Lower highs and lower lows from the 4148.52 week high; accepted below 4000.
Gold has given back all of Monday's rally. From the 4148.52 week high set in Monday's late NY session, Waller's 50bp warning and the hot US CPI beat sent price to 4013.74 on Tuesday. Wednesday's rebound stalled at a lower high at 4066.97, near the 50% fib of the week-high move, before NY selling pushed through the 4000 psych level to a week low at 3982.62. Price holds below a falling EMA(20) at 4019.1 and EMA(50) at 4045.6, with RSI(14) at 22.7 oversold and ATR(14) easing from 1416 to 1200.8 pips as the late-session drift slows.
Support: 3,982.62
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,019.10, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the 4000 psych level and the ema20 at 4019.1 would ease the downtrend read
Rebounds capped below the lower highs line from the week high keep the sequence intact; the 38.2% week-high fib sits near 4046, alongside EMA(50)
A move above the 4066.97 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 3982.62 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims (f/c 195K), then a heavy Fed speaker slate, could materially shift this read; Fri core PPI is the week's main test
Lower highs from Tuesday's 4141 top, 4000 psych broken.
Monday's rally to 4148.52 reversed on Tuesday after the hot US CPI beat lifted yields and the USD. NY session selling on Wednesday then carried gold through the 4000 psych level to a week low at 3982.62, below the weekly open of 4061.33. Price sits under a falling EMA(20) at 4019.1 and EMA(50) at 4045.6, and Wednesday's lower high at 4066.97 extends the lower highs sequence; RSI(14) at 22.7 is oversold while ATR has eased to 1200.8 pips as late-session bars flatten near the lows.
Support: 3,982.62
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,019.10, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4000 psych level and EMA(20) at 4019.1 would ease the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 3982.62 week low extends the lower-low sequence
A move through the 38.2% fib near 4046 and the 4066.97 lower high would break the lower highs structure
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims (f/c 195K) and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read; Fri PPI follows
21:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and stretched · RSI 20 · price 3,984.63
Lower highs from Monday's 4148 peak, fresh week low.
Gold has unwound Monday's NY-session push to 4148.52. Tuesday's hot US CPI drove the NY-hours slide to 4013.74, and Wednesday's London bounce stalled at 4066.97, roughly half of the Monday-to-Wednesday decline, setting another lower high. NY then broke out of Wednesday's range, through the tuesday low and the 4000 psych level, to a 3982.62 week low. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) at 20.3 oversold and ATR easing from 1605 to 1255 pips as the selling slows.
Support: 3,982.62
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,013.74, 4,022.41
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 4000 psych and the 4013.74 tuesday low would flag the break as a false break
EMA(20) at 4022.41 has capped price since the NY selloff; a reclaim would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 3982.62 week low extends the lower-low structure with oversold RSI unresolved
Thursday 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
Gold has given back all of Monday's rally to 4148.52. Tuesday's hot CPI beat drove the NY-session collapse, and Wednesday's early London bounce stalled at the wed high of 4066.97, close to the 50% fib of the selloff, before NY hours carried price through the 4000 psych level to a week low at 3983.03. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 4026.31 and EMA(50) at 4050.52, along a lower-high trendline, with RSI(14) oversold at 20.6 and ATR easing to 1304 pips from about 1605 earlier in the day.
Support: 3,983.03
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,026.31, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4000 psych level would mark the sub-4000 break as a false break
Failure to hold the week low at 3983.03 extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of ema20 at 4026.31 and a push through the lower-high trendline would challenge the downtrend read
A rebound into the wed high at 4066.97 (50% fib) tests the supply that capped Wednesday's bounce
Thu 13:30 GMT jobless claims, the Fed-speaker slate and Fri 13:30 GMT core PPI could materially shift this read
Gold has unwound Monday's run to the 4,148.52 week high. Tuesday's hot US CPI drove the NY-session break, and Wednesday's Asia rebound stalled at 4,066.97, leaving a third lower high along the descending trendline. Today's NY session pushed through Tuesday's 4,013.74 low (tue low) and the 4,000 psych handle to a 3,986.74 week low, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) at 20.7, oversold, after sliding from 50 earlier in the day.
Support: 3,986.74
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,013.74, 4,030.49
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 4,000 psych and 4,013.74 tue low would mark the breakdown as a false break
Failure to hold the 3,986.74 week low extends the lower-low sequence from the week drop
Rebounds stalling below the ema20 (4,030.49) or the 38.2% week drop fib near 4,049 keep the lower highs trendline intact
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims (f/c 195K) and the Fedspeak that follows could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday peak, Tue–Wed range broken to the downside.
Gold has fully unwound Monday's rally to 4148.52 since Tuesday's hot US CPI. Wednesday's London bounce stalled at 4066.97, a lower high, and the NY session then took out the 4013.74 cpi low and the 4000 psych handle to a fresh week low near 3990. Price trades below a rolling-over EMA(20) at 4035.05 and the EMA(50) at 4055.82, while RSI(14) at 22.2 is oversold after sliding from 50 in under ten bars and ATR(14) has re-expanded to ~1,382 pips through the post-CPI drop.
Support: 3,990.61
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,013.74, 4,035.05
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 4000 psych and the 4013.74 cpi low would turn this range break into a false break
Rebounds capped below ema20 at 4035.05 keep the lower-highs sequence intact
A fresh week low below 3990.61 with RSI(14) holding above its prior trough would flag rsi divergence (bullish)
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed speaker slate on 25 vs 50 bps could shift this read; Fri core PPI is the larger risk
Lower highs from Monday's 4148.52 peak; Tuesday's CPI low broken in NY hours.
Gold reversed Monday's run to 4148.52 after Tuesday's hot US CPI print and has since printed a lower high at 4066.97 in Wednesday's London session. That high sits about $3 under the 38.2% retracement of the CPI drop near 4056. During NY hours today price broke Tuesday's 4013.74 CPI low and is now pinned at the 4000 psych handle and the 3998.57 week low, with RSI(14) oversold at 24.1. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 4039.46 and EMA(50) at 4058.38. ATR has re-expanded from 1267 to 1381 pips on the breakdown.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,998.57
Resistance: 4,013.74, 4,039.46, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4013.74 cpi low would mark the break below it as a false break
Failure to hold the 4000 psych / 3998.57 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Rebound stalling at the ema20 (4039.46) keeps the lower highs trendline intact
Close above the 4066.97 lower high breaks the downtrend structure and clears the 38.2% fib
Thu 13:30 GMT jobless claims and Fedspeak slate (Williams last), then Fri core PPI, could materially shift this read
16:04 UTC
Downtrend, oversold at new week low · RSI 25 · price 4,004.22
Lower highs 4148→4067, lower low at 4000.70.
Gold reversed from Monday's 4148.52 high after Tuesday's hot US CPI beat and slid to 4013.74. Wednesday's bounce through Asia into London open stalled at 4066.97, the wed high, just above the EMA(50) at 4060.73, putting a lower high on the lower-high trendline. NY hours then broke the 4026–4067 range and printed a week low at 4000.70, below Tuesday's low, with RSI(14) oversold at 25.3 and price under a flattening-to-falling EMA(20) at 4043.53.
Support: 4,000.70
Resistance: 4,013.74, 4,043.53, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4000.70 week low and the 4000 psych handle extends the lower-low sequence
H1 close back above the 4013.74 tue low would mark the break as a false break
Reclaim of EMA(20) at 4043.53 and the 4066.97 wed high would break the lower-high trendline and weaken the downtrend read
Thu 13:30 GMT jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate, then Fri core PPI, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4148.52; Wednesday range broken lower.
Monday's NY-session push to the 4148.52 week high was erased by Tuesday's hot US CPI, which sent gold through the prior NFP low of 4027.52 during NY hours. Wednesday's Asia-London bounce stalled at the 4066.97 wed high, near the 38.2% fib and just above EMA(50) at 4063. Price then slipped back under EMA(20) at 4047.58. The first hour of NY broke Wednesday's range to a new week low at 4010.77, with RSI(14) oversold at 28.3 and ATR picking up again after compressing since Tuesday.
Support: 4,010.77, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,027.52, 4,047.58, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4027.52 nfp low would mark the break of the week low as a possible false break
Reclaim of ema20 at 4047.58 and then the 4066.97 wed high / lower-high trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 4000 psych handle confirms extension below the week low
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and a dense run of Fed speakers could materially shift this read
Fri 13:30 UTC core PPI is the week's next high-impact print for USD and yields
Gold reversed from Monday's 4148.52 week high to the 4013.74 week low. Waller's remarks started the slide during London on Tuesday, and the hot US CPI beat extended it into NY. Wednesday's London bounce stalled at the 4066.97 wed high, just above the week open and at the 38.2% retrace of the CPI drop. Price has since slipped back below the ema20 (4050.98) and ema50 (4064.95), with RSI(14) rolling over from 50 to 37.6 and ATR compressing from ~1800 to ~1281 pips.
Support: 4,026.64, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,050.98, 4,061.33, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the ema20 at 4050.98 and the week open at 4061.33 would challenge the lower-high read
A close above the 4066.97 wed high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the 38.2% CPI-drop retrace
Loss of the 4026.64 asia low exposes the 4013.74 week low and the 4000 psych handle
US Initial Jobless Claims (Thu 13:30 UTC, f/c 195K) and Hammack's speech could materially shift this read
Lower high at 4067 under the 4148 week high, holding above the 4014 low.
Monday's NY-session rally to 4148.52 reversed on Tuesday. Waller's hawkish remarks and the hot US CPI drove a slide during NY hours to the 4013.74 tue low, with RSI(14) dipping to the mid-20s. Wednesday's rebound stalled at 4066.97 in early London, a wed high sitting on EMA(50) and the 38.2% level of the CPI drop fib, just under the 4071.51 prior close. Price has since slipped back below EMA(20) at 4052.35, with RSI(14) at 41 and ATR compressing, leaving the 4026.64 wed low and the 4000 psych handle as the nearby references.
Support: 4,026.64, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,052.35, 4,066.97, 4,071.51
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4066.97 wed high and EMA(50) breaks the lower highs sequence from Monday
Failure to hold the 4026.64 wed low exposes the 4013.74 tue low and the 4000 psych level
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers through Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Fri 13:30 UTC Core PPI YoY (f/c 5%) is the next high-impact inflation test
Lower highs since Monday's peak; Wednesday rebound capped at 38.2% retrace.
Gold peaked at 4148.52 late Monday, then Tuesday's hotter US CPI print drove a NY-session slide to the 4013.74 week low, well below the 4071.51 prior-week close. Wednesday's Asia-session rebound stalled at the 4066.97 wed high, which sits at the 38.2% retracement and EMA(50), and London has since slipped back under EMA(20) at 4053.22. RSI(14) has eased from 50 to 41 off Tuesday's oversold readings, and ATR is compressing as the bounce loses range.
Support: 4,026.64, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,053.22, 4,066.97, 4,084.68
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 4053.22 and then the 4066.97 wed high would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4026.64 wed low exposes the 4013.74 week low and the 4000 psych handle
Acceptance above the 4084.68 monday low would neutralise most of Tuesday's CPI breakdown
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims (f/c 195K) and Fedspeak through Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 4148 then lower low at 4013; higher lows since, capped at 38.2%.
Tuesday's hot US CPI drove the NY-session leg from Monday's 4148 high to the 4013.74 week low, unwinding Monday's rally from the 4061 weekly open. The bounce off the low has printed higher lows at 4026.64 and 4046.50. It met rejection at the 4066.97 day high in early London, near the 38.2% retracement of the CPI leg and EMA(50) at 4067.87, and price now sits just under a flattening ema20 at 4054.14. RSI(14) has recovered from sub-30 Tuesday readings to the mid-40s, while ATR has compressed from 1860 to 1322 pips as the post-CPI range narrows.
Support: 4,046.50, 4,026.64, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,054.14, 4,061.33, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4066.97 day high and EMA(50) would turn the bounce into a reclaim of the weekly open zone
Failure to hold the 4046.50 session low and the higher lows trendline would expose the 4026.64 higher low and the 4013.74 week low
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC and the Fed-speaker slate could shift this read ahead of Friday's core PPI
Lower highs off week high, rebound stalling below ema50.
Tuesday's hot US CPI print drove a NY-session reversal from Monday's 4148.52 week high to a 4013.74 week low, with RSI(14) dipping to 24.4 before recovering to 44.6. Wednesday's Asia-session rebound built a run of higher lows but met rejection at 4067, just under the ema50 at 4068.56 and the 38.2% retracement of the CPI drop. It has since faded into London to retest the ema20 at 4054.49 from below, while ATR(14) has compressed from 1860 to 1350 pips as the bounce lacks follow-through.
Support: 4,046.64, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,054.49, 4,068.56, 4,148.52
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema50 at 4068.56 and the 4067 rebound high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 4046.64 session low and the Wednesday higher-lows trendline exposes the 4013.74 week low, then the 4000 psych level
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate, then Fri core PPI, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday's peak; Wednesday higher lows below EMA(50).
Gold printed the week high at 4148.52 late Monday. Waller's London-session remarks and Tuesday's hot US CPI (0.4% vs 0.3% m/m) then drove a slide to the 4013.74 swing low into NY hours. Wednesday's Asia and London-open bounce has built higher lows and pushed price back above EMA(20) at 4054.91, while RSI(14) has recovered from 24.4 to around 50. The rebound stalled at 4066.97, near the 38.2% retracement of the CPI drop and just under EMA(50) at 4069.3, which still slopes lower; overall structure remains a lower-high sequence.
Support: 4,054.91, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,069.30, 4,081.10, 4,148.52
What it said to watch
H1 close above EMA(50) at 4069.3 opens the fib 50% retracement at 4081.1; a hold below keeps the bounce corrective
Break of the Wednesday higher-low line near 4045 and loss of EMA(20) exposes the 4013.74 swing low, then the 4000 round number
Week high at 4148.52 stays the structural ceiling of the lower-high sequence
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and a heavy Fed-speaker slate (Williams 23:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI higher lows into 38.2% fib, capped below EMA(50).
The week's dominant move came on Tuesday. The slide began on Waller's London-hours remarks, and the hot CPI beat then flushed gold from Monday's NY-session high at 4148.52 to the 4013.74 cpi low. A sequence of higher lows since then has lifted price back above EMA(20) through Asia and into London. RSI(14) has recovered from 24.4 to about 50, but the bounce has stalled at 4066.97, the 38.2% fib of the week's drop, just under EMA(50) at 4069.71, while ATR(14) has compressed from 1,860 to 1,405 pips.
Support: 4,045.17, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,066.97, 4,069.71, 4,081.13
What it said to watch
H1 close above EMA(50) at 4069.71 and the 38.2% fib opens the 50% fib near 4081, the pre-CPI breakdown ledge
Failure to hold the 4045 higher low and the rising trendline returns focus to the cpi low at 4013.74 and the 4,000 handle
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers on 50bp hike risk could materially shift this read
Fri 13:30 UTC US PPI is the key catalyst for the hike path and gold's hold of 4,050
Lower high at 4148.52, week low 4013.74, rebound into 38.2% fib.
Monday's rally to a 4148.52 week high unwound on Tuesday. Waller's London-session remarks started the slide and the hot US CPI beat extended it through NY hours to a 4013.74 week low, with RSI(14) bottoming at 24.4. Dip buying in the Asia session has lifted price back above EMA(20) at 4053.95 and onto the weekly open near 4061, while ATR(14) has compressed from 1860 to 1450 pips. The rebound is now pressing the asian high at 4066.08, which sits on the 38.2% fib, just under a still-falling EMA(50) at 4070.14.
Support: 4,053.95, 4,026.64, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,066.08, 4,070.14, 4,084.68
What it said to watch
H1 close above EMA(50) at 4070.14 and the asian high opens the 50% fib near 4081 and the monday low at 4084.68
Break below EMA(20) and the asian higher-lows line exposes the asian low at 4026.64, then the week low at 4013.74 and 4000
RSI(14) failing to clear 50 would leave the rebound as a corrective retest of the CPI breakdown
Thursday's Jobless Claims and Fed speaker slate, then Friday's US PPI, could materially shift this read
Tuesday's hot US CPI print, following Waller's hawkish remarks in London, completed the 4146.92–4148.52 double top and broke Friday's 4027.52 NFP low, flushing to the CPI low at 4013.74 during NY hours as RSI(14) bottomed at 24.4. The Asia session rebound off a higher low at 4026.64 has carried price back above EMA(20) at 4053.3 and into the 38.2% fib near 4065, with RSI back to 49.4. Price still sits below the weekly open at 4061.33 and a falling EMA(50) at 4070.55, so the bounce reads as corrective within the lower-highs sequence.
Support: 4,053.30, 4,026.64, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,061.33, 4,070.55, 4,081.13
What it said to watch
H1 close above EMA(50) at 4070.55 and the 50% fib at 4081.13 would break the lower-highs trendline and challenge the downtrend read
Failure to hold above the weekly open at 4061.33 keeps the 38.2% fib zone acting as a cap
Loss of EMA(20) and the 4026.64 higher low reopens the CPI low at 4013.74
Thu jobless claims and Fedspeak, then Fri US PPI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce in Asia · RSI 42 · price 4,046.01
Double top at 4146–4148 confirmed; lower highs since Monday, basing above 4013.
Gold printed a double top at 4146–4148, matching last Thursday's high with Monday's NY-session peak. Supply then drove a run of lower highs, starting with Waller's London-hours remarks and accelerating on Tuesday's hot US CPI, which broke Friday's 4027 swing low to set the CPI low at 4013.74. The Asia session has rebuilt to 4046, near the 23.6% retracement of the 4148–4013 drop, but price still sits below a declining EMA(20) at 4052.76 and EMA(50) at 4071.04, with RSI(14) recovering to 42 from a 24.4 trough.
Support: 4,026.64, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,052.76, 4,061.33, 4,071.04
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 and lower-highs trendline near 4053 breaks the sequence of lower highs; the week open at 4061.33, 38.2% at 4065 and ema50 at 4071 sit above
Failure to hold the asia low at 4026.64 exposes the CPI low at 4013.74 and the 4000 psych handle
RSI(14) rolling over below 50 on this bounce keeps the downtrend read intact
US jobless claims and Fed speakers Thu 13:30 UTC onward, then Friday's 13:30 UTC PPI, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4148 week high; post-CPI base forming above 4013.
Monday's oil-driven Asia-session rally to the 4148.52 week high was fully erased once the hot US CPI hit at the NY open Tuesday, with the selloff running to a 4013.74 cpi low and taking price back below the weekly open at 4061. The Asian session rebound has stalled at 4052.66, just under the ema20 at 4053.44, and price sits below both EMAs with the ema20 still sloping lower. RSI(14) has recovered to 41.7 from a 24.4 trough, while ATR is easing back from its post-CPI expansion, consistent with consolidation above the asian low at 4031.
Support: 4,031.11, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,053.44, 4,061.33, 4,072.05
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 4053.44 and the weekly open at 4061 would bring the 38.2% fib near 4065 and the ema50 at 4072 into play
Failure to hold the asian low at 4031 and the rebound lows trendline exposes the 4013.74 cpi low and the psych 4000 handle
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims (f/c 195K) and the run of Fed speakers into Williams could materially shift this read
Fri 13:30 UTC US PPI is the high-impact catalyst for a break of the 4000–4072 band
Post-CPI consolidation below falling EMAs, higher lows.
Gold reversed from Monday's 4148.52 week high. The slide started during London on Tuesday around Waller's remarks, then extended through the hot US CPI print in the NY session to a 4013.74 week low, back below the 4061.33 weekly open. Since then price has held a tight 4014–4053 consolidation with higher lows into today's Asia session. RSI(14) has recovered from 24.4 to 40.6 and ATR(14) has compressed from 1860 to 1548 pips, but price still sits below a falling EMA(20) at 4054.28 and EMA(50) at 4073.14.
Support: 4,026.64, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,054.28, 4,061.33, 4,073.14
What it said to watch
H1 close above the EMA(20) at 4054.28 and the 4061.33 weekly open would put the 38.2% fib near 4065 and the EMA(50) at 4073.14 in play
Failure to hold the 4026.64 Asia low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 4013.74 week low and the 4000 psych handle
Thu 13:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims (f/c 195K) and a heavy Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
Fri 13:30 UTC US PPI is the high-impact test for whether the consolidation resolves or the downtrend extends
Lower highs from 4148.52; base forming 4014–4053 after CPI leg.
Monday's rally to the 4148.52 week high fully unwound on Tuesday. A London-session slide from 4113 ran into the hot US CPI print (0.4% vs 0.3% f/c) and extended to a 4013.74 week low during NY hours, taking price back below the weekly open at 4061.33. The Asian-session bounce has stalled under EMA(20) at 4055.39, with both EMAs sloping lower and RSI(14) recovering to 41 from a 24 low. ATR(14) is near $16.
Support: 4,026.64, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,055.39, 4,061.33, 4,074.34
What it said to watch
H1 close above ema20 at 4055.39 and the weekly open at 4061.33 would mark a recovery into the 38.2% fib near 4065, with ema50 at 4074.34 above
Failure to hold the asian low at 4026.64 re-exposes the 4013.74 week low and the 4000 psych handle
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims (f/c 195K) and the Fed speaker slate into Williams could materially shift this read
Fri 13:30 UTC US PPI (MoM f/c 0.4%) is the high-impact test for the CPI selloff
Lower highs from the week high, post-CPI base forming above the swing low.
Gold reversed from Monday's 4148.52 week high. Waller during the London session and the hot US CPI beat (0.4% vs 0.3%) at the NY open drove a slide through the 4061.33 weekly open to a 4013.74 swing low, below last Friday's 4027.52 prior low. Since then price has compressed in a 4014–4042 band capped by the range top just under the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) lifting from 24.4 to 34.4 and ATR easing from 1860 pips. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 4056.51 and EMA(50) at 4075.54.
Support: 4,027.52, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,041.95, 4,056.51, 4,061.33
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4041.95 range top and the ema20 at 4056.51 would shift the read toward a CPI-selloff retracement, with the 4061.33 weekly open next
Failure to hold the 4027.52 prior low, then a break of the 4013.74 swing low, extends the downtrend toward the 4000 psych handle
Thu 13:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims (f/c 195K) and the Fed speaker run into Williams could materially shift this read
Fri 13:30 UTC US PPI is the higher-impact test of the post-CPI move
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stabilising off the lows · RSI 36 · price 4,038.11
Lower highs from Monday's peak; post-CPI consolidation above week low.
Gold gave back Monday's rally from the 4148.52 week high in steps. Each bounce printed a lower high, Waller's remarks in Tuesday's London session broke the 4100 area, and the hot US CPI beat extended the slide through NY hours to a 4013.74 week low. Price is now consolidating in a narrow late-NY/Asian range just above Friday's NFP low at 4027.52, below a falling EMA(20) at 4058.93 and EMA(50) at 4077.26, with the 38.2% retracement of the CPI leg near 4065 sitting just above the EMA(20). RSI(14) has lifted to 36 from a sub-30 dip at 24.4 and remains well short of 50, and ATR is easing back from its post-CPI expansion.
Support: 4,027.52, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,058.93, 4,077.26, 4,148.52
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 4058.93 and the 38.2% of the CPI leg near 4065 would mark the first repair of the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the nfp low at 4027.52, then the 4013.74 week low, exposes the 4000 round number
Ema50 at 4077.26, just above last Friday's 4071.51 close, is the next cap if a bounce develops
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims plus Fed speakers (Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, Daly, Williams) could materially shift this read
Fri 13:30 UTC US PPI is the week's remaining inflation test for the 4000 area