Lower highs all week, range floor broken, retest of 4100 from below.
The week opened at 4188.56. Price pushed to 4217.25 in Monday's Asia session, then printed a lower high at 4200.49 on Tuesday and another at 4170.40 early Wednesday. The 4135–4147 floor held until the hot core CPI print (0.3% vs 0.2%) broke it, and the leg extended to a 4073.55 cpi low in the NY session. After London close, price recovered to retest the 4100 round number from just above, near the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg. Price remains below the ema20 at ~4118, and RSI(14) has climbed from sub-20 to the mid-30s.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,118.00, 4,135.87, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
H1 closes back below the 4100 round number would mark a rejection at the broken range floor and put the 4073.55 cpi low back in focus
Acceptance above the ema20 (~4118) and the 50% fib (~4122) would open a test of the 4135.87 pre-cpi low
A break of the lower highs trendline, or a move through the 4170.40 lower high, would undo the week's lower-high sequence
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC (~16h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs all week; range floor broken on CPI, now retesting 4100 from below.
The week opened near 4188.6 and the Asia session push to 4217 on Monday failed, leaving lower highs at 4200.5 Tuesday and 4170.4 early Wednesday as the 4135–4150 floor kept getting tested. Hot core CPI broke that floor in the first hour of NY, and the leg ran to a 4073.55 CPI low as yields and the dollar rallied. The late-NY bounce has stalled at a 4106.52 rebound high just under the 38.2% retracement (~4110), with price back at the 4100 psych level, below EMA(20) near 4116 and RSI(14) recovering to ~39 from sub-30.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,106.52, 4,135.87, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
Rejection under the 4106.52 rebound high and 38.2% fib keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Failure to hold the 4100 psych level exposes a retest of the 4073.55 CPI low
H1 close back above 4135.87, the pre-cpi low, would undo the range-break read
A break of the lower-highs trendline from 4200.5 and 4170.4 would be needed to challenge the 4170.4 lower high
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims Thu 12:30 UTC (~16.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows all week; 4100 range floor broken on CPI.
Gold has printed a lower high every day since Monday's Asia-session top at 4217.25, with 4200.49 on Tuesday and 4170.40 on Wednesday, and Tuesday's NY session also led the selling. The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the 4100 range floor in a single bar and carried price to the 4073.55 week low, where RSI(14) briefly dipped into the high teens before recovering to about 31. Price is back just under 4100 from below, with EMA(20) near 4118 and the pre-CPI low at 4135.87 overhead within the week drop.
Support: 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,135.87, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 4100 range floor would turn the CPI break into a false break; rejection there keeps the lower high sequence intact
A failure to hold the 4073.55 week low extends the post-CPI leg
A recovery through the 4135.87 pre-cpi low and the lower highs trendline near 4150 would challenge the downtrend read
Thursday's 12:30 UTC PPI and Retail Sales cluster could materially shift this read
18:04 UTC
Downtrend, accelerated by CPI · RSI 27 · price 4,081.22
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; 4100 range floor broken.
Gold has printed lower highs all week, from Monday's 4217 week high to 4200 on Tuesday and 4170 early Wednesday, with each NY session pressing lows a little deeper. The hot core CPI print at 12:30 UTC turned that drift into a range break: a $70 bar took price through the 4100 range floor, and the NY session then set a 4073.55 week low. Price now sits well below EMA(20) near 4119 with RSI(14) around 27, and post-CPI bars are compressing between 4073 and 4095 without reclaiming 4100.
Support: 4,073.55, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,119.00, 4,136.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4100 range floor would mark the CPI move as a false break and reopen the old range
Failure to hold the 4073.55 week low extends the post-CPI leg toward 4050 psych
Rebounds meet the ema20 near 4119, the 38.2% fib of the drop from the week high (~4128), then the pre-cpi low at 4136 and the lower-highs trendline near 4150
Beige Book reaction (18:00 UTC) and Thursday's 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday; 4100 range floor broken.
Gold opened the week at 4188.56 and peaked at 4217.25 in Monday's Asia session. Each later rally stalled lower, at 4200.49 Tuesday and 4170.40 Wednesday, while Tuesday's NY session and Wednesday's London hours pressed toward the 4135.87 pre-CPI low. The hot core CPI print (0.3% vs 0.2%) lifted USD and yields and broke the 4100 range floor in a single ~$70 bar early in the NY session. That move set a week low at 4073.55, and price is now compressing at 4073–4084, well below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 25 in oversold territory.
Support: 4,073.55, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,135.87
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 4100 range floor would turn the breakdown into a false break.
Failure to hold the 4073.55 week low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 4050 round number in focus.
A recovery through the 4128–4136 area (38.2% fib and pre-CPI low) would undercut the lower-highs structure.
The Beige Book at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read.
Thursday 12:30 UTC PPI and Retail Sales could also materially shift this read.
15:03 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg lower on CPI · RSI 24 · price 4,092.70
Lower highs since Monday; $4,100 range floor broken.
Gold has printed lower highs all week, from 4217 on Monday to 4200 on Tuesday and 4170 on Wednesday. It drifted beneath both EMAs into the London session before the hot US core CPI beat lifted USD and yields. The CPI bar pushed price through the $4,100 range floor to a cpi low at 4079.72. The post-print bounce has stalled just under the old range floor, with RSI(14) near 24 and ATR(14) roughly doubled from the pre-CPI pace.
Support: 4,079.72, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,135.87, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 4100 range floor would mark the CPI move as a false break of the two-week range
Failure to hold the 4079.72 cpi low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 4050 psych level the next round number below
The pre-cpi low at 4135.87 sits close to the 38.2% fib of the week high-cpi low move (~4132); a reclaim there would challenge the downtrend read
The lower high at 4170.40 anchors the descending trendline; the line has capped every rally since Tuesday
Fed's Bowman remarks and the 18:00 UTC Beige Book could extend or reverse the yield-driven move
Thursday 12:30 UTC PPI, retail sales and jobless claims are the next scheduled catalyst for USD and yields
14:03 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating after CPI · RSI 21 · price 4,087.67
Lower highs and lower lows all week; 4100 range floor broken.
Gold has carved lower highs from Monday's Asia-session week high at 4217.25 through Tuesday's 4200.49 and Wednesday's 4170.40, with each NY session extending the lower-low sequence below the 4188.56 weekly open. The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC produced a 70-dollar bar whose cpi high at 4155.77 was rejected at the lower-highs trendline before price collapsed through the 4100 range floor to a 4079.72 cpi low. Price now sits well below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 21 in oversold territory after the range break.
Support: 4,079.72, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,135.87, 4,155.77
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 4100 range floor would turn the break into a false break and reopen the old range
Failure to hold the 4079.72 cpi low extends the lower-low sequence toward 4050 psych, with no prior structure in the window below
A retracement toward the 38.2% level of the week high–cpi low fib near 4132 meets the 4135.87 pre-cpi low; 4155.77 cpi high and the lower-highs trendline cap above
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 UTC and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Thursday 12:30 UTC PPI and Retail Sales are the next event risk for the post-CPI move
13:05 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating after CPI · RSI 23 · price 4,086.31
Lower highs since Monday; $4,100 range floor broken.
Gold has printed a sequence of lower highs since the week opened at 4188.56: 4217 Monday, 4200 Tuesday and 4170 early Wednesday. Each Asia-session rally faded through London and NY hours, and price held below EMA(20) and EMA(50) from Tuesday's NY session onward. The hot core CPI (0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) produced a whipsaw bar: an initial spike to the 4155.77 cpi high, rejected at the lower-high trendline, then a 70-point drop to 4085. That drop cut through the pre-cpi low at 4135.87 and the 4,100 range floor, leaving RSI(14) oversold near 23.
Support: 4,085.22
Resistance: 4,135.87, 4,155.77
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4,100 range floor would mark the CPI drop as a false break
Failure to hold the 4085 cpi low leaves the 4,050 round number as the next reference
Reclaim of the 4135.87 pre-cpi low (≈38.2% fib of the Monday–Wednesday leg) would neutralise the breakdown read
Lower-high trendline near 4155 and the cpi high cap the structure while intact
Bowman (14:55 GMT) and the Beige Book (18:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
Thursday 12:30 GMT PPI and retail sales could extend or reverse the CPI move
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's Asia peak.
Gold has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's Asia peak at 4217. Tuesday's London-open rejection near 4200 faded through NY, and Wednesday's London slide extended the week low to 4135.87 as 10y yields held above 5.2% and Fed hike pricing stayed firm. Price sits below the weekly open, below the H1 EMA(20) near 4152 and below EMA(50). RSI(14) is near 35 without reaching oversold, and the lower-highs trendline from Tuesday's high has capped each bounce, most recently at Wednesday's 4170 lower high.
Support: 4,135.87, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,152.00, 4,170.40, 4,188.56
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (15:30 broker), under 30 minutes away, could materially shift this read; core m/m vs the 0.2% forecast is the swing factor
An H1 close above EMA(20) near 4152 that holds through CPI would mark the first reclaim since Tuesday's NY session
A break above the 4170.40 lower high would violate the lower-highs trendline and the descending sequence
Failure to hold the 4135.87 week low exposes Thursday's 4105.45 swing low and the 4100 range floor
Recovery of the 4188.56 weekly open would neutralise this week's down move
Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT add follow-through risk after CPI
Lower highs and lower lows, testing week low into CPI.
Gold has printed lower highs at 4217, 4200 and 4170 since Monday's Asia-hours peak. Tuesday's rejection near 4200 turned into a NY session slide as rebounding yields and oil-fed hike bets outweighed a softer USD. Today's London session pushed to a fresh week low at 4138.81, with price capped under the ema20 near 4152 and RSI(14) in the mid-30s, not yet oversold. The Wed high at 4170.40 sits near the 38.2% retracement of the week decline from 4217 to 4139, and the weekly open at 4188.56 sits just above the 61.8% level.
Support: 4,138.81, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,152.00, 4,170.40, 4,188.56
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC, with core m/m vs 0.2% as the swing factor, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 4138.81 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4105.45 thu low
H1 close back above the ema20 near 4152 would mark the first reclaim since Wednesday's London session
Close above the 4170.40 wed high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
Bowman at 14:55 UTC and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC frame the post-CPI reaction
10:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs each day · RSI 35 · price 4,141.97
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; ranges compressing near week low.
Gold has printed lower highs at 4217, 4200 and 4170 since Monday's open at 4188.56. Tuesday's rejection at the 4200 tue high gave way to an NY-session slide, and London extended it this morning to a fresh week low at 4140.76 as rebounding yields and oil-driven Fed-hike pricing outweighed a softer USD. Price is capped below the ema20 near 4153 and the EMA(50). RSI(14) has held sub-50 since Tuesday's NY session, near 35, while hourly ranges compress into US CPI.
Support: 4,140.76, 4,130.00, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,153.00, 4,170.40, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC, with core vs 0.2% m/m the swing factor, could materially shift this read; Bowman at 14:55 UTC follows
H1 close below the 4140.76 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4130 psych level and the 4100 range floor
Recovery above the ema20 and the lower-highs line, then the 4170 wed high at the 38.2% fib, would break the lower-high structure
A return to the 4200 tue high puts the two-week range top back in play after two rejections there this week
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 4217 peak.
Gold has printed lower highs at 4217, 4200 and 4170 since Monday's Asia-session peak, with London and NY hours driving each leg down as 5.22% Treasury yields and $94 oil kept Fed-hike bets alive. Price sits below EMA(20) near 4158 and EMA(50) near 4164, and Wednesday's Asia bounce stalled at the 4170 lower high, which lines up with the 38.2% level of the week decline fib. The fresh week low at 4141 came with RSI(14) at 36 versus 31 at Tuesday's low, a mild bullish divergence, with the friday low at 4131 the next reference above the 4105 range floor.
Support: 4,141.41, 4,131.14, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,157.93, 4,170.40, 4,188.56
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman speaks at 09:40 UTC
H1 close below the 4141 week low and 4131 friday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4105 range floor
H1 close above the 4170 lower high breaks the lower highs trendline; the weekly open at 4188.56 sits at the 61.8% of the week decline fib
A new low with RSI(14) below 31 would cancel the bullish divergence
Lower highs from the 4217 Monday peak, lows stepping down to 4143.
Gold opened the week at 4188.56. It failed at 4217.25 in Monday's Asia session and has printed lower highs since, at 4200.49 Tuesday and 4170.40 overnight. Tuesday's NY session drove the main leg lower as yields and oil lifted Fed-hike bets, and today's 4143.19 week low marks a fifth successive lower low. Price is capped under EMA(20) near 4157 with RSI(14) around 42, and the closes are compressing rather than extending.
Support: 4,143.19, 4,131.14, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,157.00, 4,170.40, 4,188.56
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC, with core m/m against the 0.2% forecast, could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 and 14:55 UTC
H1 close below the 4143.19 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4131.14 friday low and the 4105 range floor
Recovery above EMA(20) and the 4170.40 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline, putting the 4188.56 weekly open (near the 61.8% fib) back in play
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's 4217 week open spike: 4200.49 (the Tue high), then 4170.4 early Wednesday. Dips into the 4144.49 week low have been absorbed so far. Tuesday's NY session reversal, as 10y yields climbed toward 5.22%, erased the Asia rally and left price below EMA(20) near 4161 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 40. The 4170 lower high lines up with the 38.2% level of the week decline fib as the first cap, while Thursday's 4105 prior low near the 4100 range floor sits below the week low.
Support: 4,144.49, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,160.70, 4,170.40, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC today (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read through yields and USD
H1 close below the 4144.49 week low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 4105 prior low in view
H1 close above the 4170.4 lower high and the lower highs trendline breaks the descending structure, with the 4200.49 Tue high next
Bowman at 09:40 and 14:55 UTC and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC add event risk around CPI
06:05 UTC
Downtrend since Monday's high, pressing the week low · RSI 40 · price 4,147.77
Gold opened the week at 4188.56 and has printed lower highs since Monday's Asia peak at 4217.25: Tuesday's 4200.49 tue high failed, and the NY session dropped to 4146.98 as 10y yields climbed toward 5.22%. Wednesday's Asia bounce met rejection at 4170.40 (wed high), just under the 38.2% fib of the week's decline, and price is back below the ema20 near 4162 with RSI(14) around 40. Price now sits a few dollars above the 4144.49 week low, with lows compressing against the descending lower highs line.
Support: 4,144.49, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,162.10, 4,170.40, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; a 0.3%+ core print would add pressure on the week low
H1 close below the 4144.49 week low confirms a lower-low and opens the path to the 4105.45 prior low near the 4100 range floor
Close back above the ema20 and the 4170.40 wed high breaks the lower highs line; the 4200.49 tue high is the next cap
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and the yield reaction around 5.22% are the near-term drivers before CPI
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's Asia spike to the 4217.25 week high, with the Asia-session rally on Tuesday rejected at the 4200.49 tue high. It then unwound to 4147 during NY hours as 10y yields climbed toward 5.22% and oil firmed. Wednesday's Asia dip set a marginal new week low at 4144.49 before a rebound to the 38.2% retracement of Tuesday's drop near 4166. Price is pinned on EMA(20) just under the EMA(50) at 4168.7, with RSI(14) neutral in the mid-50s and the lower-highs line converging toward the 4145-4150 floor ahead of US CPI.
Support: 4,144.49, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,168.70, 4,200.49, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC today (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman at 09:40 and 14:55 UTC adds risk
H1 close below the 4144.49 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 4100 range floor
H1 close above the lower-highs line and ema50 near 4169-4172 (50% of Tuesday's drop) breaks the descending sequence
Recovery through the 4200.49 tue high would reopen the 4217.25 week high
Lower highs from 4217 and 4200, marginal lower lows near 4145.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's Asia-session week high at 4217.25. Rejection at the 4200.49 range top on Tuesday turned into an NY-session slide as 10y yields climbed to 5.22%, and early Asia today set a fresh week low at 4144.49. Price is pinned just under the H1 EMA(20) near 4165 and below the 4188.56 weekly open, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s rather than oversold on the new low; the 38.2% retrace of the week high-to-low move sits near 4172.
Support: 4,144.49, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,164.70, 4,188.56, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC, with Bowman at 09:40 UTC, could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 4144.49 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4100 range floor
Hourly closes back above the ema20 and the 4188.56 weekly open would break the channel's lower-high pattern
A move through 4200.49 would mark the first break of the range top since Monday's rejection
03:05 UTC
Lower highs since Monday, holding a 4145 floor · RSI 44 · price 4,166.72
Lower highs 4217 → 4200 against flat lows near 4145–4155.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's Asia-session false break above Friday's high, which set the 4217.25 week high. Tuesday's rally was rejected at the 4200.49 lower high, and the NY session drove the slide to 4146.98 as 10y yields climbed toward 5.22% and Williams backed another hike. Today's Asian range set the 4144.49 week low and bounced back to the ema20 near 4165, but price remains below the ema50 and the 38.2% fib at 4172 with RSI(14) in the low 40s, while the weekly open at 4188.56 sits near the 61.8% retracement.
Support: 4,165.40, 4,144.49, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,188.56, 4,200.49, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~9h, core m/m vs 0.2% f/c) and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 4144.49 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4100 range floor
H1 close above the 4200.49 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the path to the 4217.25 week high
Failure to hold the ema20 near 4165 keeps the bounce capped below the 38.2% fib and the weekly open at 4188.56
Lower highs at 4217 and 4200.5; lows grinding down into 4144-4155.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's 4217 week high. Tuesday's Asia rally was rejected at the 4200.5 lower high, and NY hours then pulled price to 4147 as the 10y yield climbed to 5.22% and oil firmed. Price sits below the ema20 (~4164) and the 4188.6 weekly open with RSI(14) near 42, and a fresh week low at 4144.5 in the Asia session drew a bounce back to 4155.
Support: 4,144.50, 4,105.50
Resistance: 4,164.00, 4,188.60, 4,200.50
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~10h) is the main event risk; a hot core print could materially extend this read
H1 close below the 4144.5 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward Thursday's 4105.5 swing low
Reclaim of the ema20 near 4164 and the 38.2% fib of the week decline (~4172) would ease the downtrend read
Close above the 4188.6 weekly open and the lower-high line from 4217 toward 4200.5 neutralises the lower-high structure
01:04 UTC
Short-term downtrend inside a broader range · RSI 41 · price 4,154.77
Lower highs from the 4217 week high, lows stepping down to 4147.
Gold has slipped from Monday's Asia-session week high at 4217, with London and NY hours doing the selling on both days. Tuesday's Asia bounce was rejected at 4200 for a lower high as 5.22% 10y yields, $94 oil and Williams' hike comments reinforced Fed pricing. The NY slide found the week low at 4147, right on the 61.8% retracement of last week's 4105 swing low to 4217 advance, and the late bounce stalled at EMA(20) near 4165, with RSI(14) near 41 and price back below the weekly open at 4188.56.
Support: 4,146.98, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,165.35, 4,188.56, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; core is the swing factor
H1 close below the 4147 week low and 61.8% retracement confirms a lower-low and exposes the 4105 swing low
Acceptance back above ema20 at 4165 eases pressure; the weekly open at 4188.56 and the lower-high trendline cap the next leg
H1 close above the 4217 week high breaks the lower-high sequence
00:03 UTC
Short-term downtrend inside a broader range · RSI 38 · price 4,156.35
Lower highs below the weekly open, lows grinding marginally lower.
Monday's Asia spike to 4217 failed and gold slipped back below the 4188.56 weekly open. Tuesday's Asia rebound met rejection at 4200.49, a lower high, and London and NY then sold it to a 4146.98 week low as 10y yields climbed to 5.22%, oil topped $94 and Williams backed another hike. Price now sits under EMA(20) near 4166.5 with RSI(14) around 38, and the 38.2–50% retracement of Tuesday's sell-off (4167–4174) lines up with that ema20 zone overhead.
Support: 4,146.98, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,166.50, 4,188.56, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the ema20 and the 4167–4174 fib zone puts the weekly open at 4188.56 back in focus
Failure to hold the 4146.98 week low exposes the 4100 range floor
H1 close above the 4200.49 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline from Monday's 4217 peak