XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 15 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Late-NY up leg fading, Asia printing lower highs · RSI 42 · price 4,156.96
False break above 4168, price back inside Thursday's 4144–4168 range.
Gold pushed through the 4161–4168 cap to a 4177.36 NY high late Thursday as yields slid. Early Asia has unwound that move in a steady run of lower highs, taking price back below the prior high cluster and EMA20, with EMA50 sitting just overhead near 4158. The asia low at 4156.34 lines up with the 61.8% retracement of the NY leg; RSI(14) is at 42 and ATR(14) is near 395 pips.
Support: 4,156.34, 4,144.00, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,168.66, 4,177.36
What it said to watch
A close below the asia low and 61.8% fib at 4156.34 exposes the ny low near 4144, with the ppi low at 4130.37 beneath
A recovery above the prior high at 4161.75 and the post-ppi hi at 4168.66 would negate the false-break read; the ny high at 4177.36 is the session cap
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~3.75h) and could materially shift this read
Late-NY breakout above post-data range, lower highs through Asia.
Gold broke above the 4,143–4,168 post-PPI range late in NY as yields slid, printing a 4,177.36 session high. The new Asia session has faded steadily with lower highs from the 4,172.6 asia high. Price is now at the 50% retracement of the 4,143.8–4,177.4 leg, retesting the 4,158 prior shelf, with RSI(14) near 44 and price below EMA20.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4,158 prior shelf undercuts the breakout and exposes the 4,144 ny low
Reclaim of the 4,172.6 asia high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 4,177 session high
Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC, about 4h away; a hawkish lean could materially shift this read
23:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 53 · price 4,163.68
Late-NY breakout to 4177, Asia fading back below NY high.
Gold absorbed the 12:30 UTC PPI whipsaw, a spike down to 4130 that was bought, then broke the 4168.66 NY high late in the session to a 4177.36 day high as yields slid. Early Asia has drifted back to 4163, below the NY high and near the 38.2% fib of the 4144–4177 leg. That puts the breakout under test, with RSI(14) cooling to about 53.
Support: 4,158.00, 4,143.82
Resistance: 4,168.66, 4,172.64, 4,177.36
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4168.66 NY high restores the breakout read; the 4172.64 Asia high is the first cap ahead of the 4177.36 day high
Failure to hold the 4158 break base (61.8% fib area) turns the move into a false break and reopens the 4144 NY low
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC is high impact; a hawkish tilt could unwind Thursday's rally
23:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 51 · price 4,164.25
Late-NY range breakout, now retesting the old ~4165 range top.
Gold spent most of NY capped inside a 4144–4165 range after the PPI spike. It broke higher late in NY to a late ny high of 4177.4 as yields slid. Early Asia has eased to the 38.2% fib near 4164.5 and is testing the session low and EMA20, with RSI(14) back to a neutral 51.
Support: 4,163.80, 4,157.90, 4,143.80
Resistance: 4,172.60, 4,177.40
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC lands inside this Asian session and could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 4157.9 swing low (near the 61.8% fib) turns the breakout into a false break back inside the range
Close back above the 4172.6 session high reopens the late ny high at 4177.4
Higher lows from 4130 PPI spike; shallow pullback off 4177 high.
Gold cleared the 4160–4168 intraday highs late in NY, tagging the 4177.36 day high as yields slid despite the hot PPI. Early Asia is easing within a 4166.28–4172.64 session range, still above the 4161.75 prior high and EMA20, a shallow pullback inside the 4143.82–4177.36 leg (fib).
Support: 4,166.28, 4,161.75, 4,143.82
Resistance: 4,172.64, 4,177.36, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC, high impact; could materially shift this read
Break of the 4166.28 session low exposes the 4161.75 prior high and the 50% fib near 4160.6
M15 close above the 4172.64 session high reopens the 4177.36 day high, with the 4200 round number above
Loss of the 4143.82 NY low breaks the higher-low sequence from the PPI spike
Late-NY breakout to 4177, now a tight early Asian range below the prior high.
Gold absorbed the PPI-bar spike to 4130.37 and grew higher lows through NY as yields slid. A late-NY breakout above the 4168.66 prior high then ran to a 4177.36 day high. Price has since slipped back under the prior high into a narrow 4167–4173 Asian range. RSI(14) has cooled to ~61, and the 4162.70 breakout shelf sits next to the 38.2% fib.
Support: 4,162.70, 4,143.82, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,168.66, 4,172.64, 4,177.36
What it said to watch
Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (06:30 broker) and could break the Asian range either way
Close back above the 4172.64 asia high and the 4177.36 day high resumes the higher-high chain
Loss of the 4162.70 breakout level and the 50% fib near 4160.60 turns the move into a false break, exposing the 4143.82 ny low
A break of the 4130.37 ppi low unwinds the full day's advance
22:17 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after breakout · RSI 65 · price 4,169.86
Higher low at 4143.82, higher high at 4177.36; tight hold above broken NY high.
Gold broke above the post-PPI prior high at 4168.66 late in NY hours as yields slid, setting a session high at 4177.36 from the 4143.82 NY low. Early Asia is holding a tight 4168.5–4173 band just above that broken level, and RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-60s.
Support: 4,168.50, 4,158.00, 4,143.82
Resistance: 4,177.36, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 4168.5 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 4158 breakout base exposes the 4143.82 ny low, near the 61.8% of the rally fib
Close above the 4177.36 session high opens the path to the 4200 round number
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 4130 into a break above the 4168.66 NY high, now retesting it.
The 12:30 UTC US data bar dipped to 4130 before reversing higher as yields slid despite hot PPI. Higher lows at 4143.82 (ny low) then fed a late-NY breakout above the 4168.66 prior high to a 4177.36 session high, and price is now holding a tight 4168–4171 band on a retest of that level, with the asian high at 4161.75 below.
Support: 4,168.66, 4,161.75, 4,143.82
Resistance: 4,177.36, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Close back below the 4168.66 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the asian high at 4161.75
Break of the 4143.82 ny low and the rising support line ends the higher-low chain
Clearance of the 4177.36 session high opens the path toward the 4200 round number
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC during the Asia session could materially shift this read
21:47 UTC
Uptrend, pausing at highs · RSI 63 · price 4,170.87
Higher lows through NY, breakout above post-data high now retesting.
Gold whipsawed 4130–4159 on the 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales release, then printed higher lows as yields slid despite the hot data. Late NY broke the 4168.66 prior high to a 4177.36 session high, and price is now holding just above that level with RSI(14) cooled to ~63.
Support: 4,168.66, 4,160.60, 4,143.82
Resistance: 4,177.36, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 4168.66 prior high turns the breakout into a false break, exposing the 4160.60 fib 50% of the 4143.82–4177.36 NY leg
Loss of the 4143.82 NY low breaks the NY higher lows chain
Close above 4177.36 session high opens the path toward the 4200 range cap
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows from the 4143.82 NY low; tight consolidation above the broken 4168.66 high.
The 12:30 UTC data release triggered a 4159–4130 whipsaw. Gold then built higher lows off the 4143.82 NY low as yields slid despite the hot PPI, and broke the 4168.66 post-data high late in the NY session to a 4177.36 session high. Price is now holding the breakout level around 4168.5–4171 into the close, with RSI(14) cooling from the high-70s.
Support: 4,168.50, 4,161.75, 4,143.82
Resistance: 4,177.36, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 4168.50 turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the Asian high at 4161.75 (near the 38.2% of the NY low-to-high rally)
Close above the 4177.36 session high reopens the 4200 round number, where gold has repeatedly stalled
Loss of the 4143.82 NY low undoes the afternoon higher-low sequence
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~6h) and could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the US data spike; break above the prior high, now tight consolidation above it.
Late NY, with gold sitting on the day's highs as falling yields outweighed the hot PPI. It broke the 4168.66 post-data prior high to a 4177.36 session high, and is now holding a tight 4168–4171 consolidation on top of the break. Higher lows run 4130 → 4143.82 swing low → 4157.85 higher low, and RSI(14) at ~67 is cooling from the breakout leg's overbought push.
Support: 4,168.50, 4,157.85, 4,143.82
Resistance: 4,177.36, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 4168.5 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 4157.85 higher low near the 61.8% of the breakout leg
Clearance of the 4177.36 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 4200 round number
Loss of the 4143.82 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~6.5h), which could materially shift this read; a thin Asia session into it may keep the consolidation tight
Late NY broke the 4168.66 NY high on sliding yields, printing a 4177.36 session high before stalling. Price is holding a retest of the ny high near 4168.5 into the daily close, with Hammack drawing no visible reaction.
Support: 4,168.50, 4,158.00, 4,143.80
Resistance: 4,177.36, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 4168.5 (ny high) fails the breakout and exposes the 4158 breakout base / 50-61.8% fib
Close above the 4177.36 session high reopens the path toward the 4200 range top
Loss of the 4143.8 swing low breaks the intraday higher-low chain
Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~7h) could reprice hike odds and materially shift this read
Higher lows since 16:00 UTC NY low; broke the post-data high and Asian high.
Late in the NY session gold cleared the 4168.66 data high from the post-PPI swing and the 4161.75 Asia high, printing a session high of 4177.36 as yields slid despite the hot PPI print. RSI(14) near 77 is hot, though not extreme, after the push, and pullbacks since the 4143.82 NY low have held a rising trendline.
Support: 4,168.66, 4,161.75, 4,143.82
Resistance: 4,177.36, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
Failure to hold the 4168.66 data high reopens the 4161.75 Asia high and the NY-leg fib 50% near 4160.
An M15 close below the rising trendline and the 4143.82 NY low breaks the higher-low chain.
The 4200 range top is the next round number above the 4177.36 session high.
20:03 UTC
Uptrend, fresh 24h high late NY · RSI 76 · price 4,177.10
Higher-low chain off 4143.82, breakout above post-PPI high.
Late NY push cleared the 4168.66 post-PPI high to a 4177.36 session high, extending a higher-low chain off the 4143.82 NY swing low as yields slid on equity risk-off. RSI(14) is near 76. The Asian high at 4161.75 lines up with the 50% of the late-NY leg, and the 4200 range top is the next reference above.
Support: 4,168.66, 4,161.75, 4,143.82
Resistance: 4,177.36, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Close back below 4168.66 post-PPI high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the NY higher-lows line and 4161.75 Asian high reopens the 4143.82 NY swing low
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Clean M15 close above the 4200 range top takes price out of the week's range
Higher lows from 4130.37 NY data low, late-NY break above 4168.66.
Late NY pushed through the 4168.66 post-data high to a 4170.38 session high. That extends a higher-low chain from the 4130.37 low printed on the 12:30 UTC PPI/retail sales release, with gold bid on sliding yields despite the hot prints. Price is clear of the 4161.75 Asia high, RSI(14) is near 73 and price sits above both EMAs.
Support: 4,168.66, 4,161.75, 4,143.82
Resistance: 4,170.38, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish lean on October hike odds is the main risk to the bid
A close back below the 4161.75 Asia high would mark the session high break as a false break
A break of the higher-low line, or of the 4143.82 swing low, ends the intraday HL chain; the 38.2% fib of the 4130–4170 leg sits near 4155
Acceptance above 4170.38 opens the 4200 round number, the cited range top
4130–4169 range since Asia; higher lows off NY low, pressing range top zone.
The Asia-session rally from 4100 to 4161.75 set a 4130–4169 range that London and NY have held. The 12:30 UTC PPI/retail sales bar spiked to the 4130.37 ppi spike low, and buyers recovered it as yields slid. Late in the NY session price has built higher lows off the 4143.82 NY low and is pressing the 4161.75–4162.70 Asian high / late high zone, with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 4,152.28, 4,143.82, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,162.70, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4162.70 late high opens the 4168.66 NY high, the top of the day's range
Loss of the 4152.28 higher low (near the fib 50%) returns price to mid-range and toward the 4143.82 NY low
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at Fri 03:30 UTC could reprice October hike odds. The 4130.37 ppi spike low marks the range floor.
19:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since PPI · RSI 62 · price 4,161.12
Higher lows inside 4130–4169 NY range, pressing Asian high.
Late NY session, and gold is pressing the Asian high at 4161.75. The 16:00 UTC swing low at 4143.82 held near the 61.8% fib of the post-PPI move, making it the second of two higher lows. The NY high at 4168.66 still caps the range. Falling yields on equity risk-off drove the rebound from the 4130.37 PPI low despite the hot print, and RSI(14) at 62 is not stretched.
Support: 4,143.82, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4168.66 NY high breaks the session range to the upside
Rejection at the 4161.75 Asian high keeps price inside the 4130–4169 range
Loss of the 4143.82 swing low breaks the higher lows chain and exposes the 4130.37 PPI low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC (Asia session) could materially shift this read
4130–4169 range since Asia; higher lows off 4143.82 into the Asian high.
Gold has held a 4130–4169 range since the Asian session. The 12:30 UTC hot PPI/retail-sales spike swept to the 4130.37 range low and was absorbed as yields fell, while the NY high at 4168.66 was a false break above the Asian high and faded. The late-NY recovery off the 4143.82 swing low has price pressing the 4161.75 Asian high and the 61.8% of the NY fade, RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 4,143.82, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4168.66 NY high breaks the day's range
Rejection at the 4161.75 Asian high / NY fade 61.8% keeps the range intact
Failure to hold the 4143.82 swing low reopens the 4130 range low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
18:47 UTC
Two-way range since PPI, short-term higher lows · RSI 57 · price 4,158.20
Post-data range 4143.8–4168.7; micro HL chain pressing the Asian high.
Hot PPI at 12:30 UTC whipsawed gold through the 4130.4 PPI low before a run to the 4168.7 day high, as falling yields and a softer USD absorbed the data. Late NY has built higher lows off the 4143.8 swing low and is now pressing the 4160–4161 Asian high band, which also sits at the 61.8% of the decline fib.
Support: 4,152.30, 4,143.80, 4,130.40
Resistance: 4,161.00, 4,168.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4161 Asian high opens a retest of the 4168.7 day high
Failure to hold the 4152.3 micro low returns focus to the 4143.8 swing low
Loss of 4143.8 exposes the 4130.4 PPI low
Fed's Hammack 20:30 UTC and Warsh 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
18:33 UTC
Range-bound, higher low in place · RSI 57 · price 4,158.32
4130–4169 range since Asia; higher low at 4143.82, retesting the Asian high.
The 12:30 GMT PPI/retail beats whipsawed gold to a 4130.37 data low, then to a 4168.66 day high as yields slipped. The NY afternoon fade held a higher swing low at 4143.82. Price is back at 4158, pressing the 4160–4162 Asian high cluster with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 4,143.82, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4168.66 day high breaks the range top
Rejection at the 4161.75 Asian high keeps price inside the range
Failure below the 4143.82 swing low exposes the 4130.37 data low and the rising support line
Fed's Hammack 20:30 GMT and Warsh 03:30 GMT Fri could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Two-way, post-data range contracting · RSI 51 · price 4,155.64
Lower highs from 4168.66 session high, swing low holding 4143.8 near the 61.8% fib.
The hot PPI and retail sales prints at 12:30 GMT drove a spike below the London low to the 4130.4 ppi low. That move was fully reversed to a 4168.66 session high as yields slid. Since then, late NY trade has compressed into lower highs, with the swing low at 4143.8 sitting near the 61.8% fib. Price is back above the fib 50% at 4149.5 and just under the 4161.75 asian high, with RSI(14) neutral around 51.
Support: 4,149.50, 4,143.80, 4,130.40
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4143.8 swing low reopens the 4130.4 ppi low
Break above the 4161.75 asian high puts the 4168.66 session high back in play
Failure to hold the fib 50% at 4149.5 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT and Warsh at 03:30 GMT Fri could materially shift this read
18:03 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, NY highs fading · RSI 51 · price 4,154.16
Range 4130–4169, lower highs since 13:15 UTC, compressing.
Gold held its pre-data gains after the hot PPI and retail sales prints. The 12:30 UTC whipsaw set the ppi low at 4130.37. The push through the asian high to the 4168.66 session high failed, and NY has printed lower highs since. The 4143.82 ny low held at roughly the 61.8% retracement of that leg, and price is coiling near 4154 with EMA20/50 flat underneath.
Support: 4,143.82, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4161.75 asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 4168.66 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 4143.82 ny low exposes the 4130.37 ppi low and the Asian range floor
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri (high impact), could materially shift this read
The hot 12:30 UTC PPI print whipsawed gold, sweeping to the 4130.37 PPI low before the 4168.66 session high as yields pulled back. Since then NY has printed lower highs into a 4143.82 swing low after London close. Price is back near 4154, around the 38% level of the PPI swing and still below the 4160.87 Asia high.
Support: 4,143.82, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,160.87, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4160.87 Asia high reopens the 4168.66 session high
Failure to hold the 4143.82 swing low exposes the 4130.37 PPI low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
17:32 UTC
Range, drifting lower from day high · RSI 48 · price 4,148.71
Lower highs since 4168.66, holding above 4143.8 swing low.
The hot PPI print at 12:30 UTC whipsawed gold to the 4130.37 ppi low and then up to the 4168.66 day high. That high was rejected. NY hours have since printed lower highs back into a 4144–4153 band, with price sitting on the 50% retracement of the ppi leg, EMAs flat near 4150 and RSI(14) neutral around 48 after London close.
Support: 4,143.82, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,152.96, 4,160.51, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4143.82 swing low (61.8% of the ppi leg at ~4145) exposes the 4130.37 ppi low
Close above the 4153 lower high reopens the 4160.5 london high and the 4168.66 day high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
17:17 UTC
Post-PPI fade, lower highs into late NY · RSI 42 · price 4,148.05
4130–4168 range since PPI; lower highs from 4168.7, NY low 4143.8 holding.
Hot 12:30 UTC PPI briefly swept the 05:00 UTC low and printed the 4130.4 ppi low, then falling yields lifted gold above the 4161.8 asia high to a 4168.7 ny high. Since then NY has printed a chain of lower highs back to the 50–61.8% retrace of the PPI swing, with the 4143.8 ny low holding at 16:00 UTC. Late NY after London close, price is below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 4,143.80, 4,130.40
Resistance: 4,157.10, 4,161.80, 4,168.70
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4143.8 ny low opens the 4130.4 ppi low
Reclaim of the 4157.1 lower high breaks the post-PPI fade sequence; 4161.8 asia high above
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
The hot 12:30 UTC PPI print swept gold to the 4130.37 ppi low, just under the London low. Price then reclaimed the move and briefly cleared the 4161.75 asian high to a 4168.66 session high as yields eased. Since then a chain of lower highs, most recently 4152.96, has pushed price back under 4150 into late NY, about 56% into the PPI swing, with RSI(14) near 42 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 4,143.82, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,152.96, 4,161.75, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
Close below the 4143.82 swing low opens a retest of the 4130.37 ppi low
Close above the 4152.96 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 4161.75 asian high back into view
Only a reclaim of the 4168.66 session high invalidates the fade read
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 4168.66 session high; swing low 4143.82 holding.
The hot PPI print at 12:30 UTC whipsawed gold between the 4130.37 ppi low and 4159. NY then made a false break above the 4161.75 Asian high to a 4168.66 session high. Since then a chain of lower highs has pulled price back to 4147.75, between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the PPI swing fib, with RSI(14) near 42 and price below EMA20/50 after London close.
Support: 4,143.82, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,152.96, 4,161.75, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4143.82 swing low exposes the 4130.37 ppi low
Close above the 4152.96 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 4161.75 Asian high and 4168.66 session high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
16:32 UTC
Range after overnight rally, highs compressing · RSI 46 · price 4,150.97
Lower highs from 4168.66 into flat 4144 swing low.
The 12:30 UTC hot PPI print wicked gold to a 4130.4 PPI low before NY reclaimed the 4144 swing low and set a 4168.66 day high. Since then, lower highs have compressed price back toward 4144. Price sits under EMA20 and on EMA50 with RSI(14) near 46, boxed between the swing low and the 4160.5 London high.
Support: 4,144.00, 4,132.30, 4,130.40
Resistance: 4,160.50, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4144 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib of the overnight rally at 4132.3 and the 4130.4 PPI low
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the 4160.5 London high reopens the 4168.66 day high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh's speech Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 4168.66 session high within 4130–4169 post-data range.
The 12:30 UTC hot PPI and retail sales bar briefly broke below the 06:00 UTC low to a 4130.37 ppi low, then reversed to a 4168.66 session high early in the NY session as yields slipped. Since then gold has printed a lower high at 4164.81 and sold back to the 61.8% retrace of that swing near 4145. Price sits below EMA20 near 4152 and EMA50, with RSI(14) at 43 and the 4143.82 intraday low under test.
Support: 4,143.82, 4,140.14, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,152.00, 4,164.81, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4140.14 post-ppi low exposes the 4130.37 ppi low
Recovery above ema20 near 4152 eases the lower-high sequence; a close above the 4164.81 lower high breaks the descending trendline toward the 4168.66 session high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Range after NY spike, drifting lower · RSI 47 · price 4,149.46
False break above Asian high, lower highs since session high.
Gold dipped to a 4130.37 PPI low on the hot PPI and retail sales prints, then squeezed to a 4168.66 session high early in NY as yields fell. The break of the 4160.87 Asian high did not hold, and a run of lower highs has since taken price back to 4149, on the 50% retrace of the NY impulse fib. RSI(14) is neutral near 47.
Support: 4,144.13, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,160.87, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4144 NY low, also the 61.8% of the NY impulse fib, exposes the 4130 PPI low
M15 close back above the 4161 Asian high negates the false break and reopens the 4168.66 session high
A break of the lower highs trendline would end the post-high drift
Hammack 20:30 UTC and Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
NY range 4144–4169 compressing beneath the failed break of the Asia high.
Gold whipsawed on the 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales beats, spiking to a 4130.37 data low. The USD fade on lower yields then lifted it to a 4168.66 session high, but price could not hold above the 4161.75 Asia high. NY hours have since printed a lower high at 4164.81 and are compressing toward the 4144.5 pivot low into the London close. Price is sitting near the 50% retracement of the post-data move, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 4,149.44, 4,144.50, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,164.81, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4149.44 swing low puts the 4144.5 pivot low in play; a break there exposes the 4130.37 data low
Close back above the 4161.75 Asia high and the 4164.81 lower high reopens the 4168.66 session high and breaks the lower-highs line
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC (high impact), could materially shift this read
Range 4130–4169 since the Asian rally; NY lower high under session high.
Gold has held a 4130–4169 range since the Asian-session rally. The 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales spike wicked to the 4130.37 range low before demand returned as yields and the USD faded on AI-led risk-off. NY's push to a 4168.66 session high over the 4161.75 Asian high did not hold, and a lower high at 4164.81 has price chopping near 4153 with RSI(14) about 53.
Support: 4,144.88, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,164.81, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4168.66 session high invalidates the false-break read and breaks the range top
Failure to hold the 4144.88 swing low exposes the 4130 range low, near the 38.2% rally fib
Hammack 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:17 UTC
Range after post-PPI recovery, highs stepping lower · RSI 56 · price 4,155.54
NY session range 4145–4169 with lower highs below the day high; range low and Asian high bracket price.
The hot PPI and retail sales spike to the 4130 ppi low was bought back inside the bar. Lower yields and a softer USD absorbed the data, and gold has since held a 4145–4169 range through the NY session. Highs are stepping lower from the 4168.66 day high beneath the 4161.75 asian high, with RSI(14) near 56 and price just above EMA20. The range low sits on the 61.8% of the post-PPI swing.
Support: 4,144.90, 4,130.40
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4145 range low (61.8% of the post-PPI swing) reopens the 4130 ppi low
A close above the lower highs line and the 4161.75 asian high puts the 4168.66 day high back in play
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, now compressing · RSI 56 · price 4,158.30
Higher lows from the 4130 PPI spike, capped below the 4168 session high.
The hot PPI and retail sales release spiked gold to a 4130.4 ppi low, but that break failed and fully reversed. The recovery printed a 4168.7 session high in early NY as yields slid on AI-led risk-off. Price now sits between the 4145 range low and the asian high zone, with higher lows on the rising trendline and RSI(14) neutral at 56.
Support: 4,145.00, 4,130.40
Resistance: 4,161.80, 4,168.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4168.7 session high breaks the NY compression higher
Repeated rejection under the 4161.8 asian high keeps price range-bound
Failure to hold the 4145 range low and the rising trendline exposes the 4130.4 ppi low, near the 61.8% fib
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling into a post-data range · RSI 51 · price 4,156.78
Post-PPI range 4130–4169, lower highs over higher lows.
Gold rallied from ~4105 to the 4161.75 Asian high as risk-off pulled yields lower, then the hot 12:30 UTC PPI whipsawed price to a 4130.37 PPI low and a 4168.66 session high. Since then the NY session has compressed, with a lower high at 4164.81 above a swing low near 4145 that sits on the 61.8% retracement. No close has held above the Asian high, so that break remains a false break.
Support: 4,144.88, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,164.81, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4145 swing low (61.8% fib) puts the 4130 PPI low back in play
Close above the 4168.66 session high breaks the lower-high sequence and the false-break read
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and the Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
14:32 UTC
Two-way range after PPI whipsaw · RSI 52 · price 4,158.24
NY range 4145–4169; spike above Asia high failed back inside.
The hot US PPI print at 12:30 UTC whipsawed gold to the 4130.37 PPI low. NY then pushed through the 4161.75 Asia high to a 4168.66 session high, a false break that reversed straight back inside. Mid-NY, price is ranging 4145–4168, with the 4144.88 higher low sitting near the 61.8% level of the PPI swing fib, and RSI(14) is neutral near 52.
Support: 4,144.88, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4168.66 session high would clear the false break and the asia high cap
Failure to hold the 4144.88 higher low reopens the 4130.37 ppi low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Sideways after the Asia rally, momentum fading · RSI 44 · price 4,147.05
4130–4161 range with a failed NY break above the range cap.
Gold's Asia rally from 4100 has been held inside a 4130–4161 range all London session. The hot US PPI print whipsawed price to a 4130 ppi low, then NY pushed a false break to a 4168.66 session high that failed back under the range cap. Price now sits at 4147, below EMA20/50, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the post-PPI swing, with RSI(14) near 44 and the pre-ppi low at 4144 directly beneath.
Support: 4,144.13, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,160.51, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4144 pre-ppi low puts the 4130 ppi low back in play
Reclaim of the 4160 range cap reopens the 4168.66 session high
Fed's Hammack 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:03 UTC
Range, two-way after data spike · RSI 52 · price 4,154.85
Post-PPI range 4130–4169 inside overnight highs.
The hot 12:30 UTC PPI print spiked gold to the 4130.37 ppi low, a sweep of the 4131.5 London low. The rebound ran to a 4168.66 session high, then slipped back below the 4161.75 asian high in a false break. Early NY now sits mid-range near 4155, between the 4144 pre-ppi low and the asian high. RSI(14) is neutral at 52 and ATR is stretched to about 950 pips after the data, with the 50% fib of the PPI swing at 4149.5.
Support: 4,144.13, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4168.66 session high breaks the post-PPI range
M15 close back above the 4161.75 asian high negates the false break
Loss of the 4144 pre-ppi low and the 50% fib at 4149.5 exposes the 4130 ppi low
Hammack 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:47 UTC
Range after overnight rally, two-way post-PPI · RSI 53 · price 4,155.68
4131–4161 range; PPI spike swept both ends and price is back inside.
An Asia-session rally from 4105 to 4161 settled into a 4131–4161 range through London. The hot PPI print at 12:30 UTC swept down to a 4130.37 PPI low, then reversed to a 4168.66 session high that met rejection. Early in the NY session price sits near 4155, holding the 4150 psych level under the 4161 range top, with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,144.10, 4,130.40
Resistance: 4,168.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4168.66 session high breaks the range top and the post-PPI rejection
Failure to hold 4150 psych puts the 4144 pre-ppi low and the 61.8% retrace of the PPI swing in play
A close below the 4130.4 PPI low invalidates the range read
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
13:32 UTC
Range-bound after Asia rally, volatility elevated · RSI 52 · price 4,156.71
4130–4162 range, both edges probed in early NY.
Gold has held a 4130–4162 range since the Asia rally. The hot 12:30 UTC PPI print spiked price to the 4130.37 ppi low, where buyers absorbed the drop. The 13:15 push through the 4161.75 asian high to a 4168.66 session high then faded back inside, so early NY has swept both range edges. RSI(14) is neutral near 52, and ATR has expanded to roughly 830 pips on the data.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,144.13, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,168.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4161.75 asian high, then the 4168.66 session high, would turn the false break into a range break
Loss of psych 4150 and the 4144.13 london low would expose the 4130.37 ppi low again
Yield rebound on the PPI shock is the main pressure on the range floor
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:17 UTC
Recovering intraday, pressing range top · RSI 57 · price 4,161.53
4131–4162 range since Asia; PPI false break lower reclaimed, upside break in progress.
The hot PPI and retail sales beat at 12:30 UTC spiked gold to the 4130.37 PPI low, a false break of the 4131 Asian-session low, but the drop was fully reclaimed. Early in the NY session price is pushing through the 4161.75 range top to a 4164.01 session high, with RSI(14) near 57 and the post-PPI rebound fib's 61.8% (~4143) aligned with the 4144 post-PPI low.
Support: 4,161.75, 4,144.13, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,164.01, 4,170.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4161.75 range top turns the upside push into a false break and returns price to the range
Failure to hold the 4144 post-PPI low and the 61.8% rebound fib exposes the 4130 PPI low again
Acceptance above the session high puts the 4170 round number in play, the cap flagged in the digest
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:04 UTC
Range after Asia rally, momentum neutral · RSI 48 · price 4,153.62
Inside 4130–4162 range from the Asian session, PPI spike swept the low and recovered.
The hot 12:30 UTC PPI print whipsawed gold through a $29 bar. It swept the 4131 low from the Asian session to 4130.37 (the ppi low), holding just above the 38.2% of the rally fib off yesterday's 4073.55 CPI low, before closing back near 4152 in the first hour of NY. Supply has capped the 4160–4162 asian high three times since the Asian session, and RSI(14) at ~48 sits mid-range with price just above EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 4,144.13, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,170.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4161.75 asian high breaks the range and opens the 4170 pre-cpi high
Loss of 4144 pre-ppi low exposes the 4130 ppi low; a close below it fails the 38.2% rally fib and the range floor
Fed's Hammack 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
12:47 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, post-data whipsaw · RSI 38 · price 4,145.49
4130–4162 range since Asia; flat highs capping the range top.
In the first hour of NY, the 12:30 UTC US data bar swung from 4159 to 4130 before closing 4146. That leaves price mid-range, just under the pre-data low area of 4144 and below the 4155 pre-data hi. Supply has capped 4159–4162 five times since the Asia session high, while the 4130 range low held on the 50% retrace of the Asia rally. RSI(14) is near 38, and the data spike lifted ATR(14) to roughly 660 pips.
Support: 4,144.13, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,154.94, 4,161.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4130 range low breaks the day's structure and the 50% Asia rally fib
Acceptance above the 4155 pre-data hi reopens a test of the 4162 session high and range top
Failure to hold the 4144 pre-data low keeps price leaning toward the lower half of the range
Follow-through in yields/USD from the PPI and Retail Sales release could still extend the whipsaw; Warsh speaks Friday
12:32 UTC
Intraday range after overnight recovery, momentum fading · RSI 44 · price 4,147.91
4130–4162 range; data spike swept below the 4144 swing low and recovered.
The 12:30 UTC US PPI/Retail Sales bar spiked 24 points from 4154.9 to 4130.4. It swept the 4144 swing low and tagged the 61.8% of the Asian leg fib before recovering to 4148. Supply has capped the range twice near 4160–4162, at the Asian high and again at London's 4160.5 high, and the post-CPI rebound noted in the digest is now being tested by the data.
Support: 4,144.10, 4,130.40, 4,111.40
Resistance: 4,154.90, 4,161.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4161.75 Asian high breaks the session range
Close back below the 4144 swing low exposes the 4130.4 data low and the 61.8% of the Asian leg
4154.9 pre-data high is the first cap to clear on any recovery
Yield and USD reaction to the PPI/Retail Sales prints into the NY open may keep ranges well above the 680-pip ATR
Loss of the 4130.4 data low reopens the 4111.4 Asian low
12:18 UTC
Range after CPI-flush recovery, momentum fading · RSI 47 · price 4,148.80
4131–4162 range since Asia; lower highs under the Asia high.
The CPI flush to 4073.55 was fully retraced during the Asia session as yields and the USD eased. Since then gold has held a 4131.5–4161.75 range, with the asia high capping and London printing a lower high at 4158.9. A late-London rejection dropped price to the 4144.1 pullback low, near the 61.8% of the London leg fib, and RSI(14) sits neutral around 47 ahead of the 12:30 UTC US data.
Support: 4,144.10, 4,131.50
Resistance: 4,158.90, 4,161.75
What it said to watch
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~13 min) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 4144.1 pullback low exposes the 4131.5 range low
M15 close above the 4161.75 asia high breaks the range top
Close below the 4131.5 range low reopens the post-CPI downside
London lower high under 4160–4162 session high; rising London HL line broken.
The overnight rebound off 4100 tracked the risk-off slide in yields. London then retested the 4160–4162 session high and stalled, printing a lower high at 4159.27 at 11:00 UTC before slipping through the 4148.5 broken low ahead of PPI. Price sits near the 50% of the 4131.5–4160.5 London leg fib and just above the ema50 around 4141, with RSI(14) at 42.
Support: 4,131.50, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,148.50, 4,161.00, 4,170.00
What it said to watch
12:30 UTC PPI / Retail Sales batch could materially shift this read; bar ranges are likely to expand well beyond the ~520-pip ATR
Failure to hold the ema50 near 4141 and the 4131.5 swing low confirms the break of the London HL line and exposes the 4100 range floor
An M15 close back above the 4148.5 broken low reopens the 4161 session high; a break there brings the 4170 pivot into view
London inside Asian range, three highs capped near 4160.
Gold fully reversed the CPI flush to 4073.5 as yields and the USD slid. The Asia session rally topped at the 4161.75 Asia high. London has stayed inside that range, stalling three times at a triple cap near 4160.5 with marginally lower highs. The 11:30 UTC bar rejected 4158.9 and dropped back to 4150, sitting just above the 4148.5 London low with RSI(14) near 46 and price under EMA20.
Support: 4,148.50, 4,142.60, 4,131.50
Resistance: 4,160.50, 4,161.75, 4,170.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4148.5 london low turns the triple cap into a lower-high sequence, with the 4142.6 61.8% fib of the London leg next.
M15 close above the 4161.75 asia high breaks the range top and opens the 4170 pivot.
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~45 min) could materially shift this read; a hot batch puts the 4131.5 swing low back in play.
11:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under Asia high · RSI 58 · price 4,157.97
Higher lows pressing a flat 4160–4162 cap ahead of US data.
Gold has fully retraced the post-CPI flush as yields and the USD slid. The Asia rally from 4099.95 topped at the 4161.75 Asia high, and its pullback held at the 50% fib near 4131.49. Late in the London session, price is printing rising lows at the 4148.52 higher low and the 4151.86 swing low, while capped at 4160.5 just under the Asia high.
Support: 4,151.86, 4,148.52, 4,131.49
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,170.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4161.75 Asia high breaks the London cap and puts the 4170 intraday pvt in view.
A break below the 4151.86 swing low and the 4148.52 higher low ends the rising-lows sequence.
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read. A hot print risks a return toward the 50% fib at 4131.49.
11:18 UTC
Recovery uptrend, stalling under asian high · RSI 61 · price 4,156.96
Higher lows since London open, tight 4152–4160 consolidation.
Gold has retraced the CPI drop off the 4073.55 low as yields and the USD eased, and is now consolidating 4152–4160 in mid/late London. Supply has capped price twice at the asian high near 4161.75, while London higher lows off the 4131.49 swing low remain intact. RSI(14) sits around 61, with no extreme.
Support: 4,151.86, 4,131.49, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims at 12:30 UTC (~75 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4161.75 asian high opens the path toward the 4200 range top
Loss of the 4151.86 pullback low and the London higher-lows line exposes the 4131.49 swing low, then the 4100 range floor
11:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, compressing under the high · RSI 63 · price 4,158.28
Higher lows capped below the 4161.75 asia high.
Gold retraced the CPI selloff from the 4073.55 low to the 4161.75 asia high as yields eased, then held a 4131.49 swing low before London open. London has built higher lows at 4148.52 and 4151.86, but the 4160.51 high stalled just under the asia high, and price is pressing that cap again late in the London session.
Support: 4,151.86, 4,148.52, 4,131.49
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4161.75 asia high clears the cap and puts the 4200 range top in view
Loss of the 4151.86 and 4148.52 higher lows breaks the London HL chain and exposes the 4131.49 swing low
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~90 min, first hour of NY) could materially shift this read; ATR near 545 pips understates likely data range
10:47 UTC
Recovery uptrend, stalling below Asian high · RSI 58 · price 4,153.44
HL chain off 4131.49, lower high capped under 4161.75.
Gold has erased the entire CPI drop as yields and the USD eased, with price back at the 4155.77 pre-CPI high. London pushed from the 4131.49 pullback low to 4160.51 but stalled just under the 4161.75 Asian high. Price is now coiling 4152–4156 above the 4148.52 swing low, with RSI(14) near 58 and momentum fading.
Support: 4,148.52, 4,146.00, 4,131.49
Resistance: 4,155.77, 4,161.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4161.75 asian high breaks the session cap and ends the consolidation read
Failure to hold the 4148.52 swing low exposes the fib 50% at 4146.0 and the 4131.49 pullback low
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC, under 2h away, could materially shift this read; ATR is near 560 pips per bar
10:32 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below Asian high · RSI 61 · price 4,154.44
Higher lows since London open; capped under 4160–4162.
Gold has fully retraced Wednesday's CPI drop to 4073.55 as yields and the USD eased. Mid-London, the London leg from the 4131.49 London low printed a 4148.52 higher low but stalled at 4160.51, just under the 4161.75 Asian high, and is now holding near the 4155.77 pre-CPI high with a 4152.17 micro low beneath. Of the London leg fib, the 50% sits near 4146.
Support: 4,152.17, 4,148.52, 4,131.49
Resistance: 4,155.77, 4,161.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4161.75 Asian high breaks the rejection read
Loss of the 4148.52 higher low breaks the London higher lows line and exposes the 4131.49 London low
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near 590 pips
10:17 UTC
Uptrend, compressing below Asian high · RSI 66 · price 4,155.24
Higher lows in London, capped under 4161.75.
The CPI-driven drop to 4073.55 has been fully retraced: Asia rallied back through 4100 as US yields and the USD eased, and London has printed higher lows at 4131.49 (swing low) and 4148.52 (london hl) along a rising trendline. Mid-London, price is compressing at 4155–4160 just under the asian high at 4161.75. RSI(14) sits near 66 ahead of US data.
Support: 4,148.52, 4,131.49
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,170.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4161.75 asian high opens the 4170 round number
Break of the 4148.52 london hl and rising trendline exposes the 4131.49 swing low
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at the Asian high · RSI 68 · price 4,156.55
Higher-low chain through London, capped at the Asian high.
Gold has erased the whole CPI drop as yields and the USD ease. London has built higher lows from the 4131.49 swing low to retest the Asian high at 4161.75, which has capped price twice with RSI(14) near 68. Price is holding just above the pre-CPI high at 4155.77, with the London HL at 4148.52 below.
Support: 4,155.77, 4,148.52, 4,131.49
Resistance: 4,161.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4161.75 Asian high breaks the session range to the upside
Failure to hold the 4148.52 London HL ends the higher-low chain
A loss of the 4131.49 swing low brings the 38.2% of the post-CPI rebound (~4128) into play
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 64 · price 4,157.03
Higher lows from 4131.49, testing Asian high.
The London leg off the 4131.49 swing low has built a higher-lows chain and is pressing the 4161.75 Asian high, with the last three bars stalling just beneath it. The rebound extends the fade of yesterday's hot-CPI selloff as US yields and the USD ease. RSI(14) near 64 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 4,148.52, 4,131.49
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,170.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4161.75 Asian high opens the path to 4170 psych
Loss of the 4148.52 London low breaks the higher-lows trendline
Break below the 4131.49 swing low unwinds the London leg
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~2.75h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 4131.49 pre-London low; testing Asian high from below.
Mid-London, gold has fully recovered Wednesday's CPI drop to 4073.55 and is back above the 4155.77 pre-CPI high, helped by easing yields and a softer USD. The London leg built a higher low at 4148.52 off the 4131.49 pre-London low and is now pressing the 4161.75 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 68 and not stretched.
Support: 4,155.77, 4,148.52, 4,131.49
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,170.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4161.75 Asian high opens the 4170 round number and the upper end of the 4,170–4,200 band
Failure to hold the 4148.52 London HL breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 4131.49 pre-London low
Slipping back below the 4155.77 pre-CPI high would mark a rejection at the Asian high
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
09:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below Asia high · RSI 66 · price 4,156.56
Higher lows at 4131/4148, capped 4158–4162.
Gold has retraced the entire hot-CPI drop to 4073.55 as yields and the USD eased. The Asia-session pullback held the swing low at 4131.49, just above the 38.2% of the CPI rebound fib, and London has pressed to 4158.68 without clearing the Asia high at 4161.75. Higher lows at 4131.49 and 4148.52 keep the rising line intact, with RSI(14) near 66 and not stretched.
Support: 4,148.52, 4,131.49
Resistance: 4,158.68, 4,161.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4161.75 Asia high extends the higher-high chain beyond the London high at 4158.68
Failure to hold the 4148.52 London low breaks the rising line and the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 4131.49 swing low puts the 50% of the CPI rebound fib near 4117.6 in view
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read; a hot print risks unwinding the CPI rebound
Higher lows since 4131.49; capped under Asian high.
Gold has erased the hot-CPI drop to 4073.55 as yields and the USD eased. London lifted it from the 4131.49 swing low to a 4158.68 session high, just short of the 4161.75 Asian high. The latest higher low at 4148.52 sits on the 38.2% fib of that London leg, and RSI(14) is around 61, not stretched.
Support: 4,148.52, 4,141.88, 4,131.49
Resistance: 4,158.68, 4,161.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4161.75 Asian high breaks the overnight range top and the pre-CPI area
Loss of the 4148.52 higher low and the higher-low line exposes fib 61.8 at 4141.88, then the 4131.49 swing low
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Recovered post-CPI drop, stalling at range top · RSI 55 · price 4,149.05
Higher lows since 4073.55, lower high at 4158.68 inside 4131.5–4161.8 range.
Gold has retraced the full hot-CPI flush from 4073.55 as USD and yields eased. The post-CPI rally topped at the 4161.75 asian high, and London's push to the 4158.68 london high stalled just below it. That leaves a 4131.5–4161.8 range with rising lows from 4100 still intact.
Support: 4,141.00, 4,131.50
Resistance: 4,161.80
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4161.8 asian high breaks the range top and extends the post-cpi rally
Loss of the 4141 london base exposes the 4131.5 swing low and the rising lows line
US PPI / Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (under 4h) could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 62 · price 4,155.80
Higher lows off the post-CPI low; retesting the Asian high.
Gold has recovered most of the hot-CPI flush to 4073.55 as USD and yields eased. Early London lifted price off a 4131.49 swing low, about a 34% pullback of the post-CPI rally, and price is now back at the 4161.75 Asian high. RSI(14) sits near 62 and the higher-low chain holds above the 4150 psych level.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,131.49, 4,099.95
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4161.75 Asian high breaks the session range and opens 4200 range top
Loss of 4150 psych and then the 4131.49 swing low would break the higher-low chain and the rising support
A slide through the post-CPI fib 38.2% near 4128 exposes the 4099.95 Asian low
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
08:17 UTC
Intraday recovery from post-CPI low, pressing session high · RSI 57 · price 4,152.25
Higher low at 4131.49, London range nested inside Asian range.
Gold has retraced most of yesterday's hot-CPI flush to 4073.55, rallying through the Asia session as yields and USD eased. The pullback from the 4161.75 Asian high found a swing low at 4131.49 just before London. Early London has lifted back above the 61.8% of that pullback to test the 4154.35 London high, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s, well short of stretched.
Support: 4,141.51, 4,131.49
Resistance: 4,154.35, 4,161.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4161.75 Asian high breaks the Asian range top
Loss of the 4141.5 range low turns focus back to the 4131.49 swing low; a break there voids the higher-low read
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
08:03 UTC
Post-CPI recovery, pausing below Asia high · RSI 51 · price 4,145.62
Higher low at 4131.49 above 38.2% fib; capped 4152–4162.
Gold recovered most of the hot-CPI flush during the Asia session as yields eased. It rallied from the 4073.55 low to a 4161.75 Asia high, then early London pulled back to the 4131.49 london low, just above the 38.2% fib. Price is now rebuilding toward the 4152 asia shelf with RSI(14) neutral near 51; the 4111 rally base sits below.
Support: 4,131.49, 4,111.40
Resistance: 4,152.20, 4,161.75
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4131.49 london low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 4111 rally base
M15 close above the 4161.75 asia high resumes the post-CPI higher-high sequence
Repeated rejection at the 4152 asia shelf keeps price in a 4131–4152 range into NY
US PPI / Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~4.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs off Asian high, London low holding above 38.2% fib.
Gold retraced most of the hot-CPI flush to 4073.55 as yields eased in Asia, then saw rejection at the 4161.75 Asian high. Early London dipped to a 4131.49 London low, just above the fib 38.2 retracement at 4128.06, and price is now mid-range between that low and the 4148 range top. RSI(14) sits near 49 with ATR around 630 pips.
Support: 4,131.49, 4,128.06, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,148.00, 4,161.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4148 range top reopens the 4161.75 Asian high
Failure to hold the 4131.49 London low and the fib 38.2 at 4128.06 exposes 4100 psych
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Post-CPI recovery stalling, lower highs since the Asian peak · RSI 50 · price 4,142.54
Pullback held 50% of the Asian rally; early London rebound capped below 4145.
Gold rebounded from the hot-CPI flush to 4073.55 as yields and the dollar eased in Asia. The rally ran to the 4161.75 Asian high, then printed lower highs into a 4131.49 swing low that held near the 50% retracement. London open bounced to a 4144.77 London high, and price is now flat on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 50.
Support: 4,131.49, 4,111.40, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,144.77, 4,152.66, 4,161.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4144.77 london high reopens the 4152.66 lower high and the 4161.75 asian high
Failure to hold the 4131.49 swing low exposes the 4111.40 asia base, where the Asian breakout started, and the 4100 round number
US PPI / Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
Asian rally then lower-high pullback, pullback line broken at London open.
Gold rebounded from the 4073.55 post-CPI low as yields and USD faded the hot print. It peaked at the 4161.75 Asian high, then pulled back to a 4131.49 swing low near the 50% retracement. The first London bar pushed back above the descending pullback line, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and the 4147.9 lower high now overhead.
Support: 4,131.49, 4,123.56
Resistance: 4,147.90, 4,161.75
What it said to watch
A close back below the 4131.49 swing low breaks the 50% hold and exposes the 61.8% fib at 4123.56
Clearing the 4147.9 lower high puts the 4161.75 Asian high back in play
US PPI / Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
07:03 UTC
Pullback within Asia rebound, lower highs · RSI 39 · price 4,137.80
Lower highs/lower lows since Asian high, holding 38.2% fib.
After the hot-CPI flush to 4073, the Asia session rebound from 4100 was rejected at the 4161.75 asian high. Price has since printed lower highs back under the 4150 psych level and sits on the 38.2% fib (~4138) at London open, with the 4131.49 swing low just below and RSI(14) near 39 under EMA20.
Support: 4,131.49, 4,111.00, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,147.80, 4,150.00, 4,161.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4131.49 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 61.8% fib at ~4123.6 and the 4111 asia base where the Asian breakout started
Loss of 4111 reopens the 4100 round number and the 4073 post-CPI low
Recovery above the 4147.8 lower high and 4150 psych would neutralise the pullback; the 4161.75 asian high remains the cap above
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~5.5h) could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Pullback within Asia rebound · RSI 47 · price 4,133.97
Lower highs off the 4161.75 Asian high.
The Asia rebound from the 4099.95 Asian low came as yields and USD retreated from their post-CPI highs. It met rejection at the 4161.75 Asian high, just shy of the pre-CPI 4163.81, and has since printed lower highs under a falling trendline, slipping back below 4150. Late Asia, ahead of London open, price is pressing the 4131.49 pullback low near the 50% fib of the Asian leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 4,131.49, 4,123.56, 4,099.95
Resistance: 4,139.79, 4,147.58, 4,161.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4131.49 pullback low exposes the 61.8% fib at 4123.56, then the 4099.95 Asian low
Close above the falling trendline (~4140) and the 4147.58 lower high breaks the lower-high chain, with the 4161.75 Asian high next
US PPI / Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Pullback within Asia recovery, short-term lower highs · RSI 39 · price 4,138.95
Lower-high sequence off the 4161.75 Asian high, price testing the 38.2% fib.
Asia's rebound from 4099.95 to 4161.75, driven by yields and the USD easing off post-CPI highs, met rejection above 4150. A chain of lower highs has since pulled price back to the 38.2% retracement near 4138, after a 4131.49 session low into the pre-London hour. RSI(14) is near 39, with EMA20 overhead and EMA50 below.
Support: 4,131.49, 4,123.56, 4,099.95
Resistance: 4,147.58, 4,161.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the falling trendline and the 4147.58 lower high reopens the 4161.75 asian high
Failure to hold the 4131.49 session low exposes the fib 61.8 at 4123.56, then the 4099.95 asian low
London open at 07:00 UTC is the first test of whether the Asian range holds
US PPI / Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asian peak · RSI 35 · price 4,133.98
Lower highs and lower lows off 4161.75; 4136–4148 Asian consolidation broken lower.
Gold's Asian rebound from the post-CPI flush was rejected at the 4161.75 Asian high, and a sequence of lower highs near 4148 has pushed price through the 4136 range floor into the fib 50% zone just above the 4131.49 session low. Price is pressing the session low ahead of London open, sitting below EMA20 but still above EMA50, with RSI(14) near 35 and not yet oversold.
Support: 4,131.49, 4,123.56, 4,099.95
Resistance: 4,136.20, 4,147.80, 4,161.75
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4131.49 session low exposes the fib 61.8% at 4123.56, then the 4099.95 Asian low
An M15 close back above the 4136 range floor would mark the break as a false break
A close above the lower highs trendline near 4148 reopens the 4161.75 Asian high
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 4136–4162, price pressing the range low.
The Asia rebound off the 4073.55 post-CPI low, helped by easing yields and USD, was rejected at the 4161.75 asia high at 03:00 UTC. Since then lower highs near 4147 have pushed price back onto the 4136 asia low late in the Asia session, with RSI(14) at 42 and price below EMA20.
Support: 4,136.20, 4,128.06, 4,111.40
Resistance: 4,147.58, 4,161.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4136 asia low opens the 38.2% fib at 4128 and the 4111 rally base
Reclaim of the 4147.58 lower highs and the descending trendline would restore the range read toward the 4161.75 asia high
London open shortly will show whether the Asian range low holds
US PPI / Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high fade from the Asian high, compressing onto the Asian shelf.
Asia's rebound off the post-CPI low stalled at the 4161.75 session high. Lower highs since 03:00 UTC pulled price back under 4150 onto the 4136–4138 Asian shelf, near the 23.6% of the rebound fib. Price sits below EMA20 and above EMA50 heading into the London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 4,136.30, 4,111.40
Resistance: 4,147.80, 4,161.75
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4136 Asian shelf exposes the 38.2% rebound fib near 4128 and the 4111 Asian low
M15 close above the 4148 lower high breaks the lower-high line and reopens the 4161.75 session high
US PPI / Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the 4161.75 Asia high, compressing above 4136.5 swing lows.
Asia session recovered from 4100 to a 4161.75 Asia high as the post-CPI USD spike unwound, but that high was rejected. Price has since printed lower highs and is pressing the 38.2% fib near 4138 about 90 minutes before London open, with swing lows at 4136.5 holding three times overnight. RSI(14) is neutral near 47; price sits under EMA20 and above EMA50.
Support: 4,136.50, 4,130.85
Resistance: 4,148.00, 4,161.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4136.5 swing lows exposes the 50% fib at 4130.85
Close above the 4148 lower highs trendline breaks the pullback structure and puts the 4161.75 Asia high back in play
US PPI / Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
Asia rally rejected at 4161.75, now compressing under lower highs.
Asia session recovered the hot-CPI flush to 4073.55 as USD and yields eased, but the spike to a 4161.75 session high was rejected within a bar. Since then price has compressed between the 4141.5 swing low, near the 23.6% fib of the CPI-low rally, and a line of lower highs capping at 4152.7, with RSI(14) neutral near 56 ahead of London open.
Support: 4,141.50, 4,136.30, 4,128.10
Resistance: 4,152.70, 4,161.75, 4,167.00
What it said to watch
Close below the 4141.5 swing low exposes the 4136.3 asia shelf and the 38.2% fib near 4128
Close above the lower-highs line and 4152.7 lower high reopens the 4161.75 session high, then the 4167 prior high
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read; the CPI bar ranged ~$69
05:04 UTC
Asia recovery stalling below session high · RSI 55 · price 4,146.26
Higher lows above 4136, capped by 4161.75 rejection.
Asia session retraced most of the hot-CPI flush, lifting gold from 4100 to a 4161.75 session high as USD and yields faded. Price was rejected just below the pre-CPI high at 4167 and is now compressing between the 4141.5 swing low and the 4151.4 prior high, sitting just above EMA20 with RSI(14) near 55 ahead of London open.
Support: 4,141.50, 4,136.30, 4,128.10
Resistance: 4,151.40, 4,161.75, 4,167.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4136.3 asia floor breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the fib 38.2 near 4128
Close above the 4161.75 session high reopens the 4167 pre-cpi high
Holding the 4141.5 swing low through London open keeps the consolidation read intact
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h) could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Recovery from post-CPI low, now pausing · RSI 55 · price 4,145.85
Late-Asia consolidation 4136–4161 with rising lows.
Late in the Asia session, gold has retraced nearly the whole hot-CPI drop from 4152 to 4073.55. It reclaimed 4100 and briefly cleared the pre-CPI high at 4155.77 before a rejection at the 4161.75 session high. Price is now compressing between the 4136 asia floor and that high, with a 4141.51 swing low forming rising lows above the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib.
Support: 4,141.51, 4,136.33
Resistance: 4,155.77, 4,161.75
What it said to watch
A close above 4161.75 session high extends the recovery beyond the pre-CPI high
Loss of the 4141.51 swing low and the 4136 asia floor breaks the rising lows and exposes the 50% Asia rally fib near 4131
London open in ~2h is likely to resolve the 4136–4161 range
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 61 · price 4,146.43
Asian HH/HL chain from 4100; pullback holding above 4136 shelf.
Asia has unwound the entire hot-CPI drop, rallying from the 4100 asia low to a 4161.75 asia high above the 4155.8 cpi high, the short-covering snap-back the digest flagged. Rejection at the high has pulled price back to a 4141.5 swing low in late Asia, still above the 4136 asia shelf and EMA20, with RSI(14) near 61 and roughly 950-pip bars.
Support: 4,141.50, 4,136.30, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,155.80, 4,161.75, 4,167.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4136 asia shelf, near the 38.2% fib at 4138, breaks the Asian higher-low chain and exposes the rising trendline
4155.8 cpi high is the first cap after the 03:15 rebound stalled at 4156
Close above the 4161.75 asia high and 4167 prior high clears the full pre-CPI range
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Asia recovery stalling below session high · RSI 53 · price 4,143.48
Lower highs off 4161.75, holding above 4136 shelf.
Asia fully retraced the hot-CPI flush to 4073, rallying from the 4111 rally base to a 4161.75 session high. Supply capped it inside the 4150–4170 band where CPI-day selling began, and the lower high at 4152.5 has followed. Price sits at 4143, just above the 4141.5 pullback low. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and ATR(14) is about $9.30. The asia shelf at 4136, aligned with the 38.2% fib and EMA20 near 4138, is the next floor.
Support: 4,141.50, 4,136.30, 4,111.40
Resistance: 4,152.50, 4,161.75, 4,167.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4136 asia shelf hands back the Asia rally and exposes the 50% fib near 4131, then the 4111 rally base
Close above the 4152.5 lower high reopens the 4161.75 session high and 4167 prior high
Loss of the 4141.5 pullback low extends the lower-high sequence into late Asia, ~3h before London open
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
The Asia session retraced most of the hot-CPI drop, lifting gold from 4111 to a 4161.75 Asia high. The push above the 4151.4 range high met rejection and closed back inside, so price is rotating between the 4136.5 range low and 4151 near the swing low at 4144.6. RSI(14) is neutral near 55, and price sits just under the $4,150–4,170 zone where CPI-day selling began.
Support: 4,144.60, 4,136.50, 4,128.10
Resistance: 4,151.40, 4,161.75, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4151 range high, then the 4161.75 Asia high, puts the 4170 prior high back in play.
A break of the 4144.6 swing low and the 4136.5 range low exposes the fib 38.2 of the post-CPI recovery near 4128.
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; London open lands first, in about 3h.
Higher lows through Asia; breakout from 4136–4152 range now retesting.
Gold has fully retraced the CPI-day drop despite the hot print. The Asia session pushed to a 4161.75 session high, then pulled back to a 4146.48 higher low above the 4136 range base. Price is retesting the 4150 breakout zone where CPI-day selling began, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR(14) at roughly $9.
Support: 4,146.48, 4,136.33
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4146.48 higher low returns price to the 4136–4152 Asian range
Loss of the 4136 range base exposes the post-CPI rally fib 38.2% near 4128
Acceptance above the 4161.75 session high opens the 4170 pre-CPI high
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
V-recovery from 4073.55 post-CPI low; spike to 4161.75 rejected back into 4136–4151 band.
The Asia session rally from the 4111 breakout fully unwound the hot-CPI drop that bottomed at 4073.55. A spike to a 4161.75 session high was rejected straight back inside the 4136.5–4151.4 band, where price is consolidating with RSI(14) near 60. The move puts gold back in the 4150–4170 zone where CPI-day selling began, and the 4170.4 prior high sits just overhead.
Support: 4,136.50, 4,128.10, 4,111.40
Resistance: 4,151.40, 4,161.75, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4151.4 consol high reopens the 4161.75 session high and the 4170.4 prior high
Break below the 4136.5 consol low exposes the fib 38.2 at 4128, then the rally trendline near 4117 and the 4111 breakout base
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off 4099.95 Asian low, through 4155 pre-CPI high.
Asia session has erased the entire CPI-day drop. A HH/HL chain from the 4099.95 low ran through the 4155 pre-CPI high to a 4161.75 session high, with RSI(14) near 71. Price is pausing in the 4150–4170 zone where CPI-day selling began, and it remains well above the old 4100 range floor despite the hawkish repricing in the digest; the 4144 break base and 4136 swing low sit underneath.
Support: 4,144.09, 4,136.33
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 4161.75 session high leaves the 4144 break base exposed; holding it keeps the breakout intact
M15 close below the 4136.33 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the Asia HH/HL chain
38.2% of the Asia rally fib sits near 4138, overlapping the swing low
Acceptance above the 4170.40 prior high clears the CPI-day selling origin
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
Asian range break above 4151, higher lows since the 4073.55 low.
Late Asia session broke the 4136–4151 Asian range top and reclaimed the 4155.77 pre-CPI high, putting price roughly 90% back through the CPI drop with RSI(14) near 78. Overhead is the 4170.40 day high, the top of the 4,150–4,170 zone where CPI-day selling began, despite the hawkish post-CPI macro tone.
Support: 4,155.77, 4,151.38, 4,136.33
Resistance: 4,170.40, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 4170.40 day high would cap the rebound inside the CPI selling zone
M15 acceptance above 4170 opens the 4200 psych level
Close back below the 4151 range top puts price back in the Asian range; loss of the 4136 range low negates the breakout
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Sharp Asia rebound, now stalling · RSI 69 · price 4,145.12
Post-impulse consolidation 4136–4151 under pre-CPI high.
Asia session has unwound almost all of Wednesday's hot-CPI drop. Price broke out from the 4111 breakout lvl and ran from the 4073 low to a 4151 session high, just under the 4155 pre-CPI high where CPI-day selling began. Since then it has consolidated between 4136 and 4151, with the asia low holding three tests and RSI(14) cooling from the low 70s.
Support: 4,136.30, 4,121.70, 4,111.40
Resistance: 4,151.38, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4151 session high and 4155 pre-cpi high opens the 4170 prior-day hi
Loss of the 4136 asia low exposes the 4122 fib 38.2 of the post-CPI rebound, then the 4111 breakout lvl
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
Tight consolidation 4136–4151 with lower highs after Asia rally.
Mid-Asia session. Gold rallied from the 4111 rally base to a 4151.38 session high and has retraced most of the hot-CPI drop to 4073.55, putting price back inside the pre-CPI range. Since then each push has stalled at a lower high, leaving a 4136–4151 consolidation just under the 4150–4170 zone where CPI-day selling began. RSI(14) is cooling to ~65 and the rising lows off the CPI low remain intact well below.
Support: 4,136.33, 4,121.65, 4,111.40
Resistance: 4,151.38, 4,155.77, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4136 range low exposes the 38.2% fib of the CPI low-to-session-high move at 4121.6
Loss of the 4111 rally base would undo the Asia rebound and break the rising lows
M15 close above the 4151.38 session high puts the 4155.8 pre-cpi high and 4170.4 prior high in play
London open in ~4.5h is the first test of whether the Asian range holds
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Recovery from post-CPI low, stalling below session high · RSI 68 · price 4,145.55
Asia breakout above 4112, rejected at 4151, higher low at 4136.
Gold has retraced most of Wednesday's hot-CPI drop from the 4073.55 low. An Asia-session breakout from the 4111 breakout base ran into the 4151–4156 zone where CPI-day selling began, and was rejected at the 4151.38 session high. Price is now rotating between that high and the 4136.33 swing low, RSI(14) ~68, with ATR running near $9.40 per bar.
Support: 4,136.33, 4,111.40, 4,099.95
Resistance: 4,151.38, 4,155.77, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4151.38 session high and the 4155.77 pre-cpi high would open the path toward the 4170.40 prior high
Break below the 4136.33 swing low and the Asian uptrend line would return focus to the 4111 breakout base and 4099.95 asian low
A pullback holding the 38.2–50% fib of the Asian leg (4132–4126) would keep the higher-low sequence intact
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:03 UTC
Post-CPI rebound, stalling below Asia high · RSI 64 · price 4,138.67
Asia breakout above post-CPI range; HH at 4151, now pulling back.
The Asia session broke the post-CPI range top at 4112 and squeezed to the 4151.38 Asia high, retracing much of Wednesday's hot-CPI selloff. Two rejections just under 4151 have price stalling near 4138, back at the floor of the pre-CPI range. The pullback low at 4136.6 is holding for now, with RSI(14) cooling from the low 70s.
Support: 4,136.60, 4,111.86
Resistance: 4,151.38, 4,155.77, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4136.6 pullback low opens the 38.2% fib near 4132, then the 4112 range top
M15 close above the 4151.38 Asia high brings the 4155.77 pre-cpi high and the 4170 prior high into play
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI low at 4073.55, then higher lows. Asia surge capped near 4151 and now pulling back..
The Asia session extended the recovery from the 4073.55 post-CPI low, despite the hawkish repricing. A surge off the 4111.40 surge base at 00:00 UTC ran to a 4151.38 session high, where upper wicks show rejection just below the 4155.77 cpi bar high. Price is now pressing the 4136.60 pullback low with RSI(14) near 66, and the rising lows trendline and fib 38.2 at 4121.65 sit beneath.
Support: 4,136.60, 4,121.65, 4,111.40
Resistance: 4,151.38, 4,155.77, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
Close below the 4136.60 pullback low exposes the fib 38.2 at 4121.65 and the rising lows trendline
Loss of the 4111.40 surge base would erase the Asia breakout
Close above the 4151.38 session high and the 4155.77 cpi bar high opens the path to the 4170.40 prior high
US PPI, Retail Sales and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (~11h away) could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Uptrend off post-CPI low, stalling at 4150 · RSI 73 · price 4,142.49
HH/HL chain from 4073.55, Asian range broken higher, capped at session high.
Gold has retraced most of the hot-CPI flush from the 4073.55 low after the Asia session broke the 4099.95–4111.86 Asian range high at 00:00 UTC. Two upper wicks have formed at the 4151.38 session high, just under the 4155.77 pre-CPI high, and RSI(14) near 73 is cooling. The 4137.29 swing low is the nearest structure, with the 38.2% fib of the post-CPI rally at 4121.65 below it.
Support: 4,137.29, 4,121.65, 4,111.86
Resistance: 4,151.38, 4,155.77, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4155.77 pre-CPI high reclaims the CPI-bar origin and opens the 4170.40 prior high
Break of the 4137.29 swing low puts the fib 38.2 at 4121.65 and the asian high at 4111.86 in play
Rising support from the post-CPI low sits near 4106; a break there ends the HH/HL chain
Thu 12:30 UTC PPI / Retail Sales / claims cluster could materially shift this read
V-shaped recovery of the CPI drop; Asia HH/HL chain pressing into resistance.
Asia session lifted gold off the 4100 range floor to a 4151.38 session high. That retraces roughly 90% of Wednesday's hot-CPI drop and puts price just under the pre-CPI high, where CPI-day selling began. RSI(14) near 77 is overbought; the 4138 swing low held twice on the push, and the 50% fib of the post-CPI rally sits at the 4112 breakout pt.
Support: 4,138.33, 4,111.86, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,151.38, 4,155.77, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4155.77 pre-CPI high opens the 4170.40 prior high
Rejection at the 4151.38 session high with a close below the 4138.33 swing low marks the first lower low of the Asia rally
Loss of rising support and the 4111.86 breakout pt returns focus to the 4100 range floor
US PPI / Retail Sales bundle at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the post-CPI 4073.55 low; early-Asia breakout above 4112 has retraced ~87% of the CPI drop.
Early Asia squeezed gold from the 4112 breakout pt to 4145, back above the 4100 range floor and the pre-cpi low at 4135.87. The move retraces ~87% of the hot-CPI drop off 4155.77. RSI(14) near 80 is stretched and the pre-cpi high sits about 10 dollars overhead.
Support: 4,135.87, 4,112.00, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,155.77, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 4135.87 pre-cpi low would mark the squeeze as a failed retest of the CPI breakdown
Acceptance above 4155.77 pre-cpi high erases the CPI drop and exposes the 4170.40 prior high
Pullbacks holding the 4112 breakout pt and the rising lows line keep the higher-low chain intact; loss of the 4100 range floor restores the post-CPI read
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher; price back above the pre-CPI low inside the CPI-drop zone.
Early Asia session broke the 4100–4112 Asian range with a two-bar surge to a 4143.22 session high. That reclaims the 78.6% fib of the post-CPI drop and puts price back above the 4135.87 pre-CPI low. Higher lows from the 4073.55 post-CPI low are intact, with RSI(14) at 77 stretched and the 4155.77 CPI bar high next overhead.
Support: 4,135.87, 4,111.86, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,143.22, 4,155.77, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 4135.87 (pre-cpi low) returns price to the post-CPI recovery zone, with the 4111.86 asian high as the next shelf
Acceptance above 4155.77 (cpi bar high) erases most of the CPI leg and brings 4170.40 (prior high) into view
Break of the higher-lows line toward 4100 (range floor) would undo the Asia breakout
US PPI, Retail Sales and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 4073.55; Asian range broken higher.
Early Asia breakout: price spiked through the 4112.74 Asia high to 4130, reclaiming the 4100 range floor that hot CPI broke and retracing ~69% of the drop from the 4155.77 CPI high to 4073.55. The rising trendline from the NY low is intact and RSI(14) is near 75, with the 4135.87 pre-CPI low and the 78.6% fib of the CPI drop just overhead.
Support: 4,112.74, 4,106.52, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,135.87, 4,155.77, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
Holding above the 4112.74 Asia high keeps the breakout intact; a slip back to the 4106.52 NY high tests it
An M15 close back below the 4100 range floor or the rising trendline negates the post-CPI recovery read
4135.87 pre-CPI low / 78.6% fib is the first test; acceptance above opens the 4155.77 CPI high and 4170.40 prior high
US PPI and Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 4073.55, back above 4100 in early Asia.
Hot US CPI knocked gold from 4155.77 to a 4073.55 cpi low. Price has since printed a steady higher-low chain along the rising trendline and reclaimed 4100. Early Asia is pressing a fresh session high near the 50% retrace, with the fib 61.8 at 4124 the next cap, and the asian low at 4099.95 holding below.
Support: 4,099.95, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,124.36, 4,135.87, 4,155.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the trendline and 4099.95 asian low breaks the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 4124 fib 61.8 brings the 4135.87 pre-cpi low into view
Loss of 4100 reopens the 4073.55 cpi low
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
4155.77 cpi high marks where the CPI-bar selling began