XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 13 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:13 UTC
Post-PPI downswing, flattening into the weekly close · RSI 52 · price 3,881.67
Lower highs since the 3905.95 PPI spike, late-NY range 3869.5–3882.3.
The soft PPI print spiked gold to 3905.95, the ppi high. It was rejected there, and NY ground out lower highs down to the 3867.67 session low. The final bar of the week closed at 3881.67, back above the ema20 at 3879.01, testing the lower-highs line and the 38.2% of the PPI swing fib, with the ema50 at 3884.19 just overhead. RSI is neutral at 51.7 and ATR is about $6.40.
Support: 3,879.01, 3,869.53, 3,867.67
Resistance: 3,884.19, 3,890.82, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC falls while the market is shut, so the Monday Asia open carries gap risk
Holding above the ema50 at 3884.19 and the 3890.82 lower high would break the lower-highs line
Loss of the 3869.53 late ny low and the 3867.67 session low extends the post-PPI downswing
Warsh on Monday at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a 3905.95 ppi high retest needs a dovish tilt
22:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, flattening into the weekly close · RSI 52 · price 3,881.67
Lower highs since the PPI spike rejection; late-NY higher low at 3869.53 vs the 3867.67 NY low.
Asia ran to 3923 before London unwound it. The soft PPI print at 13:30 UTC spiked gold to 3905.95, the ppi spike high, and was rejected, with NY then carving lower highs off a 3867.67 NY low. Late NY held a higher low at 3869.53 and closed the week at 3881.67. That close presses the lower-highs line between ema20 at 3879.01 and ema50 at 3884.19, with RSI back to a neutral 51.7 and ATR compressing to 640 pips.
Support: 3,879.01, 3,867.67
Resistance: 3,884.19, 3,890.82, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
Close above the lower-highs line and ema50 at 3884.19 exposes the 3890.82 swing high, then the 3905.95 ppi spike high
Loss of ema20 at 3879.01 and the 3867.67 NY low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 3852 yearly low
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC could gap Monday's open through these levels
Lower highs since the PPI spike, higher low at 3869.53.
The soft PPI at 13:30 UTC spiked gold to 3905.95, but the move was rejected inside the bar. NY then set a 3867.67 ny low, with lower highs from there through 3890.82. A late-NY bounce off the 3869.53 higher low has reclaimed ema20, poked through the NY downtrend line and is sitting on the 38.2% fib near 3882, with ema50 at 3884.19 overhead and ATR(14) compressed to 640 pips.
Support: 3,879.01, 3,869.53, 3,867.67
Resistance: 3,884.19, 3,890.82, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema50 3884.19 and the 3890.82 swing high (61.8% fib zone) breaks the NY lower-high sequence; 3905.95 ppi spike above
Slip back below ema20 3879.01 returns price under the NY downtrend line and keeps the fade intact
Loss of the 3869.53 higher low and 3867.67 ny low reopens the 3852 yearly low
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC speaks into thin Friday-close liquidity and could skew the reopen
Lower highs off 3890.82; twin lows at 3867–3870 holding into the Friday close.
After NY close on Friday, gold has held the 3867–3870 area twice: the day low at 3867.67 and the late swing low at 3869.53. That came after the soft-PPI spike to 3905.95 faded, and the final bar is now poking above the descending trendline off 3890.82. The last closed bar sits below a falling ema20 and the ema50 at 3884.29, with RSI 46 neutral and ATR compressing to ~638 pips.
Support: 3,869.53, 3,867.67
Resistance: 3,884.29, 3,890.82, 3,900.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 3890.82 swing high (61.8% of the PPI drop fib) confirms the double bottom and breaks the lower-high chain; the 3900 round number sits above.
A close back above the ema50 at 3884.29 would mark the first reclaim since London.
Failure to hold the 3867.67 day low resumes the downtrend.
Weekend gap risk: Jefferson speaks at 00:00 UTC with the market shut, and Warsh speaks Mon 17:00 UTC.
Lower highs since PPI spike, holding above NY low.
The softer-PPI spike to 3905.95 was rejected, and NY has since printed lower highs at 3899.68 and 3890.82. The last of these stalled near the 61.8% of the PPI drop fib. Late NY is grinding between the 3871.20 late low and the 3867.67 NY low, below ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 39.1 and ATR compressing to 621.5 pips into the Friday close.
Support: 3,871.20, 3,867.67, 3,852.00
Resistance: 3,880.02, 3,885.72, 3,890.82
What it said to watch
M15 close back above ema20 at 3880.02 and ema50 at 3885.72 neutralises the lower-highs sequence
Break of the 3890.82 lower high and the lower-highs trendline voids the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 3867.67 ny low confirms a lower-low and opens the 3852 yearly low
Thin Friday late-NY liquidity; Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 17:45 UTC, drifting toward NY low.
The softer PPI spike to the 3905.95 ppi high was rejected, and NY printed a 3867.67 NY low. The bounce to the 3890.82 swing high has since been capped by a falling trendline. Late NY has given back more than 61.8% of that NY bounce, with price pressing the 3872.6 late low below ema20 (3881) and ema50 (3886.55), RSI 39.9 and ATR compressing from 912 to 614 pips.
Support: 3,872.60, 3,867.67
Resistance: 3,881.00, 3,890.82, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3867.67 NY low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 3852 yearly low
Close above the falling trendline and ema20 at 3881 neutralises the lower-high read, with the 3890.82 swing high next
Holding the 3872.6 late low into the weekly close keeps the NY bounce fib structure intact
Jefferson (00:00 UTC) lands after the Friday close; Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC is the larger gap and repricing risk
20:03 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 39 · price 3,874.30
Lower highs since PPI rejection, holding above NY low.
The soft-PPI spike to 3905.95, the ppi high, was rejected inside the bar. Gold has printed a run of lower highs since, and late-NY trade is grinding below the ema20 (3881.6) into the 3872 prior low, with the NY low at 3867.67 just beneath. RSI(14) at 39.4 and ATR compressing from ~920 to 621 pips show a slow drift rather than a flush.
Support: 3,872.19, 3,867.67, 3,852.00
Resistance: 3,881.60, 3,890.82, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3867.67 ny low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 3852 yearly low the next reference
Reclaim of the ema20 and the 3890.82 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the read
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could jolt thin end-of-week liquidity
19:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 40 · price 3,874.20
Lower-high / lower-low chain from 3923 Asia high; price drifting back to PPI low late in NY.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 3923 Asia high. The soft-PPI spike to the 3905.95 ppi high was rejected. NY then set a session low at 3867.67, and the bounce stalled at the 3890.82 swing high, below the 3900 cap flagged in the macro read. Late in NY, price is back under a falling ema20 and ema50 and testing the ppi low area, with RSI 40 and ATR compressing from 924 to 646 pips into the Friday close.
Support: 3,867.67
Resistance: 3,882.29, 3,890.82, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3867.67 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 3852 yearly low
M15 close back above the ema20 at 3882.29 eases immediate pressure; a close above the 3890.82 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Thin liquidity into the Friday close; Jefferson (00:00 UTC) and Warsh Monday 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read at the reopen
Lower highs since the PPI spike, holding above the 3867.67 session low.
The softer PPI print briefly lifted gold to a 3905.95 spike at 13:30 UTC, but the move was rejected, and NY has since printed lower highs at 3899.68 and 3890.82 (near the 61.8% fib) above a 3867.67 session low. Late in the NY session, price sits at 3877 below the ema20 (3883) and ema50 (3888), with RSI(14) at 42.8 and ATR compressing to 669 pips. The Asian rally to 3923 has been fully unwound.
Support: 3,872.13, 3,867.67, 3,852.00
Resistance: 3,883.00, 3,890.82, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3872.13 swing low exposes the 3867.67 session low
A break of the session low leaves the 3852 yearly low as the next reference
Close above the 3890.82 lower high breaks the descending resistance line and the 61.8% fib
Rejection at the ema20 near 3883 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Fed's Jefferson (00:00 UTC) and Warsh on Mon 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the PPI spike, coiling between 3867 and 3891 late in the NY session.
The soft PPI at 13:30 UTC spiked gold to 3905.95, but the spike was rejected and the PPI low at 3872.87 followed. NY has since printed lower highs at 3899.68 and 3890.82 under a falling trendline, and the bounce from the 3867.67 session low stalled near the 61.8% fib. Price sits below the ema20 at 3883.49 and the ema50 at 3888.38, with RSI(14) at 43.1 and ATR(14) compressing to ~689 pips into the late-Friday NY hours.
Support: 3,877.29, 3,872.87, 3,867.67
Resistance: 3,883.49, 3,888.38, 3,890.82
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3877.29 recent low exposes the 3872.87 PPI low
Break below the 3867.67 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 3852 yearly low
M15 close above the 3890.82 swing high breaks the falling trendline and the lower-high read; ema20 and ema50 cap the way there
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~5h), with Warsh Monday 17:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 45 · price 3,877.95
Lower highs below the PPI high, holding above the NY session low.
The Asia high at 3923.11 faded, and the soft-PPI spike to 3905.95 was rejected. NY then printed a session low at 3867.67, with lower highs at 3899.68 and 3890.82 capping the rebound near the 61.8% retrace of the PPI drop. Late in NY, price sits below ema20 (3883.99) and ema50 (3888.78), with RSI at 45 and ATR compressing from 924 to 715 pips as Friday liquidity thins.
Support: 3,872.13, 3,867.67
Resistance: 3,883.99, 3,890.82, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3890.82 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 3905.95 ppi high back in view
Failure to hold the 3872 swing low exposes the 3867.67 session low; a break there extends the downtrend
Holding below ema20 at 3883.99 keeps the lower-highs trendline intact
Fed's Jefferson speech at 00:00 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the PPI spike; coiling above a higher low in late NY.
The soft PPI print at 13:30 UTC drove a ppi spike to 3905.95 that fully reversed. NY then carved a session low at 3867.67 and has printed lower highs since, with the latest bounce stalling at 3890.82 at about a 60% retrace of the PPI swing. Price sits below the ema20 at 3884.33 and the ema50, RSI is 43.9, and ATR has compressed to ~743 pips as price coils above the 3876 higher low.
Support: 3,876.30, 3,867.67
Resistance: 3,884.33, 3,890.82, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3890.82 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 3876 higher low reopens the 3867.67 session low
Repeated rejection under the ema20 at 3884.33 keeps the compression capped
A move back through the 3905.95 ppi spike would fully negate the post-PPI selloff
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~5h) and weekend headline risk on a Friday close could shift this read
Post-PPI lower low at 3867.67, higher lows since, capped by a lower high at 3890.82.
Slightly soft US PPI sparked a spike to the 3905.95 ppi high that was fully rejected. NY then extended to a 3867.67 ny low, below the Asian range base, as Fed speakers kept the hawkish tone. The late-NY rebound stalled at a 3890.82 lower high near the 61.8% fib, with price back under ema20 (3884.80) and ema50 (3889.48) and RSI 46.6 neutral.
Support: 3,879.17, 3,867.67
Resistance: 3,884.80, 3,890.82, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3890.82 lower high and ema50 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 3879.17 swing low and rising support line exposes the 3867.67 ny low
Close back above the 3905.95 ppi high negates the post-PPI rejection
Fed's Jefferson speaks at 00:00 UTC (~5.5h) into thin late-Friday liquidity; ATR near $7.70 per bar
Higher lows off 3867.67 session low, capped at 3890.82 lower high.
The soft PPI print spiked gold to a 3905.95 PPI high. That move was rejected as hawkish Fed speakers piled in, and price slid to a 3867.67 session low. The after-London-close recovery has built higher lows but stalled at the 3890.82 lower high, near the 61.8% retrace, with price still below the ema20 (3885.03) and ema50 and ATR(14) compressing to 790 pips.
Support: 3,876.40, 3,867.67
Resistance: 3,885.03, 3,890.82, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 3885.03 and the 3890.82 lower high extends the higher-low chain toward the 3900 pivot and the 3905.95 PPI high
Break of the 3876.40 higher low snaps the recovery trendline; loss of the 3867.67 session low reopens the 3852 yearly low
Fed's Jefferson (00:00 UTC) lands after the weekly close, so gap risk into Monday's open ahead of Warsh
Lower high after PPI spike rejection; higher lows forming off the 3867.67 session low.
The soft PPI print at 13:30 UTC spiked gold to the 3905.95 ppi high, but sellers rejected it. A lower high at 3899.68 preceded the 3867.67 session low in NY. Higher lows have since formed, with the last close just above the ema20 (3885.13) but capped below the ema50 (3889.99), and ATR (825.7 pips) is contracting from its post-data peak.
Support: 3,876.40, 3,867.67
Resistance: 3,889.99, 3,899.68, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 3889.99 and the 61.8% fib near 3891 turns the focus to the 3899.68 lower high and the 3900 pivot
Break of the 3876.40 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 3867.67 session low
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, in about 6h, could shift the read as liquidity thins into the weekly close
Lower highs from Asia high, NY low then rising lows.
The soft headline PPI drove a ppi spike to 3905.95 that was rejected, and NY extended the lower-high sequence from the 3923 Asia high to a session low at 3867.67. Since then rising lows have lifted price to about the 50% retrace near 3887. It now sits above ema20 at 3885.1 but below ema50 at 3890.18, with RSI(14) neutral at 51 and ATR(14) at about 845 pips ($8.45).
Support: 3,885.10, 3,876.26, 3,867.67
Resistance: 3,890.18, 3,899.68, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema50 at 3890.18 and the 3899.68 swing high reopens 3900 and the ppi spike high at 3905.95
Loss of ema20 and the 3876.26 higher low breaks the rising-lows rebound, exposing the 3867.67 session low
Fed's Jefferson speaks at 00:00 UTC (~6h), into thin late-Friday liquidity
Lower highs from 3923 Asia peak; small higher low at 3876.40 off NY low.
Asia ran gold to 3923.11 before London faded it. The slightly soft US PPI headline spiked price to the 3905.95 ppi high, but the move reversed and NY printed a session low at 3867.67. The recovery is stalling at the 3886.33 lower high, near the 50% retrace of the ppi drop fib, with price below the ema20 (3884.83) and ema50 (3890.29) and RSI(14) neutral at 45.7.
Support: 3,876.40, 3,867.67, 3,852.00
Resistance: 3,884.83, 3,886.33, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3886.33 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; ema50 at 3890.29 sits next
Failure to hold the 3876.40 higher low reopens the 3867.67 session low
A break of 3867.67 exposes the 3852 yearly low
Reclaiming the 3905.95 ppi high would negate the intraday downtrend read
ATR(14) of ~855 pips ($8.6) sets the expected bar range
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since PPI · RSI 48 · price 3,881.96
Lower highs off PPI spike, higher low forming above session low.
The soft-PPI pop to the 3905.95 ppi high was rejected within the first NY bar. Post-PPI highs have stepped lower, and price sits under the ema20 and ema50 with RSI(14) at 47.9. The 3867.67 session low has held, with a higher low at 3876.40 as Daly speaks. ATR(14) is near $8.80 per bar.
Support: 3,876.40, 3,867.67
Resistance: 3,890.63, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 3890.63 breaks the post-PPI highs trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 3876.40 higher low reopens the 3867.67 session low
A break of the session low exposes the 3852 yearly low flagged in the digest
Daly remarks underway and Jefferson in ~7h could materially shift this read
Reclaiming the 3905.95 ppi high would negate the post-release fade
17:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 43 · price 3,877.13
Lower highs and lower lows since PPI false break above 3900.
The softer PPI print spiked gold to a 3905.95 ppi high that failed straight back below 3900, a false break that set off lower highs through NY at 3899.68 and 3886.33, with ny lows near 3872 and a session low at 3867.67. The bounce stalled at the 50% retrace of the PPI leg, just above a falling ema20. Price sits below both the ema20 and ema50 with RSI 43.2, and ATR is elevated at 875 pips.
Support: 3,872.13, 3,867.67
Resistance: 3,885.22, 3,890.89, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3886.33 lower high and ema20 at 3885.22 breaks the lower-highs chain and puts the ema50 at 3890.89 in view
Failure to hold the 3867.67 session low extends the NY lower-low sequence, with the 3865.71 prior-day low just beneath
Acceptance back above the 3905.95 ppi high would negate the false break read
Fed's Daly is speaking now and Jefferson follows in ~7h. Hawkish hike signalling could extend the lower-highs structure into thin Friday-close liquidity
The soft PPI spike to 3905.95 briefly cleared the London high, then faded. NY has since printed a lower high at 3899.68 and a lower low at the 3867.67 ny low. Price is bouncing into the ema20 at 3885.82, near the 50% fib of that leg, with ATR expanded to 884.5 pips and RSI(14) neutral at 47.2.
Support: 3,872.87, 3,867.67
Resistance: 3,885.82, 3,891.35, 3,899.68
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 3891.35 and the 3899.68 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Rejection at the ema20 / fib 50-61.8% zone (3883.7–3887.5) keeps the downtrend structure intact
Loss of the 3872.87 ppi low and the 3867.67 ny low extends the lower-low chain
Fed's Daly at 17:00 UTC, about 14 minutes away, could materially shift this read
Jefferson at 00:00 UTC is the next scheduled Fed-speak risk
16:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bouncing off NY low · RSI 45 · price 3,882.68
Lower highs and lower lows since the PPI spike, price below both EMAs.
The soft headline PPI at 13:30 UTC spiked gold to the ppi high at 3905.95, but the move faded. It left a lower high at 3899.68 and a NY low at 3867.67, just above the prior low at 3863.82. The late-NY bounce sits below the ema20 (3885.96) and ema50 (3891.63), with RSI at 45.3 and ATR expanded to ~914 pips.
Support: 3,867.67, 3,863.82
Resistance: 3,885.96, 3,899.68, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3899.68 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and voids the downtrend read
Rejection at the ema20 (3885.96), roughly the 50% of the post-PPI drop, keeps the sequence intact
Failure to hold the 3867.67 NY low opens a test of the 3863.82 prior low
Fed's Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Jefferson follows at 00:00 UTC
16:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 42 · price 3,877.26
Lower highs and lower lows through NY, below both EMAs.
The soft headline PPI spike to the 3905.95 ppi high was rejected within the bar. NY has since printed a lower high at 3899.68 and a new session low at 3867.67, with price below a falling ema20 (3886.32) and RSI(14) at 41.7. The 16:00 UTC bar's long lower wick shows demand at the session low, while ATR has expanded to ~924 pips ($9.2) since the release.
Support: 3,867.67, 3,859.08
Resistance: 3,886.32, 3,899.68, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3867.67 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 3859.08 prior low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 3886.32 would ease the descending-highs read
Close above the 3899.68 lower high breaks the NY sequence and puts the ppi high back in play
Fed's Daly at 17:00 UTC (~45 min) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 3923 Asian top; NY low at 3872 under pressure.
The soft-PPI pop to 3905.95 was rejected above the 3900 psych level and faded. That extends the lower-highs sequence from the 3923 Asian top as Fed-speak keeps hike pricing intact. Price is pressing through the 3872 NY low around London close, below a falling ema20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) at 36.1, and the 3865.7 swing low and Thursday's 3852.5 yearly low sit beneath.
Support: 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,872.13, 3,887.10, 3,900.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 3865.7 swing low exposes the 3852.5 yearly low
A reclaim of the 3872 NY low followed by a close above the ema20 at 3887.1 would stall the lower-lows sequence
Acceptance back above 3900 psych breaks the lower-highs trendline
Fed's Daly at 17:00 UTC, in under an hour, could shift this read; ATR ~904 pips ($9) per bar
15:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 38 · price 3,877.92
The PPI spike to 3905.95 was rejected. NY session then printed a lower high at 3899.68 and returned to the 3872.6 session low, below both falling EMAs, with RSI(14) at 38.3 and ATR(14) at ~895 pips showing a wide tape. The soft headline PPI gave no lasting lift with Fed hike pricing intact, and the 14:15 UTC bounce stalled inside the 50–61.8% zone of the Asia-NY fib.
Support: 3,872.64, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,888.52, 3,899.68, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3872.6 session low exposes Thursday's prior low at 3852.5, the yearly low
Reclaiming the ema20 at 3888.5 and breaking the 3899.7 lower high would break the lower-highs sequence
Acceptance above the 3906 PPI high would void the lower-highs trendline read
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 3923 Asian peak; NY retesting the PPI low.
The PPI swing between the 3905.95 ppi high and the 3872.87 ppi low has resolved lower. The NY bounce met rejection at 3899.68, under the 3900 pivot, and price is back near the PPI low, below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 38.7. Lower highs from the 3923 Asian peak still define the session, and ATR(14) has expanded to 912 pips (~$9.1).
Support: 3,872.87, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,889.73, 3,899.68, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3872.87 ppi low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 3852.50 yearly low
Reclaim of ema20 at 3889.73, then a close above the 3899.68 ny high, would break the lower-highs trendline read
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asia peak; post-PPI range 3872.87–3905.95 compressing.
The soft PPI headline spiked gold to 3905.95, but the bar closed back at 3888, a clear rejection under the $3,900 pivot. The follow-through dip held the 3872.87 PPI low, and the NY-session bounce stalled at a lower high of 3899.68, extending the lower-highs line from the 3923 Asia peak. Price sits mid-swing near 3888, just under the ema20 (3891) and ema50 (3894.63), with RSI 48.1 and ATR at 884 pips after the release-driven expansion.
Support: 3,883.19, 3,872.87, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,891.00, 3,899.68, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 3899.68 lower high and the lower-highs line breaks the descending sequence; the 3905.95 ppi spike high is next
Failure to hold the 3883.19 swing low puts the 3872.87 ppi low back in play
A break of 3872.87 exposes Thursday's 3852.5 yearly low
15:02 UTC
Downtrend from Asian high, post-PPI rebound stalling · RSI 52 · price 3,890.01
Lower highs capped near 3906; PPI low at 3872.87 set a lower low.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 3923 Asian high, with supply capping near 3906 three times. The PPI spike reversed to a 3872.87 PPI low, and the rebound stalled at 3899.7, near the 50% fib of the Asian high to PPI low drop. As of the 14:45 close, price sat between the ema20 (3891.1) and ema50 (3894.8), RSI(14) 52 neutral and ATR(14) expanded to ~863 pips on the release.
Support: 3,891.10, 3,872.87, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,894.82, 3,906.00, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read in the first hours of NY
M15 close above 3906 breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the 3923 Asian high
Failure to hold the ema20 at 3891 reopens the 3872.87 PPI low; below it, the 3852.5 yearly low comes into view
Sustained trade back above the ema50 at 3894.8 and the 50% fib near 3898 would weaken the downtrend read
Lower highs from 3923 Asia high; NY recovery testing 50% retrace.
The soft PPI headline spiked gold to the 3905.95 ppi high, which was rejected. The next bar swept below the 3875 Asian range low to a 3872.87 ppi low, and early NY has since recovered to the 50% fib of the asia high–ppi low move, back above the ema20 and ema50. ATR(14) has expanded to 872.5 pips on the release, RSI(14) has recovered to 55.3 from 32.3, and the Asia-high lower-high trendline still caps just above the 3900 round number.
Support: 3,894.84, 3,890.76, 3,872.87
Resistance: 3,900.00, 3,905.95, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
M15 close above 3905.95 ppi high breaks the lower-high trendline from the 3923.11 asia high
Slip back under the ema50 at 3894.84 and ema20 at 3890.76 returns price to the post-PPI range
Loss of 3872.87 ppi low reopens Thursday's 3852 yearly low
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC, ~1h) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since the Asian high · RSI 46 · price 3,888.90
Lower highs and lower lows from 3923; PPI spike rejected, early NY pinned under the EMAs.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 3923 Asian high. The soft PPI headline spiked it to the 3905.95 ppi high, but that was rejected within the bar and followed by a lower low at 3872.87. Early NY now holds just under the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) neutral at 46 and ATR expanded to ~852 pips after the release.
Support: 3,872.87, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,905.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 and the 3905.95 ppi high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 3872.87 ppi low exposes Thursday's 3852.5 yearly low
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could reprice hike odds and shift this read
14:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs from Asian high · RSI 43 · price 3,883.43
Lower highs and lower lows since 3923; PPI whipsaw printed new session low.
Gold has carved lower highs since the 3923 Asian high. The softer PPI headline drew a spike to 3905.95 that met rejection, then a sweep to the 3872.87 ppi low. First hour of NY trades below the ema20 at 3890.28 and ema50 at 3895.01, with RSI 42.9 and ATR expanding to ~832 pips.
Support: 3,872.87, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,890.28, 3,895.01, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 3890.28 and ema50 at 3895.01 would ease the lower-highs read
Close above the 3905.95 ppi spike breaks the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 3872.87 ppi low exposes Thursday's 3852.50 yearly low
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asian high, new session low after PPI.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 3923 Asian high. The soft headline PPI spiked price to 3905.95, but the move was rejected inside the bar and the next bar set a fresh session low at 3872.96, below the Asian range low. Early NY trades under a falling ema20 (3890.79) and ema50 (3895.4), RSI(14) 37.7, with ATR(14) expanding to 840 pips on the release.
Support: 3,872.96, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,890.79, 3,895.40, 3,905.95
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3872.96 session low exposes Thursday's 3852.5 yearly low
Reclaim of ema20 at 3890.79 eases the lower-high sequence; a close above the 3905.95 ppi high breaks it
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia high · RSI 44 · price 3,889.46
Lower highs and lower lows below 3906, PPI spike rejected.
The soft headline PPI spiked gold to the 3905.95 PPI high, a false break of the London session high near the 61.8% fib of the Asia-high selloff. The bar left a long upper wick and closed back below the ema20 (3891.82) and ema50 (3895.99), with ATR jumping to 758 pips. Since the 3923 Asia high the sequence is lower highs and lower lows, and the 3879.36 PPI low is the latest low.
Support: 3,879.36, 3,872.19
Resistance: 3,891.82, 3,905.95, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3906 PPI high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 3923 Asia high
A break of the 3879 PPI low extends the lower lows toward Thursday's 3872 thu lows, then the 3852 yearly low
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, PPI bounce under test · RSI 32 · price 3,894.33
Lower highs from the Asia high at 3923; PPI spike stalling below the ema50 and 3900.
Gold has carved lower highs since the 3923 Asia high, and the last closed bar printed a pre-PPI low at 3879.7, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 32.3. The soft headline PPI (0.3% vs 0.4%) sparked a spike to 3899.9 that is fading back toward 3894, between the ema20 and the ema50 at 3896.3, which also sits on the 38.2% fib of the Asia high to pre-PPI low move.
Support: 3,879.70, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,896.30, 3,899.90, 3,905.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3905.5 London high breaks the lower-high sequence
Rejection at the ema50 / 38.2% fib near 3896 keeps the PPI spike as a lower high
Loss of the 3879.7 pre-PPI low opens a lower low toward the 3852.5 yearly low
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
ATR(14) at 611 pips (~$6.1) has been compressing; the PPI bar range is already roughly 3x that
Friday's Asian bounce to 3923 faded, and London has printed lower highs from the 3905.27 London high to the 3897.59 lower high. Price is now pressing the 3885.5 session low below a falling ema20 (3893.51) and ema50 (3896.98), with RSI(14) at 38.5 and ATR(14) near $6. Gold remains heavy after Thursday's slide to the 3852.50 yearly low on hawkish Fed repricing and a firm USD.
Support: 3,872.19, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,893.51, 3,897.59, 3,905.27
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (13 min) could materially shift this read; ATR is likely to expand on the print
M15 close below the 3885.5 session low opens the 3872 prior low, then the 3852.50 yearly low
Close back above the ema20 and the 3897.59 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; 3905 London high is the next cap
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) are follow-on risk after PPI
13:02 UTC
Downtrend from Asian high, compressing · RSI 41 · price 3,889.28
Lower highs since London high, flat base near 3886.
Gold's Asia spike to the 3923 Asian high has unwound through London. Price now sits below a falling ema20 at 3894 and ema50 at 3897, with lower highs off the 3905 London high pressing into a 3886 session low. ATR(14) has contracted from 770 to 593 pips into US PPI at 13:30 UTC, and the bounce off yesterday's 3852.5 yearly low has stalled below the 3900 pivot.
Support: 3,885.79, 3,875.12, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,894.23, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.3%) lands on the next bar and could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman follows at 15:50 UTC
M15 close below the 3885.8 session low exposes the 3875 asian low, then the 3852.5 yearly low
Close back above the ema20 and the lower highs trendline turns focus to the 3905 london high and 3900 pivot
Recovery through 3905 would reopen the 3923 asian high
12:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 43 · price 3,888.12
Lower highs through London, session low under test into PPI.
Gold has slipped back below $3,900 after rejection at the 3923.11 Asia high. London has printed lower highs from the 3905.75 london high while price grinds against the 3886.46 session low, held below the ema20 and ema50 by the hawkish Fed and strong-USD backdrop. RSI(14) at 42.7 and ATR compressing to ~600 pips point to a coiled market ahead of PPI.
Support: 3,886.46, 3,875.12, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,894.76, 3,897.74, 3,905.75
What it said to watch
US PPI in 43 min (13:30 UTC). A core print away from 0.3% MoM could materially shift this read.
M15 close below the 3886.46 session low exposes the 3875.12 asian low, with the 3852.50 yearly low beyond.
Reclaim of the ema20/ema50 at 3894.76–3897.74 breaks the lower highs line. A close above the 3905.75 london high voids the intraday downtrend read.
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could re-steer the move during NY hours.
Compressing 3886–3906 London range under a lower-highs trendline.
The rebound from Thursday's 3852.50 yearly low topped at the 3923.11 Asian high. Since then the lower highs have held price under a falling ema20 (3895.22), inside a 3886–3906 range capped at the london high. The 3886.46 session low sits near the 50% fib of that rebound, RSI 47 is neutral and ATR is compressing into US PPI with gold already heavy below 3,900.
Support: 3,886.46, 3,875.12, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,895.22, 3,905.75, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (58 min) could break the range either way; a hot core print revives the yearly low at 3852.50
M15 close below the 3886.46 session low exposes the asian low at 3875.12 and the 61.8% fib near 3879
Close above the ema20 and the lower-highs trendline, then the 3905.75 london high, reopens the asian high at 3923
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC could reshape the post-PPI read
London range 3886–3906 inside Asian rally retrace.
Gold has given back half of the Asian bounce from Thursday's 3852.50 yearly low. Since the 05:30 UTC drop off the 3923.11 Asian high it has held a 3886–3906 London range, with the session low sitting on the 50% fib. Price is just under the ema20 at 3895.34 and the ema50 at 3898.20, both drifting lower. RSI near 48 and ATR compressing to ~$6.3 show quiet positioning ahead of US PPI, with the USD firm near 19-month highs.
Support: 3,886.46, 3,875.12, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,898.20, 3,905.75, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.3%) could break the London range either way
M15 close below the 3886.46 session low loses the 50% fib and exposes the 3875 asia base, then the 3852.50 yearly low
M15 close above the 3905.75 range top and the lower-highs line reopens the 3923.11 asian high
ema50 at 3898.20 capping intraday bounces keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC can extend any post-PPI move
Lower highs and lower lows inside the Asian range, pre-PPI.
The overnight bounce off Thursday's 3852.50 yearly low met rejection at the 3923.11 Asian high. London has since ground lower inside the Asian range, with lower highs from the 3905.75 session high and lower lows into the 3886.46 session low, near the 50% retrace of that bounce. Price sits below ema20 (3895.42) and ema50 (3898.35), RSI 45.7 and ATR has compressed to ~$6.5 ahead of US PPI, with a hot-CPI, firm-USD backdrop.
Support: 3,886.46, 3,875.12, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,898.35, 3,905.75, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~88 min, core MoM f/c 0.3%) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 3886.46 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 3875.12 asian low
Failure to hold 3875.12 exposes the 3852.50 yearly low
Close above ema50 and the 3905.75 session high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 3923.11 asian high
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC is the next scheduled risk after PPI
11:46 UTC
Drifting lower, below both EMAs · RSI 39 · price 3,890.61
Lower highs inside 3886–3906 London range, pressing session low.
London has faded the Asian rally to the 3923 asian high, building a 3886–3906 range with lower highs. Price is now pressing the 3886 session low, between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of the Asian rally, below the ema20 and ema50 with RSI(14) at 38.7. ATR has compressed to ~630 pips ($6.30) ahead of PPI as the USD holds near 19-month highs.
Support: 3,886.46, 3,875.12
Resistance: 3,895.67, 3,905.75, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~1h45m) could materially shift this read, with core MoM f/c 0.3%
M15 close below the 3886 session low opens the 3875 asian low, then the 3852 yearly low
Recovery above the 3895.67 ema20 and the 3905.75 london high breaks the lower-high sequence
Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC are follow-on risk after the PPI reaction
11:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia high · RSI 38 · price 3,887.92
Lower highs pressing a flat 3888 floor.
Gold is pressing the 3887.5 session low, which is the floor of the London range and the 50% level of the bounce fib from the 3852.5 yearly low. Lower highs from the 3923 asia high have capped every recovery. Price sits below a declining ema20 (3896.46) and ema50 (3898.99), with RSI(14) at 38.4 and ATR(14) compressing to ~647 pips ahead of PPI, after Thursday's hawkish Fed-driven NY slide.
Support: 3,887.50, 3,875.12, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,896.46, 3,905.27, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3887.5 session low breaks the London range floor and exposes the 3875 asia low
Recovery above ema20 and the 3905 london high would break the lower-highs line
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read; a hot core print puts the 3852.5 yearly low back in play
A soft PPI that lifts price back through 3905 reopens the 3923 asia high
11:16 UTC
Heavy below ema20, lower highs since Asia · RSI 42 · price 3,892.84
London range 3889–3906, price at range floor.
After Thursday's NY sell-off to the 3852 yearly low on hawkish Fed repricing, the Asian rally to 3923 has faded. London has been rejected twice near 3905 (the london high), and price is back at the 3889 london low. That sits close to the 61.8% of the asia rally fib, below ema20 (3897.3) with RSI 42 and ATR compressing to 652 pips ahead of PPI.
Support: 3,889.40, 3,875.10
Resistance: 3,897.30, 3,905.50, 3,923.10
What it said to watch
M15 close below 3889 london low breaks the London range and exposes the 3875 asian low
Reclaim of the ema20 and 3905.5 london high (descending highs line) reopens the 3923 asian high
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h) and Bowman at 15:50 UTC could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Down-leg off Asian high, momentum soft · RSI 42 · price 3,890.70
Lower highs from 3923, London range 3888–3906 with price at its floor.
Gold is back at the 3888.44 session low after a rejection near the 3905.75 session high. It is printing lower highs off the 3923.11 Asian high, below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 41.6 and ATR(14) easing to 681 pips. The floor sits near the 50% retrace of the rebound from Thursday's 3852.5 yearly low, with price capped below $3,900 as the USD holds firm into PPI.
Support: 3,888.44, 3,875.12, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,897.92, 3,905.75, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3888.44 session low breaks the London range and exposes the 3875.12 asian low
Reclaiming the ema20 at 3897.92 and clearing the 3905.75 session high would break the lower-highs line
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read; the 3852.5 yearly low is the downside reference on a hot core print
10:46 UTC
Pullback from Asian high, lower highs below the EMAs · RSI 44 · price 3,892.55
Lower highs from 3923, tight European range 3889–3906 with supply capping at 3900.
Gold is sliding back toward the 3888 swing low after the Asian session bounce from yesterday's 3852 yearly low topped at the 3923 Asian high. Since then a descending trendline of lower highs has capped price, with repeated rejection around the 3900 / ema50 area and the European session range held at 3890–3906. Price sits below both EMAs, RSI(14) is 43.5 and ATR is about $7. The USD bid ahead of PPI keeps gold heavy under 3900.
Support: 3,888.44, 3,875.12
Resistance: 3,900.08, 3,905.75, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3888 swing low breaks the range floor, exposing the 3875 asian low and the 61.8% fib of the 3852–3923 bounce
M15 close above the 3905.75 session high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 3923 asian high next
Sustained trade back above the ema50 near 3900 removes the cap seen through the European session
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 3852 yearly low back in view
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) add event risk after PPI
10:31 UTC
Sideways below 3900, lower highs since Asia · RSI 49 · price 3,898.19
Tight range 3888–3906 under a descending highs line.
Gold has held a 3888–3906 range through the London session, just under the 3900 handle as the USD pauses near its 19-month high. Highs have stepped lower from the 3923 Asian high. The 3905.75 range high lines up with the 50% retrace of the Asia drop. Price sits marginally below both flat EMAs, RSI(14) is neutral at 49 and ATR has contracted to ~692 pips ahead of US PPI.
Support: 3,888.44, 3,875.12
Resistance: 3,900.36, 3,905.75, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read; the digest ties a hot print to a retest of the 3852 yearly low
An M15 close above the 3905.75 range high and the lower-highs line breaks the compression, with the 3923 asian high next
Failure to hold the 3888.44 range low opens the 3875 asian low
Sustained closes back above the ema50 at 3900.36 would put price back over both EMAs
10:16 UTC
Flat after rebound, lower highs since Asia · RSI 52 · price 3,899.94
Tight London range inside lower half of Asian range.
After Thursday's Fed-hike sell-off to the 3852.50 yearly low, gold bounced to the 3923.11 Asian high. Since then it has printed lower highs, and London has held a tight 3890–3906 band in the lower half of the Asian range, sitting on the 3900 psych with flat EMAs and RSI(14) at 52. The Asian low at 3888.44 sits close to the 50% fib of the rebound. ATR(14) is 712 pips heading into US PPI.
Support: 3,888.44, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,905.75, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3905.75 london high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 3923.11 asian high back in play
Loss of the 3888.44 asian low breaks the 50% fib and opens the path back toward the 3852.50 yearly low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read; Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC follow
10:03 UTC
Rebound off yearly low, now sideways · RSI 53 · price 3,904.15
London range 3888–3906 inside the Asian range, rising lows.
Thursday's NY selloff to the 3852.5 yearly low gave way to an Asia-session rebound that capped at the 3923 Asian high. London has stayed inside that range, compressing between 3888 and the 3906 range top on rising lows. Price is now pressing the range top and holding just above the ema50 at 3900, with RSI(14) neutral at 52.5 and ATR(14) near $7.30, while the London low sits on the 50% fib of the rebound as USD holds firm ahead of PPI.
Support: 3,900.39, 3,888.44, 3,875.12
Resistance: 3,905.75, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3905.75 range top opens a test of the 3923 Asian high
Slip back below the ema50 at 3900.39 returns price to the middle of the London range
Break of the 3888 London low and the rising lows breaches the 50% fib and exposes the 3875 Asian low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read; Bowman 15:50 UTC follows
Mid-London, gold is boxed between the 3888 session low and the 3906 london high, in the lower half of the 3875–3923 Asian range. It is printing lower highs with repeated rejection under the ema50 (3900.35), while RSI(14) sits flat near 47 and ATR is about $7.3. The bounce off Thursday's 3852.5 yearly low, set after the hot CPI and a firm USD, stalled at the asian high and has since retraced to the 38.2–50% bounce fib zone.
Support: 3,888.44, 3,875.12, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,900.35, 3,905.75, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3888 session low exposes the 3875 asian low, then the 3852.5 yearly low
Close above the 3906 london high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 3923 asian high
Holding below the falling ema50 near 3900 keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~3.7h), then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
London compressing 3888–3906 with lower highs inside Asian range.
Asia's rebound off Thursday's 3852.50 yearly low stalled at the 3923.11 Asian high. An early-morning drop then pulled price back to the 38.2% fib of that move near 3896. London has since held a 3888.44–3905.75 range below a now-crossed EMA20/EMA50 (ema50 3900.49), with a lower-highs trendline pressing on the London low ahead of US PPI.
Support: 3,888.44, 3,875.12, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,900.49, 3,905.75, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3888.44 London low breaks the range and exposes the 3875.12 Asian low
Close back above ema50 at 3900.49 and the 3905.75 London high clears the lower-highs trendline
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read; a hot core print puts the 3852.50 yearly low back in focus
ATR(14) near $7.30 per bar sets the typical move size; it has been compressing since the early-morning spike
09:16 UTC
Sideways under declining EMAs after Thursday's slide · RSI 48 · price 3,898.14
Lower highs from 3923 Asian high, flat floor near 3888-3890.
The Asian rally to the 3923.11 asian high has faded into the 61.8–78.6% zone of the Asia rally fib. Early London is compressing between the 3888.44 session low and a series of lower highs at 3905.75 and 3901.15, with rejection around the 3900 ema50 each time. Price sits just below both EMAs, which are rolling over, and RSI(14) is neutral at 47.6. The tone stays heavy on a firm USD after Thursday's NY sell-off to the 3852.50 yearly low.
Support: 3,888.44, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,900.72, 3,905.75, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3888.44 session low breaks the London floor and exposes the 3852.50 yearly low
Close above the 3905.75 lower high and the lower-highs line ends the descending sequence; 3923.11 asian high is next overhead
Holding the 3900.72 ema50 as a cap keeps the compression intact into PPI
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read; ATR(14) ~743 pips before the release
Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) remarks could extend any PPI move
09:02 UTC
Downtrend paused, lower highs into London · RSI 47 · price 3,898.57
Lower highs from the 3923 Asia high, lows holding 3888–3890.
Asia's recovery from Thursday's 3852.5 yearly low was rejected at the 3923 asia high. Early London has printed lower highs, with price below the ema20 and the 3900.85 ema50 and RSI(14) neutral at 46.5. Demand has stepped in twice at the 3888–3890 swing low, near the 50% of the recovery fib, as gold coils ahead of US PPI.
Support: 3,888.44, 3,875.12, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,900.85, 3,905.75, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3888 swing low (50% recovery fib) opens the 3875 asia low
Reclaim of the ema50 and the 3905.75 london high breaks the lower highs sequence
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 3852.5 yearly low back in focus
Asian rally fading, compressing below 3900 into early London.
The Asian bounce from the 3872 asian low peaked at the 3923 asian high and has since retraced past 50%. Early London is pressing the 61.8% fib near 3891, with the 3888 swing low just under and a descending trendline of lower highs capping. Price sits below the ema20 (3899.86) and ema50 (3901.03), with rejection under 3900 since the 3905.75 swing high, as hot-CPI and dollar strength keep gold heavy.
Support: 3,888.44, 3,872.19
Resistance: 3,899.86, 3,905.75, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20/3900 and the 3905.75 swing high breaks the descending trendline read
Failure to hold the 3888 swing low exposes the 3872 asian low, then the 3852 yearly low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~4.7h) could materially shift this read; ATR(14) runs about 765 pips ($7.65) per bar
08:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 43 · price 3,893.50
Lower highs from the 3923 Asian high, London low 3888 holding.
Early London has faded the Asian push to the 3923.11 Asian high. Price is printing lower highs, was rejected at the 3905.75 London high just above the ema20/ema50 cluster near 3901, and now sits on the 61.8% retracement of the Asian rally with RSI at 42.6. The 3888.44 London low is holding for now, after Thursday's hawkish-Fed, firm-USD NY slide printed a 3852.50 yearly low.
Support: 3,888.44, 3,875.12, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,900.59, 3,905.75, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3888.44 london low exposes the 3875.12 asian low
Close back above the ema20 near 3900.6 and the lower highs line would neutralise the London fade
Reclaim of the 3905.75 london high reopens the path to the 3923.11 asian high
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~5h): a hot core print puts the 3852.50 yearly low back in play, while a soft print risks a sharp squeeze through the EMAs
Lower highs off 3923 Asian high, compressing above the 3888 swing low.
Rejection at the 3923.11 Asian high led to a late-Asia slide. Early London is coiling between the 3888.44 swing low, which sits at the 50% fib of the rebound from Thursday's 3852.5 yearly low, and a trendline of lower highs near 3905, with price below ema20/ema50 at 3901.4–3901.7. RSI(14) is neutral at 47.8 and ATR is about 769 pips, with the firm USD capping the recovery into PPI.
Support: 3,888.44, 3,875.12, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,901.38, 3,905.75, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3888.44 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib near 3879.5 and the 3875 asian low
Close back above the ema20 and the 3905.75 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 3923 asian high
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 3852.5 yearly low back in play
The Asia rebound off Thursday's 3852 ytd low, helped by a pause in the USD, stalled at the 3923 asian high. The early-European pullback held the 3888 swing low near the 50% fib of that bounce. Into London open, price is coiling just under a flat ema20/ema50 near 3901, with RSI(14) at 45.9 and ATR(14) at 769 pips (~$7.7).
Support: 3,888.44, 3,875.12
Resistance: 3,905.75, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3905.75 swing high and the lower-highs line reopens the 3923 asian high
Loss of the 3888 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib near 3879 and the 3875 asian low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~5.5h) could materially shift this read; a hot core print puts the 3852 ytd low back in focus
Lower highs off the Asian high, holding above the swing low.
Gold's Asian bounce off the 3852.50 yearly low ran out at the 3923.11 Asian high as the USD paused. That move has since slipped into lower highs at 3919.77 and 3905.75, with the swing low at 3888.44 sitting near the 50% fib of the bounce. Price is just under the flat ema20/ema50 cluster near 3902 ahead of London open, RSI(14) 47 after cooling from 74, with ATR around $7.7 per bar.
Support: 3,888.44, 3,875.12, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,902.08, 3,905.75, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3905.75 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 3923.11 Asian high
Failure to hold the 3888.44 swing low confirms a lower low toward the 3875.12 Asian low
Loss of the 3875 Asian low puts the 3852.50 yearly low back in focus
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (15:30 broker) could materially shift this read; Bowman at 15:50 UTC follows
07:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs off the Asian high · RSI 43 · price 3,894.28
Lower highs and lower lows since the 3923 Asian high; price back below 3900 and both EMAs.
The Asia-session bounce off Thursday's 3852.50 ytd low ran out at the 3923.11 Asian high. The early-European selloff has since printed a 3905.75 lower high, pulling price back below $3,900 and the ema20/ema50 cluster near 3902, at the 61.8% fib of the Asian leg. RSI(14) sits at 43 with ATR(14) at ~791 pips ($7.9) ahead of London, and the 3888.44 swing low is the nearest floor.
Support: 3,888.44, 3,875.12, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,902.45, 3,905.75, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
A close below the 3888.44 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 3875.12 asian low
A reclaim of the ema20 at 3902.45 and the 3905.75 lower high would break the lower-high chain and reopen the 3923.11 asian high
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read; the 3852.50 ytd low is the line the digest flags on a hot print
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) follow PPI and add event risk
Lower highs below 3923.11 Asian high, holding 3888.44 session low.
Gold's Asia-session bounce off yesterday's 3852.50 yearly low, helped by a paused USD, met rejection at the 3923.11 Asian high. A late-Asia sell-off has price below the flattening ema20/ema50 cluster near 3903, with a lower high at 3905.58 into London open. The 3888.44 session low sits near the 50% fib of the bounce. RSI 45 is neutral and ATR runs about $8.2 per bar.
Support: 3,888.44, 3,875.12, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,903.27, 3,905.58, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3905.58 lower high and ema20 negates the lower-highs read
Failure to hold the 3888.44 session low (50% fib) exposes the 3875.12 Asian low
Loss of the Asian low brings the 3852.50 yearly low back into view
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Intraday recovery stalling, flat at the EMAs · RSI 48 · price 3,902.93
Mid-Asian range, higher low at 3888 under a 3923 lower-high cap.
Asia lifted gold from the 3875 asian low to a 3923 asian high as the USD paused after Thursday's slide to the 3852 yearly low. A rejection at the 3918.75 lower high pulled price to a 3888 swing low that held above rising support. Price is now pinned just under the ema20 (3903.92) and ema50 (3902.65) ahead of London, with RSI(14) at 47.8 and ATR near $8.2.
Support: 3,888.44, 3,875.12
Resistance: 3,903.92, 3,918.75, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
A close back above the ema20 at 3903.92 and the 3918.75 lower high reopens the 3923 asian high
A break of the 3888 swing low and rising support exposes the 3875 asian low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; the 3852 yearly low is the line for trend extension on a hot print
06:46 UTC
Asian bounce rolling over, short-term lower high · RSI 38 · price 3,891.18
Lower high at 3919.77 under the 3923.11 Asian high; neckline 3907.7 broken, price back near the base of the 01:15 UTC breakout.
The Asia rebound off Thursday's 3852 yearly low stalled at the 3923.11 Asian high. A lower high at 3919.77 printed on a weaker RSI swing (74.3 to 65.8), and the 05:30 UTC sell-off gave back the 01:15 UTC breakout leg. Ahead of London open, price is at the 3890 session low and below the ema20 (3904.28) and ema50 (3902.74), with RSI 37.6, through the 61.8% fib near 3893, and ATR at 786.5 pips (~$7.90).
Support: 3,890.24, 3,884.08, 3,875.12
Resistance: 3,902.74, 3,919.77, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3884.08 swing low (78.6% fib zone) exposes the 3875.12 Asian low
Holding the 3890 session low and reclaiming the ema50 near 3903 / $3,900 would neutralise the lower-high read
Only a break above the 3919.77 lower high and the 3923.11 Asian high would revive the Asian bounce structure
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~6.7h) could materially shift this read; a hot core print puts the 3852 yearly low back in focus
06:31 UTC
Asian rebound fading, short-term lower high in place · RSI 42 · price 3,895.36
Lower high at 3919.77 under the 3923.11 Asian high, then a break back below 3905 into the 61.8% fib.
Gold climbed in the Asia session from the 3875.12 asian low to a 3923.11 asian high as the USD paused. A lower high at 3919.77 then met a sharp 05:30 UTC rejection that took price back below the ema20 (3905.71) and ema50 (3903.23). Price is now sitting on the 61.8% fib of the Asian leg near 3893, just above the 3892.48 swing low, with RSI(14) at 42.1 (off a 74.3 peak) and ATR around $7.9 ahead of London open.
Support: 3,892.48, 3,875.12
Resistance: 3,903.23, 3,905.71, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3892.48 swing low breaks the 61.8% fib and exposes the 3875.12 asian low
Reclaim of the ema50 at 3903.23 and the ema20 at 3905.71 would neutralise the 05:30 UTC breakdown
Lower high at 3919.77 stays intact while price holds under the 3923.11 asian high
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print puts the asian low and the 3852 yearly low back in focus
06:16 UTC
Asian recovery rolling over, short-term lower high and lower low · RSI 43 · price 3,899.31
Double top at 3923 broke its 3907.68 neckline, price back below both EMAs mid-Asian range.
Asia's bounce from Thursday's 3852.50 NY low stalled in a double top at the 3923 Asian high. The break of the 3907.68 prior low put price back under the ema20 (3906.67) and ema50 (3903.50), and the dip tagged a 3892.48 swing low near the 61.8% fib. Price is holding around 3900 late in the Asia session, with RSI(14) at 43 after peaking at 74 and ATR(14) near 795 pips going into the London open.
Support: 3,892.48, 3,887.33, 3,875.12
Resistance: 3,903.50, 3,907.68, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
A close back above the ema50 at 3903.50 and the 3907.68 prior low would neutralise the double top and reopen the 3923.11 Asian high
Failure to hold the 3892.48 swing low exposes the 3887 base from the Asian breakout bar, then the 3875.12 Asian low
A break of the lower-highs trendline from 3923.11 would undercut the rejection read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.3%, core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
Lower high at 3919.77 under the 3923.11 Asian high; pullback holding the 61.8% fib of the Asian leg.
Gold ran from the 3875.12 Asian low to a 3923.11 Asian high as the USD paused, extending the rebound off Thursday's 3852.50 yearly low. A rejection at 3919.77 printed a lower high, and the late-Asia drop tagged the 61.8% fib and a 3892.48 swing low. Price is back near 3900 below the ema20 with RSI(14) cooled to 48.8 from 74, and London opens in about an hour.
Support: 3,892.48, 3,875.12, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,907.61, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3892.48 swing low breaks the Asian up-leg and exposes the 3875.12 asian low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 3907.61, then the 3923.11 asian high, would restore the Asian higher-high sequence
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 3852.50 yearly low back in focus
London open in about 1h is likely to set the session range around the 3900 retest; ATR(14) is about $7.9 per bar
05:46 UTC
Asian rebound stalling, short-term lower high in place · RSI 52 · price 3,902.72
Lower high at 3919.77 under the 3923.11 Asian high, then a break of the 3907.68 swing low.
Gold's Asia session rebound off the 3875.12 Asian low reclaimed 3900 as the USD paused, but it was rejected at a 3919.77 lower high under the 3923.11 Asian high. The latest drop broke the 3907.68 swing low and left price under the ema20 (3907.98). It is now probing the ema50 (3903.72), the 3900 round number and the fib 50% of the Asian leg near 3899. RSI(14) has cooled from 74 to 51.6, and ATR(14) at 732.8 pips points to roughly $7 bars ahead of London open.
Support: 3,900.00, 3,887.33, 3,875.12
Resistance: 3,907.98, 3,919.77, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3900 round number and fib 50% exposes the 3887.33 impulse base, then the 3875.12 Asian low
Recovery above the ema20 and the 3919.77 lower high reopens the 3923.11 Asian high
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read, with Fed's Bowman and Daly later
Higher lows in Asia, capped under 3923 session high.
Late Asia session: gold broke above Thursday's 3887.60 prior high as the USD paused, extending the rebound from the 3852.50 NY low to a 3923.11 Asia high. The pullback held a higher swing low at 3907.68, near the 38.2% of the Asia leg and the ema20 at 3908.11, with RSI(14) cooling to 65.8 from 74.3 and price above both EMAs.
Support: 3,907.68, 3,903.60, 3,887.60
Resistance: 3,923.11, 3,950.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3923.11 Asia high opens the path to the 3950 round number
Failure to hold the 3907.68 swing low and the ema50 at 3903.60 breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Loss of the 3887.60 prior high would unwind the Asia breakout
London open in ~2h could reset the Asian range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
Asia breakout from post-NY consolidation; higher high at 3923, shallow pullback held 3907.7.
Asia broke the 3872–3893 post-NY consolidation with a 01:15 UTC impulse, extending the bounce off Thursday's 3852.5 yearly low to a 3923.1 session high as the USD paused. The pullback held the 3907.7 swing low near the 23.6% fib, with price above ema20 and ema50. RSI(14) has cooled to 62.7 from 74 into late Asia, and London open is approaching.
Support: 3,907.70, 3,903.00, 3,893.00
Resistance: 3,923.10, 3,950.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3923.1 session high extends the Asia rebound, with the 3950 round number as the next hurdle
Failure to hold the 3907.7 swing low and ema50 at 3903 puts the 3893 breakout base and 38.2% fib back in play
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print re-exposes the 3852.5 yearly low
Gold broke out of the late-NY 3865–3889 range at 01:15 UTC in the Asia session as the USD paused, reclaiming 3900 off Thursday's 3852.50 low and printing an Asian high at 3923.11. The ema20 has crossed above the ema50, and the 04:15 UTC dip held a higher swing low at 3907.68. RSI(14) has cooled to 61 from 74 and ATR(14) is compressing to 689 pips ahead of London open and US PPI.
Support: 3,907.68, 3,900.00, 3,889.58
Resistance: 3,923.11, 3,950.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3907.68 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the Asian higher-low sequence and exposes 3900 psych
Close above the 3923.11 asian high opens the path to the 3950 round number
Loss of the 3889.58 range top unwinds the Asia breakout and keeps the rebound fib under pressure
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman at 15:50 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asia session higher highs and higher lows; pullback from the Asian high toward the ema20.
Gold has rebounded from Thursday's NY-session yearly low at 3852.50, the sell-off driven by hot inflation data and a firm USD. In the Asia session price broke out of the spike base near 3888 to an Asian high of 3923.11. It is now in a pullback to 3907.68, just above the ema20 (3905.58), with RSI(14) cooling from 74 to 59 and ATR(14) at 709 pips ($7.09).
Support: 3,907.68, 3,904.76, 3,887.33
Resistance: 3,923.11, 3,950.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3904.76 swing low and the ema20 breaks the Asia higher-low chain
A close back above the 3923.11 asian high extends the rebound toward the 3950 round number
Loss of the 3887 spike base, near the 50% fib of the rebound, would put the yearly low back in focus
The 3907.68 pullback low is the first test of the retest read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia low, pulling back · RSI 58 · price 3,911.06
Higher lows since 3875; NY range top broken, now testing the ema20 and 38.2% fib.
After Thursday's hawkish-Fed, firm-DXY slide to the 3852.5 yearly low, a 01:15 UTC spike in the Asia session broke the NY range top at 3887.6. Price ran to a 3923.11 asian high, and RSI(14) has since cooled from 74 to 58. Price is now pulling back toward the ema20 at 3905.04, the 38.2% fib and the asian uptrend line. The ema50 sits at 3901.76 and ATR(14) is 739.6 pips ($7.40).
Support: 3,905.04, 3,901.76, 3,887.60
Resistance: 3,923.11, 3,936.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema50 at 3901.76 and the 3900 handle breaks the asian uptrend line and the higher-low chain.
Loss of 3901.76 exposes the NY range top at 3887.6 as the next area to test.
M15 close above the 3923.11 asian high resumes the HH sequence toward the prior shelf near 3936.77, the pre-drop congestion.
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read.
Asia break above the overnight range, pullback toward first higher low.
Late Asia session: gold broke the overnight 3872–3893 range at 01:15 UTC and bounced to an asia high of 3923.11. That retraced about half of yesterday's NY slide to the 3852.5 yearly low, driven by hawkish Fedspeak and a firm USD. The latest bar slipped to 3914 with RSI(14) cooling from 74 to 64.5. The swing low at 3904.8 sits on ema20 (3904.6) just above ema50 (3901.5), and ema20 has crossed above ema50.
Support: 3,904.76, 3,901.45, 3,893.02
Resistance: 3,923.11, 3,955.50
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3904.8 swing low and ema50 at 3901.5 puts the 3893 range top back in play, near the 38.2% of the bounce fib
Break of the rising trendline from the 3875 Asia low undercuts the higher-low sequence
M15 close above the 3923.11 asia high opens the path toward the 3955.5 prior high from yesterday's London session
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; ATR ~744 pips (~$7.4) per bar
Higher-high/higher-low chain above the Asian range.
Asia session broke the early Asian high at 3893.02 with a 01:15 UTC thrust to 3916, extending the rebound from yesterday's 3852.50 yearly low set during NY hours on the hawkish-Fed slide. Higher lows at the 3904.76 swing low and 3913.71 hold under the 3923.11 session high. RSI(14) sits overbought at 74.3 as EMA20 crosses above EMA50.
Support: 3,913.71, 3,904.76, 3,893.02
Resistance: 3,923.11, 3,950.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3913.71 higher low breaks the intraday chain and exposes the 3904.76 swing low
M15 close above the 3923.11 session high opens the 3950 round number, flagged as resistance in the macro read
Return below the 3893.02 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and undercuts the breakout
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 3852.50 low; Asia broke above its early base.
Gold is rebounding off Thursday's 3852.50 yearly low, set after hawkish Fedspeak and a firm USD drove the NY-session slide. The Asia session broke out of its 3875–3893 base and pushed to a 3923.11 asia high, holding a flag low at 3904.76 along the way. Price sits above both EMAs, ema20 has just crossed above ema50, and RSI(14) is hot at 73.5.
Support: 3,904.76, 3,901.75, 3,875.12
Resistance: 3,923.11, 3,936.77, 3,950.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3904.76 flag low and ema20 near 3901.75 breaks the rising lows trendline
Clearance of the 3923.11 asia high opens the 3936.77 breakdown pivot, with the 3950 round number above
Loss of the 3875.12 asia low would erase the Asia breakout
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, plus Bowman and Daly afterward, could materially shift this read
Higher lows through Asia after a breakout above the NY consolidation.
Asia has lifted gold off the 3875 base, with a 01:15 UTC impulse clearing the 3887.60 prior high. The 3904.76 shelf low then held for a push to a 3921.12 session high, with rising lows intact, RSI(14) at 72 overbought and EMA20 just crossing above EMA50. The move retraces part of Thursday's NY-session slide to the 3852 yearly low on hot-CPI and hawkish-Fed pressure, and the 3932 breakdown level sits overhead.
Support: 3,904.76, 3,899.92, 3,887.60
Resistance: 3,921.12, 3,932.16, 3,950.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3921.12 session high opens the 3932.16 breakdown level, then 3950 psych
Close back below the 3904.76 shelf low and ema20 at 3899.92 undoes the breakout and exposes the 3887.60 prior high near the 50% rebound fib
A break of the rising lows from 3875 ends the Asia higher-low chain
London open is the first test of whether the Asian range extends or reverses
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read, followed by Bowman and Daly remarks
Asian range breakout from 3865–3893 base, higher lows since 3852.50.
A $22 Asia-session bar broke the 3865–3893 post-NY range, extending the rebound from yesterday's 3852.50 yearly low to a 3921.12 session high after a brief 3905–3916 consolidation. RSI(14) at 73.7 is overbought, price sits above both EMAs with the EMA20 at 3898 curling up into the flat EMA50, and ATR(14) runs near 784 pips.
Support: 3,904.76, 3,898.15, 3,890.00
Resistance: 3,921.12, 3,950.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 3904.76 consol low puts the ema20 near 3898 and the old 3890 range top in play
Acceptance above the 3921 session high opens the 3950 round number, inside the fib of the rebound
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Asian range breakout, higher highs and higher lows.
Gold broke the 3875–3893 Asian range at 01:15 UTC and is printing a new session high near 3920. That puts it back above both EMAs and through the 61.8% selloff fib of Thursday's NY drop from 3948.57 to the 3852.50 yearly low, a bounce that cuts against the firm-USD backdrop. RSI(14) at 72.5 is overbought; the 3904.76 swing low and the asia uptrend line underpin the move, with the 3936 breakdown shelf next overhead.
Support: 3,904.76, 3,897.85, 3,893.02
Resistance: 3,920.24, 3,936.17, 3,950.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3904.76 swing low and the asia uptrend line would turn the breakout into a failed Asian range break
An M15 close back below the ema50 at 3897.85 and the 3893 asian high puts price back inside the overnight range
A close above the 3936 breakdown shelf (78.6% selloff fib near 3928 first) opens the 3950 round number
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman 15:50 and Daly 17:00 UTC, could materially shift this read; ATR(14) ~803 pips sets typical bar range
02:46 UTC
Rebounding off yearly low, Asia breakout stalling · RSI 68 · price 3,908.43
Post-breakout consolidation 3904.76–3916.75 above both EMAs.
Gold bounced off Thursday's 3852.50 yearly low on rising lows. The Asia session then broke its 3875–3893 range with a spike to 3916.75 at 01:15 UTC. Price has since held a 3904.76–3916.75 band, with the asia high rejected twice; RSI(14) has cooled from 72.2 to 68.1 and ATR is 792.9 pips.
Support: 3,904.76, 3,897.12, 3,887.60
Resistance: 3,916.75, 3,922.48
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3904.76 range low puts the ema50 at 3897.12 and the 3887.60 ny high in play
Close above the 3916.75 asia high reopens the 3922.48 breakdown area from Thursday's NY selloff
Loss of the rising lows line from 3852.50 negates the rebound structure
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Gold slid from 3948 to a 3852.50 yearly low during NY hours on USD strength and hawkish Fedspeak. It then rose along the Asia rising lows before a 01:15 UTC spike to the 3916.75 Asia high. Price is now in a tight flag between the 3904.76 flag low and that high, above both EMAs, with RSI(14) cooled to 66.4 from 72 and ATR elevated at 777.9 pips; the bounce fib 38.2% sits near the 3893 spike base.
Support: 3,904.76, 3,896.65, 3,893.02
Resistance: 3,916.75, 3,932.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3916.75 asia high extends the breakout toward the 3932 pre-drop low
Close below the 3904.76 flag low exposes the ema50 at 3896.65 and the 3893 spike base
Break of the asia rising lows trendline would undo the Asian recovery structure
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Rebound off yearly low, pausing below Asia high · RSI 69 · price 3,907.00
Asia broke the late-NY 3872–3893 range; tight 3905–3916 hold above both EMAs.
After the NY slide on hawkish Fedspeak and a firm USD to the 3852.5 yearly low, Asia broke above the 3872–3893 late-NY range with a spike to the 3916.6 Asia high. That extends the rebound, and price now holds 3905–3916 above the ema20 (3891) and ema50 (3896), with RSI(14) easing from 72.2 to 68.7. ATR(14) expanded to 802 pips on the spike, and ema20 still sits below ema50.
Support: 3,896.27, 3,893.00, 3,872.19
Resistance: 3,916.63, 3,948.57
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 3893 range top negates the Asia breakout and exposes the 3872 ny low
Close above the 3916.6 asia high opens the path toward the 3948.6 pre-drop high
Failure to hold the ema50 at 3896 would mark a deeper retracement of the rebound
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
01:47 UTC
Rebounding off yearly low, short-term up · RSI 70 · price 3,907.18
Asian range break higher, higher lows since 3852.50.
After Thursday's NY selloff around jobless claims to the 3852.50 yearly low, gold built higher lows and broke the 3875–3893 Asian range at 01:15 UTC. The move ran to a 3916.63 session high, with RSI(14) at 72.2 on the spike bar and 70.3 on the latest closed bar. Price sits above the ema20 (3887.31) and ema50 (3895.30), and ATR(14) has expanded to 832.8 pips (~$8.3).
Support: 3,895.30, 3,893.02, 3,875.12
Resistance: 3,916.63, 3,932.16, 3,950.00
What it said to watch
Holding the ema50 at 3895.30 and the range top at 3893.02, near the 38.2% of the bounce fib, keeps the break intact. A drop back inside the range reads as a false break.
An M15 close above the 3916.63 session high opens the 3932.16 breakdown level, the base of Thursday's pre-claims consolidation, then 3950 psych.
Loss of the 3875.12 asian low and the rising lows trendline puts 3852.50 back in focus.
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, with core YoY forecast at 5%, followed by Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC, could materially shift this read.
Asian range break above 3893, testing 61.8% of NY sell-off.
Early Asia broke the 3875–3893 overnight range with a 01:15 UTC spike to a 3916.63 session high. The move reclaimed the ema20 and a still-falling ema50, lifted RSI(14) to 72.2 and expanded ATR(14) to 828 pips. Price is now at the 61.8% fib of Thursday's NY sell-off from the 3948.57 drop origin to the 3852.50 yearly low, which came on hot CPI and hawkish Fedspeak.
Support: 3,894.74, 3,893.02, 3,885.04
Resistance: 3,916.63, 3,948.57
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 3893.02 range top and ema50 at 3894.74 turns the break into a false break
Acceptance above the 3916.63 session high and 61.8% fib opens the 3948.57 drop origin
Loss of the ema20 at 3885.04 puts the 3852.50 yearly low back in focus
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%), then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 3852.50; Asia testing ema50 and 38.2% fib.
After Thursday's hot-CPI, hawkish-Fed slide to the 3852.50 yearly low, gold has built higher lows, and the Asia session pushed to a 3895.34 session high despite Williams' hawkish remarks. Price is pressing the ema50 at 3894.09, which also sits by the 38.2% fib of the 3955–3852 slide, with the ema20 at 3882.34 underneath and RSI(14) at 55.8. ATR(14) is 665.6 pips (~$6.66 a bar).
Support: 3,887.60, 3,882.34, 3,872.19
Resistance: 3,895.34, 3,894.09, 3,909.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3895.34 session high and ema50 opens the 50% fib near 3904 and the 3909.22 bounce high
Slip back under the 3887.60 prior high and the ema20 at 3882.34 puts the 3872.19 swing low back in play
Break of 3872.19 snaps the higher lows line off the yearly low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Gold is grinding off Thursday's 3852.50 yearly low, set in the NY-session slide on hawkish Fedspeak and a firm USD. Asia has built higher lows on rising support above the ema20. Price is now pressing the asia high at 3891.53, which matches the 38.2% fib of the 3948.57–3852.50 drop, with the ema50 at 3894.34 just overhead; RSI is neutral at 53.1 and ATR has compressed to 651 pips.
Support: 3,881.74, 3,875.12, 3,872.19
Resistance: 3,891.53, 3,894.34, 3,900.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 3894.34 and the 3900 round number opens the 50% fib near 3900.5
Loss of the ema20 at 3881.74 and the asia low at 3875.12 breaks the rising support and the higher-low chain
Break of the 3872.19 swing low puts the 3852.50 yearly low back in focus
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print revives pressure on the yearly low
3872–3890 range above the yearly low; early Asia testing the range top.
Thursday's NY-hours liquidation bottomed at the 3852.50 yearly low as hawkish Fedspeak and a firm USD weighed. Price has since built a 3872–3890 consolidation with higher lows. Early Asia is pressing the 3889.58 asian high at the 38.2% fib of the drop, with price above ema20 but below ema50 at 3894.70; RSI(14) is 55.1 and ATR(14) is 644 pips.
Support: 3,881.33, 3,875.12, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,889.58, 3,894.70, 3,900.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3894.70 ema50 and the 3900 round number (50% fib) breaks the consolidation top
Loss of ema20 at 3881.33 and the 3875.12 asian low returns price to the range floor near 3872
US PPI at 13:30 UTC: a hot core print puts the 3852.50 yearly low back in play
Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) remarks after PPI could materially shift this read
Gold has held a 3872–3890 box in early Asia since bouncing off the 3852.5 yearly low, which printed after yesterday's NY-session slide on hawkish Fed repricing and a firm USD. The Asian high at 3889.58 capped the latest push. Price sits above the ema20 at 3880.72 but below the ema50 at 3895, with RSI(14) neutral at 50.5 and ATR(14) compressed to 638.5 pips from 961.
Support: 3,880.72, 3,872.19, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,889.58, 3,895.00, 3,909.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3889.58 Asian high and the 3895 ema50 breaks the range toward the 3909.22 bounce high, near the 61.8% of the NY selloff fib
Loss of the 3880.72 ema20 puts the 3872.19 range low back in play; a break there exposes the 3852.5 yearly low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Post-selloff range 3865–3890 with rising lows; Asia testing range top.
After Thursday's NY-session slide to the 3852.50 yearly low on hawkish Fed repricing and a firm USD, gold has built a 3865–3890 range of rising lows. Early Asia has lifted price above the ema20 at 3880.46 to a 3889.58 session high, with RSI(14) at 55. The ema50 at 3895.49 and the 38.2% level of the selloff fib near 3891.6 sit just above.
Support: 3,880.46, 3,872.19, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,889.58, 3,895.49, 3,909.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3895.49 ema50 breaks the range top and opens the 3909.22 lower high
Loss of the 3872.19 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 3852.50 yearly low
Rejection at the 3889.58 session high keeps the Asia move inside the post-low range
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight range · RSI 47 · price 3,881.91
Post-selloff range 3872–3888 under lower highs from 3909.
Gold has been boxed in a 3872–3888 consolidation since NY afternoon, after hot-CPI and hawkish-Fed liquidation printed a 3852.50 yearly low. Early Asia trades just above the ema20 at 3879.82 and below the ema50 at 3895.85, with ATR(14) compressed to 604.6 pips (~$6) and the range high capped under the 38.2% fib of the NY selloff.
Support: 3,879.82, 3,872.19, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,887.60, 3,895.85, 3,909.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3887.60 range high brings the 38.2% fib near 3892 and the ema50 at 3895.85 into play
A break above the 3909.22 swing high would end the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 3872.19 range low through Asia exposes the 3852.50 yearly low
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read