Double top at 4147-4148, lower low at 3852.50, tight consolidation below 3923.
Gold rejected the 4147-4148 double top. The hot US CPI print on Tuesday then drove a three-day slide through the 4000 handle to a 3852.50 yearly low, undercutting the late-October prior low at 3870.26. Price has since held a narrow 3867-3923 band, capped by the bounce high and descending highs, with EMA(20) now below EMA(50) after this week's ema cross and both EMAs sloping lower. RSI recovered to 31 from a 25 trough, and ATR(14) is easing from its post-CPI expansion, consistent with consolidation rather than reversal so far.
Support: 3,870.26, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,923.11, 3,946.52, 3,994.64
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 3852.50 yearly low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 3923 bounce high and the ema20 at 3946.52 breaks the descending highs and opens a 38.2% retrace near 3966
ema50 at 3994.64 and the 50% retrace near 4000 mark the upper edge of any corrective bounce
Fed's Jefferson in ~90 minutes, Chair Warsh Monday 17:00 UTC and US Retail Sales Tuesday could materially shift this read
Lower high at 4148.5 then new low at 3852.5; tight base below 3923.
Gold has kept a lower-high sequence across the window, with the 4148.5 peak capped below the mid-October 4190 high. The leg lower came after Tuesday's hot US CPI, and it took out the 3870 prior low to print a yearly low at 3852.5. Price now holds a narrow base under the 3923 bounce high, with both EMAs falling and the ema20 below the ema50 overhead. RSI has recovered from sub-30 readings to 31.5, and ATR is easing from its post-CPI expansion, which points to a pause rather than a turn so far.
Support: 3,870.26, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,923.11, 3,953.35, 3,999.25
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 3852.5 yearly low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 3923 bounce high and the ema20 at 3953 would test the 3999 ema50 / 4000 round number
Failure to hold the 3870 prior low keeps the base fragile
Fed's Jefferson in ~6h and Chair Warsh on Mon 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US Retail Sales Tue 13:30 UTC is next data risk for yields and gold
Lower-highs trendline from 4190 near 4150 caps the broader structure
Lower high at 4148.52, lower low at 3852.50; bounce capped below 3923.
Gold reversed from the 4148.52 lower high after Tuesday's hot CPI pushed US 10y yields above 5%. It then cut through 4000 to a fresh yearly low at 3852.50, and EMA20 crossed below EMA50 during the drop. The bounce stalled at the 3923 bounce high, and price is drifting back toward the 3870 prior low as the soft headline PPI gives only brief relief. RSI has recovered from 25 to 30.2, and ATR(14) has eased from its expansion peak, with both EMAs sloping lower and acting as overhead caps at 3960.51 and 4003.90.
Support: 3,870.26, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,923.11, 3,960.51, 4,003.90
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 3852.50 yearly low confirms another lower low in the downtrend
Recovery above the 3923 bounce high and the ema20 at 3960.51 would mark the first higher high since the drop from 4148
Ema50 near 4003.90 aligns with the 50% retracement of the drop from 4148; a reclaim would challenge the lower highs trendline
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) today, then Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC, could materially shift this read via 50bp December hike odds
10:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold flush easing into a bounce · RSI 33 · price 3,903.83
Lower low at 3852.50 below the 3870 prior low; lower highs from 4198.
Gold was rejected from the 4,147–4,148 double top after Tuesday's hot US CPI. A three-session slide on 5% yields and a 19-month-high USD then printed a lower low at 3852.50, beneath the late-October prior low at 3870.26, and lower highs since the 4,198 window high keep the downtrend intact. EMA20 has crossed below EMA50 with price under both. RSI has recovered to 32.8 from 25, ATR has eased to ~3,500 pips after the flush expanded it, and the bounce is stalling at the 3923 bounce high, well short of the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg near EMA20.
Support: 3,870.26, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,923.11, 3,968.87, 4,008.92
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read; a hot core print puts the 3852.50 yearly low back in play
Failure to hold the 3852.50 yearly low extends the lower-low sequence
H4 close above the 3923 bounce high and EMA20 at 3968.87 (38.2% fib zone) would mark the first higher high since the CPI break
Reclaim of EMA50 at 4008.92 near the 50% fib would challenge the downtrend read
06:03 UTC
Downtrend, early bounce off fresh low · RSI 33 · price 3,900.74
Double top at 4147-4148 broken, lower low below the October swing.
Gold built a double top at 4147-4148 and broke the 4027.52 neckline. The slide set a 3852.50 YTD low beneath the 3870.26 oct low after the hot US CPI and strong NFP cemented December hike pricing. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 now crossed under EMA50 and a lower-highs trendline from 4148 capping the bounce; RSI has lifted from 25 to 33 while ATR stays elevated near 3,600 pips.
Support: 3,870.26, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,975.94, 4,013.29, 4,027.52
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print puts the 3870.26 oct low and 3852.50 ytd low back in focus
H4 close below the 3852.50 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through ema20 at 3975.94 and the 38.2% fib near 3966 would break the lower-highs trendline
Reclaiming ema50 at 4013.29 and the 4027.52 neckline would undermine the double top read
Double top at 4147-4149 broken; lower low at 3852.50 below the late-Oct low.
Gold carved a double top at 4,147–4,149 and then broke through 4,000 after Tuesday's hot CPI lifted yields above 5%, printing a 3,852.50 yearly low that undercuts the late-Oct low at 3,870. Price trades below both EMAs, with the EMA20 having crossed under the EMA50 midweek, and ATR re-expanded to ~3,680 pips through the slide. RSI has recovered to 33.6 from sub-30 readings, and the bounce to 3,910 is so far holding beneath the 3,950 pivot zone and the descending line off the double-top high.
Support: 3,870.26, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,950.00, 3,983.51, 4,017.75
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3,852.50 yearly low extends the lower-low sequence
H4 close above the 3,950 pivot zone and descending line, near the 38.2% fib at ~3,966, opens the ema20 at 3,983.51
Recovery above the ema50 at 4,017.75 (near the 50% fib at ~4,000) would challenge the downtrend read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, followed by Bowman and Daly remarks, could materially shift this read