Higher lows off 4073.55 post-CPI low; Asian range 4099.95–4111.86 at 38.2% fib.
The hot US CPI print knocked gold from 4155 to a 4073.55 post-CPI low. A steady higher-low recovery has since reclaimed 4100, the old range floor, and early Asia is holding a 4099.95–4111.86 range around the 38.2% retracement of the CPI drop, with RSI(14) near 58 and no extreme.
Support: 4,099.95, 4,096.70, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,111.86, 4,114.66, 4,135.87
What it said to watch
A close above the 4111.86 Asia high opens the 50% fib at 4114.66, then the pre-CPI low at 4135.87
Loss of the 4099.95 Asia low and the 4096.70 swing low breaks the rising trendline and puts price back below 4100
Below 4096.70, the post-CPI low at 4073.55 becomes the next downside reference
Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI / Retail Sales / claims cluster could materially shift this read
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked gold from 4155.8 to a 4073.6 cpi low during NY hours, and higher lows have since lifted price back to the broken 4100 range floor. The early Asia session printed a 4111.9 session high, between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the cpi drop. Price was rejected at the ema50 near 4107 and is now holding just above the 4099.9 swing low.
Support: 4,099.90, 4,073.60
Resistance: 4,107.10, 4,111.90, 4,135.90
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4099.9 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and reopens the 4073.6 cpi low
Acceptance above the 4111.9 session high and ema50 opens the 4135.9 pre-cpi low
US Retail Sales, PPI and jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Hot US core CPI drove gold from 4155 to a 4073.55 cpi low. The NY-afternoon rebound has printed higher lows and is now retesting the broken $4,100 range floor, near the 38.2% retrace of the drop. The early Asia session range is 4099.95 session low to 4111.86 session high, with the 4107.66 post-cpi hi and EMA50 capping closes.
Support: 4,099.95, 4,096.70, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,107.66, 4,111.86, 4,124.36
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4111.86 session high opens the 50–61.8% fib zone up to 4124.36
Loss of the 4099.95 session low and the 4096.70 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain, exposing the 4073.55 cpi low
US PPI and Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Intraday recovery after the CPI selloff, higher lows intact · RSI 67 · price 4,111.23
HH/HL chain off the 4073.6 post-CPI low, early Asia above the NY session high.
Hot core CPI drove an $82 drop from the 4155.8 cpi spike to the 4073.6 cpi low. Price has since printed higher lows on the recovery line. The early Asia session cleared the 4106.5 NY prior high and is back above the $4,100 former range floor, now sitting between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the drop with RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 4,106.52, 4,096.70, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,114.66, 4,135.87, 4,155.77
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 4106.5 prior high and $4,100 turns the reclaim into a false break of the former floor
M15 close below the 4096.7 swing low breaks the recovery line and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 4114.7 50% fib opens the 4135.9 london low, the pre-CPI session floor
Rejection at the 4114.7 50% fib keeps the bounce corrective within the CPI drop
US PPI / Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; IMF meeting 00:00 UTC is a minor risk
Higher lows off 4073.55, retesting broken 4100 floor.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked gold from 4154 to a 4073.55 low. The NY-session rebound has printed higher lows along the rebound trendline, and early Asia is pushing back above the 4100 range floor and the 4107 post-CPI highs, sitting between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the CPI drop, just above EMA50, with RSI(14) at 66.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,096.70, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,135.90, 4,155.80
What it said to watch
Holding above the 4100 range floor turns the broken level into support. A slip below the 4096.7 swing low and the rebound trendline marks the retest as a rejection.
Acceptance above the 4114 50% fib opens a path to the 4135.9 london low, then the 4155.8 pre-cpi high.
Loss of the 4073.55 cpi low resumes the post-CPI leg lower.
US PPI and Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read.
Post-CPI range break; rising lows retesting 4100–4107 from below.
Hot core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the pre-CPI 4136–4170 range in a single 67-point bar. The post-cpi low at 4073.55 held into late NY, and rising lows have since lifted price to 4105, the fib 38.2% of the 4155.8–4073.6 drop. Asia session is opening flat just under the cpi spike hi at 4107.7, with EMA50 overhead near 4106 at the former $4,100 floor.
Support: 4,096.70, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,107.66, 4,114.66, 4,135.87
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4107.7 cpi spike hi clears the 38.2% and EMA50, opening the fib 50% at 4114.7
Range floor at 4135.9 is the next structural ceiling if the bounce extends
Break of the 4096.7 pullback low snaps the rising lows line and points back toward the 4073.55 post-cpi low
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
Range floor broken at 12:30 UTC; higher lows since 4073.55 low pressing into 4100–4107.
Hot core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke gold below the 4100 range floor, and the NY session printed a post-CPI low at 4073.55. Late NY has built higher lows along a rising trendline and is back at the 4100–4107 retest zone. The bounce high at 4107.29, the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop and EMA50 all sit there, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,096.70, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,107.29, 4,135.87
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4107.29 bounce high and the 38.2% CPI drop fib weakens the retest-rejection read and brings the pre-cpi low at 4135.87 into view
Break of the rising trendline and the 4096.7 swing low puts price back under the range floor
Failure to hold the 4073.55 post-cpi low confirms a lower-low
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims Thu 12:30 UTC (~16h) could materially shift this read
Hot core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the Asian range low and took gold from 4155.77 to a 4073.55 session low. The late-NY recovery off rising lows is now retesting the 4106–4107 post-CPI bounce high, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop and the former $4,100 range floor, with price holding above the 4096.70 consol low.
Support: 4,096.70, 4,080.42, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,107.30, 4,135.87
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4107.30 bounce high clears the 38.2% fib and opens the path to the 4135.87 London low
Loss of the 4096.70 consol low and the rising lows line shifts focus to the 4080.42 higher low and the 4073.55 session low
Thu 12:30 UTC PPI / Retail Sales / claims cluster (~16h) could materially shift this read
Hot core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the pre-CPI low at 4135.87 and the $4,100 range floor. The drop reached a 4073.55 session low at 16:00 UTC. After London close, a higher-low trendline has carried price back to the 4107.66 post-CPI high, which sits at the 38.2% retracement of the CPI drop. Supply has capped that area four times, and price is still below EMA50.
Support: 4,096.70, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,107.66, 4,114.66, 4,135.87
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4107.66 post-cpi hi opens the fib 50% at 4114.66, then the pre-cpi low at 4135.87
Rejection at 4107.66 and a break of the 4096.70 higher low puts the range floor retest at risk
Failure to hold the higher-low trendline (~4090) exposes the 4073.55 session low
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims Thu 12:30 UTC (~15h) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI low at 4073.55, higher-low recovery capped under 4107.
The hot core CPI print at 12:30 UTC drove gold through the 4135.87 London low to a 4073.55 day low by 16:00 UTC. The late-NY recovery built higher lows along a rising tl but was rejected at 4106.52, near the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop. Price is now drifting back under the 4100 range floor into the daily close.
Support: 4,090.00, 4,080.42, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,106.52, 4,114.66
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4100 range floor and 4106.52 (38.2% fib) opens the 50% fib at 4114.66
A break of the rising tl near 4090 and the 4080.42 swing low exposes the 4073.55 day low
US PPI and Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC (~16h) could materially shift this read
Range break lower, higher lows off 4073, retest of 4100.
The hot core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke gold out of its range with a 67-dollar drop, extending to a 4073.55 day low in NY. The late-NY bounce has built higher lows and is stalling just under the 38.2% fib at the 4106.52 bounce high, with micro lows near 4098 holding as price sits on the 4100 former range floor.
Support: 4,098.00, 4,080.42, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,106.52, 4,114.66, 4,135.87
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4106.52 bounce high opens the fib 50% at 4114.66, then the london low at 4135.87
Loss of the 4098 micro lows turns 4100 into confirmed resistance and exposes the 4080.42 higher low
Break of the higher-low trendline and the 4073.55 day low resumes the post-CPI leg
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims Thu 12:30 UTC (~16h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 4073.55 NY low, capped at 4105–4108.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked gold from 4155 to 4085 in a single bar, and the NY low printed at 4073.55. Late NY hours built a series of higher lows along rising support. That rebound has stalled at the 4106.52 post-cpi cap, which sits at the 38.2% retrace of the CPI drop and just above the broken 4,100 range floor. RSI(14) is neutral near 51.
Support: 4,090.95, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,106.52, 4,135.87
What it said to watch
A close above the 4106.52 post-cpi cap opens the 50% retrace near 4114.7, then the 4135.87 London low
Loss of the 4090.95 higher low and the rising support line exposes the 4073.55 NY low
US PPI and Retail Sales due Thu 12:30 UTC (~16h) could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, corrective bounce in late NY · RSI 57 · price 4,099.98
Higher lows off 4073.55 retesting the broken 4100 floor from below.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked gold through the 4100 range floor, and NY extended the drop to a 4073.55 session low. Since then a higher-low chain off 4080.42 has carried price back up to test the floor from below. The late-NY push stalled at 4106.52, just short of the 4107.66 cpi high and the 38.2% retracement of the CPI drop, with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 4,089.68, 4,080.42, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,107.66, 4,135.87
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4107.66 cpi high clears the 38.2% retracement and opens the 4135.87 london low
A break of the 4089.68 minor low and the rising higher-low trendline ends the bounce structure and puts the 4073.55 session low back in view
The Thu 12:30 UTC PPI and Retail Sales cluster could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off 4073.55 day low, testing broken range floor.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked gold out of its 4135–4170 intraday range to a 4073.55 day low in NY hours. A late-NY higher-low chain has since lifted price back to the broken 4100 range floor, where it is pressing the 4106–4108 post-CPI high zone near the 38.2% of the CPI drop fib.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,080.42, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,107.66, 4,135.87
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4107.66 post-CPI high clears the 38.2% fib and opens 4135.87, the pre-CPI low
Failure to hold the 4100 range floor and the 4080.42 higher low breaks the rising trendline and reopens the 4073.55 day low
Thu 12:30 UTC PPI and Retail Sales cluster could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 4073.55 session low, retesting the broken 4100 range floor from below.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the Asian and London lows and the $4,100 range floor, and the slide bottomed at the 4073.55 session low during NY hours. Since then a higher-low chain at 4080.42 and the 4090.95 swing low has lifted price back to the 4100 range floor in thin late-NY trade. The 38.2% retrace of the CPI leg sits near 4105, just under the post-cpi hi at 4107.3.
Support: 4,090.95, 4,080.42, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,100.40, 4,107.29, 4,135.87
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4100 range floor and the post-cpi hi at 4107.3 turns the retest into a reclaim, with the 4135.87 london low next overhead
Rejection at 4100 followed by a break of the 4090.95 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 4080.42 higher low and the 4073.55 session low
Thu 12:30 UTC PPI and Retail Sales could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the session low, retesting broken range floor.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke the Asian range and the $4,100 range floor, and the NY session low printed at 4073.55. Late NY has carved higher lows at 4077.98 and 4080.42, and price is retesting the 4100 range floor from below. That sits between the 23.6% and 38.2% of the CPI drop fib, with the 4107 post-CPI high capping above.
Support: 4,080.42, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,107.29
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4100 range floor and the 4107 post-CPI high invalidates the retest read and targets the 38.2% fib near 4105
Break below the 4080 higher low reopens the 4073.55 session low
Thin liquidity after NY close into Asia session can exaggerate moves around 4100
Thu 12:30 UTC PPI and Retail Sales cluster could materially shift this read
18:47 UTC
Downtrend after CPI break, late-NY rebound in progress · RSI 48 · price 4,093.76
Post-CPI lower low at 4073.55, now rising lows below the broken 4100 range floor.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke gold out of its 4135–4170 session range. Price fell to 4079.72, through the 4100 range floor, and printed a lower low at the 4073.55 session low during NY hours. Late NY has since built rising lows, and price is pressing the 4096.04 swing high just below the range floor, with RSI(14) back near 48.
Support: 4,080.42, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,096.04, 4,100.00, 4,107.29
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4100 range floor opens a retest of the 4105–4107 cpi bounce highs, where the 38.2% of the cpi drop fib sits.
A break of the 4080.42 higher low ends the rising-lows sequence. Losing the 4073.55 session low resumes the post-CPI downtrend.
Beige Book read-through, Fed speaker reaction and Thursday's 12:30 UTC PPI / Retail Sales cluster could materially shift this read.
Break below range floor, higher-low chain off session low.
The hot core CPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked gold roughly $70 lower, through the 4,100 range floor, and set a session low at 4073.55 in NY hours. A higher-low chain since then has lifted price back to 4094, just under the old range floor. RSI(14) is neutral near 55.
Support: 4,080.42, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,107.66
What it said to watch
M15 closes back above the 4100 range floor would undercut the break; the 4105.8–4107.7 cpi high cluster aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the cpi drop fib
Failure to hold the 4080.42 higher low breaks the recovery chain and exposes the 4073.55 session low
Thu 12:30 UTC PPI / Retail Sales cluster could materially shift this read
Lower highs near 4107 cap the bounce; higher lows building off the 4073.55 session low.
Hot core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke gold through the 4100 range floor in a single bar. NY then printed lower highs near 4107 and a session low at 4073.55. Late NY, higher lows off that low have lifted price to the 50% post-CPI fib near 4091, where it is pressing ema20 from below.
Support: 4,080.42, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,100.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4100 range floor would reclaim the broken level; the 4107 lower high sits just above it
Loss of the 4080 higher low and the rising support line would re-expose the 4073.55 session low
Beige Book (18:00 UTC) wording on prices could extend the post-CPI move in thin late-NY trade
Thu 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales cluster is the next scheduled driver for USD and yields
Lower highs from 4107 since CPI; 4073–4091 compression below the broken 4100 range floor.
The hot core CPI print at 12:30 UTC drove a 70-point drop from 4155 through the 4100 range floor. NY session has since printed lower highs from the 4107 bounce high, with a session low at 4073.55 and a 4090.67 swing high capping price below the 23.6% fib of the CPI drop; RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 4,079.70, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,090.67, 4,100.00, 4,107.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4090.67 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Reclaim of the 4100 range floor would turn the CPI break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4079.7 post-cpi low and 4073.55 session low extends the lower-low chain
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC is landing now and could materially shift this read
Thu 12:30 UTC PPI and Retail Sales are the next event risk for the USD leg
Lower highs since the CPI drop; higher low at 4078 after the 4073.55 session low.
The hot core CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked gold about $70 through the $4,100 range floor, and NY-hours rebounds have printed lower highs below the 4107.66 post-CPI high. After London close, price is bouncing off a higher low at 4078 above the 4073.55 session low. It is pressing the 4090.67 bounce high just under EMA20 near 4093, with RSI(14) around 40.
Support: 4,077.98, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,090.67, 4,100.00, 4,107.66
What it said to watch
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC lands within the next bar or two and could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 4100 range floor and the 38.2% CPI drop fib near 4105 breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 4078 higher low, then the 4073.55 session low, extends the post-CPI downtrend
Thursday 12:30 UTC PPI and Retail Sales are the next scheduled USD catalyst
Post-CPI lower highs (4107, 4096); first higher low at 4078.6, price pressing the descending trendline.
The hot core CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke gold below the 4136–4170 Asian/London range in a single $69 bar. Lower highs at the 4107 cpi high and the 4096 swing high followed, ending at a 4073.55 session low. Late in NY hours, a higher low at 4078.6 has price pressing the descending trendline and ema20 (~4094), near the 23.6% fib and still under 4100 psych.
Support: 4,078.58, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,095.97, 4,100.00, 4,107.29
What it said to watch
Close above the 4096 swing high and the trendline opens 4100 psych, then the 4105–4107 cpi high at the 38.2% fib
Rejection at ema20 (~4094) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Loss of the 4078.6 higher low puts the 4073.55 session low back in play
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower-high chain, tight 4073–4084 base below $4,100.
The hot core CPI print at 12:30 UTC sent gold about $70 lower from 4155 and through the $4,100 range floor. NY then capped bounces at a post-CPI high of 4107.66 and a lower high near 4096 before printing a session low at 4073.55. After London close, price is coiling in a 4073–4084 band near 4080, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 4,073.55, 4,070.00
Resistance: 4,095.97, 4,100.00, 4,107.66
What it said to watch
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC, about 45 min out, could materially shift this read
A break of the 4073.55 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4070 round number
An M15 close above the 4096 lower high breaks the post-CPI lower-high chain
A reclaim of the 4100 range floor, which sits near the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop, would undercut the breakdown read
Post-CPI lower-high chain below the 4100 range floor; late-NY drift near 4080.
Hot core CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked gold out of the 4136–4170 Asian/London range in a single ~$70 bar, taking it through the 4100 range floor. NY has since printed lower highs at the 4107 bounce high and the 4096 lower high, then a session low at 4073.55. Price is now holding just above the 4080 post-cpi low after London close, with RSI(14) near 37 and no oversold extreme.
Support: 4,079.70, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,096.00, 4,100.00, 4,107.29
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4096 lower high and the 4100 range floor breaks the post-CPI lower highs chain
Failure to hold 4073.55 session low extends the downtrend sequence
4105–4107 bounce high sits at the 38.2% of the CPI drop fib; acceptance above it would mark a deeper retracement
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read
16:47 UTC
Downtrend after CPI flush, selling pace slowing · RSI 39 · price 4,083.27
Post-CPI lower highs; new session low 4073.55, small bounce.
The hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke price below the Asian range (4144–4170) in a single ~$67 bar, taking out 4100. Through the NY session, lower highs formed at the 4107.66 cpi bounce, then 4105.8 and the 4093.6 lower high, before a session low at 4073.55. RSI(14) sits near 39 and price is probing the lower-high line from the prior lows around 4080, with 4100 psych overhead.
Support: 4,079.70, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,093.60, 4,100.00, 4,107.66
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4093.6 lower high breaks the post-CPI lower-high sequence and opens 4100 psych.
4100 psych and the 4107.66 cpi bounce high sit just above the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop (~4105). A close back above that zone reclaims the drop.
Failure to hold the 4079.7 prior lows brings the 4073.55 session low back into play; a close below it extends the lower-low chain.
The Beige Book at 18:00 UTC (~75 min) could materially shift this read via yields and USD.
Post-CPI lower highs and lower lows beneath a 4105–4108 cap, pressing the session low.
The hot core CPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked gold through the Asian range low and the 4,100 range floor in a single $69 bar. NY hours have since printed lower highs at the 4107.66 post-cpi cap, 4105.81 and 4093.61, with Bowman's slot bringing a rejection near 4105. After London close, price is pressing the 4073.55 session low, and the 38.2% level of the CPI drop fib sits on that post-cpi cap.
Support: 4,073.55, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,093.61, 4,100.00, 4,107.66
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4100 range floor would turn the break into a false break
A close beneath the 4073.55 session low extends the lower-low chain, with little structure until the 4050 psych level
A close above the 4093.61 lower high breaks the post-CPI lower-high sequence
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower highs; 4080 base broken to fresh session low.
Hot core CPI at 12:30 UTC drove gold from 4155 through the $4,100 range floor. NY session has since printed lower highs at the 4107.66 cpi high, 4105.81 and 4095.97 under a falling trendline. The 4080 base held three times before giving way into a 4073.55 session low, with RSI(14) at 35 and short of oversold.
Support: 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,080.00, 4,095.97, 4,107.66
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the broken base at 4080 would turn the 16:00 UTC break into a false break
A move through the 4095.97 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the post-CPI lower-high chain
Reclaim of the $4,100 range floor and the 4107.66 cpi high, near the 38.2% of the cpi drop fib, invalidates the downtrend read
Acceptance below the 4073.55 session low extends lower lows, with no intraday structure beneath
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
15:47 UTC
Downtrend, post-CPI drop now consolidating · RSI 36 · price 4,085.82
Lower highs compressing onto a twice-tested 4080 low beneath broken 4100 range floor.
The hot core CPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked gold about $70 lower through the 4100 range floor. Through NY hours it has held a 4080–4108 box, with highs capped under the post-cpi top at 4107.66, the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop and EMA20 near 4105, while the cpi low at 4079.72 has been tested twice. RSI(14) at 36 is off the lows, and the lower-highs line now sits just above price near 4094.
Support: 4,079.72
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,107.66
What it said to watch
A break below the 4079.72 cpi low extends the post-CPI downtrend
A close back above the 4100 range floor shifts the read to a false break
Clearing the 4107.66 post-cpi top and the 38.2% fib reopens the pre-drop congestion
A break of the lower-highs line near 4094 would end the compression
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:32 UTC
Downtrend after CPI flush, now consolidating · RSI 38 · price 4,092.68
Post-CPI range 4080–4108 below the broken 4,100 floor, flat lower highs.
The hot core CPI print at 12:30 UTC took gold from 4152 to 4085 in a single bar. That break left the 4,100 range floor behind and the Asian low near 4144 well above. Through mid-NY session, price has chopped between the 4079.72 cpi low and the 4083 swing low on one side and the 4105–4108 post-cpi high band on the other, with three rejections just under the 38.2% retrace of the cpi leg and the falling ema20 near 4107.
Support: 4,083.28, 4,079.72
Resistance: 4,107.66
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close above 4108 (post-cpi high and 38.2% of the cpi leg) would reclaim the range floor and break the post-cpi highs line.
Failure to hold the 4083 swing low and 4079.72 cpi low would resume the CPI leg lower.
The Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could shift this read if it corroborates price pressures.
CPI range break below 4100, now a 4080–4108 box with lower highs.
The hot core CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke the Asian range, the 4135.87 london low and the 4100 range floor in a single $69 bar, bottoming at the 4079.72 cpi low. Since then NY has held a 4080–4108 consolidation, with lower highs capping just under the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop and 4100 now overhead, while the post-Bowman dip stopped at the 4083.3 swing low.
Support: 4,083.30, 4,079.72
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,106.50, 4,135.87
What it said to watch
An M15 close above 4106.5 (lower highs / 38.2% fib) reclaims the range floor and opens the path back toward the 4135.87 london low
Failure at the 4083.3 swing low and a break of the 4079.72 cpi low extends the post-CPI leg into fresh session lows
The Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
4080–4108 post-CPI range under the broken london low, higher low at 4086.65.
The hot core CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke the london low at 4135.87 in a single ~$69 bar and set the cpi low at 4079.72. Since then NY has held a 4080–4108 range: a higher low at 4086.65, three rejections at the post-cpi cap near 4107 (the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop), and price pinned just above the 4100 round number and below the ema20 near 4115.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,086.65, 4,079.72
Resistance: 4,107.66, 4,115.00, 4,135.87
What it said to watch
Bowman at 14:55 UTC, minutes away, could break the 4080–4108 range either way
M15 close above the 4107.66 post-cpi cap and 38.2% fib exposes the ema20 near 4115
A close below the 4100 round number and the 4086.65 higher low reopens the 4079.72 cpi low
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC is the next risk event for this range
A move back above the 4135.87 london low would unwind the CPI break
14:32 UTC
Downtrend after CPI flush, now basing below 4100 · RSI 37 · price 4,095.66
Post-CPI range 4079.72–4107.66, lower highs against a higher low.
Hot core CPI at 12:30 UTC took gold through the Asian range (4144–4170) and the London low at 4135.87 in one bar, with the move bottoming at the cpi low of 4079.72. Two bounces stalled at the cpi highs near 4107, just under the 38.2% of the CPI drop. Price is now coiling under psych 4100 off a higher low at 4086.65 in the first hour of NY.
Support: 4,086.65, 4,079.72
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,107.66, 4,135.87
What it said to watch
Bowman at 14:55 UTC could break the post-CPI range either way
M15 close back above psych 4100 and the 4107.66 cpi highs would open a retrace toward the london low at 4135.87
Loss of the 4086.65 higher low exposes the 4079.72 cpi low; a break there confirms a fresh lower-low
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk for this read
CPI flush below the London low, now basing under 4100.
Hot core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke price through the 4135.87 london low and dumped it from 4155 to the 4079.72 cpi low. The first-hour-of-NY rebound stalled at the 4107.29 bounce high, just shy of the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop. Price now sits early in the NY session below the 4100 range floor, with a higher low at 4086.65 and RSI(14) near 38 after the flush.
Support: 4,086.65, 4,079.72
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,107.29, 4,135.87
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4100 range floor and the 4107.29 bounce high reopens the 4135.87 london low
Failure to hold the 4086.65 higher low exposes the 4079.72 cpi low and extends the lower-low sequence
Bowman at 14:55 UTC and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
CPI range break lower, early-NY consolidation around 4100.
The hot core CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke price out of the London range. A ~$70 bar cut through the 4135.87 london low to a 4079.72 cpi low, and RSI(14) has recovered to ~33. The early-NY bounce stalled at 4107.29, just under the 38.2% level of the CPI drop fib, with price sitting on the 4100 round number.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,079.72
Resistance: 4,107.29, 4,135.87, 4,155.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4107.29 bounce high and the 38.2% fib (~4108.8) opens the 4117.7–4126.7 retracement zone
Failure to hold the 4100 round number exposes the 4079.72 cpi low
Reclaim of the 4135.87 london low would undo the CPI range break; the 4155.77 pre-CPI high caps the post-data move
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 UTC and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia, CPI flush to new session low.
Hot core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke gold through the london low at 4135.87 and the 4100 psych level to a cpi low of 4079.72. The bounce stalled at 4107.66, near the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop. Early NY session trade is basing just under 4100, extending the lower highs seen since the Asian session, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 4,079.72
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,107.66, 4,135.87
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4100 psych and the 4107.66 post-cpi hi would turn the CPI drop into a consolidation
A break below the 4079.72 cpi low extends the lower-low sequence
Any retrace into the 4135.87 london low is an area to watch for rejection
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 UTC and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:16 UTC
Downtrend, accelerated by CPI · RSI 24 · price 4,085.23
Lower highs since Asia; range floor broken.
The hot US core CPI (0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) sent gold about $70 lower in one bar, from the 4155.77 pre-CPI high through the 4135.87 london low and the 4100 range floor. The rebound stalled at 4107.66 (rebound high) and price is now pressing the 4081.21 cpi low early in the NY session, with RSI(14) near 24 and the lower highs line from Asia intact.
Support: 4,081.21, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,107.66, 4,135.87
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above 4100 would turn the range floor break into a false break; 4107.66 rebound high and the 38.2–50% of the cpi drop fib (4110–4118) sit above.
Failure to hold the 4081.21 cpi low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 4050 round number as the next marker.
RSI(14) at 24 is oversold after the CPI bar, and ATR has expanded to roughly 11 dollars.
Fed's Bowman (14:55 GMT) and the Beige Book (18:00 GMT) could reprice October hike odds and shift this read.
The 4135.87 london low now caps the lower highs line from the Asian session high.
Lower highs from Asian high, London range broken lower on CPI.
Hot US core CPI (0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) at 12:30 GMT broke gold out of its lower-highs drift. A single bar took out the london low at 4135.87 and the 4100 psych floor, printing the cpi low at 4085.22. The first NY-hour bounce stalled at the post-cpi hi of 4107.66, with RSI(14) near 23 and ATR(14) expanded to roughly 1025 pips.
Support: 4,085.22
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,107.66, 4,135.87
What it said to watch
Close back above the 4100 psych would mark the CPI move as a false break below the range floor
Failure to hold the cpi low at 4085.22 extends the lower-low sequence
Retracement into 38.2%–50% of the cpi drop fib (4112–4120) above the post-cpi hi tests the breakdown
Reclaim of the london low at 4135.87 would undo the break of the lower highs structure
Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Range floor lost on CPI bar, first post-release bar pausing just under 4100.
The 12:30 GMT US CPI bar flushed about $70, from the 4155.77 pre-release high to a 4085.22 cpi low. It cut through the 4135.87 london low and the $4,100 range floor that had held the Asian range (4144–4170) and the London drift. RSI(14) is near 19, and the first post-release bar is holding a tight 4091–4095 band just under 4100.
Support: 4,085.22, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,120.50, 4,135.87
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4100 range floor would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4085.22 cpi low exposes the 4050 round number
A rebound into the fib 50% at 4120.50, up to the 4135.87 london low, is the area to watch for rejection
ATR has roughly doubled on the CPI bar, so post-release swings are likely to stay wide
Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the Asian session high; London broke the Asian low, CPI bar extended the leg.
Gold dropped about $37 on the 12:30 GMT US CPI release to a cpi low of 4115.70. It recovered to 4132.89, still below the london low at 4135.87, which lines up with the 50% fib of the drop. London had already broken under the asian low at 4144.49, and the pre-cpi high at 4155.77 kept the lower highs sequence intact.
Support: 4,115.70, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,135.87, 4,144.49, 4,155.77
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 4135.87 london low (50% fib) would turn the CPI bar into a rejection of the lows
Failure to hold the 4115.70 cpi low exposes the 4100 range floor
Close back above the 4144.49 asian low and the lower highs line near 4156 (pre-cpi high) invalidates the descending sequence
Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could shift the post-CPI read
London lower highs broken by pre-CPI pop; price at 38.2% retrace.
London broke below the asian low at 4144.50 to a session low of 4135.87 as gold stayed heavy into CPI. The 12:00 GMT bar then cleared the London downtrend line and reclaimed 4150, putting price at the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-London decline with the london high at 4157.67 overhead. RSI(14) is near 59.
Support: 4,144.50, 4,135.87
Resistance: 4,157.67, 4,164.00, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) lands next bar and can override this structure
An M15 close above the london high at 4157.67 (61.8% retrace) opens the asia ceiling at 4164 and then the asian high at 4170.40
A close back below the asian low at 4144.50 marks the London downtrend line break as a false break
Loss of the 4135.87 session low extends the lower-low sequence
12:04 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 39 · price 4,140.32
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4170.40 Asian high; Asian low broken in London.
London broke below the Asian low at 4144.49 and ground lower in a lower-high chain to a session low of 4135.87, with gold heavy as 10y yields hold near 5.22% into CPI. Late London price is compressing in 4136–4145, below the descending lower-highs line, with RSI(14) near 39 and not stretched.
Support: 4,135.87, 4,130.00
Resistance: 4,144.49, 4,157.67, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, minutes away, could materially shift this read; core m/m vs 0.2% is the swing factor
Failure to hold the 4135.87 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4130 round number
M15 close back above the 4144.49 Asian low negates the range break
Close above the lower-highs line and the 4157.67 swing high (near the 61.8% fib) breaks the downtrend structure; the 4170.40 Asian high is next
Lower highs from 4170.40; Asian range broken lower in London.
Gold has carved a lower-high sequence off the 4170.40 Asian high. London broke the 4144.49 Asian low and extended to a 4135.87 session low as 10y yields held near 5.22% into CPI. Late London is now compressing tightly just above that low, with RSI(14) near 34 and ranges narrowing.
Support: 4,135.87, 4,130.00
Resistance: 4,144.49, 4,157.67, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) lands within the hour and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 4135.87 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4130 round number
Reclaim of the 4144.49 Asian low, then a close above the lower-high line toward the 4157.67 swing high (near the 61.8% fib), would break the downtrend read
A move back through the 4170.40 Asian high would fully negate the London breakdown
Lower highs and lower lows since 4170.40, trading below the Asian range.
London broke below the Asian low at 4144.49, and every bounce since the 4157.67 London high has been capped by a falling trendline, printing a session low of 4135.87 late in London. Gold is drifting heavy into US CPI on firm yields. RSI(14) near 32 is soft but not extreme.
Support: 4,135.87, 4,130.00
Resistance: 4,144.49, 4,149.10, 4,157.67
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (about 1h) could materially shift this read; ATR near 505 pips understates likely release volatility
A sustained break below the 4135.87 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4130 round number
Reclaiming the Asian low at 4144.49 and the falling trendline near 4149 (fib 38.2) would neutralise the downtrend read
A move back above the 4157.67 London high breaks the lower-high sequence
Lower highs from 4170.40; Asian range low broken in London.
London broke below the Asian low at 4144.49 and pressed to a session low of 4135.87. The lower-highs line from the 4170.40 Asian high is intact, with the London high at 4157.67 the latest cap. Gold is heavy into US CPI as ~5.22% 10y yields offset a softer USD; RSI(14) near 33 is soft, not stretched.
Support: 4,135.87, 4,130.00
Resistance: 4,144.49, 4,157.67, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC, core m/m vs 0.2%, could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the asian low at 4144.49 would mark the break as a false break
Close above the lower-highs line and the 4157.67 london high breaks the descending sequence
Failure to hold the 4135.87 session low exposes the 4130 round number
Rebounds into the 4149–4152 zone (38.2–50% retrace from Asian high to session low) are where supply has capped so far
10:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing at the lows · RSI 44 · price 4,144.77
Lower highs from 4170.40; London broke below the Asian range, now a tight range.
London broke below the Asian range low near 4144.5 and printed a fresh session low at 4139.63. That extends the lower-high sequence from the 4170.40 Asian high, with firm ~5.22% Treasury yields weighing on gold. Since the 4157.67 lower high, price has compressed inside a 4139.6–4145.7 range, with RSI(14) neutral in the mid-40s ahead of US CPI.
Support: 4,139.63, 4,130.00
Resistance: 4,145.71, 4,157.67, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (under 2h) could materially shift this read; core m/m vs 0.2% is the swing factor
Failure to hold the 4139.63 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4130 psych level
An M15 close above the 4145.71 range top puts the 4157.67 lower high and the descending trendline back in focus
A close above the 4157.67 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; the 4170.40 Asian high sits above
Lower highs and lower lows below the Asian range; tight compression above 4140.
London broke below the Asian low at 4144.5 and extended to a session low at 4140.4. Lower highs have stepped down from the 4170.4 Asian high, and the 4157.7 lower high capped the last bounce. Bars have compressed to a 3–4 dollar range with RSI(14) near 40 as traders wait on US CPI, keeping gold heavy in its 4100–4200 range.
Support: 4,140.39, 4,130.00
Resistance: 4,144.49, 4,157.67, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read; core vs 0.2% m/m is the swing factor
Failure to hold the 4140.4 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4130 round number
M15 close back above the 4144.5 Asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
Break of the lower-high trendline and a close above 4157.7 invalidates the intraday downtrend read; 4170.4 Asian high is next
Bowman at 14:55 UTC could extend the post-CPI move during NY hours
Lower highs and lower lows, trading below the Asian range low.
London broke the Asian low at 4144.49 and set a session low at 4140.76. Rallies keep stalling under a falling resistance line from the 4170.40 Asian high, with the latest lower high at 4157.67. RSI(14) sits near 36, soft but not oversold, as gold grinds into the 4140-4130 zone on firm yields ahead of US CPI.
Support: 4,140.76, 4,130.00
Resistance: 4,144.49, 4,157.67, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
A close back above the asian low at 4144.49 would turn the London break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4140.76 session low exposes the 4130 round number
A close above the 4157.67 lower high breaks the falling resistance sequence, with the 4170.40 asian high next
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 36 · price 4,143.38
Asian range broken lower in London; LH/LL chain intact.
London broke below the asian low at 4144.49 and printed a session low at 4140.76. That extends the lower-high line running down from the 4170.40 asian high, with yields near 5.22% weighing into US CPI. The 08:15 bounce stalled at the 4157.67 london high, inside the 50–61.8% fib of the drop; RSI(14) near 36 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 4,140.76, 4,130.00
Resistance: 4,144.49, 4,157.67, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4144.49 asian low turns the London break into a false break
Close above the 4157.67 london high breaks the lower-high line
Failure to hold the 4140.76 session low confirms another lower-low, with the 4130 round number next
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; core m/m vs 0.2% is the swing factor
Lower highs from 4170.40; London broke the Asian range low.
London broke the 4144.49 Asian range low and printed a 4140.76 session low. That extends the lower-high chain from the 4170.40 Asian high, and price is now retesting the break from below, with the 4146.98 prior low overhead. Gold is heavy into US CPI as 10y yields hold near 5.22%.
Support: 4,140.76, 4,130.00
Resistance: 4,146.98, 4,157.67, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4146.98 prior low and the 4157.67 lower high breaks the lower-high line and negates the range break
Failure to hold the 4140.76 session low opens the 4130 round number
Rebound to the 50% retrace (~4155.6) of the asian high to session low leg is the first test of the sell-off
Fed's Bowman 09:40 UTC and US CPI 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asian high, price testing the session low early in London.
Gold is pressing the 4143.03 session low about two hours into London. It has slipped under the Asian range low at 4144.49 and the prior low at 4146.98 as 10y yields near 5.22% weigh into CPI. Lower highs from the 4170.40 Asian high down to the 4157.67 London high, where the 08:15 UTC bounce met rejection, keep the descending trendline intact, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 4,143.03, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,146.98, 4,157.67, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4146.98 prior low neutralises the break below the Asian range
Failure to hold the 4140 round number exposes the 4130 end of the support zone
Close above the descending trendline and 4157.67 london high breaks the lower-high chain
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
08:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into a flat base · RSI 41 · price 4,149.89
Lower-high chain from 4170.40 pressing onto 4143-4146 lows.
Gold's third-day slide continued as yields held near 5.22%. Early London took out the asian low at 4144.49, printing a 4143.19 london low, and the rebound stalled at the 4157.67 london high, near the 50% retrace of the fall from the 4170.40 asian high. That high was the latest in a chain of lower highs, with price back near 4150 into CPI.
Support: 4,143.19, 4,130.00
Resistance: 4,157.67, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4157.67 london high breaks the lower-high chain and the trendline
Failure to hold the 4143.19 london low exposes the 4140-4130 support zone
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman at 09:40 UTC first
Reclaim of the 4170.40 asian high would negate the session's downtrend structure
Lower highs into a flat 4143–4146 floor; early London swept the Asian low and recovered.
Gold has held a 4143–4170 range since the late-NY slide from 4193, with Asia printing lower highs under a falling trendline as 5.22% yields keep the metal heavy into CPI. Early London swept the Asian low at 4144.5 to a london low of 4143.2, then rebounded to 4155. Price now sits on ema20, between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the Asian high to London low move, with a higher low at 4148.4.
Support: 4,148.40, 4,143.20
Resistance: 4,163.80, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
A close above the falling trendline near 4158 and the 4163.8 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence; the 4170.4 asian high is the range top
Losing the 4148.4 higher low and a close below the 4143.2 london low would extend the late-NY slide
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) is the likely range-break catalyst; Bowman at 09:40 UTC is earlier event risk
08:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 37 · price 4,148.44
Lower-high chain from 4170.40; London open holding just under the Asian low.
Asia ranged 4144.49–4170.40, printing lower highs off the asian high. A supply cap near 4163.8 rejected three spikes. Early London nudged just under the Asian low to a london low at 4143.19 and stalled, pinning price in a tight 4143–4152 box below both EMAs as gold stays heavy into CPI on 5.22% yields.
Support: 4,143.19, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,152.00, 4,163.80, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4143.19 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4140 round number and the 4140–4130 zone
Close back above the 4152 london high returns price to the Asian range
Reclaim of the 4163.8 supply cap breaks the lower-high trendline
Bowman 09:40 UTC and US CPI 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 06:00 UTC; London opened marginally below Asian low.
After yesterday's NY slide from 4190 to 4147, Asia ranged 4144.5–4170.4, with spikes repeatedly capped at the 4163–4166 range top. London opened with a marginal break of the Asian low to a london low of 4143.19. Lower highs have built since 06:00 UTC, with the most recent lower high at 4155.74, as 5.22% yields and hike bets weigh ahead of CPI. RSI(14) at 39 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 4,143.19, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,155.74, 4,163.81, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4143.19 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4140 round number and the 4130s
Close above the 4155.74 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; reclaiming the 4163.81 range top re-opens the asian high at 4170.4
US CPI 12:30 UTC (core vs 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman at 09:40 UTC is earlier event risk
07:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 39 · price 4,144.68
Lower-high sequence from 4170.40, Asian range low under pressure at London open.
Early London is pushing marginally through the Asian low at 4144.49 to a 24h low of 4143.19, below yesterday's NY prior low at 4146.98, and extends the lower-high sequence from the 4170.40 Asian high. Repeated spike highs near 4164 were rejected through Asia. Gold stays heavy on 5.22% yields into CPI, with RSI(14) near 39 and not oversold.
Support: 4,143.19, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,146.98, 4,163.80, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4147 (prior low) would undercut the break of the Asian range
Acceptance below the 4140 round number extends the downtrend toward the 4130 zone
Close above 4164 spike highs breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 4170.40 asian high
Bowman 09:40 UTC and US CPI 12:30 UTC; core vs 0.2% m/m could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Range after NY selloff, lower highs pressing the floor · RSI 39 · price 4,147.81
Lower highs from 4170.40 into a flat 4145 floor tested four times.
Gold slid from 4190 to 4147 during NY hours yesterday as yields climbed. The Asian range ran 4144.5–4170.4, with lower highs since the 4170.40 Asian high, and the first London bars are pressing the 4145 Asian low for a fourth time, RSI(14) near 39 ahead of US CPI.
Support: 4,145.00, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,155.70, 4,163.80, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4145 asian low breaks the range floor, with the 4140 round number next
Reclaim of the 4155.7 lower high, then the 4163.8 spike high, negates the lower-highs line
A move through the 4170.4 asian high would clear the session range
US CPI 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) and Bowman 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
At London open gold is back on the 4144–4147 floor. That floor holds the Asian low and yesterday's NY low, and it rejected four tests overnight, while Asian highs stepped lower from the 4170.40 asian high to the 4163.81 rebound high and the 4155.74 lower high. RSI(14) sits near 38. Treasury yields at 5.22% are keeping rallies capped ahead of US CPI.
Support: 4,144.49, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,155.74, 4,163.81, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4144.49 asian low breaks the overnight base and exposes the 4140 round number
Close back above the 4155.74 lower high, then the 4163.81 rebound high, breaks the lower-highs line; the 4170.40 asian high marks the top of the session range
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Sideways, lower highs into London open · RSI 41 · price 4,151.77
Asian range 4144–4170, highs stepping down onto the floor.
Gold extended Tuesday's NY slide to the 4144.49 asian low, then spent Asia in a 4144–4170 range with three lower highs (4170.40, 4167.02, 4163.81). Price sits at 4151.77, below both EMAs, as London opens. Demand has held the 4145–4147 floor three times while the 4163–4164 range cap rejected every push, coiling ahead of US CPI.
Support: 4,144.49, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,163.80, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
Close below the 4144.49 asian low breaks the range and exposes the 4140 round number
Close above the 4163.80 range cap and the falling lower-highs line negates the compression; the 4170.40 asian high is next
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Bowman at 09:40 UTC is earlier risk
4144–4170 range below a descending lower-high line; floor swept and reclaimed.
Gold has ranged 4144–4170 since Tuesday's NY selloff from the 4189.6 NY high, which came as 10y yields climbed to 5.22%. The last bar of the Asia session swept the 4146 lows and closed back near 4162, the third rejection of the range floor. Price is now pinned at the EMAs near the 38.2% retracement and range mid, with lower highs capping below the 4170 Asia high.
Support: 4,155.00, 4,144.50
Resistance: 4,167.00, 4,170.40, 4,189.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4144.5 range floor confirms a lower-low below the swept lows
Close above the 4170.4 Asia high breaks the lower-high line and opens the 4189.6 NY high
Fib 50% at 4167 is the first area to watch for rejection or break inside the range
Range mid at 4155 is the first area to watch for a hold or break on any pullback
US CPI at 12:30 UTC, core m/m f/c 0.2%, could materially shift this read; Bowman at 09:40 UTC is earlier risk
06:04 UTC
Intraday down-leg, lower highs since 03:15 UTC · RSI 38 · price 4,148.41
Lower-high sequence inside the 4144–4170 Asian range, price at range base.
Late Asia session has produced lower highs at 4170.40, 4167.02 and 4163.16. The 05:45 UTC bar broke the 4156 breakdown shelf and brought price back onto yesterday's NY low at 4146.98, just above the 4144.49 Asian low, ahead of the London open. Gold is drifting at the base of its range into today's US CPI as 5.2% yields cap rebounds.
Support: 4,146.98, 4,144.49
Resistance: 4,156.00, 4,163.16, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4144.49 asian low clears both session lows and confirms a lower-low below the Asian range
Recovery above the 4156 breakdown level and the falling lower-high trendline near 4163 would put the 4170.40 asian high back in play
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC could shift the read during London hours
US CPI at 12:30 UTC, core MoM f/c 0.2%, is the main risk to this structure
Asian range 4144.49–4170.40; lower highs pressing onto the 4156 shelf.
Asia swept Tuesday's NY low near 4147 to print the 4144.49 asian low, then rebounded to an asian high at 4170.40. Lower highs at 4167 and 4163 have since pushed price back onto the 4156 shelf, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of that rebound. Late-Asia tape is quiet with RSI(14) near 45 and price below both EMAs, as gold holds the low end of its range ahead of US CPI.
Support: 4,155.60, 4,144.49, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,163.16, 4,170.40, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4156 shelf exposes the 4144.49 asian low, then the 4140 round number
Close above the 4163 lower high and the descending trendline reopens the 4170.40 asian high
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read; the 4200.49 prior high caps the range
London open around 07:00 UTC is the first test of whether the asian range holds
05:31 UTC
Neutral, compressing after Asia rebound · RSI 50 · price 4,160.43
Asian range 4144–4170; lower highs and higher lows tightening around the 50% fib.
After Tuesday's NY slide from 4189 on firmer yields, Asia briefly undercut the 4147 NY low to 4144.5 before rebounding to a 4170.4 asian high. Late in the Asian session, price is coiling between a 4167 lower high and the 4155.6 intraday low, holding near the 50% fib of that rebound. RSI(14) is flat around 50 ahead of London open and US CPI.
Support: 4,155.60, 4,144.50
Resistance: 4,167.00, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4155.6 intraday low exposes the 4144.5 asian low and the sweep reversal
M15 close above the 4167 lower high and 4170.4 asian high breaks the compression
US CPI 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Sideways, compressing after NY sell-off · RSI 53 · price 4,161.56
Inside Asian range 4144–4170, lower highs vs higher lows.
Late Asia session is trading mid-range inside the 4144.49–4170.40 Asian range. An early sweep below yesterday's NY low at 4146.98 was reclaimed within the hour. Price is now compressing between a lower-highs line from the Asian high and a higher-lows line off the asian low, with the 04:15 swing low at 4155.64 holding near the 61.8% Asian range fib. RSI(14) is neutral around 53 and the EMAs are flat as gold holds above 4150 into US CPI.
Support: 4,155.64, 4,144.49
Resistance: 4,167.02, 4,170.40, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; expect ATR(14) near $6.50 to expand on the print
M15 close below the 4155.64 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence and puts the 4144.49 asian low back in play
Close above the 4167.02 swing high and 4170.40 asian high breaks the lower-highs compression and opens the path toward the 4200.49 prior high
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC is earlier headline risk during the London session
05:05 UTC
Range after sell-off, recovering in late Asia · RSI 58 · price 4,165.68
Asian range 4144–4170, higher low at 4155.64.
Asia dipped through Tuesday's 4146.98 low to an asian low at 4144.49 and reversed, carving a 4144–4170 range. A higher low at 4155.64, near the 0.618 of the Asian leg, has price pressing the range top into the London open. Tuesday's NY slide from the 4190.78 selloff top tracked 10y yields climbing to 5.22%.
Support: 4,155.64, 4,144.49
Resistance: 4,170.40, 4,190.78
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4170.40 asian high breaks the Asian range, with the 4190.78 selloff top next
Loss of the 4155.64 higher low returns focus to the 4144.49 asian low
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 UTC
Asian range 4144–4170; higher low at 4155.64 after a sweep of the NY low.
Gold slid from 4189 through the NY session to 4146.98 as yields and Fed-hike bets weighed. During Asia it swept that low to 4144.49 and reclaimed it, then printed a 4155.64 higher low at roughly the 0.57 retracement. Price is at 4166.6 in late Asia, just under the 4170.40 asian high, with RSI(14) neutral and pre-CPI conditions choppy.
Support: 4,155.64, 4,144.49
Resistance: 4,170.40, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4170.40 asian high breaks the Asian range and leaves 4189 and the 4200.49 day high as the next references
Failure to hold the 4155.64 higher low returns focus to the 4144.49 asian low and the sweep zone
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~8h) and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read; London open is about 2h away
Lower highs from 4200; Asia false break below NY low, higher low at 4155.64.
Tuesday's slide from the 4200.49 high bottomed at 4146.98 in NY as yields pushed to 5.22%. Asia briefly broke that low to the 4144.49 asian low, reclaimed it and set a 4170.40 asian high. The late-Asia pullback held a higher low at 4155.64 inside the asian leg fib's 50–61.8% zone; price is pressing EMA50 from below with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 4,155.64, 4,144.49
Resistance: 4,170.40, 4,188.93
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4170.40 asian high opens the 4188.93 ny rejection spike from Tuesday
Failure to hold the 4155.64 higher low returns focus to the 4144.49 asian low; a break there resumes the lower-low sequence toward 4140/4130
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~8h, core 0.2% m/m f/c) and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-selloff range 4144–4170 after false break of NY low.
Gold sold off from the 4200.49 prior high through the NY session as yields climbed, bottoming at the 4146.98 NY low. The Asian session briefly undercut it to the 4144.49 asian low before snapping back, a false break. The rebound stalled at the 4170.40 asian high, just under the 50% fib of the 4200 drop, and price is now drifting back to 4155 below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 4,146.98, 4,144.49
Resistance: 4,164.00, 4,170.40, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4144.49 asian low negates the false break and exposes the 4130–4140 zone
Reclaim of the 4164 pivot, where highs clustered repeatedly, reopens the 4170.40 asian high and the 50% fib
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~8h) and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near 650 pips is set to expand
04:04 UTC
Downtrend from 4200, bouncing off the lows · RSI 52 · price 4,162.11
Lower highs since the NY selloff; Asian sweep of the low, now mid-range.
The NY session slid from the 4190.78 NY high to 4147 as 10y yields pushed to 5.22%. The Asia session then swept that low to 4144.49 and reclaimed it, bouncing to the 4170.40 Asian high, below the 61.8% of the NY selloff fib. Price has faded back to 4162, at the 38.2%, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and the 4155 Asia pivot below.
Support: 4,155.00, 4,144.49
Resistance: 4,170.40, 4,190.78
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~8.5h) could materially shift this read; core m/m vs the 0.2% forecast is the swing factor
Failure to hold the 4144.49 sweep low confirms a lower low after the reclaim
M15 close above the 4170.40 Asian high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 4190.78 NY high
Loss of the 4155 Asia pivot returns price to the lower half of the Asian range
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC is a pre-CPI headline risk
03:32 UTC
Intraday rebound inside a broader slide from 4200 · RSI 52 · price 4,165.20
Asian sweep of the NY low reclaimed, higher lows since.
Asia dipped below the 4146.98 NY low to a 4144.49 Asian low and reclaimed it within a bar. The rebound off the Asian low has since printed higher lows into a 4170.40 session high, with RSI(14) neutral near 52, while 5.22% 10y yields keep gold heavy below the 4189.57 NY high and the 4200 prior high ahead of CPI.
Support: 4,159.00, 4,144.49
Resistance: 4,170.40, 4,189.57, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4159 higher low, near the 38.2% of the Asian rebound, exposes the 4144.49 Asian low
M15 close above the 4170.40 session high opens the 4189.57 NY high, then the 4200.49 prior high
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~9h) and Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from NY high; Asia swept the NY low and reclaimed it, now printing a higher low.
Gold bled from the 4190.78 NY high to a 4146.98 NY low as 10y yields pushed to 5.22% after the earlier failure near 4200. Mid-Asia, price swept that NY low to a 4144.49 session low, reclaimed it, and has lifted to the 50% fib of the drop at the session high of 4168.74, with RSI(14) neutral near 58.
Support: 4,158.97, 4,146.98, 4,144.49
Resistance: 4,168.74, 4,173.14, 4,190.78
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4168.74 session high exposes the 61.8% fib at 4173.14. Rejection there keeps the lower-high sequence from the NY high intact.
Failure to hold the 4158.97 higher low breaks the Asia rebound trendline and reopens the 4146.98 NY low and the 4144.49 session low.
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read.
03:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, Asia rebound challenging it · RSI 57 · price 4,167.81
NY low swept, then higher lows into session high.
Gold slid from the 4189.6 NY high as 10y yields climbed to 5.22% ahead of CPI. Asia then took out the NY low at 4146.98, printed a 4144.49 swing low and reversed, and price is now pressing the 4168.2 session high near the 50% retracement of that drop. The 4173.1 ny pivot sits at the 61.8% level, just above the descending trendline price is testing.
Support: 4,154.50, 4,144.49
Resistance: 4,168.20, 4,173.10, 4,189.60
What it said to watch
A close above the 4173.1 ny pivot and 61.8% opens the path back to the 4189.6 ny high
Rejection at the 4168.2 session high with a slip below the 4154.5 asia floor puts the 4144.49 swing low back in focus
Holding above the descending trendline from 4189.6 keeps the post-sweep reversal read intact
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~9.5h) could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling in Asian range · RSI 51 · price 4,159.18
Lower highs from 4200.49; Asia swept the 4146.98 swing low, then recovered into a 4144–4166 range.
Gold printed lower highs from the 4200.49 early-Tuesday high through the NY session as 10y yields climbed toward 5.22% and Williams' hawkish remarks fed hike bets ahead of CPI. Late in the Asia session, price swept below the 4146.98 swing low to a 4144.49 session low and recovered. It now sits mid-range on EMA20, with the 4154.5 pivot low below and the 4166.12 session high above. That high lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 4200 drop.
Support: 4,154.50, 4,144.49
Resistance: 4,166.12, 4,173.14
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4166.12 session high (38.2% fib) puts the 4173.14 lower high (50% fib) in play
Loss of the 4154.5 pivot low reopens the 4144.49 session low; acceptance below it extends the lower-low sequence
Bowman at 09:40 UTC during London hours could jolt the Asian range
US CPI at 12:30 UTC; a core print at or above 0.3% m/m could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 51 · price 4,161.66
Lower highs from 4200; Asia range 4144–4166 after sweep of NY low.
Gold has stepped lower since the failure at the 4200.49 prior high, with NY selling extending to the 4146.98 NY low as rising yields and Fed hike bets weighed ahead of CPI. Asia session whipsawed in wide bars, sweeping the NY low to a 4144.49 session low before reclaiming toward 4161. Price sits just above flat EMA20/50, mid-RSI, below the 4166.12 session high.
Support: 4,155.00, 4,146.98, 4,144.49
Resistance: 4,166.12, 4,173.00, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4166.12 session high opens the 4173 NY pivot and breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 4155 asia lows puts the 4146.98 NY low and 4144.49 session low back in play
Hold of 4144.49 after the sweep keeps the Asia range intact into London
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
Asia whipsaw inside NY selloff; sweep below NY low reclaimed.
Gold slid from 4190.78 during NY hours as 10y yields pushed to 5.22%. Asia whipsawed between the 4144.49 asian low, which swept the 4146.98 NY low, and the 4166.12 asian high. Price is back near 4159, close to the 38.2% fib of the NY selloff, with RSI(14) neutral at 48.
Support: 4,154.50, 4,144.49
Resistance: 4,166.12, 4,173.14
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4166 asian high breaks the lower-high chain; the 4173 lower high sits next
Failure to hold the 4154.5 asia shelf puts the 4144.49 sweep low back in focus
Bowman 09:40 UTC and US CPI 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR already about $6.80 per bar
02:03 UTC
Downtrend, basing in Asia · RSI 45 · price 4,155.67
Lower highs from 4200.49; Asia swept the NY low and reclaimed 4155.
Gold extended the NY-session slide from 4200.49. Asia dipped below the 4146.98 NY low to a 4144.49 session low, then reclaimed 4155. The Asian range of 4144–4166 sits under the 38.2% fib and a falling trendline, with 5.22% 10y yields capping rebounds ahead of CPI.
Support: 4,144.49, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,166.12, 4,172.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4166.12 asian high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 50% fib at 4172.50 next
Failure to hold the 4144.49 session low exposes the 4140 psych level
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Downtrend off NY high, basing near 4147 · RSI 54 · price 4,164.01
Lower highs since 4189.6; double low at 4147 holding.
Early Asia dipped below the 4155 asia lows to 4147.55, then a $17 reversal bar closed at 4164.7, matching the 4147 double low from the NY session. Price now sits at the 38.2% fib of the 4189.6 ny high to 4147 drop, just under the 4166.5 bounce high, with yields and pre-CPI Fed hike bets still the headwind.
Support: 4,155.00, 4,147.00
Resistance: 4,166.50, 4,173.20, 4,189.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4166.5 bounce high completes the double bottom and opens the 61.8% fib at 4173.2
Return below the 4155 asia lows turns the reversal bar into a failed bounce
Break of the 4147 double low resumes the lower-low sequence from the 4189.6 ny high
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could reset this structure
Lower-high chain from 4200.49; overnight 4154.50–4163.69 range breaking lower.
Gold has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 4200.49 Asia high. NY's slide to the 4146.98 ny low gave a bounce that stalled at 4166.51, the bounce high, close to the 38.2% retracement of the decline. Early Asia is now slipping under the asia shelf at 4154.50 to a fresh session low near 4150, with RSI(14) near 33 and 5.22% 10y yields plus Fed hike bets weighing ahead of CPI.
Support: 4,146.98, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,154.50, 4,163.69, 4,166.51
What it said to watch
A close below the ny low at 4146.98 extends the lower-low chain toward the 4140 round number.
A recovery back above the asia shelf at 4154.50, and then the 4163.69 asia high, would break the lower-highs sequence.
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; core CPI is the swing factor.
Lower highs under 4166.5, tight Asian range 4153–4164.
Gold broke down from the 4180–4194 London range in NY hours. Climbing yields drove the slide to the 4146.98 prior low, and the rebound stalled at the 4166.51 swing high, just under the 38.2% fib. Asia is printing lower highs inside a 4153–4164 range below EMA20/EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 4,153.29, 4,146.98
Resistance: 4,163.69, 4,166.51
What it said to watch
Break of the 4153.29 asia low exposes the 4146.98 prior low
M15 close above the 4163.69 asia high and the 4166.51 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reclaims the 38.2% fib
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4200; tight Asian range near the lows.
Gold faded from the 4200.49 Asia high through NY hours as 10y yields climbed toward 5.22%, putting in a NY low at 4146.98. The bounce stalled at 4166.51, just under the 38.2% fib retrace. Early Asia is holding a 4154.64–4163.69 range. Price sits near the asian low, below both EMAs, and the falling trendline from the 4189.57 lower high is still capping.
Support: 4,154.64, 4,146.98, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,163.69, 4,166.51, 4,173.14
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4154.64 asian low exposes the 4146.98 ny low, with the 4140 area beyond
Close above the 4163.69 asian high and the 4166.51 bounce high breaks the falling trendline sequence; 4173.14 lower high is next
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~12h) could reset this range
00:32 UTC
Downtrend from 4200, now consolidating · RSI 50 · price 4,161.25
Lower highs after the 4200.49 high; 4147–4167 range since the NY low.
Gold has held a 4147–4167 band since the NY low at 4146.98, with rebounds capped around the 38.2% retrace of the ny drop from 4189.57. Heavy 5.22% 10y yields keep the metal pinned. Early Asia trades 4154.85–4163.69 so far, with buyers stepping in at the asian low; RSI(14) is flat near 50.
Support: 4,154.85, 4,146.98
Resistance: 4,163.69, 4,166.51, 4,173.14
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4166.51 range top exposes the 4173.14 lower high and the 50% of the ny drop
Break of the 4154.85 asian low re-exposes the 4146.98 ny low
Repeated rejection at the 4163.69 asian high keeps price inside the range
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~12h), with Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC beforehand, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4200.49, then a 4147–4167 range; early Asia range 4154.85–4163.69.
Gold bled from the 4200.49 high to the 4146.98 NY low as yields climbed and the market leaned hawkish ahead of CPI. It has since held a 4147–4167 consolidation, and early Asia set a 4154.85–4163.69 range with price pressing the asian high. Price is capped below the range top near the 38.2% fib at 4167.4.
Support: 4,154.85, 4,146.98
Resistance: 4,163.69, 4,166.51
What it said to watch
A close above the 4166.51 range top and the 38.2% fib breaks the consolidation's upper edge
Failure to hold the 4154.85 asian low reopens the 4146.98 ny low
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high below rebound high, early Asia pressing session low.
NY session broke the London low near 4180 and slid to the ny low at 4146.98 as 10y yields climbed to 5.22% and Williams backed another hike. The rebound stalled at 4166.51, just under the 38.2% retrace of the 4200 drop. Early Asia has printed a lower session high at 4162.94 and is pressing the session low at 4154.85.
Support: 4,154.85, 4,146.98, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,162.94, 4,166.51, 4,179.74
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the ny low at 4146.98 extends the lower-low chain toward the 4140 psych area
M15 close above the session high at 4162.94 and the rebound high at 4166.51 invalidates the lower-high read
Reclaim of the london low near 4180 needed to unwind the NY selloff
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~12h), with core the swing factor, could materially shift this read