22:05 UTC
Downtrend, rebound failed below EMA50 · RSI 43 · price 3,987.73
Lower highs and lower lows since the late-August 4696 peak.
Gold has carved lower highs and lower lows since the late-August 4696.74 peak, and it has held below a steadily falling EMA50 (4142.81) since the late-September break of 4110. Last week's rebound from the 3870.26 cycle low, where RSI touched 29, stalled twice at 4147–4148. That is just above EMA50 and near the 23.6–38.2% zone of the Aug–Oct decline fib. Tuesday's hot US CPI and the jump in 10y yields above 5% then produced a bearish engulfing day, and Wednesday's close at 3987.73 sits back below 4000 and the ema20 at 4061.56, with ATR expanding to roughly $88 a day.
Support: 3,975.70, 3,870.26
Resistance: 4,061.56, 4,148.52, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 3975.70 prior low would extend the lower-low chain toward the 3870.26 cycle low
- Reclaiming the ema20 at 4061.56 on a closing basis would put the 4148.52 nov high and EMA50 back in play
- Daily close above the 4227.28 oct high would break the lower-highs sequence and invalidate the downtrend read
- Fri 13:30 UTC US core PPI (f/c 5% y/y) and Thu claims plus Fedspeak could shift December hike pricing and this read