 window low exposes the 54.00 round number
Fri 13:45/14:00 UTC US PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read; oversold RSI leaves room for a sharp counter-move on a soft print
56.37 swing low sits just under the 50% fib of the 58.59-54.47 leg; a recovery capped there keeps the lower-high structure intact
Close above the 58.59 lower high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read