Gold has recovered off the YTD lows near 3960 after Thursday's soft NFP (57K vs 110K) trimmed Fed hike bets, printing successive higher lows back to 4164. Price holds above a rising EMA20/EMA50 stack but stalls just under the 4200 breakout level that has capped the advance. The broader H4 picture remains a 3960-4200 range with ATR still elevated from the early-week flush.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,030.00, 3,960.00
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,280.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4200 opens the path toward the 4280 area
Failure to hold 4100 reopens 4030 and the 3960 YTD lows
ISM Services Mon + FOMC minutes Wed could materially shift this read
17:04 UTC
Recovery off YTD lows, momentum building · RSI 60 · price 4,164.83
Higher lows since the 3942 base, capped under 4200.
Gold carved a double bottom near 3942/3964 at the YTD lows before Thursday's soft NFP (57K vs 110K) flipped the tape, lifting price back above 4100 on pared Fed hike bets. Structure now shows higher lows into a rounded recovery, with EMA20 back above EMA50 and price stalling just under the 4195 swing high — the $4,200 breakout level the digest flags. ATR remains elevated after the mid-window flush, so the compression under 4200 sits inside a still-volatile regime.
Support: 4,123.00, 4,030.00, 3,960.00
Resistance: 4,195.00, 4,200.00, 4,280.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4200 confirms the breakout toward the 4280 target
Failure to hold 4123 reopens the 4030/3960 base
ISM Services (Mon) and FOMC minutes (Wed) are the week's key catalysts for this read
Gold has been in a multi-week downtrend from 4465 into the 3941-3960 YTD-low zone, which held twice to form a double bottom. Thursday's NFP miss (57K vs 110K) triggered a 2%+ relief rally that reclaimed the 4100 pivot, with price now pressing the 4195 swing high; both H4 EMAs sit below. ATR remains elevated, so the bounce is expansionary rather than compressing.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,032.00, 3,950.00
Resistance: 4,195.00, 4,260.00
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 4100 re-exposes 4032 then the 3950 ytd lows
Close above 4195 opens the path to the 4260 prior high
ISM Services Mon and FOMC Minutes Wed could materially shift this read
Higher lows off YTD-low base, back above 4100 pivot.
Gold based near the YTD lows around 3945 and has clawed back above the 4100 pivot, printing higher lows since the base — the leg up accelerated on Thursday's big NFP miss that knocked USD and yields. Price has retraced just over half the 4382-3942 decline and is now pressing recent-high resistance near 4195, with the 4030 round number and 3945 ytd low below. ATR stays elevated, consistent with expansion off the lows.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,030.00, 3,945.00
Resistance: 4,195.00, 4,257.00
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 4100 returns price into the prior 4000-4100 range
Failure to clear 4195 recent high keeps the corrective-bounce read intact; 4257 prior swing is the next cap
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Double-bottom base off 3942, higher lows building.
Multi-week downtrend from ~4465 bottomed at 3942, and price has since carved a double-bottom base with a string of higher lows. The NFP miss (57K vs 110K) fuelled a short-covering leg that cleared the 4100 pivot, now sitting at 4181 above both EMAs. ATR(14) stays elevated, consistent with an expansion phase off the lows.
Support: 4,100.00, 3,942.00
Resistance: 4,210.00, 4,257.00
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 4100 re-exposes the 3942 ytd low and negates the breakout
Acceptance above 4210 opens the path toward the 4257 prior high
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the key risks that could reprice this recovery
H4 traced a persistent decline from ~4475 into the 3945/3960 double-bottom zone near YTD lows before a sharp reversal. The 57K NFP miss (vs 110K) trimmed Fed hike bets and fuelled a short-covering rally back above the 4100 pivot, with price now pressing the recent high at 4195. ATR remains elevated, so the bounce is running with momentum rather than compressing.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,032.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,195.00, 4,221.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4195 opens the path toward the 4221 swing high
Failure to hold the 4100 pivot risks a rotation back to 4032/4000
ISM Services (Mon) and FOMC Minutes (Wed) could materially shift this read
Multi-week downtrend from 4450 bottomed out on a double bottom around 3942/3964, and the outsized NFP miss (57K vs 110K) drove a decisive short-covering break back above the 4100 pivot to 4175. Structure has shifted from persistent lower-highs to a near-term recovery, with 4220 the first swing-high cap overhead. ATR remains elevated, keeping ranges wide as the rebound extends.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,032.00, 3,945.00
Resistance: 4,220.00, 4,316.00
What it said to watch
Close above 4220 opens the path toward the 4316 prior high
Failure to hold the 4100 pivot reopens 4032 and the 3945 lows
ISM Services PMI Mon Jul 6 and FOMC Minutes Wed could materially shift this read
The month-long downtrend from 4474 stalled at the YTD low near 3941, printing a double bottom before Thursday's big NFP miss (57K vs 110K) knocked the USD and drove a relief bounce back above the $4,100 pivot WGC flags as the pivot to ease June's bearish tone. Price now sits at 4126 between that reclaimed 4100 support and the 4143 recent high, with EMA20 back above EMA50. ATR remains elevated, consistent with the wide swings around the base.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,000.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,143.00, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4143 opens the path toward 4200
Failure to hold 4100 reopens 4000 psych and the 3941 ytd low
ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) and FOMC minutes (Wed) could materially shift this read