12:11 UTC
Corrective, lower highs off the cycle high · RSI 51 · price 4,185.78
Lower highs from 5598; higher low at 4066 above 3943.
Gold has been in a corrective regime since the late-January 2026 cycle high at 5598. Lower highs at 5419, 4889 and the aug high at 4697 have compressed price into a 3943–4697 range since Q2, and the August rebound stalled between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the 5598–3943 decline. Price is pinned just under the flattening W1 EMA(50) near 4225, with rejection there reinforced by a USD near 17–18-month highs and a December Fed hike priced around 90%. On the downside, the oct low at 4066 held above the summer low at 3943, leaving a higher low with the psych 4000 handle between them.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,942.64
Resistance: 4,225.00, 4,696.74, 5,598.18
What it said to watch
- Weekly close above the W1 ema50 near 4225 would reclaim the macro filter and reopen the aug high at 4697
- Weekly close below the oct low at 4066 breaks the higher-low line and exposes psych 4000 and the summer low at 3943
- Lower-high trendline from the cycle high, near 4490 this week, has capped every rebound since January
- US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read via Fed hike pricing and the USD