Gold has printed lower highs and lower lows since the late-August peak at 4696.74, with price below a falling EMA(50). Every rebound has stalled under the descending trendline from the 4399.53 lower high, and the last three weeks have compressed into a 4100–4220 consolidation above the 4066.52 two-month low. Monday's push to 4217 met rejection at the trendline, which also lines up with the 23.6% fib of the August–October decline, as a 17-month-high USD and hawkish Fed pricing into Wednesday's CPI cap rebounds.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,066.52, 3,960.00
Resistance: 4,217.00, 4,307.00, 4,400.00
What it said to watch
Daily close above the 4217 trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 38.2% fib near 4307, then the 4400 lower high
Daily close below the 4100 range floor and the 4066.52 two-month low extends the downtrend toward the July base near 3960
US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
RSI holding near 37 without an oversold reading at the 4066 low shows downside momentum has not yet stretched
Lower highs and lower lows from 4696.74, now a two-week 4105–4217 range below EMA50.
Gold has carved lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 25 peak at 4696.74. Price is below a falling EMA50 near 4255, and the last two weeks have compressed into a 4105–4217 range. The range top lines up with the descending trendline from the September highs and the 23.6% fib of the Aug–Oct decline, and both Friday's and Monday's pushes stalled there. Wednesday's hawkish FOMC minutes drove the 2-month low at 4066.52 before easing yields and the Michigan sentiment miss lifted price back into the box.
Support: 4,105.00, 4,066.52, 3,960.00
Resistance: 4,217.00, 4,255.00, 4,399.53
What it said to watch
D1 close above the 4217 range top and descending trendline opens the EMA50 near 4255 and the 38.2% fib around 4307
Failure to hold the 4105 range floor and the 4066 2-month low extends the lower-low chain toward the 3960 summer base
Only a recovery through the 4399.53 swing high (Sep 18) would break the lower-high sequence
US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2%) is the main catalyst for a range break, with Waller Tue and Bowman Wed speaking beforehand