22:06 UTC
Downtrend transitioning, recovery off 3870 low · RSI 56 · price 4,137.51
LH/LL chain from Sep high broken higher; price back above 38.2% fib, still below 4227 lower high.
The two-month decline from the early-September 4510 high made a lower low at the 3870 oct low on Oct 30. Price then cleared the October lower highs line on Nov 4 as the USD and yields slid after the midterms. Friday's dip on the blowout NFP held above 4027, and Monday closed at 4137.51, a two-week high pressing last week's 4146–4150 weekly high. Price is back above EMA(20) and the 38.2% fib at 4115, but remains below EMA(50) and the 50% fib near 4190.
Support: 4,115.00, 3,870.26
Resistance: 4,227.28
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 4150 weekly high opens the 50% fib and October highs at 4190–4199
- US CPI Tue 10 Nov 13:30 UTC: a hot core print could drag price back to the 38.2% fib at 4115 and the 4055 breakout low
- Close back below the 4055 breakout low would turn the Nov 4 move into a false break, with the 3870 oct low back in view
- A close above the 4227 lower high would end the LH/LL sequence that has run since September