Higher lows under flat 4175-76 cap, contracting range.
Monday's slide from 4217 bottomed at the 4154.71 monday low in the first hour of NY as the oil-driven USD surge pushed DXY to a 17-month high. Since then the rising lows (4158.8, 4160.1, 4163.4, 4166.6) have pressed price into a flat 4175-76 cap, with the early-Asia spike to 4175.94 rejected at that session high. RSI(14) is neutral near 58, and price sits between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements of the drop.
Support: 4,166.64, 4,160.08, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.94, 4,180.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4175.94 session high breaks the cap and opens the 4178.6 38.2% fib and 4180.13 swing high
Break of the rising lows trendline and the 4166.64 asia low exposes the 4160.08 swing low, then the 4154.71 monday low
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift USD and hike pricing ahead of Wed CPI
Gold was rejected at 4217 in Monday's Asia session and slid about 60 dollars through London and NY to a 4154.7 day low as the oil-driven USD push to a 17-month high weighed. Since then rising lows (4154.7, 4160.1 swing low, 4166.6) have compressed price under a 4175–4176 range top, and the early Tuesday Asia session is testing that cap with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 4,166.60, 4,160.10, 4,154.70
Resistance: 4,176.00, 4,180.10, 4,186.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4176 range top breaks the compression and exposes the 4180.1 swing high, then the 4186 fib 50% of the 4217–4155 drop
Loss of the 4166.6 asia low and the rising lows trendline reopens the 4160.1 swing low and 4154.7 day low
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC, London morning) could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
4155–4175 band since NY low; higher lows riding a rising trendline.
Monday's Asia high at 4217 reversed through London into a 4154.71 NY low as oil and a 17-month-high USD weighed. Since then gold has compressed below the 4175 range top with higher lows, and the new Asia session has faded to a 4166.64 session low, pressing the rising trendline near 4168 with RSI(14) neutral around 49.
Support: 4,166.64, 4,163.37, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.45, 4,180.13
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline and the 4163.37 higher low exposes the 4154.71 NY low
Break of the 4175.45 range top opens the path to the 4180.13 swing high and the 38.2% retrace of the Asia high–NY low drop near 4178.6
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift this read; Wed CPI at 12:30 UTC is the larger catalyst
Higher lows 4154.7/4160.1/4163.4 against a flat 4175 range cap.
Gold failed under the 4,200 psych level after Monday's Asia spike to 4217. It then bled roughly 1.5% through London into a 4154.7 Monday low during NY, as oil-driven USD strength and higher Fed-hike odds weighed. Since then it has carved higher lows at 4160.1 and 4163.4 under a 4175.4 range cap, and early Tuesday Asia trade sits at 4169 on the rising-lows line with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 4,163.40, 4,160.10, 4,154.70
Resistance: 4,175.40, 4,180.10
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4175.4 range cap breaks the compression and opens the 4180.1 swing high
Loss of the rising-lows line and the 4163.4 higher low exposes the 4160.1 swing low and 4154.7 Monday low
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could break the range before London; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC remains the larger event risk
Higher lows inside a 4160–4175 range after the Monday selloff.
Monday's Asia spike to 4217.25 reversed into a steady London-NY slide to a 4154.71 day low as the USD pushed to YTD highs on oil and hawkish Fed talk. Since then, higher lows at 4158.84 and 4160.08 have built a 4160–4175 range capped by the 4175.45 NY high. Early Asia opened with a small gap to 4174.56 that is fading, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 50.
Support: 4,160.08, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.45, 4,180.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4175.45 ny high opens the 38.2% fib near 4178.6 and the 4180.13 london high
Loss of the 4160.08 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 4154.71 day low
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC Tue, around London open, could break the range; US CPI Wed is the larger event risk
4155–4175 range after the sell-off from 4217, rising lows.
Monday's Asia spike to 4217.25 reversed into a steady London/NY sell-off to the 4154.71 session low, as oil, a firm USD and hawkish Fed repricing weighed on gold. Higher lows at 4158.84, 4160.08 and 4163.37 have since built a base under the 4175 range top. The new Asia session opened slightly higher at 4174.56, with price capped below the range top and the 38.2% fib, RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 4,163.37, 4,158.84, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.45, 4,180.13, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4175.45 range top exposes the 4180.13 swing high and the 38.2% fib near 4178.6
Break of the 4163.37 higher low and the rising support line returns focus to the 4154.71 session low
Loss of 4154.71 resumes the downtrend leg; 4200 round number is the upper reference above the swing high
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift the read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
Monday's Asia spike to 4217.25 failed and gold slid about $60 through London into the NY open, as oil above $93 and hawkish Fed repricing lifted the USD. The day low printed at 4154.71. Since then, higher lows at the 4160.08 ny low and the 4163.37 swing low have formed under a 4175.45 range top, with early Asia trading at 4172 near the top of that range.
Support: 4,163.37, 4,160.08, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.45, 4,180.13, 4,188.56
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4175.45 range top breaks the consolidation and opens the 4178.6 fib 38.2% and the 4180.13 prior high, with the 4188.56 weekly open above
Failure to hold the 4163.37 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 4160.08 ny low and the 4154.71 day low
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC during London could shift USD and the range read
US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC is the main event risk; pre-CPI positioning may keep the range compressed
22:03 UTC
Downtrend from Asian high, basing late NY · RSI 58 · price 4,171.65
Higher-low chain off 4154.71 compressing under 4175 swing high.
Asian session rejection at the 4217 Monday high gave way to a London-NY slide to the 4154.71 session low as oil and a firm USD weighed. Since then a higher low sequence (4158.84, 4160.08, 4163.37) has squeezed price under the 4175.45 swing high late in NY. Price is back above EMA20 and sitting on the 23.6% fib, RSI(14) near 58, with the weekend gap fill at 4195 untouched.
Support: 4,163.37, 4,160.08, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.45, 4,179.55, 4,195.03
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4175.45 swing high opens the 4179.55 asian low and the 38.2% fib near 4178.6
Break of the rising lows trendline and the 4163.37 higher low returns focus to the 4160.08 swing low and 4154.71 session low
Gap fill at 4195 stays open unless price clears the asian low
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) during London could shift this read ahead of Wed CPI
Higher lows under a flat 4175 cap since the NY-open low.
The Asia peak at 4217.25 reversed as oil and a USD at YTD highs weighed, with London breaking the Asian range low and the NY open printing the day low at 4154.71. Since then the market has carved rising lows at 4158.84, 4160.08 and 4163.37 under a flat range top at 4175.45. Late in the NY session, price is pressing that cap and sitting on EMA50, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 4,163.37, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.45, 4,180.13
What it said to watch
A close above the 4175.45 range top breaks the post-low compression and opens the 4180.13 london high, near the 38.2% fib.
A break of the rising lows trendline and the 4163.37 higher low returns focus to the 4154.71 day low.
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and Wednesday's US CPI could materially shift this read.
21:32 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY low · RSI 60 · price 4,171.65
Higher lows off 4154.71, compressed under 4172.83 range top.
Gold reversed from the 4217.25 Asia high and broke the asian low in London as oil and a firmer USD lifted hike odds, bottoming at the 4154.71 day low in early NY. Since then it has printed a higher low chain at 4158.84, 4160.08 and 4163.37, and late NY is pressing the 4172.83 range top in thin post-rollover trade.
Support: 4,163.37, 4,160.08, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,172.83, 4,179.55, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4172.83 range top opens the 38.2% fib near 4178.60 and the 4179.55 asian low
Break below the 4163.37 higher low and the rising support line returns focus to the 4154.71 day low
Recapture of the asian low would put the 4200 round number back in view
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) is the next scheduled catalyst ahead of Wed CPI
Lower highs from 4217 Asia high; higher lows since NY low, compressing under 4172–4175.
Gold hit the 4217.25 Asia session high, then reversed through London as oil and hawkish Fed comments drove the USD to YTD highs. The decline bottomed at the 4154.71 day low in the first hour of NY. Since then, higher lows at 4158.84, 4160.08 and the 4163.37 higher low have pushed price back under the 4172.83 late high and 4175.45 ny high, now post-NY close.
Support: 4,163.37, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,172.83, 4,175.45, 4,180.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4175.45 ny high opens the 38.2% fib near 4178.6 and the 4180.13 swing high
Break of the 4163.37 higher low and rising trendline exposes the 4154.71 day low
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift the read ahead of Wed CPI
21:06 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, stalling in late session · RSI 60 · price 4,171.65
Lower highs from 4217; higher lows inside 4155–4175 consolidation.
The Asia-session spike to 4217 reversed through London as the USD pushed to YTD highs on oil and hawkish Fed talk, and early NY printed the day low at 4154.71. Since then gold has built higher lows inside a 4155–4175 consolidation and is now pressing the 4172.8 swing high in thin late-session trade. RSI(14) is near 60 and price sits just above EMA20/50.
Support: 4,163.37, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,172.83, 4,175.45, 4,180.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4175.5 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 38.2% fib near 4178.6 and the 4180 lower high
Failure to hold the 4163.4 higher low and the rising trendline puts the 4154.7 day low back in play
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift the USD-driven read; Wednesday's CPI is the bigger event risk
20:48 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing in late NY · RSI 55 · price 4,170.47
Higher lows inside a 4158–4176 NY consolidation.
Gold reversed from the 4217 Asia spike and broke the 4179.55 Asian low in London, printing the 4154.71 session low at the London-NY transition as a firmer USD and oil-driven hike pricing weighed. NY has compressed into a consolidation with higher lows along a rising trendline (4154.71→4163.37). Late in the NY session, price is pressing the late NY high at 4172.83 just under EMA50, a touch above the 23.6% level of the down-leg fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 4,163.37, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,172.83, 4,175.45, 4,179.55
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4175.45 NY high breaks the consolidation top and exposes the 4179.55 Asian low near the 38.2% down-leg fib
Loss of the 4163.37 swing low and the rising trendline puts the 4154.71 session low back in play
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift the read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
20:32 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, stalling in late NY · RSI 56 · price 4,171.04
Higher lows compressing under NY high since 4154.7 low.
Gold reversed from the 4217 Asia high through London as oil-driven USD strength and hawkish Fed talk weighed, bottoming at the 4154.7 session low around the NY open. Since then a chain of higher lows has compressed price beneath the 4175.4 NY high, near the 23.6% retrace of the 4217-4154.7 drop, with RSI(14) neutral at 56 in thin late-NY trade.
Support: 4,163.40, 4,154.70
Resistance: 4,175.40, 4,180.10
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4175.4 NY high breaks the compression and brings the 4180.1 swing high and 38.2% retrace (~4178.6) into play
Loss of the 4163.4 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 4154.7 session low
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) is the next scheduled catalyst ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
20:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling into a range · RSI 58 · price 4,169.46
Lower highs from 4217 to a 4154.71 low; higher lows since in a 4155–4175 range.
The early-Asia spike to 4217.25 reversed as oil-driven USD strength and hawkish Fed talk weighed on gold. London broke the Asian low at 4179.55 and NY printed a 4154.71 session low. Since then, late NY has compressed into a 4155–4175 range, with rising lows at 4158.84 and the 4160.08 higher low; price is holding near the 23.6% retrace of the 4217–4155 drop, under the range top.
Support: 4,160.08, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.45, 4,179.55, 4,186.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 4175.45 range top puts the 4179.55 asian low and the 4186 fib 50% back in play
Break of the rising lows trendline and the 4160.08 higher low exposes the 4154.71 session low
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) lands in the next London session and could break the range
Post-selloff compression: higher lows from 4154.7, lower highs from 4175.5.
Gold rejected 4217 in Asia and London broke the Asian low at 4179.6, with the drop extending to a 4154.7 day low as WTI above $93 firmed the USD. Late NY trade is compressing between rising lows (4154.7, 4158.8, the 4160.1 ny low) and lower highs at the 4175.5 swing high and the 4172.8 ny high, still below the 23.6% fib at ~4169.5.
Support: 4,160.08, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,172.83, 4,175.45, 4,179.55
What it said to watch
Close above 4172.8 ny high and the 4175.5 swing high breaks the lower-highs line; 4179.6 asian low / 38.2% fib next
Loss of 4160.1 ny low and the rising lows line exposes the 4154.7 day low
Waller speaks Tue 07:45 UTC; oil and Middle East headlines could shift this read before Wed CPI
19:32 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, stalling in late NY · RSI 47 · price 4,166.13
Lower highs from 4217.25 into a 4154.71 low, now compressing on higher lows.
Gold met rejection at the 4217.25 Asian high as WTI above $93 firmed the USD, then carved lower highs into a 4154.71 session low near the NY open. Late-NY trade has compressed between a 4160.08 higher low and a 4172.83 swing high. Price sits under EMA20 and below the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-NY drop near 4178.6.
Support: 4,160.08, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,172.83, 4,175.45, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4175.45 ny high breaks the compression and brings the 38.2% retrace near 4178.6 into view
Failure to hold the 4160.08 higher low and the higher-lows line reopens the 4154.71 session low
4200 round number is the range top in the digest, rejected Monday at 4217
Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and Wed CPI could materially shift this read
19:24 UTC
Downtrend, compressing late in NY · RSI 49 · price 4,166.13
Lower highs vs higher lows inside a 4155–4175 range below the broken Asian low.
The Asia spike to 4217.25 reversed through London as Middle East escalation pushed oil higher and firmed the USD. Price broke the 4179.55 Asian low and set a day low at 4154.71 early in NY. Since then gold has compressed between higher lows near 4160 and lower highs at 4172.83–4175.45, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,160.08, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,172.83, 4,175.45, 4,179.55
What it said to watch
A break of the 4160.08 higher low, then the 4154.71 day low, resumes the downtrend leg
An M15 close above the 4175.45 NY high opens the 4179.55 Asian low, near the 38.2% fib of the asia-ny drop
A further lower high below 4172.83 keeps the compression tilted lower
Waller speaks Tue 07:45 UTC. US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk to this range.
Gold could not hold above 4200 after the 4217 Asia high and slid to the 4154.71 day low at 12:30 UTC as USD and yields firmed. Since then it has held a 4155–4175 range in holiday-thinned NY trade. The session low at 4160.08 printed a third higher low while highs keep stepping lower, and price sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 4,160.08, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.45, 4,180.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4175 range top exposes the 4180 swing high and the 38.2% fib near 4178.6
Break of the 4160 session low and the higher-lows line puts the 4154.71 day low back in play
Lower highs line near 4175 capping again keeps the range intact
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read ahead of Wed CPI
Asian range broken lower, 4155–4175 base with higher lows.
Gold gapped lower at the weekly open and reversed from the 4217 Asian high as the dollar and yields firmed on hawkish-Fed bets. London broke the asian low at 4179.55 and the move extended to a 4154.71 session low. Since then, late NY in holiday-thinned trade has held a 4155–4175 consolidation with higher lows, price hugging EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 4,160.08, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.45, 4,179.55
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4175.45 range top opens the asian low at 4179.55, near the 38.2% fib
Failure to hold the 4160.08 higher low exposes the 4154.71 session low
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4217 Asia peak; higher lows since 4154.7 day low, coiling 4160–4175.
Gold peaked at 4217 early in the Asia session, then slid through London as USD and yields firmed. It broke the Asian low and set a 4154.7 day low just before the NY open. Late NY is a coil of rising lows (4158.8, then the 4160.1 higher low) pressing toward the 4175 NY high, with the 38.2% fib of the drop and the 4179.6 Asian low just above; RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and price is sitting just under the EMA50.
Support: 4,160.10, 4,154.70
Resistance: 4,175.40, 4,179.60
What it said to watch
Close above the 4175 NY high and the 4179.6 Asian low (38.2% fib) would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 4160 higher low and the rising lows line reopens the 4154.7 day low
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC near the London open could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
18:17 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, basing late NY · RSI 56 · price 4,171.11
Tight 4154–4175 range with higher lows below range top.
Asia ran to 4217.25 but failed to hold above the 4200 round number as USD and yields firmed. London broke the 4179.55 asian low and the drop reached a 4154.71 session low around the NY open. Late NY, after London close, price is in a 4154–4175 range with higher lows at 4158.84 and 4160.08 on a rising trendline, pressing the range top near the 23.6% fib with RSI(14) mid-50s and EMA50 just overhead.
Support: 4,160.08, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.45, 4,179.55, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4175.45 range top opens the 4179.55 asian low, near the 38.2% fib
Break of the 4160.08 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 4154.71 session low
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend from Asia high, now stalling · RSI 55 · price 4,171.00
Lower highs into 4154.71 day low, then higher-low compression below 4175.
The early-Asia spike to 4217.25 faded back below 4200 as the USD firmed, and a lower-high grind ran into a 4154.71 day low during the London-NY transition. Late NY trade has since compressed into a 4154–4175 range with higher lows at 4158.84 and 4160.08. Price is pressing the range top, sitting above EMA20 and just under EMA50 near 4173.
Support: 4,160.08, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.45, 4,180.13, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4175.45 range top opens the 38.2% fib of the Asia drop (~4178.6) and the 4180.13 swing high
Loss of the 4160.08 higher low and the 4154.71 day low resumes the lower-low sequence
The 4200 round number marks where the Asia spike failed; a reclaim would undo the day's drop
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and Wed US CPI (0.6% m/m f/c) could materially shift this read
17:47 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, now stalling · RSI 54 · price 4,169.36
Late-NY compression 4160–4171 with higher lows above the 4154.71 day low.
The early-Asia push to 4217.25 failed above $4,200 as the USD firmed and yields held up, and gold ground lower through London to a 4154.71 day low just after 12:00 UTC. Late in the NY session it is compressing beneath a 4171 session cap, with higher lows at 4158.84 and the 4160.08 swing low. Price sits near the 23.6% retracement of the Asia-NY leg, below the Asian low at 4179.55.
Support: 4,160.08, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,171.00, 4,175.45, 4,179.55
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4171 session cap and the 4175.45 NY high reopens the 4179.55 Asian low and the 38.2% of the Asia-NY leg near 4178.6
Loss of the 4160.08 swing low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 4154.71 day low
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and pre-CPI de-risking ahead of Wed's US CPI could shift this read
17:32 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, now compressing · RSI 46 · price 4,166.81
Higher lows vs lower highs inside a 4155–4175 NY range.
The early-Asia push to 4217 was a false break above the 4200 round number. Gold then slid through London as the USD firmed and swept to a 4154.71 NY low before compressing in thin holiday trade, with a 4160.08 swing low under lower highs near 4171. RSI(14) is neutral at 46 and price sits just under EMA20, with the higher-low trendline still intact.
Support: 4,160.08, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,171.00, 4,175.45, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Close below the 4160 swing low and the higher-low trendline reopens the 4154.71 NY low
Close above the 4171 lower high and the 4175.45 NY high brings the 38.2% fib of the Asia high-NY low drop near 4179 into view
4200 round number remains the cap after the Asia rejection
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC, then Wed US CPI, could materially shift this read
17:18 UTC
Downtrend from the Asia high, now compressing · RSI 46 · price 4,167.96
Lower highs below 4175, shallow higher lows above the 4154.71 day low.
The Asia rally to 4217.25 was rejected above the 4200 psych level. London then broke the Asian low at 4179.55 as the USD firmed, and the move reached a 4154.71 day low at 12:30 UTC. Through NY hours price has compressed between the 4160 ny low and the 4175 ny high, with lower highs and RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 4,160.00, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.40, 4,179.55, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
A close below the 4160 ny low exposes the 4154.71 day low and breaks the higher-low sequence
A close above the 4175 ny high breaks the lower-high trendline; the 4179.55 asian low is next overhead
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could shift hike pricing and break the NY compression; thin US-holiday liquidity today
17:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, momentum fading into a coil · RSI 41 · price 4,165.47
Lower highs from 4175 against rising lows from 4154.71, tightening consolidation.
The early-Asia spike to 4217.25 failed to hold above 4200 as the USD firmed and yields stayed high. Gold bled lower through London to a 4154.71 day low ahead of the NY open. Since then, a lower high near 4171 and rising lows at 4158.84 and the 4160 swing low have compressed price between a descending trendline and a rising trendline in thin US-holiday trade, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 4,160.08, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,170.97, 4,175.45, 4,178.60
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4171 lower high breaks the descending trendline; the 4175.45 swing high and the fib 38.2% at 4178.6 sit next.
Failure to hold the 4160 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 4154.71 day low; a close below it extends the lower-low sequence.
Liquidity is thin around the US holiday. Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts that could shift this read.
Lower highs under falling trendline since Asia; 4155–4159 lows holding.
Gold failed above $4,200 after the Asian spike to 4217.25. It broke the asian low at 4179.55 in London as the USD firmed. Lower highs have been rejected at the falling trendline at 4175.45 (the ny high) and the 4170.97 swing high, and price is drifting toward the 4158.84 swing low and the 4154.71 session low late in a thin, holiday-affected NY session.
Support: 4,158.84, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,170.97, 4,175.45, 4,179.55
What it said to watch
M15 close above the falling trendline and the 4170.97 swing high breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 4154.71 session low extends the lower-low sequence from Asia
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt yields and the USD in thin holiday trade
Reclaim of the 4175.45 ny high puts the 4179.55 asian low and the fib 38.2% near 4178.6 back in play
Lower highs from the Asia spike; NY compressing in a 4159–4171 box.
Gold's early-Asia spike to 4217.25 failed above $4,200, and the slide has since printed a chain of lower highs. London broke the 4179.55 Asian low as the USD drew a Middle East bid. NY has compressed into a 4159–4171 box above the 4154.71 day low; the 4158.84 dip held as a higher low, and the 4175.45 swing high sits just under the 38.2% of the slide fib (4178.6).
Support: 4,158.84, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,170.75, 4,175.45, 4,179.55
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4170.75 range top would press the lower-highs trendline and the 4175.45 swing high
Reclaim of the 4179.55 Asian low would unwind the London breakdown
A break of the 4158.84 higher low reopens the 4154.71 day low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read in thin US-holiday trade
Lower highs from 4217.25; NY higher low at 4158.84 inside a 4155–4175 box.
Gold's Asia spike to 4217.25 saw rejection above the 4200 round number, and price bled lower through London to a 4154.71 session low as the USD firmed. NY has printed a higher low at 4158.84, but price is capped below the 4175.45 swing high and a 4170.97 lower high. Price sits under both EMAs with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 4,158.84, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,170.97, 4,175.45, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4175.45 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the fib 38.2% at 4178.6 into view
Failure at the 4158.84 higher low and the 4154.71 session low would extend the downtrend
Fed's Hammack speaks at 16:50 UTC. Thin US-holiday liquidity can exaggerate the reaction
15:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing · RSI 48 · price 4,168.03
Lower highs from 4217; NY higher low at 4158.84.
The Asia peak at 4217.25 failed back below 4200 as the USD found bids. London then broke the Asian low at 4179.55, and NY extended to a session low at 4154.71. Price is now compressing between a higher low at 4158.84 and the NY high at 4175.40, under a falling trendline, in thin US-holiday liquidity.
Support: 4,158.84, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.40, 4,179.55
What it said to watch
M15 close above the NY high at 4175.40 and the falling trendline exposes the broken Asian low at 4179.55, near the 38.2% of the Asia-high to NY-low drop
Failure to hold the higher low at 4158.84 reopens the session low at 4154.71
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger range-breaker
15:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 44 · price 4,166.76
Lower highs from 4217; higher low at 4158.84 inside 4154–4175.
Gold failed to hold above the 4200 round number after the Asia spike to 4217.25. London broke the Asian low at 4179.55 as the USD found bids and yields stayed elevated. NY extended to a 4154.71 day low before a higher low at 4158.84, and price is now compressing under a falling trendline near 4171 in holiday-thin liquidity.
Support: 4,158.84, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.45, 4,179.55, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 4175.45 swing high breaks the falling trendline and opens the 4179.55 asian low, which aligns with the 38.2% fib
Failure to hold the 4158.84 higher low re-exposes the 4154.71 day low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could shift hike odds and this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main range-breaker for the 4200 round number cap
Lower highs from 4180 against a 4158.84 higher low.
Gold spiked to 4217.25 in Asia on ETF demand but failed above 4200. London then broke the Asian low at 4179.55 as the USD firmed, extending the drop to a 4154.71 session low. NY hours are compressing between a 4158.84 higher low and the 4175.45 swing high near the 23.6% retracement, with price on EMA20, RSI(14) near 49 and liquidity thinned by the US holiday.
Support: 4,158.84, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.45, 4,179.55
What it said to watch
Close above the 4175.45 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline; the 4179.55 Asian low is the next cap
Loss of the 4158.84 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and reopens the 4154.71 session low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC (19:50 broker) could jolt the thin holiday tape
15:03 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 4,164.18
Lower-high chain from 4217, NY range 4155–4175.
Asia spiked to 4217.25 but failed to hold above 4200. London broke the Asian low at 4179.55 and stepped down to a 4154.71 session low as the USD firmed. NY is compressing between that low and the 4175.45 lower high, with a 4158.84 higher low and RSI(14) near 41 in holiday-thinned trade.
Support: 4,158.84, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.45, 4,179.55
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4175.45 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 4179.55 Asian low and 38.2% fib (~4178.6) sit just above
Loss of the 4158.84 higher low reopens the 4154.71 session low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read in thin US-holiday liquidity
Lower highs since early-Asia peak; higher low forming above 4154.7.
Gold was rejected above the $4,200 round number after the early-Asia spike to 4217.3. London then broke the Asian low at 4179.6 and extended a lower-high, lower-low chain to the 4154.7 session low as the USD firmed and yields held up. Early NY, thinned by the US holiday, has printed a higher low at 4158.8 under the falling trendline and the 4175.4 lower high, with RSI(14) near 44 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,158.84, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.45, 4,179.55
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4175.4 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 4179.6 Asian low, which coincides with the fib 38.2%.
Failure to hold the 4158.8 higher low, and a close below the 4154.7 session low, extends the lower-low chain.
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, about 2h out, could shift hike pricing and this read. US CPI on Wed is the larger risk for the $4,200 round number cap.
Lower-high chain from 4217 Asia peak; NY low holding just above day low.
Gold's Asia spike to 4217 on ETF demand and a softer USD was rejected above 4200. As the USD firmed, London broke the 4180 asian low and NY extended to a 4154.71 day low. The bounce stalled at the 4175 lower high under the descending tl and below the fib 38.2%, with RSI(14) near 41 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 4,158.84, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.45, 4,179.55
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4158.84 ny low and a break of the 4154.71 day low extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 4175.45 lower high and the descending tl breaks the sequence; the 4179.55 asian low and fib 38.2% (~4178.6) sit just overhead
Thin US-holiday trade; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt this read
Lower highs from the Asia high; London broke below the Asian range.
A lower-high chain from the 4217 Asia high carried London below the Asian range. Early NY spiked to a 4154.71 session low and reclaimed it, but the bounce high at 4175.4 stalled under the 38.2% fib. Price is back near the london low with RSI(14) around 40, as a firm USD on hawkish-Fed yields caps rallies in a holiday-thin US session.
Support: 4,167.40, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.40, 4,178.60, 4,180.10
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4167.4 london low reopens the 4154.71 session low
Close above the 4175.4 bounce high and 38.2% fib at 4178.6 exposes the 4180.1 lower high; a break there weakens the downtrend read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; thin US-holiday liquidity can exaggerate spikes
Lower highs since Asia peak; bounce capped at 61.8% retrace.
The Asia spike to 4217 reversed as the USD firmed on hawkish-Fed yields. London broke the asian low at 4179.6 and extended to a 4154.7 session low by early NY. The bounce nudged above the falling trendline but stalled at 4175.5, the fib 61.8 retrace of the London drop, and price is holding above the 4169.4 pullback low in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 4,169.40, 4,162.50, 4,154.70
Resistance: 4,175.50, 4,179.60, 4,188.20
What it said to watch
A close above 4179.6 (asian low) would break the lower-high sequence and put the 4188.2 swing high back in view
Rejection at the 4175.5 fib 61.8 followed by a loss of the 4169.4 pullback low would expose the 4162.5 base and the 4154.7 session low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt yields and the USD during thin holiday liquidity
Lower highs from the Asia high; descending trendline broken early NY.
Monday's Asia spike to 4217.25 faded through London as the dollar firmed on the hawkish Fed outlook. Lower highs carried gold to a 4154.71 session low around the NY open. The early-NY rebound has reclaimed Friday's low at 4168.57 and broken the descending trendline, with price now pressing the swing high near 4180, close to the 38.2% fib.
Support: 4,168.57, 4,162.96, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,180.13, 4,185.98, 4,192.82
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4180.13 swing high clears the 38.2% fib and opens the 50% fib at 4185.98, then the 4192.82 lower high
A return below the 4168.57 friday low undercuts the trendline breakout and puts the 4162.96 higher low and 4154.71 session low back in focus
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, on thin US-holiday liquidity, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 4217 Asian high; price testing a break of the falling trendline.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4217 Asian high. London broke the Asian range low, and the NY open extended to a 4154.71 session low as USD firmed on the hawkish Fed outlook. The rebound has reclaimed the 4168 prior pivot and is poking above the falling trendline, stalling under the 4180 swing high with RSI(14) back near 48.
Support: 4,168.00, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,180.13, 4,186.00, 4,192.82
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4180 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the fib 50% at 4186, then the 4192.8 lower high, into view
Slip back below the 4168 prior pivot puts the 4154.71 session low back in play
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; thin US-holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves around these levels
Lower highs from Asian high; sweep of prior low reclaimed.
Lower highs since the 4217 Asian high as the dollar firmed on the hawkish Fed outlook. London extended the slide, then a sweep of the 4167 prior low into the 4154.71 day low was quickly reclaimed. Price now sits just under the falling trendline and the 4173 lower high in thin, holiday-affected London-NY transition trade, with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 4,167.36, 4,162.46, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,173.15, 4,180.13, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4173 lower high and falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 4180 swing high
Loss of the 4162.5 pivot low reopens the 4154.71 day low; a close below it confirms a fresh lower low
4200 round number remains the cap from the Asian high fade
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read; US holiday keeps liquidity thin
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian high, Friday low broken.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4217 Asian high. London stalled at Friday's 4168.6 low before an early-NY flush broke it and tagged 4154.7, where a long lower wick shows a rejection at the session low; price is now holding near 4165 with RSI(14) around 38. A firmer dollar on hawkish-Fed pricing into Wednesday's CPI has capped rebounds, in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 4,154.70, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,168.60, 4,173.20, 4,178.60
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4168.6 friday low would mark the break as a failed extension
Push through the 4173.2 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain; 4178.6 is the 38.2% fib of the Asian-high leg
Failure to hold the 4154.7 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4150 round number
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read in thin holiday liquidity
12:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 37 · price 4,165.84
LH/LL chain from 4217 Asian high; wick off 4154.71 session low.
Gold faded from the 4217.25 Asian high as the dollar firmed on the hawkish Fed outlook, printing lower highs at the 4192.82 swing high and the 4180.13 lower high through London. Into the NY open, in thin US-holiday trade, price pushed to a 4154.71 session low before a sharp wick rejection. It now sits beneath the broken lows near 4168.8 and back toward the 4150 round number zone, with RSI(14) near 37 and well short of oversold.
Support: 4,154.71, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,168.80, 4,180.13, 4,192.82
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4168.8 broken lows would undercut the breakdown
A close above the 4180.13 lower high, near the 38.2% fib, breaks the lower-high chain and the descending line
Failure to hold 4154.71 session low exposes the 4150 round number
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read; US CPI Wed is the larger event risk
12:32 UTC
Downtrend, extending into NY open · RSI 31 · price 4,161.20
Lower highs and lower lows from the 4217 Asian high; London range floor broken.
Gold has bled steadily from the 4217 Asian high as USD firmed on the hawkish Fed outlook in thin holiday trade. The decline printed lower highs at the 4180 swing high and the 4173 lower high, then broke the 4167 broken low (and Friday's 4168.6 low) into the NY open, taking out the session low near 4161. RSI(14) sits around 31, soft but not yet oversold.
Support: 4,161.00, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,167.40, 4,173.20, 4,180.10
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4167 broken low would mark the break as a false break
Reclaiming the 4173 lower high and the descending trendline is needed to end the lower-high sequence; the 4180 swing high caps above
Acceptance below the 4161 session low keeps the 4150 round number in view
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian high, basing at session low.
Gold has printed lower highs and lower lows from the 4217 Asian high as the dollar firmed on the hawkish Fed outlook. London pressed to a 4167.4 session low, just under Friday's 4168.6 low. With RSI(14) near 40 and price below both EMAs, the 4173.2 lower high and 4180.1 swing high are capping the descending trendline into the London-NY transition.
Support: 4,167.40, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,173.20, 4,180.10, 4,188.20
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4167.4 session low extends the lower-low chain and exposes the 4150 round number
Close above the 4180.1 swing high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 4188.2 London high, near the 38.2% retrace of the Asian high-low move, would neutralise the Europe sell-off
US holiday keeps NY liquidity thin; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read
11:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 38 · price 4,169.66
Lower-high chain from 4217 Asian high, base at 4168.6-4169.
Gold reversed from the 4217.3 Asian high and broke the Asian range low as the dollar firmed into London. Price is printing lower highs along the trendline and is retesting the friday low at 4168.6 for a third time this session, with RSI(14) near 38 and well clear of oversold. Monday trade is thin with the US on holiday.
Support: 4,168.60, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,180.10, 4,193.00, 4,217.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4168.6 friday low confirms a lower-low and opens the 4150 round number
Close above the 4180.1 lower high breaks the trendline and the lower-high chain; the fib 50% at 4193.0 is the next cap, with the 4217.3 asian high beyond
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read in thin holiday conditions
11:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 37 · price 4,170.53
LH/LL chain from 4217; London broke the Asian low, now basing at 4168-4169.
Gold has carved lower highs since the 4217 Asia peak as the dollar firmed. London broke the Asian low at 4179.5 and the 10:30 UTC retest stalled at 4180.1 under the falling trendline. Price is now sitting on Friday's low at 4168.6, which held twice this morning, in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 4,168.60
Resistance: 4,180.10, 4,188.20, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4168.6 friday low extends the lower-low sequence
Close back above the 4180 asian low and the trendline breaks the downtrend read; 4188.2 lower high next
4200 round number aligns with the 61.8% fib of the Asia-London leg
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the read in thin holiday liquidity
11:17 UTC
Downtrend, testing the day low · RSI 38 · price 4,172.06
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4217 Asia high.
The Asia spike to 4217 faded into a steady lower-high, lower-low sequence through London as USD firmed on hawkish Fed pricing. Price was rejected at the 4180.1 lower high and is retesting the 4168.8 day low, which lines up with Friday's low, with RSI(14) near 38 and not yet oversold.
Support: 4,168.80
Resistance: 4,180.10, 4,188.20, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4168.8 day low extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 4180.1 lower high and the lower highs trendline breaks the sequence, with the 4188.2 london high next
The 50% retracement of the Asia-London drop (~4193) sits just under the 4200 round number
US holiday liquidity is thin, and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read
11:04 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, bounce stalling · RSI 41 · price 4,176.74
Lower highs since 4217; Asian range broken lower.
Asia ran to 4217.25 before London broke the Asian low near 4180 and extended to a 4168.7 session low, matching Friday's low, as the USD firmed on hawkish Fed pricing. The bounce stalled at the broken Asian low, which also sits at the fib 23.6 retracement, keeping the lower-high chain intact. RSI(14) is near 41, with price under both EMAs.
Support: 4,168.70
Resistance: 4,180.00, 4,188.20, 4,193.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4180 (asian low / fib 23.6) negates the retest-from-below read, with the 4188.2 london high as the next cap
Reclaiming the 4188.2 london high exposes the fib 50% at 4193.0
A break of the 4168.7 session low, also Friday's low, extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC in NY hours. Thin US-holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves ahead of Wed CPI
Lower highs since Asia peak; Asian range broken lower, retest from below.
Gold faded from the 4217 Asia high as the dollar found buyers on the hawkish Fed outlook in early Europe. The London session broke the 4179.55 Asian low and printed a 4168.77 session low next to Friday's 4168.57 low. The bounce off that low is now retesting the broken Asian low from below, at the 23.6% fib and just under EMA20, in thin holiday trade.
Support: 4,172.25, 4,168.77
Resistance: 4,179.55, 4,188.17, 4,192.82
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4179.55 asian low and the 23.6% fib reopens the 4188.17 lower high
A move through the 4192.82 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 4172.25 higher low exposes the 4168.77 session low; a break there confirms a lower-low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read in thin holiday conditions
10:33 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 34 · price 4,174.58
Lower-high/lower-low chain below broken Asian range low.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4217.25 Asia high. London broke the Asian low at 4179.55 as the dollar firmed on the hawkish Fed outlook, and the session low at 4168.77 now sits almost exactly on Friday's 4168.57 low. Mid-London, price is basing just above that floor with RSI(14) near 34, while the 4188.17 London high caps the intraday chain.
Support: 4,168.77, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,179.55, 4,188.17, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4168.77 session low and friday low extends the lower-low chain
Close back above the 4179.55 asian low invalidates the range break and puts the 4188.17 london high back in view
Recovery through the london high brings the 50% retracement of the Asia high–session low leg (~4193) and the 4200 round number into play
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, with thin US holiday liquidity, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; London broke the Asian low and is testing Friday's low.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4217 Asian-session peak. London broke the 4179.5 Asian low and extended to 4168.8, stalling at Friday's low of 4168.6 as the dollar firmed on the Fed's hawkish outlook. Price sits below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 36, soft but not stretched, in mid-London.
Support: 4,168.60
Resistance: 4,179.50, 4,192.80, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4179.5 Asian low would turn the London breakdown into a false break, putting the 4192.8 swing high and 50% fib of the 4217-4169 drop back in play
Failure to hold the 4168.6 Friday low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the two-session floor
Only a recovery through the 4200 round number would undo the session's lower-high structure
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, with NY liquidity thinned by the US holiday, could shift this read
Lower highs since the 4217 Asia high; Asian range broken to the downside in London.
Gold has faded from the 4217.25 session high set in Asia as the dollar firmed on the Fed's hawkish outlook. London broke below the asian low at 4179.5 and kept printing lower highs, and price is now testing the friday low near 4168.6 with RSI(14) near 34. Thin holiday liquidity is keeping the moves choppy.
Support: 4,168.60
Resistance: 4,179.50, 4,188.20, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4168.6 friday low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 4179.5 asian low and a break of the lower-highs trendline would neutralise the downtrend read
4188.2 lower high lines up with the 38.2% retrace of the 4217–4169 drop, an area to watch for rejection or break
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the USD and this read
09:48 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, RSI near 30 · RSI 29 · price 4,170.81
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4217 Asia high, Asian low broken in London.
Monday's Asia spike to 4217.25 failed, and price has printed lower highs and lower lows since. London broke the 4179.55 Asian low and pressed to a 4170.14 session low, just above the 4168.57 Friday low, as the USD firmed on the hawkish Fed outlook into Wednesday's CPI. RSI(14) is near 29 with no divergence yet; the lower-high trendline caps bounces around 4176.
Support: 4,170.14, 4,168.57, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,179.55, 4,188.17, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4168.57 Friday low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4150 round number.
Reclaiming the 4179.55 Asian low and breaking the lower-high trendline (~4176) would neutralise the downtrend read; the 4188 swing high at the 38.2% fib sits above, then the 4200 round number.
Fed's Hammack speaks at 16:50 UTC, with thin US/Japan holiday liquidity. US CPI is due Wed 12:30 UTC and could materially shift this read.
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4217 Asia high.
Gold peaked at 4217 early in the Asia session and has faded ever since. The descending trendline has capped every bounce, and the London session printed a session low at 4172.92, just above the Friday low at 4168.57, as the dollar firmed on the hawkish Fed outlook. RSI(14) is near 33 and holiday-thinned liquidity is keeping moves contained.
Support: 4,172.92, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,178.56, 4,192.82, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4178.56 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 4172.92 session low exposes the Friday low at 4168.57
Recovery through the 4192.82 swing high, roughly the 50% fib of the Asia-to-London fade, invalidates the intraday downtrend read
4200 round number is the next cap if the 4192.82 swing high gives way
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could reprice hike odds and shift this read
09:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 38 · price 4,178.01
Asian low broken in London, retest from below.
Gold peaked at 4217.25 early in the Asia session on ETF inflows and a softer USD. It then bled lower on a chain of lower highs as the dollar firmed, and London broke the 4179.55 asian low to a 4172.92 session low. Price is now retesting the asian low from below, where it meets the falling lower-highs trendline. RSI(14) sits near 38, and the 38.2% retrace of the session drop lines up with the 4188 london high.
Support: 4,172.92, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,179.55, 4,188.17, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4179.55 asian low and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the breakdown read
Rejection at the asian low retest keeps the lower-low chain intact; a break of the 4172.92 session low exposes the 4168.57 friday low
A move through the 4188.17 london high reopens the 4200 round number
Holiday-thin NY session (US, Japan and Canada closed) and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read
09:05 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 24 · price 4,175.13
Lower-high/lower-low chain; Asian range broken to the downside in London.
Asia peaked at 4217.25 and has printed a steady series of lower highs since. London broke the 4179.55 Asian low and set a london low at 4172.92 in thin holiday trade, with the digest citing hawkish Fed pricing and Iran-related USD support. RSI(14) near 24 is stretched, and the Friday low at 4168.57 sits just beneath.
Support: 4,172.92, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,179.55, 4,188.17, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4179.55 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
A break above the 4188.17 lower high, through the lower-high trendline, ends the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 4168.57 friday low extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read; the fib 50% near 4195 and the 4200 psych level sit above any recovery
Lower highs and lower lows from the 4217 Asia high.
Asia ran to a 4217.25 session high before supply pushed price back below 4200, matching the digest's read of a hawkish-Fed cap. London has extended the lower-high, lower-low chain to a 4174.88 session low under the descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 34. The Monday gap down from the 4195.03 friday close remains unfilled in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 4,174.88, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,179.55, 4,188.17, 4,195.03
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4188.17 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Price holding below the 4179.55 broken low keeps the decline intact; a break of the 4174.88 session low exposes the 4168.57 friday low
A rebound toward the 38.2% fib of the 4217–4175 drop near 4191 would test whether sellers defend it ahead of the 4195.03 friday close gap
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the read in holiday-thin liquidity
LH/LL chain from 4217.25 Asia high; London has broken below the Asian low.
Gold faded from the 4217.25 Asia high back under the 4200 round number as hawkish Fed pricing capped the move, and London has extended the slide through the 4179.55 asian low to a session low at 4174.88. Lower highs at 4192.82 and the 4188.17 london high keep the leg pointing down, with RSI(14) near 33 and not yet stretched. Friday low at 4168.57 is the next reference below.
Support: 4,174.88, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,179.55, 4,188.17, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4179.55 asian low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 4174.88 session low exposes the 4168.57 friday low
Close above the 4188.17 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 4200 round number
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC in thin US-holiday trade could shift Fed pricing and this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asia peak, early London trading below the Asian range low.
Gold's Asia spike to 4217.25 faded back below 4200 as hawkish Fed pricing capped the move. Early London has now broken the asian low at 4179.55, with lower highs at the 4192.82 swing high and the 4188.17 london high. RSI(14) near 32 is soft but not oversold, and the 4175.20 swing low and 4168.57 friday low sit just below.
Support: 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,179.55, 4,188.17, 4,192.82
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 4179.55 would mark a false break of the Asian range
Failure to hold the swing low at 4175.20 exposes the friday low at 4168.57
Close above the london high at 4188.17 breaks the lower-highs trendline; the swing high at 4192.82 aligns with the 38.2% of the Asia drop
US holiday thin liquidity and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could distort or shift this read
Lower highs from 4217 Asia high into flat session low at 4179.5.
Gold spiked to a 4217 Asia high, slipped back under the 4200 psych level and has printed a chain of lower highs into early London. It now sits on the 4179.5 session low, first tested at 05:30 UTC, with RSI(14) near 29. The fade fits the digest: a firm Fed-pricing backdrop capping gold in thin US-holiday trade ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
Support: 4,179.50, 4,168.60
Resistance: 4,188.20, 4,192.80, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4179.5 session low exposes the 4168.6 friday low
Close above the 4188.2 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain; 4192.8 swing high next
Reclaim of 4200 psych undoes the Asia-high rejection read
Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC and Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could jolt thin holiday liquidity
Lower highs off the 4217 Asia peak, compressing above the Asian low.
Asia ran to 4217.25 on the softer USD and ETF-inflow headlines, then faded below 4200 as hawkish Fed pricing capped it. Early London is boxed in a 4182–4188 band just above the 4179.55 asian low, with the london high at 4188.17 and the 4192.82 lower high capping and RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 4,179.55, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,188.17, 4,192.82, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4179.55 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4168.57 friday low
Reclaim of the 4188.17 london high and the 4192.82 lower high (near the 38.2% of the asian drop fib) breaks the lower-high sequence
4200 psych level is the first test of the drop's 50% retracement
Holiday-thin US/Japan/Canada liquidity and Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt the range
07:33 UTC
Intraday downtrend, flattening into London · RSI 34 · price 4,185.38
Lower highs from Asia peak, tight base above session low.
Gold's Asia-session push through the 4200 round number to a 4217.25 session high failed. Lower highs then took price to a 4179.55 session low before London, as hawkish Fed pricing capped the ETF-driven bid. Early London is compressing between 4181 and 4188, below the 4192.82 swing high, which stalled under the 38.2% fib of the Asia drop; RSI(14) sits near 34.
Support: 4,179.55, 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,192.82, 4,200.00, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
A break below the 4179.55 session low exposes the 4175.20 swing low and the 4168.57 friday low
A close above the 4192.82 swing high and the 38.2% fib reopens the 4200 round number
A reclaim of the 4217.25 session high would negate the false break read
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC, with holiday-thin US liquidity, could jolt yields and USD
Lower highs from the Asia spike high, compressing just above the asia low.
Asia session spiked to a 4217.25 session high on softer yields and the ETF-inflow headlines, then bled back below the 4200 psych handle in a lower-high sequence down to the 4179.55 asia low. Early London is coiling at 4183–4188 under the 4192.82 bounce high, which stalled just short of the 38.2% of the asia drop fib; RSI(14) ~36, below both EMAs.
Support: 4,179.55, 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,192.82, 4,200.00, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4179.55 asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4175.20 fri swing and 4168.57 friday low
Close above the 4192.82 bounce high puts the 50% asia drop fib and 4200 psych back in play, with the 4217.25 session high above
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Waller Tue 07:45 UTC can move yields and shift this read in US-holiday-thinned liquidity
Lower highs from 4217.25 Asia high; failed break of Friday high.
Asia ran through Friday's 4202 high to a 4217.25 asia high but gold lacked follow-through ahead of CPI. The whole overnight gain has faded back below the Monday open, with lower highs into a 4179.55 session low. The bounce is capped at the 4192.82 lower high, under the 38.2% fib, ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 4,179.55, 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,192.82, 4,200.00, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
Break of the 4179.55 session low in London exposes the 4175.20 fri swing lo and the 4168.57 friday low
M15 close above the 4192.82 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts 4200 psych back in play
Recovery above the 4217.25 asia high would cancel the false-break read
Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:33 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 33 · price 4,184.28
Failed Asia breakout above Friday's high, now lower highs and lower lows into London open.
Asia session pushed above Friday's 4202 high to a 4217.25 asia high and was rejected. The full Asia fade has taken price back below the Sunday open to a 4179.55 session low, with the bounce capped at a 4192.82 lower high just under the 38.2% retrace. RSI(14) sits near 33 as gold lacks follow-through ahead of US CPI.
Support: 4,179.55, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,192.82, 4,200.00, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
Break below the 4179.55 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4168.57 friday low
M15 close above the 4192.82 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the downtrend read; the 4200 round number sits just above
London open in ~30 min could set the next session range
Hammack 16:50 UTC and Waller Tue 07:45 UTC ahead of Wednesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
Asia spike above Friday high fully unwound; lower highs and lower lows into late Asia session.
Asia session pushed through Friday's 4207 high to a 4217.25 session high, into the $4,200–4,215 trendline zone flagged ahead of US CPI. The move then failed. It stepped down through lower highs to a 4179.55 session low, and the bounce stalled at 4192.82 just shy of the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 4,179.55, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,192.82, 4,200.00, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4192.82 lower high and 38.2% fib breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 4179.55 session low exposes the Friday low at 4168.57
Recovery above the 4200 round number needed to reopen the 4217.25 session high and falling trendline
London open within the hour; Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC, with US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC the main risk to this read
06:06 UTC
Intraday pullback from Asia high, short-term bounce · RSI 44 · price 4,192.44
Lower highs from 4217.25, sweep below early-Asia low then reclaim.
Monday's Asia session spiked to a 4217.25 session high, then faded about $38 with no follow-through, as the digest flags, while traders wait on CPI. The 05:30 bar swept below the 4184.83 asia low to a 4179.55 session low and was bought back. Price is now pressing the fib 38.2% at 4193.95 under a descending line of lower highs, with London open next.
Support: 4,184.83, 4,179.55, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,193.95, 4,200.00, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4200 round number and the descending line would expose the 4217.25 session high
Failure to hold the 4184.83 asia low reopens the 4179.55 session low. A break there brings the 4168.57 friday low into view
Rejection at the fib 38.2% keeps the lower-high sequence from 4217.25 intact
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC today, with US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC the larger risk to this read
05:48 UTC
Intraday downtrend after Asia spike rejected · RSI 31 · price 4,186.84
Lower highs from 4217 session high, fresh session low at 4179.55.
Monday Asia pushed through the 4200 psych level to a 4217.25 session high. It then rejected and faded the whole move in a chain of lower highs, breaking the 4184.83 opening low to print a 4179.55 session low ahead of the London open. The $4,200 break flagged in the digest has failed for now. Price sits below the 4195.03 fri close, and RSI(14) near 31 is soft but not extreme.
Support: 4,179.55, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,195.03, 4,200.00, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4195.03 fri close, near the 38.2% fib of the Asia fade, breaks the lower-highs sequence
A move below the 4179.55 session low exposes the 4168.57 friday low
A reclaim of the 4200 psych level would put the 4217.25 session high back in play
London open in about 75 minutes, then Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, could reset the intraday range; US CPI on Wed is the main event risk
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4217.25 Asia high; price below the Asia low.
Gold's Asia session push through 4200 psych to a 4217.25 session high, on ETF inflows and a softer USD, did not hold. Lower highs since then have taken price back below the Monday open and the 4184.8 asia low into Friday's 4179.3 swing low ahead of London open. RSI(14) sits near 36, not stretched.
Support: 4,179.30, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,184.80, 4,200.00, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4179.3 swing low exposes the 4168.57 friday low
A reclaim of the 4184.8 asia low and the lower-highs trendline near 4202 would negate the downtrend read
A move back above 4200 psych reopens the 4217.25 session high
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main risk
Failed Asia breakout above 4200, lower highs from 4217.25 session high, testing asian low.
Asia pushed gold through 4200 and Friday's 4207.48 high to a 4217.25 session high, near the $4,215 trendline cited in the ETF-inflow-led digest. That break failed: lower highs at 4214 and 4208 formed a falling resistance line, and price has unwound the whole move back to the 4184.83 asian low with RSI(14) near 26, about two hours before London open.
Support: 4,184.83, 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,195.03, 4,200.00, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4184.83 asian low exposes Friday's 4175.20 swing low, then the 4168.57 friday low
Reclaim of the 4195.03 friday close and the 4200 psych handle would neutralise the fade
Close above the falling resistance line from the 4217.25 session high would invalidate the lower-high sequence
London open is the next test of the asian low; Fed's Hammack (16:50 UTC) and Wed CPI decide whether the 4200 breakout attempt resumes
05:06 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asia spike, lower highs · RSI 42 · price 4,195.61
Asia rally from 4187.55 to 4217.25 retraced ~78.6%; lower-high chain since 01:00 UTC.
Asia lifted gold from the 4187.55 rally base to a 4217.25 session high on flow-driven ETF demand and a softer USD. The push above the 4200 psych level has since faded into a false break, with lower highs pulling price back to the 78.6% fib of the Asia rally near 4195 and RSI(14) at about 41. The 4193.78 swing low is the immediate floor, and the 4184.83 Asian low sits below it.
Support: 4,193.78, 4,187.55, 4,184.83
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,208.26, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4193.78 swing low would extend the fade toward the 4187.55 rally base and the 4184.83 Asian low
Reclaiming the 4200 psych level and closing above the 4208.26 lower high would break the descending trendline from the session high
London open in about 2h typically expands range beyond the current ATR of about 5.7
Fed's Hammack speaks at 16:50 UTC, and any October-hike talk could shift this read ahead of Wednesday's CPI
04:48 UTC
Pullback within Asia rally, momentum fading · RSI 40 · price 4,197.99
Lower highs from 4217.25 session high; price on 61.8% fib.
Gold gapped lower at the Asia open, based at the 4184.8 asia low, then rallied to a 4217.25 session high on ETF inflows and a softer USD. Price was rejected there, has printed lower highs since 01:00 UTC and is back under 4200 psych, sitting on the 61.8% fib near 4197 just above the fri close at 4195, with RSI(14) near 40 and price below EMA20 and marginally below EMA50 around 4199.
Support: 4,195.00, 4,184.80, 4,168.60
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,207.50, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above 4200 psych and the lower-high trendline near 4205 would negate the pullback read
Failure to hold the 4195 fri close and the 61.8% fib exposes the 4184.8 asia low, with the 4168.6 friday low below that
On a recovery, the 4207.5 friday high, then the 4217.25 session high, are the levels to watch for rejection or break
London open is under 30 minutes away and could extend or reset the Asian range
Fed's Hammack speaks at 16:50 UTC; US CPI on Wed 14 Oct at 12:30 UTC is the main event risk for the 4200 area
04:33 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asian spike, momentum fading · RSI 45 · price 4,200.36
Lower highs since 4217.25 session high; testing 4200 psych.
After a weekend gap lower, the Asia session ran from the 4184.83 asian low to a 4217.25 session high on ETF inflows and a softer USD. It has since slipped back below the 4207.48 friday high in a false break, printing a chain of lower highs. Price sits on 4200 psych near the 61.8% fib of the Asian leg, with the 4197.69 swing low the nearest support and EMA50 flat just beneath.
Support: 4,197.69, 4,187.55, 4,184.83
Resistance: 4,207.48, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4207.48 friday high and the lower-high trendline reopens the 4217.25 session high
Failure to hold the 4197.69 swing low exposes the 4187.55 breakout base and the 4184.83 asian low
London open in ~2.5h may set a new session range; Fed's Hammack (16:50 UTC) and Wednesday's CPI could materially shift this read
04:18 UTC
Asia up-leg stalling, pullback in progress · RSI 44 · price 4,200.87
Asia session ran from the 4184.83 session low to a 4217.25 session high on ETF-flow and soft-USD buying. Since then it has printed lower highs at 4214.20 and 4208.26, pulling price back to retest 4200, with the 4198.09 swing low sitting near the 61.8% fib. RSI(14) is near 44 and price is below EMA20.
Support: 4,198.09, 4,184.83
Resistance: 4,208.26, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4198.09 swing low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 4184.83 session low
Close above the 4208.26 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 4217.25 session high
London open and Fed's Hammack (16:50 UTC) could shift this read; Wednesday's US CPI is the main event risk
Lower highs from the 4217 session high, compressing into the 4200 round number.
The Asia session gapped lower from the 4184.8 Asian low and filled back to Friday's 4195 close. The 00:00 UTC bar then broke through the 4207.5 Friday high on ETF-flow demand and a softer USD, printing a 4217.3 session high. Since then a lower high at 4214.2 and descending highs have pulled price back to the 4200 round number, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the Asian leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 4,200.00, 4,195.00, 4,184.80
Resistance: 4,207.50, 4,214.20, 4,217.30
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4200 round number exposes the fri close at 4195 and the 50% fib zone.
An M15 close back above the 4207.5 Friday high breaks the descending highs line and brings the 4214.2 lower high and 4217.3 session high back into play.
At London open, a break of either end of the 4184.8–4217.3 Asian range would set the next leg.
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the first USD catalyst ahead of Wednesday's CPI and could shift this read.
Asia breakout above Friday high, now consolidating 4200–4217 under lower highs.
Late Asia session: gold rallied from a 4184.83 session low to a 4217.25 session high, clearing Friday's 4207 high on record ETF inflows and a softer USD. Pullbacks have held the 4201.78 swing low near the 50% fib of the Asian leg, while a lower high at 4214.20 caps the tape and RSI(14) sits neutral near 54.
Support: 4,201.78, 4,195.03, 4,184.83
Resistance: 4,214.20, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4201.78 swing low and 4200 opens a return into Friday's range toward the 4195.03 friday close
Close above the 4214.20 lower high and 4217.25 session high breaks the lower-highs trendline and resumes the Asian leg
Loss of the 4195.03 friday close exposes the 4184.83 session low
London open in ~3h and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could reset the session range; US CPI Wed is the larger risk
03:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 47 · price 4,203.01
Asia break above Friday high, now retesting the breakout zone.
Monday's Asia session gapped below the 4195 Friday close, then rallied through Friday's 4207.48 prior high to a 4217.25 session high as the USD eased and ETF inflows stayed firm. Price has faded to 4203, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the Asia leg, retesting the breakout zone with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 4,200.28, 4,195.03, 4,184.83
Resistance: 4,207.48, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4200.3 swing low and the 50% fib turns the breakout into a false break, exposing the 4195 friday close and then the 4184.8 session low
Recovery above the 4207.5 prior high restores the breakout read, with the 4217.25 session high next
London open in ~3.5h and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the read; Wednesday's US CPI is the larger risk
03:18 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 57 · price 4,204.22
Asia session breakout above Friday high, lower high at 4214, retest of 4200.
Monday opened with a gap below the 4195.03 fri close and a session low at 4184.83. The 03:00 broker-time bar then filled the gap and broke the 4207.48 fri high, on ETF-inflow and softer-USD flows, before printing a 4217.25 session high. A lower high at 4214.20 has since capped price, which has slipped back below the fri high to the 38.2% retracement near 4204, with the 4200.28 swing low holding so far.
Support: 4,200.28, 4,195.03, 4,184.83
Resistance: 4,207.48, 4,214.20, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4200.28 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib near 4197 and the 4195 fri close
Reclaim of the 4207.48 fri high and a break of the 4214.20 lower high puts the 4217.25 session high back in play
London open in roughly 4h typically expands the Asian range
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Wednesday's US CPI are the next USD risks for this read
03:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 55 · price 4,204.53
Asia break of Fri high, lower high at 4214 now testing 4200.
Asia filled the weekend gap to the Fri close at 4195, then broke the Fri high at 4207.48 on the 00:00 UTC bar as a softer USD lifted gold to a 4217.25 session high. A lower high at 4214.20 has followed, and price is back at the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally near 4205, with the 4200.28 swing low the first floor.
Support: 4,200.28, 4,195.03, 4,184.83
Resistance: 4,207.48, 4,214.20, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the Fri high at 4207.48 and the 4214.20 lower high puts the 4217.25 session high back in play
Loss of the 4200.28 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib near 4197 and the Fri close at 4195
Break below the 4184.83 Asia low would unwind the Monday breakout
USD/yields direction ahead of Fed's Hammack (16:50 UTC) and Wednesday's CPI could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above 4200, now compressing 4200–4217.
The Asia session gapped lower, then rallied off the 4184.8 asian low and cleared Friday's 4207 high and the 4200 round number, printing a 4217.25 session high as the digest points to a softer USD and record ETF inflows. Since then price has held a 4200–4217 box, with a successful retest of 4200 and a higher swing low at 4204.6 under a 4214.2 lower high. The 4204.6 swing low sits on the 38.2% fib of the Asia leg, with the rising trendline just beneath.
Support: 4,204.63, 4,200.28, 4,184.83
Resistance: 4,214.20, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4200 round number (50% fib) returns price into Friday's range and voids the breakout
M15 close above the 4217.25 session high resumes the higher-high sequence
Loss of the 4204.6 swing low and the rising trendline turns the box into a deeper pullback toward the 4184.8 asian low
London open in ~4h typically expands the Asian range; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Wednesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Uptrend, early Asia breakout consolidating · RSI 65 · price 4,211.04
Monday Asia opened with a small gap down to 4188 and an asian low at 4184.83. Price then broke Friday's 4207.48 friday high and tagged a 4217.25 session high, helped by a softer USD and record ETF inflows. The pullback held a 4200.28 swing low near the 50% fib of the leg, and price is now compressing below the 4214.2 micro high with RSI(14) near 65.
Support: 4,207.50, 4,200.30, 4,184.80
Resistance: 4,214.20, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4207.5 friday high returns price inside Friday's range
Loss of the 4200.3 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and the 50% fib
Close above the 4217.25 session high extends the breakout ahead of London open
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Wednesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above Friday's high, higher lows intact.
The Asia session opened with a weekend gap lower to 4188. Gold then pushed through the 4200 cap and Friday's prior high at 4207.5 on the softer-yield backdrop, reaching a 4217.25 session high. The pullback to the 4200.3 swing low held near the 50% of the Asia leg fib, and price is back near highs with RSI(14) around 68.
Support: 4,207.48, 4,200.28, 4,184.83
Resistance: 4,217.25
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 4207.5 prior high puts price back inside Friday's range and weakens the breakout read
Loss of the 4200.3 swing low and Asia rising trendline exposes the 4184.8 asian low
Close above 4217.25 session high extends the higher-high chain
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC today; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the week's key catalyst for the 4200 area
02:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend, early Asia session · RSI 67 · price 4,213.23
Higher lows off the Asia low; Friday high broken and retested.
The Asia session opened below Friday's 4195 close, but demand held at the 4184.83 Asia low. The 00:00 UTC bar then cleared Friday's 4207.48 high and the $4,200 range cap, extending Friday's yield-driven bid after the soft UoM print. The pullback from the 4217.25 session high held the 4200.28 swing low near the 50% of the Asia leg fib, with RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 4,207.48, 4,200.28, 4,184.83
Resistance: 4,217.25
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4207.48 friday high would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 4200.28 swing low and the rising lows trendline breaks the Asia higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 4217.25 session high extends the leg; repeated rejection there leaves a range above $4,200
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC today could materially shift this read; Wednesday's US CPI is the larger risk
Asia breakout above Friday high rejected at 4217, lower highs.
Gold opened Asia with a small gap below Friday's 4195 close, filled it, and broke the 4207.48 prior high, carrying Friday's yield-driven push into the $4,200 range cap. Price stalled at a 4217.25 session high. Three lower highs since have put price back below the prior high, retesting the 4200 psych level near the 50% fib of the 4184.83–4217.25 leg.
Support: 4,200.00, 4,187.55, 4,184.83
Resistance: 4,207.48, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4207.48 prior high reopens the 4217.25 session high
Failure to hold 4200 psych exposes the 4187.55 swing low, then the 4184.83 asian low
Holding the 50% fib around 4201 keeps the breakout-retest read intact; a close below the 61.8% at 4197 undercuts it
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC are the main risks to the $4,200 range cap
Asia breakout above 4200 cap, higher lows, lower high at 4213.
Asia opened with a gap about $6.5 below Friday's close. The 03:00 broker bar then cleared the 4200 psych cap and Friday's 4207.48 high, extending the post-Michigan rebound to a 4217.25 session high. A rejection wick there and a lower high at 4213.24 have price compressing above the 4202 retest low, which sits near the fib 50% of the Asian leg. RSI(14) is near 65 and easing, and the rising lows from the Asia low remain intact.
Support: 4,201.96, 4,200.00, 4,184.83
Resistance: 4,213.24, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 4200 psych would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 4184.83 asia low
Close above the 4217.25 session high would resume the higher-low chain; holding below the 4213.24 lower high keeps the range compressing
Loss of the 4201.96 retest low would breach the fib 50% and test the rising lows
Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) is the next scheduled risk; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the week's key catalyst for the 4200 area
Asia breakout above Friday high, now retracing into the fib zone.
Monday opened on a small gap lower and found demand at the 4184.83 session low. A sharp Asia-session thrust then cleared the 4207.48 Friday high and the $4,200 range cap flagged after Friday's soft UoM print, but the push to the 4217.25 session high was rejected. Price has slipped back to 4203, below the Friday high and between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the rally, with RSI(14) cooled to about 58.
Support: 4,200.00, 4,197.20, 4,184.83
Resistance: 4,207.48, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4207.48 Friday high would restore the breakout and put the 4217.25 session high back in play
A break below the 4200 round number and the 61.8% fib at 4197 would turn the move into a false break, with the 4184.83 session low next
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC are the scheduled risks to the $4,200 cap
Monday gap-down low at 4184.83, higher low at 4189.74, then a break above Friday's 4207.48 high and the 4200 cap.
Gold gapped about $6 lower at the Asia session open, based at 4184.83 and printed a higher low at 4189.74. A $21 bar at 00:00 UTC then cleared the 4200 psych cap and Friday's 4207.48 prior high, extending Friday's rally after the weak UoM sentiment print. Price is holding near the 4215.52 session high, with RSI(14) at about 66 and not yet stretched.
Support: 4,207.48, 4,200.00, 4,189.74
Resistance: 4,215.52
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 4207.48 prior high and 4200 psych turns the breakout into a false break and returns price to Friday's 4168–4207 range
Holding above 4200 on a dip keeps the higher lows sequence intact; losing the 4189.74 higher low unwinds the session leg
Rejection at the 4215.52 session high in thin Asia session liquidity would leave the break unconfirmed
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and Wed US CPI (12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled risks for the 4200 area
00:47 UTC
Short-term uptrend, pressing range cap · RSI 63 · price 4,208.95
Asia open gap held at 4184.83, impulsive break of Friday high 4207.48.
Monday's Asia session opened about 6.5 below Friday's 4195 close and set an Asian low at 4184.83. The 00:00 UTC bar then ran 21 points and cleared Friday's 4207.48 prior high, carrying Friday's softer-yield rebound to a 4210.54 session high, with RSI(14) near 63. The break sits right at the $4,200 range cap flagged in the digest, so the follow-through is still unproven.
Support: 4,207.48, 4,200.00, 4,184.83
Resistance: 4,210.54
What it said to watch
Holding above the 4207.48 prior high keeps the breakout read intact. Clearing the 4210.54 session high extends the Asian leg.
An M15 close back below the 4200 round number would turn the move into a false break back into Friday's range.
A retrace through the fib 61.8% of the Asian leg (~4194.6) puts the 4184.83 asian low back in play.
Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) and Wed US CPI could shift USD and yields and override thin Asian-session structure.
00:32 UTC
Uptrend off the Asia open, testing range cap · RSI 60 · price 4,203.62
Higher lows since the session low; spike through 4200 stalled under Friday high.
Asia opened with a gap about $6 below Friday's 4195 close. Price filled it, and the 00:00 UTC bar then spiked through psych 4200 to a 4210.54 session high, just over the 4207.48 Friday high. That extends Friday's soft-yield, weak-UoM bid, but there is no M15 close above the Friday high yet; RSI(14) is near 60 and ATR is about 590 pips.
Support: 4,200.00, 4,189.74, 4,184.83
Resistance: 4,207.48, 4,210.54
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4210.54 session high confirms acceptance above the Friday high
Slip back below psych 4200 (fib 38.2% area) turns the spike into a false break toward the 4189.74 swing low
Loss of 4184.83 session low breaks the higher-low trendline
Thin Asia liquidity; Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and Wed CPI keep the 4200 range cap in focus
Spike out of 4185–4199 Asian range above friday high.
Asia session reopened on a small gap below Friday's 4195 close and held the asian low at 4184.83. The 00:00 UTC bar then spiked to a 4208.73 session high, clearing the friday high at 4207.48 and the 4,200 psych cap that the Michigan-driven yield dip tested on Friday. RSI(14) near 64; the first bar after the spike is holding just under the session high but has not extended it.
Support: 4,200.00, 4,189.74, 4,184.83
Resistance: 4,207.48, 4,208.73
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 4200 psych would turn the push into a false break
Loss of the 4189.74 swing low puts price back inside the 4185–4199 Asian range; below the 4184.83 asian low opens Friday's lows
Thin Asia liquidity: London open is the first real test of the move above the friday high and 4208.73 session high
Hawkish Fed-speak this week and Wed CPI keep the 4,200 cap in play
Asian range 4184.8–4199.4 after weekend gap fill, capped under 4200.
Early in Monday's Asia session, gold opened with a ~$6.5 weekend gap down from Friday's 4195 close. The gap filled into a 4199.35 session high, but supply capping at 4200, the cap from Friday's yield-driven rally, pushed price back to 4188, below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) at 43. The Asian range of 4184.8–4199.4 is still in development, holding above the 38.2% of the Friday rally fib near 4181.6.
Support: 4,184.83, 4,175.20, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,195.03, 4,199.35, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4184.8 asian low exposes the 4175.2 swing low and the 4168.6 friday low near the 61.8% Friday rally fib
Acceptance back above the 4195 fri close and a break of the 4199.4 session high reopens the 4207.5 friday high
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and US CPI Wed Oct 14 could materially shift this read