Higher lows off NY session low, compressing in a tight box below the Asia high.
Gold ran from 4143 to the 4207.48 Asia high after Trump's Iran comment. London faded it to 4175, and NY swept to the 4168.57 session low before the Michigan sentiment miss lifted price back. Late NY has stacked higher lows into a 4192–4202 box capped by the ny high and the 4200 handle, and price is now testing the rising trendline into the weekly close with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 4,192.50, 4,185.31, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,202.09, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4202.09 ny high opens a retest of the 4207.48 asia high and the $4,200 range ceiling
Close below the 4192.5 higher low breaks the trendline and the higher-low chain, exposing the 4185.31 swing low
Loss of the 4168.57 session low negates the NY recovery
Weekend gap risk on Iran/Hormuz and oil headlines; US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC is the next major catalyst
20:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend from NY low, momentum flattening · RSI 58 · price 4,195.97
Higher lows since NY low, compressing under NY high late session.
Asia ran from 4130 to a 4207.48 day high on the Iran relief headline. London faded that to 4175, and early NY swept down to the 4168.57 NY low. A higher-low sequence followed as yields slipped on the Michigan sentiment miss (46.3 vs 47.6). Late NY is compressing at 4193–4198, holding the 4192.5 higher low under the 4202.09 NY high, with RSI(14) neutral near 58.
Support: 4,192.50, 4,180.87, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,202.09, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close below the NY higher-lows trendline and the 4192.5 higher low ends the NY sequence and exposes the 4180.87 swing low
Close above the 4202.09 NY high puts the 4207.48 day high and $4,200 range top back in play
Session ends into the weekend; Iran/Hormuz or oil headlines could gap Monday's open away from these levels
Below 4180.87, the 38.2–50% zone of the NY rally fib sits at 4189–4185 and the 4168.57 NY low comes back into view
Higher lows off NY low, compressing under day high.
Asia-session relief after the Iran headline lifted gold from 4131 to the 4207.48 day high. London faded that move to 4175, and the dip at the NY open to the 4168.57 ny low held near the 50% fib. After the Michigan miss, price built a higher low at 4185.31 and ground higher. Late in the NY session it is compressing between the 4192.48 swing low and a 4202.09 session high, with lower highs capping just over the 4200 round number.
Support: 4,192.48, 4,185.31, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,202.09, 4,207.48, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4207.48 day high breaks the lower-highs cap at the 4200 range ceiling
Loss of the 4192.48 swing low exposes the 4185.31 higher low, then the 4168.57 ny low and 50% fib
Weekend gap risk on Iran/oil headlines; Fedspeak Mon-Tue and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC are the larger catalysts
Gold squeezed back to $4,200 on softer yields and the Michigan sentiment miss, but the Asian spike to 4207.5 and the London and late-NY session highs near 4202 were all rejected. Since the 4168.6 NY low the M15 chart has printed rising lows into the 4192.5 area, and price is compressing under the 4200-4207 cap as Friday's NY session winds down. RSI(14) sits mid-50s.
Support: 4,192.50, 4,185.30, 4,168.60
Resistance: 4,202.10, 4,207.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4207.5 Asian high breaks the 4200 cap that has held through three sessions
Loss of 4192.5 rising lows, then the 4185.3 swing low, breaks the higher-low trendline from the 4168.6 NY low
Weekend Iran/Hormuz headlines carry gap risk into Monday's open; Fed's Hammack speaks Mon 16:50 UTC
Day range 4168.57–4207.48; higher lows off NY low, capped below 4202.
Asia spiked to the 4207.48 asia high before London faded to 4175. The NY session swept that low to the 4168.57 ny low, then built higher lows on softer yields and the Michigan sentiment miss. Late NY, price is coiling just under the 4200 psych and 4202.09 ny high, holding above the 4192.48 swing low with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 4,192.48, 4,185.31, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,202.09, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4202.09 ny high and 4207.48 asia high breaks the day's range top
Loss of the 4192.48 swing low exposes the fib 50% at 4185.3, then the 4168.57 ny low
Friday close into the weekend: Iran/Hormuz headlines carry gap risk; US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC is the next major catalyst
Higher lows off the NY low into a flat 4200–4202 cap; lower highs from the London high.
Late NY session, about 90 minutes before the weekly close. Softer yields have lifted gold off the 4168.57 NY low, a sweep of the midday 4175 low that was quickly reclaimed, but the 4200 cap has rejected price four times under the 4207.48 London high, leaving a lower highs line overhead. Price is now slipping beneath the rising lows line near 4194 with RSI(14) flat at 53.
Support: 4,192.48, 4,185.33, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4192.48 swing low breaks the rising lows chain and exposes the 50% fib at 4185.33
M15 close above the 4200 cap clears the lower highs line and puts the 4207.48 london high back in play
Loss of the 4168.57 ny low would negate the NY-session recovery
Weekly close inside 2h; weekend Iran/Hormuz headlines carry gap risk for the open
The Asia rally topped at the 4207.48 day high before London faded it. The NY open swept the London low to a 4168.57 NY low and reversed, and price has since printed a rising trendline of higher lows, retracing about 75% of the 4207–4168 decline on softer yields and the Michigan miss. Late in NY hours, price is pressing the 4200 psych and the 4202.09 NY high with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 4,192.48, 4,185.31, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,202.09, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4207.48 day high clears both the Asia peak and the 4200 psych cap
A break of the 4192.48 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain, with the 4185.31 higher low next
Friday close is under 2h away; weekend Iran/Hormuz headlines carry gap risk
Higher lows from the NY sweep low, retesting the $4,200 lid.
The Asia session spiked to 4207.48 at the $4,200 lid and was rejected. London bled lower, and early NY swept down to the ny low at 4168.57, holding near the 38.2–50% zone of the Asia rally fib. Since then a higher low chain (4180.87, 4185.31, 4192.48) has ground price back to a 4202.09 ny high late in the NY session, on softer yields and the Michigan miss.
Support: 4,192.48, 4,180.87, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,202.09, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
A close above the 4207.48 asia high would clear the $4,200 lid that capped the day
A break below the 4192.48 swing low cuts the higher-low trendline; losing the 4180.87 higher low exposes the 4168.57 ny low
Late-Friday print: weekend gap risk on Iran/Hormuz headlines
US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC is the next major catalyst for the $4,100–$4,200 range
18:48 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since NY open · RSI 60 · price 4,195.37
Higher-low chain from 4168.57 NY low, pressing 4200 ny high.
Gold slid from the 4207.48 Asia high through London to a 4168.57 NY low. It has since built higher lows at 4180.87 and 4192.48 and is now past the 61.8% retrace of that pullback, testing the 4200.39 ny high late in the NY session. The Michigan sentiment miss was offset by firmer inflation expectations, which kept the upside measured.
Support: 4,192.48, 4,180.87, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,200.39, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4207.48 asia high clears the day's range top
Break of the 4192.48 swing low and the NY higher-lows trendline ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 4180.87 higher low
Loss of the 4168.57 ny low would mark a lower low on the day
Late-Friday NY trade into the weekend is thin; US CPI on Wed Oct 14 is the next major risk
The Asia rally from 4121 to the 4207.48 day high came as yields and the USD pulled back. London faded it, and early NY dipped to the 4168.57 NY low, about a 45% retrace, before buyers stepped in. Late in the NY session, price is retesting the 4200 area through a chain of higher lows (4180.87 swing low, then 4190.84). The Michigan miss and firmer inflation expectations have kept the push measured.
Support: 4,190.84, 4,180.87, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,200.39, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4207.48 day high breaks the Asia peak and extends the uptrend read
Failure to hold the 4190.84 higher low and the NY higher-lows trendline turns this into a range under 4200
Loss of the 4180.87 swing low exposes the 4168.57 NY low, and a break there flips intraday structure
Weekly close in about 2.5h plus weekend Iran/Hormuz headlines bring gap risk; Fed's Hammack speaks Mon 16:50 UTC
18:18 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the NY low, pressing range top · RSI 65 · price 4,197.17
Higher-low chain since 4168.57, still inside the 4168–4207 range set after Asia.
Asia session drove gold from 4131 to the 4207.48 asia high as US yields and the USD eased. London faded from the 4201.89 london high, and the move bottomed at the 4168.57 ny low early in NY. Since then a rising trendline of higher lows (4180.87 higher low, 4185.31 swing low) has carried price back to the 4200.39 ny high, near the 78.6% fib of the Asia-high-to-NY-low drop, with RSI(14) firm at 65.
Support: 4,185.31, 4,180.87, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,200.39, 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4207.48 asia high clears the day's range top; repeated rejection at 4200–4202 keeps the range read intact
Break of the rising trendline and the 4185.31 swing low exposes the 4180.87 higher low and the 4168.57 ny low
Late-Friday NY hours into the weekend: Fedspeak (Hammack Mon) and Wed US CPI could reopen the 4200 test
Higher-low chain since NY low, compressing under london high.
Asia carried gold from 4131 to a 4207.48 day high as yields eased. London faded the move to 4175, and NY swept that low at 4168.57 (ny low) before reversing. Late NY has reclaimed most of the pullback, printing higher lows at 4180.87 and 4187.20 along a rising trendline and pressing the london high at 4201.89 and the $4,200 cap, with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 4,187.20, 4,180.87, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4201.89 london high exposes the 4207.48 day high and tests the $4,200 cap
Break of the rising trendline and the 4187.20 higher low shifts focus back to the 4180.87 swing low
Loss of the 4180.87 swing low reopens the 4168.57 ny low
Friday late-NY liquidity thins into the weekend; US CPI on Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC is the week's key catalyst
The Asia rally on softer yields and USD tagged the $4,200 cap at the 4207.48 Asia high. London faded it, and early NY swept the 4175 morning low to the 4168.57 day low before demand returned. After London close, price is printing rising lows off the 4180.87 swing low and compressing below the 4196.46 NY high and 4201.89 London high. The UoM miss with firmer inflation expectations left little mark on the tape.
Support: 4,187.20, 4,180.87, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,196.46, 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4196.46 NY high and 4201.89 London high puts the 4207.48 Asia high and $4,200 cap back in play
Break of the rising lows near 4187 exposes the 4180.87 swing low
Loss of the 4168.57 day low negates the NY recovery and the 38.2% hold of the Asia rally fib
Friday close into the weekend thins liquidity; Fed's Hammack Mon and US CPI Wed 14 Oct are the next catalysts
The Asia rally from 4131 topped at the 4207.48 day high, and the first-hour-of-NY flush held near the 50% retracement of that Asia rally at the 4168.57 session low. Since then a higher low at 4180.87, then 4187.2, has compressed price under the 4196.46 NY high, with the round number at 4200 just above. The UoM sentiment miss and firmer inflation expectations only produced a brief swing inside the range.
Support: 4,187.20, 4,180.87, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,196.46, 4,200.00, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4196.46 NY high breaks the compression and exposes the 4200 round number and 4207.48 day high
Loss of the 4187.2 higher low and the swing low at 4180.87 breaks the higher-lows trendline and reopens the 4168.57 session low
Late NY Friday after London close: thinner liquidity and weekend gap risk
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC is the next catalyst for the 4200 area
NY range 4181–4196 with higher lows off 4168.57, under the session high.
Asia rallied from 4131 to a 4207.48 session high as yields eased. That level was rejected, and London faded to the 4175.2 london low. NY then dipped to the 4168.57 swing low, roughly the 50% retrace of the Asia rally fib, and rebuilt higher lows despite the stagflationary UoM print. Price is now pressing the ny range top near 4196 into late NY, with RSI neutral at 55 and both EMAs below price.
Support: 4,180.90, 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,196.46, 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4196.46 ny range top puts the 4201.89 london high and $4,200 cap back in play
A break of the 4207.48 session high would void the rejection read
Loss of the ny range low at 4180.9 and the rising trendline exposes the 4175.2 london low, then the 4168.57 swing low
Friday close liquidity thins the tape; Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC is the next scheduled USD input
17:07 UTC
Rebounding off NY low, momentum flat · RSI 57 · price 4,191.51
Higher lows under 4196 NY high, compressing below 4200.
Asia carried the rally to a 4207.48 day high and London faded it to 4175. NY then broke below that London low to a 4168.57 NY low and reclaimed it, a false break. Price is now compressing after London close near the 61.8% fib of the day high-to-NY low drop (~4192.6), with higher lows at 4180.87 and the 4185.31 swing low sitting under the 4196.46 NY high. The stagflationary UoM print (sentiment miss, 1y expectations 4.7%) gave no clean push, and the 4201.89 London high to 4207.48 day high band still caps.
Support: 4,185.31, 4,180.87, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,196.46, 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4196.46 NY high clears the 61.8% fib and exposes the 4201.89 London high and the 4207.48 day high
Break of the 4185.31 swing low and the 4180.87 higher low breaks the NY higher-lows trendline and reopens the 4168.57 NY low
Late-Friday NY tape into the weekend close; Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) is the next scheduled USD risk ahead of Wed CPI
Lower highs from Asia high; post-London range 4181–4194.
The Asia session rally tagged the 4207.48 Asia high before a rejection near the $4,200 cap. London then sold off to the 4175.20 London low, and the NY open swept that level to the 4168.57 NY low before reclaiming it. After London close, price is compressing in a 4181–4194 range just under the 61.8% fib of the 4207–4168 drop and a lower-highs line, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 4,180.87, 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,196.46, 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4196.46 NY high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 4201.89 London high and the 4,200 cap back into play
Close below the 4180.87 range low reopens the 4175.20 London low and the 4168.57 NY low
Thin Friday close; Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) and Wednesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
16:33 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, highs drifting lower · RSI 54 · price 4,188.36
Contracting NY range 4168–4196, lower highs above, higher lows below.
The Asia rally from 4131 tagged the asia high at 4207.48 as yields eased. London faded it, and NY swept the london low at 4175 down to the ny low at 4168.57, close to the 50% fib of the Asia rally, before recovering. Late in the NY session price is compressing near 4188, between a lower-high trendline (4196 ny high, 4193.67 lower high) and a higher low at 4181, with little reaction to the stagflationary UoM print.
Support: 4,180.87, 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,193.67, 4,196.46, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower-high trendline and the 4196 ny high reopens the 4207 asia high
Failure to hold the 4181 higher low exposes the london low at 4175 and the ny low at 4168.57; a break of the latter voids the 50% fib hold
Thin late-Friday liquidity and weekend gap risk; Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts
Lower highs from 4207.48 vs higher lows from the 4168.57 session low; tightening range.
Gold has faded from the 4207.48 asia high through London as the USD firmed. NY swept the London low to a 4168.57 session low before buyers stepped in. Late in the NY session, price is pressing the lower-highs line and the 61.8% fib near 4193, with a higher low at 4180.87 and RSI(14) at 59.
Support: 4,180.87, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,196.46, 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4196.46 ny high breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 4201.89 london high and 4207.48 asia high near the $4,200 cap.
Failure to hold the 4180.87 higher low reopens the 4168.57 session low.
The Friday NY close and thinning liquidity could leave the range unresolved into the weekend; Hammack speaks Mon 16:50 UTC.
16:06 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, NY recovering off lows · RSI 55 · price 4,188.83
Higher low at 4180.9 inside the 4168.6–4196.5 NY range, below the Asia high.
The Asia rally topped at the 4207.48 asia high above $4,200. London faded it to the 4175.2 london low, and the NY open swept that level to a 4168.57 session low, near the 50% retrace on the asia rally fib, before reclaiming it. Late NY is compressing between a 4180.9 higher low and a 4192.4 intraday cap with RSI(14) neutral near 55. The UoM miss with firmer inflation expectations sparked only a brief spike to the 4196.46 ny high.
Support: 4,180.90, 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,192.40, 4,196.46, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4192.4 intraday cap reopens the 4196.46 ny high and the 4207.48 asia high at the $4,200 cap
Break below the 4180.9 higher low breaks the ny higher lows line and exposes the 4175.2 london low and 4168.57 session low
Loss of the 4168.57 session low takes price below the 50% asia rally fib and negates the sweep-and-reclaim read
Friday late-NY liquidity is thinning into the weekend; Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) is the next scheduled risk ahead of Wed CPI
The Asian session rally from 4131 tagged the 4207.48 day high, where supply capped the $4,200 area as yields stabilised. London faded the move and NY dropped to the 4168.57 NY low, almost exactly the 50% retracement, before recovering. Price now sits mid-range between the 4180.87 higher low and the 4196.46 NY high, with lower highs intact, RSI(14) neutral near 55 and the stagflationary UMich print adding little direction.
Support: 4,180.87, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,196.46, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4196.46 NY high breaks the lower highs and puts the 4207.48 day high back in play
Failure to hold the 4180.87 higher low reopens the 4168.57 NY low and 50% retracement
Friday close in about 5h; thin late-NY liquidity and weekend headline gap risk (Iran/Hormuz)
Gold's Asia-session rally on a softer USD and lower yields tagged the asia high at 4207 near the $4,200 cap before being rejected. The London pullback held the 50% retracement and london low near 4175, and the NY low at 4168.57 sits at the 61.8% retracement. Since then a higher low at 4180.87 has formed, and the stagflationary UoM print kept NY in a 4168–4196 band with price mid-range.
Support: 4,180.87, 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,196.46, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ny high at 4196.46 reopens the asia high / $4,200 cap at 4207
Loss of the higher low at 4180.87 breaks the rising trendline and exposes the london low at 4175
Break of the ny low at 4168.57 voids the 61.8% retracement hold
Friday close in ~5h may thin liquidity. US CPI on Wed is the next major catalyst
15:18 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, lower highs forming · RSI 50 · price 4,185.01
Compressing range 4168–4207, lower highs 4207.5→4201.9→4196.5.
Gold has ranged since the Asia rally topped at the 4207.5 asia high near the $4,200 cap, printing lower highs at 4201.9 and the 4196.5 ny high. The 4168.6 sweep low held near the 50% retrace of the Asia rally, and the stagflationary UoM print barely registered. Price is compressing around 4185 above the 4180.9 micro low, with RSI flat near 50 and price straddling the EMAs.
Support: 4,180.87, 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,196.46, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4196.5 ny high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 4207.5 asia high back into view
Failure to hold the 4180.9 micro low exposes the 4175.2 london low and the 4168.6 sweep low
A break below the 4168.6 sweep low gives up the 50% retrace of the Asia rally
Late-Friday NY liquidity is thinning; US CPI on Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC is the next major catalyst
15:06 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, lower highs under 4200 · RSI 50 · price 4,183.55
Contracting range 4168–4207, lower highs from asia high, lows defended.
The Asia rally faded after a rejection at the 4207.48 asia high above the $4,200 cap. London and NY have since printed lower highs at 4201.89 and the 4196.46 ny high, while the NY sweep low at 4168.57 tagged the 50% of the asia rally fib and was reclaimed. Price is compressing near 4183 in mid-NY after the stagflationary UoM print drew a muted reaction, with RSI(14) flat near 50 and price just under both EMAs.
Support: 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,196.46, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4196.46 ny high breaks the lower-high line and puts the 4207.48 asia high and $4,200 cap back in play
Failure to hold the 4175.20 london low reopens the 4168.57 sweep low, the 50% level of the asia rally fib
A close below 4168.57 would confirm a lower-low and end the range read
Friday NY afternoon into London close, with no US data left today; Fed's Hammack on Monday is the next scheduled catalyst
14:48 UTC
Intraday range under the 4207 day high, lower highs · RSI 49 · price 4,184.37
NY range 4168–4196 after a false break of the London low; price mid-range.
The Asia-session rally ran to a 4207.48 day high on softer yields and USD. London then faded it in a series of lower highs. Early NY dipped through the London low at 4175.20 to a 4168.57 NY low, then recovered to a 4196.46 NY high. Since the stagflationary UoM print, price has chopped around 4184, holding the 50% fib of that NY swing with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 4,182.50, 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,196.46, 4,200.00, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4196.46 NY high breaks the lower-high trendline and puts 4200 psych and the 4207.48 day high back in play
Loss of the 50% fib at 4182.5 reopens the 4175.20 London low, then the 4168.57 NY low
Late-Friday NY trade into the weekend; Iran headlines or Monday's Hammack remarks could gap the reopen
14:33 UTC
Pullback from Asia high, ranging mid-NY · RSI 52 · price 4,185.07
Lower highs since 4207, 4168-4196 swing range.
Gold has faded from the 4207.48 day high, set in late Asia on softer yields, through a run of lower highs. The 4201.89 London high capped first, and a 12:45 UTC sweep low at 4168.57, near the 61.8% fib of the Asia rally, recovered only to a 4196.46 lower high. The stagflationary UoM print at 14:00 UTC triggered a two-way swing to the 4182.24 uom low, and price now sits mid-range at EMA20 with RSI(14) ~52.
Support: 4,182.24, 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,196.46, 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4196.46 lower high and trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, exposing the 4201.89 London high and 4207.48 day high
Failure to hold the 4182.24 uom low puts the 4175.20 prior low back in play
Close below the 4168.57 sweep low loses the 61.8% fib of the Asia rally and confirms a lower low
Friday NY session into the weekly close; Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC is the next scheduled Fed risk, CPI Wed 12:30 UTC
14:18 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, highs stepping lower · RSI 55 · price 4,188.51
4168–4207 range, lower highs off session high.
Asia-session rally from 4131 topped at the 4207.48 session high, and London capped at the 4201.89 London high. NY then swept the London low at 4175.20 down to 4168.57, near the 50% fib, and reclaimed it. Price sits mid-range at 4188.5 under the lower-highs line, the stagflationary UoM print at 14:00 UTC drew little reaction, and RSI(14) is neutral at 55.
Support: 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,196.46, 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
A break of the 4196.46 NY high tests the lower-highs line and the 4201.89 London high
An M15 close above the 4207.48 session high breaks the range and the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 4168.57 NY low (50% fib) brings the 61.8% retracement near 4160 into view
No scheduled US data into the Friday close; Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC) are the next catalysts
14:05 UTC
Pullback range after Asia rally · RSI 56 · price 4,188.72
London lower high and lower low; NY swept the London low then reclaimed.
The yield-driven Asia rally topped at the 4207.48 Asia high above 4200, and London faded it to the 4175.20 London low. The NY open swept that low to 4168.57, the NY low, which sits near the 50% of the Asia rally fib, then recovered to 4196.46. Price is mid-range near 4188 into the Michigan release, with RSI(14) neutral around 56.
Support: 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,196.46, 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4196.46 NY high puts the 4201.89 London high and 4207.48 Asia high back in play
Failure to hold the 4175.20 London low reopens the 4168.57 NY low and the 50% Asia rally fib
Michigan sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations around 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:48 UTC
Pullback from Asia high, lower highs since · RSI 53 · price 4,188.52
Lower highs under 4207, false break of london low reclaimed.
Gold's yield-driven Asia rally topped at the 4207.48 asia high, just above the 4200 cap. London then faded to the 4175.20 london low. A first-hour-of-NY flush to the 4168.57 sweep low was reclaimed within the hour, a false break of the london low. Price now sits near the 50% retrace of the 4207–4168 drop, capped by the lower-highs line and the 4192.43 ny high, ahead of Michigan sentiment.
Support: 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,192.43, 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4192.43 ny high and the lower-highs line reopens the 4201.89 london high
Acceptance above the 4207.48 asia high clears the 4200 cap and ends the lower-highs sequence
Failure back below the 4175.20 london low, then the 4168.57 sweep low, confirms the lower-high/lower-low read
Michigan sentiment plus 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4207 Asia high, NY sweep low reclaimed.
NY open swept the 4175.2 london low down to the 4168.57 sweep low, near the 50% fib of the Asia rally, then recovered to 4188 as yields eased. Lower highs from the 4207.48 asia high and 4201.89 london high still cap, with the 4191.39 ny high the first test; RSI(14) is neutral at 56 and ATR is about 610 pips.
Support: 4,184.00, 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,191.39, 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
Michigan sentiment plus 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4191.39 ny high brings the lower-highs line and 4201.89 london high into play
Rejection at the 4200 area again keeps the lower-highs sequence from the 4207.48 asia high intact
Loss of the ema20 near 4184 plus a close below the 4175.2 london low reopens the 4168.57 sweep low
13:18 UTC
Pullback from Asia high, lower highs since 4207 · RSI 41 · price 4,180.83
Lower-high sequence; NY sweep below london low reclaimed, chopping 4168–4191.
Gold rallied from 4131 to the 4207.48 asia high as yields eased, then London printed a lower high at 4201.89 and slid to the 4175.20 london low. The first hour of NY spiked to the 4191.39 ny high and swept to 4168.57, near the 50% retrace of the Asia rally, before reclaiming 4180. Price sits below EMA20 and on EMA50, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,191.39, 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
Michigan sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (~45 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 4168.57 sweep low confirms a lower-low through the 50% retrace
Close above the 4191.39 ny high breaks the lower-high line and puts the 4201.89 lower high and 4207.48 asia high back in play
Failure to hold the 4175.20 london low keeps the lower-high sequence intact
13:07 UTC
Pullback from Asian high, lower highs intact · RSI 41 · price 4,178.45
Lower-high sequence 4207→4202→4191; 38.2–50% retrace of the Asian rally holding.
The Asia-session rally on softer yields topped at the 4207.48 asian high. London printed a lower high at 4201.89, and the 12:30 UTC rejection at 4191.39 extended the descending trendline. The 12:45 sweep of the 4175.20 swing low reached a 4168.57 session low at the 50% fib of the Asian rally, then recovered to the 38.2% near 4178, with RSI(14) ~41 and price under EMA20 into the NY open.
Support: 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,191.39, 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
Michigan sentiment plus 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (~55 min) could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 4191.39 lower high breaks the descending trendline from the asian high
Failure to hold the 4168.57 session low confirms a lower-low below the 50% fib
london high 4201.89 and asian high 4207.48 cap the $4,200 area
12:48 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asian rally, momentum faded · RSI 42 · price 4,181.23
Lower highs from 4207.48 compressing above the 4175.20 London low.
Gold's Asian rally from 4131 on easing yields and USD peaked at the 4207.48 Asia high. London printed a lower high at 4201.89 and slid to the 4175.20 London low, just under the 38.2% retrace of the Asian rally fib. The first NY probe to 4191.39 was rejected, extending the lower-highs sequence, with price pinned near the EMA20 and RSI(14) around 42.
Support: 4,175.20, 4,169.72
Resistance: 4,191.39, 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4191.39 lower high breaks the lower-highs line; above the 4201.89 London high exposes the 4207.48 Asia high
Failure to hold the 4175.20 London low opens the 4169.72 Asia pivot near the 50% of the Asian rally fib
Lower highs below 4207.5 after Asia rally; London low held at 38.2% fib.
Asia rallied gold from 4131 to a 4207.5 session high on easing yields and USD. London printed a lower high at 4201.9 (the london high), then faded to a 4175.2 london low near the 38.2% fib of that leg. Price is lifting off the 4179.5 range base into the London-NY transition at 4190.6, back above EMA20 (~4186) with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 4,179.50, 4,175.20
Resistance: 4,201.90, 4,207.50
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4201.9 london high and 4207.5 session high would break the lower-high sequence and clear the $4,200 cap
Failure to hold the 4179.5 range base and 4175.2 london low would extend the retrace below the 38.2% fib of the overnight leg
Lower highs off 4207.5 day high, basing in a 4175–4186 range.
Gold ran from 4131 in Asia to a 4207.48 day high as yields and the USD eased, but that spike was rejected and London printed a lower high at 4201.9 before sliding to a 4175.2 swing low. Late London is now basing near the asia rally fib 38.2% (4178), capped by the 4186.4 range top with RSI(14) near 42 and price under EMA20.
Support: 4,175.20, 4,169.50
Resistance: 4,186.40, 4,201.90, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 4175.2 swing low opens the asia shelf near 4169.5, the 50% fib
M15 close above the 4186.4 range top breaks the lower highs line and puts 4201.9 then the 4207.48 day high back in view
Lower highs from 4200 through London, holding above 38.2% fib.
Asia-session rally from 4131 ran to the asia high at 4207.48 as yields and USD eased, but supply has capped the 4200 area since. London has printed a chain of falling highs: the london high at 4201.89, then a lower high at 4186.42. The fade found demand at the london low of 4175.20, near the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally, and price is now compressing at 4180–4186 into the NY open.
Support: 4,175.20, 4,170.05
Resistance: 4,186.42, 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 4175.20 london low exposes the 4170 asia shelf and the 50% fib near 4169
Close above the 4186.42 lower high breaks the falling-highs trendline and puts the 4201.89 london high back in play
Failure again at the 4207.48 asia high would confirm a double rejection at 4200
11:48 UTC
Pullback after Asia rally, momentum soft · RSI 38 · price 4,182.42
Lower high at 4201.89, lower lows into 4175.20; London inside Asian range.
Asia-session rally from 4131 tagged the 4207.48 asia high as yields and USD eased. London stalled at a 4201.89 london high, a lower high under 4200, and has slipped to a 4175.20 london low just under the 38.2% fib; late London price sits below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 4,175.20, 4,169.31
Resistance: 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4175.20 london low exposes the 50% fib at 4169.31
Reclaim of the 4201.89 london high reopens the 4207.48 asia high and the $4,200 cap
UoM sentiment plus 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:33 UTC
Pullback within intraday uptrend · RSI 44 · price 4,184.54
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4207 spike.
Asia ran from 4131 to a 4207.48 asia high as yields and the USD eased, but the push above $4,200 was a false break. London printed a lower high at 4201.89, lost the 4189.5 range floor and set a session low at 4175.20, near the 38.2% level of the asia rally fib. Late in the London session price is bouncing off that low and sits just under EMA20.
Support: 4,175.20, 4,170.00
Resistance: 4,189.50, 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4189.5 range floor reopens 4201.89 lower high and the 4207.48 asia high
Break of the lower-high line through 4200 would negate the pullback read
Loss of the 4175.20 session low exposes the 4170 asia shelf and the 50% asia rally fib near 4169
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, about 2.5h away, could materially shift this read
11:18 UTC
Pullback after Asia rally, momentum fading · RSI 41 · price 4,180.90
Double top under 4200, neckline broken, lower highs.
Gold rallied from 4131 to a 4207.5 day high during the Asia session as yields eased. Early London produced a second rejection at 4201.9, completing a double top, and price then broke the 4189.3 neckline. Mid-London, price is sitting on the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally near 4178 after printing a 4175.2 session low, with RSI(14) at 41 and price below EMA20.
Support: 4,175.20, 4,170.00
Resistance: 4,189.30, 4,201.90, 4,207.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4189.3 neckline negates the double top read
Failure to hold the 4175.2 session low exposes the 4170 asia pivot and 50% fib
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a push through the 4207.5 day high reopens the 4200 test
11:05 UTC
Pullback within overnight uptrend · RSI 34 · price 4,180.27
Lower highs and lows since London high.
Gold's rally from Thursday's 4105 low ran through Asia to 4207.5, the asia high, testing the $4,200 trendline as US yields eased. London stalled at a lower london high of 4201.9, then broke the 4189.5 broken shelf and has since printed lower highs and lower lows to the 4179.3 london low. RSI(14) is near 34 and price sits under EMA20 but just above EMA50 near 4176.
Support: 4,179.30, 4,173.50, 4,169.70
Resistance: 4,189.50, 4,201.90, 4,207.50
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4179.3 london low exposes the 4173.5 swing low and the fib 38.2 near 4169.7
M15 close back above the 4189.5 broken shelf negates the London pullback read, with the london high and asia high capping above
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, early NY session, could materially shift this read
Asia rally capped at 4207, London lower high and range-floor break.
Easing yields drove an Asia session rally from 4131 to a 4207.5 session high, tagging the $4,200 cap the digest flags, but London printed a lower high at 4201.9 and broke the 4189.4 range floor. Price is now testing the 4177 swing low and 38.2% fib zone, with RSI(14) near 33 and price below EMA20 but holding EMA50.
Support: 4,177.00, 4,170.00
Resistance: 4,189.40, 4,201.90, 4,207.50
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4177 swing low and 38.2% fib exposes the 50% fib near 4170
Reclaim of the 4189.4 range floor negates the London breakdown; lower high at 4201.9 caps above
M15 close above the 4207.5 session high breaks the lower-highs line
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC in NY hours could materially shift this read
Asia rally to 4207 capped; London lower high and range break lower.
Gold's Asia leg on softer yields ran from 4131 to a 4207.48 session high, but London printed a lower high at 4201.89 under the 4200 handle and broke the 4189.4 range floor. Price is now basing just above the 4182.88 london low mid-London, with RSI(14) near 38 and the pullback holding above the 50% fib of the Asia move.
Support: 4,182.88, 4,176.98, 4,169.72
Resistance: 4,189.40, 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
Close back above the 4189.4 range floor and the 4201.89 lower high would reopen the 4207.48 session high and the 4200 trendline zone
Failure to hold the 4182.88 london low exposes the 4176.98 swing low, then the 50% fib near 4169.7
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
10:04 UTC
Pullback from Asian high, momentum fading · RSI 43 · price 4,186.46
Lower high at 4201.89, slipped below the 4189 range floor.
Gold rallied from 4131 during the Asia session to an Asian high of 4207.48 at the $4,200 cap as yields and the USD eased. London stalled at a 4201.89 lower high, and the 05:30 UTC range floor near 4189 has given way to a 4182.88 session low. RSI(14) is near 43 and price sits under EMA20; the 38.2% fib of the Asian rally lies at 4178.
Support: 4,182.88, 4,178.30, 4,169.30
Resistance: 4,189.40, 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4189 range floor negates the range break
Break of the 4182.88 session low exposes the 38.2% fib at 4178, then the 50% fib near 4169
Close above the 4201.89 lower high and the 4207.48 asian high would put $4,200 acceptance in play
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:48 UTC
Asia uptrend stalled, London pulling back · RSI 50 · price 4,184.19
Lower high under 4207, range floor at 4189 broken.
Gold climbed from 4131 to 4207.48 in the Asia session as yields and the USD slipped. The push through 4200 was rejected. London then printed a lower high at 4201.89 and broke the 4189 range floor. Price is sitting just above the London low at 4182.88, between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement of the Asia leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 4,182.88, 4,176.98, 4,169.72
Resistance: 4,189.40, 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4189 range floor would recast the break as a false break
Loss of the 4182.88 London low exposes the 4177 swing low (near the 38.2% fib) and the fib 50% at 4170
Acceptance above the 4201.89 lower high and the 4207.48 Asia high would reopen the 4200 test
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, during NY hours, could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back from 4200 · RSI 44 · price 4,187.29
Asia rally capped at 4207, London lower high, 4189 range floor lost.
Gold ran from 4131 to a 4207 Asia high as softer yields and a weaker USD lifted it into the 4200 trendline cap. The spike above 4200 failed. London printed a lower high at 4201.89, then broke the 4189 range floor and the rising Asia trendline, with the session low at 4184.57 now in play. RSI(14) sits near 44, and the 4176.98 swing low and fib 50% at 4169 are the next references below.
Support: 4,184.57, 4,176.98, 4,169.31
Resistance: 4,189.40, 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4189 range floor negates the range break
Failure to hold the session low at 4184.57 exposes the swing low at 4176.98, then the fib 50% near 4169
Acceptance above the lower high at 4201.89 and the asia high at 4207 reopens the 4200 breakout read
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:06 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, rolling over below 4200 · RSI 49 · price 4,186.32
Lower high under the Asia high; 4189-4202 range floor giving way.
The Asia-session rally from 4131 ran into the $4,200 cap at the 4207.5 Asia high as yields and the USD eased. London printed a lower high at the 4201.9 London high and is now slipping through the 4189 range floor, which also sits on the 23.6% fib. The next supports are the 4180 round number and the 4177 swing low near the 38.2% retracement, with RSI(14) back at neutral.
Support: 4,180.00, 4,177.00
Resistance: 4,189.40, 4,201.90, 4,207.50
What it said to watch
M15 closes back above the 4189.4 range floor would negate the range break and restore the 4189-4202 consolidation
Failure to hold the 4177 swing low and 38.2% fib exposes the 50% retracement near 4169
A break above the lower-highs line and the 4207.5 Asia high would mark acceptance above the $4,200 cap
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight 4189–4202 range after Asia session breakout and rejection at 4207.
The Asia session rally from 4131 ran into the 4200 round number, matching the digest's read of softer yields and a weaker USD. Price spiked to the 4207.5 session high and was rejected there. London has since held a 4189–4202 range, with the range low tested five times and RSI(14) cooling to 52 as price sits on EMA20.
Support: 4,189.30, 4,180.00, 4,178.30
Resistance: 4,201.90, 4,207.50
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4189 range low exposes the 4180 prior high and the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally near 4178
Acceptance above the 4202 London high and the 4207.5 session high would end the range read
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (NY session) could materially shift this read
The Asia rally ran from 4131 to the 4207.48 Asia high as US yields and the USD eased. Since then gold has held a 4189–4202 range into early London, with the range low defended several times and the London session high at 4201.9 holding just above the 4200 round number. RSI(14) has cooled to ~61 and ATR(14) is ~633 pips, with both EMAs below price.
Support: 4,189.40, 4,177.00
Resistance: 4,201.90, 4,207.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4207.5 Asia high takes price out of the range and clears the 4200 round number
Failure to hold the 4189.4 range low exposes the 4177 swing low, near the 38.2% of the Asia rally
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight consolidation 4,189–4,199 after rejection at Asian session high.
Asia ran gold from 4,131 to a 4,207.48 session high on softer yields and a weaker USD. The spike through the 4,200 psych level was rejected, and price has since held a 4,189–4,199 consolidation, with the range low sitting on the 23.6% fib. Early London is still trading inside that band.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4,207.48 session high breaks the consolidation and clears the 4,200 psych cap
Failure below the 4,189.4 range low exposes the 38.2% fib near 4,178 and the 4,177 swing low
Repeated closes stalling at the 4,198.9 range top keep the rejection read intact
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Gold climbed through the Asia session from 4131 to a 4207.5 Asian high as yields and the USD eased, then saw a sharp rejection just above the 4200 psych and trendline area. Early London is holding a 4189.4–4198.5 range, with the range low sitting on the 23.6% retracement of the Asia rally and RSI(14) cooling to about 63.
Support: 4,189.40, 4,177.00
Resistance: 4,198.50, 4,200.00, 4,207.50
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4198.5 range high and 4200 psych reopens a test of the 4207.5 Asian high
Failure to hold the 4189.4 range low exposes the 4177 swing low near the 38.2% retracement of the Asia rally
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Steady HH/HL climb through Asia, now a tight 4189–4199 range after the 4207 spike.
Gold climbed from the 4131 Asia-open low to a 4207.48 session high in late Asia as softer yields and USD profit-taking extended the bounce. Price was rejected just above the $4,200 round figure and has since held a 4189–4199 range into early London, with RSI(14) cooled to around 60 and the rising support line from the overnight swing lows still intact.
Support: 4,189.43, 4,176.98
Resistance: 4,198.92, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4207.48 session high invalidates the rejection read at $4,200
Break of the 4189.43 range low and rising support near 4187 exposes the 4176.98 swing low, near the 38.2% retracement of the Asia rally
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
07:33 UTC
Uptrend, stalling after rejection at 4200 · RSI 69 · price 4,195.58
Asia HH/HL leg capped at 4207.48; London consolidating 4189–4199 above the 23.6% retrace.
Easing yields and a softer USD drove an Asia rally from 4131 to a 4207.48 session high, where price was rejected just above the 4200 round number. Early London is holding a 4189–4199 box, with the 4189.4 pullback low sitting on the 23.6% fib of the Asia leg. RSI(14) is near 69, warm rather than stretched.
Support: 4,189.40, 4,177.00
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4207.48 session high clears the rejection and the $4,200 trendline area flagged in the digest
Failure to hold the 4189.4 pullback low exposes the 4177 swing low near the 38.2% fib
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after rejection at 4207 · RSI 64 · price 4,194.18
Asia breakout above prior high, now a tight range below 4200.
Asia session rallied about $60 off the open, taking out the 4145.97 prior high as yields and the USD eased. The run was rejected at a 4207.48 session high near the $4,200 area. Early London is holding a 4189–4199 range, with the range high capping twice and RSI(14) cooled to 64.
Support: 4,189.43, 4,176.98, 4,145.97
Resistance: 4,198.92, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4189.43 range low breaks the rising support line near 4185 and exposes the 4176.98 pullback low
Close above the 4207.48 session high clears the $4,200 cap flagged in the macro read
Deeper pullback toward the 38.2% fib near 4168.5 would retrace the NY low-to-session high leg; the 4145.97 prior high sits below
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
Asia HH/HL chain; first pullback held the 23.6% fib.
Asia extended the yield-led bounce, clearing the 4180 breakout level and tagging the asia high at 4207.48, then saw rejection through the 4200 round number. The pullback found a swing low at 4189.43, the 23.6% retracement of the Asia rally. Price is pressing back toward 4200 into London open, with RSI(14) near 70.
Support: 4,189.43, 4,180.00
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4207.48 asia high clears the rejection at the 4200 round number
Loss of the 4189.43 swing low exposes a retest of the 4180 breakout shelf
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain through Asia; spike rejection at 4207, tight 4189–4199 hold.
Asia session carried gold roughly $75 higher, from 4131 to the 4207.48 Asia high, as Treasury yields and the USD extended their pullback. The 05:30 UTC spike through the $4,200 psych level, which sits at the trendline area flagged in the macro read, was rejected inside one bar. Price is now compressing above the 4189 pullback low into London open, with RSI(14) cooled to ~66 and the rising trendline off the 4169.72 higher low and 4176.98 swing low still intact.
Support: 4,189.43, 4,176.98, 4,169.72
Resistance: 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4207.48 Asia high negates the rejection read
Failure to hold the 4189.43 pullback low brings the 38.2% Asia impulse fib (~4183) and the rising trendline into play
A break of the 4176.98 swing low and 4169.72 higher low ends the Asia HH/HL chain
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after rejection · RSI 64 · price 4,189.88
Asia breakout above prior-day high, HH/HL chain now pulling back to rising trendline.
Gold extended its yield-driven bounce through the Asia session, breaking Thursday's 4146 high. The Asia leg ran to a 4207.48 asia high before a rejection at the 4200 psych level, near the digest's trendline cap. Late Asia, price is easing toward the 4189.5 pullback low and testing the rising trendline, with RSI(14) cooling to ~64.
Support: 4,189.52, 4,176.98, 4,169.31
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4207.48 asia high clears the 4200 psych rejection
Break of the rising trendline and the 4189.5 pullback low exposes the 4177 swing low, just under the 38.2% of the Asia leg fib
Loss of the 4169 50% fib would undo the Asia breakout structure
London open within the hour, typically an expansion point for the Asian range
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 4200 · RSI 66 · price 4,193.19
Asia HH/HL chain capped by a rejection wick at 4207; 4190 swing low holding.
Asia session extended gold's bounce on the yield and USD pullback, climbing from 4131 to a 4207.48 session high before a sharp rejection back under the 4200 psych and trendline area flagged in the digest. Late in Asia, ahead of London open, price is holding the 4190 swing low on the rising asia trendline, with the 38.2% fib clustered near the 4177 pullback low.
Support: 4,190.19, 4,176.98
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4200 psych and the 4207.48 session high would negate the rejection read
Failure to hold the 4190 swing low and asia trendline would expose the 4177 pullback low and the 38.2% fib
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:04 UTC
Uptrend, first rejection at 4200 · RSI 64 · price 4,193.13
HH/HL chain through Asia, pulling back from session high.
Asia session carried the yield-led bounce from the 4131 open through yesterday's 4146 high to an Asia high of 4207.48, with higher lows along the Asia trendline. The late-Asia spike was rejected just above the 4200 round number, near the trendline cap flagged in the digest, and has pulled back to 4192 into London open. RSI(14) has eased from overbought.
Support: 4,191.88, 4,176.98, 4,169.72
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4207.48 asia high reopens the trend leg and negates the rejection
Failure to hold the 4191.88 reject low puts the Asia trendline near 4188 and the 4176.98 swing low / 38.2% fib in play
A break below the 50% fib at 4169.7 would end the Asia HH/HL sequence
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
Higher highs and higher lows through Asia, prior-day range broken.
Asia session broke above yesterday's 4105–4146 range at the asian break near 4150 and ran roughly $75 on easing yields and a softer USD. The latest bar wicked to a session high at 4207.48, into the digest's $4,200 trendline area, and is holding at the 4200 psych level with RSI(14) near 81. The rally trendline is intact with the 4177 swing low as the last higher low.
Support: 4,200.00, 4,176.98, 4,150.46
Resistance: 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4200 psych level, with the session high wick left behind, marks rejection at the trendline area
A break of the rally trendline and the 4177 swing low ends the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 4207.48 session high extends the breakout beyond the digest's $4,180–4,200 cap
London open is the first liquidity test of the Asia move; UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC can materially shift this read
HH/HL chain through Asia; 4170–4180 range broken higher, price at session high.
Gold climbed roughly $65 off the 4131 Asia session open as the USD and Treasury yields eased. The asia break above yesterday's 4146–4150 highs carried price through the 4170–4180 range, and it is now printing a session high at 4196, just under the 4200 round number, with RSI(14) near 79 and London open about 90 minutes away.
Support: 4,180.00, 4,169.70
Resistance: 4,195.99, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 4200 round number with RSI(14) near 80 would mark the first stall of the Asia rally
M15 close back below the range top at 4180 puts the breakout in question; losing the range low at 4169.7 breaks the rising trendline structure
Sustained hold above 4200 extends the HH/HL chain beyond the current session high
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
05:17 UTC
Uptrend, extended into late Asia · RSI 74 · price 4,187.85
Higher lows stair-stepping off the 4131 Asia open; session high at 4188.
Gold has carried yesterday's yield and USD pullback through the Asia session, gaining about $57 off the 4131 open. A breakout through the 4146 prior high around 01:00 UTC set up a chain of rising lows into a fresh session high at 4188. RSI(14) near 74 is hot but trend-normal; the 4200 round number, flagged in the digest as the trendline cap, sits overhead.
Support: 4,176.98, 4,170.00, 4,146.00
Resistance: 4,188.32, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4177 swing low breaks the rising-lows chain
Loss of the 4170 consol base reopens a deeper pullback toward the 4146 prior high
Rejection or break at the 4188 session high / 4200 round number into London open
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:05 UTC
Uptrend, extended into resistance · RSI 73 · price 4,184.83
Higher highs and higher lows through Asia; breakout above Thursday's 4146 prior high, now at session high.
Late in the Asia session, gold has extended Thursday's rebound from the 4105 low. It cleared the 4145.97 prior high and printed a session high at 4185.78, helped by easing yields and a softer USD after Trump's Iran pause. Price is now pressing the 4180–4200 zone where rallies have been capped, with RSI(14) near 72, hot but not extreme. A shallow higher low at the 4176.98 pullback low is holding on rising support.
Support: 4,176.98, 4,169.72, 4,145.97
Resistance: 4,185.78, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4185.78 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 4200 round number, the cap area flagged in the digest
Break of rising support and the 4176.98 pullback low exposes the 4170 shelf low; losing that opens the 38.2% fib near 4155
50% fib of the 4105–4186 leg coincides with the 4145.97 prior high, the level the breakout would need to hold on a deeper pullback
London open in ~2h may reset the Asian range; UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain through Asia, compressing below 4185.78 session high.
Asia session extended the yield-driven bounce, clearing the 4145.97 prior high and 4150 at 01:00 UTC before grinding to a 4185.78 session high. RSI(14) is near 71 and bar ranges have compressed over the last two hours, with dips holding above the 4173.54 swing low. The 4200 psych level, flagged in the digest as trendline resistance, is the next reference overhead.
Support: 4,173.54, 4,161.10, 4,145.97
Resistance: 4,185.78, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4185.78 session high reopens the 4200 psych / trendline area
Failure to hold the 4173.54 swing low breaks the Asia HL chain and exposes the fib 38.2 of the advance from 4121 near 4161
Loss of the 4145.97 prior high would negate the Asia breakout
London open in ~2h is the first test of the Asian range high
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above prior high, HH/HL chain grinding higher.
Gold broke above yesterday's NY prior high at 4145.97 early in the Asia session as US yields and the USD eased, running to a session high at 4184.15 with RSI(14) near 78. Since the impulse, the pullback low at 4173.54 and swing low at 4169.72 have held, and price is grinding into the 4180 area flagged in the digest, below the 4200 round number.
Support: 4,173.54, 4,169.72, 4,145.97
Resistance: 4,184.15, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4169.72 swing low breaks the HL chain; 38.2% fib of the Asia leg sits near 4164
Loss of the 4145.97 prior high would mark the Asia breakout as a false break
Acceptance above the 4184.15 session high puts the 4200 round number and trendline area in play
UoM Sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under session high · RSI 69 · price 4,179.12
Asia breakout above NY high, tight 4170–4180 range.
Gold cleared the 4145.97 prior high in the first hours of the Asia session, and the 01:00–01:45 UTC breakout bar sequence ran to 4174 as US yields and the USD eased. Price has since held a 4170–4180 range, with three probes of the 4180.38 session high failing to extend. RSI(14) is cooling to the high 60s.
Support: 4,169.72, 4,161.50, 4,145.97
Resistance: 4,180.38, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4180.38 session high opens the 4200 round number and trendline area
Close below the 4169.72 range low exposes the 4161.5 breakout bar origin, then a retest of the 4145.97 prior high
Break of the rising Asia trendline would end the higher-low sequence
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above prior-day high, tight coil 4170–4180.
Asia session cleared the prior high at 4146 and the 4150 breakout lvl, running to a 4180.30 session high as the USD faded on Trump's Iran no-strike pledge and softer yields. Price is now coiling between the 4170 coil low and the session high late in Asia, with RSI(14) near 71 and higher lows holding along the Asia trendline.
Support: 4,169.70, 4,146.00
Resistance: 4,180.30, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4180.30 session high opens the 4200 round number, flagged in the digest as the trendline cap
Loss of the 4170 coil low exposes the 4150 breakout lvl, which sits near the 50% fib of the Asia rally
A slide back below the 4146 prior high negates the breakout read
Break of the Asia trendline would end the higher-low sequence
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
Asia breakout above prior high, tight 4170–4180 consolidation.
Asia session took gold through the prior high at 4145.97 and up to a 4180.02 session high as the USD and yields eased. It has since stalled in a 4170–4180 band above the 4169.7 swing low. RSI(14) is cooling to around 71 from hotter readings during the run-up.
Support: 4,169.72, 4,161.40, 4,145.97
Resistance: 4,180.02, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4169.7 swing low breaks the consolidation and exposes the fib 38.2 near 4161
M15 close above the 4180 session high opens the 4200 round number
Loss of the rising trendline and the 4146 prior high would unwind the Asia breakout
Michigan sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
Asia breakout above Thursday's NY high, now a tight 4170–4180 shelf.
Asia session cleared Thursday's NY prior high at 4145.97 and the 4150 handle. The 01:00 UTC break base at 4155.70 launched a run to a 4180.02 session high as softer yields and a weaker USD extended the bounce off the 4105.45 NY low. Price is now compressing on a 4170–4180 Asia shelf with RSI(14) near 71, warm but not stretched, and the rising Asia trendline sits well below.
Support: 4,170.00, 4,155.70, 4,145.97
Resistance: 4,180.02, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 4180.02 session high opens 4200 psych, the digest's trendline cap
Loss of the 4170 Asia shelf exposes the 4155.70 break base and the rising Asia trendline
Slip back under the 4145.97 prior high, below the 38.2% fib near 4151, undoes the breakout
London open is likely to test the Asian range edges
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 4105; tight 4170-4180 hold after Asia breakout.
Asia session cleared the 4145.97 prior high and the 4150 breakout level, extending the rebound from yesterday's 4105 NY low to a 4180 session high as yields and the USD eased. Price is holding a 4170-4180 band above the 4169.7 swing low, with RSI(14) near 73 and still short of an extreme reading.
Support: 4,169.72, 4,150.46, 4,145.97
Resistance: 4,180.02, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Loss of the 4169.7 swing low opens a retest of the 4150 breakout area, near the 38.2% fib of the 4105-4180 leg
Acceptance above the 4180 session high brings the 4200 round number into view
Close back below the 4146 prior high, or the rising lows trendline, would mark the Asia move a false break
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended in Asia · RSI 77 · price 4,177.62
HH/HL chain after breaking the prior NY high at 4146.
The Asia session extended the softer-yield, weaker-USD bounce. It cleared the prior high at 4146 from the NY session in the 01:00 UTC hour and printed a session high at 4180.02, with the 4170 swing low holding on the dip. RSI(14) near 77 is stretched but not extreme for this Asia rally.
Support: 4,170.05, 4,155.58, 4,145.97
Resistance: 4,180.02, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4170 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain
A break of the Asia uptrend line near the 50% fib at 4156 shifts the read to a deeper retracement
A return below the 4146 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Round number 4200 sits just above the session high and aligns with the trendline cap flagged in the macro digest
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia impulse higher, HH/HL chain, shallow pullbacks.
Late in the Asia session, gold extended the softer-yield, weaker-USD bounce. It cleared yesterday's NY prior high at 4146 and the 4150 handle, then ran from the 4131 Asia low to a 4177.84 session high, with only a brief dip to the 4170 swing low. RSI(14) near 77 shows a stretched leg heading into the 4180–4200 zone, which the digest flags as the trend cap.
Support: 4,170.05, 4,145.97, 4,131.14
Resistance: 4,177.84, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4170 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain
Retrace into 38.2–50% of the Asia leg fib (4160–4154) keeps the move corrective; the rising trendline sits near 4151
Failure to hold the 4146 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and re-exposes the 4131 Asia low
4200 psych / trendline cap: area to watch for rejection or break
Iran strike-plan headlines and Fri 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above prior high, HH/HL chain, tight pause near 4170.
Asia session broke above the prior high at 4146 as yields and the USD eased. Gold printed a 4177 session high before pausing in a tight band around 4170. RSI(14) near 73 is hot but not stretched, with the minor pivot at 4161.5 as the first higher-low reference and the asia trendline rising beneath.
Support: 4,161.50, 4,146.00
Resistance: 4,177.00, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4177 session high extends the HH chain toward 4200 psych
Loss of the 4161.5 minor pivot and the asia trendline exposes the asia leg fib 50% near 4154 and a retest of the 4146 prior high
Follow-ups to the NYT Iran strike-plan report or a yield rebound into London open could unwind the Asia move
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Uptrend, first pause after Asia leg · RSI 74 · price 4,170.27
Asia HH/HL chain, broke above prior-day range.
Asia session cleared the 4146 prior high and the 4150 Asian cap in a three-bar breakout from 4143 to a 4177 session high, in line with the digest's softer yields and weaker USD. RSI(14) is near 74 and the first pullback is stalling around 4170, well above the 4161.5 breakout base and the rising Asia trendline from 4131.
Support: 4,161.50, 4,149.70, 4,146.00
Resistance: 4,177.00, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4161.5 breakout base exposes the 38.2% fib at 4150 and the 4146 prior high
Break of the Asia trendline (HLs at 4131 and 4142.5) ends the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 4177 session high opens the 4200 round number, where the digest places trendline resistance
Iran strike-plan headlines and the UoM sentiment and inflation-expectations release (Fri 14:00 UTC) can reverse the yield-driven bounce
02:04 UTC
Uptrend, extended into Asia · RSI 79 · price 4,174.58
HH/HL chain, breakout above prior high.
Asia session cleared Thursday's 4145.97 prior high and the 4150 breakout level, running to a 4175.26 session high as yields and the USD eased. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched and the current bar is stalling at the high; the 50% of the Asia rally fib sits near 4153, just above the breakout level.
Support: 4,150.46, 4,145.97, 4,142.48
Resistance: 4,175.26, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Hold above the 4150 breakout level keeps the Asia uptrend line and HH/HL chain intact
M15 close back below 4142.48 swing low and the prior high at 4146 marks a false break
Acceptance above 4175.26 session high puts the 4200 round number in play
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC, plus Iran strike-plan headlines, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain; Asian range and prior-day high broken higher.
Mid-Asia session, gold cleared the asian high at 4150.5 and yesterday's prior high near 4146, then ran to a 4174 session high as yields and the USD eased. RSI(14) is near 77, stretched but not extreme, and the higher-low chain from the 4131 open holds along the rising trendline.
Support: 4,150.50, 4,146.00, 4,142.50
Resistance: 4,174.17, 4,180.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 4174 session high and the 4180 round number opens the 4200 area flagged as the broader cap
A drop back below the 4150.5 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break, exposing the 4146 prior high and the 4142.5 swing low
A 38.2% pullback of the 4105-4174 fib (~4148) overlaps the asian high / prior high cluster
An M15 close below the rising trendline from the 4131 Asian low breaks the higher-low chain
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) plus Iran strike-plan headlines could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating in Asia · RSI 78 · price 4,162.69
Higher lows through Asia; breakout above prior NY high.
Asia session built a higher-low chain off the 4131 Asia low. Price broke through the 4145.97 prior high and the 4150 breakout level, extending to a 4164 session high as softer yields and a weaker USD carried over. RSI(14) near 78 is stretched after a two-bar burst.
Support: 4,150.46, 4,145.97, 4,131.14
Resistance: 4,164.05, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Slip back below the 4150 breakout level would mark a false break of the prior high
Close below the Asia trendline (~4143) breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 38.2% recovery fib near 4142
Rejection at the 4164 session high vs extension toward 4200 psych
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:17 UTC
Uptrend, Asia extending highs · RSI 74 · price 4,156.95
HH/HL chain from Asian low, prior high broken.
Asia session has extended a steady HH/HL climb off the 4131.14 Asian low, breaking Thursday's 4145.97 prior high to a 4157.87 session high as softer yields and a weaker USD lift gold. RSI(14) near 74 is hot but not extreme. The 4142.48 higher low and the rising Asia trendline define the structure, with the 38.2% of the 4105–4158 rebound fib near 4138.
Support: 4,145.97, 4,142.48, 4,131.14
Resistance: 4,157.87, 4,160.00
What it said to watch
Close back below 4145.97 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 4142.48 higher low / Asia trendline ends the HH/HL sequence
Acceptance above the 4157.87 session high puts the 4160 round number in play
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Early Asia session is extending the NY-session rebound from 4105.45 as softer yields and a weaker USD lift gold. Price poked through the prior high at 4145.97 to an Asian high of 4150.46, but closes keep slipping back under it, with the 4141.6 micro low holding the pullbacks. Higher lows at 4121.21 (swing low) and 4131.14 (Asian low) define the rising trendline. RSI(14) is near 65, not stretched.
Support: 4,141.60, 4,131.14, 4,121.21
Resistance: 4,145.97, 4,150.46
What it said to watch
A close above the 4150.46 Asian high clears the round-number cap flagged in the macro digest
Loss of the 4141.6 micro low shifts focus to the trendline and the 4131.14 Asian low
A break of the 4121.21 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and puts the 61.8% fib area in play
Iran strike-plan or oil headlines during Asia could move yields and the USD; the UoM inflation expectations release (Fri 14:00 UTC) is the next scheduled risk
00:47 UTC
Uptrend, testing session high · RSI 71 · price 4,148.33
Higher lows since the 4105 NY low; Asia broke the prior high.
The early Asia session extended Thursday's NY recovery off 4105.45 as yields and the USD eased. Price cleared the 4145.97 prior high and tagged a 4150.46 session high twice without a close above, with the higher-low chain and rising lows line (near 4139) intact. RSI(14) is around 71, warm but not stretched.
Support: 4,145.97, 4,141.59, 4,131.14
Resistance: 4,150.46, 4,160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4150.46 session high opens the 4160 round number
Return below the 4145.97 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 4141.59 swing low breaks the higher-low chain; the 4131.14 session low and the 38.2% fib near 4133 sit below
Iran strike-plan headlines, and Fri 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations later in the day, could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain in Asia, rejected at session high.
Asia session has climbed from the 4131.14 session low in a higher-low chain, extending the bounce off yesterday's 4105 NY low as softer yields lift gold. Price tagged 4150.46 (session high) but slipped back under the 4145.97 prior high, with RSI(14) easing from the low 70s to ~64.
Support: 4,139.62, 4,131.14
Resistance: 4,145.97, 4,150.46
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4145.97 prior high and through the 4150.46 session high extends the uptrend
Break below the 4139.62 higher low and the rising trendline turns focus to the 4131.14 session low and the fib retracement of the NY low rally
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
00:18 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 80 · price 4,147.23
HH/HL chain through Asia, prior-day high broken.
Early Asia session has extended the late-NY recovery from the 4105 lows, with price clearing yesterday's prior high at 4145.97 and printing a 4150.46 session high at the $4,150 cap as softer yields and a fading USD lift gold. Rising support from the 4121 NY pullback is intact, and RSI(14) near 80 is stretched.
Support: 4,145.97, 4,139.62, 4,131.14
Resistance: 4,150.46
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4145.97 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 4139.62 swing low and rising support breaks the HL chain, exposing the 4131.14 asia low
Acceptance above the 4150.46 session high clears the $4,150 cap; Tuesday's $4,180 high is the next reference
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
00:04 UTC
Uptrend, extended into resistance · RSI 77 · price 4,148.33
HH/HL chain since the 22:00 UTC reopen, pressing above the prior high.
Early Asia has extended the post-reopen HH/HL chain through yesterday's 4145.97 prior high, the post-auction spike that faded, and printed 4149.28, just under the 4150 psych cap flagged in the digest, with RSI(14) near 77. The leg follows softer US yields after Thursday's NY bounce off 4105, and the rising trendline from the 4121.21 NY low is so far intact.
Support: 4,145.97, 4,135.93, 4,121.21
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,180.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4145.97 prior high marks a false break back inside yesterday's range
M15 close below the 4135.93 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and the rising trendline, exposing the 4121.21 NY low
Acceptance above 4150 psych opens the path to the 4180 tue high
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read