Lower highs and lower lows; tight base above 53.00.
Lower highs at 61.44 and 58.59 and lower lows at 58.49 and 55.39 define a clean downtrend. Last week's breakdown through the 55.38 broken low came as yields and oil-driven hike fears firmed, and it extended the move to the 53.00 ytd low. Price has since based in a 53.00–54.56 band for about two weeks of sessions, with two tests of 53.00 holding and the range top capping. Price is below EMA20, and EMA20 is below EMA50. ATR(14) has eased to roughly 780 pips from the breakdown bars, pointing to compression ahead of the Fed.
Support: 53.00, 50.00
Resistance: 54.56, 55.38, 56.46
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 53.00 ytd low confirms a fresh lower-low and opens the 50.00 psych level
Close above the 54.56 range top breaks the basing band and puts the 55.38 broken low (near the 38.2–50% retracement) in play
61.8% fib at 56.46 and the lower-highs trendline near 56.8 mark where the downtrend read would be challenged
Wed 18:00 UTC Fed decision, plus Tue Durable Goods, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; tight base forming at 53.00-54.56.
Silver has printed lower highs and lower lows since slipping out of the early-window 60-62 range. The rebound failed at the 58.59 lower high, and Thursday's oil- and hawkish-Fed-driven slide broke the 55.39 prior low before setting a YTD low at 53.00, which held again on today's retest. Price has spent roughly 10 bars basing between the YTD low and the 54.56 range top, with both EMAs overhead, the EMA20 below the EMA50 and ATR(14) still elevated near 800 pips.
Support: 53.004, 50.00
Resistance: 54.557, 58.592
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 54.56 range top opens the 55.14 38.2% fib and the 55.39 prior low
A break of the 53.00 YTD low extends the lower-low sequence, with 50.00 the next round number
Wed 18:00 UTC FOMC guidance on a December hike could materially shift this read
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and the reaction in yields/USD ahead of the Fed
A recovery stalling under the lower-highs trendline near 56.6 keeps the downtrend structure intact
Lower highs and lower lows; tight base above the YTD low.
Silver has printed lower highs since early October along a lower-high trendline from 61.44, with lows stepping down from 58.49 to 55.39 to Friday's 53.02 YTD low. Last week's 56.4–58.6 range broke down Thursday as oil-driven December-hike pricing and Treasury-bound risk-off flows hit metals. Since that low, price has compressed into a 53.4–54.6 band below a falling EMA20 (~54.9), with the EMAs bearishly stacked and recent bar ranges narrowing well below the ~0.74 ATR.
Support: 53.446, 53.016, 50.00
Resistance: 54.557, 55.385, 56.462
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 53.016 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 50.00 psych level
Hold of the 53.446 swing low keeps the current base intact; loss of it returns focus to the YTD low
H4 close above the 54.557 range high breaks the compression, with the 55.385 prior low and the 38.2% fib near 55.15 next
Recovery through the 56.462 61.8% fib would bring the lower-high trendline (~56.7) into play
Fed decision Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC, with Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read via December-hike guidance
Lower highs and lower lows; tight base 53.02-54.56 after Thursday's breakdown.
Silver has printed lower highs and lower lows across the window. The latest leg failed at 58.59, broke the 55.39 prior low on Thursday's oil- and yield-driven slide, and set a 53.02 ytd low on Friday. Since then price has compressed into a narrow base between 53.45 and the 54.56 range top. It sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, which remain bearishly stacked. ATR(14) is easing from the breakdown expansion, consistent with a flag-like pause rather than a reversal so far.
Support: 53.45, 53.02
Resistance: 54.56, 55.39
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 54.56 range top would end the flag read and expose the 55.39 prior low, near the fib 38.2-50% zone
Loss of the 53.45 base low and an H4 close below the 53.02 ytd low confirms a fresh lower-low in the downtrend
A recovery above the lower highs trendline near 58.0 would be needed to break the swing structure
Fed decision Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC: December-hike guidance could materially shift this read
Tue 27 Oct Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence could tilt yields and USD ahead of the Fed
Lower highs from 61.435 to 58.592 to 58.028; tight base 53.0-54.5.
Silver has printed lower highs since 61.435, with the latest at 58.592 and then 58.028. The leg from 58.592 broke through the 55.385 prior low and set a 53.016 yearly low as rising oil and Fed-hike pricing weighed, with flows going to Treasuries rather than metals. Price is now holding a narrow 53.0-54.5 base below the 54.557 bounce high, with EMA20 under EMA50 and ATR easing from the expansion seen on the drop.
Support: 53.016, 50.00
Resistance: 54.557, 55.385, 58.028
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 53.016 yearly low resumes the lower-low sequence and puts the 50.00 psych level in focus
Close above the 54.557 bounce high would end the tight base; the 55.385 prior low sits near the fib 38.2% at ~55.15
A move back through the 58.028 lower high would break the downtrend trendline structure
Fed decision Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC; December hike guidance could materially shift this read
Tue Oct 27 Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) as pre-Fed catalysts
01:06 UTC
Downtrend, stretched and pausing near lows · RSI 29 · price 53.904
Lower highs and lower lows; 55.4-58.6 range broken lower, tight base above 53.0.
Silver rolled over from the 58.592 swing high midweek and broke the 55.4-58.6 range. The prior low at 55.385 gave way as oil-driven hike bets and high yields hit the metal, extending the lower-high sequence along the descending trendline from 61.85. The last seven bars have built a tight base between the 53.016 yearly low, the 53.446 swing low and a 54.557 range top. RSI is near oversold, price sits below both EMAs, and ATR has expanded to roughly 830 pips, so the trend leg is extended.
Support: 53.016, 53.446
Resistance: 54.557, 55.385, 58.592
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 53.016 yearly low confirms a fresh lower-low and extends the downtrend
H4 close above the 54.557 range top opens a retracement toward the 55.385 prior low, near the 38.2% fib at 55.15
Recovery stalling below the 61.8% fib (56.46) keeps the lower-high trendline structure intact; the 58.592 swing high is the structural cap
Fed decision Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC: December-hike guidance could materially shift this read
Tuesday US durable goods and consumer confidence as pre-FOMC tone setters