Rising-lows consolidation below 38.2% retrace of CPI drop.
The hot US CPI print drove gold from 4079 to a 4013.74 post-CPI low in NY. Since then price has built a consolidation of rising lows and now presses the 4037.77 session high, just under the 38.2% fib at 4038.96. RSI(14) has recovered to 50.5 from sub-20 and ATR is compressing to ~606 pips in early Asia; price holds above the ema20 at 4032.78 but stays below the ema50 at 4047.15.
Support: 4,032.78, 4,024.36, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,037.77, 4,038.96, 4,047.15
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4038.96 (38.2% fib) opens the ema50 at 4047.15, near the 50% retrace
Break of the rising lows trendline and the 4024.36 range low returns focus to the 4013.74 post-CPI low
Bowman/Paulson remarks are underway; any endorsement of a 50bp hike could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 4014 double bottom, capped at 4038 range top.
The hot US CPI drop from 4079.74 put in a double bottom at the 4013.74 swing low during NY hours. Higher lows have since pressed price into the 4037.77 range top, near the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop, with ATR(14) compressing to 630 pips. Price sits just above the ema20 at 4032.49 and below the ema50 at 4047.62, with RSI(14) neutral at 50.4.
Support: 4,032.49, 4,026.70, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,037.77, 4,047.62, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson are speaking now (23:30 UTC); hike-size language could materially shift this read
A close above the 4037.77 range top opens the ema50 at 4047.62, then the 4054.07 prior high
A break below the 4026.70 higher low ends the higher-lows chain
Failure to hold the 4013.74 swing low resumes the downtrend toward the 4000 psych level
Post-CPI selloff basing in a 4024–4036 box with higher lows.
Hot US CPI extended Waller's earlier drop, sending gold from 4079.76 to a 4013.74 day low during NY hours. Since then price has held a 4024–4036 box with higher lows and sits just under a flat ema20 at 4032.18. The range high is capped below the 38.2% fib near 4039, ema50 sits overhead at 4048.12, RSI(14) has recovered to 44.2 from sub-20 and ATR is compressing to 628 pips into the early Asia session.
Support: 4,024.36, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,036.49, 4,048.12, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC (14 min) could break the box either way
M15 close above the 4036.49 range high and the 38.2% fib opens ema50 at 4048.12, then the post-CPI high at 4054.07
Loss of the 4024.36 range low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 4013.74 day low and 4000 psych
Lower highs from Asian high; tight late-NY range 4024–4036 above session low.
Waller's 50bp talk in London and the hot CPI print in NY drove a $133 slide from the 4146.65 Asian high to a 4013.74 session low. Price has since based in a 4024–4036 range after London-NY hours, with RSI(14) recovered from sub-20 to 46.2 and ATR compressing to 641.9 pips. Price sits on the ema20 at 4032.29 but under the ema50 at 4048.81, which lines up with the 38.2–50% fib of the post-CPI leg and sits just below the 4054 cpi bounce high.
Support: 4,032.29, 4,024.36, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,036.49, 4,048.81, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the late-NY range either way
M15 close above the 4036.49 range high opens the 38.2% fib near 4039 and the ema50 at 4048.81
A push through the 4054.07 cpi bounce high would undo the post-CPI lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4024.36 range low exposes the 4013.74 session low, then the 4000 handle
Tight late-NY range 4024–4036.5 above the 4013.7 NY low, lower highs intact.
London broke below the 4108–4147 Asian range after Waller. The hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC then took gold from 4079.7 to a 4013.7 NY low, with the post-CPI bounce high at 4054.1 capping the recovery. Late NY has settled into a 4024–4036.5 range, with price at ema20 (4032.3) and below ema50 (4048.8); RSI(14) has recovered to 46 from sub-20 and ATR(14) has compressed from ~1016 to ~642 pips.
Support: 4,024.36, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,036.49, 4,048.81, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC (Asia open) could break the range either way
M15 close above the 4036.5 range top opens ema50 at 4048.8, near the 50% fib of the CPI drop
Failure to hold the 4024.4 range low exposes the 4013.7 ny low and the 4000 psych handle
Reclaim of the 4054.1 bounce high (61.8% fib) would negate the lower-high sequence
Tight post-low range 4014–4036 with a higher-low chain, below the CPI-leg 38.2%.
Waller's London-session remarks and then the hot CPI print knocked gold from the 4146 Asian high to a 4013.74 day low. Late NY has since built a tight base, with higher lows from 4014.94 to 4026.70 along a rising trendline and a cap at the 4036.49 rebound high. Price is on the ema20, still below the ema50 at 4048.81 and the 38.2% of the CPI leg; RSI(14) is back at 46 from sub-20 and ATR has compressed to 642 pips.
Support: 4,026.70, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,036.49, 4,048.81, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4036.49 rebound high opens the ema50 at 4048.81 and the 4054.07 lower high, near the 61.8% of the CPI leg
A break of the 4026.70 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 4013.74 day low, then 4000 psych
Fed's Bowman/Paulson at 23:30 GMT, in about 1h, could materially shift this read if 50bp hike talk surfaces
22:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after the CPI flush · RSI 46 · price 4,032.80
Base near 4014, tight 4024–4036 range after NY close.
Hot US CPI drove a flush from 4079.74 to a 4013.74 session low during NY hours. Since then gold has based above that low and compressed into a 4024–4036 range, capped below the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop near 4039. RSI(14) has recovered from sub-20 to 46.2, price is sitting on the ema20 and below the ema50 at 4048.8, and ATR(14) has contracted to 642 pips.
Support: 4,024.36, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,036.49, 4,048.81, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4036.5 range high and 38.2% fib opens the ema50 at 4048.8 and the 4054 lower high
Failure to hold the 4024.4 range low and the rising lows line exposes the 4013.7 session low, then 4000 psych
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 GMT (73 min) could break the compression either side
22:03 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in post-NY range · RSI 46 · price 4,032.80
Tight 4024–4036 range with higher lows above the 4013.74 session low.
Gold sold off from 4113 on Waller during London, then dropped again on the hot US CPI in the NY session to a 4013.74 swing low. RSI(14) has recovered from sub-20 to 46.2. Since the NY close, price has been ranging 4024–4036 on higher lows, just above the ema20 and capped below the 38.2% post-CPI fib near 4039, with ATR compressing to 642 pips.
Support: 4,024.36, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,036.49, 4,048.81, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 GMT (~87 min) could break the range in either direction
M15 close above the 4036.49 range top opens the ema50 at 4048.81, then the 4054.07 lower high
Break of the higher-lows line and the 4024.36 range low exposes the 4013.74 swing low, then the 4000 psych level
Lower highs, tight 4024–4036 range off session low.
Hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC extended the London slide into a 4013.74 session low, and RSI(14) has since recovered from sub-20 to 42.8. Late in the NY session price is coiling in a 4024–4036 range under the ema20 at 4032.2, the CPI drop fib 38.2% near 4039 and a lower highs line from 4054, while ATR has compressed to 652 pips.
Support: 4,024.36, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,032.23, 4,036.49, 4,049.46
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the 4024–4036 range
An M15 close above the 4036.5 range top, the lower highs line and the 4039 fib 38.2% opens the ema50 at 4049.5
Loss of the 4024 range low exposes the 4013.7 session low, then psych 4000
21:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late NY · RSI 40 · price 4,027.34
Lower highs from Asia; post-CPI base 4013.74–4036.49, rising lows now slipping.
Hot US CPI extended the London slide from the Asian range (4108–4141) to a session low at 4013.74, with RSI(14) pinned below 20 into the low. The bounce capped at 4036.49, just under the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg, and price now sits below the ema20 at 4032.42 as rising support from the 4014.94 base gives way. ATR(14) is compressing toward 667 pips.
Support: 4,024.36, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,032.42, 4,036.49, 4,050.24
What it said to watch
Close back above the 4036.49 bounce high and 38.2% fib opens the ema50 at 4050.24
Loss of the 4024.36 swing low exposes the 4013.74 session low
Break of the session low puts the 4000 psych handle in play
Fed's Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight 4024–4036 range above the 4013.74 swing low, lower highs from the CPI high.
Gold extended its slide from the 4146 Asian-range top after Waller and then hot US CPI (0.4% vs 0.3%), bottoming at the 4013.74 swing low as RSI(14) sat below 20. RSI has since recovered to 42 and ATR is compressing toward 687 pips. Price is coiling between 4024 and 4036 in late NY, holding just under the ema20 at 4032.79 and the 38.2% fib near 4039, with a higher-low trendline underneath.
Support: 4,024.36, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,032.79, 4,036.49, 4,051.11
What it said to watch
A close above the 4036.49 session high and the 38.2% fib (~4039) opens the ema50 at 4051
A break of the higher-low trendline and the 4024.36 range low exposes the 4013.74 swing low, then 4000 psych
Fed's Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI base, tight 4024–4036 range below falling EMAs.
Gold fell from the 4113 area in London after Waller, and the hot US CPI print extended the drop to a 4013.74 session low. Price has since settled into a 4024–4036 range late in NY hours, just under a flattening ema20 at 4033.01 and well below ema50 at 4051.94. RSI(14) has recovered to 42.5 from sub-20, and ATR has compressed to 727.5 pips, with the 4036.49 late high capping the bounce below the 38.2% CPI leg fib near 4039.
Support: 4,024.36, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,033.01, 4,036.49, 4,040.11
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4036.49 late high and the 4040.11 cpi bar low (38.2% fib) breaks the post-CPI range to the upside
Failure to hold the 4024.36 range low reopens the 4013.74 session low and the 4000 psych level
Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could shift yields and this read during the Asia session
Hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC extended the Waller-led slide, taking gold to a 4013.74 session low, where three probes near 4014 held. Late NY trade has built a shallow rising-lows bounce to 4036.49. It is stalling just under the ema20 and the 38.2% post-CPI fib near 4039, while RSI(14) has recovered to 42.7 from sub-20 oversold readings.
Support: 4,024.36, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,036.49, 4,052.79
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4036.49 bounce high and the 38.2% post-CPI fib near 4039 opens the ema50 at 4052.79
Break of the 4024.36 swing low ends the rising-lows bounce and puts the 4013.74 session low back in play
Failure to hold 4013.74 exposes the 4000 psych level
Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC could reprice yields and materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia into a 4013.74 low, then a shallow higher-low chain.
Waller's 09:00 UTC remarks broke the Asian range low near 4108, and the hot CPI at 13:30 UTC extended the slide to a 4013.74 session low. Since then a higher-low chain has lifted price back above the ema20 to 4035. That puts it near the 50% retrace of the 4054–4013.74 leg, with the swing high and ema50 near 4054 still overhead. RSI(14) has recovered from 18.6 to 46.9 and ATR is compressing to about 736 pips.
Support: 4,024.36, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,040.53, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
Bowman is speaking now (20:30 UTC), with Bowman and Paulson again at 23:30 UTC; Fed-speak could materially shift this read
Acceptance above the 4040.53 breakdown pivot opens the swing high and ema50 cluster near 4054
Failure to hold the 4024.36 higher low and the HL trendline returns focus to the 4013.74 session low, with 4000 psych below
Tight late-NY range 4024–4033 above the 4013.74 session low, small higher low.
The hot US CPI beat extended the London selloff that began around Waller's remarks, taking gold through the 4040 cpi low to a 4013.74 session low. Price has since based in a 4024–4033 range late in the NY session, holding a higher-low line. RSI(14) has recovered from sub-20 to 42.8 and ATR(14) has compressed to 751.7 pips, with price capped just below a flattening ema20 at 4033.2 and the ema50 at 4054.42 still falling.
Support: 4,024.36, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,033.20, 4,040.11, 4,054.42
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the ema20 at 4033.2 and the range top opens the 4040 cpi low, near the 38.2% cpi drop fib at about 4039
A break of the higher-low line and the 4024 range low exposes the 4013.74 session low and the 4000 psych level
A recovery toward the falling ema50 at 4054.42 would retrace the 50% cpi drop fib at about 4047
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (14 min), then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could break the late-NY range
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late NY · RSI 39 · price 4,027.77
Lower highs from the CPI drop; tight base above 4013.74 session low.
Gold broke the Asian range low after Waller in London, then the hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC drove a further leg to a 4013.74 session low. Since then late NY has built a narrow 4014–4033 base, capped by the ema20 and the lower highs trendline. RSI(14) has recovered to 39 from a sub-20 oversold reading, and ATR is compressing from 1,096 to 759 pips.
Support: 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,033.30, 4,055.32
What it said to watch
Bowman speaks at 20:30 UTC, 28 minutes out, and could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the ema20 at 4033.3 and the lower highs trendline would end the post-CPI sequence and open the ema50 at 4055.32, near the 0.618 of the CPI leg
Failure to hold the 4013.74 session low exposes the 4000 psych level
Lower highs from 4054; coiling 4024–4033 under ema20.
Waller's hawkish remarks in London started the slide, and the hot US CPI beat at 13:30 UTC extended it to a 4013.74 session low. Late in the NY session price based at 4014–4025, then bounced to 4033.28, about a 50% fib of the leg down from the 4054.07 swing high, and stalled at the ema20 (4033.71). RSI(14) has recovered from sub-20 to 38.9, and ATR is compressing to 789 pips as price coils under the lower highs.
Support: 4,024.36, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,033.71, 4,040.53, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the ema20 at 4033.71 and the 4040.53 lower high would break the lower-high sequence and expose the 4054.07 swing high
Failure to hold the 4024.36 pullback low puts the 4013.74 session low back in play; a break below it extends the downtrend
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~44 min) could materially shift this read, especially any talk of a 50bp December hike
Lower highs below ema20; floor near 4014 session low.
Waller during London and the hot US CPI beat (0.4% vs 0.3% m/m) broke the Asian range and drove gold from the 4148 high to a 4013.74 session low. RSI(14) has recovered from below 20 to 39.6, and ATR is easing to 803 pips. Late in the NY session, price is basing above 4014 but capped by the 4033 bounce high, just under the ema20 at 4034.17.
Support: 4,026.36, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,034.17, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the ema20 at 4034.17 and the 4033 bounce high would break the lower-highs line and open the CPI leg fib 50% near 4047, then the 4054.07 lower high.
A loss of the 4026.36 pullback low puts the 4013.74 session low back in focus. A break of that low extends the downtrend.
Fed's Bowman speaks in about 1h (20:30 UTC), then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC. Talk of a 50bp hike could materially shift this read.
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, late-NY bounce off day low · RSI 39 · price 4,029.66
Lower highs/lower lows from Asia high; small base at 4014–4024 now testing ema20.
The hot US CPI beat at 13:30 UTC extended the London slide from the 4,068–4,080 range to a 4,013.74 day low. Late NY has based above that low and RSI(14) has recovered to 39 from sub-20 readings, a mild bullish divergence, but the bounce is stalling near the post-CPI leg's 38.2% retracement, just under the ema20 at 4,034.58, with the lower-highs line intact.
Support: 4,024.63, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,034.58, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~74 min) could materially shift this read; Paulson and Bowman follow at 23:30 UTC
An M15 close above the ema20 at 4034.58 and the lower-highs line breaks the down-sequence and opens the 4054.07 lower high
A slip back below the 4024.63 base top puts the 4013.74 day low back in play; a break there resumes the lower-low chain
ATR(14) of ~842 pips ($8.4) is compressing from 1,090+, so post-CPI ranges are narrowing
Lower highs from 4054.07; base above 4013.74 session low.
Hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC extended the London slide that began on Waller's comments. NY printed a session low at 4013.74, and the late-NY bounce stalled at 4033.10, just under the ema20 at 4035.08. RSI(14) has lifted to 36.1 from sub-20, with a bullish divergence at the session low, but the lower-high sequence from 4054.07 is intact.
Support: 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,033.10, 4,035.08, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4033.10 bounce high and ema20 opens a retrace toward the 4054.07 lower high
Failure to hold the 4013.74 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4000 round number
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
ATR(14) near 870 pips ($8.70) is compressing from the post-CPI peak
Post-CPI lower highs; late-NY range break above 4014–4025 base.
Waller's hawkish remarks and the hot US CPI beat took gold from the Asian range low near 4108 to a 4013.74 session low. Late in the NY session price broke out of the 4014–4025 base, lifting RSI(14) to 40 from below 20, and now sits just under the ema20 at 4035.91 with the 38.2% fib of the post-CPI drop near 4039.
Support: 4,024.63, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,035.91, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4024.63 base top negates the range break and reopens the 4013.74 session low
Acceptance above the ema20 and the 38.2% fib near 4039 exposes the 4054 lower high at the 61.8% fib
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~104 min) could materially shift this read
18:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalling while oversold · RSI 27 · price 4,023.41
Post-CPI lower highs and lower lows, now a tight late-NY base at 4014–4025.
The hot US CPI print (0.4% m/m vs 0.3%) extended the London slide and took gold to a 4013.74 session low during NY hours. Price has since compressed in a 4014–4025 range below the ema20 at 4036.23. RSI(14) is oversold at 26.6 and made a higher low against the lower price low, a bullish divergence, while ATR(14) has eased to 877 pips.
Support: 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,024.63, 4,036.23, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4024.63 range top and the ema20 at 4036.23 would bring the 38.2% post-CPI fib near 4039 into play
A break of the 4013.74 session low voids the bullish divergence and exposes the 4000 round number
A recovery above the 4054.07 swing high would end the post-CPI lower-high sequence
Bowman speaks at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC; any 50bp December talk could shift this read
Lower-high chain since CPI, tight base at session low.
The hot US CPI beat at 13:30 UTC erased Monday's rally. NY hours then built lower highs at 4061 and 4054 into a 4013.74 session low, and price is now coiling in a 4014–4025 band beneath the ema20. RSI(14) at 18.6 is deeply oversold and holds above its 15.2 trough despite the lower price low, a bullish divergence inside the downtrend.
Support: 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,024.63, 4,037.64, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4013.74 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4000 round number
Close above the 4024.6 range top puts the ema20 at 4037.6, near the 38.2% CPI fib, in play
Only a break above the 4054 lower high and the lower-highs trendline challenges the post-CPI downtrend
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
18:03 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in late NY · RSI 19 · price 4,015.76
Lower highs and lower lows since London; tight 4014–4025 range above the swing low.
Waller's 09:00 UTC remarks broke gold below the 4108 Asian low, and the hot US CPI print extended the leg to a 4013.74 swing low. Late NY is now a 4014–4025 range below the ema20 (4039.69), with RSI(14) at 18.8 and oversold all afternoon. ATR(14) has eased to 931 pips from 1,097, and lower highs off the post-CPI hi at 4054 still cap rebounds.
Support: 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,024.63, 4,039.69, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4013.74 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4000 round number
M15 close above the 4024.63 range top and the lower highs trendline opens a test of ema20 near 4039, close to the 38.2% of the CPI leg
Reclaim of the post-CPI hi at 4054.07 breaks the lower-high sequence
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (Paulson and Bowman again at 23:30) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since CPI; tight base above 4013.74 after London close.
Gold broke below the Asian range near 4108 in the London session on Waller's speech, and the hot US CPI beat at 13:30 UTC extended the slide. Lower highs have formed under a falling trendline from the 4079.74 CPI spike, with a session low at 4013.74. After London close price is compressing in a 4014–4025 range below the ema20 (4041.92). RSI(14) sits at 19.5, holding above its 15.2 low despite the lower price low.
Support: 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,024.63, 4,041.92, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4013.74 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4000 round number
Close above the 4024.6 range top and the falling trendline ends the compression; the ema20 at 4041.92 and the 38.2% post-CPI fib near 4039 sit just above
Reclaim of the 4054.07 lower high would break the post-CPI downtrend sequence
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since CPI; Asian range broken lower.
London broke the Asian range lower on Waller, and the hot US CPI beat extended the slide. A chain of lower highs from the CPI drop fib top at 4079.74 has carried gold to a 4013.74 session low after London close. RSI(14) at 19.7 is deeply oversold but held above its earlier 15.2 low at the new price low, a mild bullish divergence, with price still under the ema20 at 4044.2.
Support: 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,033.80, 4,044.20, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
Break of the 4013.74 session low exposes the 4000 round number
Reclaim of the 4033.8 cpi low shelf and the ema20 at 4044.2 would ease the downtrend read
Close above the 4054.07 lower high breaks the post-CPI lower highs sequence and lifts price back through the 61.8% of the CPI drop fib
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (22:30 broker), then Paulson/Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the CPI spike; stalling near the session low.
Gold broke below the Asian range (4108–4147) in London, then hot US CPI took it from 4079.74 to a 4013.74 session low after London close. Price sits below the ema20 (4046.65) and ema50 (4071.57), and every bounce since CPI has capped at a lower high. RSI(14) at 20 is oversold, and its higher low against the lower price low is a mild bullish divergence.
Support: 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,032.88, 4,046.65, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4013.74 session low exposes the 4000 psych level
M15 close above the 4032.88 prior low and the lower-high line weakens the downtrend read
The CPI-leg fib 50% (~4046.7) lines up with the ema20; the 4054.07 swing high caps above
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~3h); talk of hikes beyond December could extend the leg
Lower highs and lower lows since the 13:30 UTC CPI bar; fresh day low printed late NY session.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke the London grind and extended the selloff. Price has stepped through the 4033–4034 broken base to a day low at 4013.74, with lower highs at 4054.07 and 4040.53 capping it under a falling ema20 at 4049.26. RSI(14) at 20.2 is oversold but has made a higher low against the 14:45 UTC reading of 15.2, a bullish divergence. ATR has expanded to ~1064 pips ($10.6) after the post-CPI leg.
Support: 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,034.16, 4,049.26, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4034 broken base and the lower-highs trendline would break the post-CPI sequence
Failure to hold the 4013.74 day low exposes the 4000 round number
Reclaim of ema20 at 4049.26 and the 4054.07 lower high would mark a 50%+ retrace of the post-CPI leg
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 19 · price 4,021.24
Lower highs and lower lows through NY after the CPI spike, new session low at 4018.90.
Gold broke below the Asian range low near 4108 during London on Waller's hawkish remarks, and the hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC pushed the slide lower. Since then NY has printed a chain of lower highs, the latest at 4054.07 just above the ema20 (4052.10), and a fresh session low at 4018.90 after London close. RSI(14) at 19.3 is deeply oversold but held above its 15.2 trough at the 4032.88 post-cpi low, a mild bullish divergence, with price below both EMAs and ATR near $10.7 per bar.
Support: 4,018.90, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,032.88, 4,052.10, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4032.88 post-cpi low would stall the lower-low sequence and confirm the RSI divergence
Failure to hold the 4018.90 session low exposes the 4000 psych level
Reclaim of the ema20 / 4054.07 lower high would break the post-CPI downtrend line
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
16:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 20 · price 4,025.41
Lower highs and lower lows since London; fresh NY session low under the CPI low.
Waller's 09:00 UTC remarks broke gold below the Asian range low near 4108. The hot US CPI print then extended the drop through the london low at 4068.77, and the NY session has just printed a fresh session low at 4022.98 beneath the cpi low at 4033.78, with lower highs capping each bounce under the ema20 at 4055.31. RSI(14) at 19.8 is oversold but sits above its 15.2 reading at the prior low, a tentative bullish divergence.
Support: 4,022.98, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,033.78, 4,055.31, 4,068.77
What it said to watch
Close back above the cpi low at 4033.78 would mark the latest break as a false break
Failure to hold the 4022.98 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4000 psych level
A break of the lower highs line and the ema20 near 4055 would end the post-CPI downtrend read; the 50% of the cpi drop fib sits at about 4051
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson/Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs below ema20; session low retested from above.
The hot US CPI print (0.4% headline, 0.3% core) broke the pre-release cpi base at 4068–4080 and extended the London slide that began around Waller's remarks. The NY session low at 4032.88 was retested at 4034.33 after the bounce stalled at the 4054.07 lower high, near the 50% of the CPI leg fib. Price sits below ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) oversold at 24.6 and ATR(14) expanded to ~1044 pips.
Support: 4,032.88, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,054.07, 4,058.66, 4,068.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4054.07 lower high and ema20 at 4058.66 breaks the lower-high trendline sequence
Failure to hold the 4032.88 session low extends the downtrend toward the 4000 psych level
A move back into the 4068.77 cpi base would neutralise the post-CPI breakdown
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; post-CPI lower highs over a flat 4033–4034 base.
Waller's 09:00 UTC remarks broke the Asian range low near 4108 in London. The hot CPI beat then extended the slide to a 4032.88 session low, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) oversold at 27.1. NY-hours rebounds have printed lower highs, and the 4054.07 rebound high stalled under the 50% retrace of the CPI drop, while the session low zone near 4033–4034 has held on three tests and price trades just above the 4040 round number.
Support: 4,040.00, 4,032.88
Resistance: 4,054.07, 4,060.96, 4,068.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4032.88 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 4054.07 rebound high and the lower-highs trendline puts ema20 at 4060.96 and the pre-cpi low at 4068.77 in play
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman/Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
ATR(14) near 1053 pips after the CPI expansion; swings of roughly $10 per bar remain the norm
Lower highs and lower lows since London; post-CPI low then a shallow bounce.
Gold broke below the Asian range during London on Waller's remarks, then hot US CPI took out the pre-CPI base and printed a session low at 4032.88 in the first hour of NY. The bounce from the session low stalled at 4054.07, near the 50% of the CPI drop fib. Price is still under both EMAs, RSI(14) is oversold at 28.8, and ATR has expanded to about $10.4 per bar.
Support: 4,040.11, 4,032.88
Resistance: 4,054.07, 4,062.92, 4,068.77
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4054.07 bounce high and the ema20 at 4062.92 would neutralise the post-CPI leg; the pre-cpi base near 4068.77 sits just above
Failure to hold the 4040.11 cpi low exposes the 4032.88 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
London close shortly may thin the range ahead of NY afternoon
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday's NY peak; London range at 4068–4080 broken on CPI.
Hot US CPI (0.4% vs 0.3% f/c) broke the 4068–4080 London range and extended to a 4032.88 session low. RSI(14) bottomed at 15.2 there and has recovered to 30.3, while ATR(14) has expanded to 1058 pips. The early-NY bounce is stalling near 4050, under the 4061 lower high at the 61.8% of the CPI drop, with price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,046.13, 4,032.88
Resistance: 4,061.31, 4,064.73, 4,079.76
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4061 lower high and the ema20 at 4064.73 would turn the bounce into a deeper retracement of the CPI drop toward the 4079.76 pre-CPI high
Failure to hold the 4046.13 higher low and then the 4032.88 session low resumes the downtrend sequence
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
14:47 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive after CPI · RSI 17 · price 4,039.02
Lower highs and lower lows; pre-CPI range broken lower.
Gold extended its London slide after Waller's 50bp talk. The hot CPI beat at 13:30 UTC broke the 4068–4080 pre-CPI range and printed a session low at 4033.78 in the first hour of NY. RSI(14) at 17 is deeply oversold and ATR has jumped to 1060 pips, while post-CPI bounces are capped by a lower high at 4057.83 and the bounce high at 4063.38, both under the ema20 at 4071.05.
Support: 4,033.78, 4,020.00
Resistance: 4,057.83, 4,063.38, 4,071.05
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4033.78 session low exposes next support at 4020
Recovery through the 4063.38 bounce high and the ema20 at 4071.05 would put price back inside the broken range; 38.2% of the decline fib sits near 4067
A move back above the lower highs trendline from 4121.48 would invalidate the lower-high chain
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC on 50bp vs 25bp could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia; post-CPI box 4048.8–4063 under prior London low.
The hot US CPI beat (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke London's 4068–4080 consolidation and flushed price to a cpi low of 4040.11. That extends the Waller-led slide from the Asian range. Early in the NY session, price is boxed between a range floor at 4048.8 and a range top near 4063, capped around the 23.6% fib, with the London low at 4068.77 and the ema20 at 4073.82 overhead. RSI(14) is 19.8, deep oversold, and ATR has expanded from 636 to 956.5 pips since the print.
Support: 4,048.79, 4,040.11
Resistance: 4,063.38, 4,068.77, 4,073.82
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4063.4 range top and the 23.6% fib opens a retest of the london low at 4068.77 and the ema20 at 4073.82
Failure at the 4048.8 range floor brings the 4040.11 cpi low back into play; the digest flags 4020 below that
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 GMT (~6h) on 50bp vs 25bp could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4098; post-CPI band 4049–4063 below broken 4068 base.
Waller's 50bp talk at 09:00 GMT broke the Asian range low near 4108. The hot CPI beat (0.4% vs 0.3% m/m) then knocked gold through the 4068 base low to a 4040.11 CPI low, under a line of lower highs. In the first hour of NY, price sits near 4053 in a band between the 4049.33 post-CPI low and the 4063.38 bounce high, below the ema20 at 4076.09, with RSI(14) at 18.8 and ATR expanded to 946 pips.
Support: 4,049.33, 4,040.11
Resistance: 4,063.38, 4,068.06, 4,076.09
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4049.33 post-CPI low puts the 4040.11 CPI low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 4063.38 bounce high and 4068 base low shifts the read to post-CPI consolidation, with the ema20 at 4076.09 above
Close above the lower highs line (~4079) invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 GMT could materially shift this read on 50bp vs 25bp pricing
Lower highs since Asia; London base broken on CPI.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2% f/c) broke the 4068–4080 London base and flushed to a 4040.11 cpi low. That extended the decline from 4148.52 and the lower-highs chain running since Asia, with RSI(14) at 19 and ATR expanded to ~940 pips. Early-NY bounce from the 4049.33 post-cpi low is running into 4061, with price below the ema20 at 4078.67 and the ema50 at 4095.13; the old london low at 4068.77 is the first cap.
Support: 4,049.33, 4,040.11
Resistance: 4,068.77, 4,078.67, 4,095.13
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the london low at 4068.77 puts the ema20 at 4078.67 and the CPI bar high in play
Failure to hold the post-cpi low at 4049.33 exposes the 4040.11 cpi low; a close below extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the ema50 at 4095.13 would break the lower-highs trendline read
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could shift the post-CPI read
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating after CPI · RSI 21 · price 4,056.45
Lower highs and lower lows; London range broken lower on CPI.
Hot US CPI (core MoM 0.3% vs 0.2% forecast, headline 0.4% vs 0.3%) knocked gold out of the 4068–4080 London range to a 4040.11 cpi low in the first minutes of NY. That extends the sell-off from Monday's 4148 high, which accelerated on Waller's 50bp talk. RSI(14) is oversold at 20.7, ATR(14) has jumped to 904 pips, and price sits well below the ema20 (4081.47) and ema50 (4096.89).
Support: 4,040.11
Resistance: 4,068.06, 4,081.47, 4,096.89
What it said to watch
A break below the 4040.11 cpi low extends the lower-low sequence of the sell-off
A recovery back above the 4068.06 pre-cpi low would mark the CPI spike as a false break of the London range
The ema20 at 4081.47 caps the lower-high chain; a close above it neutralises the intraday downtrend
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could shift the read as 50bp December hike pricing is digested
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia; pre-CPI range broken lower.
Gold broke below the Asian range low on the Waller-led London drop, then printed lower highs into a 4068–4080 pre-CPI range. The still-forming CPI release bar at the NY open broke the range floor and spiked to the 4040.18 cpi low before recovering to 4053, near the 4050 round number. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) oversold at 28.9; the ~$40 release-bar range dwarfs the 668-pip ATR(14).
Support: 4,050.00, 4,040.18
Resistance: 4,068.06, 4,079.74, 4,084.09
What it said to watch
The CPI actual is not yet in the data; the print's detail could extend or reverse this release-bar move
An M15 close back above the 4068 range floor would turn the CPI move into a false break
A break below the 4040.18 cpi low extends the lower-low chain
The lower-highs trendline near the 4079.74 range top and ema20 at 4084.09 is the cap on any rebound
4050 round number is the first test on the release bar's close
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 GMT could shift the post-CPI read
Lower highs from London; tight box above session low into CPI.
Gold broke below the Asian range near 4108 at Waller's 09:00 GMT speech in London hours and fell to a 4068.77 session low. Since 11:00 GMT it has held a 4068.77–4079.76 box below a falling ema20 at 4085.34. RSI(14) has lifted from 22 to 32.3 and ATR has eased to 643.8 pips as the market waits on US CPI.
Support: 4,068.77, 4,060.00
Resistance: 4,079.76, 4,085.34, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 GMT, 14 minutes out, could materially shift this read; a hot core print versus a soft print is the swing factor
An M15 close below the 4068.77 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4060 round number
A close above the 4079.76 range top brings the ema20 at 4085.34 and the 38.2% fib of the London drop near 4089 into play
Only a reclaim of the 4100 pivot would break the lower-high structure from the London drop
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing after Waller-led drop · RSI 34 · price 4,075.66
Lower highs and lows from 4128; tight 4069–4080 base above session low.
Waller's hawkish 50bp talk at 09:00 GMT broke the Asian range low near 4108 and drove gold to a 4068.77 session low. Since then price has held a tight 4069–4080 base into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) back to 34 from sub-25 and ATR(14) easing to 636 pips. Price sits below a falling ema20 (4086) and ema50 (4100.55).
Support: 4,068.77, 4,060.00
Resistance: 4,079.66, 4,086.26, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 GMT, 28 min away, could materially shift this read. Core ≥0.3% vs the 0.2% forecast is the hot threshold.
A break below the 4068.77 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4060 round number.
An M15 close above the 4079.66 range top brings the ema20 at 4086 and the 38.2% fib near 4091 into play.
The 4100 round number, sitting with the ema50, caps any rebound unless it is reclaimed.
Lower highs from 4128; tight base 4069–4079 below both EMAs.
Waller's mid-London remarks triggered a flush through the Asian range low near 4108, extending to a 4068.77 session low as Monday's 4150 rally unwound. Price has since compressed in a 4069–4079 base under a falling ema20 (4087.02), with RSI(14) lifting off 22 to 32.4 and ATR easing to ~651 pips ($6.5).
Support: 4,068.77, 4,060.00
Resistance: 4,079.00, 4,087.02, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~44 min), with ADP 4-week average at 13:15, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 4068.77 session low resumes the lower-low sequence and exposes the 4060 round number
Close above the 4079 base top and ema20 at 4087.02 shifts the read to a corrective bounce toward the 38.2% fib of the london selloff near 4091
Reclaim of 4100 psych would put price back above ema50 (4101.42) and neutralise the London breakdown
12:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into CPI · RSI 29 · price 4,075.16
Lower highs since Asia; tight base at 4069–4079 after Waller-driven breakdown.
Waller's 50bp warning at 09:00 UTC sent gold through the Asian range low near 4108 and the 4100 pivot, extending to a 4068.77 session low late in London. Since then price has compressed in a 4068.77–4078.95 range below a falling ema20 (4087.99). RSI(14) sits oversold at 28.7 and ATR has eased from 789 to 659 pips ahead of CPI.
Support: 4,068.77, 4,060.00
Resistance: 4,078.95, 4,087.99, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) and ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Break of the 4068.77 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4060 round number
M15 close above the 4078.95 range top, then the ema20 at 4087.99, puts the 50% of the waller selloff fib near 4095 in play
Reclaim of the 4100 pivot would invalidate the London downtrend read
Lower highs since Asia; overnight range broken lower, tight 4069–4079 base.
Waller's remarks at 09:00 UTC broke the 4108–4128 overnight range below the asian low, and London extended the drop to a 4068.77 session low. Price is now basing at 4069–4079 under both EMAs, with a lower-highs line capping. RSI(14) has lifted to 30.3 after holding 22–24 through the slide, and ATR(14) has compressed to 681 pips going into US CPI.
Support: 4,068.77
Resistance: 4,089.29, 4,100.00, 4,108.13
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~74 min), with ADP at 13:15, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 4068.77 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
An M15 close above the ema20 at 4089.29 and the lower-highs line opens the 4100 round number and the 4108 asian low
Fib 38.2–50% of the Waller leg (~4089–4095) overlaps ema20 resistance
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at lows · RSI 24 · price 4,074.53
London leg broke the Asian low; tight base forming under both EMAs.
Waller's 09:00 GMT remarks broke gold below the 4108 Asian low. The drop ran to a 4068.77 session low and price now sits in a tight 4069–4079 band below the ema20 (4090.49) and ema50, with RSI(14) at 24, oversold. ATR is about 692 pips ($6.9) heading into CPI, and the 38.2% fib of the London drop at ~4089 lines up with the ema20.
Support: 4,068.77, 4,060.00
Resistance: 4,078.66, 4,090.49, 4,108.13
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 GMT (ADP 13:15) in under 90 minutes could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 4068.77 session low resumes the downtrend toward the 4060 round number
Close above the 4078.66 range top opens a retrace toward the ema20 / 38.2% fib of the London drop near 4089-4090
Reclaiming the 4108 Asian low would negate the London breakdown
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian low broke; compressing near 4070.
London broke the 4108 Asian low on Waller's speech, which kept a 50bp December hike in play, and price has stepped down in lower highs to a 4068.77 session low. Late London has compressed into a 4070–4076 band under the lower-highs line. RSI(14) has held near 22–28 for 11 bars and ATR is easing to ~707 pips, with price below both EMAs ahead of US CPI.
Support: 4,068.77, 4,060.00
Resistance: 4,088.79, 4,092.21, 4,108.13
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (ADP 13:15) could materially shift this read
A close above the 4088.79 swing high and the ema20 at 4092.21 breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 4068.77 session low extends the downtrend toward the 4060 round number
A sustained close above the lower-highs line would mark the first stall in the London leg
A return above the 4108 asian low would negate the range break
11:32 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 23 · price 4,070.98
Lower highs, lower lows since the 09:00 GMT break of the Asian range low.
Waller's 50bp December hike comments at 09:00 GMT broke the Asian low at 4107.92. Gold has since stepped down in a lower-high chain to a 4068.77 session low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) oversold at 22.6 and ATR near 720 pips. London drop bounces have stalled under each lower high, the latest at 4078.23.
Support: 4,068.77, 4,060.00
Resistance: 4,078.23, 4,093.88, 4,107.92
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 GMT (~2h), with ADP 4-week average at 13:15, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 4068.77 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4060 round number
Close above the 4078.23 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline, with ema20 at 4093.88 next overhead
Reclaim of the Asian low at 4107.92 would negate the range break
11:17 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 24 · price 4,074.67
Lower highs and lower lows since the London break of the Asian range low.
Waller's 50bp-hike remarks early in the London session knocked gold through the Asian low at 4107.92. Price has since stepped down in lower highs to a 4068.77 session low, with RSI(14) at 24 (oversold) and price below both EMAs. The 4088 prior shelf and the ema20 at 4096.09 sit as the first caps overhead, and ATR(14) runs about $7.40 per bar.
Support: 4,068.77, 4,060.00
Resistance: 4,088.30, 4,096.09, 4,107.92
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h) and the ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 4068.77 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4060 round number
M15 close back above the 4088 prior shelf breaks the lower-high sequence
A reclaim of the 61.8% fib near 4101 and the 4107.92 Asian low would negate the range-break read
11:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into CPI · RSI 23 · price 4,073.09
Lower highs below the broken Asian low, pressing the session low.
London broke the Asian low at 4107.92 on the 09:00 UTC bar, which coincided with Waller's slot, and a lower-highs chain has since carried gold to a 4072.14 session low as traders square up before CPI. RSI(14) at 22.7 is oversold and ATR has eased to 741.5 pips from 780. Price trades under the ema20 at 4098.23 and the ema50, pressing the 4065/75 OCBC support zone.
Support: 4,072.14, 4,065.00
Resistance: 4,088.56, 4,098.23, 4,107.92
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4088.56 bounce high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 38.2% fib of the drop near 4091
Failure to hold the 4072.14 session low and 4065 ocbc support exposes the 4020–4060 post-NFP lows
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2.5h), preceded by ADP at 13:15, could materially shift this read
Recovery to the ema20 at 4098.23, near the 50% fib, then the 4107.92 Asian low, would mark a return to the overnight range
10:47 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 24 · price 4,076.22
Asian range broken lower, lower highs into session low.
The London drop broke the Asian low at 4107.92 at 09:00 UTC as firming Fed hike pricing pushed gold below $4,100. Lower highs capped at 4088.56 led to a 4073.14 session low. RSI(14) is oversold at 23.7, price is below a falling EMA20 (4100.69) and EMA50, and ATR(14) is 760 pips.
Support: 4,073.14, 4,065.00
Resistance: 4,088.56, 4,100.69, 4,107.92
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (ADP at 13:15) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4088.56 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 4073.14 session low exposes the 4065/75 zone
Reclaim of the ema20 and the Asian low at 4107.92 would negate the range break
10:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 23 · price 4,074.24
Asian range broken lower in London; lower highs since 09:15 UTC.
Gold broke below the 4107.92 Asian low in a sharp London leg from 4112 around Waller's 09:00 UTC remarks, as pre-CPI squaring and firmer hike pricing weigh. Price has printed a session low at 4073.14 under a cluster of lower highs near 4088.5. RSI(14) at 23.1 is oversold and ATR has expanded to ~780 pips ($7.80); the 4065 support cited in the macro read sits just below.
Support: 4,073.14, 4,065.00
Resistance: 4,088.50, 4,103.17, 4,107.92
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4073.14 session low exposes 4065 support
Reclaim of the 4088.5 lower high, the 38.2% of the London drop fib, ends the lower-high sequence
Retrace toward ema20 at 4103.17 (61.8% of the London drop fib) would test the broken asian low at 4107.92 from below
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3h), with ADP at 13:15, could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after London breakdown · RSI 26 · price 4,081.68
Break below Asian range, lower highs into session low.
London broke the Asian low at 4107.92 on the 09:00 UTC bar, with gold heavy as traders square up before CPI amid hawkish Fed repricing. Price is pressing the 4080.41 session low with RSI(14) oversold at 25.9 and price below both EMAs; ATR near $7.7 per bar.
Support: 4,080.41, 4,065.00
Resistance: 4,098.27, 4,105.96, 4,107.92
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (ADP 4-wk avg 13:15) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 4080.41 session low exposes the 4065 zone flagged as support
Recovery above the 4098.27 lower high and ema20 at 4105.96 would stall the downtrend read
Reclaim of the asian low at 4107.92 puts price back inside the overnight range; 38.2% of the London drop fib sits near 4098
10:03 UTC
Downtrend, extended after London break · RSI 28 · price 4,087.01
Lower highs from 4148; Asian range broken lower in London.
The 09:00 UTC bar, during Waller's appearance and with positions being squared before CPI, broke through the Asian low at 4107.92 and yesterday's prior low at 4100.45, extending to a 4080.93 session low. RSI(14) is oversold at 28.1. ATR(14) expanded to 773 pips, price sits below both EMAs, and the lower highs trendline from 4141 is intact.
Support: 4,080.93
Resistance: 4,100.45, 4,107.92, 4,114.99
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4100.45 prior low puts the asian low at 4107.92 and ema20 (4108.36) back in play
Failure to hold the 4080.93 session low exposes the 4065/75 zone
A recovery through the ema50 at 4114.99 and the lower highs trendline would break the downtrend read
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3.5h), preceded by ADP at 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range low broken in London, lower highs since Asia.
The 09:00 UTC London bar broke the Asian low at 4107.9 and gold slid about $30 through the prior low at 4091.5 to a session low at 4081.5, in line with the digest's pre-CPI square-up after the 4146-4148 rejection. RSI(14) is oversold at 22.6 and ATR has expanded to 773 pips. Price sits below both EMAs, with the ema20 at 4110.5 turning lower, and the lower highs since Asia remain intact.
Support: 4,081.50, 4,065.00
Resistance: 4,091.50, 4,107.90, 4,110.50
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4081.5 session low exposes the 4065/75 support zone
An M15 close back above the 4091.5 prior low would mark the move as a false break
Reclaiming the 4107.9 Asian low and the ema20 at 4110.5 would break the lower-highs sequence
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3h45m), preceded by ADP at 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 05:30 UTC, Asian range broken lower in London.
A $24 drop at 09:00 UTC, in the slot of Waller's scheduled remarks, broke the Asian low at 4107.92 and Monday's low near 4091.5. The selling extended to a 4086.52 session low, with RSI(14) oversold at 25.4 and ATR expanding to 765.9 pips. Price sits below both EMAs under a lower-highs line from 4127.45, with the cited 4065/75 zone next below.
Support: 4,086.52
Resistance: 4,091.47, 4,107.92, 4,113.36
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4086.5 session low exposes the 4065/75 zone
Reclaim of the 4091.5 Monday low eases the downside extension
M15 close back above the 4107.9 Asian low negates the range break
A move through the ema20 at 4113.4 and the lower highs line changes the read
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~4h), preceded by ADP at 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after a sharp leg lower · RSI 28 · price 4,097.15
Lower highs since Monday evening's 4148 peak; Asian range broken to the downside.
Gold has printed a series of lower highs under descending resistance since the 4148 Monday-evening peak, after giving back part of Monday's rally in Asia. That series resolved in a $24 range break through the asia low at 4107.92 and the 4100 base as Waller spoke at 09:00 UTC. The drop marked a 4088 session low and is now testing the monday low at 4091.47 early in the London session, with price below the ema20 and RSI(14) oversold at 28. ATR has jumped to 758.8 pips.
Support: 4,091.47, 4,088.00
Resistance: 4,100.45, 4,107.92
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 4100 base and the 38.2% drop fib near 4103 would mark the move as a sweep of the monday low
An M15 close below the 4088 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4065/75 support zone
A return above the asia low at 4107.92 puts price back inside the Asian range; descending resistance sits near 4119
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~4h), with ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia open; Asian range low broken in early London.
Gold extended its Asia-session lower-high sequence and broke the 4107.92 Asian low as Waller's 09:00 UTC slot hit early London. The forming bar dropped to a 4088.92 session low, just under Monday's 4089.46 low, amid the USD uptick and pre-CPI caution. Price sits below the ema20 at 4117.99 and the ema50 at 4119.50, with RSI(14) at 41.9 as of the prior close and ATR 625 pips.
Support: 4,088.92, 4,075.00
Resistance: 4,107.92, 4,112.02, 4,117.99
What it said to watch
Close back above the 4107.92 asian low would mark the break as a false break
4112 london base held through 07:00-08:45 UTC; reclaiming it puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 4088.92 session low exposes the 4075 support zone
Lower-highs trendline from 4140.99 caps rebounds while intact
US CPI at 13:30 UTC, about 4.5h away, could materially shift this read; Waller remarks in progress
Lower highs from 4146 through Asia, lows holding 4108–4112 into London.
Gold has given back most of Monday's oil- and Iran-driven spike to 4148, slipping past the 61.8% fib and printing lower highs under a descending trendline through Asia. The 4107.92 asian low held, and London's first hour is chopping between the 4112 swing low and the 4121.19 session high. Price sits below a flat ema20 (4118.51) and ema50 (4119.77), RSI 46.1, and ATR(14) has compressed from 799 to ~629 pips ($6.3) ahead of Waller and CPI.
Support: 4,112.02, 4,107.92, 4,100.41
Resistance: 4,118.51, 4,121.19, 4,127.45
What it said to watch
A close above the 4121.19 session high and the lower-highs trendline (~4122) breaks the Asian down-sequence, with the 4127.45 lower high next
Loss of the 4112 swing low exposes the 4107.92 asian low near the 78.6% fib (~4110.6), then the 4100.41 rally base
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (14 min) and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read and expand ATR from its compressed level
08:31 UTC
Pullback from NY high, compressing below flat EMAs · RSI 46 · price 4,116.47
Lower highs since 4148.22; higher low at 4112.02 above the Asia low.
Gold has given back Monday's late spike on pre-CPI caution, sliding from the 4148.22 NY high through Asia with a lower high at 4140.99 and a 4127.45 swing high rejected at the 50% pullback fib. Early London is holding a higher low at 4112.02 above the 4107.92 Asia low, with price just under a flat ema20 (4118.73), RSI(14) at 46.3 and ATR at 647 pips (~$6.5).
Support: 4,112.02, 4,107.92, 4,100.41
Resistance: 4,118.73, 4,127.45, 4,140.99
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4127.45 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4140.99 lower high back in view
Failure to hold the 4112.02 london low and then the 4107.92 asia low confirms a lower-low, opening the 4100.41 prior ny low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~30 min) could jolt the range before US CPI at 13:30 UTC
08:16 UTC
Post-rally pullback, now flat and compressing · RSI 48 · price 4,120.51
Lower highs since 4148, early-London range 4112–4127.
Gold gave back Monday's late spike from the 4148 range high through Asia on a modest USD uptick and pre-CPI caution, bottoming at the 4107.92 Asian low. The rebound stalled at the 4127.45 swing high, near the 50% retracement of that drop. Early London is now coiling between the 4112 swing low and that swing high, with the 08:00 close just below flat EMAs (4118.95/4120.03), RSI 48 and ATR at 645 pips and contracting.
Support: 4,112.02, 4,107.92
Resistance: 4,127.45, 4,148.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4127.45 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens 4141–4148
Loss of the 4112 swing low exposes the 4107.92 Asian low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~45 min) could break the early-London range
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main volatility event; the range high at 4146–4150 has capped two attempts
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 40 · price 4,115.01
Lower highs from 4146 Asian high; first London bar testing swing low above Asian low.
Gold gave back Monday's NY spike through Asia on a modest USD uptick and pre-CPI caution, printing a chain of lower highs from the 4146.12 Asian high. The 4127.45 bounce stalled as a lower high at the 50% retrace of the Asian decline. London opens with price below ema20 (4119.04) and ema50 (4120.11), RSI(14) at 40.2 and ATR(14) near $6.50 per bar, sitting on the 4112.02 swing low just above the 4107.92 Asian low.
Support: 4,112.02, 4,107.92, 4,100.41
Resistance: 4,119.04, 4,127.45, 4,146.12
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~1h) could jolt the London session range
M15 close below the 4107.92 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4100.41 ny base from Monday's pre-spike lows
Close back above ema20 at 4119.04 eases pressure; a break of the 4127.45 lower high invalidates the lower-highs trendline read
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the dominant risk for this read; the 4146.12 asian high caps the session above
Lower highs since Monday's NY peak, compressing above the Asian low.
Gold has faded from the Monday high at 4148.22 through the Asia session. Lower highs at 4140.99 and the 4127.45 swing high stalled near the 50% pullback fib, with pre-CPI caution and a mild USD uptick weighing. Into London open, price sits just under a flat ema20 (4119.72) and ema50 (4120.42), holding above the asian low at 4107.92; RSI 42.8 and ATR 668 pips.
Support: 4,112.86, 4,107.92, 4,100.41
Resistance: 4,119.72, 4,127.45, 4,148.22
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~73 min) could shift the pre-CPI read
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~5.7h) is the main volatility event; 4148.22 monday high caps the upside on a soft print
Failure to hold the recent low at 4112.86, then the asian low at 4107.92, extends the lower-low sequence toward psych 4100
M15 close above the 4127.45 swing high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the downtrend read
Early London has gold in the lower half of the 4107.92–4146.12 Asian range. The late-NY spike to 4148.22 has unwound on a modest USD uptick, and the Asian rebound stalled at a 4127.45 lower high near the 50% retrace. Price sits just below a flat ema20/ema50 pair near 4120, with RSI(14) at 46.1 and ATR(14) contracting to 665.5 pips ahead of CPI.
Support: 4,115.82, 4,107.92, 4,100.41
Resistance: 4,120.21, 4,127.45, 4,146.12
What it said to watch
A close back above the ema20 at 4120.21 and then the 4127.45 lower high breaks the stepping-down sequence of highs
Failure to hold the 4115.82 swing low exposes the 4107.92 asian low, with the 4100.41 prior low below
The 4146.12 asian high caps the session range; it only comes into play on a sustained break of 4127.45
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~1.5h) could tilt the pre-CPI read
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main volatility risk; contracting ATR points to a compressed range ahead of the release
Lower highs since 4146; compressing 4117–4127 under flat EMAs.
Asia has printed lower highs from the 4146.12 asian high after Monday's late NY spike. The bounce off the 4107.92 asian low met rejection at the 4127.45 swing high, near the 50% retrace of the session drop. Price sits just below the flat ema20 (4120.46) and ema50 (4120.75), with RSI(14) at 46.7 and ATR(14) easing to 681 pips as pre-CPI caution compresses the range.
Support: 4,116.84, 4,107.92, 4,100.41
Resistance: 4,120.46, 4,127.45, 4,146.12
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20 at 4120.46 and then the 4127.45 swing high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4116.84 micro low exposes the 4107.92 asian low, then the 4100.41 spike base from Monday NY
4146.12 asian high sits just under the 4146–4150 cap that has held two attempts
London open at 08:00 UTC is the first test of the 4117–4127 compression
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
Asian fade from 4146 to 4107.92, now coiling 4118–4127 at London open.
Gold gave back Monday's late push to the 4148 monday high through Asia, printing an asian low at 4107.92 on pre-CPI caution. The rebound stalled at the 4127.45 swing high, the 50% fib, and the first London bars are coiling between there and the 4118.33 swing low under the descending line from the 4141 lower high. Price is barely above flat EMAs, RSI(14) is neutral at 49.8 and ATR(14) has compressed to 663 pips.
Support: 4,118.33, 4,107.92
Resistance: 4,127.45, 4,140.99, 4,148.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4127.45 swing high and the descending line reopens the 4141 lower high
Break below the 4118.33 swing low exposes the 4107.92 asian low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~2h) could tilt the pre-CPI tone
US CPI at 13:30 UTC; a move either way would likely end the compression
Asia range 4108–4146, lower-high chain, consolidating mid-range.
Asia faded from 4146 to a double bottom at the 4107.92 asian low as the USD steadied pre-CPI. The bounce stalled at the 4127.45 bounce high, near the 50% of the 4148–4108 selloff fib, and under the trendline joining the Asia lower highs. Price is pinned to flat EMAs into London open, with RSI 50.4 and ATR compressing to 685 pips.
Support: 4,107.92, 4,100.41
Resistance: 4,127.45, 4,140.99, 4,148.22
What it said to watch
Close above the 4127.45 bounce high breaks the Asia lower-high trendline
Reclaim of the 4140.99 lower high puts the 4148.22 monday high back in play
Failure to hold the 4107.92 asian low voids the double bottom and exposes the 4100.41 ny low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia, rebound capped below the 61.8% fib.
Gold printed lower highs through the Asia session from 4146 to 4141 and dropped to an asian low at 4107.92 on pre-CPI caution and a modest USD uptick. The rebound met rejection at the 4127.45 swing high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 4141–4108 leg. Price now sits on the flat ema20/ema50 cluster near 4120.6 with RSI(14) at 50 and ATR around 695 pips (~$7) into the London open.
Support: 4,120.55, 4,107.92, 4,100.41
Resistance: 4,127.45, 4,140.99, 4,148.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4127.45 swing high and the fib zone reopens the 4141 lower high and the Asia trendline
Failure to hold the asian low at 4107.92 extends the lower-low sequence toward the monday low at 4100.41
Monday high at 4148.22 marks the $4,146-4,150 cap that turned back two prior attempts
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~2.5h) could tilt pre-CPI positioning
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~7h) is the main event risk for this read
06:17 UTC
Sideways, lower highs through Asia · RSI 51 · price 4,121.55
Asia range 4107.92–4146.12; rebound capped at 61.8% fib, price on flat EMAs.
After Monday's NY spike stalled at the 4148.22 prior high, Asia printed a lower high at 4140.99 and slid to the 4107.92 Asian low on pre-CPI caution and a modest USD uptick. The rebound was rejected at the 4127.45 swing high near the 61.8% fib. Late in the Asia session price sits just above a flat ema20 (4120.49) and ema50 (4120.80), RSI(14) neutral at 50.7, ATR ~$7.19 (719 pips).
Support: 4,120.49, 4,107.92, 4,100.41
Resistance: 4,127.45, 4,140.99, 4,148.22
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema20 at 4120.49 returns focus to the 4107.92 Asian low, then the 4100.41 NY low
Close above the 4127.45 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and exposes 4140.99, with the 4148.22 prior high above
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, then US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
06:03 UTC
Asian pullback, bounce stalling · RSI 52 · price 4,122.64
Lower highs off 4148, higher lows off 4108.
Late Asia session: gold has rebounded from the 4107.92 session low back above a flat ema20/ema50 cluster near 4120.5, then met rejection at the 4127.45 swing high, which sits at the 50% fib of the 4146–4108 Asian decline. Pre-CPI caution and a modest USD uptick drove the pullback from Monday's 4148 prior high. RSI(14) is neutral at 52 and ATR(14) has eased to 740 pips (~$7.40).
Support: 4,120.35, 4,115.36, 4,107.92
Resistance: 4,127.45, 4,140.99, 4,148.22
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the ema20 at 4120.35 and the higher lows near 4115 puts the 4107.92 session low back in play
Close above the 4127.45 swing high (50% fib) opens the 4140.99 lower high, then the 4148.22 prior high
London open within the hour can extend or break the Asian range
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~7.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4148.22, Asian low at 4107.92, bounce capped at the 38.2% fib.
Gold slipped off 4146 in the Asia session to an Asian low of 4107.92 as December hike odds firmed to 84%, printing lower highs along the way. Late Asia, the bounce stalled at 4123.5, the fib 38.2 of the 4148.22 prior high drop, leaving price just under EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 4,107.92, 4,100.41
Resistance: 4,123.50, 4,140.99, 4,148.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4123.5 (fib 38.2) opens the 50% near 4128 and the Asia lower highs trendline near 4130
Failure to hold the 4107.92 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4100.41 swing low
A move back through the 4140.99 lower high and the 4148.22 prior high would void the Asia downtrend read
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, ahead of London-NY hours, could move hike pricing before CPI
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the ADP 4-week average lands at 13:15 UTC
Asia lower highs and lows, now basing in a 4108–4117 range.
Asia faded from the 4146.1 asian high through lower highs at 4141 and the 4127.5 lower high down to a 4107.9 asian low, with gold slipping as December hike odds firmed to 84%. Late Asia is now coiling below both EMAs, RSI(14) near 43, and the bounce is capped short of the 38.2% fib of the 4141–4108 leg.
Support: 4,107.92, 4,100.41
Resistance: 4,117.30, 4,127.54, 4,146.12
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4117.3 range top opens the 38.2% fib near 4120.5 and the 4127.5 lower high
Failure to hold the 4107.9 asian low exposes Monday's 4100.4 swing low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could shift hike pricing ahead of London-NY transition
US CPI at 13:30 UTC; only a reclaim of the 4146.1 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence
Asia has unwound most of Monday's late-NY spike from 4100 to 4148, printing lower highs along a trendline from the 4140.99 swing and stalling in a 4108–4117 range beyond the 61.8% retracement of the NY rally. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 38, as the softer-USD move behind Monday's rally pauses ahead of today's CPI.
Support: 4,107.92, 4,100.41
Resistance: 4,117.30, 4,127.54
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4117.30 range top and the lower-highs trendline would break the Asia sequence of lower highs
Reclaim of the 4127.54 lower high would neutralise most of the Asia selloff
Loss of the 4107.92 Asian low, below the 78.6% NY rally fib, exposes the 4100 round number and Monday's NY low
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Gold faded from the 4146 Asian high, printing lower highs and lower lows into a 4107.92 Asian low as December hike odds firmed at 84% and Trump's Iran comments trimmed the haven bid. Late in the Asia session, price is stalling just above that low with RSI(14) near 38, capped by the 4117 swing high; the 4127.5 lower high sits near the 50% fib of the Asian decline.
Support: 4,107.92, 4,100.41
Resistance: 4,117.15, 4,127.54, 4,146.12
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4117 swing high breaks the lower-high chain, with the 4127.5 lower high next
Failure to hold the 4107.92 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4100 handle
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Double top at 4146–48, lower highs and lower lows since.
Asia has unwound most of the late-NY leg from 4100 to 4148, as December hike odds firmed at 84%. Rejection at the 4146–48 two-wk high left a double top, followed by lower highs and lower lows down to the 4107.92 asia low. Price sits on the 78.6% retracement of that leg near 4110, with RSI(14) at 40 and below both EMAs; the 4100.41 ny swing low is next underneath.
Support: 4,107.92, 4,100.41, 4,084.61
Resistance: 4,121.37, 4,140.99, 4,148.22
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4100.41 ny swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4084.61 london low
Recovery above the 4121.37 prior low and the descending trendline off 4146 would neutralise the Asia downswing, with the 4140.99 lower high above that
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and Waller at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the 4148 two-wk high caps the range
04:04 UTC
Downtrend through Asia, unwinding Monday's NY spike · RSI 41 · price 4,111.07
Lower highs and lower lows from the 4146 Asia high; price at 78.6% fib.
Asia session has given back most of Monday's late-NY spike from the 4100 swing low to 4148. Lower highs off the 4141 swing high and the 4117 lower high have carried price to a 4108 session low as firmer Fed hike odds and Trump's Iran comments trimmed the haven bid. Price sits at the 78.6% fib, below an EMA20/50 cluster near 4121 where EMA20 has just crossed under, with RSI(14) at 41.
Support: 4,107.92, 4,100.41, 4,084.61
Resistance: 4,117.15, 4,121.00, 4,140.99
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4121 ema cluster and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise the Asia downtrend
A break of the 4108 session low and the 4100 swing low would erase Monday's spike and expose the 4084.6 monday low
A recovery through the 4141 swing high would void the lower-high sequence
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend through Asia · RSI 37 · price 4,110.27
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4146 Asia high.
The Asia session has unwound most of the late-NY spike from 4100 to 4148. Rejection under the 4146–4150 cap left a chain of lower highs at 4146, 4141 and 4117. Price now sits at the 4108 session low near the 78.6% retrace, with RSI(14) at ~37, not stretched, and the 4100 spike base the next reference into London open.
Support: 4,108.32, 4,100.41, 4,084.61
Resistance: 4,117.15, 4,120.35, 4,146.12
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4108 session low exposes the 4100 spike base and round number
Loss of 4100 puts the 4084.6 monday low in play
M15 close above the 4117 lower high and the 4120 prior lows breaks the Asia lower-high chain
A recovery to the 4146 asia high would retest the 4146–4150 cap
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, 4,120 floor broken.
The Asia session has turned lower from the 4,146 open. Price set a lower high at 4,127.5, broke the 4,120 prior low and printed a 4,109.8 Asia low, and is now basing just under the falling lower-highs line with RSI(14) near 38. Rallies have stayed well below yesterday's 4,148 2-week high (the 4,146–4,150 cap), as firmer December hike odds trimmed the haven bid ahead of CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4,127.5 lower high (near the 61.8% fib of the Asia drop) invalidates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4,109.8 Asia low exposes yesterday's 4,100.4 NY low and the round number
Reclaim of the 4,120.4 prior low would mark the break below it as a false break
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, retracing the late NY rally · RSI 35 · price 4,113.30
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; price near the 78.6% of the 4100–4148 leg.
The late NY rally from the 4100.41 NY low ran to a 4148.22 NY high on USD and oil weakness. Asia was rejected under that cap and has printed a lower high at 4140.99 and lower lows through the 4121 broken low to the 4109.83 Asia low. Price now sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% of the NY rally fib as firmer December hike pricing trims the haven bid, with RSI(14) near 35 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,109.83, 4,100.41
Resistance: 4,121.37, 4,140.99, 4,148.22
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4109.83 Asia low exposes the 4100.41 NY low and the 4100 handle
A reclaim of the 4121 broken low and the lower highs trendline would neutralise the Asian lower-high chain
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, then US CPI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read; a soft print puts the 4148.22 NY high back in focus
03:05 UTC
Intraday downtrend through Asia · RSI 37 · price 4,110.45
Lower highs from 4146, Asian range floor broken.
Gold has unwound most of Monday's NY rally from 4100 to the 4148 two-week high as Asia firmed December hike odds. Lower highs at 4146 and the 4141 lower high led to a break of the 4120 asia floor at 02:30 UTC. Price now sits on the 78.6% NY rally fib near 4110, with RSI(14) at 37 and the 4100 rally base just below.
Support: 4,100.40, 4,084.60
Resistance: 4,120.40, 4,141.00, 4,148.20
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 4120 asia floor would negate the Asian range break
A break below the 4100 rally base exposes the monday low at 4084.6
A close above the 4141 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the Asia sequence; 4148 two-week high sits above
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend through Asia · RSI 33 · price 4,113.24
Lower highs from 4146, Asian floor at 4120–4121 broken.
Asia has printed lower highs from the 4146 reopen high. The 01:45 UTC break of the 4120–4121 floor, now a broken low, has carried gold to a fresh asia low at 4112.65, past the 61.8% of the late-NY rally from 4100.41 to 4148.22, as USD edges firmer into CPI. RSI(14) is near 33 and price sits below both EMAs, short of oversold.
Support: 4,112.65, 4,100.41, 4,084.61
Resistance: 4,121.37, 4,140.99, 4,148.22
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4112.65 asia low exposes the 4100.41 ny low and $4,100 handle, then the 4084.61 london low
A move back above the 4121 broken low would negate the Asian range break
An M15 close above the 4141 lower high and the Asia trendline invalidates the intraday downtrend read; the 4148 prior high caps above
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 4120–4146 with lower highs; price testing the range low.
Mid-Asia, gold is pressing the 4120.35 asian low after a lower high at 4141.0 stalled under the 4148.2 two-week hi. It sits at the 50% fib of the late-NY 4100–4148 rally, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 39, as December Fed hike odds firm at 84%.
Support: 4,120.35, 4,113.20, 4,100.40
Resistance: 4,141.00, 4,148.20
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4120.35 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 4113.2 ny swing low, then the 4100.4 ny low
Reclaim of the 4141.0 lower high and the Asia lower-highs trendline brings the 4148.2 two-week hi back into play
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 4120–4146; lower high at 4141, price retesting the range floor.
The Asia session has built a 4120–4146 range below Monday's late-NY 2-week high at 4148. A lower high at 4141 has pushed price back onto the Asian low at 4120.35, between the 50% and 61.8% of the NY rally from 4100, as December hike odds firmed to 84%. RSI(14) is near 46 and price is under both EMAs.
Support: 4,120.35, 4,100.41
Resistance: 4,140.99, 4,148.22
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4120.35 asian low breaks the range floor and exposes the 4100.41 ny low and the $4,100 handle
Reclaiming the 4141 lower high and the falling line off the Asia highs negates the fade; the 4148 2-week high is the $4,146–4,150 cap
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The late-NY spike off the 4110 spike base stalled at the 4148.52 two-week high. Oil and USD weakness drove that move. About three hours into Asia, price has printed a lower high at 4141.44 and has held the 4121.7 Asian low twice. Price is sitting on the ema50 near 4126, between the 38.2% and 50% fib retrace levels (50% at 4124.5), with RSI(14) neutral at 45.
Support: 4,121.69, 4,109.81, 4,100.52
Resistance: 4,141.44, 4,148.52
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4121.7 Asian low opens the 4110 spike base, then the 4100.5 ny low
Close above the 4141.4 lower high reopens the 4146.7–4148.5 two-week high cap
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Range below 4148 cap after NY spike · RSI 52 · price 4,139.14
Asia session range 4121.7–4146.7 under the two-week high, higher low holding.
The late-NY spike from the 4100.5 NY low stalled at 4148.5, the two-week high, as USD faded on lower oil. In Asia, gold was rejected below that cap at the 4146.7 session high. It then dipped to the 4121.7 session low, near the 50–61.8% fib of the leg, and has climbed back above the old NY high at 4130.6. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 ahead of US CPI.
Support: 4,130.60, 4,121.70, 4,100.50
Resistance: 4,146.70, 4,148.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4148.5 two-week high breaks the post-spike range cap
Losing the old NY high at 4130.6 returns focus to the 4121.7 session low
Failure to hold the 4121.7 session low exposes the 4100.5 NY low and fib base
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
01:17 UTC
Range after late-NY rally, momentum neutral · RSI 49 · price 4,132.46
Asia pullback held at 56% of NY leg; 4121.7–4146.7 Asian range.
Monday's late-NY rally from the 4100.52 swing low to a 4148.52 prior high came as the USD slid on oil and Iran headlines. Asia faded it to an asian low at 4121.69, near the 61.8% fib. Two bars held there and the 01:00 UTC bar rejected the low, reclaiming EMA20 to 4132 with a 4137.95 rebound high. Price sits mid-range below the 4146.65 asian high, RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 4,121.69, 4,100.52
Resistance: 4,137.95, 4,146.65, 4,148.52
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4146.65 asian high and 4148.52 prior high breaks the two-week cap
Failure to hold the 4121.69 asian low exposes the 4100.52 swing low
Rebound high at 4137.95 is the first cap; rejection there keeps the Asian range intact
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Double top at 4146.5–4148.5, Asia lower highs, holding 50% retrace.
Gold printed a double top after the late-NY spike from the ny low at 4100.5, which came as falling oil and a softer USD lifted the metal. The Monday high at 4148.5 capped price, and the Asia session retest at 4146.6 met rejection. Price is now below the ema20 near 4131 and sitting on the 50% retracement near 4124, just above the asia low at 4121.7, with RSI(14) at 41.
Support: 4,121.70, 4,113.10, 4,100.50
Resistance: 4,131.00, 4,148.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asia low at 4121.7 exposes the 61.8% at 4118.9 and the ny pivot near 4113
Reclaim of the ema20 / 38.2% zone near 4131 neutralises the pullback read, with the Monday high at 4148.5 above
Failure to hold the 4113 ny pivot opens the ny low at 4100.5, the origin of the spike
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Late-NY up-leg fading in Asia · RSI 47 · price 4,126.49
Lower high at 4146.65, 4134 neckline lost, retesting breakout zone.
A late-NY spike out of the 4100–4130 range, driven by USD weakness and the oil rout, ran to a 4148.52 session high. Asia printed a lower high at 4146.65 and slipped back through the 4134 neckline of that double top. Price is now retesting the old 4130 cap, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 4100.5–4148.5 leg, with the asian low at 4121.69 the nearest floor and price back under EMA20.
Support: 4,121.69, 4,110.00, 4,100.52
Resistance: 4,134.02, 4,148.52
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4134 neckline negates the double top read and puts the 4148.52 session high back in play
Break of the 4121.69 asian low exposes the 61.8% fib near 4119, the 4110 spike base, then the 4100.5 NY low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The late-NY surge off the 4110 NY base, driven by the softer USD and the oil rout, topped at the 4148.52 prior high, matching last week's 4146–4150 highs. A second test at the Asia open faded at 4146.65. The drop through the 4134 neckline has carried price to a 4126.97 session low, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 4100–4148 leg, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 4,126.97, 4,124.52, 4,109.81
Resistance: 4,134.02, 4,148.52
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4134 neckline negates the double-top read
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 4124.5 opens the measured ~4120 area, then the 4110 NY base
A clean break of the 4148.5 prior high would end the 4146–4150 rejection
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:17 UTC
Short-term uptrend, stalling in a range · RSI 52 · price 4,133.71
Post-breakout range 4134–4148, lower highs through Asia.
Late-Monday breakout through the 4130–4134 prior high, as oil and the USD slid, ran to a 4148.52 monday high, and price has held a 4134–4148 range since. The Asia session faded from a 4146.65 asia high to press the range floor, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and price sitting on the EMA20.
Support: 4,134.00, 4,124.50
Resistance: 4,146.65, 4,148.52, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4134 range floor opens a retest of the 4130 prior high, also the 38.2% of the breakout leg fib
Failure to hold 4130 exposes the fib 50% at 4124.5
Clearance of the 4148.52 monday high and the 4150 round number breaks the consolidation higher
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-breakout consolidation 4134–4148.5 above the 4130–4134 ceiling.
A late-NY surge off the 4100.5 NY low cleared the 4130–4134 ceiling that capped Asia and London, with a softer USD and the oil slide driving the move. Price tagged a 4148.5 session high and is now holding a 4134–4148.5 consolidation into early Asia, just under last week's 4146–4150 prior high, with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 4,134.00, 4,130.80, 4,100.50
Resistance: 4,148.50, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4134 range low puts the 4130.8 breakout lvl retest in play, with the 50% retracement of the late-NY leg fib near 4124.5
Close above the 4148.5 session high and 4150 prior high extends the breakout leg
Failure back under 4124.5 exposes the 4100.5 ny low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read