21:09 UTC
Downtrend from late-August peak, momentum weak · RSI 36 · price 60.749
Lower highs since 71.17; H&S neckline broken.
Silver rallied from the 54.756 july low to a 71.165 late-August peak, but September carved lower highs at 68.31 and 67.53 into a head and shoulders, and Monday's ~5.7% drop closed decisively through the 62.30 neckline. Hawkish Fed repricing, 10y yields near 5.23% and a firmer dollar drove the break; price now sits below the ema20 and ema50 (both near 64.5 and rolling over) and just under the 61.8% fib of the summer rally at 61.02. RSI near 35 is weak but not yet at a D1 extreme, with the week having opened near 64 before the neckline gave way.
Support: 60.605, 58.27, 54.756
Resistance: 61.02, 62.30, 64.50
What it said to watch
- Core PCE (f/c 3.3%) and ADP on Wed from 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot print adds pressure on the monday low at 60.605
- A D1 close back above the 62.30 neckline would mark the head and shoulders break as a false break
- Failure to hold 60.605 exposes the 78.6% fib at 58.27, then the july low at 54.76, near the pattern's measured-move zone
- A reclaim of the ema50 near 64.5 and the lower highs line would neutralise the downtrend read