Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
11:01 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce · RSI 49 · price 4,218.67
Lower highs / lower lows, bouncing off six-month low.
Downtrend dominant on H4: gold collapsed from ~4540 to a six-month low at 4023 as in-line CPI and a hot PPI print cemented higher-for-longer pricing. The bounce off 4023 is corrective, stalling near the 61.8% retrace around 4233 and the 4246 swing high after an Iran de-escalation relief bid. ATR(14) has expanded sharply — a trend-extension regime, not compression.
Support: 4,170.00, 4,100.00, 4,023.00
Resistance: 4,246.00, 4,330.00
What it said to watch
- H4 close above 4246 swing high opens the path toward 4330
- Failure to hold 4170 swing low reopens 4100 and the 4023 six-mo low
- FOMC dot plot Jun 17 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
11:01 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce · RSI 46 · price 4,218.67
Lower highs and lows, bounce off cycle low.
Gold remains in a clear H4 downtrend, having erased 2026 gains and bottomed at 4023 before squeezing back to 4218 — the move looks corrective rather than a structural turn. The bounce stalled into the 4246 bounce high while ATR(14) stays elevated, reflecting the volatile selloff after hot US PPI cemented higher-for-longer pricing. Price has reclaimed EMA20 but sits well below EMA50, keeping the broader rollover intact.
Support: 4,170.00, 4,100.00, 4,023.00
Resistance: 4,246.00, 4,330.00
What it said to watch
- FOMC dot plot Jun 17 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and can override this read
- Rejection at the 4246 bounce high keeps the corrective label; an H4 close above 4330 challenges the lower-high sequence
- Loss of 4170 recent low reopens the path toward 4100 and the 4023 six-month low