22:04 UTC
Downtrend, rebound capped below EMA(50) · RSI 46 · price 4,032.80
Lower highs from 4697 August peak; bounce off 3870 swing low rejected at 4146–4150.
Gold has been in a downtrend since the late-August 4697 peak, stepping lower through the late-September drop to 4110 and the late-October break below 4000, with price below a falling EMA(50) at 4149. The bounce from the 3870 swing low stalled three times at the 4146–4150 triple cap, which lines up with EMA(50) and the descending lower-highs line from the 4227 October high. Tuesday's hot US CPI (0.4% vs 0.3%) pushed yields above 5% and knocked price back below EMA(20) at 4069 and the 23.6% aug-oct fib near 4065, closing at 4033. RSI has turned back below 50 at 45.8 and ATR has expanded to about 8,800 pips.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,975.70, 3,870.26
Resistance: 4,069.33, 4,148.52, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 4000 round number confirms the post-CPI breakdown and exposes the 3976 prior low, then the 3870 swing low
- Daily close above the 4148–4150 triple cap and EMA(50) breaks the lower-highs line and challenges the 4227 oct high
- Reclaiming EMA(20) at 4069 and the aug-oct fib 23.6% near 4065 would neutralise the CPI rejection
- Fed's Bowman and Paulson tonight, Thursday's jobless claims and Fed slate, and Friday's PPI could materially shift this read via yields