XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:03 UTC
Downtrend since Monday's peak, below both EMAs · RSI 38 · price 4,161.48
Lower highs (4217, 4200) and lower lows (4155, 4151, 4147) inside the 4100-4220 range.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's Asia-session peak at 4217. Tuesday's Asian rebound from 4151 was rejected at 4200, and price slid through London and NY to a fresh week low at 4147 as 10y yields climbed back above 5.2% and WTI firmed. Price is trading below EMA(20) near 4168 and the weekly open at 4188.6, with RSI(14) near 38, and the late-session bounce has stalled in a tight 4157-4165 band ahead of CPI.
Support: 4,146.98, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,168.00, 4,188.56, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 4147 week low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 4100 range floor in view
Rebounds capped at EMA(20) near 4168 keep the lower-highs structure intact
Recovery above the weekly open at 4188.6, near the 61.8% retrace of the 4217-4147 drop, and then the 4200 lower high would break the lower-highs read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; Bowman remarks bracket the release
Lower highs 4217 then 4200; week low at 4147 marginally undercuts Monday's low.
Gold has printed lower highs since the week high at 4217 in Monday's Asia session. Tuesday's Asia rebound was rejected at 4200, a lower high, and London and NY hours then unwound it to a fresh week low at 4147 as the US 10y yield climbed back above 5.2% and WTI topped $94. The late-NY bounce off 4147 has stalled under the EMA(20) near 4170 and the weekly open at 4189, with RSI(14) near 38, leaving the friday base at 4131 and the 4100 range floor as the next reference points below.
Support: 4,146.98, 4,131.14, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,169.80, 4,188.56, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~15h): a core print away from the 0.2% m/m forecast could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 UTC beforehand
An H1 close below the 4147 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the friday base at 4131
Reclaiming the weekly open at 4189, then a close above the 4200 lower high, breaks the lower-highs trendline from the week high
A move through 4131 puts the 4100 range floor back in play as the two-week range support
Lower highs from 4217, lower lows to 4147, within 4100-4200 box.
Gold has printed lower highs since the Asia-session week high at 4217 on Monday. Tuesday's push to 4200 met rejection, and London-NY selling took price to a new week low at 4147 as 10y yields climbed toward 5.22%. Price sits below the ema20 and EMA(50), which are flattening together near 4170, and is holding near the 50% retracement of the Thursday–Monday rally fib, with the 61.8% level aligned with the week low and the 4100 range floor below.
Support: 4,146.98, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,170.00, 4,200.49, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, core m/m vs 0.2%, could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 4147 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4100 range floor
Reclaiming the ema20 near 4170 and then the 4200 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
A break above the 4217 week high would mark a range break of the 4100-4200 box
Both of this week's rallies came in the Asia session and both were rejected near 4200. Tuesday's push to 4200.49 printed a lower high under Monday's 4217.25 week high, and London and NY sold each advance. The NY session drop to a fresh week low at 4146.98 came as the 10y yield climbed back to 5.223% and WTI topped $94. Price is basing near 4163, below ema20 at ~4170 (close to the 38.2% of the week high-low fib) and under the 4188.56 weekly open, with RSI(14) at 41 below its midline.
Support: 4,146.98, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,170.00, 4,188.56, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
H1 close back above ema20 and the 4188.56 weekly open would neutralise the lower-highs read
Failure to hold the 4147 week low opens the 4105 range floor near the $4,100 dip-demand area
Close above the 4200.49 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens 4217
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks 09:40 UTC
19:04 UTC
Short-term downtrend inside the 4100–4200 range · RSI 43 · price 4,163.21
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 4217 week high.
The week opened at 4188.56 and Monday's Asia spike to 4217.25 remains the week high. Since then H1 has printed lower highs (4217 → the 4200.49 tue high) and lower lows down to today's 4146.98 week low, with both declines extending through London and NY hours. Tuesday's Asia rebound met rejection just above the $4,200 cap as the 10y yield climbed back to 5.22% and WTI topped $94. Price now sits below a flattened ema20/EMA(50) pair near 4170, with RSI(14) recovering to ~43 from ~31 at the low.
Support: 4,146.98, 4,131.14, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,188.56, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the ema20 near 4170 and the weekly open at 4188.56 would neutralise the lower-highs sequence
38.2% retracement of the week high to week low drop sits near 4174, overlapping the ema20
An H1 close above the tue high at 4200.49 breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the $4,230 resistance in play
Failure to hold the week low at 4146.98 extends the lower-low pattern toward the fri low at 4131.14 and the 4100 range floor
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~17.5h): a core print away from the 0.2% m/m forecast could materially shift this read; Bowman and the Beige Book follow
Lower highs from 4217; NY session selloff through Monday low.
Gold opened the week at 4188.56. Monday's Asia spike to 4217.25 was rejected, and Tuesday's Asia rebound off 4150.70 stalled at the tuesday high of 4200.49, leaving a lower high under the 4200 range cap. The NY session then unwound the bounce as Treasury yields rebuilt. Price cut through the monday low at 4154.71 to a session low of 4146.98, which sits on the 61.8% fib of the 4105–4217 rally, with RSI(14) near 34 and price below the ema20 (~4170).
Support: 4,146.98, 4,131.14, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,154.71, 4,170.00, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4146.98 session low exposes the fri base at 4131 and then the 4100 range floor
Reclaiming the monday low at 4154.71 and then the ema20 near 4170 would neutralise the NY-session breakdown
Lower highs trendline from 4217 through 4200.49 caps rallies while intact
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~18h) and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read; a core miss puts the 4200 range cap back in play
Gold has faded from Monday's Asia-session week high at 4217.25, and Tuesday's Asia rebound stalled at the 4200.49 tue high for a lower high. Price then slid through London and the NY session back to 4151 as Treasury yields recovered. Price sits below the ema20 near 4171 and below the 4188.56 weekly open with RSI(14) near 31, retesting the 4150.70 tue low and the 61.8% fib of the Thursday–Monday advance at 4148 ahead of Wednesday's US CPI.
Support: 4,150.70, 4,148.20, 4,131.10
Resistance: 4,171.00, 4,188.56, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 4150.70 tue low and the 61.8% fib at 4148 confirms a lower low and exposes the 4131 fri base where Friday's Asia breakout began
Recovery above the ema20 near 4171 and the 4188.56 weekly open would neutralise the lower-highs sequence
A reclaim of the 4200.49 tue high breaks the lower-highs line from 4217 and puts the range top back in play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Monthly Budget Statement due 18:00 UTC today
16:04 UTC
Range, rolling over from lower high · RSI 37 · price 4,158.86
Gold has held a 4150–4217 range since Monday's 4188.56 weekly open. Tuesday's Asia-to-London rebound stalled at a 4200.49 lower high beneath Monday's 4217.25 week high, a rejection just under the $4,200 cap. The fade accelerated into the NY session as Treasury yields recovered, pulling price below EMA(20) near 4176 and RSI(14) to about 37, with the 4150.70 week low now within reach.
Support: 4,150.70, 4,145.97
Resistance: 4,176.00, 4,188.56, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4150.70 week low confirms a lower-low and brings the 4146 Thursday high into play
Recovery above EMA(20) and the 4188.56 weekly open would neutralise the lower-highs sequence
Close above the 4200.49 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline from 4217.25
Monthly Budget Statement today 18:00 UTC, then US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m), could materially shift this read
Lower highs 4217→4200 against rising lows from Wednesday's 4066 low.
Monday's Asia push to the 4217.25 week high failed. Tuesday's rebound from the 4150.70 week low then stalled at 4200.49, leaving a lower high under the 4200 two-week range top. The fade back below EMA(20) and EMA(50) gathered pace into the NY open as Treasury yields recovered, with RSI(14) slipping to ~39. Price now sits on the 38.2% fib of the 4066–4217 rally, where the rising trendline from Wednesday's low also runs near 4160.
Support: 4,159.67, 4,150.70, 4,141.89
Resistance: 4,177.70, 4,200.49, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4150.70 week low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 50% fib near 4142
Reclaim of the ema20 near 4178 plus a close above the 4200.49 lower high would reopen the 4217.25 week high
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Monthly Budget Statement due 18:00 UTC today
14:04 UTC
Range-bound, lower high forming under 4200 · RSI 45 · price 4,170.24
4150–4217 weekly range; lower high at 4200.49 under Monday's 4217.25.
Gold has held a 4150–4217 range since Monday's open at 4188.56. Tuesday's Asia-session bounce from the 4150.70 week low stalled at 4200.49, a lower high beneath Monday's 4217.25 week high, as hawkish-Fed pricing and a firm USD keep capping pushes toward $4,200. The London fade extended into the NY session and took price back below EMA(20) and the weekly open, to the 61.8% retracement of Tuesday's rally near 4169.7 at the session low, with RSI(14) slipping to the mid-40s.
Support: 4,168.65, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,188.56, 4,200.49, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4150.70 week low breaks the range floor and opens 4140–4100
Reclaim of the weekly open at 4188.56 and EMA(20) neutralises the lower-high fade
H1 close above the 4200.49 lower high and the lower-high trendline brings the 4217.25 week high back into play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core 0.2% m/m f/c) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks 09:40 UTC beforehand
4150–4217 weekly range with a lower high at the 4200 handle.
Gold has been boxed between the week low at 4150.70 and the week high at 4217.25 since Monday's Asia-session open. Monday's oil-driven USD bid drove the slide during London and NY hours, and Tuesday's Asia rebound stalled at the 4200 handle for a lower high. Through London and into the NY session price has faded back below EMA(20) at 4181 and now sits on EMA(50) near 4175, with RSI(14) flat around 53. Pullbacks this week have held above the 38.2% retracement of the 4066–4217 advance, leaving the 50% fib at 4142 as the deeper reference.
Support: 4,150.70, 4,141.89
Resistance: 4,181.20, 4,200.49, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
H1 close below EMA(50) near 4175 exposes the week low at 4150.70
Failure to hold the 4150.70 week low breaks the range floor and opens the 50% fib at 4142
Close above the 4200 handle and the lower-highs line would put the 4217.25 week high back in play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM), with Bowman at 09:40 UTC beforehand, could materially shift this read
4150–4217 range since Friday; lower highs under the 4200 cap.
Gold has been boxed between 4150 and 4217 since Friday, with Monday's Asia-session week high at 4217.25 and Tuesday's push to 4200.49 printing lower highs under the 4200 cap. Tuesday's rebound from the 4150.70 week low, a second test of Monday's 4154.71 NY-session trough as softer yields and oil eased the USD, has held the 38.2% retrace and EMA(20) near 4181 through London, with RSI(14) back around 56. Price sits just under the weekly open at 4188.56 into the NY open, with EMA(50) at 4175.6 the next layer below.
Support: 4,181.60, 4,175.60, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,188.56, 4,200.49, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200 cap and the lower-highs line from the 4217.25 week high breaks the range top
Loss of EMA(20) and EMA(50) in the 4176–4182 zone exposes the 4150.70 week low
Close below the 4150.70 week low invalidates the double bottom and the range floor read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC: core m/m vs the 0.2% forecast could materially shift this read
11:04 UTC
Range-bound, mid-range after a faded Tuesday bounce · RSI 48 · price 4,181.26
4150-4217 range since Friday; lower highs at 4217 and 4200, higher lows from 4105 to 4150.
Gold has rotated inside a 4150–4217 band since Friday. Monday's Asia-session week high at 4217.25 was sold through London and NY as oil spiked and the USD firmed, and Tuesday's Asia bounce off the 4150.70 swing low stalled with a rejection at the 4200 range top as yields eased. London has since faded that bounce back to the 38.2% retracement near 4181, where price sits on EMA(20) just under the 4188.56 weekly open with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and the range compressing between lower highs and higher lows ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
Support: 4,168.57, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,188.56, 4,200.49, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
H1 close below the ema20 and the 4168.57 friday low exposes the 4150.70 swing low and the higher lows line
Reclaim of the 4188.56 weekly open restores the Tuesday bounce structure toward the range top
Close above the 4200.49 range top and the lower highs line reopens the 4217.25 week high
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) is the main catalyst for a break of the 4150–4217 range
Lower high at 4200.49 under 4217.25 week high; week low swept and reclaimed.
Gold has held a 4150–4217 range since Monday's open at 4188.56. Monday's slide through London and into NY hours reached 4154.71, and Tuesday's Asia dip swept that to a 4150.70 week low before a rebound to the 4200.49 Tuesday high as yields eased and the USD took profit off its highs. Price is now consolidating just under the weekly open, sitting on EMA(20) near 4182 and the 38.2% fib of Tuesday's impulse, with RSI(14) flat near 52 and the higher lows trendline from last week's 4066.52 low still intact.
Support: 4,182.00, 4,175.60, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,188.56, 4,200.49, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200.49 Tuesday high breaks the lower highs sequence and exposes the 4217.25 week high
Loss of EMA(20) and the 50% fib at 4175.6 would point back toward the 4150.70 week low
Close below the 4150.70 week low invalidates the sweep read and puts the higher lows trendline in focus
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) is the main catalyst for a range break; Bowman speaks Wed 09:40 UTC
Lower high at 4200.49 under 4217.25 week high; 4150–4217 range.
Gold has recovered from Wednesday's NY-session flush to the 4066.52 two-month low. Monday's Asia push to the 4217.25 week high then faded through London and NY as oil above $93 and hawkish Fed talk lifted the dollar. Tuesday's Asia dip held the 4150.70 week low near the 38.2% level of the Wednesday low–week high fib, and the London rally stalled at 4200.49, a tuesday high and lower high that leaves price just under the 4188.56 week open, above ema20 near 4180 and with RSI(14) near 57 inside a 4150–4217 range.
Support: 4,180.00, 4,150.70, 4,141.89
Resistance: 4,188.56, 4,200.49, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4217.25 week high breaks the lower highs sequence and the range top
Failure to hold the 4150.70 week low exposes the 50% fib at 4141.89 and the rising support line from Wednesday's low
Sustained trade back above the 4188.56 week open keeps Tuesday's rebound intact; a loss of ema20 near 4180 returns focus to the lows
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks 09:40 UTC beforehand
08:04 UTC
Range-bound, recovering from Tuesday Asia low · RSI 58 · price 4,187.59
4150–4217 range; lower high at 4200 below Monday's week high.
Gold has rotated inside a 4150–4217 band since Friday's rebound off Wednesday's 4066 two-month low. Monday's Asia-session spike to the 4217 week high met rejection, and the slide through London and NY tracked oil above $93 and DXY strength reviving Fed-hike pricing. Tuesday's Asia bounce from the 4150 Asia low held above the 38.2% level of the 4066–4217 fib and reclaimed the ema20 near 4178. It stalled at a 4200 lower high, leaving price pinned just under the 4188 weekly open with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 4,178.00, 4,141.90
Resistance: 4,200.49, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200 lower high breaks the descending trendline; acceptance above the 4217 week high clears the range top
Loss of the 4150 Asia low exposes the 50% fib near 4142 and the rising trendline from the 4066 low
Repeated closes back below the ema20 near 4178 return price to the lower half of the range
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC — core vs 0.2% f/c is the likely catalyst for a range break either side
4150–4217 range above higher lows; lower high forming near 4200.
Gold slid from Monday's 4217.25 week high, a rejection above 4200, to 4154.71 as oil above $93 and Fed-hike pricing weighed. Tuesday's Asia-session low of 4150.70 held between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the 4066.52–4217.25 rise from Wednesday's post-minutes low, and price has since recovered above the 4188.56 weekly open and EMA(20). It is now testing the 4200.49 asia high, a lower high versus Monday, with RSI(14) near 61 and short of overbought.
Support: 4,188.56, 4,177.50, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,200.49, 4,207.48, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200.49 asia high and 4207.48 friday high breaks the lower-high line and reopens the 4217.25 week high
Loss of the weekly open and EMA(20) near 4177.5 returns price to the middle of the 4150–4217 range
Break of the 4150.70 week low cuts the higher-low trendline from Thursday's 4105.45 and exposes the 50% retracement near 4142
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC today and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:04 UTC
Recovering within range, upper half of week's move · RSI 57 · price 4,192.32
4,150–4,217 range above a rising trendline from Wednesday's low, lower highs capping.
Gold has held a rising trendline of higher lows off Wednesday's 4,066 two-month low, which came after the FOMC Minutes, and has spent Friday through today ranging between 4,150 and 4,217 in the upper half of that move. Monday's rejection from the 4,217.25 Monday high, on oil above $93 and hawkish Fed commentary, ran into the NY open, but the 4,150.70 Asian low held near the 38.2% fib, and today's Asia-session rebound has lifted price back above the weekly open and EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 57. The 4,200.49 Tuesday high sits below Monday's, leaving a lower-high sequence under the 4,200 area ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4,217.25 Monday high breaks the lower-high sequence and the range top
Failure to hold the 4,188.56 weekly open and the EMA(20) near 4,178 returns price to the lower half of the range
Break of the 4,150.70 Asian low and the rising trendline exposes the 50% fib near 4,142
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:06 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding off a higher low · RSI 58 · price 4,195.66
Monday's Asia push to the 4217.25 Monday high failed back inside the range. Oil-driven USD strength and hawkish Fedspeak then drove a London-to-NY open slide to 4154.71. Tuesday's Asia low at 4150.70 held on the higher-low trendline from Wednesday's 4066.52 low, between the 38.2% and 50% levels of the Wed–Mon impulse fib, and price has since reclaimed the weekly open and EMA20 with RSI(14) back near 58, putting the 4200 range top back in play.
Support: 4,188.56, 4,177.00, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200 range top and the 4217.25 Monday high would mark a break of the two-week range
Loss of the weekly open at 4188.56 and the EMA20 near 4177 returns price to mid-range
Break of the 4150.70 Asia low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 4100 area
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC today and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core the swing factor) could materially shift this read
04:05 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding off the lower half · RSI 59 · price 4,189.05
4150–4217 range; double bottom at 4155/4151 with Monday's lower-highs line cleared.
Gold has held a 4150–4217 band since recovering from Wednesday's NY-session drop to 4066. Monday's Asia spike to the 4217 week high was rejected as oil-driven USD strength and ~90% December hike pricing took hold, and London and NY ground price down to 4154. Today's Asia session printed a marginal swing low at 4150.70, inside the 38.2–50% retracement of the week's advance. The rebound has since retaken EMA(20) near 4176 and Monday's lower-highs line, putting price back on the weekly open at 4188.6 with RSI(14) recovering to ~59; the prior close at 4195 and the 4200 range top sit directly overhead.
Support: 4,188.56, 4,175.80, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,195.03, 4,200.00, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200 range top exposes the 4217 week high; a fresh rejection there keeps the range read intact
Slipping back below the weekly open and the ema20 near 4176 would undercut the double bottom; a break of the 4150.70 swing low confirms a lower low
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC today and Wednesday's US CPI (12:30 UTC, core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
03:04 UTC
Range after Wed-Fri rally, Monday downswing stalling · RSI 57 · price 4,179.29
4150-4217 range; double bottom at 4151-4155 under Monday's lower highs.
Monday's Asia-session push to 4217.25 failed back under the 4200 round number, a false break that sold off through London into NY as oil above $93 lifted USD and Fed hike pricing. That left a sequence of lower highs from the week high down to a 4154.71 NY low. Tuesday's Asian range dipped to a 4150.70 week low near the 38.2% retracement of the 4066.52-4217.25 rally and rebounded to 4180, forming a double bottom with the Monday low and lifting price through the lower-highs line and back above a flat ema20/50 cluster near 4172, with RSI(14) recovering to about 57.
Support: 4,172.00, 4,150.70, 4,141.90
Resistance: 4,188.56, 4,200.00, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 4188.56 weekly open, then the 4200 round number, would undo Monday's false-break read
Clearing the 4217.25 week high takes out the range top
Slipping back under the ema20/50 cluster near 4172 returns price to Monday's lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 4150.70 week low breaks the double bottom and exposes the 50% fib at 4141.90
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC today and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Monday's Asia push to the 4217 week high was rejected. The oil-driven USD bid then pulled gold back through the 4188.6 weekly open, with lower highs through London into the NY open low at 4154. Since then price has compressed in a 4154–4176 band below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 38. It is now sitting on the fib 38.2% of the 4066–4217 rally after a marginal new low at 4153.65 in early Tuesday Asia.
Support: 4,154.00, 4,141.90, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,176.00, 4,188.60, 4,217.30
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4154 monday low confirms a lower-low and exposes the fib 50% at 4142
Reclaiming the 4176 range cap and the lower-highs trendline turns focus back to the weekly open at 4188.6
Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; a hot core print puts the 4100 range floor in play
The 4217 week high remains the cap of the broader 4100–4200 consolidation
00:04 UTC
Range-bound, fading from range top · RSI 44 · price 4,169.65
Lower highs since Monday's 4217 peak inside the 4100–4200 range.
Monday's Asia-session spike to the 4217.25 monday high failed to hold above the 4200 range top. Supply through London into the NY open drove price down to 4154.71, as WTI above $93 lifted USD and pushed December hike odds near 90%. Price has since compressed into a 4160–4176 band and sits just under EMA(20) near 4174, holding the rising support from Wednesday's 4066 low near the 38.2% retracement of that rebound, with RSI(14) drifting in the mid-40s.
Support: 4,154.71, 4,141.89, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,174.00, 4,200.00, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the monday low at 4154.71 breaks the rising support from Wednesday's 4066 low and exposes the 50% fib at 4142
Reclaim of ema20 at 4174 followed by acceptance above the 4200 range top would end the lower-high sequence, with the monday high at 4217 next
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC, core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; a hot core print puts the 4100 range floor in focus